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    Josh Shanker

    Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America

    Josh Shanker is a Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America Securities, specializing in coverage of major insurance and financial services companies such as Progressive, AXIS Capital Holdings, Travelers, W.R. Berkley, Voya Financial, and RenaissanceRe. He currently maintains a strong performance record, with a success rate of over 62% across 324 ratings and an average return of 11.2%, ranking him among the top Wall Street analysts. Shanker began his analyst career prior to joining Bank of America and has developed expertise in financials and industrials through years of equity research experience. Professionally credentialed, Shanker holds FINRA registration (CRD# 3175589) and is regulated as a broker at BOFA Securities in New York.

    Josh Shanker's questions to Voya Financial (VOYA) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to Voya Financial (VOYA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America asked about the competitive positioning of the Medical Stop Loss business heading into 2026 and its strategic fit within the broader Employee Benefits segment, given its unique characteristics.

    Answer

    CEO & Director Heather Lavallee reaffirmed that Voya's priority is margin over premium growth. CEO - Workplace Solutions Jay Kaduson added that the team is now culturally aligned on disciplined pricing and risk selection. EVP & CFO Michael Katz explained the strategic fit by framing stop loss as a complementary risk-transfer product for employers who self-insure. He acknowledged its volatility but stressed it is managed by dedicated teams within the Employee Benefits business.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker from Bank of America sought clarification on whether all contingent earn-out liabilities have been fully paid and asked for guidance on the company's future tax rate.

    Answer

    CFO Brad Hale confirmed that 99% of earn-out liabilities are extinguished, with only one minor deal remaining. He also stated that he does not anticipate the company becoming a cash taxpayer for a number of years due to remaining NOLs and restored interest deductibility, expecting to maintain an effective rate of around 10% in adjusted earnings.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America sought clarification on whether the final contingent earn-out payments were now fully settled, including those for employees, and asked for guidance on the company's future tax rate.

    Answer

    CFO Brad Hale confirmed that 99% of earn-out liabilities have been extinguished, with only one minor deal remaining with less than $5 million in potential incentives. He also stated that he does not anticipate the company becoming a cash taxpayer for several years due to existing NOLs and favorable interest deductibility rules, expecting to maintain an effective rate of around 10% for adjusted earnings in the near term.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America questioned if retention would naturally improve as the large volume of lower-retention 'SAM' customers acquired in 2024 normalizes. He also asked if the high ad spend is justified if it primarily attracts these low-duration customers.

    Answer

    Tricia Griffith, CEO, President & Director, agreed with the logic in a stable environment but cautioned that the market is dynamic, with factors like a strategic push for 'Robinsons' and ongoing consumer shopping creating noise. She affirmed the ad spend is justified, as they only acquire customers they expect to be profitable, and today's 'SAMs' can become tomorrow's 'Robinsons', aligning with their long-term customer lifecycle strategy.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to RYAN SPECIALTY HOLDINGS (RYAN) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to RYAN SPECIALTY HOLDINGS (RYAN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America requested clarification on the Ryan Re business model, asking about its capabilities and how it competes with the major reinsurance brokers, and whether it has its own broking function.

    Answer

    Founder & Executive Chairman Patrick Ryan and Miles Wuller, CEO of Underwriting Managers, emphatically clarified that Ryan Re is a reinsurance underwriter (MGU), not a reinsurance broker. They explained that the large reinsurance brokers are not competitors but are in fact clients and a primary production source, bringing business to Ryan Re to underwrite on behalf of its capital provider, Nationwide.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to ALLSTATE (ALL) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to ALLSTATE (ALL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America Merrill Lynch asked about the drivers behind the significant surge in Allstate's roadside assistance policies and whether it serves as a tool for improving customer persistency. He also inquired about the success of the company's bundling strategy now compared to five years ago.

    Answer

    Suren Gupta, President of Allstate Protection Products & Enterprise Services, confirmed that a key driver for roadside assistance growth is the bundling of the product with auto policies sold by agents. Tom Wilson, Chairman, President & CEO, added that bundling is much more successful today due to an improved technology stack, but significant opportunity remains in areas like renters and boat insurance.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to EVEREST GROUP (EG) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to EVEREST GROUP (EG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker from Bank of America asked about the decision to increase property cat probable maximum losses (PMLs) in what some describe as a softening market. He also questioned if, in hindsight, more capital should have been deployed last year.

    Answer

    Jim Williamson, President & CEO, strongly refuted the 'soft market' label for property cat, emphasizing that rates remain historically very strong and offer excellent returns. He justified the PML increase by the highly attractive risk-reward profile, which makes it a better use of capital than other options. Williamson dismissed a retrospective look at last year's deployment, noting that increasing line sizes with clients is a gradual process.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to ARCH CAPITAL GROUP (ACGL) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to ARCH CAPITAL GROUP (ACGL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker sought to reconcile commentary about the attractiveness of property cat with the year-over-year decline in written premiums and asked about the impact of these shifts on the reinsurance acquisition cost ratio.

