Kelly Crago

Kelly Crago asked about Ulta Beauty's philosophy regarding its long-term EBIT margin target of 12%, given that the company is currently running ahead of that. She questioned whether the 12% target should still be anchored for FY26 and if SG&A would be a source of leverage or if gross margin would drive investment.

Answer

President and CEO Kecia Steelman stated that while FY25 guidance is 12.3%-12.4%, it's premature to change long-term targets. She affirmed that FY26 will not be another heavy investment year, and EBIT margin is not expected to deteriorate from FY25 levels. She emphasized building a plan to invest, remain relevant, and gain market share, with the new CFO also contributing to the long-term strategy.

Kelly Crago asked for context on the flat performance of prestige makeup versus the industry, the innovation pipeline in that category, and the quantifiable drag from new competitive distribution points, including a timeline for when those headwinds might abate.

Answer

CEO Dave Kimbell explained that flat prestige makeup performance was an improvement, driven by new brands like ILIA and strong event execution. He noted the overall prestige makeup category grew in the low single digits, so while Ulta's share was pressured, its performance improved from Q2. Kimbell acknowledged the significant impact of over 1,000 new competitive distribution points but stated that Ulta made headway in Q3 and is confident in its long-term ability to absorb the impact, though the pressure is not fully resolved.

Kelly Crago asked for more context on the flat performance of prestige makeup, including industry trends and the innovation pipeline. She also inquired about the quantifiable drag from new competitive distribution and the timeline for those headwinds to abate.

Answer

CEO Dave Kimbell stated that flat prestige makeup was an improvement, driven by new brands and strong event execution. He noted the overall category grew in the low single digits, meaning Ulta's share performance improved from Q2 but remained pressured. He acknowledged the significant impact of over 1,000 new competitive distribution points but stated that while Q3 showed progress, the company is not fully through the headwind yet.

Kelly Crago questioned Ulta's ability to maintain promotional levels below pre-COVID highs given increased competition and a value-seeking consumer. She also asked if the company is rethinking its assortment mix, particularly its reliance on widely distributed legacy brands.

Answer

CEO David Kimbell stated that while promotions have increased, he expects them to remain below 2019 levels for the year, aided by strong CRM capabilities. On assortment, he affirmed the strategy of balancing key legacy brands, which drive trust and exclusive launches, with a continuous pipeline of new and exclusive brands like ILIA and WYN BEAUTY to maintain a differentiated 'All things beauty' offering.

Kelly Crago asked for details on the Amazon partnership, specifically the product assortment strategy versus in-store offerings and if this expanded distribution impacts store growth plans. She also requested insights into the free cash flow outlook for fiscal year 2026.

Answer

CEO Daniel Heaf explained that the Amazon partnership will begin with a small assortment of evergreen products, with owned channels retaining the widest selection. CFO Eva Boratto reiterated the company's strong cash generation and consistent capital allocation priorities, stating that 2026 cash flow projections will be provided in February, with a continued focus on working capital.

Kelly Crago asked about the Amazon partnership, specifically the product assortment compared to stores and its potential impact on store growth. She also inquired about the free cash flow outlook for fiscal year 2026, seeking any potential floor.

Answer

CEO Daniel Heaf stated that the Amazon partnership will start with a small assortment of evergreen products, with careful expansion over time to attract new consumers, while owned channels will retain the widest assortment. CFO Eva Boratto reiterated that Bath & Body Works is a strong cash-generating business, with capital allocation priorities focused on investing in the business, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and returning cash to shareholders. She noted that 2026 free cash flow projections would be provided in February, with a continued focus on working capital.

Kelly Crago, on for Paul Lejuez of Citi, asked about promotional activity during the Semi-Annual Sale versus other periods, whether the company might reinvest in candle pricing to attract value-seeking consumers, and for an update on raw material cost trends.

Answer

CFO Eva Boratto stated that overall promotions were comparable for the quarter and that key raw material costs continue to stabilize or trend down slightly. President of Retail Julie Rosen added that instead of cutting prices on core candles, they are amplifying the value of the Single Wick candle to meet the needs of the value-seeking customer.

Kelly Crago followed up on the Kurt Geiger margin structure, asking about its 2024 margin, the expected margin for 2025, the outlook for 2026, and the long-term potential. She also inquired about the drivers for margin improvement, specifically SG&A synergies versus gross margin opportunities.

Answer

Ed Rosenfeld, Chairman and CEO, stated that Kurt Geiger's 2024 margin was about 9%, but for the partial period in 2025, it's expected around 6%. He deferred detailed 2026 outlook but anticipated improvement. Longer-term, the intermediate target is to reach Steve Madden's historical operating margin levels, with potential beyond, driven primarily by SG&A leverage and cost savings from the combination.

