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    Jon Paul NewsomePiper Sandler & Co.

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Kemper Corp (KMPR) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Kemper Corp (KMPR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler & Co. asked about the potential secondary effects of California's home insurance crisis on the auto market and questioned the outlook for alternative investment income amid market volatility.

    Answer

    President and CEO Joseph Lacher suggested Kemper is already benefiting from a tighter underwriting environment by multiline carriers in California, creating an opportunity for auto specialists. EVP and CFO Bradley Camden reaffirmed the net investment income guidance of a $105 million quarterly run rate on a rolling basis, expecting it to increase later in the year despite recent lower returns from alternatives.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Kemper Corp (KMPR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler asked for the reasons behind the minimal claims impact from California wildfires and questioned if there was a risk of disruption at the agent distribution level due to the market turmoil in the state.

    Answer

    CEO Joseph Lacher explained the minimal wildfire impact was due to three factors: Kemper has no significant homeowners exposure, its customers generally do not reside in the affluent areas affected, and people tend to drive their cars away from fires. He also stated they are seeing no distribution disruption, as the agents serving their specialty auto customers are distinct from those handling high-net-worth property claims in fire zones, creating no significant business overlap or distraction.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Kemper Corp (KMPR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler sought guidance on the future trajectory of net investment income and asked about the competitive impact of residual markets. He also asked for confirmation that Kemper is avoiding the commercial auto severity issues seen elsewhere.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Bradley Camden projected quarterly net investment income to run around $105-$107 million and confirmed no significant change in commercial auto severity trends. President of Kemper Auto Matthew Hunton stated that residual markets have not become a significant competitor, though they are monitoring uninsured driver rates.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Kemper Corp (KMPR) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked for an update on the progress of removing non-rate actions and questioned the run-rate for both consolidated net investment income and the Life segment's earnings, considering recent capital shifts and a one-time real estate adjustment.

    Answer

    Executive Joseph Lacher estimated the company is about three-quarters of the way through removing non-rate actions. Executive Bradley Camden stated that consolidated net investment income should return to its prior run-rate of around $105 million quarterly, as the real estate adjustment was a non-run-rate item. Camden also clarified that the Life segment's annual run-rate earnings are expected to be $15 million to $20 million lower due to capital being moved to the parent company.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc (HRTG) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc (HRTG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome requested more color on the competitive environment, asking about the differences between Florida, the East Coast, and California. He also asked about the shifting dynamics between the admitted and non-admitted (E&S) insurance markets in these states.

    Answer

    CEO Ernesto Garateix described Florida as having many new entrants, while other states are more stable. He highlighted California as an opportunity for Heritage's E&S business due to admitted carriers leaving the state. Garateix noted that E&S carriers are gaining traction in dislocated markets because of their rate flexibility, leading to a shift of traditional homeowners' policies to the E&S market.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc (HRTG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the specific sources of the unfavorable prior-year reserve development, the potential for reinsurance reinstatement premiums related to recent hurricanes, and the possibility of offsetting claim management fees.

    Answer

    Executive Kirk Lusk clarified that nearly all of the unfavorable reserve development was driven by lingering claims from Hurricane Irma due to the associated legal environment. He also confirmed that potential reinstatement premiums were already factored into the company's latest loss estimates for Hurricane Milton. Regarding claim management fees, Kirk Lusk noted that while some could occur in the fourth quarter, they would not be material.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc (BOW) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc (BOW) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler inquired about the competitive landscape in the specialty insurance market and requested a detailed explanation of the mechanics behind the prior accident year reserve development from audit premiums.

    Answer

    CEO Stephen Sills clarified that competition varies by division, with more pressure in Professional Liability and continued opportunities in excess casualty, noting Bowhead doesn't compete in the large company/Fortune 100 market. CFO Brad Mulcahey explained the reserve development is a conservative accounting practice for audit premiums related to prior accident years, ensuring reserves are matched to the correct accident year even if the premium is booked in the current period.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler & Co. inquired about the competitive environment for larger accounts and specialty lines, commercial auto reserve trends, and the competitive landscape in the Excess & Surplus (E&S) market.

