Kelly Bania

Kelly Bania asked for an update on the progress of shifting buying to a national campaign ('Buying Better Together'), whether expected savings are materializing, and the implications for gross margin in Q4 and next year. She also inquired about the possibility of core grocery categories achieving flattish units by year-end and the performance of fresh versus branded products.

Answer

President and CFO Sharon McCollam stated that the big benefits from the 'Buying Better Together' productivity program are expected in years two and three. CEO Susan Morris added that the new Merchandising Intelligence, powered by AI, will help optimize profitability of price and promotion, and expressed bullishness about future benefits from leveraging size and scale. Regarding units, Sharon McCollam clarified that the company does not expect to reach flat units by year-end 2025 or entering 2026, given negative industry unit trends. Susan Morris noted strong unit inflection in price investment categories, bolstering confidence in their pricing approach.

Kelly Bania asked about the progress of Albertsons' efforts to shift buying to a national campaign rather than localized, whether savings are materializing as expected, and the implications for gross margin outlook in Q4 and next year. She also inquired about the possibility of approaching flattish units by year-end in core grocery categories and the performance of fresh versus branded products.

Answer

President and CFO Sharon McCollam stated that the big benefits from productivity, including national buying, are expected in years two and three of the program. She noted that merchandising intelligence under AI helps optimize profitability. CEO Susan Morris added that under new merchant Michelle Larson's leadership, and with division collaboration, Albertsons is bullish on leveraging its size and scale to buy better, with alignment, a common calendar, and AI tools supporting future benefits in 2026 and beyond. Regarding units, Sharon McCollam stated they do not assume flat units for Q4 2025 or entering 2026, given negative industry unit trends. Susan Morris added that strong unit inflection is seen in price investment categories, bolstering confidence in their pricing approach.

Kelly Bania asked for confirmation that the sequential improvement in grocery units would continue and what underpins the confidence in a stronger second half, as well as for learnings from national buying discussions with vendors.

Answer

President & CFO Sharon McCollam affirmed the expectation for continued sequential improvement in grocery units each quarter, stating this commitment is what drives their confidence. CEO Susan Morris added that discussions on national buying have revealed significant efficiency opportunities for both Albertsons and its vendors through better demand planning. This alignment allows for comprehensive programs that combine media, digital, and pricing to drive volume.

Asked for clarification on whether the sequential improvement in grocery units would continue into Q2, what underpins the confidence for a stronger second half, and what has been learned from vendor discussions about national buying.

Answer

The company expects to continue sequentially improving grocery units each quarter, which is a top priority and the reason for margin investments. This commitment to driving units, funded over time by productivity, is the source of their confidence for the second half. Discussions with vendors on national buying have revealed a significant opportunity for mutual efficiency through better demand planning and alignment on the shared goal of driving units.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets requested more detail on the expected improvement in identical sales in the second half of the year, specifically the drivers between traffic and ticket. She also asked if the guidance includes any conservatism regarding potential changes to SNAP benefits.

Answer

President and CFO Sharon McCollam reiterated that customer traffic is positive and that the key opportunity in 2025 is to drive units, which is the focus of their strategic initiatives. She did not directly address SNAP conservatism but highlighted that the guidance reflects the opportunity to bring units back into the store.

Inquired about how the company balances first-party (1P) versus third-party (3P) e-commerce growth, considering margins and the media collective. Also asked if 1P is mostly pickup and how long the associated margin pressure will last.

Answer

First-party e-commerce is larger and growing faster than third-party, which the company prefers as it drives digital engagement and provides data for the media collective. As the overall digital business is expected to continue growing substantially from its current 7% penetration, the associated negative mix-shift on gross margin is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, which is viewed as a positive trade-off for the data and customer value.

Kelly Bania asked for details on the mix between first-party (1P) and third-party (3P) e-commerce, the strategy for balancing them, and the associated margin implications. She also asked how long the margin pressure from picking costs is expected to last.

Answer

CEO Vivek Sankaran confirmed that 1P e-commerce is larger and growing faster, which is favorable as it drives engagement and provides data for the Albertsons Media Collective. President and CFO Sharon McCollam added that since digital is still underpenetrated at 7% of grocery sales, she expects its growth and the related margin mix-shift impact to continue for the foreseeable future, viewing it as a positive trade-off for customer data and lifetime value.

Kelly Bania asked for clarification on the expectation of continued slight decline in renewal rates over the next few quarters, despite recent mitigation success, and if membership rates would be improving when excluding the cohort of younger, digitally signed-up members.

Answer

Gary Millerchip (CFO, Costco Wholesale Corporation) confirmed that the slight decline in renewal rates is primarily due to the higher proportion of younger, digitally signed-up members who historically renew at a lower rate. He noted encouraging early success with targeted communications to mitigate this, but emphasized that work remains to close the renewal rate gap between digital and warehouse sign-ups, hence the possibility of slight declines in the near future.

