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Josef Schachter

Research Analyst at SER

Josef Schachter is the President and Founder of Schachter Energy Research, specializing as a seasoned energy sector analyst with over 40 years of experience in the Canadian investment industry. He delivers independent equity research focused on Canadian oil and gas companies, helping subscribers make informed decisions and notably being the first analyst in Canada to forecast the 2014 oil price collapse. Schachter led oil and gas research at Maison Placements Canada for 15 years until 2017 and was previously Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields prior to establishing Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation, is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts, and is recognized for his frequent industry commentary and conference speaking engagements.

Josef Schachter's questions to GRAN TIERRA ENERGY (GTE) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Josef Schachter of Schachter Energy Research Services Inc. requested a timeline for achieving the upside production potential in Ecuador and asked for insight into the factors that could push production to the low or high end of the company's guidance range.

Answer

CEO Gary Guidry projected a 2-to-3-year timeline to reach plateau production in Ecuador, with the pace being dictated by oil price volatility. He identified global commodity prices as the primary variable influencing the guidance range. COO Sebastien Morin added that existing environmental licenses provide the necessary flexibility for this development.

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Question · Q1 2025

Josef Schachter from Schachter Energy Research Services Inc. asked for the timeline and well count required to achieve the upside production potential in Ecuador. He also requested clarity on the scenarios that would lead to the low or high end of the full-year production guidance, given the strong start to the year.

Answer

President and CEO Gary Guidry projected a 2-to-3-year timeline to reach plateau production in Ecuador, with the pace dictated by oil price volatility. He identified commodity prices, especially for natural gas, as the primary variable influencing the guidance range. COO Sebastien Morin added that existing environmental licenses provide the necessary flexibility for this development.

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Question · Q1 2025

Josef Schachter of SERSI questioned the timeline for achieving the upside production potential in Ecuador and asked for details on the scenarios that could lead production to the high or low end of the full-year guidance range.

Answer

President and CEO Gary Guidry projected a 2-to-3-year timeline to reach plateau production in Ecuador, with the pace dependent on oil prices. He also identified commodity prices, particularly for natural gas, as the main variable that will influence where production lands within the guidance range, noting the company will adjust its capital program accordingly.

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Question · Q4 2024

Josef Schachter asked about the allocation of free cash flow between debt reduction and share buybacks, the political outlook in Ecuador, the potential for the 2025 program to stabilize Colombian production, and what actions could be taken to address the stock's valuation discount.

Answer

EVP and CFO Ryan Ellson stated that excess free cash flow would be split 50/50 between debt reduction and share repurchases. President and CEO Gary Guidry expressed confidence in a continued business-friendly government in Ecuador. COO Sebastien Morin affirmed he is comfortable that the 2025 program can maintain Colombian production levels. Finally, Gary Guidry reiterated that continuing to buy back shares is the primary tool to address the stock's discount to NAV.

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