Jonathan Pierce

Jonathan Pierce from Jefferies asked if an update on the CET1 ratio target would be provided in February or later, awaiting Basel 3.1 clarity, noting the MDA at 11.6%. He also inquired about the run rate of deferred tax asset (DTA) deduction from capital, its contribution to capital build, and if a similar £300 million recognition of unrecognized DTA is expected in Q4.

Answer

CFO Katie Murray stated that while the bank is actively thinking about appropriate capital targets, she is not committing to a date for changing the 13-14% CET1 target, awaiting Bank of England reviews and the FPC's update. On DTAs, Ms. Murray explained that £800 million remains, with £1.2 billion written back since 2023, and expects Q4 utilization to be in line with Q3, with a slightly lower £100-£150 million per year from 2026 onwards.

Jonathan Pierce from Jefferies highlighted the extraordinarily low impairment metrics and asked if the through-the-cycle charge should now be considered lower, potentially impacting capital targets. He also asked about a significant shift from cash to gilts in the liquidity pool.

Answer

CFO Katie Murray confirmed the shift to gilts was to take advantage of the gilt-swap spread. On impairments, she acknowledged the benign environment but did not formally update the through-the-cycle guidance, though noted performance is at the low end. Regarding the capital target, she stated that it is under constant review and would be re-evaluated once there is final clarity on upcoming regulatory changes like Basel.

Jonathan Pierce sought clarity on the structural hedge, asking where the tailwind post-2026 comes from. He also questioned the capital plan, asking if Barclays could operate at the lower end of its 13-14% CET1 target range in the medium term, which could free up significant capital versus consensus expectations.

Answer

Group Finance Director Anna Cross clarified the structural hedge comment, stating simply that the average yield on the hedge in 2027 will still be below the 3.5% reinvestment rate, providing a continued tailwind. On capital, she affirmed that 13-14% remains the right target range given regulatory uncertainties, and emphasized that the plan is designed to create a bank with both higher returns and higher capital, ensuring consistency for distributions and investment.

Jonathan Pierce from Jefferies asked if Barclays now intends to operate closer to a 14% CET1 ratio, possibly for an acquisition. He also questioned the robustness of IFRS 9 models, given their low sensitivity to severe downside scenarios.

Answer

Executive Angela Cross reiterated guidance to operate in the top half of the 13-14% range, stating high capital generation is an intentional result of the plan, with a focus on organic deployment. Executive Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan added that prudence is warranted. On IFRS 9, Angela Cross clarified the disclosures are sensitivities, not predictive scenarios, and don't capture all dynamic effects like stage migration.

Jonathan Pierce from Jefferies sought clarification on the new preliminary results announcement, asking about its timing and level of detail. He also asked about the structural hedge, specifically how much of 2026 maturities are pre-hedged and the timeline for the post-2026 yield catch-up.

Answer

Executive Director & CFO William Chalmers confirmed the preliminary results will be announced in late January 2026, will be substantially complete, and will resemble the detail of a half-year report. On the structural hedge, he reiterated that over 80% of 2026 income is locked in and clarified that the remaining yield catch-up is expected to materialize through 2027 and much of 2028.

Challenged the low U.K. rate sensitivity guidance (£50 million for a 25bp cut), arguing it seems too low given the scale of hedge maturities. He also asked for clarification on year-end RWA modeling, specifically regarding a potential reversal of a previous BUK RWA increase and the scale of an expected op risk RWA increase.

Answer

The executives defended the low rate sensitivity by highlighting the pickup from reinvesting low-yielding maturing hedges and the programmatic nature of the hedge which dampens volatility. They stated they would have to come back to him on the op risk RWA question.