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Josh Spector

Director of Equity Research at UBS Group

Josh Spector is a Director of Equity Research at UBS, specializing in coverage of materials and chemicals companies including Sherwin-Williams, Dow Inc., Ardagh Metal Packaging, and Element Solutions Inc. He has consistently issued detailed investment assessments, such as maintaining a Buy rating on Sherwin-Williams with a notable target price, and holds a documented 52.82% success rate with a 3-star analyst ranking according to performance metrics. Spector has built his career in equity research at UBS and has held this director-level position while expanding his sector expertise and impact among institutional investors. He is professionally credentialed, likely holding FINRA registrations appropriate for his role, and is recognized for his timely and data-driven investment recommendations.

Josh Spector's questions to Perimeter Solutions (PRM) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Perimeter Solutions (PRM) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS Group AG questioned the sustainability of the high Q2 Fire Safety margins, asked for a breakdown of the Specialty Products segment's EBITDA growth drivers, sought details on the $20 million Compass Minerals settlement, and inquired about changes to government contract structures.

Answer

CEO Haitham Khouri affirmed that the Q2 Fire Safety performance is a sustainable baseline the company will build upon. He attributed Specialty Products' strength to the incremental, high-performing IMS acquisition and a solid base business, which offset headwinds from the Flexus-operated Saje plant. CFO Kyle Sabol clarified the Compass settlement included ~$5 million in tangible assets. Khouri also confirmed the company is actively working to 'de-variabilize' revenue through mutually beneficial contract changes with customers.

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Josh Spector's questions to INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES (IFF) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES (IFF) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector asked for the Scent segment's outlook for Q3 and Q4, focusing on the divergent trends between Fine/Consumer Fragrance and the drag from Fragrance Ingredients.

Answer

CFO Michael Deveau projected continued strong performance in Fine Fragrance and low single-digit growth in Consumer Fragrance. He identified Fragrance Ingredients as the primary pressure point, expecting it to be down at levels similar to Q2 for the rest of the year due to weakness in commodities. He added that IFF is reinvesting in new molecules to strengthen its specialty portfolio.

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Josh Spector's questions to Chemours (CC) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Chemours (CC) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group revisited the Thermal & Specialized Solutions (TSS) segment's performance, asking if the current high margins and top-line growth represent a new sustainable base or if some giveback is expected. He also asked if the insurance proceeds from the New Jersey settlement could be applied to other PFAS litigation, such as in North Carolina.

Answer

SVP & CFO Shane Hostetter acknowledged the strong TSS margins but noted some raw material cost increases could have a slight impact, though he reiterated confidence in margins remaining above 30%. He stated that while the business has strong prospects, future competitive dynamics are a factor. Regarding insurance, he clarified the current focus is on applying the proceeds to the New Jersey settlement but the company will continue to explore other avenues.

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Josh Spector's questions to WESTLAKE (WLK) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to WESTLAKE (WLK) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS asked for clarification on the HIP segment's outlook, which implies a sales acceleration from down 3% year-over-year in the first half to up 3% in the second half. He also questioned the timing of the financial benefit from the Pernis epoxy site shutdown, asking if it would impact the second half of 2025 or be a 2026 event.

Answer

EVP & CFO Steven Bender attributed the HIP outlook to the diverse product mix and particular strength in the water infrastructure business, which is benefiting from the Infrastructure Act. He clarified that the financial benefit from the Pernis shutdown is largely a 2026 impact, with only a minor benefit expected as the plant winds down later in 2025.

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Josh Spector's questions to SEALED AIR CORP/DE (SEE) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to SEALED AIR CORP/DE (SEE) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS Group AG asked for clarification on the volume assumptions for the non-red meat portions of the Food business for the second half, given the significant headwinds in red meat.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Dustin Semach explained that the broader volume weakness is not isolated to red meat. He noted that overall global protein production is down about one percent, with markets including dairy, poultry, and smoked/processed meats all experiencing slight declines. He attributed this to current market demand conditions rather than a structural, long-term issue.

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Josh Spector's questions to DuPont de Nemours (DD) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to DuPont de Nemours (DD) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS Group questioned the future Qunity's high exposure to China relative to peers and asked about the status of a potential divestment of the Aramid business ahead of the Investor Day.

