Joshua Wolfson

Josh Wolfson inquired about Royal Gold's plans to ensure the market understands the business following recent deals, specifically regarding investor outreach and communication strategies. He also asked about the company's refreshed perspectives on providing near-term and long-term guidance, and when 2026 guidance might be expected. Additionally, he sought clarification on the increase in minority interest and the expected fourth-quarter expenses for the Sandstorm deal, as well as the strong revenue from LaRonde Zone 5 (LZ5).

Answer

Bill Heissenbuttel (President and CEO, Royal Gold) explained that the company plans extensive investor and analyst engagement, including an investor day in late March, to communicate the value of the expanded portfolio and address any market concerns. He reiterated the company's reluctance to provide consolidated long-term guidance due to not owning the properties but confirmed 2026 guidance would be discussed at the investor day. Paul Libner (SVP and CFO, Royal Gold) clarified that the minority interest increase was due to selling gold in kind for a partnership, with no effect on Royal Gold's results, and confirmed additional non-recurring deal-related expenses for Sandstorm would be recognized in Q4. Martin Raffield (SVP of Operations, Royal Gold) explained that the strong LZ5 revenue was a true-up payment for a mining area mistakenly excluded from the royalty area since November 2022.

Josh Wolfson requested more information on the timing for the Sandstorm transaction filings and votes, asked if new technical reports (43-101s) would be filed for key assets, and sought clarification on the accounting for the deferred Mount Milligan gold ounces.

Answer

President and CEO William Heissenbuttel stated he could not provide a detailed timetable for the Sandstorm vote but remains confident in a Q4 closing. SVP of Operations Martin Raffield confirmed no new 43-101s are planned. SVP & CFO Paul Libner clarified the Mount Milligan accounting, explaining the ounces have no booked basis yet and the deferred liability will increase by the fair market value of the gold upon receipt, with any mark-to-market difference from the sale price impacting earnings.

Joshua Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets asked for clarification on management's forward-looking comments about guidance, specifically whether the expectation for 'similar ranges' to 2024 applied to GEOs or to the individual metal sales volumes.

Answer

President and CEO William Heissenbuttel confirmed that the comment referred to the individual metal sales guidance ranges. He stated that for the time being, Royal Gold will continue to provide guidance by individual metal (gold, copper, silver) and revenue for smaller metals, rather than a single GEO figure, to avoid distortions from volatile metal price ratios.

Josh Wolfson inquired about Newmont's reserve pricing and gold assumptions for the upcoming year, asking if growth in reserves should be expected. He also sought clarification on the 2026 guidance, specifically if the $200 million decline in 2025 CapEx implies a corresponding increase in 2026, and the directional outlook for All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC), questioning if optimization efforts would outweigh higher gold price impacts.

Answer

Natascha Viljoen, President and COO, stated that it is too early to provide details on reserve pricing and gold assumptions for next year, as the company is in the midst of its budgeting and resource/reserve review, with results expected in February. She confirmed that 2026 capital expenditure would be higher to keep the two-year average (2025-2026) in line with expectations. For AISC, Ms. Viljoen noted that lower managed ounces from Ahafo South, Yanacocha, Peñasquito, and Cadia's transition would impact costs, but ongoing cost and productivity work aims to offset increases from higher gold prices and capital.

Josh Wolfson inquired about Newmont's reserve pricing and gold assumptions for the upcoming year, asking if growth in reserves should be expected. He also sought clarification on the 2026 guidance, specifically how the $200 million CapEx decline in 2025 would impact 2026 CapEx, and the directional outlook for All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) given various moving parts.

Answer

Natascha Viljoen, President and COO of Newmont Corporation, stated that it is too early to provide details on reserve pricing and gold assumptions for next year, as the company is in the midst of its budgeting and resource/reserve review cycle, with results expected in February. For capital expenditure, Ms. Viljoen confirmed that 2026 CapEx would be higher to keep the two-year average (2025-2026) in line with previous guidance. She explained that 2026 AISC would be impacted by lower managed ounces from Ahafo South, Yanacocha, Peñasquito, and Cadia, but ongoing cost and productivity work aims to offset increases from higher gold prices and capital.

Josh Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets inquired about underlying cost trends and the outlook for 2026, including potential project updates and the cadence of future guidance.

Answer

President and CEO Tom Palmer stated that costs are in line with expectations, with the focus now on productivity enhancements across the portfolio. He indicated that 2026 guidance will likely be provided in February, and that the Red Chris project is the next major development being evaluated for a full-funds decision in the 2026 timeframe.

