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    Joseph Spak

    Research Analyst at UBS Group AG

    Joseph Spak is an Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group AG, specializing in the Consumer Goods and Auto sectors. He covers major automotive and technology companies including Mobileye, Volkswagen, Volvo AB, Gentex, TRW Automotive, Johnson Controls, Metaldyne Performance Group, Harman International, and Rivian, with recent calls such as a Buy rating on Mobileye producing returns above 42% and a standout Buy rating on Adient yielding over 218%. Ranked #3,499 out of 4,869 analysts on performance platforms, Spak has delivered a 47.88% success rate and covered 46 stocks with UBS since joining the firm after previous roles in equity research; his track record includes over 264 ratings and participation in significant price target adjustments. He is registered with FINRA and holds relevant securities licenses, recognized for his incisive analysis and accurate market forecasts.

    Joseph Spak's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group AG inquired about the production cadence for GM's T1 platform in the second half of the year, considering announced downtime, and the potential impact of GM onshoring T1 capacity for AAM, including opportunities from the Dolly acquisition.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Christopher May confirmed the full-year T1 production assumption of 1.3 to 1.4 million units, noting a strong first half and that the second half would follow normal seasonality with some minor Q3 downtime. Chairman & CEO David Dauch added that AAM has the flexibility to support GM's production shifts to the U.S. and expects the Dolly acquisition to provide even more flexibility and potential content gains on the T1XX programs.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group AG inquired about the production cadence for GM's T1 platform in the second half of 2025 and the potential impact of GM onshoring T1 capacity to the U.S., including content opportunities for AAM post-Dallee acquisition.

    Answer

    CFO Christopher May confirmed the full-year T1 production forecast of 1.3 to 1.4 million units, noting a normal second-half cadence despite minor Q3 downtime. CEO David Dauch affirmed AAM's flexibility to support GM's U.S. production shift and stated the Dallee acquisition will enhance this flexibility and create opportunities for content gains on the T1XX platform.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak inquired about American Axle's strategy for future contingencies, including its excess capacity in the U.S., plant utilization rates, potential labor challenges, and the tariff exposure for its pending acquisition target, Dowlais.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO David Dauch confirmed AAM has open capacity in its Three Rivers facility and others, with a general goal of 85% utilization but maintaining flexibility. He noted the labor situation has improved but may require more automation if jobs return to the U.S. EVP and CFO Chris May added that Dowlais has a similar manufacturing footprint to AAM, and the combined entity would have greater scale to navigate tariff issues, though he could not comment on Dowlais' specific stand-alone exposure.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak inquired about the new business backlog, asking how the dynamic of fewer large awards but more program extensions might affect net business attrition compared to prior years. He also asked for a reminder of how steel tariffs impacted AAM in the past and what mitigations are in place.

    Answer

    CEO David Dauch stated that annual attrition is expected to be on the lower end of the typical $100M-$200M range and that program extensions, while positive, are not included in the new business backlog but would reduce attrition. CFO Chris May explained that AAM's 'buy and source local' strategy, combined with contractual commodity pass-throughs covering 80-90% of changes, largely mitigates tariff impacts.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to CarGurus (CARG) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to CarGurus (CARG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS Group sought clarification on the financial details of the CarOffer wind-down, including the breakdown of cash versus non-cash charges and the nature of the $1 million in quarterly costs being absorbed. He also asked for an updated perspective on Amazon's competitive threat following its expansion into used cars.

    Answer

    CEO Jason Trevisan detailed the $14-19 million in wind-down charges, breaking them into one-time restructuring costs, near-term operational burn, and non-cash charges, confirming the absorbed $1 million quarterly expense is recurring. Regarding Amazon, both Trevisan and President and COO Sam Zales reiterated their confidence in CarGurus' competitive moats, such as dealer trust, data advantages, and a superior user experience for a complex, emotional purchase. Zales added that dealer feedback on Amazon's initiative indicates low volume so far.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to CarGurus (CARG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Zachary Walljasper, on behalf of Joseph Spak, asked about the mechanics of CarGurus' pricing model, particularly with longer-term contracts, and requested an assessment of consumer health and dealer activity versus 90 days prior.

    Answer

    President and COO Sam Zales explained that pricing is based on value delivered (lead volume and quality), not seasonality, giving them leverage due to their #1 ROI ranking. He noted QARSD grows via new dealer pricing and annual reviews of existing accounts. Zales described the Q3 used car market as stronger than typical but noted that dealers rely on CarGurus most in weaker periods, like a typical Q4.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Cars.com (CARS) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to Cars.com (CARS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group asked for clarity on the revenue cadence for the second half of the year, sought details on whether OEM growth is a near-term or long-term tailwind, and requested management's view on Amazon's increasing presence in the used car market.

