Jon Paul Newsome

Jon Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler inquired about UFG Insurance's strategic adjustments and capital management philosophy in response to an evolving soft market environment.

Answer

CEO Kevin Leidwinger outlined UFG's strategy to deliver superior financial performance and increase relevance with distribution partners by evolving into a specialist, focusing on consistent profitability, diversified growth, talent, innovation, and expense management, targeting a 15% ROE. COO Julie Stephenson added that a significant portion of the core commercial book, underwritten with tighter guidelines since 2023, positions the company well. CFO Eric Martin confirmed no changes to capital management, prioritizing growth capital and the dividend philosophy.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the sustainability of Q4's profitability as a run rate, the impact of social inflation on business appetite between property and casualty lines, and the company's current appetite for its alternative distribution and reinsurance business.

Answer

EVP and CFO Eric Martin confirmed a one-time $3.2 million pretax benefit in Q4 but otherwise viewed the quarter as a solid run rate, despite an elevated expense ratio. EVP and COO Julie Stephenson explained that due to social inflation, the company is shifting its appetite toward less public-exposed casualty risks and actively growing its property portfolio. She also affirmed a strong appetite for their alternative distribution business, particularly in the standard treaty channel, while pulling back from retrocession.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the sustainability of the underlying combined ratio, asking about any one-time factors, and sought details on top-line premium growth drivers, including the split between rate, exposure, and unit growth, as well as product-specific opportunities.

Answer

EVP and COO Julie Stephenson addressed the questions, stating that the underlying loss ratio improvement is sustainable, driven by strong earned rates exceeding loss trends, declining frequency, and stabilizing severity. Regarding top-line growth, Stephenson highlighted broad-based growth across all business units, fueled by rate acceleration in key lines like auto and a strategic focus on larger, more sophisticated accounts through enhanced distribution partner relationships.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler & Co. asked for an explanation of why new TWFG agents take longer to reach productivity compared to other models and questioned the significance of adding GEICO to their carrier portfolio.

Answer

Richard Bunch, an executive at TWFG, explained that their model recruits experienced agents from captive channels who are often bound by non-competes, forcing them to rebuild their client base from scratch. He highlighted the addition of GEICO as 'significant,' as it introduces another competitive national brand that helps stabilize commission rates and provides favorable pricing for customers, thereby improving client retention.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the dynamics between normalizing customer premium retention and new business growth, particularly as more carrier options become available to consumers in various states.

Answer

Executive Richard Bunch explained that the drop in premium retention to its historical average of 88% is a sign of market normalization. As more carriers enter markets, clients have more choices, sometimes opting for lower-priced policies, which reduces retained premium even if the client relationship is kept. He also noted that clients are actively managing costs by increasing deductibles or altering coverage, which contributes to this trend. He confirmed this was an expected development.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler & Co. asked about the potential secondary effects of California's home insurance crisis on the auto market and questioned the outlook for alternative investment income amid market volatility.

Answer

President and CEO Joseph Lacher suggested Kemper is already benefiting from a tighter underwriting environment by multiline carriers in California, creating an opportunity for auto specialists. EVP and CFO Bradley Camden reaffirmed the net investment income guidance of a $105 million quarterly run rate on a rolling basis, expecting it to increase later in the year despite recent lower returns from alternatives.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler asked for the reasons behind the minimal claims impact from California wildfires and questioned if there was a risk of disruption at the agent distribution level due to the market turmoil in the state.

Answer

CEO Joseph Lacher explained the minimal wildfire impact was due to three factors: Kemper has no significant homeowners exposure, its customers generally do not reside in the affluent areas affected, and people tend to drive their cars away from fires. He also stated they are seeing no distribution disruption, as the agents serving their specialty auto customers are distinct from those handling high-net-worth property claims in fire zones, creating no significant business overlap or distraction.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler sought guidance on the future trajectory of net investment income and asked about the competitive impact of residual markets. He also asked for confirmation that Kemper is avoiding the commercial auto severity issues seen elsewhere.

