Joshua Spector

Joshua Spector asked about the trajectory of the apparel market following larger-than-expected declines in Q4, considering semi-resilient sellout, and how apparel producers' plans might create tailwinds or headwinds, especially with Q1 tough comps and Q2 easier comps.

Answer

President and CEO Deon Stander attributed the Q4 decline to high tariff uncertainty and a shift in retailer supply chain management (less forward placing, more chasing). He noted that retail growth was largely price-related, not unit-related, with inventory sales ratios at pandemic lows. He anticipates growth this year, but Q1 will be challenging due to a non-tariff impacted Q1 2025 comp, with continued caution from retailers.

Joshua Spector questioned the trajectory of the apparel market following Q4 declines, considering challenging Q1 2026 comparisons and easier Q2 comparisons, and sought management's insights into apparel producers' plans.

Answer

Deon Stander, President and CEO, attributed the Q4 apparel decline (approximately 7%) to ongoing tariff uncertainty, retailers' shift to less forward placing and more chasing, and a focus on protecting margins over volume. He noted that retail growth was primarily price-related, not unit-related. He anticipates growth later in 2026, but Q1 will be challenging due to strong, non-tariff impacted Q1 2025 comps, with continued caution expected from retailers regarding discretionary spending.

Joshua Spector asked about Solutions Group margins, questioning the small sequential EBITDA increase despite higher sales and seeking the outlook for incremental margins in 2025.

Answer

SVP & Interim CFO Danny Allouche cited negative mix as the primary driver, as high-value solutions were down in the quarter, along with minor costs from a new plant in Mexico. For 2025, he expects margins to expand as high-value growth accelerates. Executive John Eble added that this improved mix could result in above-average incremental margins.

Joshua Spector asked about the expected profit margins for the RFID food opportunity, specifically whether it would be in line with, below, or above the current average for the RFID business.

Answer

President and CEO Deon Stander responded that the Intelligent Labels platform operates at an above-segment margin overall. He clarified that while the average selling price (ASP) may vary by application, the company typically achieves relatively consistent, above-average segment margins across all categories, including food.

Joshua Spector asked about the impact of shutdowns and outages, some outside of LyondellBasell's control, on the Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia, and International (O&P EAI) segment in Q4, and the expected recovery in Q1.

Answer

EVP of Global Olefins and Polyolefins Kimberly Foley stated that the olefins impact for the O&P EAI segment in Q4 was $35 million.

Joshua Spector asked about the impact of shutdowns and outages on the Olefins EAI segment in the fourth quarter and the expected recovery in the first quarter.

Answer

EVP of Global Olefins and Polyolefins Kimberly Foley stated that the olefins impact for the EAI segment in the fourth quarter was $35 million.

Joshua Spector of UBS asked a long-term question about the U.S. asset mix, specifically what the cracker feed slate might look like in 5-6 years with the addition of bio-based and recycled feedstocks, and whether the company would invest to offset any potential ethylene capacity derating.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker clarified the strategy is market-driven by demand for circular products, not a push to change the feed slate. EVP Kim Foley added this is a low-cost method to enter a new market by leveraging existing flexible crackers and optimizing the feed slate for profitability. Vanacker also highlighted the capital efficiency of retrofitting existing assets over building new ones.

Joshua Spector followed up on Darrow and CBAM, asking how Air Products would respond if Yara needed more time to assess CBAM regulations, specifically if this would trigger a plan B or if Air Products would accept the delay.

Answer

Eduardo Menezes, Chief Executive Officer, described the situation as theoretical but emphasized that the base case is to stop the Darrow project as initially proposed. He views the current negotiations with Yara as an 'option' to generate value from the project, with the two outcomes being either not going forward or proceeding with a 'good project' based on capital cost certainty.

Joshua Spector followed up on the Darrow project, asking about Air Products' strategy if Yara delays its decision due to CBAM uncertainty, and whether the company would accept such delays or pursue alternative plans.

Answer

Eduardo Menezes, Chief Executive Officer, explained that the base case for the Darrow project is that it is stopped, and the current efforts are to find a solution to generate value. He emphasized that finding a world-class partner like Yara to take the commercial risk on ammonia was the most difficult step. He stated that the company has only two possibilities: not going forward, or going forward with a good project, viewing the current situation as a 'free option' for shareholders.

Joshua Spector of UBS sought confirmation that the company's projection for positive cash flow in 2026 is after accounting for the dividend. He also asked about the macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the company's financial guidance for the remainder of 2025 and the medium term.

Answer

Executive Melissa Schaeffer explicitly confirmed that the projection for positive cash flow is after the dividend. CEO Eduardo Menezes stated that the guidance assumes not 'a lot of help' from the broader economy and noted that potential tariffs are a bigger risk to capital project costs than to the day-to-day operational business.

Joshua Spector of UBS Group AG sought clarification on whether the "pricing actions" mentioned for the second half were primarily for recovering energy costs or included other initiatives. He also asked about the appropriate run rate for corporate costs.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Melissa Schaeffer specified that pricing actions in Europe are focused on recovering higher power costs, which occurs with a one-month to one-quarter lag. Regarding corporate costs, she explained the Q1 figure was elevated due to inflation and higher incentive compensation accruals compared to the prior year, with productivity benefits expected to ramp up in the second half.

Joshua Spector asked for assurance on the NEOM offtake contract, questioning if any regulatory or credit-related qualifying events were needed for it to be effective. He also inquired about the company's approach to project returns when using leverage versus an unlevered basis.

Answer

EVP and General Counsel Sean Major affirmed that the NEOM contract is consistent with similar offtake agreements and the company is confident it will be fully operational. Chairman, President and CEO Seifi Ghasemi clarified that all projects are evaluated based on their unlevered IRR. The use of project financing is a subsequent step that can enhance the return on equity but does not change the initial investment criteria.