    Answer

    CEO Steve Spray described the commercial market as 'rational and orderly' but acknowledged more competition for larger accounts, which has impacted their Lloyd's syndicate premiums. CFO Mike Sewell reported a minor $7 million reserve strengthening in commercial auto, primarily from older accident years. Spray noted the E&S market trends similarly to commercial lines, with strong new business flow and consistent profitability despite competitive pressures on larger accounts.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Aon PLC (AON) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Aon PLC (AON) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked if the NFP acquisition was accretive to organic growth in the quarter and whether its business mix had a larger impact on the benefits or commercial segments. He also revisited the topic of pricing, asking if Aon is observing differentiated pricing behavior between large accounts and the small-to-mid-market.

    Answer

    CEO Gregory Case confirmed that NFP contributed to the 5% organic growth but stated Aon will not break out its performance separately, as the focus is on the integrated firm's success and the connectivity between the businesses. On pricing, Mr. Case noted that while similar softening trends exist in the mid-market, they are slightly more muted than in the large account space. He emphasized that macro risks affect all clients and Aon's ability to deliver tailored solutions is key.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler & Co. asked about the competitive pricing landscape, particularly for General Liability, and the potential impact of Selective's aggressive pricing strategy on policy retention.

    Answer

    CEO John J. Marchioni acknowledged that Selective's GL pricing targets are likely above the market, a deliberate strategy to stay ahead of severity trends which has impacted new business. He noted that policy retention has remained strong and stable at 85%, and while they are willing to accept a slight impact for achieving necessary pricing, their granular approach helps mitigate this risk.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked for commentary on the competitive pricing environment, particularly regarding concerns of softening, and how Selective's aggressive rate strategy compares to the market. He also inquired about the potential future impact on policy retention.

    Answer

    CEO John J. Marchioni acknowledged that Selective's pricing targets, especially in General Liability, are likely above the broader market, which has impacted new business conversion rates. He stated the company has conviction in its pricing to stay ahead of severity trends. Marchioni noted that policy retention has held up well so far, as the overall rate change is applied granularly across the entire policy package, and the company is willing to accept a slight retention impact to achieve necessary pricing.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome sought reassurance regarding future accident year loss picks in light of recent casualty charges and asked if the sequential reserve additions were a direct reaction to quarterly loss emergence.

    Answer

    John J. Marchioni, Chairman, President & CEO, stated that the 2025 guidance prudently assumes elevated casualty severity trends will continue, which is factored into the expected loss ratios. He affirmed that Selective conducts a full reserve review each quarter, allowing it to react quickly to emerging data and project ultimate losses, a process he contrasted with the industry's slower recognition of past social inflation trends.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked if the catastrophe load would have been in a normal range excluding Hurricane Helene and inquired about the nature of the hurricane's losses. He also questioned if the company's business mix would shift more towards property lines going forward.

    Answer

    John J. Marchioni, Chairman, President & CEO, stated that Hurricane Helene added 7.6 points to the combined ratio, and without it, the quarter's cat load would have been relatively in-line. He noted Helene's impact was widespread and extended far inland. Regarding business mix, he anticipates a slight shift toward homeowners within Personal Lines, driven by higher values and a less crowded competitive landscape in the mass affluent segment.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked if the catastrophe load would be in a normal range excluding Hurricane Helene losses and questioned the nature of the hurricane's losses. He also inquired about a potential future shift in the business mix towards property.

    Answer

    CEO John J. Marchioni confirmed that excluding Hurricane Helene, the quarter's catastrophe load was only slightly above average. He noted Helene's impact was broader than just the coast, with significant wind-driven losses far inland. Regarding business mix, Marchioni anticipates a slight shift towards home within Personal Lines due to higher premiums and a less competitive mass affluent market, but not a significant overall change for the company.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler & Co. inquired about the workers' compensation business, asking about its role as a potential reserve offset and any underlying trends affecting it. He also questioned the company's capital position, specifically regarding operating leverage and the potential need to raise debt to support growth.