Answer

EVP & CFO Bradley Camden projected quarterly net investment income to run around $105-$107 million and confirmed no significant change in commercial auto severity trends. President of Kemper Auto Matthew Hunton stated that residual markets have not become a significant competitor, though they are monitoring uninsured driver rates.

Jon Paul Newsome asked for an update on the progress of removing non-rate actions and questioned the run-rate for both consolidated net investment income and the Life segment's earnings, considering recent capital shifts and a one-time real estate adjustment.

Answer

Executive Joseph Lacher estimated the company is about three-quarters of the way through removing non-rate actions. Executive Bradley Camden stated that consolidated net investment income should return to its prior run-rate of around $105 million quarterly, as the real estate adjustment was a non-run-rate item. Camden also clarified that the Life segment's annual run-rate earnings are expected to be $15 million to $20 million lower due to capital being moved to the parent company.

Jon Paul Newsome requested more color on the competitive environment, asking about the differences between Florida, the East Coast, and California. He also asked about the shifting dynamics between the admitted and non-admitted (E&S) insurance markets in these states.

Answer

CEO Ernesto Garateix described Florida as having many new entrants, while other states are more stable. He highlighted California as an opportunity for Heritage's E&S business due to admitted carriers leaving the state. Garateix noted that E&S carriers are gaining traction in dislocated markets because of their rate flexibility, leading to a shift of traditional homeowners' policies to the E&S market.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the specific sources of the unfavorable prior-year reserve development, the potential for reinsurance reinstatement premiums related to recent hurricanes, and the possibility of offsetting claim management fees.

Answer

Executive Kirk Lusk clarified that nearly all of the unfavorable reserve development was driven by lingering claims from Hurricane Irma due to the associated legal environment. He also confirmed that potential reinstatement premiums were already factored into the company's latest loss estimates for Hurricane Milton. Regarding claim management fees, Kirk Lusk noted that while some could occur in the fourth quarter, they would not be material.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler inquired about the competitive landscape in the specialty insurance market and requested a detailed explanation of the mechanics behind the prior accident year reserve development from audit premiums.

Answer

CEO Stephen Sills clarified that competition varies by division, with more pressure in Professional Liability and continued opportunities in excess casualty, noting Bowhead doesn't compete in the large company/Fortune 100 market. CFO Brad Mulcahey explained the reserve development is a conservative accounting practice for audit premiums related to prior accident years, ensuring reserves are matched to the correct accident year even if the premium is booked in the current period.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler & Co. inquired about the competitive environment for larger accounts and specialty lines, commercial auto reserve trends, and the competitive landscape in the Excess & Surplus (E&S) market.

Answer

CEO Steve Spray described the commercial market as 'rational and orderly' but acknowledged more competition for larger accounts, which has impacted their Lloyd's syndicate premiums. CFO Mike Sewell reported a minor $7 million reserve strengthening in commercial auto, primarily from older accident years. Spray noted the E&S market trends similarly to commercial lines, with strong new business flow and consistent profitability despite competitive pressures on larger accounts.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the competitive environment in personal lines amid the company's geographic expansion and asked about competitive pressures in commercial lines, specifically for larger middle-market accounts and specialty lines.

Answer

President and CEO John "Jack" C. Roche and COO Richard Lavey described a disciplined personal lines strategy, moving to offense in profitable states while managing Midwest exposures. They noted increased competition from the direct channel but feel their account-based strategy is a key differentiator. For commercial lines, Roche and President of Specialty Lines Bryan Salvatore stated that while good business is always competitive, their diversified, distinctive offerings in small-to-middle market and specialty make them less susceptible to broad pricing pressures, allowing for continued strong growth in areas like marine, E&S, and healthcare.