Answer

Jon Kemp, President of the Electronics division, clarified that over half of the China exposure is in the PCB/ICS business, reflecting industry concentration there, and he expects the overall mix to normalize. CEO Lori Koch declined to comment on divestiture rumors but reiterated the strategic focus on shifting the portfolio to healthcare and water.

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Josh Spector's questions to LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS asked about the potential impact of new European frameworks for energy support and reduced regulation on the chemical industry and on LyondellBasell's reshaped portfolio.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker acknowledged positive momentum in European regulations for the circular market, such as PPWR and mass balancing rules. While he sees general support for the chemical industry as a positive sign, he noted 'the devil is in the details' and confirmed these developments do not change LYB's strategy, including the planned sale of four European assets.

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Josh Spector's questions to Huntsman (HUN) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Huntsman (HUN) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS Group AG asked if the improvement in Advanced Materials, driven by Power and Industrial markets, was structural. He also inquired about a specific benefit in the Performance Products segment.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Peter Huntsman described the Q2 Advanced Materials performance as a 'more normalized run rate' rather than a one-time event. EVP & CFO Phil Lister clarified the Performance Products benefit was a reversal of a loss contingency accrual, which was offset by other items and is not expected to have a significant net impact in Q3.

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Josh Spector's questions to LINDE (LIN) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to LINDE (LIN) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS Group AG questioned the guidance assumptions, noting the forecast for contracting volumes seems more pessimistic than current trends and asked if this was due to recent weakening or added conservatism.

Answer

CFO Matt White clarified that the guidance is based on a -2% trend for base volumes (excluding the project backlog). He acknowledged that while the year-over-year comp gets easier, the guidance implies some sequential worsening. He explained that given currency volatility and general economic uncertainty, they chose to offset the FX benefit with a more conservative economic assumption, but will strive to outperform.

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Josh Spector's questions to EASTMAN CHEMICAL (EMN) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to EASTMAN CHEMICAL (EMN) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector inquired about the Methanolysis investment strategy, asking for clarification on the decision to delay the Longview facility, the potential to expand the Kingsport plant, and the impact on the offtake agreement with PepsiCo.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Costa highlighted that the existing Kingsport Methanolysis plant is running exceptionally well, above nameplate capacity. He revealed that targeted, low-capital debottlenecking investments could increase its capacity to 130% or more. This success allows Eastman to delay the second plant, providing time to engineer a more capital-efficient project while still meeting customer demand and pulling forward EBITDA. Mr. Costa confirmed the contract with PepsiCo remains intact.

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Josh Spector's questions to Tronox Holdings (TROX) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Tronox Holdings (TROX) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group questioned the strategy for managing free cash flow and working capital, specifically asking about the trade-off between reducing mining production to manage inventory versus preserving EBITDA.

Answer

CEO John Romano stated that while current production cuts are focused on TiO2, the company is evaluating all levers, including flexing mining and smelter operations, to balance cash and EBITDA. CFO John Srivisal added that they expect to generate cash from working capital in the second half, aided by production cuts and the cost improvement program.

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Josh Spector's questions to FMC (FMC) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to FMC (FMC) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group asked for a detailed breakdown of the cost savings drivers in Q2 and the outlook for these components in the second half of the year.

Answer

EVP and CFO Andrew Sandifer explained that Q2 cost savings were driven by three main factors: lower raw material costs, improved fixed cost absorption from normalized plant capacity, and benefits from restructuring actions. He noted that while these three drivers will persist in Q3 and Q4, the overall cost tailwind will be stronger in Q3, largely due to a more significant benefit from the absence of fixed cost absorption challenges compared to Q4.

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Josh Spector's questions to FMC (FMC) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS sought clarification on the second-half EBITDA bridge, specifically questioning the components of the $100 million price/FX headwind given current foreign exchange rates.

Answer

CFO Andrew Sandifer explained that price and FX are shown together due to their interconnection in many markets. He clarified that the H2 pricing headwind will be slightly less than the full-year guidance, but the drop-through of FX headwinds to EBITDA will be 'a bit heavier' than the historical 50% rate this year, which accounts for the combined negative impact.

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Josh Spector's questions to Element Solutions (ESI) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Element Solutions (ESI) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group asked for more detail on the composition of the electronics portfolio's growth, seeking to understand the contribution from high-growth areas versus legacy businesses, and followed up on the outlook for incremental margins.