Joshua Wolfson from RBC Capital Markets expressed concern over the lack of long-term outlook beyond 2025 and asked if more substantive multi-year guidance would be provided in the future. He also asked how investors should assess the success of the Newcrest acquisition given the limited forward visibility.

Answer

CEO Tom Palmer reiterated the deliberate choice to focus on stabilizing the business and delivering on high-confidence 2025 guidance. He suggested the success of the Newcrest deal can be seen in the long-term value being unlocked at assets like Cadia and Lihir, and pointed to the record Q4 free cash flow as an insight into the go-forward portfolio's potential.

Joshua Wolfson from RBC Capital Markets asked for clarification on the drivers behind the significant changes in cost and production expectations, questioning whether they stem from larger integration issues at legacy Newcrest assets or from broader, unexpected industry inflation. He also requested a quantifiable measure of current inflation trends.

Answer

Executive Tom Palmer attributed Q3 cost pressures to specific operational events at Lihir, Cadia, and Peñasquito, while framing the 2025 outlook change as a function of lower volumes from Lihir/Brucejack and higher sustaining capital at Cadia. CFO Karyn Ovelmen provided a breakdown of 2024 cost increases. Regarding inflation, Tom Palmer noted that while consumables are stable, contracted labor costs have seen significant escalation.

Josh Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets inquired about the expected grade and recovery performance at Salares Norte for the second half of the year and asked for clarification on the mechanism and company's intention for the Northern Star share position resulting from the Gold Road acquisition.

Answer

CEO Mike Fraser explained that a newly commissioned larger furnace at Salares Norte should mitigate earlier recovery challenges and that the mine will process grades in line with its long-term profile. EVP of Strategy, Planning & Corporate Development Chris Gratias detailed that the value of the offer for Gold Road floats with Northern Star's share price and that Gold Fields intends to offload the inherited, non-core share position to avoid unnecessary risk.

Inquired about the second-half outlook for grade and recoveries at Salares Norte and the mechanics of the Northern Star share position resulting from the Gold Road acquisition.

Answer

The company has installed a new, larger furnace at Salares Norte to improve silver processing and overall recoveries, with plans to process grades in line with the life-of-mine average. Regarding the Gold Road deal, the value of the offer floats with Northern Star's share price, and Gold Fields will inherit these shares as a non-core holding that it intends to sell.

Josh Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets inquired about the second-half outlook for Salares Norte's grade and recoveries, and the company's intentions for the Northern Star share position acquired via the Gold Road transaction.

Answer

Mike Fraser, ED & CEO, stated that a new, larger capacity furnace commissioned in August should improve recoveries at Salares Norte, with an expected grade profile around 8 grams per tonne. Chris Gratias, EVP - Strategy, Planning & Corporate Development, added that the inherited Northern Star shares are considered a non-core holding that Gold Fields will look to offload.

Josh Wolfson inquired about the valuation of the Johnson Camp royalty acquisition and its expected steady-state production. He also asked for details on the enforcement process for the ATO stream amid the dispute with STEP Gold, its effect on the operator's restructuring, and the production from ATO assumed in the 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO Sheldon Vanderkooy described the Johnson Camp acquisition as attractive but stated the company does not provide asset-specific guidance. Regarding the ATO stream, he clarified the arrears are a relatively small amount (circa US$8 million) and expressed confidence in Triple Flag's secured position and parent guarantee from STEP Gold. Vanderkooy affirmed he is comfortable with the full-year 2025 guidance even if zero ounces are received from ATO.

Josh Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets asked for clarity on the timing of tax deferrals that contributed to strong free cash flow and when that liability might reverse. He also questioned the grade sequencing at the Detour mine for H2 and when the positive grade contributions from the Barnat pit at Malartic might end.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jamie Porter clarified that cash tax installments are based on prior-year profitability, leading to a significant catch-up payment in 2026 if high gold prices persist. EVP & COO Natasha Vaz stated that Detour's grades will improve in Q4 to the 0.97-1.0 g/t range after mining in a lower-grade domain through Q3. EVP - Exploration Guy Gosselin explained that the positive grade trend at the Barnat pit is expected to continue variably for the remainder of its life due to conservative modeling around old workings.

Joshua Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets asked about the potential to accelerate the second shaft at Malartic based on current exploration success and its expected production timeline. He also requested estimated capital costs for the Meadowbank expansion opportunities.