Joshua Spector asked about Meta's share of Corning's enterprise sales today versus after the new agreement, and whether Corning is adding capacity to match the added sales or if capacity might tighten. He also questioned if Corning is capturing more share of the hyperscaler market.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Wendell Weeks clarified that Meta was one of several hyperscalers contributing to the $3 billion enterprise business, which grew 60% in 2025. He emphasized that other similar-sized agreements are being concluded, suggesting the overall 'pie' is growing rather than a shift in Meta's relative share. He also noted that Corning's new products are increasing demand for their offerings due to unique advantages.

Joshua Spector inquired about Meta's proportional share of Corning's enterprise sales post-agreement, whether added capacity specifically matches Meta's purchases, and if Corning is capturing more share of the hyperscaler market.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Wendell Weeks clarified that the Meta agreement signifies continued high growth, with other similar agreements being concluded, indicating an overall expansion of the hyperscaler market rather than a shift in existing shares. EVP and CFO Ed Schlesinger added that the hyperscale portion of the enterprise business grew almost double the 60% total enterprise growth in 2025.

Joshua Spector asked about the optical sales performance, specifically inquiring about any timing effects between Q3 and Q4 that might have impacted sales, and whether the current growth run rate is sustainable given other optical players' expectations.

Answer

Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Ed Schlesinger highlighted the significant growth in the data center business, with sales increasing from $1.3 billion in 2023 to an annualized run rate of $3.3 billion in Q3 2025, and strong growth in the carrier business. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Wendell Weeks emphasized robust customer demand, tight supply, and ongoing discussions with customers to de-risk capacity investments due to accelerating growth.

Joshua Spector of UBS Group AG followed up on the Acetyls business, asking what is needed to improve its earnings power—whether it's market-driven demand and utilization or further controllable actions, and if more operational adjustments are required.

Answer

CEO & President Scott A. Richardson highlighted that the business is achieving over 20% EBITDA margins despite historically low Western Hemisphere demand. He emphasized that the key to higher earnings is a recovery in Western Hemisphere volume, noting that a 3% volume change in the region's non-tow business equates to about $10 million in quarterly earnings.

Joshua Spector of UBS Group AG requested a breakdown of the earnings power gap in the Acetyls business, asking whether recovery depends more on market factors like demand or on controllable actions by the company.

Answer

CEO & President Scott A. Richardson emphasized that the team is achieving over 20% EBITDA margins despite historically low Western Hemisphere demand. He stated that recovery is primarily about volume improvement in the Western Hemisphere, as profitability there is key. He provided a rule of thumb: a 3% volume change in Western Hemisphere non-tow acetyls equates to about $10 million in quarterly earnings, highlighting the significant leverage to a volume recovery.

Joshua Spector from UBS Group AG requested a breakdown of the earnings power gap in the Acetyls business, distinguishing between tow destocking and core acetyls performance, and asked whether a market recovery or controllable actions were more critical for improvement.

Answer

CEO Scott A. Richardson emphasized that the core issue is historically low demand volume in the Western Hemisphere, not just tow destocking. He noted the business is still achieving over 20% EBITDA margins despite this. He highlighted the significant earnings leverage to a volume recovery, stating that a 3% volume change in Western Hemisphere non-tow products equates to about $10 million per quarter in earnings.

Joshua Spector asked about the impact of tariffs on the flexibility of the Acetyl Chain and sought clarification on the nature of the 9% of China sales originating from the U.S.

Answer

CEO Scott Richardson clarified that tariffs have minimal impact on the Acetyl Chain, which largely operates on a 'China for China' model. He explained that the tariff headwind and the sales from the U.S. to China are almost entirely related to the Engineered Materials segment. He added that Celanese has the ability to mitigate about half of this EM exposure by shifting production.

Joshua Spector of UBS questioned the current earnings power of the Engineered Materials segment, asking if there was structural impairment in areas like nylon, and what factors offset Q3 volume growth.

Answer

CEO Lori Ryerkerk reaffirmed confidence in the EM portfolio, noting that while standard nylon faces pressure, other acquired product lines are outperforming. COO Scott Richardson explained that Q3 EBIT was negatively impacted by inventory timing effects and price degradation in standard grade products, which offset volume and synergy benefits.

Joshua Spector followed up on Iran, asking if sanctions on shippers could create a supply bottleneck, and questioned the accounting for debt from the OCI acquisition on the balance sheet.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Rich Sumner stated that Iran's 'shadow fleet' has so far proven adequate to get product to market. CFO & SVP - Finance Dean Richardson explained that the Natgasoline JV debt is not consolidated on the balance sheet due to equity accounting rules, which is why the gross debt figure did not increase as much as expected.

Joshua Spector asked about the price support level for methanol in China, considering recent movements in coal prices. He also inquired about the potential impact of U.S.-China tariffs on methanol trade flows and how a theoretical downturn in Chinese demand would affect imports versus domestic production.

Answer

Executive Rich Sumner stated that the China cost curve is firm in the $270-$280 per tonne range, supported by government-targeted coal prices and MTO affordability. He noted that while there are no direct U.S.-to-China methanol flows, the main risk from tariffs is a potential slowdown in Chinese export manufacturing, though the impact on methanol demand is expected to be minimal. In an oversupply scenario, he would expect moderation in coastal China operating rates.

Joshua Spector asked for clarification on the $50 million tariff impact not being included in guidance and whether the Brazilian real (BRL) currency exposure is hedged or still volatile.

Answer

CEO Chuck Magro explained the $50 million tariff impact is a manageable gross figure that they expect to mitigate, and it was kept separate to provide a clear view of core business performance. CFO David Johnson addressed the BRL exposure, noting 85% is in the second half. The company is over 80% hedged for Q3 and under 20% for Q4, with the current situation being slightly favorable to their guide but balanced by other factors.

Joshua Spector questioned the mechanics of the 2025 guidance update, asking why the top end of the range was lowered by $200 million when the FX headwind was smaller, and why the bottom end was left unchanged.

Answer

CFO David Johnson explained that the guidance range was narrowed as it became official, and the midpoint reduction was almost entirely due to FX. CEO Charles Magro added that reaching the previous high end would have required the Crop Protection market to return to growth, which is now forecast to be flat. The lower end was maintained to account for risks like a stronger U.S. dollar or weaker-than-expected market conditions.