Kelly Bania asked about Gary Millerchip's comment regarding a potential continued decline in renewal rates for the next few quarters, questioning if this was conservatism given recent mitigation success, and whether membership rates would improve if the younger, digitally-signed-up cohort were excluded.

Answer

Gary Millerchip, Chief Financial Officer, clarified that the anticipated slight decline in renewal rates is due to the mathematical impact of a growing base of younger, digitally-signed-up members who historically renew at a lower rate. He confirmed that while early targeted communications have shown encouraging success in mitigating this, it's still early, and transparency requires acknowledging potential slight declines in the near term as Costco works to close the renewal rate gap between digital and warehouse sign-ups.

Kelly Bania inquired about the components of Costco's 6-7% year-over-year membership growth (e.g., low single-digit U.S., high single-digit international) and the long-term potential for U.S. household membership penetration.

Answer

CFO Gary Millerchip stated that Costco's focus is on delivering value to members, which drives organic growth through word-of-mouth. He noted that international markets typically see larger new membership numbers due to less awareness, while U.S. fill-in warehouses drive quick sales growth and free up capacity in existing stores. He expressed confidence in continued membership base growth without providing specific penetration targets.

Kelly Bania inquired about the components of Costco's 6-7% year-over-year total membership household growth, specifically if it's low single-digit in the U.S. and high single-digit internationally. She also asked for an estimate of Costco's current U.S. household membership penetration and its long-term potential.

Answer

EVP & CFO Gary Millerchip explained that Costco's focus is on delivering member value to drive organic growth, rather than specific regional breakdowns. He confirmed that international markets typically see larger new membership numbers due to less awareness, while U.S. fill-in stores quickly grow sales and free up capacity in existing warehouses. He believes there's continued opportunity to grow the membership base.

Kelly Bania inquired about the components of Costco's 6-7% year-over-year membership growth, specifically asking if it's low single-digit in the U.S. and high single-digit internationally, and estimated the percentage of U.S. households that are members and future potential.

Answer

CFO Gary Millerchip focused on delivering value to members as the core driver of membership growth, noting organic growth from word-of-mouth. He confirmed higher new membership numbers in international markets and quick sales growth in U.S. infill stores, which also frees up capacity in existing warehouses.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets inquired about inventory planning for the second half of the year amid tariff uncertainty, the potential for more opportunistic buys, and the strategy behind the new Affirm partnership.

Answer

CFO Gary Millerchip explained that their tariff strategy is item-by-item, holding prices on staples like bananas while allowing some increases on discretionary goods like flowers. On the Affirm partnership, he stated it addresses member demand for financing big-ticket purchases and allows Costco to provide exclusive rates, enhancing the overall value proposition for those items.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets inquired about Costco's inventory planning, asking how much of potential tariff-related cost increases might be passed to consumers and the expected impact on discretionary sales. She also asked about the strategic rationale for the new partnership with Affirm.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Gary Millerchip explained that the response to tariffs is handled item-by-item, with the company absorbing costs on key staples like bananas while passing some on for more discretionary items like flowers. He also noted a focus on sourcing more U.S.-made goods. Regarding Affirm, he stated the partnership provides members with more payment flexibility and exclusive rates for big-ticket purchases, a category where Costco is seeing strong growth.

Kelly Bania inquired about updates on membership fee increases in international markets and the status of Executive Membership rollouts in those countries.

Answer

Executive Gary Millerchip confirmed recent or planned fee increases in Japan and Korea, which follow their own cadence separate from the U.S. He also noted that while Executive Membership exists in mature international markets, there remains a significant opportunity to increase its penetration to levels seen in the U.S. and Canada.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets inquired about the learnings from Costco's partnerships with Instacart and Uber, the pace of growth for these services, and their impact on comparable sales.

Answer

Executive Ron Vachris described the partnerships as very strong, noting they drive great incrementality and increase member shop frequency, often for fill-in trips between larger brick-and-mortar visits. He highlighted the cost-effectiveness of using these services for rapid local delivery of smaller items. Executive Gary Millerchip added that the growth of these services continues to be very strong, growing at a pace slightly higher than Costco's overall e-commerce business.

Kelly Bania requested an update on e-commerce, including its penetration, profitability, and impact on margins. She also asked what the penetration would be if sales from partners like Instacart were included.

Answer

Gary Millerchip, an executive, stated that e-commerce has a compounded annual growth rate of over 20% for the last 10 years. He noted that penetration is in the high single-digit range as reported, but would be in the double-digit range if digitally-started sales like Instacart were included. On profitability, he said it remains marginally lower than in-warehouse sales but is on an improving trend due to sales leverage and better fulfillment efficiency.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets asked for a more specific breakdown of pharmacy's impact on the quarter and insights into the core grocery business, including inflation, unit trends, and market share. She also inquired about the planned reinvestment of e-commerce profitability improvements, specifically how the funds would be allocated between pricing and store standards, and Kroger's assessment of its current price positioning and store standards.