Answer

CFO Carey Dorman detailed that outgrowth is driven by emerging vectors like high-performance computing, Chinese EVs, and satellites, which are growing at high rates and increasing their mix in the portfolio. President and CEO Benjamin Gliklich added that recent margin headwinds were transient and reiterated that the historical 30-40% incremental margin expectation is a conservative view going forward.

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Josh Spector's questions to Element Solutions (ESI) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group requested more detail on the growth composition within the electronics portfolio, contrasting high-end compute with legacy markets, and asked about the future outlook for incremental margins given ongoing investments.

Answer

EVP & CFO Carey Dorman explained that growth is coming from emerging vectors like data centers and Chinese EVs, which are growing at high rates and blending the overall growth rate higher. President & CEO Benjamin Gliklich stated that recent margin pressure was transient due to one-time effects like corporate allocations and pre-revenue Cuprion investments, and the historical expectation of 30-40% incremental margins remains a conservative outlook.

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Josh Spector's questions to Air Products & Chemicals (APD) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Air Products & Chemicals (APD) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group AG followed up on the Americas volume, asking for the specific impact of the World Energy project exit and whether this would be a recurring headwind.

Answer

CFO Melissa Schaeffer specified that the World Energy project contributed approximately $24 million in the prior-year quarter. She emphasized that this was a one-time item and the company does not expect this headwind to continue in future quarters.

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Josh Spector's questions to ASHLAND (ASH) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to ASHLAND (ASH) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS Group questioned the drivers behind the implied sequential sales increase in the Q4 guidance, given the commentary on market stability. He also asked if the strong 33% EBITDA margins in Life Sciences were sustainable or if mix shifts could negatively impact them in the future.

Answer

CEO Guillermo Novo attributed the expected Q4 sales lift to company-specific factors, including a strong order book for oral care and volume pickups from new product scale-ups in pharma cellulosics. CFO William Whitaker added that the company is lapping prior-year headwinds in biofunctional actives. Regarding Life Sciences margins, SVP & General Manager Alessandra Faccin Assis stated that growth is being driven by high-margin innovation and globalized initiatives, and the company is focused on maintaining healthy profitability with EBITDA margins above 30%.

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Josh Spector's questions to PPG INDUSTRIES (PPG) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to PPG INDUSTRIES (PPG) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group followed up on architectural margins, asking for a more detailed breakdown of the cost headwinds and whether the high negative decremental margin would normalize in the second half.

Answer

CFO Vince Morales reiterated the main drivers: an unfavorable sales mix in Mexico, a transitory supply chain issue in Australia that impacted volume by 50 basis points, and FX headwinds. He confirmed that he expects a return to normal incremental margins in the second half of the year as these one-time and currency-related issues subside.

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Josh Spector's questions to PPG INDUSTRIES (PPG) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group followed up on architectural margins, asking for a more detailed breakdown of the factors causing the high negative decremental margin and whether this trend would persist.

Answer

CFO Vince Morales reiterated the key drivers: an unfavorable sales mix due to lower B2B volumes in high-margin Mexico, an FX impact that is expected to normalize in the second half, and a transitory supply chain issue in Australia that negatively impacted volumes by 50 basis points in Q2. He stated that he expects the segment to return to a normal incremental margin profile in the second half of the year.

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Josh Spector's questions to PPG INDUSTRIES (PPG) leadership • Q4 2024

Question

Josh Spector's team asked for a breakdown of recent pricing performance between the new Architectural and Performance segments and the pricing assumptions for 2025.

Answer

CFO Vince Morales did not provide specific quantitative splits but offered a qualitative ranking of pricing power. He stated that the Performance segment typically achieves the best pricing due to its high impact on customer productivity. Global Architectural pricing is steady and good, while Industrial pricing is more dependent on the raw material environment and technology differentiation.

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Josh Spector's questions to Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS sought clarification on the one-time nature of the pricing true-up in Mobility and asked for the rationale behind the expected year-over-year sales growth in Performance Coatings in Q4, given the soft Refinish outlook.

Answer

CFO Carl Anderson clarified that while some Mobility pricing actions were one-time, others are sustainable, such as new business wins in Brazil. He expressed confidence in delivering full-year Mobility margins well above 17%. For Q4 Performance Coatings, Anderson explained that while year-over-year Refinish comps are tough, the business has shown sequential stability from Q1 through the Q3 guide, and they expect a pickup in Q4 based on channel and EMEA trends.