An analyst on behalf of Joshua Spector sought clarification on the 2025 Crop Protection outlook, specifically if it implies mid-single-digit volume growth offset by a low-single-digit price decline.

Answer

CEO Chuck Magro confirmed that while the overall industry is expected to be flat, Corteva anticipates outperforming with mid-single-digit volume growth. This growth will be driven by new technologies and biologicals. He noted positive signs of stabilization in the crop protection market, with Corteva's business seeing its second consecutive quarter of volume growth.

Joshua Spector from UBS inquired about the potential impact of tariffs, asking if the 2-3% EBITDA risk is cost-related and how much can be offset. He also questioned the secondary sales exposure from customers selling to China, the outlook for the suppressants business given tough year-over-year comparisons, and the competitive dynamics in fire retardants following a competitor's market exit.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Kyle Sable clarified that the tariff exposure is almost entirely cost-based, and the company expects to mitigate a reasonable portion. He noted minimal indirect sales impact and confirmed Q1 was a tough comparison for suppressants, which should improve. Chief Executive Officer Haitham Khouri addressed the competitive landscape, stating that while a non-ammonium phosphate alternative is now less likely, Perimeter remains focused on being the "gold standard" through heavy investment in R&D, equipment, and customer service to deter new entrants.

Joshua Spector of UBS inquired about the Q1 plant outages, asking for details on the financial impact, whether costs would linger into Q2, and the risk of future reliability issues. He also asked about the expected earnings cadence for Q2 and the macroeconomic assumptions embedded in the full-year guidance.

Answer

CEO Corning Painter explained that the Q1 outages were an unusual clustering of issues related to aged facilities, but the plants are now operating well. CFO Jeff Glajch detailed the financial impact, noting the ~$13 million was specific to the Rubber segment and primarily consisted of downtime, fixed cost absorption, and timing costs, which are contained in Q1. For Q2, Glajch anticipates an inventory hit from lower oil prices but expects a step-up in Q3. Painter added that the company expects demand to build in the second half due to tariffs.

Joshua Spector from UBS inquired about the macroeconomic assumptions embedded in the 2025 guidance, particularly concerning volumes and tire import pressures. He also asked about the key variables for the guidance range, the nature of the recovery in China, the potential 2026 earnings contribution from the La Porte plant, and the financial risk if Russian carbon black supply returns to Europe.

Answer

CFO Jeffrey Glajch explained that the guidance midpoint is driven by mid-single-digit rubber volume growth from new contracts, specialty volume growth, a ~$10 million operational improvement in China, and $10-15 million from specialty mix and cogen, not from macro improvements. CEO Corning Painter added that the guidance assumes no relief from tire import pressures. He clarified the China recovery is a mix of better cost absorption and incremental premium volume. Painter stated the La Porte plant would likely be a net negative to EBITDA in 2026 due to ramp-up costs and that Russian supply would likely displace other imports, not local European production, mitigating the risk.

Joshua Spector from UBS inquired about Orion's Rubber segment, asking if volumes have troughed and whether the flat gross profit per ton outlook for 2025 was conservative or reflected pricing trade-offs for volume gains. He also questioned if Specialty segment growth was market-driven or due to company-specific factors like the Huaibei plant ramp-up, and followed up on the specific financial drag from Huaibei in 2024 and its expected contribution in 2025.

Answer

CEO Corning Painter explained that the positive 2025 outlook stems from normalizing tire imports, customer strategies to regain market share, and potential tariffs, not just contract wins. He described contract negotiations as positive but avoided specific pricing details due to their ongoing nature. For the Specialty segment, he cited debottlenecking and infrastructure demand as key drivers. Regarding the Huaibei plant, CFO Jeff Glajch quantified a potential ~$20 million EBITDA benefit over time compared to 2024, with roughly half of that expected in 2025.

Joshua Spector from UBS inquired about the 2-3% EBITDA exposure risk from tariffs, potential indirect sales impacts, the outlook for the suppressants business given tough comps, and the competitive landscape for fire retardants following a competitor's market exit.

Answer

CFO Kyle Sable clarified that the tariff risk is almost entirely cost-based and the company expects to mitigate a reasonable portion. He also noted that Q1 had an unusually tough comp for suppressants, which should ease through the year. CEO Haitham Khouri added that while a competitor exited, Perimeter remains the 'gold standard' in retardants by focusing on R&D and customer service, making new entry difficult.

Joshua Spector of UBS asked for an expansion on the company's comments regarding tariffs, seeking to understand the gross cost impact, the potential for mitigation, and the expected financial effects for 2025 and on a run-rate basis.

Answer

CFO Michael DeVeau explained that IFF's diverse global operations help mitigate tariff impacts, which are primarily related to U.S.-China trade. He quantified the gross exposure at over $100 million for 2025, with a potential run rate of around double that amount. DeVeau emphasized that the company is actively using supply chain optimization and targeted pricing surcharges with the goal of achieving full mitigation over time.

Joshua Spector inquired about the 2025 EBITDA bridge, seeking to understand the negative variances beyond the pharma divestiture and FX, and also asked about the expected EBITDA seasonality for Q1 versus the rest of the year.

Answer

CFO Michael DeVeau detailed the 2025 EBITDA bridge, stating it is primarily driven by volume growth and productivity. He projected that a 2.5% sales growth at a 35% incremental margin would yield 4-5 points of EBITDA growth, with another 2% benefit from net productivity. DeVeau clarified that the $100 million incentive compensation reset is being fully offset by reinvestments, and net price-to-cost is expected to be neutral. Regarding seasonality, he noted that the first half of 2025 will be stronger in absolute dollar terms due to the pharma divestiture closing at the end of Q2, with Q2 typically being the seasonally strongest quarter.

Joshua Spector of UBS questioned the sequential guidance for Q4, noting it appeared to imply more than normal seasonality and sought clarity on the underlying assumptions and any trends causing caution.

Answer

CEO Jon Erik Fyrwald responded that Q4 started as expected but noted a pattern of deceleration in recent quarters. He expressed caution due to limited visibility into December and the potential for customer inventory adjustments, a trend seen in prior years, stating the company wants to ensure it delivers on its promises.

