Jonathan Goldman

Jonathan Goldman asked if BRP's base case for next year includes share gains. He also inquired about the potential for gross margin expansion next year, given previous comments about a 50 basis points tailwind and the current industry inventory and promotional environment.

Answer

CFO Sébastien Martel confirmed that BRP's base case for next year does factor in a modest impact from share gains, aligning with the M28 target for modest share gains in the ORV segment. For gross margin expansion, Mr. Martel highlighted key drivers as volume from matching retail with wholesale and cost initiatives (asset utilization, cost efficiency). He expects to continue investing in marketing and anticipates approximately 50 basis points of operational leverage from OpEx, contributing to a base case dividend margin of around 14%.

Jonathan Goldman of Scotiabank asked for a bridge to the second-half revenue growth guidance, questioning the drivers beyond retail/wholesale alignment. He also inquired about the level of new entrants in the industry and the long-term unit volume potential compared to 2019.

Answer

CFO Sébastien Martel attributed the H2 revenue growth to a combination of factors, including favorable product mix and lower sales programs, in addition to volume. CEO José Boisjoli noted that new entrants were at 23% in Q2, back to pre-COVID levels. He believes the side-by-side industry has room to continue growing, not just in North America but also in international markets, which are showing strong growth from a smaller base.

Jonathan Goldman sought to understand the core assumptions behind the potential for top-line growth and questioned the rationale for expecting lower promotional spending given the competitive and consumer environment.

Answer

CFO Sebastien Martel outlined that growth would be driven by ORV wholesale normalization, new products, and pricing. He clarified that BRP's own promotional spending would be lower because it has less noncurrent inventory to clear. While competitors will be aggressive in H1, he expects a more normal environment in H2 after they destock.

Jonathan Goldman inquired whether weaker consumer demand is due to purchase deferrals or an inability to buy, and what level of rate relief might be needed. He also asked if the expected ORV market share gains in season '25 could be similar to this year's levels.

Answer

CEO Jose Boisjoli noted that new entrant levels have returned to pre-COVID norms and that high-end products are significantly outperforming entry-level ones. He also observed more new customers being refused credit. Regarding ORV share, he declined to provide a specific target but expressed confidence that BRP's product lineup will drive continued momentum after the current model-year transition.

Jonathan Goldman of Scotiabank asked for details on how the competitive environment has changed since the previous quarter and what provides confidence that BRP's actions to rightsize production will be sufficient. He also inquired about the level of excess inventory across the broader powersports industry.

Answer

CEO Jose Boisjoli noted that competitors have become more aggressive with promotions and price reductions on new models. He expressed confidence that reducing BRP's inventory will improve dealer turnover and free up their dedicated credit lines, which won't necessarily be filled by other OEMs. CFO Sebastien Martel added that the issue is less about excessive industry inventory and more about dealer caution due to high floor plan interest costs (13-14%), which pressures their profitability.

Jonathan Goldman inquired about the sequential progression of U.S. organic growth after July's high single-digit commentary, the implied Q4 margin guidance suggesting a year-over-year decline, and the current bottlenecks and valuation trends in the M&A market.

Answer

Vito Culmone, EVP and CFO, clarified that U.S. organic growth did not significantly deteriorate after July, noting a strong Q4 2024 comparable and recent buoyancy. He and Gord Johnston, President and CEO, did not expect Q4 margins to be down year-over-year, attributing potential fluctuations to Page integration and cycling a strong prior-year quarter, while maintaining a positive outlook for EBITDA margin expansion. Gord stated there are no M&A bottlenecks, describing a robust environment with varying cycle times, and Vito added that valuations are not an issue for strategic value creation.

Jonathan Goldman inquired about the sequential progression of U.S. organic growth through August, September, October, and November, following a high single-digit callout in July, and if there was any deterioration. He also asked why Q4 margins might be implied to be down year-on-year given business improvements, and about current M&A bottlenecks and valuation trends.

Answer

Gord Johnston, President and CEO, and Vito Culmone, EVP and CFO, clarified that while July's U.S. organic growth was higher, there wasn't significant deterioration in subsequent months, with recent weeks showing more buoyancy. Culmone explained that implied Q4 margin dynamics could be influenced by the Page integration and cycling a strong prior-year quarter, but no significant pullback in margin expansion trends is expected. Johnston stated there are no major bottlenecks in M&A, with a robust environment and varying cycle times, while Culmone noted no major changes in valuations, which are not an issue for strategic value creation.

Jonathan Goldman asked about the risk of pricing pressure in the slower U.S. growth environment and whether M&A valuations have changed.

Answer

President and CEO Gord Johnston stated that the company has not seen any deterioration in pricing and does not anticipate it, given strong underlying demand. He described M&A valuations as stable compared to a year ago, with some premiums for firms in high-demand sectors like power and data centers.

Jonathan Goldman questioned the conservatism in the full-year margin guidance after a strong Q1, asked if M&A sellers were showing any hesitancy, and inquired about the potential impact of U.S. political changes on infrastructure spending.

Answer

Executive Vito Culmone suggested the strong Q1 margin performance indicates the business's pacing but advised waiting for a mid-year guidance update after acquisitions close. Executive Gordon Johnston stated they have seen no hesitancy from M&A sellers, with recent deals closing on schedule. On U.S. infrastructure, Johnston noted that while talks on a future IIJA have slowed, the fundamental need remains immense, and he expects discussions to resume later in the year.

Jonathan Goldman from Scotiabank asked about the specific factors that could push U.S. organic growth to the high or low end of the 2025 guidance and whether the strong Q4 performance level is sustainable.

Answer

Executive Gordon Johnston expressed strong confidence in the U.S. outlook for 2025, citing the nearly 10% annual organic growth in the U.S. backlog. He highlighted that this growth was broad-based, providing a strong foundation for the upcoming year and supporting the mid-to-high single-digit guidance.

Jonathan Goldman from Scotiabank questioned the confidence level in the 14.7 million unit North American production forecast given market headlines. He also asked if the outlook for EVs has changed with new legislation and how that might impact Magna's business.

Answer

CEO Seetarama Swamy Kotagiri expressed confidence in the production forecast, which is based on customer releases and discussions, barring a major dynamic shift. VP of IR Louis Tonelli added that production has exceeded their lowered expectations in recent quarters. On EVs, Swamy noted that while take rates are softer than expected, Magna's flexible powertrain portfolio can address the hybrid uptick, and since the heavy investment in EV platforms is largely complete, a future BEV resurgence would be a tailwind.

Jonathan Goldman from Scotiabank asked whether Magna's North American production outlook assumes any rebuild of vehicle inventories, which have recently seen a decline.

Answer

CEO Seetarama Kotagiri clarified that Magna's production forecast is based directly on customer release schedules, not on broader assumptions about dealer inventory levels. He acknowledged the recent inventory fluctuations but emphasized that their planning is driven by direct OEM demand signals.