Answer

CFO David Kennerley stated pharmacy's impact was consistent with recent quarters. He noted a slight deceleration in unit trends in Q3, primarily in discretionary categories and meat due to inflation, but highlighted improvements in deli and natural/organic foods. Regarding e-commerce reinvestment, Kennerley mentioned that the allocation for 2026 would be detailed later but would include investments in pricing, customer/in-store experience, and operating margin improvement. Chairman and CEO Ron Sargent added technology spend as another area for investment.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets asked about the specific factors driving the sequential acceleration in digital sales. She also sought to clarify the composition of delivery demand, particularly the mix between third-party services and Ocado-enabled fulfillment.

Answer

Interim CEO & Chairman Ronald Sargent attributed the strong digital growth to broad-based execution and a key structural change: consolidating the entire e-commerce business under a single leader, which created clear ownership. EVP & CFO David Kennerly added that key metrics like households and order volume grew favorably. He also reiterated that the recent Ocado financial development was a standard contractual matter and not indicative of a strategic shift.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets inquired about the specific factors driving the sequential acceleration in digital sales. She also sought to clarify the mix of delivery demand between same-day services like Instacart and Kroger's Ocado-enabled fulfillment.

Answer

Interim CEO & Chairman Ronald Sargent attributed the digital growth to broad-based execution and the new consolidated leadership structure under a single owner, which improves focus and accountability. EVP & CFO David Kennerly added that key metrics like households and order volume grew favorably. The executives did not provide a specific breakdown of the delivery mix but reiterated that the recent Ocado financial transaction was a standard contractual matter.

Kelly Bania questioned the 2025 gross margin guidance, which is planned to be flat after several years of expansion, and asked what factors are different this year. She also asked for the growth plan for alternative profits.

Answer

Interim CFO Todd Foley attributed the strong 2024 margin performance in part to significant gains from shrink reduction initiatives, which he expects to begin cycling mid-year. He reiterated that margin gains are reinvested into price. For alternative profits, he stated that dollar growth in 2025 is expected to be better than in 2024, without providing a specific target.

Kelly Bania asked for more detail on the strong gross margin performance, specifically questioning the impact of digital operations and the outlook for digital profitability.

Answer

Interim CFO Todd Foley attributed the margin strength to robust sales in Our Brands and improved shrink. CEO Rodney McMullen added that digitally engaged customers are more loyal across all channels. He emphasized that the high-margin retail media business is a key driver of improving digital profitability.

Kelly Bania asked about the market share trends for consumables from a unit perspective, noting a significant shift in Q3, and inquired if this was attributable to the restickering impact or other factors.

Answer

CEO Mike Creedon attributed the shift in consumables market share to the 'red dots' (restickering) which caused a 'mass distraction' that peaked in Q3. He noted that customer sentiment, tracked through surveys, has shown weekly improvement since then, with fewer negative mentions of pricing.

Kelly Bania asked about Dollar Tree's consumables market share trends from a unit perspective, noting a strong first half but a shift in Q3, and sought an explanation, including the impact of restickering.

Answer

CEO Mike Creedon attributed the shift in consumables market share to the 'red dots' (restickering) peaking in Q3, which caused a 'mass distraction.' He noted that customer sentiment, tracked via surveys and ratings, has improved every week since the peak of restickering, which is now largely complete.

Kelly Banya asked about the key factors driving Dollar Tree's updated gross margin outlook of 50 basis points expansion, including the impact of pricing actions, freight, and other contributing factors.

Answer

CFO Stuart Glendinning explained that the gross margin outlook involves many moving parts, including freight benefits, inventory revaluation, and mark-ons, which are partially offset by higher markdowns. He emphasized the company's focus on maintaining a strong gross margin through its 'five levers' strategy.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets requested more detail on the incremental Q2 costs, including the impact of the 145% tariff, the drivers of the $40 million SG&A increase, and the factors behind the expected gross margin expansion in the second half.

Answer

CFO Stewart Glendinning confirmed a significant impact from the temporary 145% tariff but noted the complexity of isolating the exact amount. He attributed the SG&A increase to investments in store hours and labor for strong execution, which are not expected to be permanent. He stated that second-half gross margin drivers will be similar to Q1, led by freight benefits partially offset by shrink and markdowns.

Kelly Bania asked about the sustainability of procurement gains in Q1, whether they were planned for future outlooks, and if they contributed to internal plan upside, along with any specific categories involved. She also inquired about the conventional business's ability to hit targets despite mid-single-digit core sales pressure and if suppliers are increasing promotions. Finally, she asked for more detail on the widespread nature of natural growth and UNFI's view on a potential slowdown.