    Answer

    CFO Sonia Jain clarified that revenue growth will accelerate into Q4, as the benefits of repackaging and new dealer additions fully accumulate. She also confirmed OEM revenue is expected to be a tailwind in the second half of 2025, not just a 2026 story. CEO Alex Vetter acknowledged Amazon as a potential threat but emphasized Cars.com's deep vertical integration and strong brand as durable advantages, noting that dealer feedback suggests Amazon has gained little traction so far.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Cars.com (CARS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak questioned the company's near-term visibility and decision to suspend guidance, given that the majority of revenue is subscription-based. He also asked if it was plausible for OEM and National revenue to decline for the full year and requested a reminder of the revenue split between new versus used cars.

    Answer

    CFO Sonia Jain explained that while the subscription business is stable, discrete shifts in the more volatile media and OEM revenue can significantly impact overall results, reducing certainty for a specific guidance range. She affirmed confidence in achieving year-over-year growth in both dealer and OEM revenue. CEO Alex Vetter stated that while not broken out, revenue mix mirrors the market, with 15-20% tied to new cars. Jain added that independent dealers constitute about one-third of the marketplace mix.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Cars.com (CARS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak questioned the cadence of the 2025 margin guidance, asking why Q1 margins are guided to be significantly lower before ramping up through the year. He also requested an update on dealer adoption of AI solutions beyond chatbots and the company's annual investment in AI.

    Answer

    CFO Sonia Jain attributed the lower Q1 margin guidance to the Q4 dealer revenue exit rate and significant investment in the DealerClub integration, with margins expected to ramp seasonally as back-half weighted growth initiatives take hold. CEO Alex Vetter discussed AI pilots that have lifted dealer appointment rates by 20% by handling lead volume, but stated it was difficult to quantify a dedicated AI investment as the goal is to embed AI pervasively across the business.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Cars.com (CARS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak's office asked about the business impact from recent hurricanes, AccuTrade adoption trends, and any changes in dealer sentiment toward adding services amid higher inventories.

    Answer

    CEO Alex Vetter stated that while hurricanes caused a temporary regional dip in traffic, it was followed by a record rebound in demand. He noted a durable trend of dealers prioritizing sourcing cars from private sellers for higher profitability, which is driving strong interest and adoption of AccuTrade regardless of overall inventory levels.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Adient (ADNT) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to Adient (ADNT) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group AG inquired about the specifics of Adient's onshoring business wins, the net opportunity from the potential 600,000 units returning to the U.S., and whether the company's strong business performance would continue as a tailwind into fiscal year 2026.

    Answer

    Jerome Dorlak, President, CEO & Director, confirmed that the recent Nissan and other Asian OEM onshoring wins represent net new incremental revenue of $150-200 million. He clarified the 600,000-unit opportunity is business Adient does not currently have, positioning the company as a net beneficiary. Mark Oswald, EVP & CFO, added that positive business performance is expected to be a tailwind into 2026, with overall production volumes being the primary variable.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Adient (ADNT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group AG inquired about Adient's tariff mitigation efforts, seeking clarity on the difference between the 75% 'resolved' and 25% 'roadmap' portions, and asked about the drivers of EMEA's strong quarterly performance.

    Answer

    President and CEO Jerome Dorlack explained that the 'roadmap' for tariff mitigation involves a mix of ongoing price negotiations and component resourcing actions. EVP and CFO Mark Oswald noted that EMEA's strong Q2 performance was lumpy and not indicative of a new trend, with the region's profitability expected to remain similar to last year until a significant inflection in fiscal 2026.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Adient (ADNT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS sought clarification on the timing and savings of European restructuring charges and asked about the strategic plan for unconsolidated joint ventures in China, particularly as Chinese OEMs expand globally.

    Answer

    Mark Oswald, EVP and CFO, clarified that the potential $145 million in restructuring is a multi-year possibility, not a fiscal 2025 charge. Jerome Dorlack, President and CEO, stated that future growth in China and with localizing Chinese OEMs will be driven by Adient's wholly-owned and consolidated entities, not the unconsolidated JVs. He affirmed that the unconsolidated JVs remain valuable assets that provide significant equity income and strategic insights into key customers like BYD.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak sought clarification on policy-related headwinds, asking what specifically worsened on tariffs and how much regulatory credit revenue was baked into the 2027 EBITDA target. He also asked at what utilization level the Normal, IL plant needs to be before commissioning the Georgia plant.

    Answer

    CFO Claire McDonough clarified that the tariff impact outlook has not changed from the prior quarter; the new headwind is entirely from a reduced regulatory credit forecast. She declined to quantify the original 2027 credit assumption. CEO RJ Scaringe stated that construction on the Georgia facility is planned to begin in early 2026, positioning it to support R2 platform variants and overall capacity expansion.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked for an explanation of the significant quarter-over-quarter decline in depreciation and amortization within COGS and how to forecast it. He also questioned if Q1's overproduction would minimize the full-year tariff impact and how the current tariff estimate compares to the previously guided "several hundred million" policy impact.

