Ken Hoexter

Ken Hoexter questioned the drivers behind the significant 26% growth in LTL volume, asking if it was price-driven, and inquired about any early signs of purchase transportation savings since the May 1 system cutover.

Answer

CEO Drew Wilkerson clarified that LTL growth was not price-driven, noting revenue per load (ex-fuel/length of haul) was flat. He attributed the share gains to providing an easy tech solution for customers' LTL pain points. Regarding the system cutover, he reported encouraging early signs, with about 20% of freight being covered by reps from the other legacy network, exceeding initial expectations.

Ken Hoexter inquired about the core RXO EBITDA shifts over the past year, the variance in Coyote's contribution versus original expectations, and recent market inflections, particularly the pullback in spot rates.

Answer

Jared Weisfeld, Chief Strategy Officer, explained the combined business's seasonality, noting Q2 and Q4 are typically strongest, and confirmed that improving buy rates have recently been a tailwind for gross profit per load. CEO Drew Wilkerson added that from a macro perspective, brokerage continues to take market share from the for-hire trucking industry, a trend he expects to continue.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America questioned if rising purchase transportation costs at Coyote were the primary driver of the Q4 gross margin decline and whether increasing buy rates signal a market turn. He also asked about the muted peak season outlook and the high/low ends of the EBITDA guidance.

Answer

CEO Drew Wilkerson confirmed that rising buy rates impacted both legacy businesses, but legacy RXO offset the pressure with spot projects, an opportunity he sees for Coyote long-term. CFO Jamie Harris stated the $40-$45 million EBITDA guidance reflects current visibility into a muted peak and softer auto volumes. Drew Wilkerson added that RXO is not seeing a shift away from trusted brokers and is well-positioned with customers.

Ken Hoexter asked about XPO's October tonnage performance, its ability to outperform seasonality, and the outlook for Q4 margins, noting XPO's continued cost controls and insourcing success.

Answer

Mario Harik (CEO, XPO) explained that October tonnage, down 3%, aligns with typical seasonality and outperformance is driven by superior service, onboarding 2,500 new local customers in Q3, and launching high-yield premium services. He expects XPO to materially outperform Q4 seasonality for OR improvement, accelerating year-over-year OR expansion and staying on track for 100 basis points of full-year OR improvement.

Ken Hoexter asked about XPO's October tonnage performance, its ability to outperform seasonality, and the outlook for Q4 margins, noting the company's continued cost controls and insourcing success.

Answer

CEO Mario Harik explained that October tonnage was expected to be down 3%, in line with typical seasonality, attributing outperformance to improved service, onboarding 2,500 new local customers in Q3, and the success of premium services like grocery consolidation. He anticipates materially outperforming Q4 seasonality for margins, expecting meaningful year-over-year OR improvement and acceleration, putting XPO on track for its full-year 100 basis points OR improvement outlook.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America inquired about the drivers behind the stronger-than-expected results in the European segment, the potential limits of insourcing purchased transportation, and the next major operational improvement levers for the company.

Answer

CEO Mario Harik explained that while purchased transportation will continue to decrease, the next major cost levers are AI-driven technology and efficiencies from new, larger breakbulk facilities. He highlighted AI's role in reducing line haul miles and improving P&D operations. Chief Strategy Officer Ali Faghri added that the European segment's strength was driven by solid performance in the U.K. and Central Europe, with EBITDA expected to outperform normal seasonality in Q3.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America inquired about the LTL pricing environment, especially for local SMB customers, and asked for clarification on the volume outlook. He also had a follow-up question regarding the slight increase in the damage claims ratio.

Answer

Executive Mario Harik described a constructive pricing environment, with XPO outperforming the market by improving service, growing accessorial revenue, and gaining share in the high-growth local channel. Chief Strategy Officer Ali Faghri clarified the volume outlook, noting easier comps in the second half could still result in negative tonnage if the macro softens. Regarding claims, Harik explained that while the ratio rounded up to 0.3%, underlying damage exceptions hit a record low, indicating continued service improvement.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America inquired about the LTL pricing environment, especially in the local SMB segment, and asked for clarification on the volume outlook and the recent increase in the damage claims ratio.

Answer

CEO Mario Harik described the pricing environment as constructive, with XPO outperforming due to service improvements, growing accessorial revenue, and success in the local SMB channel. Chief Strategy Officer Ali Faghri reiterated the volume scenarios for the margin outlook. Harik clarified that the damage claims ratio rounded up to 0.3% but underlying damage KPIs actually hit a record low in the quarter.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America inquired about the current pricing gap relative to margin potential and the underlying market trends, considering the 8% volume decline in October.

Answer

Executive Mario Harik explained that the company is closing a mid-teens pricing gap through superior service, premium offerings, and growth in local accounts. He clarified that October's volume decline was in line with seasonality, with a two-point impact attributed to a peer's cyberattack in the prior year, suggesting a normalization of demand.