Answer

Executive Dominique Girard stated that an internal concept for the second shaft is due by year-end, with production targeted for the early 2030s. Regarding Meadowbank, he noted capital would be minimal as infrastructure exists but did not provide a figure. CEO Ammar Al-Joundi added that these would be high-return ounces due to the low capital investment required.

Joshua Wolfson from RBC Capital Markets asked about the company's capital allocation strategy for its growing free cash flow, given its strengthening balance sheet, flat dividend, and light share buybacks. He also questioned whether the company has a strategic objective for net production volume growth beyond its current stable three-year guidance.

Answer

CFO Jamie Porter explained that while a significant portion of cash flow will continue to strengthen the balance sheet, the company will persist with its dividend and opportunistic share repurchases. CEO Ammar Al-Joundi added that as cash flow increases, shareholder returns will also increase. Regarding growth, Mr. Al-Joundi affirmed that while the focus is on per-share value, the company's robust project pipeline, including major expansions in Ontario and at Malartic, points to anticipated and profitable future growth.

Joshua Wolfson asked about the economic rationale for developing the Upper Beaver project on a standalone basis, the potential timeline for a second shaft at East Gouldie based on recent drilling, and the company's capital management strategy given its pipeline of internal projects and a recent external investment.

Answer

Executive Ammar Al-Joundi explained that Upper Beaver shows strong returns even as a standalone project, but the option to transport ore to LaRonde is still being evaluated to potentially improve economics. Regarding East Gouldie, Guy Gosselin (executive) and Ammar Al-Joundi clarified that while drilling results are exciting, more data is needed to determine the optimal location for a potential second shaft. On capital strategy, Ammar Al-Joundi emphasized a disciplined, risk-adjusted approach, prioritizing internal projects where the company has a knowledge advantage, and expressed confidence in managing the robust project pipeline.

Joshua Wolfson inquired about capital allocation plans beyond the new dividend, the CapEx impact of the North Bullfrog delay, and the permitting outlook for the Arthur project.

Answer

CEO Alberto Calderon stated the company is open to other capital return methods like buybacks if high gold prices persist but wants to establish the new dividend policy first. He noted the North Bullfrog delay doesn't significantly alter project economics, though 2026 spending will be lower than planned. He added that the North Bullfrog process has provided valuable experience for navigating the permitting of the larger Arthur project, for which the company feels encouraged by government support.

Asked about the potential for copper M&A, the rationale for the board's CEO succession planning process, and the operational performance of Pueblo Viejo post-Q1.

Answer

The company sees better value in building its own copper assets like Lumwana and Reko Diq rather than pursuing M&A in the current market. CEO succession is an ongoing, long-term process under board oversight, not a new formalized event. At Pueblo Viejo, throughput has stepped up as planned in April following major upgrades, and the operation is on track to meet guidance.

Questioned the changes in the 5-year production guidance compared to the November update (excluding Mali's impact) and sought an update on the potential sale of a stake in Reko Diq and Pakistan's ability to fund its share.

Answer

The long-term production guidance charts are directional and subject to revision; the key takeaway is the +30% growth trajectory. Regarding Reko Diq, Pakistan is expected to be able to fund its share through the project financing structure without any underwriting from Barrick. Discussions about a potential investment by Saudi Arabia are ongoing between the respective countries.

Joshua Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets questioned the rationale for shifting drilling resources at Great Bear from the LP fault to surface targets and asked if this drilling was on the critical path. He also inquired about other assets that might see new opportunities in the current high gold price environment.

Answer

William Dunford, EVP and Chief Technical Officer, explained the shift to underground infill drilling is a more financially efficient decision and is not on the critical path, as permitting and construction are the main drivers. He added that a higher gold price benefits all assets with future laybacks, like Tasiast, but the company is not dropping cutoff grades, instead focusing on stockpile optionality for the long term.

Joshua Wolfson asked how the company will evaluate its share buyback program given the stock's strong performance and whether it would be a formulaic process. He also sought clarification on the tax guidance, specifically if full tax rates should now be assumed for Tasiast and La Coipa.

Answer

CEO J. Rollinson responded that the share buyback evaluation will be balanced, not purely formulaic, as the company still views its stock as undervalued despite recent price appreciation. EVP and CFO Andrea Freeborough clarified that the higher tax guidance is due to Mauritania becoming income taxable and higher gold prices impacting taxes in Brazil and Chile, confirming it is a normal tax year.

