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    Jonathan Richard Pierce

    banks analyst at Numis

    Jonathan Richard Pierce is a banks analyst at Numis, specializing in the European banking sector and providing coverage of major publicly listed banks across the UK and Europe. His research has influenced institutional investor decision-making and is frequently cited by leading financial publications for insights on bank credit and risk. Pierce joined Numis in the early to mid-2000s and maintains a strong reputation for the depth of his sector analysis, successfully identifying trends through major market events including the Credit Suisse bond write-down. While specific performance metrics such as TipRanks rankings or average returns are not publicly available, he is recognized for his timely and accurate commentary in the sector, and holds senior-level expertise in bank equity analysis.

    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership

    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jonathan Pierce from Jefferies asked about the outlook for AT1 coupon costs and future issuance plans. He also inquired about capital return intentions, including buybacks, and the potential income impact from the bank's RWA optimization efforts.

    Answer

    CFO Katie Murray confirmed the AT1 coupon cost is approximately £100 million per quarter but could not comment on future calls. Executive Paul Thwaite stated that capital returns and buybacks will be reviewed with the Board at half-year and full-year. Regarding RWA optimization, he explained the trades are assessed on a returns basis and are accretive, while declining to specify the income cost.

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    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Jonathan Richard Pierce of Numis pressed on the full-year revenue guidance, asking if the lower end of the GBP 13.0-13.5 billion range could be dismissed given the market now expects fewer rate cuts. He also questioned if consensus NII expectations for 2025-26 are too conservative considering the significant tailwind from the structural hedge.

    Answer

    Executive Paul Thwaite stated that while the bank is increasingly confident in its 2024 guidance, it is not changing the range or 'confining any part to the dustbin' at this early stage of the year. CFO Katie Murray reiterated confidence in income growth through 2026, supported by the structural hedge tailwind, which is key to delivering the greater than 13% ROTE target.

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    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership

    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jonathan Richard Pierce asked for commentary on the net position of non-interest income after operating lease depreciation for the year. He also questioned the confidence in the 2026 outlook, particularly the structural hedge revenue uplift, given recent declines in swap rates.

    Answer

    William Leon Chalmers, an executive, confirmed the expectation that other operating income net of operating lease depreciation would grow at a similar high-single-digit rate as gross OOI. He reiterated strong confidence in the 2026 guidance, including the structural hedge revenue uplift, citing that forecasts are largely locked in and supported by strong deposit performance.

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    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jonathan Richard Pierce sought clarification on the structural hedge's tailwind, asking if the guided maturity figures exclude pre-hedged positions. He also questioned the 2026 outlook, asking if management is confident in achieving a >15% RoTE on a significantly higher TNAV base, even with a 13.5% CET1 ratio.

    Answer

    Executive William Leon Chalmers confirmed that modeling the hedge income from maturity figures alone is difficult due to other factors like pre-hedging. He affirmed confidence in the 2026 >15% RoTE target, even with a materially higher TNAV driven by profits and the cash flow hedge reserve unwind. He also reiterated that this commitment holds true with a 13.5% CET1 ratio.

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    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to BARCLAYS (BCS) leadership

    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to BARCLAYS (BCS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jonathan Richard Pierce followed up on capital, asking if Barclays now intends to operate closer to a 14% CET1 ratio, and questioned the low ECL sensitivity shown in the bank's downside scenarios.

    Answer

    Executive Angela Cross reiterated guidance to operate in the top half of the 13-14% range, stating the high capital level is an intentional result of the plan's success, not a signal for M&A. She clarified that the IFRS 9 sensitivity disclosures are not predictive, as they are based on a static balance sheet and exclude dynamic factors like stage migration and management actions. Executive Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan added that capital prudence is expected in the current environment.

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    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to BARCLAYS (BCS) leadership • Q3 2023

    Question

    Inquired about the specific components of the 7 basis point 'other' drag in the U.K. NIM bridge, and asked whether the strong growth in Tangible Net Asset Value (TNAV) puts the medium-term >10% RoTE target at risk.

    Answer

    The 'other' drag on U.K. NIM was a mix of small product-related items with no single significant driver. The significant TNAV increase was largely due to a reversal in the cash flow hedge reserve from interest rate movements. The focus for RoTE remains on generating profits, and future targets will be discussed in February, stripping out such quarter-to-quarter volatility.

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    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to BARC.L leadership

    Jonathan Richard Pierce's questions to BARC.L leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Jonathan Richard Pierce questioned the mechanics of the structural hedge yield, the basis for consensus 2026 RoTE and TNAV figures, and the rationale behind setting what he described as an 'extremely aggressive' 14% RoTE target in the new LTIP.

    Answer

    Group Finance Director Angela Cross affirmed the hedge maturity yield figure is accurate and that TNAV is expected to grow from profit accretion and buybacks. CEO Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan explained that LTIP targets are set by the Board and typically include a 'stretch' element to incentivize management, which is standard practice.

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