    Answer

    CFO Claire McDonough explained that the lower COGS depreciation was due to producing more vehicles than delivered, causing more depreciation to be absorbed into inventory on the balance sheet. She noted depreciation will pick up with the R2 launch. She also clarified that the "several hundred million" impact was a broader basket including tariffs, consumer benefits, and credits, and that the Q1 inventory build will help offset some tariff impacts in later quarters.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak sought clarity on the 2025 positive gross profit target, the timing of regulatory credit revenue recognition, and the rationale for increasing van production in Q4.

    Answer

    CFO Claire McDonough clarified the target is for a positive gross profit for the full-year 2025, not every quarter, and confirmed credit revenue is recognized upon transfer to the counterparty. She explained that van and Tri-Motor production is increasing in Q4 to maximize output, as these variants only require one Enduro motor, thus mitigating the ongoing supply constraint.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS Group inquired about the drivers behind the full-year organic growth guidance, particularly the impact of battery sales, and questioned the company's capital allocation strategy regarding its high cash balance and the pace of deployment.

    Answer

    CEO Joseph Fadool explained that lower battery sales in the BCF segment created a headwind for full-year outgrowth. CFO Craig Aaron addressed capital allocation, stating the company is focused on a disciplined and consistent return of cash, targeting a similar level of share repurchases in Q3 and Q4 as seen in Q2, while maintaining a liquidity target of 20% of sales.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked for a breakdown of the over $200 million tariff impact, which seemed high relative to previous disclosures, and inquired about the company's plans for deploying its cash balance, particularly regarding share buybacks.

    Answer

    CEO Joseph Fadool explained that the guidance includes all known tariffs and is considered manageable. He noted that the impact includes both direct tariffs on imports and indirect costs passed on from suppliers. Executive Craig Aaron stated that with a strong balance sheet and expected free cash flow of $700 million, the company will continue to evaluate all capital allocation levers, including opportunistic share repurchases, to create shareholder value.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked for clarity on the North American market outlook, the 2025 eProducts forecast, and the new CEO's perspective on inorganic growth and M&A.

    Answer

    CFO Craig Aaron confirmed the market outlook includes headwinds from potential tariffs. CEO Joseph Fadool stated that while organic investment is the top priority, the company will continue to evaluate acquisitions thoughtfully, viewing current industry turbulence as a unique opportunity. A specific 2025 eProducts outlook was not provided, but it will be disclosed in future 10-Q filings.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak inquired about the path to profitability for the battery and charging segment, asking if it was primarily dependent on filling its newly completed capacity. He also asked if returning nearly all free cash flow to shareholders represents a new capital allocation strategy.

    Answer

    Executive Craig Aaron explained that profitability for the battery business hinges on scaling revenue, which will lead to breakeven and beyond as it grows from its current ~$200 million quarterly run-rate. He confirmed the capacity build-out is complete. Regarding capital allocation, he expressed satisfaction with the 2024 deployment but deferred specific commentary on 2025 until the next earnings call.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Aptiv (APTV) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to Aptiv (APTV) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS sought clarification on the nature of the Q2 demand pull-forward, the reason for the significant margin step-up from Q3 to Q4, and the dynamics of winning business with local Chinese OEMs.

    Answer

    CEO Kevin P. Clark explained the demand pull-forward was likely a mix of both consumer vehicle purchases and OEM production scheduling. He attributed the Q4 margin improvement to the timing of cost-saving benefits and traditional back-end loaded engineering recoveries. Regarding China, he noted the rapid 6-9 month award-to-launch cycle and the strength of Aptiv's localized operations.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Aptiv (APTV) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked for clarification on the full-year outlook, questioning if the second-half uncertainty is purely volume-related rather than tariff impact, and what markers Aptiv is watching. He also inquired about the potential relocation of high-value production to the U.S., asking what product types this might involve and the potential capital costs.

    Answer

    CEO Kevin P. Clark confirmed that the company has a handle on the direct impact of tariffs, which they consider manageable and will pass on to customers. He stated the second-half uncertainty is entirely about vehicle production volumes, which hinge on consumer demand and OEM pricing. Regarding U.S. production, Clark noted it is early but would involve highly automatable products from the ASUX or ECG segments, not wire harnesses, likely leveraging existing U.S. footprint initially.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Aptiv (APTV) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked about other areas of conservatism in the 2025 outlook beyond North American production and questioned the company's contingency planning for potential tariffs and its coordination with OEMs.

    Answer

    CEO Kevin P. Clark identified a more conservative outlook for EV growth (guiding 10%+ revenue vs. a 20% market forecast) as another area of caution. He stated that North American growth over market is driven by new program launches and schedule normalization. On tariffs, he confirmed strong coordination with OEMs, including near-term plans for inventory deployment and leveraging duplicate manufacturing capabilities to mitigate potential disruption.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Aptiv (APTV) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked for clarification on the Signal and Power Solutions (SPS) segment's sequential margin decline, attributing it to labor intensity, and questioned the reasons behind the lowered full-year bookings forecast.