Joshua Spector from UBS followed up on the immersion cooling agreement, asking if the partnership with Navin Fluorine represents a long-term, capital-light manufacturing model or if Chemours will eventually need to build its own large-scale facility. He also asked for a high-level assessment of whether current tariffs are a net positive or negative for the TSS business.

Answer

President and CEO Denise Dignam confirmed the initial Navin Fluorine capacity is for field trials and commercialization development. She stated that while the future manufacturing structure is undecided, the company will explore prudent capital options, including customer partnerships. Regarding tariffs, she characterized the impact as neutral, highlighting Chemours' flexible global supply chain as a key mitigator.

Joshua Spector questioned management's commentary on seeing 'green shoots' in the Titanium Technologies (TT) business, contrasting it with the forecast for sequentially flat volumes and negative regional mix headwinds in Q1. He asked for clarification on what was driving the optimism and the specifics of the regional mix shift.

Answer

CEO Denise Dignam explained that the 'green shoots' refer to early signs of market share gains in Europe, as high-quality TiO2 exports from China have declined. She also cited improving macro indicators like the U.S. housing market index. She clarified the Q1 headwind is a temporary regional mix shift toward Europe and away from North America, which she expects to reverse as the U.S. coatings season begins in Q2.

Joshua Spector questioned the 2025 TSS margin guidance, asking why it wouldn't be higher than 30% given the high-margin Corpus Christi facility coming online. He also asked for clarity on the timing for realizing the newly announced $250 million in cost savings.

Answer

CFO Shane Hostetter explained that the 'greater than 30%' margin guidance for TSS in 2025 already incorporates several factors, including costs for purchasing quota, raw material mix shifts, and sourcing dynamics, which offset some benefits from the new Corpus Christi production. Regarding the cost savings, Hostetter clarified that the $250 million is an incremental target for 2025-2027, with approximately 50% expected to be achieved on a run-rate basis by the end of 2025, with the impact weighted towards the second half of the year.

An analyst on behalf of Joshua Spector asked about the confidence in the updated EBITDA phasing, which implies stronger second-half growth despite a weaker macro environment.

Answer

CFO Carl Anderson explained that the second-half weighting of EBITDA is similar to the prior year. Confidence is supported by the ramp-up of significant new business wins, particularly in Brazil, which will provide a tailwind in Q3 and Q4. He also anticipates greater stabilization in the Refinish and Industrial markets in the back half of the year.

Josh Spector asked for clarification on the underlying EBIT growth in the North and Central America segment and what EBIT leverage should be expected from future volume growth in the region.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher explained that the company's 2-to-1 volume-to-EBIT leverage target is an enterprise-wide metric, not specific to any single region. For North America, he expects the earnings profile to be maintained, with any slight increase in total comparable operating earnings being influenced by product mix rather than significant margin expansion.

Joshua Spector requested clarification on the implied Q4 EPS growth given the reiterated full-year guidance. He also asked about the potential for cost savings and earnings performance in a scenario where 2025 volumes are flat.

Answer

CFO Howard Yu explained that Q4 EPS is expected to grow in the mid-single-digit range, consistent with the full-year target. He noted a couple of cents were pulled into Q3 from insurance proceeds, slightly affecting the Q4 number. Regarding a flat volume scenario for 2025, Yu emphasized the focus on controllable operational efficiencies and stated more detailed 2025 commentary would be provided with Q4 earnings.

Joshua Spector requested the explicit volume assumption for the Protective segment in the second half of the year and asked about the equipment business, specifically its sourcing and potential risk from China tariffs.

Answer

President and CEO Dustin Semach stated that the volume assumption for Protective in the second half is a decline of about 1%. Regarding equipment, he explained that USMCA exemptions have significantly minimized direct tariff exposure, and any remaining impact is viewed as manageable through supply chain adjustments. He added that the equipment business is performing in line with expectations, with a book-to-bill ratio above 1 in Q1.

Joshua Spector asked for details on the 2% price growth forecasted for the Food segment, questioning the visibility from contracts or pass-throughs and why it seems higher than typical.

Answer

CEO Dustin Semach explained that the price increase is driven by two factors. First, the company is already benefiting from formula-based pricing pass-throughs in North America, reflecting resin cost movements from the back half of 2024. Second, the company has been able to take modest, direct price increases that reflect the value proposition of its portfolios in a more stable input cost environment.

Joshua Spector questioned the 2% price growth assumption within the Food segment's guidance, noting it seemed about a point higher than typical. He asked for more detail on the visibility of achieving this, whether through contracts, pass-throughs, or other unique factors.

Answer

CEO Dustin Semach explained that the price growth is driven by two main factors. First, the company is already benefiting from formula-based pricing pass-throughs in North America, reflecting resin cost movements from the back half of 2024. Second, the company has been able to implement modest price increases that reflect the portfolio's strong value proposition. He added that the pricing environment is now more stable than in recent volatile years.

Joshua Spector asked if the strategic reorganization into two distinct segments changes the company's willingness to consider divestments or carve-outs, particularly for the Protective business.

Answer

CEO Patrick Kivits responded that the company is currently "laser focused on operationalizing" the new structure to improve performance internally. He stated that while they always evaluate opportunities for footprint rationalization, they are comfortable with the current portfolio and are focused on driving change within the existing businesses.

Joshua Spector from UBS Group AG asked for clarification on the balance between normal seasonal improvements and China destocking in the Performance Chemicals segment. He also requested details on the cadence and permanence of the announced $30 million in cost savings.

Answer

CEO and President Sean Keohane confirmed that normal seasonal upticks in applications like agriculture and decorative coatings are occurring but are being tempered by a general cautious customer posture on inventory due to tariff uncertainty. EVP and CFO Erica McLaughlin explained the $30 million in cost savings is a mix of temporary and structural actions, with about one-third recognized in the first half (mostly Q2) and the remaining two-thirds expected ratably over the second half of the year.

