Jon Cox

Jon Cox (on behalf of Andrew Tsai) inquired about the ONAPGO supply capacity, specifically if the current supplier can meet the high end of the 2026 sales guidance ($70 million) and the data required for FDA approval of a second supplier.

Answer

Jack A. Khattar, President and CEO, confirmed the current supplier is planned to cover 2026 guidance and bridge to the second supplier, expected in 2027. He added that FDA approval for the second supplier would require stability data from new batches, not clinical studies, with an estimated 6-9 month review period.

Jon Cox asked about the current supplier's capacity for ONAPGO sales, specifically if the $70 million high end of the guidance can be met solely by the current supplier or if it requires the second supplier to come online earlier than 2027. He also inquired about the non-clinical data needed for FDA approval of the second supplier.

Answer

Jack A. Khattar (President and CEO, Supernus Pharmaceuticals) confirmed the current supplier can cover the 2026 guidance of $45 million-$70 million and bridge to the second supplier in 2027. He clarified that only stability data and a regulatory package, not clinical studies, are needed for the second supplier's FDA approval, with an expected 6-9 month review.

Jon Cox of Kepler Cheuvreux pressed the new CEO, Peter Feld, on his commitment to financial targets and his ambitions for the company. He also asked for clarification on the drivers of the gross margin improvement, specifically the role of the combined ratio and examples of mix enhancement in food manufacturing.

Answer

CFO Ben De Schryver confirmed the combined ratio is a good proxy for cocoa profitability but also cited improved market conditions and lower supply chain costs. He highlighted that the positive product mix in food manufacturing is driven by continued demand for on-trend items like sugar-reduced and vegan products. CEO Peter Feld reiterated that he is new to the role but is positive about the company's future and focused on identifying areas for improvement.

Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux questioned the differences between the old 'adjusted operating cash flow' and the new 'core EBITDA' metric, its implications for debt covenants, and the potential for share buybacks if the Autogrill deal results in low leverage.

Answer

CEO Xavier Rossinyol clarified that the new core EBITDA is an audited, cleaner metric. CFO Yves Gerster added that while normally close, MAG reliefs caused the two figures to diverge recently. Regarding the Autogrill deal, Rossinyol noted it is accretive even with 100% equity for minorities and stated that any discussion of share buybacks is premature as the immediate focus is on rebuilding the business and executing the new strategy.

Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux asked about the sales level required to return to 2019's equity free cash flow, whether FCF could nearly double at 2019 sales levels due to cost savings, the future of the amortization line post-impairments, and the half-year sales assumptions in the full-year scenarios.

Answer

CFO Yves Gerster estimated that a sales decline of around 30% versus 2019 would allow Dufry to reach a similar FCF level. He confirmed FCF would be significantly higher at 2019 sales levels, with about two-thirds of cost savings flowing through. He also noted that 2020 impairments will lead to lower amortization and higher profitability. For the -40% full-year scenario, he confirmed the assumption is a ~65% sales drop in H1, followed by a stronger H2.

Jon Cox of Kepler Cheuvreux asked about the intended use of the €5.8 billion net cash position, the group's M&A strategy, and whether the strong sales trend seen in the fourth quarter had continued into the new fiscal year.

Answer

Chairman Johann Rupert stated the cash provides a strategic cushion and reiterated a strong preference for organic growth over paying large premiums for acquisitions, noting he passed on Breitling. He refused to comment on current trading. However, CFO Gary Saage clarified that excluding inventory buybacks, the underlying sales trend in the fourth quarter was consistent with the third quarter.

Jon Cox asked for clarification on the loss from discontinued operations, the timing of Hong Kong's difficult comparables, Chinese tourist trends, the Americas outlook, watch capacity adjustments, and the use of cash flow.

Answer

CFO Gary Saage explained the discontinued operations loss related to a higher-than-expected valuation on Net-a-Porter incentive shares. He noted Hong Kong's comps ease from October but remains cautious. On capital allocation, he reiterated the focus on sustained dividend growth over share buybacks and mentioned reinvesting cash into brands for inventory and renovations. He confirmed they are managing watch capacity continuously without plans for factory closures.

Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux asked for clarification on the full-year free cash flow guidance, the potential impact from lower cocoa prices, the dynamics of the cocoa combined ratio, and the long-term outlook for volume growth given the sluggish global chocolate market.

Answer

CEO Antoine de Saint-Affrique addressed the market outlook, stating that despite sluggish confectionery trends, significant opportunities remain in outsourcing and other segments like ice cream. CFO Victor Balli clarified that the free cash flow guidance of CHF 200 million already assumed efficiency gains to keep working capital flat, and that lower cocoa prices would provide a strong positive impact for the full year. He also explained that the cocoa combined ratio's breakeven point has risen due to lower bean prices, and the company's goal is to reduce dependency on this metric over time.