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    Joseph Greff

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    Joseph Greff is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at J.P. Morgan, specializing in Gaming and Lodging sector coverage with a focus on companies such as Red Rock Resorts and Caesars Entertainment. He covers a portfolio of 43 stocks, has delivered an average return per transaction of 6.40%, and maintains a 48% success rate on his stock recommendations as tracked by TipRanks. Greff began his analyst career at Bear Stearns and transitioned to J.P. Morgan following the firm's acquisition, where he has consistently ranked No. 1 in his field according to Institutional Investor’s All-America Research Team over multiple years. His credentials include FINRA registration and relevant securities licenses, highlighting a strong regulatory and professional background.

    Joseph Greff's questions to DraftKings (DKNG) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to DraftKings (DKNG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a comparison of spending patterns between new and existing users, the key variables differentiating the high and low ends of the 2025 guidance, and whether recent sports outcomes impacted handle.

    Answer

    CEO Jason Robins stated that newly acquired users behave similarly to recent cohorts. He identified the customer acquisition environment as the biggest variable in the 2025 guidance range. Regarding handle, he explained that while there's a marginal impact from customer wins, it's not significant enough to be built into their assumptions, as betting levels tend to remain stable.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to Red Rock Resorts (RRR) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to Red Rock Resorts (RRR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff asked about any onetime impacts during Q3, the performance of the portfolio excluding Durango and its cannibalization effect, drivers for margin changes, and the expected financial impact from renovations in 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Stephen Cootey stated there were no unusual items beyond normal seasonality. He explained that after accounting for Durango's contribution and cannibalization, the core portfolio's revenue was down in the low single digits. Cootey attributed the margin decline to cannibalization, seasonality, and minimum wage increases, and quantified the estimated 2025 EBITDA disruption from renovations at approximately $22.8 million total across three properties.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to PENN Entertainment (PENN) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to PENN Entertainment (PENN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the strategy for the New York market, specifically regarding promotional spending in relation to handle. He also inquired if the strong Q4 land-based slot volume growth was broad-based or concentrated in a few markets.

    Answer

    CEO Jay Snowden stated that Penn will remain disciplined on promos in high-tax New York, focusing less on handle market share. He noted that excluding New York, handle growth was strong and organic. Head of Operations Todd George confirmed the recent retail volume strength was broad-based across the portfolio, excluding markets facing new competition.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to WYNN RESORTS (WYNN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff inquired about the competitive environment in Macau, asking if reinvestment pressures have eased since the summer and whether post-Golden Week demand trends indicated any notable improvement.

    Answer

    CEO Craig Billings characterized the competitive landscape in Macau as 'stable to slightly better' but emphasized that it remains 'very competitive.' Regarding post-Golden Week trends, Billings stood by his prepared remarks highlighting a strong October but declined to provide additional intra-quarter guidance, stating the company feels 'fine with where we are in Macau.'

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    Joseph Greff's questions to CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL INC /DE (CHH) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL INC /DE (CHH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff asked about the company's long-term growth algorithm, seeking to understand how closely EBITDA growth correlates with the compounding effect of RevPAR and net unit growth, independent of reimbursable fund fluctuations.

    Answer

    CFO Scott Oaksmith affirmed that the core algorithm of rooms growth, royalty rate, and RevPAR remains the primary EBITDA driver, but emphasized the growing importance of ancillary fees. CEO Patrick Pacious added that a "multiplier effect" from higher-value new units, international growth, and Radisson synergies enhances this core algorithm.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ (MAR) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ (MAR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff from JPMorgan asked for the expected timeline to realize the $80-90 million in G&A savings and whether the 2024 investment spending level is a reasonable proxy for 2025.

    Answer

    CFO and EVP, Development Leeny Oberg clarified that the full $80-90 million in annual G&A savings is expected to be realized beginning in 2025, off the current year's cost base. She also agreed that 2025 investment spending should be lower, as the 2024 forecast includes non-recurring items like the $200 million Sheraton Grand Chicago purchase and a $50 million land purchase.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to Hyatt Hotels (H) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to Hyatt Hotels (H) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for details on the revised net rooms growth guidance and the potential EBITDA contribution from the new Grupo Pineiro joint venture.

    Answer

    President and CEO Mark Hoplamazian attributed the lower net rooms growth outlook to construction project slippage and higher-than-usual attrition, but affirmed confidence in the long-term growth momentum. He and CFO Joan Bottarini stated that detailed financials for the new JV would be provided after closing, but noted that Hyatt will realize incremental revenues from its distribution platforms in addition to management fees.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to MGM Resorts International (MGM) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to MGM Resorts International (MGM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the softness in Las Vegas table game volume, particularly baccarat, and its implications for future quarterly EBITDA and margins. He also sought specifics on baccarat's contribution to table drop.