Joshua Spector asked about MDI trade balances, specifically if European imports could fill the void left by Chinese products in the U.S. He also inquired about the flexibility to increase spreads in U.S. contracts that have raw material pass-through mechanisms.

Answer

CEO Peter Huntsman expressed strong doubt that Europe could competitively backfill Asian MDI imports into the U.S., citing Europe's higher manufacturing costs, duties, and transportation expenses, making it economically unviable. Regarding contracts, he explained that while just under 50% of North American volume has some form of price pass-through, these contracts typically have 'pit stops' every 3-6 months, allowing for renegotiation of the margin component separate from raw material costs.

Joshua Spector questioned why corporate costs haven't declined more despite savings programs and asked for clarification on the strategy for the European downstream systems house business.

Answer

CFO Phil Lister explained that underlying cost reductions have been partially offset by inflation, LIFO losses, and FX impacts. CEO Peter Huntsman clarified the European strategy is to align their footprint with reduced demand by consolidating into the most efficient facilities and removing excess capacity.

Joshua Spector asked if the potential Covestro-ADNOC deal, which might keep European capacity intact, could impede an MDI market recovery for Huntsman. He also questioned if the company could achieve its mid-teens margin target for Polyurethanes if European costs remain high and demand lags.

Answer

Chairman, CEO and President Peter Huntsman stated he had no insight into Covestro/ADNOC's plans but speculated they would avoid disruptive actions before the deal closes. He affirmed his belief that Huntsman could still achieve its earnings power, suggesting that any weakness in Europe could be offset by moving more production downstream in the more competitive North American and Asian regions.

Joshua Spector of UBS Group AG requested a year-over-year EBITDA bridge for the Winchester segment, breaking down the decline between lost volumes and higher costs, and asked for sequential guidance for Winchester's Q2 EBITDA.

Answer

President and CEO Kenneth Lane projected a slight sequential improvement for Winchester in Q2, partly due to seasonality in the acquired White Flyer business and modest commercial demand recovery. CFO Todd Slater provided the Q1 year-over-year bridge, attributing roughly two-thirds of the decline to volume and price, and one-third to higher commodity and propellant costs.

Joshua Spector from UBS questioned the Q4 guidance for Chlor Alkali Vinyls, noting that excluding hurricane impacts, earnings appear lower than Q1 despite higher caustic prices. He also asked for clarification on the sequential decline shown for chlorine pricing.

Answer

President and CEO Kenneth Lane attributed the overall Q4 outlook to the lingering $25 million hurricane impact and, more significantly, lower expected profitability from Winchester due to seasonality and destocking. For Chlor Alkali specifically, he confirmed caustic pricing is better than Q1. Lane clarified that the apparent sequential decline in chlorine pricing was purely a product mix effect resulting from the hurricane-related downtime and does not reflect a change in strategy.

Joshua Spector questioned the decision to maintain full-year guidance while highlighting a new tariff impact, and asked for an update on the China anticompetitive review of the Tyvek business.

Answer

CFO Antonella Franzen explained that guidance was kept 'clean' to reflect underlying operational performance amid tariff uncertainty, with ongoing mitigation efforts. CEO Lori Koch addressed the Tyvek inquiry, stating they see no risk of the investigation spreading, exposure is minimal (less than 1% of sales), and business operations are unaffected.

Joshua Spector questioned why the Q1 growth guidance for IndustrialsCo appears low given the easy comparison and asked for the rationale behind pausing share buybacks.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch explained that the Q1 comparison for the automotive portion of the new DuPont is less favorable than it seems, impacting the overall growth rate. CFO Antonella Franzen reiterated that share buybacks are on hold until after the separation, as cash is being prioritized for transaction-related costs.

Joshua Spector of UBS questioned whether alternatives to the planned spins, such as a sale or RMT, were still being explored for the water or electronics businesses. He also asked if the current level of investment and variable compensation is back to normal or still constrained.

Answer

Executive Chairman Ed Breen stated definitively that the plan is to proceed with the separations of both water and electronics, with no alternatives being explored. CEO Lori Koch explained that while there are some growth investments in electronics, spending is not 'gangbusters' and the company remains disciplined on costs, particularly fixed costs, which is helping drive margin recovery.

Joshua Spector from UBS questioned the profitability of Westlake's PVC exports within the PEM segment. He also asked if the company needs to adjust operations at its less advantaged U.S. assets, particularly those that are net short ethylene.

Answer

M. Bender, EVP and CFO, stated that while the export margin for PVC is narrow, it remains positive. He confirmed that domestic PVC prices reflect export prices and that there is no current need to flex the manufacturing chain or reduce operations at the front end.

Joshua Spector inquired about the drivers of the sequential price decline in the PEM segment, asking if it was due to a higher mix of spot or export sales. He also asked for comments on realized domestic PVC pricing following recent adjustments by industry consultants.

Answer

EVP and CFO Steve Bender attributed the sequential price change more to product mix within Westlake's diverse portfolio rather than a shift between export and domestic sales. Regarding PVC, he noted that recent upward revisions in settlement expectations by consultants signal market strength, which supports Westlake's price increase nominations across its product slate.

On behalf of Joshua Spector from UBS, Chris Perrella asked about the impact of higher raw material costs on HIP segment EBITDA in Q3 and Q4, and about the performance of the Vinnolit business in Europe.

Answer

EVP and CFO Steve Bender explained that the HIP segment successfully maintained healthy sales prices, which offset higher PVC costs, leading to relatively flat average selling prices sequentially. Regarding Vinnolit, he noted that while the slower European construction market constrains pricing, the business's specialty PVC portfolio continues to deliver good results relative to commodity products.

Joshua Spector from UBS asked for clarification on the comment about a 'more pragmatic decarbonization approach' in Europe and what opportunities this creates for Linde.

Answer

Sanjiv Lamba, CEO, explained that the pragmatism relates to a growing acceptance in Europe of low-carbon (blue) hydrogen as a cost-competitive decarbonization solution. This shift could lead to regulatory changes that support carbon capture and sequestration, creating opportunities for projects like the one Linde is developing with Equinor, by acknowledging the role of blue hydrogen in the energy transition.

