Sign in

    Karen Short

    Research Analyst at Melius Research

    Karen F. Short is Managing Director and Head of Consumer and Retail Research at Melius Research LLC, specializing in equity research and market analysis focused on major food, hardlines, and retail companies. She is recognized for her deep expertise and actionable insights, having covered companies such as Walmart, Kroger, and other leading retail brands, and is routinely cited for her top-tier research and advisory work in the sector. Beginning her equity research career at Lehman Brothers in 1999, Short has held senior analyst and Managing Director roles at Credit Suisse, Barclays Investment Bank, Deutsche Bank, and BMO Capital Markets before joining Melius Research in 2024. She holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and her professional credentials include significant advisory roles and prominent industry recognition for excellence in consumer and retail equity research.

    Karen Short's questions to TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ (TSCO) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ (TSCO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Karen Short asked for color on the expected cadence of gross margin versus SG&A within the full-year operating margin guidance, referencing the original forecast for gross margin expansion.

    Answer

    CFO Kurt Barton stated that the underlying drivers remain consistent with original guidance. He reaffirmed the expectation for 20-40 basis points of gross margin expansion and about 50 basis points of SG&A deleverage for the year, with both being more pronounced in the first half. He noted a tariff-driven inflationary environment could shift pressure between the two line items.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ (TSCO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked for clarification on the contribution of new stores to the overall comparable sales waterfall and the outlook for new store productivity going forward.

    Answer

    CFO Kurt Barton explained that new stores provide a modest but net positive contribution to comp sales after accounting for cannibalization. He noted that as the pace of new store openings ramps from 70 to 90 per year, this contribution will increase over the next five years. Barton reiterated that new store productivity and profitability remain extremely consistent and in line with targets, performing at or above expectations.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ (TSCO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked for clarification on the wide range of potential outcomes for Q4 sales and gross profit, seeking specific puts and takes on Q4 margins and any preliminary comments on when the company might return to its long-term growth algorithm.

    Answer

    CEO Hal Lawton attributed the wide Q4 sales range to variables like the timing of cold weather, a shorter holiday season, and the federal election. CFO Kurt Barton added that Q4 gross margin will be relatively flat year-over-year as the company laps significant prior-year benefits. He expects SG&A to leverage better than Q3 but still face pressure from the new DC, leading to an expected operating margin decline year-over-year.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ (TSCO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Karen Short questioned the wide range of potential outcomes for Q4 sales and gross profit, asking for specific puts and takes on Q4 margins and commentary on when the company might return to its long-term growth algorithm.

    Answer

    CEO Hal Lawton and CFO Kurt Barton responded. Lawton attributed the wide Q4 sales range to variables like weather, a shorter holiday season, and the election. Barton projected a relatively flat Q4 gross margin year-over-year as the company laps significant transportation cost benefits, with some SG&A deleverage. Lawton reiterated that returning to the long-term algorithm depends on macro conditions improving.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short of Melius Research asked for an assessment of Albertsons' current price gaps relative to competitors and the target for those gaps. She also inquired if the company could achieve its long-term growth algorithm by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.

    Answer

    CEO-elect Susan Morris explained that price gaps vary significantly across their 120+ markets, so there is no single answer, reiterating a surgical, data-driven approach to investments. President and CFO Sharon McCollam stated that the company expects gradual and incremental improvement, moving in the direction of its long-term algorithm by the end of fiscal 2025.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to DOLLAR TREE (DLTR) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to DOLLAR TREE (DLTR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked about the appropriate run-rate operating margin to expect for the standalone Dollar Tree banner after the 2025 transition year. She also inquired if there was a breakup fee associated with the Family Dollar transaction.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Creedon projected a very attractive multi-year algorithm with healthy margins. CFO Stewart Glendinning added that the operating margin will structurally improve immediately post-sale due to the removal of Family Dollar's lower-margin revenue. While pressured in the short-term by corporate costs, he noted a medium-term target to reduce the corporate SG&A rate by 100 basis points, which will flow to operating margin. More details will be shared at a future Investor Day.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to DOLLAR TREE (DLTR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked about the appropriate run-rate operating margin to expect for the standalone Dollar Tree banner after the 2025 transition year and inquired if there was a breakup fee associated with the Family Dollar sale.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Creedon expressed confidence in achieving an attractive multi-year margin profile. Chief Transformation Officer Stewart Glendinning added that margins will structurally improve post-sale by removing Family Dollar's lower-margin business and that the company is targeting a 100 basis point reduction in the corporate SG&A rate over the medium term. The question regarding a breakup fee was not addressed.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to FIVE BELOW (FIVE) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to FIVE BELOW (FIVE) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked about the company's expected run-rate operating margin, excluding the specific headwinds in 2025, and inquired about the number of SKUs that will be affected by the assortment optimization.