Jon Paul Newsome asked if the NFP acquisition was accretive to organic growth in the quarter and whether its business mix had a larger impact on the benefits or commercial segments. He also revisited the topic of pricing, asking if Aon is observing differentiated pricing behavior between large accounts and the small-to-mid-market.

Answer

CEO Gregory Case confirmed that NFP contributed to the 5% organic growth but stated Aon will not break out its performance separately, as the focus is on the integrated firm's success and the connectivity between the businesses. On pricing, Mr. Case noted that while similar softening trends exist in the mid-market, they are slightly more muted than in the large account space. He emphasized that macro risks affect all clients and Aon's ability to deliver tailored solutions is key.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about Universal's competitive landscape, growth prospects in Florida versus other states, and the specifics of the 2025-2026 reinsurance renewal, including whether tort reform impacts were reflected in pricing. He also asked about prior period reserve development.

Answer

CEO Stephen Donaghy explained that Universal prioritizes profitable growth over competitive pricing pressures and sees new entrants creating a healthier Florida market. Regarding reinsurance, he noted favorable rates and ample capacity were secured, attributing this to 2022 legislative reforms. CFO Frank Wilcox confirmed there was no prior year reserve development in the quarter, maintaining a conservative reserving posture.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about modeling details for the quarter, including the size of reserve development and the financial impact of catastrophe losses, specifically from Hurricane Milton. He also asked for an update on the company's growth initiatives and its progress on the upcoming reinsurance renewals.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Frank Wilcox clarified that Hurricane Milton was a $45 million net retention event and that prior year reserve development was $45 million, a significant decrease from $76 million in the prior year. Chief Executive Officer Stephen Donaghy explained that growth is focused on profitable markets, leading to a 38.4% increase in other states. He also announced that 92% of the 2025 first event catastrophe reinsurance tower is already placed, with a receptive market and additional multiyear capacity secured for 2026.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the sources of prior-year reserve development, details on catastrophe losses from Hurricane Helene, the timing of claims management revenue recovery, and the outlook for normalized underwriting results given recent pricing and legislative reforms.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Frank Wilcox identified the $2.2 million in favorable development as stemming from prior year catastrophes like Irma and Ian. Chief Executive Officer Stephen Donaghy estimated a combined gross impact of $600-$900 million from recent hurricanes, with a net retention of approximately $111 million for Helene. Donaghy also expressed optimism for future underwriting results, noting that recent reforms allowed for a small rate reduction for Florida policyholders, and stated that recovery of claims expenses may extend into 2025.

Jon Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler asked about the competitive environment in large versus small markets, the rationale for the recent slowdown in share buybacks, and the sustainability of the higher corporate expense level seen in the quarter.

Answer

President and CEO Craig Smiddy addressed the questions, stating they see little difference in competitiveness across market sizes as their large account business is primarily sticky risk-retention programs. On capital management, he explained the $500 million special dividend was a more efficient way to reset their excess capital base, and they will continue to use their buyback authorization opportunistically. Regarding corporate expenses, Smiddy noted the increase was driven by lower investment income and higher performance-based executive compensation, suggesting the current level of quarterly loss in the corporate segment would likely continue through 2025.

Jon Paul Newsome asked about Old Republic's capital management philosophy, the determination of excess capital, and the strategic trade-offs between special dividends and share repurchases.

Answer

Executive Craig Smiddy explained that strong earnings consistently create excess capital, prompting the $2 special dividend for a rapid return to shareholders. He noted that share repurchases remain an opportunistic tool, guided by the stock's price. Smiddy clarified that 'excess capital' is determined not by a single model but by a holistic review of leverage metrics, RBC ratios, and rating agency discussions.

Jon Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler & Co. asked about the competitive pricing landscape, particularly for General Liability, and the potential impact of Selective's aggressive pricing strategy on policy retention.

Answer

CEO John J. Marchioni acknowledged that Selective's GL pricing targets are likely above the market, a deliberate strategy to stay ahead of severity trends which has impacted new business. He noted that policy retention has remained strong and stable at 85%, and while they are willing to accept a slight impact for achieving necessary pricing, their granular approach helps mitigate this risk.