Joshua Spector asked for clarification on the performance of the electronics business, noting its strong year-over-year growth but slight sequential decline, and what is assumed in the Q4 guidance.

Answer

CEO Sanjiv Lamba explained that while gas sales to electronics customers were up sequentially, the overall segment was impacted by inventory destocking in the advanced materials (LAMT) business, which supplies components to the industry. He expressed confidence that this destocking will normalize in Q4, leading to solid sequential growth for the electronics business overall.

Joshua Spector of UBS sought to clarify whether weaker demand in Personal Care was due to destocking or macro factors, and if the mentioned share loss in coatings additives in Asia was a new development.

Answer

General Manager Jim Minicucci and CEO Guillermo Novo clarified the weakness is not from destocking but from softer demand in Europe and specific customer dynamics, particularly in oral care timing. Novo confirmed the share pressure in Asia for coatings is not new and is consistent with prior commentary on competitive intensity. The newer softness is related to muted market demand in North America and Europe.

Joshua Spector sought to clarify if order visibility for Q2 had declined since the last update and asked about the level of confidence and visibility into the specific pharma share gains expected in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Guillermo Novo clarified that visibility for Q2 has not changed and remains normal; his comments were about the March-September period being most critical for the full-year outlook. Alessandra Faccin, EVP & GM of Life Sciences, confirmed they have visibility into share gains, stating that contract negotiations are mostly finalized and they are actively regaining business in Asia and Latin America.

Joshua Spector of UBS asked for a bridge to the midpoint of the full-year EPS guidance, questioning what needs to sequentially improve in the second half of the year compared to the first half.

Answer

CFO Vince Morales explained that historical seasonality has changed due to recent divestitures. He pointed to several factors that will aid H2 performance: weaker comps from last year's industrial activity, the launch of share gains in industrial, additional benefits from self-help programs, and some improvement in Europe. These factors will affect the year-over-year seasonality comparisons.

Joshua Spector questioned management's confidence in its long-term 8-12% EPS growth framework, noting that performance is below the low end this year despite raw material tailwinds, and asked if the target is too high for 2025.

Answer

SVP and CFO Vince Morales noted the divestiture would be slightly accretive if proceeds are used for buybacks. Chairman and CEO Timothy Knavish expressed continued confidence in the long-term goals over a full cycle, highlighting current momentum in aerospace and refinish, improving volume comps, and the strategic benefits of a more focused portfolio.

Joshua Spector from UBS asked about the outlook for SG&A expenses, noting the strong control in Q1, and questioned if additional cost-saving levers are being pulled to achieve this year's goals.

Answer

CFO Scott Kirkland acknowledged that Q1 SG&A was better than expected, helped by the 'One Ecolab' program delivering 30 basis points of leverage year-over-year. He reiterated guidance for 20-30 basis points of SG&A leverage for the full year, likely at the lower end due to ongoing growth investments. Long-term, he expects the One Ecolab program and digital capabilities to enable SG&A leverage beyond the historical 20-30 basis points annually.

Joshua Spector asked for an analysis of the Institutional segment's strong margins, questioning the recent seasonality changes and whether the current margin profile is stable or if historical seasonality will return.

Answer

CFO Scott Kirkland confirmed the exceptional margin performance in Institutional & Specialty, with a 380 basis point year-over-year increase. He attributed the modest sequential decline from Q2 to Q3 to strategic investments in the field force. Kirkland stated he expects the full-year operating income margin for the segment to be approximately 22%, aligning with long-term targets.

Joshua Spector asked about the timeline for realizing share gains in the commercial and property maintenance segments, questioning if it would be a second-half 2025 event or longer term.

Answer

Executive Heidi Petz clarified that the timeline is 'longer term,' suggesting it would be a topic for the next 18 to 24 months due to the long-cycle nature of these projects. Executive Allen Mistysyn added that any gains in property maintenance are currently being masked by core market softness, while new commercial project wins have a 12- to 18-month lag before painting begins.

Joshua Spector requested details on the CapEx guidance, questioning the $200 million for new buildings and why the core CapEx of $700 million is above the long-term model.

Answer

SVP & CFO Allen Mistysyn clarified the $200 million is for finishing the R&D center and headquarters. He explained that core CapEx is elevated in 2025 due to strategic investments in new architectural capacity at the Statesville factory and warehouse automation. He affirmed the long-term target remains 2% of sales.

Joshua Spector asked for clarification on the year-to-date CapEx figure relative to the full-year guide and requested specifics on which Performance Coatings submarkets are at risk of customer slowdowns.

Answer

Executive Allen Mistysyn explained that the gross CapEx number is elevated by the new headquarters project, but after accounting for financing reimbursements, the net core CapEx is in line with the target of ~2% of sales. Executive Heidi Petz identified the slowdown risk as broad-based within General Industrial, particularly in heavy equipment and agriculture, but currently views it as transitory.

Joshua Spector of UBS questioned the rationale for the Consumer segment's forecasted sales decline given easier comps and asked about customer buying behavior. He also inquired if the cost of innovation centers is an ongoing headwind for the Specialty Products Group.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Frank Sullivan explained that consumer takeaway has been flat to declining for 18 months, and growth will depend on self-help measures like new products, not a market rebound. He confirmed the innovation center costs are fully loaded into the Specialty Products Group's results for fiscal '25, so they will not be a new headwind in fiscal '26.

Joshua Spector questioned why the strong Q2 volume beat did not translate into greater EBIT leverage and asked what volume growth is needed to achieve the implied 15% EBIT growth in Q4.

Answer

CEO Frank Sullivan clarified that strong leverage was present across most segments but was masked in the Consumer Group by a $4.4 million bad debt charge. He added that achieving strong double-digit earnings growth in Q4 would require volume growth in the range of the 3% seen in Q2, with leverage amplified by Q4 being a seasonally stronger quarter.

Joshua Spector of UBS asked for more detail on the U.S. growth forecast, particularly the optimism behind the "at least low single-digit percent" outlook, and questioned the potential impact of recent M&A in the energy drink sector on Ardagh's business.

