Justin Jenkins

Justin Jenkins questioned the pathway to Phillips 66's $17 billion debt target by 2027, seeking details on the financial bridge. He also asked about the refining macro, specifically expectations for clean product crack spreads (CRECs) and crude differentials (diffs) into 2026, noting the portfolio's fit with high diesel CRECs and wider diffs.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Lashier contextualized the debt reduction as a clear priority, following strategic use of the balance sheet for inorganic and organic growth while maintaining shareholder returns. EVP and CFO Kevin Mitchell outlined a path to the $17 billion debt target by 2027, projecting $1.5 billion to $2 billion annually for debt reduction from operating cash flow (after shareholder returns and capital spending), supplemented by Q4 working capital benefits and potential non-core asset dispositions. Marketing and Commercial executive Brian Mandell anticipated light-heavy crude spreads to widen into Q4 and Q1, driven by increased WCS production and winter diluent blending, and expected Middle Eastern OSPs to fall, benefiting Phillips 66 as a large WCS user.

Justin Jenkins inquired about the pathway to achieving the $17 billion debt target by 2027 and the company's expectations for Clean Product Realization Efficiency Credits (CRECs) and crude differentials into 2026.

Answer

Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO, reiterated the commitment to debt reduction as a clear priority. Kevin Mitchell, EVP and CFO, outlined the financial bridge, projecting $1.5 billion-$2 billion per year available for debt reduction from operating cash flow, supplemented by Q4 working capital benefits. Brian Mandell, EVP of Marketing and Commercial, anticipated widening light-heavy crude spreads in Q4 and Q1, driven by increased WCS production, and noted improving jet-to-diesel regrades and firming octane spreads as tailwinds.

Justin Jenkins of Raymond James followed up on the Suncorp dividend, asking for a potential timeline for dividend equivalency. He also questioned the financing strategy for the Parkland acquisition and inquired about the underlying fuel demand backdrop and impacts from recent market volatility.

Answer

Treasurer & SVP - Finance Scott Grischow reiterated confidence that the Suncorp dividend equivalency period will extend 'well past the two year mark' due to tax planning and future growth. He confirmed the plan to fund the Parkland deal's cash portion with senior notes and preferred equity, pragmatically monitoring markets for timing. CCO Austin Harkness described fuel demand trends as stable, with gasoline flat-to-slightly-down and diesel having waned, but stated Sunoco expects to outperform these trends due to its growth investments.

Justin Jenkins of Raymond James inquired about the fourth-quarter performance of the Fuel Distribution segment, particularly the impact of low price volatility, and asked for the 2025 outlook and potential effects of tariffs on the business.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Austin Harkness explained that while Q4 had variability, the full-year 2024 results for the Fuel Distribution segment were strong, with adjusted EBITDA up 5% year-over-year despite asset sales. He noted the business is well-positioned for growth in 2025. President and CEO Joseph Kim addressed tariffs, stating that Sunoco has a strong track record in inflationary and volatile environments and views potential uncertainty as an opportunity to differentiate itself.

Justin Jenkins of Raymond James asked for more details on the company's investment strategy, questioning whether the focus would be on organic growth, M&A, or joint ventures. He also sought clarification on whether the Marine segment's Q2 performance would have met guidance if not for an unfavorable tax settlement.

Answer

President and CFO Ira Birns stated that the investment strategy includes both organic initiatives and M&A to accelerate growth in core businesses, particularly in Aviation and Land, noting that valuations have become more favorable. Birns also confirmed that without the one-time transaction tax settlement, the Marine segment's gross profit would have been 'right in the middle' of the company's guidance range for the quarter.

Justin Jenkins asked for more details on how the early days of the Trump administration have impacted the regulatory and permitting backdrop and influenced contracting discussions. He also requested clarification on the 2025 guidance, specifically how the 1-2 million tons of Stage 3 volumes are incorporated into the EBITDA forecast.

Answer

President and CEO Jack Fusco described the new administration's engagement as 'refreshing' and noted that the clear communication provides crucial regulatory certainty for their complex projects. EVP and CFO Zach Davis clarified the 2025 guidance, explaining that the 47-48 million ton production forecast includes the base 45 million tons plus contributions from Corpus Christi Stage 3. The high end of the range assumes three trains are fully operational by early Q4, while the low end assumes only two reach substantial completion within the year.