Kelly Crago asked about the fashion trends driving Steve Madden's fall performance, inventory levels in the wholesale channel, and the outlook for spring, particularly in wholesale. She also inquired about the breakdown of Q4 revenue guidance between the core business and Kurt Geiger, including the DTC contribution from Kurt Geiger and its impact on gross margins.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ed Rosenfeld highlighted strong fall performance, especially in the core Steve Madden women's shoe business, driven by boots, dress shoes, and casuals. He expressed confidence for spring. For Q4, Mr. Rosenfeld guided the core business (excluding Kurt Geiger) to be down 2-4%, with wholesale footwear and DTC positive, offset by a decline in wholesale accessories and apparel. He noted Kurt Geiger's revenue contribution at $182M-$187M, with approximately $135M from DTC, which significantly impacts gross margin.

Kelly Crago inquired about Steve Madden's accelerated production shift out of China, asking about the handling of remaining Chinese orders, the destination countries for new production, the margin profile of these new locations, and the potential impact on top-line revenue and business agility due to changing lead times.

Answer

CEO Ed Rosenfeld explained that the company is moving any production possible out of China, negotiating price concessions on goods already in process, and shifting to countries like Mexico, Brazil, Cambodia, and Vietnam. He noted that while some moves extend lead times, Mexico and Brazil offer faster turnarounds. Rosenfeld acknowledged that this shift, along with some customer cancellations due to price hikes and later deliveries, will have a revenue impact, and that margins in new sourcing countries are currently lower.

Kelly Crago, on behalf of Paul Lejuez at Citigroup Inc., asked for clarification on the tariff assumptions embedded in the 2025 guidance, specifically if it includes both China and Mexico tariffs, and requested the current sourcing percentage from Mexico.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Edward Rosenfeld confirmed that the guidance includes the impact of tariffs from both China and potentially Mexico. He stated that sourcing from Mexico represents a mid-single-digit percentage of the overall mix. The company has assumed it would shift production out of Mexico in the fall if those tariffs remain, thereby limiting the primary impact to goods already in production or transit.

Kelly Crago of Jefferies inquired about Steve Madden's sourcing exposure to China amid potential tariffs and the company's mitigation plans. She also asked for details on the wholesale footwear channel's Q3 performance and its outlook for Q4.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Edward Rosenfeld detailed a plan to reduce goods sourced from China by 40-45% over the next year, which would lower the portion of the business subject to potential tariffs from just under 50% to about 25%. He noted that while the wholesale footwear business improved sequentially from Q2, it missed the target of flat performance due to delayed boot deliveries by partners. Rosenfeld confirmed he expects further improvement in Q4.

Kelly Crago of Citigroup, on behalf of Paul Lejuez, asked for more detail on the U.S. retail strategy, including the timeline for closing 100 stores and the future of the net store count. She also questioned how the company reconciles its planned price increases for the second half of the year with the significant pricing investments made in the first half.

Answer

CEO Douglas Palladini explained that a new proprietary algorithm is guiding all store fleet decisions, including closures, relocations, and openings, with a focus on fleet segmentation. CFO Richard Westenberger clarified the 100 store closures will occur over several years as leases expire, which is expected to result in an operating income gain due to sales transfers. Regarding pricing, Westenberger stated that price increases have begun, discussions with wholesale partners are constructive, and competitors are also raising prices. CEO Palladini added that consumers are demonstrating a willingness to pay for premium products like Little Planet and Purely Soft.

Kelly Crago, on behalf of Paul Lejuez, asked for details on the U.S. retail strategy, including the net impact of closing 100 stores and the timeline for these closures. She also questioned how the company reconciles recent price investments with planned price increases and what feedback wholesale partners have provided.

Answer

CEO Douglas Palladini explained the use of a new proprietary algorithm for store fleet decisions, keeping all options open, including closures, relocations, and new openings. CFO Richard Westenberger clarified the 100 closures will occur over several years as leases expire and are expected to be accretive to operating income. He added that wholesale partners have been constructive on price increases, as tariffs are an industry-wide issue.

Kelly Crago, on for Paul Lejuez, asked for more detail on the specific product categories where the Abercrombie brand underperformed expectations in Q1 and what actions are being taken to correct this. She also asked if the Q2 sales guidance incorporates recent quarter-to-date performance.