Ken Hoexter asked for details on the $6 EPS potential for 2026, inquiring about the triggers to achieve it, the role of accelerating volume gains and pricing, and whether the $2.6 billion share buyback program (or specific components of it) is included in that target. He also asked about thoughts on incrementals as market conditions improve.

Answer

CFO Damon Lee clarified that the $6 EPS target for 2026 includes the existing 4.5 million share repurchase authorization, with the new $2 billion program largely impacting beyond 2026, assuming continued buybacks and some new equity issuance. He explained that maintaining current margin targets provides 'optionality' to strategically invest excess margins into AGP-accretive market share gains, though they will not pursue 'bad volume.' He noted that while Q4 and Q1 present global forwarding challenges, the full benefits of Agentic AI, crucial for the 2026 target, are expected to be realized in the second half of 2026. Senior Director of Investor Relations Chuck Ives confirmed the target assumes 120 million diluted shares outstanding.

Ken Hoexter asked for details on the $6 EPS potential for 2026, inquiring about the triggers to achieve it, the role of accelerating volume gains and pricing, and whether the $2.6 billion share buyback program (or specific components of it) is included in that target. He also asked about thoughts on incrementals as market conditions improve.

Answer

CFO Damon Lee clarified that the $6 EPS target for 2026 includes the existing 4.5 million share repurchase authorization, with the new $2 billion program largely impacting beyond 2026, assuming continued buybacks and some new equity issuance. He explained that maintaining current margin targets provides 'optionality' to strategically invest excess margins into AGP-accretive market share gains, though they will not pursue 'bad volume.' He noted that while Q4 and Q1 present global forwarding challenges, the full benefits of Agentic AI, crucial for the 2026 target, are expected to be realized in the second half of 2026. Senior Director of Investor Relations Chuck Ives confirmed the target assumes 120 million diluted shares outstanding.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America questioned the deceleration in adjusted gross profit (AGP) per day through Q1 and the reduction in CapEx guidance. He also followed up on the balance between contract and spot market pricing during bid season.

Answer

CFO Damon Lee attributed the monthly AGP trend to tougher comps and "noise," advising not to read into it. CEO David Bozeman explained the CapEx reduction was related to discretionary items, with all strategic initiatives remaining fully funded. Michael Castagnetto, President of NAST, noted that contractual rates are seeing minimal improvement while the transactional market remains highly competitive, but the company is successfully growing margins through its disciplined approach.

Ken Hoexter asked about the outlook for the Global Forwarding segment, specifically regarding rate normalization and headcount trends.

Answer

CFO Damon Lee confirmed that the company's 2026 financial targets already account for ocean rate normalization back to H2 2023 levels. Regarding personnel, he stated the Global Forwarding team successfully 'debunked the thesis' that headcount must grow with volume, achieving significant productivity gains in 2024. This decoupling of headcount from volume growth is a practice they intend to continue.

Ken Hoexter asked how a spot market inflection would affect the business under the new operating model and whether the company could react more quickly. He also inquired if there were any current signs of firming between rates and costs.

Answer

Michael Zechmeister, President of NAST, confirmed the new model enables a faster, more effective response to market inflections but stated there are currently no signs of a turn, as route guides are performing well. CEO Dave Bozeman emphasized that the operating model's discipline benefits all divisions, including Global Forwarding, and positions NAST well for any future market shifts.

Ken Hoexter asked about the performance of the KCS network versus CP, what remains to bring KCS to CP operating levels, achieved cost synergies, and whether political pressure could accelerate the M&A process.

Answer

President and CEO Keith E. Creel stated the M&A review will take the full 16-17 months. EVP and COO Mark Redd highlighted operating system integration, union bargaining, and leveraging CapEx/crew districts on KCS. EVP and CFO Nadeem Velani reported $165 million in year-to-date expense synergies from operational benefits, sourcing, and a reduction of almost 300 G&A headcount across the combined entity.

Ken Hoexter asked Mark Redd about remaining steps to bring the KCS network to CP operating levels, Nadeem Velani about cost synergies achieved, and Keith Creel about the potential for political pressure to accelerate the M&A process.

Answer

President and CEO Keith Creel stated that a thorough M&A review would take the full 16-17 months, emphasizing the STB's commitment to a serious timeline. EVP and COO Mark Redd outlined steps for KCS operations: leveraging the integrated operating system, bargaining with unions to streamline crew districts, and optimizing CapEx (sidings, locomotives) and crew management. EVP and CFO Nadeem Velani reported CAD 165 million in synergies achieved year-to-date, primarily from operational benefits, sourcing, and G&A headcount reduction, exceeding initial expectations.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America sought clarification on whether CPKC is now primarily focused on fighting the UP-NS merger for concessions versus participating in M&A, and asked about the expected Q2 to Q3 operating ratio improvement.