Jon Paul Newsome asked for commentary on the competitive pricing environment, particularly regarding concerns of softening, and how Selective's aggressive rate strategy compares to the market. He also inquired about the potential future impact on policy retention.

Answer

CEO John J. Marchioni acknowledged that Selective's pricing targets, especially in General Liability, are likely above the broader market, which has impacted new business conversion rates. He stated the company has conviction in its pricing to stay ahead of severity trends. Marchioni noted that policy retention has held up well so far, as the overall rate change is applied granularly across the entire policy package, and the company is willing to accept a slight retention impact to achieve necessary pricing.

Jon Paul Newsome sought reassurance regarding future accident year loss picks in light of recent casualty charges and asked if the sequential reserve additions were a direct reaction to quarterly loss emergence.

Answer

John J. Marchioni, Chairman, President & CEO, stated that the 2025 guidance prudently assumes elevated casualty severity trends will continue, which is factored into the expected loss ratios. He affirmed that Selective conducts a full reserve review each quarter, allowing it to react quickly to emerging data and project ultimate losses, a process he contrasted with the industry's slower recognition of past social inflation trends.

Jon Paul Newsome asked if the catastrophe load would have been in a normal range excluding Hurricane Helene and inquired about the nature of the hurricane's losses. He also questioned if the company's business mix would shift more towards property lines going forward.

Answer

John J. Marchioni, Chairman, President & CEO, stated that Hurricane Helene added 7.6 points to the combined ratio, and without it, the quarter's cat load would have been relatively in-line. He noted Helene's impact was widespread and extended far inland. Regarding business mix, he anticipates a slight shift toward homeowners within Personal Lines, driven by higher values and a less crowded competitive landscape in the mass affluent segment.

Jon Paul Newsome asked if the catastrophe load would be in a normal range excluding Hurricane Helene losses and questioned the nature of the hurricane's losses. He also inquired about a potential future shift in the business mix towards property.

Answer

CEO John J. Marchioni confirmed that excluding Hurricane Helene, the quarter's catastrophe load was only slightly above average. He noted Helene's impact was broader than just the coast, with significant wind-driven losses far inland. Regarding business mix, Marchioni anticipates a slight shift towards home within Personal Lines due to higher premiums and a less competitive mass affluent market, but not a significant overall change for the company.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler & Co. inquired about the workers' compensation business, asking about its role as a potential reserve offset and any underlying trends affecting it. He also questioned the company's capital position, specifically regarding operating leverage and the potential need to raise debt to support growth.

Answer

John J. Marchioni, Chairman, President & CEO, explained that workers' comp is now a smaller part of their reserves and that previously favorable frequency trends have leveled off. He also noted that medical inflation is now slightly outpacing wage inflation, leading to a more conservative outlook. Regarding capital, Marchioni stated that while operating leverage may run outside targets temporarily, the company's overall capital position is strong, with a low debt-to-capital ratio providing flexibility, and there are no current constraints on growth.

Asked for color on carrier competition within the Risk & Broking business and its implications. Also asked a modeling question about the sensitivity of the Wealth and Career businesses to financial market fluctuations.

Answer

Executives noted an improving pricing environment (falling rates) for clients, especially in property, which was expected. They feel well-positioned due to their balanced business mix. Regarding market sensitivity, they explained the Wealth business is largely stable due to its dominant, annuity-like Pensions Consulting component, with the smaller Investments business having less equity sensitivity than one might assume due to liability-hedging and a mix of fixed fees.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired if improving conditions in Texas and California were altering the company's geographic expansion strategy and asked for more detail on the drivers of client retention, questioning if it was primarily due to pricing.