    Answer

    Jonathan Halkyard, an executive, attributed the weak table game drop to the timing of high-end baccarat play rather than broad market normalization, reaffirming a mid-30s EBITDAR margin target for Las Vegas. CEO William Hornbuckle added that excluding top baccarat players, gross profit from the rest of the database was up 12%. Executive Corey Sanders specified that baccarat constitutes about 30% of the year-to-date table drop.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to Caesars Entertainment (CZR) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to Caesars Entertainment (CZR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff asked if future noncore asset sales would be smaller in scale than the recently announced World Series of Poker and LINQ Promenade deals. He also inquired about the early performance of the new Horseshoe iCasino brand, its impact on the existing Caesars Palace app, and the expected EBITDA split between iCasino and Online Sports Betting (OSB) within the long-term $500 million target.

    Answer

    CEO Tom Reeg stated that other potential noncore asset sales are more complex and have longer timelines but could be sized between the Promenade ($275M) and World Series of Poker ($500M) deals. Eric Hession, President of Caesars Sports and Online Gaming, noted the Horseshoe launch is performing well, successfully converting customers without cannibalizing the existing app. Tom Reeg added that the $500 million digital EBITDA target is expected to be split roughly 50-50 between iGaming and sports betting.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to BOYD GAMING (BYD) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to BOYD GAMING (BYD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff asked for a more precise definition of the Las Vegas Locals segment's performance relative to the market, excluding the Orleans and Gold Coast properties, and inquired about the expected capital commitments for the upcoming year, including the Virginia development.

    Answer

    President and CEO Keith Smith clarified that they estimate the same-store market declined by low-to-mid single digits, and Boyd's comparable properties performed better than that, declining in the low single digits. EVP and CFO Josh Hirsberg estimated that 2025 capital spending, excluding Virginia, would be similar to 2024's level (around $400M), with an additional spend for the Virginia project preliminarily estimated around $150 million for the year, pending finalization.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS (WH) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS (WH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff inquired about Wyndham's confidence in exceeding its current net rooms growth rate next year, the composition of that growth, and the specific U.S. RevPAR assumptions for economy and midscale brands embedded in the Q4 outlook.

    Answer

    CEO Geoffrey Ballotti expressed high confidence in future net rooms growth, citing a record pipeline of 250,000 rooms, strong domestic deal execution, and growth in new construction brands like ECHO Suites. CFO Michele Allen added that the Q4 outlook reflects lapping easier comps from last year, momentum from infrastructure business, and a favorable holiday calendar, with potential upside from recent hurricane relief efforts.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to LAS VEGAS SANDS (LVS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff asked about the drivers behind the quarter-over-quarter decline in Macao's contra gaming revenues and sought commentary on the better-than-expected market performance in October following Golden Week.

    Answer

    President and COO Patrick Dumont and Sands China CEO Grant Chum attributed the revenue trend to enhanced cost discipline and a strategic focus on competing via product quality rather than promotions, despite significant room inventory disruptions. Patrick Dumont declined to comment on the current quarter but noted the high quality of visiting tourists and the positive impact of entertainment offerings.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff asked about the feasibility of Hilton's 2025 EBITDA target of $3.69 billion, set during its March Investor Day, in a potential 1-2% RevPAR growth environment.

    Answer

    President and CEO Christopher Nassetta stated that while it's early for formal 2025 guidance, he feels good about the outlook. He expects 2025's same-store growth to look a lot like 2024's, driven by a resilient macro environment, strong group demand, and continued business transient recovery, while leisure normalizes. Nassetta expressed confidence that the company's growth algorithm (same-store growth plus net unit growth) will remain 'alive and well' for 2025.

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    Joseph Greff's questions to Travel & Leisure (TNL) leadership

    Joseph Greff's questions to Travel & Leisure (TNL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Greff asked if the company is implementing higher down payment requirements for consumers in the sub-700 FICO score range and questioned the outlook for Las Vegas tour flow in Q4 after weakness in Q3.

    Answer

    CFO Michael Hug confirmed the company will look for higher down payments across the board in Q4 to mitigate portfolio risk, not just for sub-700 FICO scores. CEO Michael Brown acknowledged Q3 weakness in Las Vegas new owner tours, consistent with broader market trends, but stated the company expects a reacceleration of tour growth in Q4 and remains confident in achieving full-year targets.

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