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Josh Spector's questions to ECOLAB (ECL) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to ECOLAB (ECL) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS asked for quantification of the current reinvestment rate versus prior plans, where the investment is going given that SG&A is down, and the expected payback timeline.

Answer

Christophe Beck, Chairman & CEO, estimated the incremental investment at roughly one percentage point in CapEx and half a point in SG&A, focused on sales firepower, digital tech, and the One Ecolab platform. He used Life Sciences as an example of the payback strategy, where the underlying margin (mid-20s) is higher than the reported margin (mid-teens), with the difference being reinvested for long-term growth.

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Josh Spector's questions to ECOLAB (ECL) leadership • Q4 2024

Question

Josh Spector's office asked for clarification on the financial impact of moving a portion of the Healthcare business to the Institutional segment and the profile of the remaining Life Sciences business.

Answer

Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO, clarified that moving the ~$0.5B, low-margin Healthcare business will impact the Institutional segment's top line and margin by about one percentage point. The remaining standalone Life Sciences business has sales between $500M-$1B and a strong underlying OI margin in the mid-20s, though heavy investment currently brings the reported margin to the low-to-mid-teens.

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Josh Spector's questions to OLIN (OLN) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to OLIN (OLN) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS asked for more details on the 'Beyond 250' cost savings program, including the timing of the $70-90 million in savings and how the Freeport site's structure impacts these efforts.

Answer

President and CEO Ken Lane clarified that the program extends beyond Freeport to other sites like McIntosh and focuses on right-sizing infrastructure and reducing reliance on contractors. CFO Todd Slater added that Olin expects to realize $50-70 million of these savings in 2025, with an improved run-rate exiting the year. He also highlighted the separate structural cost reductions in the Epoxy business set to begin in 2026.

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Josh Spector's questions to CORNING INC /NY (GLW) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to CORNING INC /NY (GLW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector asked for the drivers behind the strong incremental pre-tax EBIT margin of approximately 50% implied in the Q3 guidance, which is significantly higher than the recent run rate.

Answer

CFO Ed Schlesinger attributed the strong incremental margin to sales growth leveraging an existing cost structure and disciplined opex management. CEO Wendell Weeks added that this is a core tenet of the SpringBoard plan, as the company is now benefiting from prior investments in manufacturing and technical capabilities, leading to enhanced profitability as sales grow.

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Josh Spector's questions to CORNING INC /NY (GLW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector questioned the drivers behind the strong incremental margin implied in the Q3 guidance, which appears higher than the recent trend, asking if it was due to mix, cost savings, or other factors.

Answer

EVP & CFO Ed Schlesinger and Chairman & CEO Wendell Weeks both affirmed that strong incremental margins are a core element of the SpringBoard plan. With significant manufacturing capacity and technical capabilities already in place, higher sales translate directly into enhanced profitability, and the company is simply making faster progress than initially planned.

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Josh Spector's questions to RPM INTERNATIONAL INC/DE/ (RPM) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to RPM INTERNATIONAL INC/DE/ (RPM) leadership • Q4 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS followed up on raw material inflation, asking for the latest view for the year and clarification on whether the current 1-2% inflation rate is a mitigated figure or expected to increase.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Frank Sullivan clarified that the 1-2% inflation figure is what the company is currently seeing in Q1, with the impact disproportionately weighted towards the Consumer business due to packaging, propellants, and some pigments. He noted the unmitigated impact of tariffs could be 4-5% for the year, but the future trajectory remains uncertain.

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Josh Spector's questions to Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS questioned the financial impact of the aluminum pricing lag in Europe during Q2 and its potential for recovery. He also pointed out the conservative implied Q4 guidance, which suggests a significant year-over-year decline in EBITDA.

Answer

CEO Oliver Graham and CFO Stefan Schellinger explained the aluminum timing impact was due to price and currency movements and is not expected to reverse in the near term. Regarding the Q4 outlook, Schellinger cited ongoing cost headwinds in Europe, a strong prior-year comparison, and an anticipated slowdown in Brazil's outsized volume growth as key reasons for the cautious guidance.

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Josh Spector's questions to DOW (DOW) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to DOW (DOW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group AG asked about Dow's polyethylene operating rates, inquiring if lower rates contributed to the Q2 EBITDA weakness and whether a significant improvement is assumed in the Q3 guidance.