Answer

CEO Mark Miller stated that the geographic expansion strategy remains focused on diversification across the U.S. to ensure long-term stability. On retention, both Mr. Miller and CFO Mark Jones Jr. confirmed a strong correlation with pricing stability, noting that clients are far less likely to shop when faced with smaller premium increases, which is a trend they are beginning to see.

Jon Paul Newsome sought to reconcile the 2025 organic growth guidance, which doesn't imply significant acceleration, and questioned whether the company's size now makes achieving 30%+ growth rates unreasonable.

Answer

CFO Mark Jones Jr. clarified that Goosehead expects core revenue growth to accelerate in 2025 over 2024. He explained that the total revenue guidance is moderated by lower forecasts for contingent commissions and cost recovery revenue. He affirmed the company is still actively working towards 30%+ growth through strategic initiatives like middle-market franchises and technology-driven productivity enhancements.

Jon Paul Newsome asked if increased macro uncertainty would alter the M&A outlook and whether recent tort reform in Florida was impacting the reinsurance market.

Answer

President and CEO John Doyle stated that uncertainty does not change their long-term M&A strategy, as they remain an active consolidator focused on cultural fit and value creation. On Florida, Doyle confirmed that while it is still early, the initial signs from the reforms have been positive. He used the opportunity to emphasize the broader need for sensible legal reforms to combat social inflation, which he termed 'legal system abuse.'

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the Workers' Compensation business, asking for more detail on the ability to push for rate increases and whether ProAssurance's view on loss trends differs from the market on frequency or severity.

Answer

President and CEO Edward Rand explained that pushing for rate in Workers' Comp is challenging because rating bureaus continue to indicate rate decreases based on declining claim frequency, which he believes is based on stale data that doesn't adequately factor in rising severity. He clarified that ProAssurance's differing view is primarily on the severity side, as their frequency decline trends have been largely in line with the market.

Jon Paul Newsome asked for additional details on the Workers' Compensation business, specifically regarding the ability to implement rate increases and whether ProAssurance's view on loss trends differs from the market on frequency or severity.

Answer

Edward Rand, President and CEO, explained that pushing for rate in workers' compensation is challenging because rating bureaus continue to issue declining loss cost indications based on backward-looking frequency data. He stated that ProAssurance believes this data is stale and doesn't adequately factor in rising severity. Rand confirmed that the company's differentiated view is more focused on severity trends than frequency, and they will continue to underwrite on an individual account basis to achieve adequate rates, even if it means being an outlier in the market.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler asked for an assessment of the portfolio, questioning what percentage of the Specialty and Workers' Comp business is underperforming its target returns. He also inquired about the potential future trajectory of the expense ratio as profitability improves.

Answer

President and CEO Edward Rand explained that while the physician business performs well, some states and the Specialty Health Care book still require more rate. He characterized the Workers' Comp challenges as broad-based across the market. Regarding the expense ratio, Rand attributed the year-over-year increase to higher incentive compensation and the absence of prior-year employee credits, noting the company is focused on managing expenses amid a shrinking top line but did not provide a specific future target.

Jon Paul Newsome asked two questions: first, about the future effective tax rate now that tax credit impacts are diminishing, and second, whether the current expense ratio is a sustainable run rate.

Answer

Dana Shannon Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer, indicated she would follow up on the specific tax rate but noted the credits' impact has been diminishing. She confirmed the current expense ratio is a reasonable run rate, explaining that higher compensation-related costs are the main driver. Edward Rand, President and CEO, added that the 10-Q provides a tax rate reconciliation.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the assumptions for reinsurance pricing within the 2025 guidance and asked about potential market opportunities for Palomar arising from the disruption in California.

Answer

CEO Mac Armstrong clarified that the guidance conservatively assumes a reinsurance renewal rate ranging from flat to down 5%, despite seeing more favorable pricing at January 1. Regarding California, he identified opportunities in Residential Earthquake and builder's risk due to market dislocation and heightened awareness, but affirmed Palomar would not deviate into new lines like homeowners insurance.