    Answer

    CEO Kevin P. Clark explained the margin pressure was due to idle labor from sudden and severe customer production cuts, stating they have now proactively reduced capacity. Regarding bookings, he noted that while the pipeline is strong, some large program award decisions in North America and Europe have been prudently delayed into early 2025.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to FORD MOTOR (F) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to FORD MOTOR (F) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked about Ford's lobbying position and desired outcomes from the USMCA tariff negotiations, particularly given the potential relative disadvantage. He also sought clarification on the scale of reduced compliance credit purchases and the potential profit tailwind.

    Answer

    CEO James Farley stated Ford is advocating for simplified tariffs to reduce its $2 billion net liability and sees the new tariffs on competitors as an opportunity. CFO Sherry House clarified that compliance credit expenses are running at about $200 million per quarter. Farley emphasized the most significant financial impact will come from optimizing the vehicle mix, which he described as a multi-billion dollar opportunity.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to FORD MOTOR (F) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked what Ford needs to see to reinstate guidance and how the broader regulatory environment beyond tariffs impacts powertrain investment and the Model e strategy.

    Answer

    CFO Sherry House clarified they will provide an update, not necessarily reinstate guidance, in Q2, pending clarity on policy, customer reactions, and competitive dynamics. CEO James Farley emphasized the critical importance of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for its U.S. investments and believes Ford is well-positioned due to its government engagement.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to FORD MOTOR (F) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked for clarification on the 2025 free cash flow guidance drivers and the assumed distribution from Ford Credit. He also inquired about how Ford plans to market Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs) to create consumer pull.

    Answer

    CFO Sherry House explained the free cash flow reduction is due to lower EBIT and increased working capital, with the guidance remaining in the target 50-60% conversion range. She expects the Ford Credit distribution to be 'equal or greater' than the past year. CEO Jim Farley described the EREV strategy as offering customers an affordable EV experience in larger vehicles without range anxiety, noting that users of similar products consider them EVs, not hybrids.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to FORD MOTOR (F) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak questioned the 40-50% free cash flow payout ratio, asking how prospective risks like warranty uncertainty and pricing downturns are factored in. He also asked if Ford expects to be compliant with European CO2 regulations next year.

    Answer

    CFO John Lawler defended the payout ratio, confirming Ford considers prospective risks but sees no reason to change the policy, citing the prudence of holding cash. CEO Jim Farley added that maintaining strategic optionality for Ford Pro services is also a key consideration. Farley affirmed that Ford expects to be compliant with European CO2 regulations.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Sensata Technologies Holding (ST) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to Sensata Technologies Holding (ST) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak questioned the outlook for free cash flow and CapEx in the second half of the year, and asked for clarification on the company's deleveraging strategy, including leverage targets and plans for gross debt reduction.

    Answer

    CEO Stephan von Schuckmann reiterated the goal of 80%+ free cash flow conversion. CFO Andrew Lynch explained that while CapEx was low in Q2, it will tick up but remain manageable, with 80% conversion being a floor. He added that near-term deleveraging will focus on accumulating cash, with a target of getting below 3.0x leverage and moving towards 2.5x.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Sensata Technologies Holding (ST) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked about the potential margin upside if conservative auto forecasts prove wrong, the status of tariff cost negotiations with customers, and for an update on the company's portfolio review.

    Answer

    CEO Stephan Von Schuckmann and CFO Brian Roberts stated that 95% of the tariff risk has been mitigated through customer negotiations. Regarding the portfolio, Mr. Von Schuckmann noted that his focus has been on the three strategic pillars and that while he is reviewing the portfolio, there are no changes to announce at this time.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Sensata Technologies Holding (ST) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    An analyst on behalf of Joseph Spak asked about Sensata's positioning for Europe's 2025 CO2 regulations and the potential impact from shifts between BEV and ICE vehicle production.

    Answer

    Executive Martha Sullivan stated that Sensata is well-positioned due to its content on both ICE engines and its growing content on BEVs. She noted that because current content is slightly lower on a full BEV in Europe, a recent slowdown in BEV adoption has been a net positive in some cases. Future projections depend heavily on consumer demand.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to GENTEX (GNTX) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to GENTEX (GNTX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group AG inquired about the future operating expense run rate for the newly acquired VOXX business, plans for its audio product sourcing amid tariff changes, and whether Q2 results for the core business included any pull-forward of production from the second half of the year.

    Answer

    President & CEO Steve Downing stated that VOXX's OpEx as a percentage of sales should move closer to Gentex's levels over the next couple of years through synergies and ERP integration. He noted that the VOXX audio teams have already been proactively moving manufacturing out of China, with most transitions expected within 12 months. He also clarified that while there was some production pull-forward in Q2, it was not significant.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to GENTEX (GNTX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak sought more clarity on the specific tariffs assumed in the guidance, requesting the dollar figure for the COGS impact. He also asked about the operating expenses and demand elasticity for VOXX products facing price increases, and whether Gentex's internal production forecasts differ from the S&P outlook.