Answer

President and CFO Matteo Tarditi confirmed that no procurement gains are modeled in the 2026 or 2027 outlook, viewing them as temporary, and noted that any Q1 upside was offset by other dynamics. He mentioned that gains were a combination across categories, partly related to tariffs and inflation. CEO Sandy Douglas explained that conventional pressure stems from consumer situations and discount efficacy, with retailers responding through competitive pricing and innovative assortments. For natural, he described it as a retailer-by-retailer story, including project work and secular health, with the category expected to be a mid-single-digit grower. Matteo Tarditi added that the full-year sales outlook is flat, consistent with Q1, reflecting underlying natural growth similar to the long-term industry average.

Kelly Bania asked for clarification on whether procurement gains, which aided Q1, are excluded from future outlooks and if they contributed to internal plan upside, along with specific categories involved. She also inquired about the conventional wholesale business's ability to hit targets despite mid-single-digit core sales pressure and whether suppliers are becoming more promotional. Finally, she asked about the widespread nature of natural growth and if UNFI sees broader adoption despite signs of slowdown.

Answer

Matteo Tarditi (President and CFO, UNFI) confirmed that no procurement gains are modeled in the 2026 or 2027 outlook, viewing them as temporary. He noted that Q1 procurement gains were offset by other dynamics and were a combination across categories, partly related to tariffs and inflation. Sandy Douglas (CEO, UNFI) explained that conventional pressure, beyond optimization, stems from consumer situations and discount efficacy, driving retailers to be competitive on key value items and innovate assortments. He emphasized UNFI's role in helping retailers differentiate. For natural growth, Sandy Douglas described it as retailer-by-retailer, including project work and secular health, expecting UNFI to perform strongly. Matteo Tarditi provided a helicopter view of the sales outlook, noting Q2's full impact of optimization, Q3's ramp-down of project work, and Q4's easier cyber-related comp.

Kelly Bania sought clarification on UNFI's volume metrics, specifically if volumes would have been positive excluding the cyber incident and how this impact was distributed across channels. She also asked about the primary factors contributing to the raised adjusted EBITDA algorithm for the next few years.

Answer

President and CFO Matteo Tarditi confirmed that full-year volume was up about 1.5% in fiscal 2025, with natural volumes skewed higher and the cyber incident having a slightly heavier impact on the conventional front. He identified three main factors for the raised adjusted EBITDA algorithm: stronger low-single-digit top-line growth, continuous progress in shrink reduction and supplier programs, and ongoing productivity efforts including full-year realization of 2025 actions and focus on indirect spend.

Kelly Bania sought clarification on UNFI's volume metrics, specifically if volumes would have been approximately +2% excluding the cyber incident in the quarter, and how this impact was distributed across channels. She also asked about the primary factors contributing to the raised adjusted EBITDA algorithm for the next few years.

Answer

President and CFO Matteo Tarditi confirmed that full-year 2025 volume was up about 1.5%, with natural volumes skewed higher. He noted the cyber incident's impact was slightly heavier on the conventional front. He identified three main factors for the raised adjusted EBITDA algorithm: low single-digit top-line growth (vs. flat previously), continuous progress in shrink reduction and supplier programs, and ongoing productivity efforts, including full-year realization of 2025 actions and focus on indirect spend.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets inquired about the current demand for natural and organic products within conventional retail channels and whether the cross-selling strategy has evolved. She also asked about the focus of Lean initiatives across DC types and the magnitude of new customer wins that will soon be lapped.

Answer

CEO James Alexander Douglas affirmed that the cross-selling opportunity remains significant, fueled by a broad consumer trend toward 'better-for-you' products. President & CFO Giorgio Tarditi added that Lean initiatives are being implemented in a balanced manner across both natural and conventional DCs with positive results. He clarified that the expected H2 sales deceleration is due to cycling strong new customer gains from the prior year.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets asked for a deeper explanation of the network optimization strategy, details on the new supplier fee structure, and the growth plans for professional and digital services.

Answer

CEO Sandy Douglas described network optimization as a multi-year plan to improve efficiency and returns, primarily in the conventional business. He explained the new supplier fee structure simplifies charges and speeds products to shelf. He also noted that digital services penetration is growing, with new offerings like the retail media network being added.

Kelly Bania observed the consistency of Walmart's key metrics despite broader consumer weakness and asked about month-to-month volatility, signs of trade-down, and the company's flexibility for aggressive pricing in response to consumer reactions to tariffs or cost of living dynamics.

Answer

John David Rainey (EVP and CFO) affirmed strong price gaps and over 7,000 rollbacks, noting consistent quarter-to-quarter performance with some moderation in lower-income cohorts, but Walmart's insulation due to its value proposition. John Furner (President and CEO, Walmart U.S.) highlighted accelerated gains with higher-income customers, strong apparel growth (over 5% each month), and increased participation in faster delivery across all income levels. John David Rainey also mentioned the marketplace's role in offering a broader assortment, with categories like Automotive, Toys, Electronics, and Apparel growing over 40% year-on-year. Chris Nicholas (CEO, Sam's Club U.S.) provided an example of significant volume increase from a price reduction on croissants, demonstrating consumer responsiveness to value.