    Answer

    CEO Nicolas Papadopoulo and CFO & Treasurer François Morin clarified that after adjusting for a timing issue, property cat premiums were actually up ~20%. The decline in 'other property' was due to selective underwriting, including cedent retention and non-renewal of a large contract. Morin added that these mix shifts did not have a significant impact on the acquisition cost ratio, which is more sensitive to profit commissions.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS (AXS) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS (AXS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker from Bank of America asked for details on the amortization of the Deferred Tax Asset (DTA), the split between cash and non-cash tax payments, and the potential risks from global tax changes. He also requested more specifics on the drivers of the high paid-to-incurred loss ratio in the insurance segment.

    Answer

    CFO Peter Vogt explained that the DTA will amortize over approximately 10 years, and this amortization is treated as a non-operating, non-cash item for consistency with how it was established. He noted the OECD has provided clarity through 2026, but beyond that is uncertain. Regarding the paid loss ratio, Mr. Vogt and CEO Vincent Tizzio attributed the quarterly increase to several large, older claims in the marine, aviation, and professional lines, as well as wildfire claim payments, rather than a change in underlying trends.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to CINCINNATI FINANCIAL (CINF) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to CINCINNATI FINANCIAL (CINF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America asked about the drivers behind the accelerating growth in commercial lines, questioning if it stemmed from new agencies or other factors. He also inquired about the go-forward strategy for the inbound reinsurance business (Cincinnati Re) and whether the primary portfolio's risk profile has changed enough to alter the outcome of another major wildfire event.

    Answer

    President & CEO Stephen Spray attributed the strong commercial growth to an 'all of the above' strategy, including deep agent relationships, new agency appointments, and new product additions. For Cincinnati Re, he stated it is executing its disciplined strategy of pulling back when pricing is inadequate. He noted that the primary homeowners' portfolio shape has seen little change in the last six months that would alter its response to a major event.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to CINCINNATI FINANCIAL (CINF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America questioned the drivers of accelerating commercial lines growth and asked about the go-forward strategy for the inbound reinsurance business (Cincinnati Re), and if primary exposures have changed since the Q1 wildfires.

    Answer

    President & CEO Stephen Spray attributed the strong commercial growth to an 'all of the above' strategy, including new agency appointments, E&S growth, and new products. For Cincinnati Re, he stated it is executing its strategy of disciplined underwriting, pulling back where pricing is inadequate. He noted that the primary business portfolio has seen 'little change' in the last six months that would alter the outcome of a similar wildfire event.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to BROWN & BROWN (BRO) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to BROWN & BROWN (BRO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America inquired about acquisition earnouts, asking if they have been consistently maximized and if that trend should normalize. He also asked for commentary on the MGA space.

    Answer

    EVP, CFO & Treasurer R. Andrew Watts noted that the change in estimated earnouts has been immaterial over time, as initial estimates are robust. President, CEO & Director J. Powell Brown added that future performance is business-dependent. Regarding MGAs, Brown stressed that success is built on trust and underwriting discipline, and he sees carrier support for Brown & Brown's MGA facilities as stronger than ever.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS (RNR) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS (RNR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker from Bank of America asked about the unexpectedly rapid rebound in management fees and questioned the portfolio dynamics between the wind-down of AlphaCat and the premium growth in the DaVinci vehicle.

    Answer

    President & CEO Kevin O'Donnell and EVP & CFO Robert Qutub explained that the fee recovery was accelerated by a light catastrophe quarter and favorable development, which was faster than budgeted. They clarified that DaVinci Re effectively operates like a quota share of RenRe Limited and is the focus for growth, while the acquired AlphaCat vehicle is being managed down and is not a significant contributor.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to BERKLEY W R (WRB) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to BERKLEY W R (WRB) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker from Bank of America asked for clarification on the company's disappointment with casualty reinsurance trends and questioned how higher investment yields are influencing underwriting pricing discipline.

    Answer

    President & CEO W. Robert Berkley, Jr. specified his disappointment was with high ceding commissions in the assumed reinsurance market and a lack of discipline in the casualty facultative space. He acknowledged the link between investment income and underwriting but dismissed a return to cash-flow underwriting, noting competitive pressures are highest in short-tail lines.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to BERKLEY W R (WRB) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Josh Shanker of Bank of America sought clarification on management's disappointment with casualty reinsurance trends and asked how higher investment yields are influencing underwriting discipline.

    Answer

    President & CEO W. Robert Berkley, Jr. specified his disappointment was with high ceding commissions in the assumed reinsurance market. He acknowledged the link between investment income and underwriting returns but firmly stated it would not lead to a return to cash-flow underwriting, especially as the most competitive lines are short-tail.

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    Josh Shanker's questions to WILLIS TOWERS WATSON (WTW) leadership

    Josh Shanker's questions to WILLIS TOWERS WATSON (WTW) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Asked about the economic sensitivity of the business, specifically whether it impacts revenue or margins more during a recession. He also inquired how the business would be affected by a simultaneous recession and inflation.

    Answer

    The business has historically grown revenue through various economic conditions, though growth can be muted in downturns. Margins are more stable due to a substantial portion of compensation being variable, which helps manage the bottom line. In a stagflationary environment, different parts of the business react differently; inflation can boost commission-based income but also raises costs. The company believes its operational flexibility, particularly in managing its cost base, positions it well to weather all types of economic climates.

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