Josh Heinen

Josh Heinen asked about market share dynamics between clinical and preclinical customers within the mRNA ecosystem (250-300 customers) and current mRNA pipeline trends for 2026. He also inquired about the broader policy backdrop (mRNA, cell gene therapy, Most-Favored-Nation) and its impact on improved visibility.

Answer

Bernd Brust (CEO) estimated about a one-third market share of mRNA customers, noting that forecasted GMP revenues (around $45 million for 2026, excluding CDMO) indicate faster growth in the GMP world, suggesting program progression or higher volumes. He stated that policy headwinds were largely vaccine-driven, an area of low exposure for Maravai, and highlighted increased traction from a broader customer base in both GMP and Discovery, with larger Discovery orders signaling future GMP clinical trial progression.

Josh Heinen asked about market share dynamics between clinical and preclinical customers within the mRNA ecosystem and current mRNA pipeline trends for 2026. He also inquired about the broader policy backdrop for 2026, given 2025 headwinds, and how it informs improved visibility.

Answer

CEO Bernd Brust estimated a one-third market share of mRNA customers, noting that while discovery is larger, GMP is seeing the fastest growth, indicating program progression. He stated that policy headwinds were vaccine-driven, an area of low exposure, and increased traction from a broader customer base improves visibility.

Josh Heinen asked if Mettler-Toledo has observed any change in sentiment from pharma customers since the announcements of Most Favored Nation (MFN) deals. He also inquired whether the replacement cycle opportunity, which may be ramping up, is baked into the 2026 guidance and its potential longer-term impact.

Answer

Patrick Kaltenbach, CEO, stated that while MFN discussions initially created some uncertainty, the pharma segment performed well, and customers are now primarily focused on addressing re- and onshoring opportunities and commitments to the U.S. government, rather than MFN topics. Regarding the replacement cycle, Mr. Kaltenbach noted two years of subdued replacement business and an aging install base, considering it an upside potential that has not been fully factored into the 2026 guidance.

Josh Heinen asked about any changes in sentiment from pharma customers following recent Most Favored Nation (MFN) deals. He also inquired if the replacement cycle opportunity, which may be starting to ramp up, is factored into the 2026 guidance and its potential longer-term impact.

Answer

Patrick Kaltenbach, Chief Executive Officer, stated that while MFN discussions initially created some uncertainty, the pharma segment performed well, and customers are now primarily focused on addressing reshoring/onshoring opportunities and underlying demand for biopharmaceuticals. MFN is not a primary topic in customer conversations. Regarding the replacement cycle, Mr. Kaltenbach acknowledged two years of subdued replacement business and an aging installed base, suggesting it represents upside potential that has not been fully factored into the 2026 guidance.