Kelly Bania observed the consistency of Walmart's key metrics despite broader consumer weakness and asked about month-to-month volatility, signs of trade-down or behavioral changes, and the company's flexibility for aggressive pricing or model adjustments in anticipation of future consumer reactions.

Answer

EVP and CFO John David Rainey stated that the quarter was consistent with no significant month-to-month volatility. He noted some moderation in spending within the low-income cohort, aligning with macro trends, but emphasized Walmart's strong value proposition. President and CEO, Walmart U.S., John Furner, added that accelerated gains were seen with higher-income customers, particularly in categories like apparel and home, and that all income levels are utilizing faster delivery options. CEO, Sam's Club US, Chris Nicholas, highlighted Sam's Club's trusted value proposition and the strong response to price drops, citing an example of doubled croissant volume after a price reduction.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets asked why U.S. markups were lower than planned, questioning if it was due to tariff mitigation or more rollbacks, and what the general merchandise inflation trend implies for the back half.

Answer

Walmart US CEO & President John Furner credited the performance to strong inventory management, which created tailwinds from lower markdowns and shrinkage. He noted that with sales growing faster than inventory, inventory turns are increasing, putting them in a good position. He reiterated that they will continue to manage price gaps and deliver value to customers.

Kelly Bania questioned if the normalized 5-7% EBIT growth guidance is conservative given current momentum, and asked about assumptions for potential tariffs and the demand for expedited delivery.

Answer

CEO Doug McMillon stated that tariffs are managed as a normal course of business. CFO John David Rainey confirmed no explicit tariff assumption is in the guidance and that the outlook is prudent for the start of the year. He highlighted that newer, higher-margin businesses like advertising and membership contributed over half of Q4's operating income growth, and that U.S. e-commerce losses improved by 80% in the last year, driven by factors like expedited delivery fees.

Kelly Bania asked if Sprouts' promotional strategy had become more aggressive on price and promotion lately, shifting from a focus on product attributes and seasonal highlights. She inquired if this was accurate, if it was a response to the comp trajectory, and how consumers were responding to promotions. She also asked if Sprouts would reconsider its promotional activity level if consumer softness were to continue, particularly for sensitive customers.

Answer

Nick Konat, President and Chief Operating Officer, clarified that Sprouts was not changing its pricing or promotional philosophy in any consequential way, as customers define value through quality, innovation, freshness, and health. He noted they conduct key events and test messaging but maintain consistency in strategy and margin management. He added that the new personalization capability offers a lever to target promotional spend. If consumer softness continues, Nick stated they would not broadly reconsider promotional activity, as their customer base responds more to unique offerings than aggressive price plays, though they continuously monitor local market dynamics and item pricing.

Kelly Bania asked about Sprouts' promotional strategy, questioning if messaging has become more aggressive on price and promotion, and how consumers are responding. She also asked if the company would reconsider promotional activity if consumer softness continues.

Answer

President and COO Nick Konat stated that Sprouts is not changing its pricing or promotional philosophy in any consequential way, continuing to lean on quality, innovation, freshness, and health. He noted that personalization capabilities through loyalty offer a new lever to target promotional spend, and that current consumer softness would not lead to a broad strategic change in promotional activity.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets sought more detail on the loyalty program, asking about the expected timing for its benefits to accrue and whether the primary opportunity lies in driving customer traffic or increasing basket size.

Answer

CFO Curtis Valentine expects the loyalty program to be a comp driver in 2026, noting it will take time to build the database due to Sprouts' shopping frequency. He anticipates benefits across frequency, basket, and retention, but the exact mix is yet to be determined. CEO Jack Sinclair added that customer feedback has been very positive, reinforcing their excitement for the 2026 impact.

Kelly Bania asked about e-commerce performance, noting the consistent growth across partners. She specifically inquired about the impact of Instacart lowering its minimum delivery threshold and whether this was driving growth in categories like prepared foods.

Answer

President and COO Nick Konat confirmed the strong 28% e-commerce growth was seen across all partners, including Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats. He stated that while Instacart remains the largest partner, the primary driver of online sales is Sprouts' unique and differentiated product offering. He suggested that while lower delivery minimums might help slightly, Sprouts customers are typically more focused on finding specific products and attributes than on deals.

Kelly Bania inquired about the strategy behind the high number of new item introductions and SKU rotation, and asked for details on the P&L impact of transitioning meat and seafood to self-distribution.

Answer

CEO Jack Sinclair explained that the constant rotation of their ~20,000 SKUs is a key part of the customer's "treasure hunt" experience and brand strategy. CFO Curtis Valentine stated that while self-distribution of proteins will offer long-term gross margin benefits starting in 2026, 2025 will be a transition year with no material P&L impact anticipated.

Kelly Bania asked for details on the drivers of e-commerce growth, its potential long-term penetration rate, and for an update on the loyalty program test.