    Answer

    President and CEO Steve Downing estimated the incremental COGS impact from tariffs to be around $50 million for the year, which is assumed to be reimbursed by customers, leading to the 50 basis point margin decline. CFO Kevin Nash noted that VOXX's public company operating expenses will see synergies and that competitors face similar supply chain issues, potentially mitigating demand elasticity issues from price hikes. Downing added that Gentex is slightly more negative than the latest S&P forecast, particularly regarding the impact of vehicle price increases on content and trim packages.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to GENTEX (GNTX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak questioned the assumptions behind the 2025-2026 guidance, particularly the slowing content growth, and asked for the forecasted Full Display Mirror (FDM) unit growth. He also sought clarification on the math behind the 7% revenue outgrowth guidance for 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Steve Downing explained that headwinds in base mirror shipments are being offset by growth in advanced features, and he forecasted approximately 300,000 units of FDM growth in 2025. CFO Kevin Nash clarified the 7% outgrowth is relative to Gentex's primary markets (NA, Europe, Japan/Korea), which are forecast to decline by over 2%.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to GENTEX (GNTX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak sought to confirm that Gentex's Q4 and 2025 forecasts include a conservative adjustment to official S&P production numbers. He also asked for the drivers behind the implied sequential gross margin improvement in Q4 on potentially flat sales.

    Answer

    President and CEO Steve Downing confirmed that the company's forecast for Q4 is more conservative than published data, reflecting risks seen in Q3. He explained the expected Q4 margin improvement is due to an anticipated easing of the unfavorable product mix issues that were a headwind in Q3, though he cautioned it would not reach the level of Q4 last year.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS sought clarification on the net performance contribution, asking to confirm the first-half dollar amount and whether the $25 million guidance increase was already realized or slated for the second half. He also asked if the new Ford F-150 award was a mid-cycle change or for the next generation, and requested a timeline for an updated backlog outlook, noting recent sourcing delays.

    Answer

    CFO Jason Cardew confirmed the first-half performance and stated the increased guidance is primarily driven by restructuring savings expected in the second half. CEO Ray Scott specified the Ford award is for the next-generation truck. He noted that while some sourcing decisions are delayed, E-Systems has already secured nearly $1 billion in new business this year, and a comprehensive backlog update is likely in the third or fourth quarter.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS inquired about recent changes to OEM production schedules and the rationale behind Lear's decision to withdraw its full-year guidance. He also asked about mitigating the direct tariff impact, particularly concerning the significant exposure from wire harnesses produced in Honduras.

    Answer

    CFO Jason Cardew explained the guidance withdrawal was due to significant uncertainty around consumer response to price hikes, OEM reactions regarding market share vs. margins, and evolving trade policies, which created too wide a range to be useful for investors. CEO Raymond Scott and CFO Jason Cardew addressed the Honduras tariff exposure, noting they are pursuing 100% cost recovery from customers and exploring options like changing the importer of record. Cardew estimated the gross tariff cost at ~$200 million, with half from Honduras, but expects the 25% tariff rate on wire harnesses to be adjusted lower.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS sought clarification on several items in the financial walk, including the 'wind-down' of certain product lines, a recent divestiture, and the 'other' category. He also asked about cash allocation for potential China JV consolidation and automation investments.

    Answer

    CFO Jason Cardew explained the 'wind-down' refers to exited electronics businesses like lighting and audio, the divestiture is a small non-automotive fabric business, and 'other' is mainly inflation pass-throughs. CEO Raymond Scott stated that automation investments will continue due to strong paybacks. Cardew added that consolidating China JVs is not expected to be a significant use of cash.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS inquired about the seemingly conservative fourth-quarter guidance, early indications for 2025 given slower EV uptake and delayed sourcing, and the assumptions behind the company's China growth forecast.

    Answer

    CFO Jason Cardew explained that the Q4 production outlook is based on specific customer schedules, noting a significant deterioration, particularly in Europe. He acknowledged that while the 2025 sourcing environment has slowed as customers rethink powertrain strategies, Lear's win rates remain consistent and its conquest pipeline is at a record level. CEO Raymond Scott added that the current environment involves more 'requests for information' (RFIs) as OEMs model different scenarios. Regarding China, Cardew stated the forecast assumes a continued, but more moderate, pace of market share shift to domestic OEMs.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to VISTEON (VC) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to VISTEON (VC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group followed up on the BMS discussion, asking if the current sales run-rate represents a floor and about the potential for restructuring the business. He also inquired if increased OEM investment in U.S. manufacturing could accelerate or expand Visteon's opportunities with newly won customers like Toyota.

    Answer

    President and CEO Sachin Lawande stated that Visteon is expanding its electrification offering beyond BMS to include more power electronics to increase content per vehicle. He suggested the current BMS sales level could be a floor, as more affordable EV models launch. Regarding U.S. manufacturing, he confirmed that the trend of regionalizing supply chains is a significant benefit for Visteon, especially given its investments in vertical integration in North America, which enhances its position with customers increasing their U.S. footprint.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to VISTEON (VC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak requested clarification on the financial assumptions in a scenario where Visteon hits the low end of its guidance, particularly regarding tariff cost recovery. He also asked about the export destinations for products made in China.