    Answer

    CFO Kristy Chipman reiterated that a 3% comparable sales growth remains the leverage threshold beyond 2025 and that driving sales and reducing shrink are the primary opportunities for margin improvement. CEO Winnie Park specified that the SKU adjustments would affect a minority of the assortment, in the range of '10% to 15%.'

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to FIVE BELOW (FIVE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked about the company's plans for a Chief Merchandising Officer (CMO) replacement and what management considers the optimal number of SKUs for its stores.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman Tom Vellios expressed strong confidence in the current merchandising leadership team, noting its deep experience and the future contributions of incoming CEO Winnie Park. Interim CEO Ken Bull added that the goal is to achieve up to a 20% reduction in SKUs over time through rationalization and productivity improvements, which will create space for essential newness in the assortment.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to KROGER (KR) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to KROGER (KR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked for clarification on Kroger's current price gaps compared to a decade ago and inquired about the expected contribution to operating profit growth from 4-wall store operations versus alternative profit streams.

    Answer

    Interim CFO Todd Foley stated that on an 'all-in' basis, including loyalty and fuel rewards, Kroger's price gap is favorable to the 5-8% historical range mentioned. He also noted that for 2025, operating profit growth is expected to be balanced, with both 4-wall operations and alternative profits contributing in a 'reasonably similar range.'

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to TARGET (TGT) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to TARGET (TGT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short of Melius Research inquired about the expected savings from efficiency programs in the upcoming year, the benefit to full-year guidance, and the anticipated cadence of gross margin, SG&A, and EPS for Q2 through Q4.

    Answer

    COO Michael Fiddelke described efficiency as an "always-on" effort embedded in the guidance, citing fulfillment and store operations as key areas. EVP Richard Gomez and EVP Cara Sylvester added examples from merchandising modernization and AI implementation. CFO James Lee addressed the yearly cadence, noting that SG&A expenses are front-loaded and that the company will lap Q3 supply chain challenges from the prior year, leading to easier profit comparisons in the second half.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to TARGET (TGT) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Karen Short posed three questions: the mix of fashion versus basics in apparel and any plans to pivot; the level of inventory risk in Q4; and whether the guided CapEx level represents a new steady state.

    Answer

    CCO Rick Gomez stated that in apparel, the focus remains on consumer trends, which currently favor a combination of newness, fashion, and value. COO Michael Fiddelke noted that Q3 ending inventory was up 3% YoY, they are well-positioned for the holidays, and the Q4 plan is to end the year 'clean.' CFO Jim Lee clarified that 2025 CapEx is expected to be between $4 billion and $5 billion, up from the ~$3 billion projected for the current year.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to HOME DEPOT (HD) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to HOME DEPOT (HD) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short of Melius Research sought clarification on the operating margin guidance, asking if the adjusted figure (excluding intangible amortization) is the right way to view the business and its leverage. She also asked if 2.5% of sales is the new sustainable run rate for capital expenditures.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Richard McPhail confirmed that adjusted operating margin is the preferred metric for viewing underlying performance and that leverage dynamics are similar to GAAP. He explained that the CapEx forecast has increased from a historical 2% to 2.5% of sales to reflect leaning into high-return investments and accelerating the new store opening program.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short of Melius Research asked whether the company's lower cost structure would lead to greater upside torque on earnings if comps beat expectations, or if management would reinvest the outperformance, keeping flow-through near the guided level.