Jon Paul Newsome asked a high-level question about the historical profitability of Palomar's property businesses, questioning if the strategic focus has been on profitability or simply reducing volatility. He also inquired whether the new Crop business serves as a diversifier or adds to existing property exposures.

Answer

Mac Armstrong, Chairman and CEO, clarified that the property book has generally been profitable, with standout performers like Builder's Risk and Excess National Property. He noted that the company actively manages underperforming and more volatile lines, such as the All Risk book, by reducing limits. Jon Christianson, President, explained that the Crop business is an excellent diversifier, as its primary risk (drought) is uncorrelated with the company's other property perils like hurricane and earthquake. Mac Armstrong added that Crop is also uncorrelated with P&C market cycles and that Palomar intends to increase its risk participation in the line starting in 2025.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler asked if AIG has aspirational business areas it might enter via M&A or organic growth, and conversely, if the company is finished divesting noncore assets. He also requested commentary on the evolving regulatory environment, particularly in catastrophe-prone states.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Peter Zaffino stated that AIG is "largely done" with divesting noncore businesses. On M&A, he emphasized a disciplined approach, considering only "compelling" opportunities that add value, but stressed that the company does not need to acquire anything to achieve its growth targets. Regarding regulation, Zaffino acknowledged the complexity of the state-by-state system and noted that current catastrophe models can be flawed, expressing hope that collaboration between insurers and regulators will lead to a "reset" and more flexibility.

Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler asked for more detail on the Specialty Casualty reserve development, specifically which underlying businesses drove adverse development in excess liability and the company's philosophical approach to reacting to changing loss trends.

Answer

Co-CEO Carl Lindner clarified that the adverse development was predominantly from an excess liability unit focused on Fortune 500/1000 clients. CFO Brian Hertzman added that AFG's reserving approach is to react holistically each quarter to new data, adjusting loss picks for recent accident years based on observed severity trends in older years to maintain the most accurate reserve position.

Jon Paul Newsome from JANSON Group inquired about the prospective financial impact of the recent transaction with Core Specialty, questioning its effect on gross premiums, earned revenue, and the unusually low net written premium in the third quarter.

Answer

Executive Chairman and Co-CEO James Petcoff stated the transaction enhances statutory strength by removing high-cost, high-loss-ratio business. Incoming CEO Nicholas Petcoff added that it bolsters surplus and removes a costly book from a reinsurance perspective. CFO Harold MeLoche confirmed the transaction caused a near-term dip in premiums and explained that ceding $30 million in unearned premium led to the low net written premium figure for the quarter.

Jon Paul Newsome of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC inquired about the prospective impact of the Core Specialty transaction on Conifer's financial results, particularly on gross premiums and revenue, and questioned if the transaction caused the unusual variance between gross and net written premiums in the third quarter.

Answer

Executive Chairman James Petcoff explained the transaction enhances statutory strength by divesting a book with high acquisition costs and loss ratios. Incoming CEO Nicholas Petcoff added that it bolsters surplus and removes a costly book from a reinsurance perspective. CFO Harold MeLoche confirmed the transaction directly caused the low net written premium figure in Q3, as approximately $30 million in unearned premium was ceded.

Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the prospective impact of the recent transaction with Core Specialty, asking how it would affect future results, particularly gross premiums, and if it was the cause of the unusual difference between gross and net written premiums in the third quarter.

Answer

Executive Chairman and Co-CEO James Petcoff explained the transaction was a strategic move to delever the company, reduce high acquisition costs, and shed a higher loss ratio book of business, thereby enhancing the statutory strength of the insurance companies. Incoming CEO Nicholas Petcoff added that it bolsters surplus and removes a costly book from a reinsurance perspective, noting a near-term dip in premiums is expected but will be offset by growth in other areas. Harold MeLoche confirmed the transaction caused the Q3 net written premium figure to be unusually low, as it involved ceding approximately $30 million in unearned premium.