Justin Kleber

Justin Kleber inquired about the level of support Leslie's is receiving from supplier partners for its turnaround efforts, specifically regarding product allocation and payment terms. He also asked about the expected free cash flow conversion from the fiscal 2026 EBITDA guidance.

Answer

CEO Jason McDonell confirmed strong vendor partnerships, highlighting improved in-stock positions. CFO Jeff White added that SKU optimization aids in providing better forecasts to vendors. Jeff White also stated that the midpoint of the fiscal 2026 EBITDA guide assumes free cash flow positivity.

Justin Kleber inquired about the level of support from Leslie's supplier partners regarding product allocation and payment terms, and also asked for directional guidance on the conversion of the fiscal year 2026 EBITDA guide into free cash flow.

Answer

CEO Jason McDonell confirmed strong vendor partnerships, highlighting improved in-stock positions. CFO Jeff White added that SKU optimization enhances forecasting for vendors. Regarding free cash flow, Jeff White stated that the midpoint of the fiscal year 2026 EBITDA guidance assumes free cash flow positivity.

Justin Kleber of Baird asked for commentary on sales performance in year-round Sunbelt markets versus the North and sought to reconcile the Q4 guidance with comments about improving traffic trends.

Answer

CEO Jason McDonell explained that even some Sunbelt markets saw cooler-than-normal temperatures, impacting chemical sales, though performance was still better than in the North. He reiterated that Q4 traffic has improved from Q3 but is not yet at target. Interim CFO & Treasurer Tony Iskander clarified the Q4 guidance implies a sequential improvement in the rate of decline from Q3.

Zachary Beeck, on behalf of Justin Kleber from Baird, asked what Q3 trends give management confidence in the full-year outlook and inquired about the drivers for the implied second-half gross margin inflection.

Answer

CEO Jason McDonell stated it was premature to comment on Q3 trends as over 70% of the quarter's sales were still to come, but expressed confidence based on sustainable conversion improvements and new initiatives like the tiered loyalty program. Interim CFO Tony Iskander explained the gross margin inflection is supported by a rebate timing shift, which was a ~100 basis point headwind in Q2 but will become a tailwind in Q4. He also cited new customer-centric initiatives as a source of confidence.

Justin Kleber of Baird requested a breakdown of the 9% PRO growth into transaction and average order value (AOV) components and asked about the pricing outlook for the PRO segment. He also sought to quantify the dollar impact of the "transformational expenses" to better model future EBITDA.

Answer

CEO Jason McDonell stated the PRO growth was predominantly driven by an increase in transactions, indicating positive momentum. He also noted no changes are planned for the PRO pricing strategy, with the focus remaining on service and availability. CFO Scott Bowman declined to provide a specific dollar amount for transformational costs but indicated they would dissipate in the back half of the year and that the expense cadence in H2 should set a "new normal" for fiscal 2026, providing a better margin profile.

Justin Kleber inquired about chemical pricing trends, specifically a new low price on shock, and asked about the outlook for SG&A given wage pressures and investment needs.

Answer

CFO Scott Bowman clarified that recent price adjustments on chemicals are targeted specifically at the competitive PRO business and are largely covered by lower product costs, unlike the broad 2023 price reductions. Regarding SG&A, he acknowledged further cuts are difficult and that investments will follow top-line growth. He also noted that low incentive compensation in the past two years presents a potential headwind as performance improves.

Justin Kleber asked about the expected revenue and EBITDA contribution from the Breeze acquisition to understand the core Valvoline business performance, and inquired about the drivers behind the projected 100 basis point decline in fiscal 2026 EBITDA margins, distinguishing between core Valvoline and the Breeze business impact. He also questioned the valuation discrepancy between the divested and acquired Breeze locations.

Answer

CFO Kevin Willis stated the core business is expected to perform well, but it's early to detail Breeze's specific contribution, noting a measured approach for the outlook. President and CEO Lori Flees explained the FTC's narrow competition definition led to divesting 45 stores, impacting the net acquisition price, but expressed confidence in long-term shareholder returns by applying Valvoline's playbook to the acquired stores.

