Joseph Nolan

Joseph Nolan asked about the price versus volume dynamics within the CCM segment, details on price/cost in Q3 2025, and the outlook for price/cost into Q4 2025.

Answer

Chris Koch, Chair, President, and CEO, stated that pricing and volume were both flat for the CCM segment in Q3. He noted a $12 million negative impact from raw materials (ATO and PCPP), in line with expectations. Kevin Zdimal, CFO, added that Q4 price/cost is expected to be similar, with CCM pricing flat and raw material impact slightly lower due to reduced Q4 volumes.

Joseph Nolan, representing Longbow Research, inquired about the breakdown of price versus volume in the CCM segment for Q3 and requested details on the price/cost dynamics during the quarter, further asking for the price/cost outlook for Q4.

Answer

Chris Koch, Chair, President, and CEO, stated that pricing and volume were both flat in the CCM segment for Q3. He noted that raw material impacts, specifically from ATO and PCPP, resulted in a negative $12 million, which was in line with expectations. Kevin Zdimal, CFO, added that for Q4, CCM pricing is expected to remain flat, with raw material impacts slightly lower due to seasonal volume reductions.

Joseph Nolan from Longbow Research asked about channel inventory levels for key roofing products, confidence in a recently announced polyiso price increase, and whether weather-related volume impacts would be recovered in the second half.

Answer

CEO D. Christian Koch stated that channel inventory levels are on the lighter side but have been consistent. He expressed low confidence in the polyiso price increase gaining traction, forecasting flat pricing for the second half. Regarding weather, Koch noted that a constrained contractor labor market makes it unlikely that delayed work would be fully recovered quickly, with demand instead rolling into existing backlogs.

Joseph Nolan asked about the fourth-quarter impact of plant consolidation inefficiencies during the transition and the net impacts expected for 2026.

Answer

CEO David Foulkes estimated a couple of million dollars in Q4 impact due to operating four facilities, with at least two at lower efficiency. He stated that while there will be a net positive impact in 2026, it won't be the full $10 million run-rate savings, which will be realized upon full completion, hopefully earlier than mid-2026. He emphasized that the long-term prize is well worth it, with benefits increasing substantially at higher production volumes.

On behalf of David MacGregor, Joseph Nolan asked about the factors driving growth in the Marine segment despite a soft market and requested an update on the progress of the next significant Auto OEM program.

Answer

President and CEO Clifton Pemble stated that while the marine market has faced uncertainty, demand for Garmin's products has been stable, driven by innovation, differentiation, and market share gains. Regarding the Auto OEM program, he confirmed it is progressing well, with the company currently validating its global production lines to support the new design for the 2026 launch.

Joseph Nolan, on for David MacGregor, inquired about the progression of margins throughout the year, specifically if there would be a lag in Q2 from mitigation actions. He also asked for more detail on the timing of promotions that affected the Marine segment's Q1 results.

Answer

CFO Doug Boessen acknowledged that Q2 results will have many "puts and takes," including the timing of tariff implementation, the sell-through of non-tariffed inventory, and the rollout of mitigation efforts. CEO Cliff Pemble clarified that the Marine segment's Q1 performance was impacted by a shift in the timing of a major promotional event with a national retailer, which occurred in Q1 of 2024 but shifted to Q2 in 2025.

Joseph Nolan, on for David MacGregor, asked about the factors driving ORV share gains and the outlook for product mix in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Michael Speetzen attributed ORV share gains to Polaris's innovative products like the Expedition and Ranger 1500, which lack direct competitors, and a more level playing field as competitors' inventory improves. CFO Robert Mack projected that product mix in the second half would be 'flat to up a little bit' and less of a headwind than in Q2, as the company is now past the initial channel fill of its newer, high-end models.

Speaking on behalf of David MacGregor, Joseph Nolan from Longbow Research asked for the company's view on the price-cost dynamic for the second half of the year and trends in various cost buckets. He also questioned whether the company has observed any demand elasticity in the non-residential market related to the implementation of tariff surcharges.

Answer

SVP & CFO Mike Wagnes stated that Allegion will continue to use pricing and productivity to cover cost pressures and expects the dynamic to be breakeven to slightly positive for the full year. President & CEO John Stone confirmed that no demand elasticity has been observed, noting that non-residential project activity remains strong and customers continue to operate in a short lead time, book-and-ship environment.

Joseph Nolan, on for David MacGregor, asked for a breakdown of the gross margin decline, separating the impact of product mix versus pricing and cost pressures, and for an outlook on these factors.

Answer

Executive Michael McLamb attributed the consolidated gross margin decline to two primary factors: approximately two-thirds was due to lower boat margins (pricing pressure), and one-third was from a negative mix shift, as a higher percentage of revenue came from lower-margin boat sales. He indicated that the company's guidance for the next quarter already assumes a continued promotional environment.

Joseph Nolan from Longbow Research asked for additional detail on the company's outlook for its international end markets in 2025.

Answer

CFO Jonathan Root reviewed 2024 performance, noting challenges in China and Japan but strength in Australia and New Zealand, while Europe saw weakness in Germany but solid performance in Spain, Portugal, and Italy. For 2025, he stated the overall global view is flat, which applies to international markets as a whole. He did mention an expectation for slight growth in the Asia Pacific region but reiterated the overall flat guidance for the international business.

Joseph Nolan of Longbow Research requested more detail on the company's retail sales outlook for its various international end markets in 2025.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Jonathan Root recapped the mixed performance in 2024, noting challenges in China, Japan, and Germany, with strength in Australia/New Zealand and parts of Southern Europe. For 2025, he stated that the overall global outlook is 'pretty flat,' and this expectation generally applies to international markets as well, though he noted an expectation for slight growth in the Asia Pacific region.

Joseph Nolan, on behalf of Longbow Research, requested an outlook for Harley-Davidson's various international end markets for the upcoming year.

Answer

CFO Jonathan Root indicated that the overall global outlook for 2025 is flat, which applies to international markets as well. Looking back at 2024, he noted mixed performance, with challenges in China and Japan, but strength in Australia and New Zealand. In Europe, Germany was challenged while markets like Spain, Portugal, and Italy were solid. For 2025, he expects slight growth in Asia Pacific but a generally flat environment internationally.