Answer

CEO Fran Horowitz explained that the primary disappointment was not comping the spectacular launch of the wedding shop from the prior year, though dresses still sold well. She emphasized the team is now chasing emerging trends. CFO Robert Ball confirmed that May's month-to-date trends are incorporated into the Q2 sales growth outlook of 3% to 5%, noting that volume will build as the back-to-school season approaches.

Kelly Crago, on for Paul Lejuez, asked for specifics on which product categories underperformed at the Abercrombie brand in Q1 and what corrective actions are being taken. She also asked if the Q2 sales guidance incorporates quarter-to-date trends.

Answer

CEO Fran Horowitz explained the Q1 decline was driven by AUR pressure from liquidating carryover inventory and underperformance against the prior year's highly successful launch of the wedding shop. SVP & CFO Robert Ball confirmed that May's month-to-date trends are incorporated into the Q2 outlook, expressing confidence in growing on top of last year's strong results.

Asked for a breakdown of performance between healthy and underperforming stores, the extent of sales transfer from closed locations, and the current sales mix between Wax Pass and non-Wax Pass customers with the long-term target.

Answer

The executive declined to provide specific performance data for store cohorts but confirmed it's factored into guidance. Sales transfer from closures is partial and varies by location. The sales mix from Wax Pass members remains stable at ~75%, with no immediate plans to change this ratio.

Kelly Crago of Citigroup Inc. asked for clarification on the expected revenue trajectory for fiscal 2026, bridging the Q1 guide with the prior full-year outlook, and questioned if North American DTC could return to growth as promotional pullbacks are lapped.

Answer

CFO David Bergman clarified that the pre-tariff plan for fiscal 2026 implied a better second half than the first, with a full-year revenue decline expected to be more modest than in fiscal 2025. He indicated that the strategic pressures on North American DTC should be 'much more minimized' in the back half of fiscal 2026. CEO Kevin Plank added that the overarching focus remains on driving brand affection and ensuring a clean, premium presentation at retail.

Kelly Crago, on for Paul Lejuez, asked for details on the outperformance in North American full-price wholesale, plans for exiting lower-quality distribution, and whether G&A savings can offset rising marketing investments.

Answer

CFO David Bergman clarified the North American beat was primarily driven by the DTC business outperforming cautious plans amid reduced promotions. He stated the distribution strategy is focused on adding 'better and best' tier accounts rather than exiting existing ones. On SG&A, he noted that while restructuring will yield savings in late FY26 and beyond, the current focus is on reprioritizing spending to fuel the brand.

Kelly Crago, on for Paul Lejuez, asked for the percentage of the tariff impact being offset by mitigation efforts, the expected overall price increase across the assortment, and details on the incentive compensation headwind.

Answer

CFO Kristy Chipman stated that mitigation efforts are expected to offset 'north of 50%' of the tariff impact but declined to provide a specific figure to maintain confidentiality in vendor negotiations. She also noted that while a range of price increase scenarios is included in the guidance, a specific percentage would not be shared. The question on incentive compensation was deferred.

Representing Paul Lejuez, Kelly Crago asked for more specifics on the higher Q3 promotions, including whether they were concentrated in footwear or apparel and how much was a reaction to Nike's DTC activity. She also asked if the Q4 guidance implies a deceleration from current trends.

Answer

EVP and CFO Michael Baughn clarified that the higher-than-expected Q3 promotions were primarily in Europe and the apparel category. He noted the Q4 outlook anticipates these trends continuing, with added promotional pressure in North America from DTC channels. He confirmed that the quarter-to-date performance, including a soft November start and strong Thanksgiving week, formed the basis for the Q4 guidance.

Kelly Crago, on for Paul Lejuez, asked about the company's philosophy on SG&A investment, the comp needed to achieve leverage, and for more detail on the 2025 store opening plans, including the mix of House of Sport and Field House concepts.

Answer

CFO Navdeep Gupta explained the philosophy is to drive top and bottom-line growth, making strategic investments in areas like technology as opportunities arise, without giving a specific comp leverage target. He clarified that the 2025 plan includes opening approximately 15 House of Sport locations plus an additional 20 Field House locations, with the vast majority being remodels or relocations, resulting in minimal net new store count growth.

Kelly Crago, on for Paul Lejuez, asked about the assumptions behind the high and low ends of the second-half comp guidance. She also requested an update on the rollout and performance of brands like HOKA and On.

Answer

CFO Navdeep Gupta stated the second-half comp guidance range balances strong confidence in their strategy against ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. President and CEO Lauren Hobart confirmed that both HOKA and On are performing very well and that there is further opportunity to expand their distribution across the store fleet in the future.