    Answer

    John J. Marchioni, Chairman, President & CEO, explained that workers' comp is now a smaller part of their reserves and that previously favorable frequency trends have leveled off. He also noted that medical inflation is now slightly outpacing wage inflation, leading to a more conservative outlook. Regarding capital, Marchioni stated that while operating leverage may run outside targets temporarily, the company's overall capital position is strong, with a low debt-to-capital ratio providing flexibility, and there are no current constraints on growth.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome inquired if improving conditions in Texas and California were altering the company's geographic expansion strategy and asked for more detail on the drivers of client retention, questioning if it was primarily due to pricing.

    Answer

    CEO Mark Miller stated that the geographic expansion strategy remains focused on diversification across the U.S. to ensure long-term stability. On retention, both Mr. Miller and CFO Mark Jones Jr. confirmed a strong correlation with pricing stability, noting that clients are far less likely to shop when faced with smaller premium increases, which is a trend they are beginning to see.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome sought to reconcile the 2025 organic growth guidance, which doesn't imply significant acceleration, and questioned whether the company's size now makes achieving 30%+ growth rates unreasonable.

    Answer

    CFO Mark Jones Jr. clarified that Goosehead expects core revenue growth to accelerate in 2025 over 2024. He explained that the total revenue guidance is moderated by lower forecasts for contingent commissions and cost recovery revenue. He affirmed the company is still actively working towards 30%+ growth through strategic initiatives like middle-market franchises and technology-driven productivity enhancements.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc (MMC) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc (MMC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked if increased macro uncertainty would alter the M&A outlook and whether recent tort reform in Florida was impacting the reinsurance market.

    Answer

    President and CEO John Doyle stated that uncertainty does not change their long-term M&A strategy, as they remain an active consolidator focused on cultural fit and value creation. On Florida, Doyle confirmed that while it is still early, the initial signs from the reforms have been positive. He used the opportunity to emphasize the broader need for sensible legal reforms to combat social inflation, which he termed 'legal system abuse.'

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to ProAssurance Corp (PRA) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to ProAssurance Corp (PRA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked for additional details on the Workers' Compensation business, specifically regarding the ability to implement rate increases and whether ProAssurance's view on loss trends differs from the market on frequency or severity.

    Answer

    Edward Rand, President and CEO, explained that pushing for rate in workers' compensation is challenging because rating bureaus continue to issue declining loss cost indications based on backward-looking frequency data. He stated that ProAssurance believes this data is stale and doesn't adequately factor in rising severity. Rand confirmed that the company's differentiated view is more focused on severity trends than frequency, and they will continue to underwrite on an individual account basis to achieve adequate rates, even if it means being an outlier in the market.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to ProAssurance Corp (PRA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler asked for an assessment of the portfolio, questioning what percentage of the Specialty and Workers' Comp business is underperforming its target returns. He also inquired about the potential future trajectory of the expense ratio as profitability improves.

    Answer

    President and CEO Edward Rand explained that while the physician business performs well, some states and the Specialty Health Care book still require more rate. He characterized the Workers' Comp challenges as broad-based across the market. Regarding the expense ratio, Rand attributed the year-over-year increase to higher incentive compensation and the absence of prior-year employee credits, noting the company is focused on managing expenses amid a shrinking top line but did not provide a specific future target.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to ProAssurance Corp (PRA) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked two questions: first, about the future effective tax rate now that tax credit impacts are diminishing, and second, whether the current expense ratio is a sustainable run rate.