Answer

CEO Jack Sinclair highlighted that e-commerce growth is strong across all partners (Instacart, DoorDash, Uber Eats) and that the product mix online mirrors the in-store mix, showing customer trust. He stated that the loyalty test in Tucson and Nashville is meeting goals for sign-ups and scans, with the focus now on learning from the data. A broader rollout is planned for late 2025 to create a unique, non-generic program.

Kelly Ann Bania asked for more details on the acceleration in growth over the past couple of months, specifically how it played out between mature and higher-growth markets, and if any categories or regions stood out. She also asked about the impact of salesforce training and digital tools, and the rationale behind the Italco acquisition.

Answer

Chris Pappas, Founder, Chairman, and CEO, explained that growth is broad-based, with larger markets having more impact and smaller markets showing higher percentage growth. He attributed success to extensive salesforce training, digital tools (including AI), and a disciplined focus on their niche. He described Italco as a high-quality, pure specialty business in a dynamic growth market like Colorado, offering significant expansion opportunities.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets questioned why the full-year guidance implies a second-half slowdown despite strong momentum. She also asked for elaboration on the strong placement growth as an indicator of cross-selling success in Texas and inquired about the M&A pipeline.

Answer

CFO James Leddy clarified that the guidance reflects tougher year-over-year comparisons from a very strong H2 2024, not a slowdown in business momentum. CEO Christopher Pappas explained that the Texas strategy is a long-term plan to transform Hardee's into a CW-style business, and the mix will be "muddy" in the near term. Regarding M&A, Pappas stated they are always opportunistic but valuations have been high, and they are currently focused on smaller, tuck-in acquisitions to leverage existing capacity.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets followed up on how the attrition of a non-core customer impacted center-of-the-plate growth, the extent of the business shift to suburbs versus pre-COVID, and the implied conservatism in the full-year guidance.

Answer

James Leddy, CFO, explained the center-of-the-plate margin change was due to a mix shift to higher-dollar products and managing price inflation to drive gross profit dollar growth. Christopher Pappas, Founder, Chairman and CEO, noted a definite rebalancing of business toward the suburbs since pre-COVID. Regarding guidance, he stated it's their standard practice not to make significant changes after Q1 and that it reflects conservatism due to macroeconomic uncertainty and tougher second-half comparisons.

Kelly Bania asked for a breakdown of the 4-7% organic growth guidance between high-growth and mature markets, with a focus on the Texas market integration. She also inquired about the 56% digital ordering penetration, its competitive standing, and its impact on margins.

Answer

CFO James Leddy explained that high-growth markets (like Florida, Texas, Seattle) are growing double-digits (10-20%), while mature markets are growing in the mid-single digits. CEO Christopher Pappas described the Texas transformation as being in the 'second inning' of a multi-year plan to align it with the Chefs' Warehouse model. Regarding digital, Pappas noted tremendous upside as penetration grows towards 80-90%, which helps margins and placements by turning salespeople into consultants and allowing customers to discover more items from the company's long-tail inventory.

Kelly Bania asked for details on the biggest contributors to the 2028 margin expansion goal, particularly route consolidation, and inquired about the new restaurant opening environment and the potential impact of interest rates.

Answer

CEO Chris Pappas described the margin drivers as 'Goldilocks,' coming from pricing, category management, and operational efficiencies like leveraging fixed costs in larger warehouses as volume grows. He also noted that they continue to shed non-core, low-margin business. On restaurant openings, he sees continued strong growth from opportunistic independent operators and believes great locations and economics are bigger drivers than interest rates.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets asked for further learnings or refinements to the original $45 million synergy plan for SEFCO, nearly 10 months post-acquisition. She also sought color on how SEFCO stores are currently comping and the competitive environment they face, noting some basic changes already helping margins.

Answer

CEO Darren Rebelez stated that SEFCO integration is on track, with early synergies from fuel and G&A meeting expectations. He noted that the biggest synergies from prepared foods require store remodels and kitchen installations, which haven't started in earnest but are being planned. CFO Steve Bramlage added that while $45 million is still a good synergy target, prospects once kitchens are remodeled suggest landing above that number.

Kelly Bania asked for further learnings and refinements to the original $45 million synergy plan for SEFCO, inquiring about how SEFCO stores are comping and the competitive environment they face.

Answer

Darren Rebelez, President, CEO & Board Chair, stated that the SEFCO integration is on track, with early synergies from fuel and G&A. He noted that the biggest synergies, from integrating prepared foods, require remodels that haven't fully begun, and there's 'a lot of noise' in comping numbers due to operational changes. Steve Bramlage, CFO, added that they are ahead on fuel and SG&A synergies, and while $45 million remains a good target, prospects after kitchen remodels suggest they might exceed it.

Kelly Bania questioned the rationale for the 2% to 5% same-store sales outlook for fiscal 2026, noting the low end is below recent years, and asked for more details on the encouraging chicken wing test. She also inquired about the EBITDA contribution from CEFCO in Q4 and the amount embedded in the FY26 outlook.