    Answer

    CFO Jerome Rouquet confirmed the scenario's math, which assumes a further 3% decline in customer production, a 25% decremental margin, and 100% recovery of direct tariff costs. CEO Sachin Lawande added that very little of what Visteon produces in China is exported to the U.S., with some content for Nissan vehicles being a minor example.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to VISTEON (VC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak inquired about Visteon's Q4 customer production outlook, contrasting it with more negative forecasts from other suppliers, and asked how the accelerating pace of hardware innovation, such as new AI-capable chips, is impacting customer conversations and future sourcing decisions.

    Answer

    CEO Sachin Lawande stated that Visteon's Q4 outlook is based on diligently checked direct customer orders and is bolstered by numerous new product launches, which drive market outperformance despite softness in Europe. Regarding hardware, he explained that high-cost AI-capable silicon is segmenting the market, creating distinct opportunities in both premium and mass-market vehicles, which Visteon is positioned to serve with its broad, vertically-integrated product portfolio.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to PHINIA (PHIN) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to PHINIA (PHIN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group sought clarification on the tariff figures, asking to reconcile tariff recoveries with the net tariff cost mentioned in the presentation. He also pressed for more details on the Ford fuel pump issue, inquiring about any changes to financial accruals or disclosures and the status of discussions with Ford.

    Answer

    CFO Chris Gropp clarified the tariff impact, stating there was a $9 million recovery against $11 million in costs, resulting in a net negative impact of $2 million for the quarter. She also distinguished this from the separate $6 million in supplier cost savings. President & CEO Brady Ericson added that regarding the Ford issue, there have been no changes to PHINIA's disclosures or accruals and that discussions with Ford are ongoing as a final solution has not yet been announced.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to PHINIA (PHIN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak requested quantification of the moving parts within the reaffirmed guidance, such as FX benefits versus softer end markets, and asked where the company is trending within its guidance range. He also inquired how market uncertainty is affecting the M&A strategy.

    Answer

    CEO Brady Ericson quantified that the FX headwind in the original guide was reduced from approximately $80 million to around $20 million, which is offset by an expected $50 million in tariff pass-through pricing and softer CV volumes. He stated the company is still trending solidly in the midrange of its guide. CFO Chris Gropp added that Q1 is seasonally the weakest quarter, with performance expected to improve. Regarding M&A, Brady Ericson affirmed the company's strong cash position and focus on smaller, cash-flowing, tuck-in acquisitions, which are always evaluated against share repurchases.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to PHINIA (PHIN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Representing Joseph Spak of UBS, an analyst asked about PHINIA's capital allocation plans for its excess cash, the M&A outlook, current GDi market penetration, and the content uplift associated with new 500-bar systems.

    Answer

    CEO Brady Ericson stated that the strong cash position prompted increased share buybacks and that the company remains disciplined in its M&A search for accretive assets in CV, industrial, and aftermarket. He noted GDi penetration is around 60-65% and PHINIA's mid-teens market share is growing, aided by 500-bar systems that offer significant customer value with minimal content increase, as they are a drop-in replacement.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Mobileye Global (MBLY) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to Mobileye Global (MBLY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak requested more details on the DRIVE Robotaxi commercial deployment plan, including the first city and the nature of the partner relationship, and asked if Mobileye would consider making a strategic investment in a partner's autonomous vehicle unit.

    Answer

    CEO Amnon Shashua revealed the first driver-out deployment is planned for a US city in mid-2026, leveraging a unique, scalable teleoperations design. He described the cooperation with Volkswagen's ADMT division as very tight. On strategic investments, he called a potential partner stake offering a "very good development" and confirmed Mobileye would "seriously consider also participating as an investor."

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Mobileye Global (MBLY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak inquired about the business model for the new Volkswagen-Uber robotaxi partnership and questioned whether the strong Q2 unit outlook was due to customers ordering ahead of potential uncertainty.

    Answer

    CEO Amnon Shashua detailed the robotaxi model, which includes a one-time payment per vehicle for the self-driving system and a recurring license fee based on fleet utilization. CFO Moran Rojansky addressed the Q2 outlook, stating that order levels have been stable since February and are consistent with recent quarters, indicating no significant inventory build-up by customers.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to Mobileye Global (MBLY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS questioned whether price is a point of pushback in OEM negotiations and if recent AI developments cause Mobileye to re-evaluate its technology strategy or lower the barrier to entry for competitors.

    Answer

    CEO Amnon Shashua and EVP Nimrod Nehushtan asserted that price is not a significant impediment and they have not lost programs due to it. On AI, Shashua explained that recent developments align with Mobileye's long-standing focus on purpose-built efficiency, highlighting their own advanced transformer architectures and silicon design. He does not believe open-source models significantly lower the entry barrier for the complexities of autonomous driving.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS Group sought to clarify the dynamic in AI, asking why outperforming customer demand would lead to sequential softness in Q3 if customers are willing to take all available supply, suggesting it might be a period of digestion.