Answer

COO Karen Carter acknowledged that industry operating rates dropped in Q2, particularly in April, due to tariff-related export disruptions. She stated that North American industry rates are now above 90%. For Q3, she confirmed Dow expects earnings improvement driven by both anticipated price increases and volume uplift from the new, fully sold-out PolySeven train, leading to higher operating rates for Dow.

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Josh Spector's questions to Avery Dennison (AVY) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Avery Dennison (AVY) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group AG asked about the financial impact of tariffs in Q2 and Q3, specifically questioning whether the company was able to fully offset the increased costs within the quarter through pricing and sourcing adjustments or if there is a timing lag.

Answer

SVP & CFO Greg Lovins stated that the tariff impact, which began mid-Q2, was a very low single-digit inflationary effect that was largely offset within the quarter by a combination of strategic surcharges and sourcing shifts. He anticipates a full-quarter impact in Q3 but expects to continue offsetting it with the same measures, pending any new tariff announcements.

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Josh Spector's questions to Avery Dennison (AVY) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group AG asked about the financial impact of tariffs in Q2 and Q3, specifically questioning whether the company was fully offsetting the increased costs within the quarter or if there was a timing lag.

Answer

SVP & CFO Greg Lovins clarified that the tariff-related inflation began mid-Q2 and was largely offset within the quarter through a combination of pricing surcharges and strategic sourcing shifts. He anticipates a further sequential cost increase in Q3 due to the full-quarter impact but expects to manage it similarly, pending potential new tariff actions.

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Josh Spector's questions to Avery Dennison (AVY) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group inquired about the tariff cost impact, asking if the company was fully offsetting the costs within Q2 and Q3 through pricing and sourcing shifts, or if there was a lag in recovery.

Answer

SVP & CFO Greg Lovins explained that the tariff inflation began mid-Q2 and was largely offset within the quarter through a combination of strategic sourcing adjustments and tariff-related pricing surcharges. He noted that there will be a sequential increase in the cost impact in Q3 due to a full quarter's effect, but the company expects to continue offsetting it with the same measures.

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Josh Spector's questions to SHERWIN WILLIAMS (SHW) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to SHERWIN WILLIAMS (SHW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector of UBS Group AG asked a series of follow-up questions regarding SG&A, seeking to clarify the basis for guidance, the recovery of one-time costs, and the quantifiable EBIT impact from production inefficiencies in the second half.

Answer

SVP of Finance & CFO Al Mestyshin clarified that the low single-digit SG&A growth guidance for the second half includes the new building costs, which add about 1.5%. He also quantified the impact of lower production, stating that it accounts for roughly 20% of the gross profit reduction in the revised full-year outlook, with the other 80% due to lower sales volumes.

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Josh Spector's questions to SHERWIN WILLIAMS (SHW) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Josh Spector from UBS Group AG asked for several clarifications, including the basis for SG&A growth guidance, the amount of one-time costs that will reverse next year, and the size of the EBIT impact from lower production volumes.

Answer

CFO Allen Mistysyn clarified the SG&A figures, noting the new building adds about 1.5% to second-half growth. He quantified the gross profit reduction for the year, stating that approximately 80% is due to lower sales volumes and 20% is from the unfavorable impact of lower production on the global supply chain.

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Josh Spector's questions to Ingredion (INGR) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to Ingredion (INGR) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

An analyst on behalf of Josh Spector from UBS asked about the negative price/mix trend in the Texture and Healthful Solutions (THS) segment and the outlook for this metric. He also inquired about the strength of customer reformulation conversations.

Answer

CFO Jim Gray explained that the negative price/mix in THS is a result of lapping high single-digit increases in 2024 and passing through lower corn costs. He expects this impact to become 'very de minimis' for the rest of the year. CEO Jim Zallie added that this follows two years of robust price/mix growth and that the company is now seeing strong volume growth and price stability. Both executives reiterated that customer engagement on innovation remains high.

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Josh Spector's questions to ALBEMARLE (ALB) leadership

Josh Spector's questions to ALBEMARLE (ALB) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Chris Perrella, on for Josh Spector of UBS, asked for clarification on the Energy Storage margin trajectory for 2025 and inquired about the company's long-term maintenance capital expenditure level.

Answer

CFO Neal Sheorey explained that Q2 margins will be lower than Q1 due to a sales mix shift towards more spot-priced volumes as overall volumes ramp up. CEO Jerry Masters and CFO Neal Sheorey clarified that while the long-term CapEx target is ~6% of revenue, the current sustaining capital run-rate is in the $400-$500 million range.

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