Answer

CEO Darren Rebelez explained the same-store sales range reflects reasonable conservatism given the economic environment but expressed confidence in current business momentum. He noted the wing test is small (225 stores) but showing strong early results. CFO Steve Bramlage confirmed the FICS deal was EBITDA accretive in Q4 and will be for each quarter of FY26, contributing a double-digit million amount quarterly, though less than the pro forma $80 million due to store maturity.

Kelly Bania inquired about the 2% to 5% same-store sales outlook for FY26, questioning if the low end was overly conservative. She also asked for more details on the chicken wing test and the expected EBITDA contribution from the CEFCO acquisition.

Answer

President and CEO Darren Rebelez explained the guidance range reflects confidence but includes reasonable conservatism. He noted the wing test is encouraging but not a material contributor to the FY26 plan. CFO Steve Bramlage confirmed CEFCO was EBITDA accretive in Q4 and will be in FY26, contributing 'double-digit millions' each quarter, though below the initial pro forma figure due to store maturity assumptions.

Kelly Bania asked for the specific EBITDA contribution from the Fikes acquisition in the quarter and its impact on the updated full-year EBITDA growth forecast of 11%.

Answer

CFO Steve Bramlage clarified that the Fikes acquisition was EBITDA dilutive in Q3 due to $13 million in one-time integration costs. He noted it will be modestly EBITDA positive in Q4 but is not a significant driver of the raised annual guidance; the improved outlook is attributable to the strong performance of the core 'mothership' business.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets asked for a breakdown of the discretionary category's comp performance between price, mix, and units, and inquired about the inflation assumptions for these categories in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Todd Vasos explained that the average unit retail (AUR) was similar year-over-year and that tariffs were not a significant factor in the Q2 non-consumable comp. He stated that despite tariffs flowing in, the team is managing price points effectively, with 25% of the holiday assortment at $1 or less. He attributed the positive momentum to strong execution, brand partnerships, and new product introductions rather than inflation.

Kelly Bania requested more details on the new same-day delivery pilot, including initial learnings, the cost structure for consumers, margin implications, and its potential long-term contribution to Dollar General's growth.

Answer

CEO Todd Vasos explained the pilot uses a third party to minimize store labor impact and is designed to be low-cost for both the customer and the company. He highlighted its potential to not only drive sales and loyalty but also to significantly enhance the DG Media Network, a key strategic priority.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets asked about the progress on the procurement savings target outlined at the recent Analyst Day and its contribution to the fiscal 2026 outlook. She also inquired about the outlook for the Convenience segment and the key drivers needed for a turnaround.

Answer

COO Scott McPherson stated that PFG is on pace to achieve its three-year procurement synergy goals, with the benefits expected to be spread evenly over the period. On the Convenience segment, McPherson noted that while the macro environment remains challenged, PFG is outperforming by gaining share and benefiting from return-to-office trends. CFO Patrick Hatcher clarified that the fiscal 2026 outlook for Convenience is based on new business wins rather than an assumed macro recovery.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets asked about the competitive landscape, specifically how smaller distributors are reacting to the volatile environment and whether there is increased competition for sales talent.

Answer

CEO George Holm stated that the market is more competitive than it has been since the Great Recession, which is typical when volume is scarce. He noted that data suggests large distributors continue to gain market share from smaller ones. On the talent front, he reported no change, citing a 'great pipeline' of experienced salespeople available, which supports the company's decision to continue hiring at an accelerated rate.

Kelly Bania asked for details on the drivers behind the increased sales outlook, inquiring which segments were contributing most and requesting more specifics on management's comments about consumer stabilization and cost of goods optimization.

Answer

COO Scott McPherson attributed the positive sales trend to strong independent restaurant growth, a rebound in national chain accounts, and continued market share gains in the convenience segment. CFO Patrick Hatcher noted that Vistar would likely be a laggard in sales growth. Regarding costs, McPherson explained that while cost optimization has always been a focus, increased collaboration across business segments has recently enhanced these efforts.

Kelly Bania asked for more detail on the "signs of stability" management is seeing across different channels, specific performance trends in Convenience and Vistar, and the integration timeline for the Cheney acquisition, including the expected cadence of synergies.

Answer

CEO George Holm explained that PFG continues to gain market share, with strength in high-end QSR and independent restaurants offsetting weakness in some casual dining chains. He noted that Vistar faces challenges in its theater channel, while the Convenience segment is seeing same-store sales declines. Regarding the Cheney integration, Holm emphasized a focus on culture and people over rapid synergy extraction, stating that synergies, particularly from private brands, will likely develop in the second and third years, following the successful Reinhart acquisition model.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets asked about the potential risk of cutting expenses too aggressively in light of softer top-line case growth, and questioned the timeline for when case growth and EBITDA growth might become more balanced in line with the long-range plan.