    Answer

    President & CEO R. Adam Norwitt reiterated that Q3 is not an 'air pocket' and underlying demand remains robust. He explained the moderation is a timing issue, as customers need to align all necessary components for their system builds, and Amphenol's outperformance in Q2 simply got them 'a little bit ahead' in certain product areas.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS asked for an update on the Industrial business, specifically seeking signs of "green shoots" in the lagging European market and any changes in order patterns in North America or Asia due to new tariff policies.

    Answer

    CEO Adam Norwitt noted that while the Industrial segment's 6% organic growth was still driven by North America and Asia, Europe's rate of decline has lessened significantly and showed sequential growth. He described this as a potential "green shoot" or a "daffodil or two." He also confirmed a positive book-to-bill in Industrial, suggesting strengthening demand.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked about the significant margin expansion in the Communication Solutions segment, questioning its sustainability and whether the growing AI mix would continue to drive margins higher or if investments would temper them.

    Answer

    CEO R. Norwitt attributed the segment's strong profitability to excellent operational execution and strong conversion on high sales growth, rather than the AI mix specifically. He explained that the division's ability to control fixed costs while growing significantly drove strong operating leverage, resulting in a conversion margin in the low 30s, which is not abnormal for that level of growth and is typical of Amphenol's disciplined approach.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked two questions: whether the aerospace guidance accounted for recent labor strikes, and for an update on the 'industrial green shoots' mentioned last quarter, including any impact from China's stimulus.

    Answer

    CEO R. Norwitt confirmed that aerospace guidance incorporates all available customer information. On the industrial market, he noted that while North America and Asia saw organic growth, the outlook for Europe has become more muted than a quarter ago, partially tied to weakness in the European automotive market.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to TE Connectivity (TEL) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to TE Connectivity (TEL) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS Group AG followed up on the sustainability of performance by asking if TE Connectivity has a new aspirational margin target for the company, given the recent strong results.

    Answer

    CFO Heath Mitts responded that while the company focuses on total company margin, success is measured by achieving incremental flow-through of 30% or better on organic revenue growth at the business unit level. He explained this approach will naturally lead to a gradual increase in the overall company margin over the cycle, without setting a new specific target.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to TE Connectivity (TEL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak sought clarification on the strong Industrial segment orders, asking if the growth included the Richards acquisition and what the underlying core organic order trends were.

    Answer

    CEO Terrence Curtin clarified that the strong Industrial order growth was entirely organic and did not include any contribution from the Richards acquisition, which closed after the quarter ended. He emphasized that the growth was broad-based, occurring across all business units, including automation and appliances, and across all geographies.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to TE Connectivity (TEL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak posed two margin-related questions: whether Q1 auto margins were boosted by engineering recoveries, and if the rapid growth in AI could lead to margin variability due to investment pacing.

    Answer

    CEO Terrence Curtin clarified that strong Q1 auto margins were not due to engineering recoveries but were a typical seasonal result of high production volumes in Asia. On the second point, he confirmed that the company has been investing ahead of AI ramps, and the lumpiness of these large programs will indeed cause some variability in the segment's margin.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to TE Connectivity (TEL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS inquired about fiscal 2025 CapEx plans, whether free cash flow conversion could remain high, and if the company would distribute 100% of free cash flow if M&A opportunities don't materialize.

    Answer

    CFO Heath Mitts guided for CapEx to be roughly 5% of revenue, expecting an approximate $100 million increase in FY25 versus FY24, primarily for AI program growth. He anticipates free cash flow conversion will remain above 100%, though likely not at the 120% level of FY24 due to working capital needs in a growth environment. He implicitly confirmed a commitment to returning capital if M&A is not pursued, consistent with the company's strategy to not accumulate cash.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS Group asked for clarification on why the largest tariff headwind shifted from Q2 to Q3 and inquired about the expected expense for regulatory credits in 2025 and beyond.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Paul Jacobson explained the shift was due to the timing of certain indirect tariff costs hitting later than initially estimated, though the full-year impact remains on track. Regarding regulatory credits, he stated that changes from recent legislation will result in a wash for 2025 with no material adjustments, but he expects a lower compliance expense rate in the future. Chairman & CEO Mary Barra added this allows GM to sell profitable ICE vehicles for longer.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS sought clarification on the updated guidance, asking for a breakdown of the tariff impact versus self-help mitigations and whether the improved pricing outlook was included in the offset calculation. He also questioned GM's strategy on future pricing actions given potential competitor moves.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Paul Jacobson clarified that the $4-5 billion tariff impact is the gross figure, which is then reduced by the 30% self-help initiatives to arrive at the new guidance range. He stated that the improved pricing outlook seen year-to-date has been offset by other pressures like warranty and FX, and the company is not banking on further price increases. Jacobson reiterated that GM's disciplined go-to-market strategy has successfully grown market share without chasing volume through heavy incentives, and they plan to maintain this approach.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked about Q4 pricing dynamics, noting the slight year-over-year headwind despite strong ATPs, and inquired if the 2025 pricing decline assumption includes EVs. He also questioned the flexibility of GM's manufacturing footprint to mitigate potential tariffs by shifting production, particularly for full-size trucks.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Paul Jacobson clarified that the 1-1.5% pricing decline for 2025 is a prudent planning assumption, not what GM is currently observing. Chair and CEO Mary Barra stated that GM has studied multiple tariff scenarios and has the capacity in the U.S. to shift some truck production from Mexico and Canada, along with other levers to minimize impact.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group AG asked for clarification on the Q3 warranty cost adjustment, questioning if it was a one-time reserve or an ongoing rate change, and inquired about the unwinding of EV-related inventory costs.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Paul Jacobson explained the $700 million warranty adjustment was driven by both inflationary pressures on parts and labor and specific prior-year quality issues that have since been fixed in production. Regarding the EV inventory unwind, he noted the lower of cost or market adjustment is a function of inventory levels and improving profitability, expecting it to slow but potentially be a tailwind next year.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to MAGNA INTERNATIONAL (MGA) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to MAGNA INTERNATIONAL (MGA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS requested clarification on the math behind the $250 million tariff impact, whether recoveries are included in revenue guidance, and why margin revisions were concentrated in the BES and Seating segments.

    Answer

    CEO Seetarama Kotagiri and CFO Patrick McCann explained the tariff math includes government remissions and varying tariff rates. McCann stated the outlook assumes a zero EBIT impact from tariffs, with recoveries treated as cost offsets, not revenue. He specified that margin revisions were driven by volume declines from announced OEM shutdowns, which disproportionately affect the BES and Seating segments.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to MAGNA INTERNATIONAL (MGA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak asked for clarification on 2025 free cash flow components and tariff assumptions. His main question focused on Magna's portfolio strategy, asking if the company is a net buyer or seller of assets and if it would exit businesses to rebalance customer exposure.

    Answer

    CFO Patrick McCann confirmed the 2025 free cash flow walk includes headwinds from cash restructuring and working capital normalization, and that the outlook includes no tariff impacts. CEO Seetarama Kotagiri emphasized a focus on execution post-Veoneer acquisition, stating that while small tuck-ins are possible, divestitures are "not off the table." He highlighted the successful shift in China to 60% of business with domestic OEMs as an example of actively managing customer mix.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to MAGNA INTERNATIONAL (MGA) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Joseph Spak from UBS asked for the specific dollar amount of the expected engineering spend reduction in the second half of 2024 and questioned whether recoveries for EV program cancellations are embedded in the 2026 forecast.

    Answer

    Executive Louis Tonelli declined to quantify the H2 engineering spend reduction. CEO Seetarama Kotagiri explained that recoveries for EV program changes are part of broader commercial discussions with OEMs. He noted that while some level of recovery is embedded in the outlook, these are more substantially reflected in the 2024 forecast than in the 2026 numbers.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to DANA (DAN) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to DANA (DAN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak of UBS Group AG inquired about the 2025 guidance, asking if the initial assumptions for 'New Dana' versus the off-highway business have materially changed given tariff impacts, cost savings, and market shifts. He also questioned if market uncertainty has affected the off-highway divestiture process.

    Answer

    SVP and CFO Timothy Kraus explained that lower commercial vehicle forecasts are being offset by strength in light vehicle, some pre-buy in off-highway, and anticipated tariff recoveries. Chairman and CEO R. McDonald added that 'New Dana' margins are up year-over-year, keeping the company on track for its 2026 targets. Regarding the divestiture, McDonald noted that tariff uncertainty has extended bidder due diligence, likely pushing a resolution to late in the second quarter.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to DANA (DAN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Representing Joseph Spak of UBS, an analyst asked for a more detailed split of the non-off-highway backlog between the Light Vehicle and Commercial Vehicle segments. He also requested more color on the expected market weakness in Q2.

    Answer

    CEO R. McDonald explained that the Commercial Vehicle business has very little backlog as it is primarily a catalog-based business, meaning the vast majority of the non-off-highway backlog is in Light Vehicle. He added that while Q2 weakness won't be as severe as Q1, some softness will persist across end markets before a recovery begins in the second half of the year.

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    Joseph Spak's questions to QuantumScape (QS) leadership

    Joseph Spak's questions to QuantumScape (QS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Joseph Spak pressed on the competitive environment, asking why an OEM wouldn't choose an evolving LFP technology if it meets performance needs, questioning the ultimate advantage of solid-state. He also asked for insight into Tesla's potential anode-less development and requested an updated timeline for providing financial details on the licensing model.

    Answer

    CEO Dr. Siva Sivaram responded that competing technologies often present incomplete data and require compromises on safety, cycle life, or range, whereas QuantumScape offers a superior solution on all dimensions. He declined to comment on specific potential customers like Tesla but noted it was good to see others adopting their way of thinking on anode-free design. CFO Kevin Hettrich reiterated the general framework of the licensing model (royalties, prepays, NRE) and Dr. Sivaram added that full financial details would be provided at an appropriate future time.

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