Justin Kleber asked for a breakdown of the revenue and EBITDA contribution from the Breeze acquisition in the fiscal year 2026 outlook, and inquired about the drivers behind the projected 100 basis point decline in EBITDA margins for fiscal year 2026, distinguishing between core Valvoline and Breeze's impact.

Answer

CFO Kevin Willis stated that the core business is expected to perform well and that a measured approach was taken for Breeze's inclusion in the outlook, but specific contributions are not being disclosed yet. President and CEO Lori Flees elaborated on the FTC-mandated divestiture of 45 stores, resulting in a net acquisition of 162 stores for $593 million, and expressed confidence in long-term shareholder returns despite the initial lower margin profile of acquired stores.

Justin Kleber from Baird requested more detail on the benefits and paybacks from the recent technology spend, beyond labor leverage. He also asked for the gross margin outlook for Q4.

Answer

CEO Lori Flees passionately detailed the benefits, including ERP automation, enhanced employee experience via HRIS, more sophisticated marketing from cloud-based customer data, and improved in-store tech that boosts training, throughput, and customer experience. CFO J. Kevin Willis added that for Q4, the company expects gross margins to be 'at or modestly above prior year as reported.'

Justin Kleber questioned why the company did not tighten its full-year comp guidance given the wide implied range for the second half, and asked about the impact of the Easter holiday shift in Q3.

Answer

CEO Lori Flees explained it was premature to narrow guidance since 55-60% of annual profit is generated in the second half during the summer drive season, but she reaffirmed confidence in the existing range. CFO Mary Meixelsperger confirmed an Easter shift headwind for Q3, which is the reverse of an ~80 basis point benefit seen in Q2, and noted it is factored into their forecast.

Justin Kleber pointed out that the full-year EBITDA guidance implies a significant growth slowdown and asked for an explanation. He also inquired about the future penetration potential for premium oil.

Answer

CFO Mary Meixelsperger clarified that the apparent slowdown is primarily due to the year-over-year comparison impact of refranchising. She provided pro forma figures, explaining that removing the 39 divested stores from the prior year's base normalizes the growth rate. CEO Lori Flees addressed premiumization, stating that the mix of synthetic blend and full synthetic continues to grow due to OEM requirements and the aging vehicle fleet, expecting it to remain a 100-150 basis point comp tailwind.

Justin Kleber from Baird inquired about the final FY24 contribution from non-oil change revenue (NOCR), the variability in its penetration across the store network, and sought clarification on why lower waste oil collection payments would be a net negative.

Answer

CEO Lori Flees highlighted that NOCR was the largest contributor to ticket growth in FY24, with improvements across all store quartiles driven by enhanced training. She noted variability is often tied to staff tenure. CFO Mary Meixelsperger clarified the waste oil comment, explaining that while it historically acts as a hedge to product costs, recent changes from a provider create short-term uncertainty about whether that relationship will hold, even if lower base oil costs are a long-term benefit.

Justin Kleber asked if the successful Nike and Jordan launches are helping the company gain access to other desirable brands. He also questioned the drivers of the implied gross margin expansion for the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Steve Lawrence confirmed the successful launches have helped in discussions with new brands, citing recent additions like Converse, HydroJug, and BURLEBO. CFO Carl Ford explained that back-half gross margin expansion would be driven by continued merchandise margin strength, a favorable mix from premium brands, and cycling prior-year distribution center costs.

Justin Kleber asked if the successful launch of Jordan and expanded Nike assortment were helping Academy Sports + Outdoors break down historical barriers, leading to new conversations and access to brands that previously would not sell to them. He also asked Carl Ford about the drivers of the expected 50 basis points of gross margin expansion in the back half, which is stronger than the first half, considering the anticipated larger impact of tariffs, and inquired about the interplay between merchandise margins and cycling elevated freight/supply chain costs.