Answer

CEO Oliver Graham attributed the positive outlook to a recovery in the energy drink category and sustained strength in carbonated soft drinks and ready-to-drink cocktails. He emphasized that core growth drivers like sustainability and innovation remain strong. Regarding the energy drink M&A, Graham stated that AMP sees no immediate risk or significant upside, viewing the involved companies as strong market players.

Joshua Spector followed up on comments about European production constraints, asking if the related volume is permanently lost or can be recovered, and whether this implies low customer inventories could boost 2025 growth.

Answer

CEO Oliver Graham explained that with the overall European market being very tight, some volume was likely lost while some may have gone unfulfilled. He believes the impact held back AMP's growth by 1-2 points but does not see it as a major factor for 2025, as inventory rebalancing is already factored into the stronger Q4 2024 guidance.

Joshua Spector of UBS asked about Element Solutions' market outperformance in 2024, questioning how the company views its performance on a two-year basis and whether the outperformance from new wins in areas like advanced packaging is expected to accelerate.

Answer

CEO Benjamin Gliklich stated that the company outperformed its electronics markets in both the modest recovery of 2024 and the weaker 2023 period. He attributed this to successfully penetrating the fastest-growing subsegments of the electronics hardware market, such as high-performance computing. Gliklich expressed high conviction that this level of outperformance will continue as these secularly growing, high-value niches become a larger portion of the overall market.

Joshua Spector of UBS inquired about the progression of electronic market trends into late 2024 and 2025, and asked for more detail on the impact of acceleration and share gains in the Advanced Packaging business.

Answer

CEO Benjamin Gliklich explained that while the overall electronics market improvement has been uneven, ESI's traction in emerging technologies like Advanced Packaging is offsetting weakness in traditional sectors. He noted that Advanced Packaging trends benefit all three electronics businesses, with a particularly strong impact on the Semiconductor segment. Gliklich expressed optimism for broader market improvement in 2025, citing forecasts for high single-digit growth in key areas like PCBs.

Joshua Spector questioned the $50-$60 million in transitional mining costs for 2025, asking if this represents the bulk of the impact and if it will reverse in 2026. He also asked about the persistent use of cash for working capital and if the new cost savings program would incur significant cash outlays.

Answer

CEO John Romano and CFO John Srivisal confirmed the $50-$60 million mining cost is a temporary headwind from delayed CapEx that will largely reverse in 2026. Srivisal explained that the 2025 working capital use is mainly driven by higher accounts receivable from increased volumes, a positive sign, and that inventory is expected to be a source of cash. He also stated there are no significant cash costs anticipated for the savings program in the current year.

Joshua Spector asked for a detailed bridge of the sequential Q4 EBITDA decline, questioning why expected cost benefits were not more apparent, and sought clarity on competitive dynamics in Europe and China.

Answer

CEO John Romano and CFO John Srivisal clarified that while lower-cost tons are being produced, weaker-than-expected demand is slowing the sell-through of high-cost inventory. Srivisal added that headwinds from FX ($7-$10 million), higher freight costs, and lower 'other' revenue are also impacting the Q4 bridge. Romano explained that competitive activity, mainly from Chinese producers absorbing duties, has muted Q4 price increase potential and impacted volume.

Joshua Spector from UBS asked if the customer prepayment carried any further investment requirements and inquired about Albemarle's view on the recent restart of CATL's lepidolite production.

Answer

CFO Neal Sheorey stated there are no further investment requirements tied to the prepayment, describing it as a unique opportunity arising from ongoing partner discussions. CEO Jerry Masters commented that the restart of lepidolite production in China is not surprising, as the company had already modeled some lepidolite volume coming back online to meet strong domestic demand in a resource-short market.

Joshua Spector asked about O-I's strategy for energy contracts expiring in 2026 and questioned the flat working capital guidance for 2025, given the planned $50-$100 million inventory reduction.

Answer

CFO John Haudrich stated that the 2027 targets already incorporate the future energy outlook, with more details to come at Investor Day. CEO Gordon Hardie added that a new enterprise-wide program is focused on reducing energy usage. Regarding working capital, Haudrich explained the planned inventory reduction will be offset by a decrease in accounts payable resulting from the shrinking of the operating network, leading to a net neutral impact.

Joshua Spector from UBS questioned how net pricing fits into the medium-term plan to grow EBITDA by $300 million through savings, especially given the goal of improving price competitiveness. He also asked how the company determined its significant SG&A reduction target and how it benchmarks against peers.

Answer

CEO Gordon Hardie explained that the "Fit to Win" program focuses on driving productivity and reducing costs to create flexibility, allowing O-I to be more price competitive where needed while still increasing earnings. He stated the SG&A target was guided by peer benchmarks (competitors at 5% of revenue vs. O-I's 8%) and the need for a cost structure that reflects its portfolio. CFO John Haudrich added that a "Phase B" of savings provides a buffer against potential price headwinds.

Joshua Spector from UBS questioned the rationale behind FMC's 2025 volume growth guidance of high single digits, finding it counterintuitive given the near-term market weakness and ongoing channel inventory destocking.

Answer

CEO Pierre Brondeau and President Ronaldo Pereira clarified that the volume growth is not expected from the core portfolio, where inventory reduction is the priority. Instead, they stated that approximately 75% of the growth will come from the 'growth portfolio,' including new active ingredients and biologicals, and from developing new routes to market, such as direct sales to large growers. These areas are not impacted by existing channel inventory.

Joshua Spector from UBS asked about volume dynamics, questioning why Q4 guidance remained strong despite a pull-forward into Q3 and whether the large diamide sell-in to North America could create a headwind for 2025.

Answer

Pierre Brondeau, Chairman and CEO, clarified that the full-year forecast was maintained by adjusting the Q4 outlook to account for the Q3 over-delivery. Regarding 2025, he stated it was too early for a precise diamide forecast pending partner negotiations, but he expressed high confidence in the growth of specific products like Exirel.