    Answer

    Dana Shannon Hendricks, Chief Financial Officer, indicated she would follow up on the specific tax rate but noted the credits' impact has been diminishing. She confirmed the current expense ratio is a reasonable run rate, explaining that higher compensation-related costs are the main driver. Edward Rand, President and CEO, added that the 10-Q provides a tax rate reconciliation.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the assumptions for reinsurance pricing within the 2025 guidance and asked about potential market opportunities for Palomar arising from the disruption in California.

    Answer

    CEO Mac Armstrong clarified that the guidance conservatively assumes a reinsurance renewal rate ranging from flat to down 5%, despite seeing more favorable pricing at January 1. Regarding California, he identified opportunities in Residential Earthquake and builder's risk due to market dislocation and heightened awareness, but affirmed Palomar would not deviate into new lines like homeowners insurance.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome asked a high-level question about the historical profitability of Palomar's property businesses, questioning if the strategic focus has been on profitability or simply reducing volatility. He also inquired whether the new Crop business serves as a diversifier or adds to existing property exposures.

    Answer

    Mac Armstrong, Chairman and CEO, clarified that the property book has generally been profitable, with standout performers like Builder's Risk and Excess National Property. He noted that the company actively manages underperforming and more volatile lines, such as the All Risk book, by reducing limits. Jon Christianson, President, explained that the Crop business is an excellent diversifier, as its primary risk (drought) is uncorrelated with the company's other property perils like hurricane and earthquake. Mac Armstrong added that Crop is also uncorrelated with P&C market cycles and that Palomar intends to increase its risk participation in the line starting in 2025.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the sustainability of Q4's profitability as a run rate, the impact of social inflation on business appetite between property and casualty lines, and the company's current appetite for its alternative distribution and reinsurance business.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Eric Martin confirmed a one-time $3.2 million pretax benefit in Q4 but otherwise viewed the quarter as a solid run rate, despite an elevated expense ratio. EVP and COO Julie Stephenson explained that due to social inflation, the company is shifting its appetite toward less public-exposed casualty risks and actively growing its property portfolio. She also affirmed a strong appetite for their alternative distribution business, particularly in the standard treaty channel, while pulling back from retrocession.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome inquired about the sustainability of the underlying combined ratio, asking about any one-time factors, and sought details on top-line premium growth drivers, including the split between rate, exposure, and unit growth, as well as product-specific opportunities.

    Answer

    EVP and COO Julie Stephenson addressed the questions, stating that the underlying loss ratio improvement is sustainable, driven by strong earned rates exceeding loss trends, declining frequency, and stabilizing severity. Regarding top-line growth, Stephenson highlighted broad-based growth across all business units, fueled by rate acceleration in key lines like auto and a strategic focus on larger, more sophisticated accounts through enhanced distribution partner relationships.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to American International Group Inc (AIG) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to American International Group Inc (AIG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler asked if AIG has aspirational business areas it might enter via M&A or organic growth, and conversely, if the company is finished divesting noncore assets. He also requested commentary on the evolving regulatory environment, particularly in catastrophe-prone states.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Peter Zaffino stated that AIG is "largely done" with divesting noncore businesses. On M&A, he emphasized a disciplined approach, considering only "compelling" opportunities that add value, but stressed that the company does not need to acquire anything to achieve its growth targets. Regarding regulation, Zaffino acknowledged the complexity of the state-by-state system and noted that current catastrophe models can be flawed, expressing hope that collaboration between insurers and regulators will lead to a "reset" and more flexibility.

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    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to American Financial Group Inc (AFG) leadership

    Jon Paul Newsome's questions to American Financial Group Inc (AFG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jon Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler asked for more detail on the Specialty Casualty reserve development, specifically which underlying businesses drove adverse development in excess liability and the company's philosophical approach to reacting to changing loss trends.

    Answer

    Co-CEO Carl Lindner clarified that the adverse development was predominantly from an excess liability unit focused on Fortune 500/1000 clients. CFO Brian Hertzman added that AFG's reserving approach is to react holistically each quarter to new data, adjusting loss picks for recent accident years based on observed severity trends in older years to maintain the most accurate reserve position.

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