Answer

CEO Dave Flitman expressed confidence that case growth will accelerate in the second half of the year and stated he is not concerned about aggressive cost-cutting, emphasizing that productivity gains are being achieved in a healthy and sustainable way. CFO Dirk Locascio added that margin expansion is broad-based, driven by gross profit initiatives like cost of goods management, customer mix, and private label growth, not just operating expense reduction.

Kelly Bania inquired about the additional expense levers US Foods could utilize if demand weakens, asking if the newly mentioned $30 million in savings was incremental. She also requested historical context on the improved selector and driver turnover rates and an update on sales force turnover.

Answer

CEO Dave Flitman confirmed the $30 million in administrative cost actions is incremental to the $120 million from last year, with savings beginning in late Q1. Regarding workforce stability, Flitman stated that supply chain turnover has improved to its best level in five years, is no longer a significant issue, and that sales force turnover remains in line with historical norms with no issues attracting talent.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets inquired about any underlying trends in restaurant traffic related to cuisine types, consumer income levels, or regions. She also asked about the expected trajectory for sales force headcount growth in 2025 and the status of the sales team's compensation structure.

Answer

CEO David Flitman noted that foot traffic pressure has been broad-based, but the company's strength in the bar and grill segment has been a relative positive. He confirmed that seller headcount growth is expected to remain in the 4-6% range for 2025 and that the company feels good about the current compensation plan, with no significant changes planned.

Kelly Bania asked for an update on the cost of goods sold (COGS) savings initiatives, including vendor reactions, and inquired about the new business pipeline and capacity within the health care segment.

Answer

CEO David Flitman expressed high confidence in achieving COGS savings targets, highlighting a collaborative "win-win" approach with vendors who value US Foods' market share growth. CFO Dirk Locascio noted the health care pipeline is strong and that onboarding new health care accounts is efficient as they typically purchase products already stocked in distribution centers.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets asked about the 'price agility' initiative, its financial implications, the change management involved, and its rollout plan. She also followed up on the potential impact of the 'Perks 2.0' program.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hourican explained that 'price agility' aims to grow volume profitably without hurting margin rates and is still in a pilot phase with no major impact assumed in FY26 guidance. He described 'Perks 2.0' as a significant shift to a superior service model for top customers, which is rolling out nationwide and is a meaningful enabler of the FY26 plan by driving retention and penetration. CFO Kenny Cheung emphasized that sales colleague stability remains the primary growth driver.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets asked for details on the stronger sales exit trends in September, October tracking, and the drivers behind management's confidence in the new sales compensation model's second-half impact.

Answer

CFO Kenny Cheung stated that Q2 EPS growth is expected to be slightly higher than Q1, with October traffic similar to September's. CEO Kevin Hourican added that confidence in the new sales compensation model stems from its pay-for-performance structure, which is successfully driving new customer acquisition and total team selling. He noted that while there was a transitory impact from turnover in Q1, the program is now stable and favored by top performers.

Kelly Bania from BMO Capital Markets sought to understand the underlying performance of the remaining retail stores after the dealerization conversions, asking about their specific same-store sales and gallon trends. She also asked about the gallon volume assumptions for 2025 that support the retail and wholesale guidance.

Answer

EVP and CFO Rob Giammatteo stated that the remaining, more productive stores are outperforming the chain average, though trends are still negative, which is why guidance is shifting to an 'average store' performance metric. He noted 9 million gallons shifted to wholesale in Q4 from converted stores. CEO Arie Kotler added that the goal is to focus on the best stores and that the new fuel campaign aims to grow both gallons and overall store traffic.

Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets asked about the drivers for the improved Q4 same-store sales outlook, the financial impact of recent hurricane activity, the nature of Q3 promotional activity and vendor support, the timeline for the store optimization program, and the reasons for the decline in same-store operating expenses.

Answer

CFO Robert Giammatteo explained that a 'markedly better' October contributed to the improved Q4 outlook and that hurricane impact was not material. CEO Arie Kotler stated that promotions, like the 'Fas Million' sweepstakes, are fully funded by vendors. He clarified the initial 150 store conversions will be done by year-end, with the total program expected to benefit operating income by $15-$20 million. Giammatteo attributed the 1.4% opex decline to rightsizing labor amid softer sales and lower credit card fees.

On behalf of Kelly Bania, Dan Wood asked about the cadence of sales volume, inflation, and promotions during the quarter. He also questioned whether promotions were driving the expected volume lift and if vendor support was adequate, and finally asked for the key drivers behind the implied sales acceleration in the second half guidance.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jason Monaco responded that the revenue profile and promotional intensity were relatively stable through the quarter, with a minor drag from fading SNAP benefits early on. He stated that promotions are delivering effectively and are back to pre-COVID levels, though the consumer environment remains challenging. For the second-half outlook, Mr. Monaco attributed the expected improvement to lapping the Amazon-driven sales decline and continued growth in the military business, with inflation projected to remain modest.