Joshua Spector questioned the assumptions behind the 2025 guidance, seeking to clarify the expected volume growth needed to achieve low single-digit revenue growth after accounting for price/mix and FX. He also asked for an update on the status of multiyear customer contracts and the company's visibility.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jim Gray clarified that total company volume growth is expected to be in the low-to-mid single-digit range, with a much smaller price/mix headwind in 2025 compared to 2024. President and CEO Jim Zallie confirmed that contracting for 2025 is complete, with no significant multiyear adjustments expected, as most occurred in the prior year. He added that a key goal for the U.S./Canada Food & Industrial segment is to maintain the significant margin expansion achieved over the last two years.

Joshua Spector from UBS asked how much of the recent earnings improvement is structural and followed up on the company's outlook for balancing pricing and volume to achieve growth next year.

Answer

President and CEO James Zallie attributed the structural improvements to the new business segment structure and a more mature global operating model, stating they are in the 'early innings' of realizing the full benefits. EVP and CFO Jim Gray added that tightened operational cadences in the Food & Industrial segments are supporting higher margins. Regarding the 2025 outlook, management noted it is still early but that improving global economic conditions are generally favorable for demand.

Joshua Spector from UBS asked about the potential risk from tariffs related to Canada, the mix of product flow between the U.S. and Canada, and what mitigation activities Dow could pursue.

Answer

CEO James Fitterling stated that Dow is actively engaged with the U.S. administration to provide data and context. He described the trade relationship with Canada as 'relatively balanced,' with products moving both ways. Fitterling expressed his belief that the administration's goal is to avoid unintended economic consequences rather than broadly disrupt trade.

Joshua Spector asked about the combined earnings impact of recent portfolio changes and asset closures, particularly how these actions affect the bridge to Dow's long-term target of $8-9 billion in EBITDA.

Answer

James Fitterling, Chair and CEO, explained that these actions are designed to maintain a low-cost position by consolidating production into more efficient assets, thereby improving operating rates. He noted a 500 basis point year-over-year improvement in operating rates. While there were exit costs in 2023 and 2024, he expects a positive bottom-line impact from these moves to become visible in 2025.

Inquired about Q4 volume guidance, the specifics of the Pine Bluff financial underperformance, and the current state of competitive intensity in grocery channels.

Answer

Q4 volumes are expected to be down low-single digits in Foodservice and up low-single digits in Food & Beverage Merchandising. The $17M Pine Bluff miss was a Q3 event versus prior guidance; the YTD negative impact was $38M, broken down by quarter. The competitive environment is described as stable and unchanged.

Joshua Spector of UBS asked about the Fire Safety segment's operational capacity during the strong Q3 fire season and the long-term drivers for volume growth. He also questioned the timing of capital deployment, asking how Perimeter balances waiting for M&A opportunities against returning capital to shareholders to reach its target leverage.

Answer

CEO Haitham Khouri confirmed that the industry operated at maximum capacity during peak Q3 periods, evidenced by the activation of the Air Force's MAFS program. He stated that long-term growth is driven by partners adding larger air tankers, customers expanding fleets, and Perimeter's own investments in air base upgrades. Regarding capital allocation, Khouri explained the company will be patient in finding the right M&A target but will not remain under-levered indefinitely, viewing an efficient capital structure as essential. He indicated a special dividend is a possibility if other high-return options don't materialize over time, but this is a longer-term consideration.

Joshua Spector of UBS pressed for a framework on the expected 2025 earnings contribution from the methanolysis project (PRT). He also questioned the rationale behind the strategic inventory build, which contributed to a lower free cash flow guide, in light of weaker demand.

Answer

CEO Mark Costa reiterated that specific 2025 methanolysis guidance would come later, but highlighted two key drivers for year-over-year improvement: a significant cost tailwind from higher plant utilization and a ramp-up in revenue. CFO Willie McLain explained the strategic inventory build is to support future growth efficiently. It allows production line flexibility for polyesters ahead of a new facility and supports market adoption for new cellulosic products like Aventa, leveraging working capital instead of immediate capital spending.

Joshua Spector of UBS inquired about current nitrogen market dynamics, including the impact of weather on fall ammonia applications and whether tight North American inventories could lead to higher spring prices.

Answer

EVP Bert Frost characterized the global supply situation as constructive, citing reduced exports from China and production issues in Europe. He stated that low inventories in North America create a positive setup for the spring season. He noted that fall application timing depends on soil temperature and moisture, with the season often extending into December.

Joshua Spector inquired about the industrial business, asking if improving trends are current or just expected, and about the industrial contracting cycle. He also asked how much of the El Dorado facility's low-carbon material is still available to be contracted.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Damien Renwick stated that industrial demand is currently stable but could improve with lower interest rates and infrastructure spending. He also noted that customer contracts are staggered over time to avoid clustered expirations. Chairman and CEO Mark Behrman clarified that after accounting for a recent agreement, approximately two-thirds of the facility's low-carbon ammonia capacity remains available for sale or upgrade.

Speaking on behalf of Joshua Spector, Lucas Beaumont asked about the long-term growth outlook for the Mosaic Fertilizantes business in Brazil, noting that shipments have been range-bound for five years, in contrast to historical growth.

Answer

Jenny Wang, EVP of Commercial, reiterated that Mosaic is pursuing a 'value over volume' strategy in Brazil, being selective on credit risk, which can temper volume growth. President and CEO Bruce Bodine expressed continued optimism for the market and highlighted the upcoming Palmeirante blend plant, which will add 1 million tons of distribution capability in mid-2025. This investment provides the flexibility to grow volumes when it is economically and risk-adjusted sensible to do so.

Joshua Spector requested clarification on the full-year free cash flow guidance, the drivers of Q4 cash flow, and the company's philosophy on guidance after several consecutive quarters of beating expectations.

Answer

Executive Kevin Clothier clarified that the 'at least $750 million' free cash flow guidance is after the $100 million pension contribution. He broke down the Q4 cash flow bridge, noting earnings and working capital gains would be offset by capex, interest, and tax payments. President and CEO Timothy Donahue defended the Q4 guidance range as fair, explaining that the year-over-year comparison for Americas Beverage is much tougher in Q4, with the primary opportunity for outperformance coming from European Beverage due to last year's destocking.