Answer

CEO Steve Lawrence confirmed that the successful Jordan launch and Nike partnership definitely help in gaining access to new brands. He cited examples like Converse and HydroJug, as well as expanding higher-end brands already in the assortment like BURLEBO and Waggle, and Ninja coolers/grills, indicating continued success in dialogues with desired brands. CFO Carl Ford stated that the low end of gross margin guidance is up 10 basis points year-over-year, with the upper end requiring continued strong merchandise margin performance, partly from Jordan and Nike. He noted shrink is a minor headwind (5 basis points year-over-year year-to-date), and e-commerce shipping deleverage is expected with strong growth. He mentioned that freight costs from pulled-forward inventory will play out as goods sell, and overall, year-over-year improvement is expected.

Justin Kleber asked for details on merchandise margin performance in Q2 and the assumptions for the back half of the year. He also requested clarification on the sales and EPS benefit from the 53rd week calendar shift in Q2 and how that headwind will reverse.

Answer

CFO Carl Ford explained that the 50 basis point gross margin improvement in Q2 included a 20 basis point tailwind from merchandise margin. CEO Steve Lawrence added that the full-year guidance implies merchandise margin would be the primary driver if they reach the high end. Ford also quantified the Q2 calendar shift benefit at approximately $35 million in sales, noting the bulk of this will reverse in Q3.

Justin Kleber asked for a breakdown of Sportsman's Warehouse's comparable store sales growth into transactions versus average ticket, specifically inquiring if transaction counts are now positive. He also sought details on the potential impact of tariff-related margin pressure in the back half, including real-time pricing strategies, anticipated retail price increases, and embedded unit elasticity in the outlook. Finally, he asked for a comparison of the freight headwind to mix pressure on gross margin.

Answer

CEO Paul Stone indicated that both AOV and UPT are up, and transaction counts are positive, driven by strong BOPIS performance and e-commerce. CFO Jennifer Paul Young stated that merchants are proactively working with vendors on cost increases due to tariffs, leveraging MAP pricing for flexibility, but noted significant uncertainty. She also explained that while all category rates were up, the mix shift towards lower-margin hunt and away from higher-margin camping negatively impacted overall gross margin, with freight being a distinct 40 basis point drag.

Justin Kleber asked for a breakdown of the comp performance in terms of transactions versus average ticket, specifically if comp transactions are now positive. He also questioned the potential for tariff-related margin pressure in the back half, asking about real-time pricing, expected retail price increases, and embedded unit elasticity. Finally, he inquired how mix pressure compared to the 40 basis point freight headwind on gross margin.

Answer

Paul Stone, President, CEO & Director, indicated that with 70% of purchases starting online (BOPIS), transactional counts are positive, and both AOV and UPT are up. Jennifer Fall Jung, CFO, stated that merchants are proactively managing tariffs with vendors and leveraging MAP pricing for flexibility, though uncertainty remains. Paul Stone added that strategic inventory pull-forward helped mitigate early tariff impacts, and low private label penetration (3%) aids management. Jennifer Fall Jung clarified that while all categories (except hunt) saw margin rate increases, the mix shift towards lower-margin hunt and away from higher-margin camping negatively impacted overall gross margin, with rate improvements driving the overall increase.

Sought details on total tariff exposure including from vendors, the e-commerce fulfillment mix and profitability model, and requested more specific quantification of the 'modest' gross margin expansion expected for the year.

Answer

The company stated direct import exposure is very low (<2% of COGS) and they have not yet seen significant tariff-related price increases from vendors. Over 75% of e-commerce orders are fulfilled in-store, creating a highly profitable omnichannel model that drives traffic and upsell opportunities. While not providing specific guidance, they explained that gross margin expansion will be driven by improved productivity from focusing on core, high-turn products and better seasonal inventory management, which reduces markdowns.

Sought clarification on the implied Q4 gross margin, the new baseline for SG&A expenses, and the focus of the new omni-channel marketing campaign.

Answer

Executives guided that Q4 gross margin should recover from last year's clearance-driven lows. SG&A is expected to remain at a steady state, slightly up in Q4 for holiday staffing. The marketing campaign is focused on bottom-of-the-funnel digital efforts to drive conversions.

Justin Kleber sought clarification on the Q4 gross margin and SG&A outlook, asking if the current quarter's adjusted SG&A represents a new baseline. He also requested more details on the new omni-channel marketing campaign's focus and effectiveness.

Answer

CFO Jeff White guided that Q4 gross margin should improve year-over-year by recapturing margin lost to last year's liquidations and confirmed that the current SG&A level is a 'steady state' going forward, with a slight potential increase for holiday staffing. CEO Paul Stone explained the marketing campaign is focused on the bottom of the funnel, successfully shifting spend from print to digital channels like social and affiliates to drive e-commerce sales.

Asked about in-store conversion rates, the reasons for high decremental margins in the revised guidance, and the expected drivers of free cash flow in the following year.

Answer

The company reported all-time high conversion rates, attributing it to their new 'outfitter' labor model. The high decremental margin in guidance is due to a combination of planned Q4 promotions and the slowing pace of expense cuts. Future free cash flow is expected to be driven by EBITDA growth rather than further working capital reductions, as inventory levels need to be reinvested in.

Justin Kleber from Baird asked about in-store conversion trends following the new 'outfitter' labor model. He also analyzed the revised guidance, questioning the high decremental margins, and inquired if future free cash flow would be driven by working capital improvements or EBITDA growth.

Answer

CEO Paul Stone reported being 'very happy' with conversion, stating it is at an 'all-time high,' which he attributed to the new generalist outfitter model. CFO Jeffrey White explained the decremental margin pressure is due to a combination of increased Q4 promotional activity and the slowing pace of achievable expense cuts. For 2025, White projected that free cash flow will be driven primarily by EBITDA growth, as inventory levels need strategic investment after being cut 'too low.'

Justin Kleber of Baird asked about the company's plans to leverage its successful vertical brands within the Foot Locker store ecosystem. He also sought clarification on whether the updated full-year guidance reflected an increase in second-half expectations or just the first-half outperformance.

Answer

President & CEO Lauren Hobart stated that it was 'way too soon to tell' regarding the introduction of vertical brands into Foot Locker. Both Hobart and CFO Navdeep Gupta confirmed that the updated guidance reflects both the Q2 beat and a modest raise to the comp expectations for the second half of the year.

Justin Kleber questioned what drives the guided gross margin acceleration for the full year and asked if share buybacks would be paused pending the Foot Locker acquisition.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Navdeep Gupta explained that margin expansion will be driven by the same factors as Q1 (product mix, pricing, vertical brands), with an added contribution from the scaling of GameChanger and DICK'S Media Network in the back half. On buybacks, he stated the company will remain flexible but is subject to restrictions during the S-4 filing process.

Justin Kleber asked if a softer, warmer end to the quarter contributed to the decline in transactions and which elements of House of Sport are proving most impactful in the smaller Field House store format.

Answer

President and CEO Lauren Hobart clarified that the quarter was strong throughout and weather did not have a material impact. She explained that key learnings from House of Sport, such as improved service, better assortment, and experiences, are being translated into the Field House concept and across the entire store portfolio. CFO Navdeep Gupta added that the product portfolio helps navigate weather shifts, with categories like golf performing well in moderate temperatures.

Justin Kleber asked about the outlook for shrink in the second half of the year and questioned why the total sales guidance was held steady despite an increase in the comparable sales forecast.

Answer

President and CEO Lauren Hobart stated that after lapping the prior year's true-up, shrink is expected to be flat in the second half. CFO Navdeep Gupta explained that the unchanged total sales guidance was a function of minor factors like non-comp sales and rounding, not a reflection of weakening expectations.

Justin Kleber from Baird asked if management could quantify the comparable sales drag from eliminating 'empty calorie' promotions. He also questioned the drivers behind the implied Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance, which appears to be down year-over-year, asking if it's due to tariffs or strategic reinvestments.

Answer

CEO Joel Anderson did not quantify the promotional drag but reiterated that Q3 is the toughest sales compare of the year. CFO Sabrina Simmons highlighted that underlying store performance is improving. Regarding the Q4 EBITDA outlook, Simmons attributed the guidance to three factors: the most significant negative impact from tariffs occurring in Q4, a desire to 'keep some powder dry' for strategic investments, and a prudent approach given potential macroeconomic volatility.