    Answer

    Retiring President Trevor Lang and CEO Tom Taylor both indicated that with the improved cost structure, better-than-expected sales would flow through very nicely. Taylor added that they would want to see sustained performance before making significant reinvestments. CFO Bryan Langley provided a key metric: at a 5% comp, the entire store and selling expense line leverages, confirming the potential for strong flow-through.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Karen Short of Melius Research asked for the puts and takes behind the wide implied guidance range for the fourth quarter, particularly for comparable sales and EBITDA margins.

    Answer

    An executive explained that the wide range reflects the ongoing volatility in the macro environment, citing the uncertainty around existing home sales. The company narrowed the range from the previous quarter but is maintaining caution. The implied Q4 comp decline of 2.5% to 6.5% is mostly driven by variability in customer transactions, with the average ticket expected to be approximately flat.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW (COST) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW (COST) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Karen Short of Melius Research asked about Costco's philosophy on stock splits, particularly concerning employee stock ownership, and inquired about the potential impact of future tariffs on the business.

    Answer

    Executive Gary Millerchip stated that while Costco has done stock splits in the past and continues to evaluate them, there is no current plan for one, noting that fractional shares make the stock accessible to employees and retail investors. On tariffs, he acknowledged they raise costs but expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage them by pulling forward inventory, working with vendors, and considering alternative sourcing. He contextualized the risk by noting that imported nonfoods represent a minority of the total business.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW (COST) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Karen Short noted that Costco's pre-tax margin has been creeping up and asked how management thinks about its trajectory and whether a level around 4% is a realistic expectation.

    Answer

    Gary Millerchip, an executive, reiterated that the primary goal is driving top-line growth through member and employee investments, not targeting a specific margin. Ron Vachris, an executive, added that there are several levers to improve margin while lowering prices, such as operational efficiencies, improved sell-throughs, and better shrink results. Gary concluded that while they don't provide guidance, they believe it's possible to invest in value and still improve profitability over time, but would not commit to a specific future margin level.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to DOLLAR GENERAL (DG) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to DOLLAR GENERAL (DG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked for specific details on the capital investment required for standard remodels versus the new 'Project Elevate' remodels, as well as the expected return profile for each type of project.

    Answer

    CFO Kelly Dilts stated that the investment for 'Project Elevate' is 'significantly less' than a traditional remodel. While it's early, she said the internal rate of return (IRR) is expected to be significantly higher than new store IRRs and comparable to the returns on traditional remodels.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to BEST BUY CO (BBY) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to BEST BUY CO (BBY) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Karen Short sought clarification on the wide range in the Q4 operating income guidance and asked for any available color on membership renewal rates.

    Answer

    CFO Matt Bilunas attributed the wide operating income guidance range primarily to the potential for SG&A deleverage if sales come in at the lower end of the -3% to flat comp guidance. CEO Corie Barry addressed membership by stating that while specific metrics are not disclosed, retention rates for the paid tiers are currently outperforming the company's internal expectations, and the program continues to grow its member base.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to Walmart (WMT) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to Walmart (WMT) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Karen Short asked about the potential to lower the OpEx ratio back toward 19% and at what point the alternative revenue streams would become material enough for separate disclosure.

    Answer

    CFO John David Rainey stated they will continue with current segment reporting for now. Regarding OpEx, he noted Q3 was impacted by marketing and incentive pay. He explained that while they focus on efficiency, the ongoing mix shift toward digital channels, which have a higher SG&A structure than stores, creates natural pressure on the OpEx line.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Karen Short's questions to LOWES COMPANIES (LOW) leadership

    Karen Short's questions to LOWES COMPANIES (LOW) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Karen Short asked for an explanation of the wide Q4 operating profit guidance range, a specific breakdown of the storm's impact on October comps, and confirmation on the format for the upcoming Analyst Day.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Brandon Sink attributed the wide Q4 guidance to top-line uncertainty from macro pressures, weather volatility, and a shorter holiday shopping period. He declined to provide a monthly storm impact breakdown. He also confirmed that the upcoming Analyst Day will include scenario planning for 2025 and beyond.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI