Justin Pellegrino

Justin Pellegrino, on behalf of Vincent Andrews, asked about the Blue Point project, specifically where pressure points (e.g., tariffs, labor) have emerged as the timeline for payments shifted, and what key milestones investors should watch as the project progresses.

Answer

Chris Bohn, President and CEO, clarified that the project timeline for completion in 2029 has not shifted, only the timing of payments as they get closer to engaging contractors. He mentioned upcoming milestones include securing air and Army Corps permits for the heavy haul bridge and commencing civil work (moving ground, driving piles) in the next couple of months. Mr. Bohn also noted a $500 million contingency built into the $3.7 billion total capital spend for the project.

Justin Pellegrino asked about any pressure points or shifts in the Blue Point project timeline and capital spend, and key milestones to watch as the project progresses.

Answer

Martin Jarosick, Vice President of Investor Relations, CF Industries, clarified that the project timeline for Blue Point remains on track for 2029, with only the timing of payments shifting as contractors are engaged. Key upcoming milestones include securing air and Army Corps permits for the heavy haul bridge and commencing civil work like ground moving and pile driving in the next couple of months. He also noted that $500 million of the $3.7 billion capital spend is allocated for contingency.

Justin Pellegrino, on behalf of Vincent Andrews, inquired about Nutrien's proprietary product mix within its retail segment, asking if there's a target percentage mix for the distant future and what drivers could lead to performance above or below expectations for this mix in 2026 and beyond.

Answer

Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO, stated that proprietary products have achieved $1.2 billion in gross margin, with high single-digit growth rates over the past five years, a trend expected to continue. He highlighted growth aspirations across existing product lines, new product innovations, and expansion into international markets. Chris Reynolds, Executive Vice President and President of Nutrien Ag Solutions, added that 26 new proprietary products would be introduced in 2026. He emphasized that growers are increasingly focused on yield in the current commodity price environment and have growing confidence in proprietary products to achieve better yield outcomes, both domestically and internationally.

Justin Pellegrino asked about the proprietary product mix in retail, inquiring if there's a long-term target percentage and what drivers could lead to above or below expectations for this mix in 2026 and beyond.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, confirmed growth aspirations for proprietary products, which have grown to about $1.2 billion in gross margin with high single-digit growth rates over the last five years. Chris Reynolds, Executive Vice President and President, Nutrien Ag Solutions, added that 26 new proprietary products will be introduced in 2026. He emphasized growers' focus on yield, which drives confidence in proprietary products, both domestically and internationally, as a key component of future growth.

Justin Pellegrino asked about the next steps in the anti-dumping duty process, Tronox's strategy to gain market share from other Western suppliers, and if any other markets are being monitored for potential anti-dumping duty measures in the future.

Answer

CEO John Romano indicated that anti-dumping efforts are likely underway in various regions where TiO2 is produced, signaling a shifting market dynamic. He clarified that Tronox's anti-dumping strategy primarily focuses on recapturing market share previously lost to Chinese dumping, rather than directly targeting other Western suppliers, though competition with them remains. He emphasized that anti-dumping measures are designed to address unfair pricing practices.

Justin Pellegrino asked about the next steps in the anti-dumping duty story, specifically how Tronox Holdings plans to take market share from other Western suppliers that was originally ceded to Chinese producers. He also inquired if Tronox is monitoring any other markets for potential future anti-dumping duty measures.

Answer

CEO John Romano stated that anti-dumping duties primarily help Tronox recapture market share lost to China due to dumping, rather than taking share from other Western suppliers. He emphasized that Tronox competes with Western suppliers through its strategic marketing plan. Romano also indicated that work is likely underway to explore anti-dumping measures in other TiO2 producing regions, though he could not provide specifics.

Justin Pellegrino from Morgan Stanley, on for Vincent Andrews, asked to compare the market dynamics in Europe versus India, given both have anti-dumping duties, and requested a sequential outlook for Europe in Q3.

Answer

CEO John Romano explained that while duties are beneficial in both regions, Europe faces more competitive activity, whereas Tronox has a unique advantage in India via the Australia-India Free Trade Agreement. For Q3, he indicated the overall price guide includes a slight downside move, but European demand is not expected to see a significant reduction.

Justin Pellegrino, on for Vincent Andrews, requested a bridge from the higher-than-expected Q1 production costs to the anticipated full-year improvement, asking if it would be driven by fixed cost absorption or lower material prices.

Answer

CFO John Srivisal detailed that the second half improvement will come from several factors: better plant operations, the shutdown of the high-cost Botlek plant, leveraging fixed costs at other facilities, mining cost headwinds abating after H1, and ramping savings from the new cost improvement program. CEO John Romano added that the company is already seeing progress on its SG&A reduction targets.

Justin Pellegrino, on for Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley, asked for an overview of the competitive dynamics in the Titanium Technologies (TT) segment across different global regions. He also inquired if certain anti-dumping duties have been more effective than others and what drives those differences.

Answer

President & CEO Denise Dignam described the competitive landscape as multinational competitors in fair-trade markets, with significant pressure from Chinese producers in other regions. She stated that where anti-dumping duties have been implemented, such as in the U.S. and Europe, they have been very effective after an initial inventory work-down period. She expressed confidence in their future effectiveness in regions like India and Brazil, citing recent drops in Chinese exports to those areas.