Justin Kleber of Baird asked if the mid-30s margin for Take 5 is a ceiling or if there's potential for upward migration, and questioned the drivers of the International Car Wash segment's strength and its outlook for the second half.

Answer

EVP & CFO Mike Diamond explained that while not providing long-term forecasts, the company feels good about the sustainable mid-30s margin for Take 5. Regarding the Car Wash segment, he attributed its strong performance to both operational improvements and favorable weather, but cautioned to expect a 'meaningful moderation' in the back half due to tough comparisons and unfavorable weather in July.

Justin Kleber asked about the expected cadence of same-store sales growth for the remainder of the year, given the Q1 result was below the annual guide, and questioned the lag time for lower base oil prices to benefit Take 5's margins.

Answer

EVP and CFO Michael Diamond reiterated the full-year same-store sales guidance of 1% to 3%, noting it incorporates performance to date and that he expects performance across segments to balance out over the year. He clarified that there is approximately a one-quarter lag for changes in oil prices to impact product costs.

Justin Kleber inquired about the potential for Take 5 Oil Change to generate over $50 million in incremental EBITDA in 2025, referencing a prior Analyst Day target, and asked for a more precise definition of 'normalized' same-store sales growth for the brand.

Answer

EVP & CFO Michael Diamond avoided providing specific subsegment guidance but affirmed Take 5's high growth potential. He explained that 'normalization' implies a same-store sales growth rate below the strong 9.2% seen in Q4 2024. He also noted that the Q4 Maintenance segment margin was impacted by other franchise businesses within the segment but that the company feels very good about the Take 5 margin profile.

Justin Kleber from Baird inquired about the expected retention or 'stickiness' of new Titanium members who signed up through recent promotional offers. He also sought more specific details on the encouraging sales trends observed in July, particularly for the retail segment.

Answer

CFO Jedidiah Gold expressed confidence that the promotional sign-ups for the Titanium tier will prove sticky, anticipating only a minor fallout consistent with past promotions. Regarding July trends, Gold confirmed an encouraging momentum and improvement in retail, but noted this was expected due to a softer year-over-year comparison.

Justin Kleber asked for real-time data on member churn following the broader rollout of the base price increase. He also pointed out a higher price point in Minnesota and asked for the rationale.

Answer

CFO Jedidiah Gold confirmed that real-time churn trends are in line with the results from their initial test markets. CEO John Lai explained that the higher price in Minnesota is an exception driven by the region's strong performance and higher cost of living. Gold reiterated that the system-wide goal is $22.99, not the higher Minnesota price point.

Justin Kleber asked about the company's appetite to take on additional leverage for M&A in the current rate environment and requested color on the modeling assumptions for UWC member growth in 2025.

Answer

CEO John Lai stated a willingness to 'lean in a little bit on leverage' for a quality acquisition with a clear path to deleveraging, noting they also scrutinize lease-adjusted leverage. CFO Jed Gold added that any decision depends on the asset quality and confidence in returning leverage to their target range. For 2025, Gold clarified they assume 'slightly positive' membership growth on a comparable store basis at the high end of the guidance.

Justin Kleber inquired about the cadence of comparable store sales through Q3 and into October, and also asked about the outlook for revenue per member (RPM) growth in 2025 as the company laps its Titanium membership launch.

Answer

Jedidiah Gold, an executive, confirmed that comparable sales saw sequential improvement each month during the quarter, reaching the mid-single-digit range in August and September with further improvement in October. Regarding 2025, Gold stated that while some continued benefit from Titanium is expected, the company is not prepared to provide specific guidance until the Q4 earnings call.

Justin Kleber of Baird sought clarification on the quarter-to-date comp performance, asking if it included a net drag from hurricanes and whether the fourth-quarter guidance incorporates any lift from rebuild efforts.

Answer

CFO Bryan Langley clarified that the quarter-to-date comp of down 4.2% is effectively neutral from storm impacts, as initial headwinds from closures have been offset by some early business pickup. He confirmed that the Q4 guidance does not include any material pickup from hurricane rebuilds, as it is still too early to quantify the potential benefit.