Joshua Wolfson inquired about the second-half production outlook, the potential for a resource update with the Great Bear PEA, and the sustainability of cash flow given H1 working capital and tax movements.

Answer

Claude J. Schimper, EVP and COO, confirmed the company is sticking to its full-year guidance, with mine sequencing at Tasiast and Paracatu planned accordingly. CEO J. Rollinson and Schimper affirmed a resource update will accompany the PEA. CFO Andrea Freeborough explained that working capital ebbs and flows, and cash taxes were impacted by a $25 million installment in Mauritania.

Joshua Wolfson inquired about the Vatukoula stream buyback, the rationale for including the technically complex Gualcamayo project in guidance, and potential risks of renegotiation for other assets in the portfolio.

Answer

Nolan Watson, an executive, explained that the Vatukoula operator had been insolvent and non-paying for some time, and a buyout was facilitated by a new major shareholder. He expressed confidence in Gualcamayo's new, well-capitalized operator and noted the upfront capital is less than news reports suggest. Watson also identified Bear Creek as the only remaining 'problem child' but sees potential for a positive monetization event due to Sandstorm's secured creditor position.

Joshua Wolfson inquired about the Vatukoula stream buyback, questioning the timing and compensation. He also asked about the confidence in including the technically complex Gualcamayo project in guidance under its new operator, and sought to identify any other streams in the portfolio at risk of renegotiation.

Answer

Nolan Watson, an executive, explained that the Vatukoula operator was insolvent and a new major shareholder's investment was conditioned on the buyout, with a $4 million non-refundable deposit already secured. Regarding Gualcamayo, Watson expressed confidence in the new, well-capitalized Argentinian operator and noted the upfront capital is lower than headline figures. He identified Bear Creek as the only remaining 'problem child' but sees potential for a positive monetization event due to Sandstorm's secured position on the assets.

Joshua Wolfson inquired about the investment rationale for the Yanacocha transaction, comparing its development-stage nature to past deals on producing assets. He also asked about the M&A pipeline for similar optionality-focused deals and the expected timing for increased revenue from the Haynesville energy investment.

Answer

Eaun Gray, SVP of Business Development, explained that Yanacocha's appeal lies in its large resource, immediate oxide cash flow, and significant long-term optionality from its sulfides, Conga, and Quilish projects. He confirmed the deal pipeline includes various deal types. Jason O'Connell, VP of Energy, attributed flat Haynesville revenue to low gas prices and asset onboarding delays, expecting normalization as prices recover.

Inquired about the implications of the Eagle mine impairment, including the recoverability of value, the royalty's survivability in an insolvency event, the impact on long-term guidance, and whether the Cariboo project was included in the 5-year outlook.

Answer

The Eagle impairment is an accounting decision due to a lack of visibility on a restart; the company is confident its royalty rights are protected in any scenario, including insolvency, due to its secured creditor status. It is too early to update the 5-year guidance for the loss of Eagle, as more information is needed from Victoria Gold. The Cariboo project was not included in the 5-year outlook.

Joshua Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets asked about the Eagle Mine impairment, seeking to understand if the write-down to zero has any read-through on the potential for value recovery and if the royalty is at risk in a potential solvency event for the operator. He also questioned the impact on long-term guidance and asked if the Cariboo project was included in the existing five-year outlook.

Answer

President and CEO Jason Attew clarified the full impairment on the Eagle royalty was a conservative accounting decision due to the lack of visibility on a restart timeline. He expressed confidence that Osisko's rights as a secured creditor would be protected in an insolvency scenario. CFO Frédéric Ruel added the impairment could be reversed with new information. Attew stated it is too early to adjust the 5-year outlook and confirmed the Cariboo project was not included in it.

Joshua Wolfson asked about the Eagle Mine impairment, questioning if the write-down to zero implies a low chance of value recovery and if the royalty would survive a potential insolvency event for the operator. He also sought clarity on the impact of the Eagle Mine's suspension on the company's long-term (5-year) guidance and whether the Cariboo project was included in that outlook.

Answer

President and CEO Jason Attew clarified that the full impairment was a conservative accounting measure due to the lack of visibility on a restart timeline. He expressed confidence that Osisko's security over the property, registered land interest, and intercreditor agreements would protect its royalty rights even in an insolvency scenario. VP - Finance and CFO Frédéric Ruel added that the impairment will be reassessed quarterly. Attew stated it was too early to adjust the 5-year outlook for the Eagle issue and confirmed the Cariboo project was not included in it.