Answer

CEO Keith Creel responded that CPKC will 'consider all scenarios, except for one,' to meet its fiduciary duty to create value, suggesting an open but selective strategic posture. EVP & CFO Nadeem Velani clarified that the Q2 systems integration did not significantly affect the OR, but that Q3 should see the best year-over-year OR improvement, with continued gains into Q4 to achieve the sub-60% OR target for the year.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked if the Q2 OR improvement could outpace normal seasonality given Q1 weather, and also inquired about pricing strength, particularly in bulk commodities.

Answer

EVP & CFO Nadeem Velani suggested a 200-250 basis point sequential OR improvement is a realistic expectation. EVP & CMO John Brooks added that pricing remains strong, with renewals at 4-5% plus. He noted they successfully repriced legacy KCS contracts and expect to exceed the 3-4% pricing guidance, supported by a recent 3.1% BR CPI for the next crop year.

Ken Hoexter asked about the expected cost normalization from Q4 to Q1 and whether the 12-18% EPS growth guidance already includes the impact of a share buyback.

Answer

EVP and CFO Nadeem Velani confirmed the 12-18% EPS growth range does include a modest benefit from a potential share buyback, with the exact impact depending on timing. For the sequential outlook, he advised that a typical 300-400 basis point increase in the operating ratio from Q4 to Q1 should be expected, accounting for normal seasonality and the reversal of a stock-based compensation benefit that was a tailwind in Q4.

Ken Hoexter requested clarification on the components of the 300 basis point operating ratio headwind in Q3 and asked for thoughts on the potential impact of new tariffs following a possible U.S. administration change.

Answer

EVP and CFO Nadeem Velani clarified that the 300 basis point year-over-year headwind consisted of a 100 basis point impact from the work stoppage, plus the combined effect of higher stock-based compensation and a $50 million year-over-year increase in derailment costs. On tariffs, EVP and CMO John Brooks stated it's a 'wait and see' situation but expressed confidence that North American commerce is vital regardless of the administration, referencing the creation of the USMCA as a positive outcome from the previous administration.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America Merrill Lynch sought clarification on whether demand is truly consistent despite an 11.5% October volume decline against an easy prior-year comparison, asking if anything rapidly worsened. He also inquired about the impact of decreasing weight per shipment and directly questioned if Old Dominion Freight Line has changed its pricing strategy.

Answer

Adam Satterfield, CFO, reiterated that Old Dominion Freight Line has made no change to its pricing approach, citing consistent yield trends. He clarified that October's tonnage decline, while significant, represents a "similar underperformance" relative to seasonality rather than a rapid worsening, with demand feeling consistent. He noted that weight per shipment is down 2.3% in October, reflecting weaker orders, and attributed overall demand weakness to factors like the ISM, housing market, and mode shifts.

Ken Hoexter sought clarification on whether October demand was consistent or rapidly worsening, citing conflicting reports, and asked about the decrease in weight per shipment and any changes in Old Dominion Freight Line's pricing aggressiveness.

Answer

Adam Satterfield, CFO, reiterated that demand feels consistent from a macro and customer perspective, with October's tonnage underperformance relative to seasonality being similar to prior quarters, not a rapid worsening. He confirmed no change in pricing approach and noted that weight per shipment was down about 2.3% in October, indicative of the weaker macroeconomic environment.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America Corporation asked for a broader view of the market backdrop, citing decelerating yields versus history and confusion over market share commentary, questioning if share was being lost only to private carriers.

Answer

EVP & CFO Adam Satterfield clarified that the expected Q3 yield represents a sequential increase consistent with pre-COVID averages and that industry pricing remains disciplined. Regarding market share, he acknowledged post-Yellow choppiness but reiterated that based on Transport Topics data, ODFL's overall share has remained relatively consistent.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked for clarity on the market backdrop, questioning the decelerating yield growth and the commentary on holding share when public peers reported stronger gains.

Answer

EVP & CFO Adam Satterfield clarified that the projected Q3 yield growth of 4.0-4.5% represents a sequential increase and is consistent with pre-COVID historical trends. Regarding market share, he noted the data has been choppy since the Yellow shutdown but reiterated that based on broader industry data including private carriers, their share has remained relatively consistent.

Ken Hoexter sought clarification on the drivers of accelerating revenue per hundredweight and whether the April tonnage decline was due to holiday timing or a fundamental deceleration.

Answer

CFO Adam Satterfield attributed the higher revenue per hundredweight metric in April to a lower average weight per shipment, which optically boosts the yield. He cautioned against reading too much into the daily April metrics due to the Good Friday holiday distortion but noted the overall revenue trend for the month was projected to be down approximately 6%.

Ken Hoexter asked what was driving the projected acceleration in revenue per hundredweight and questioned if April's tonnage data signaled a deceleration beyond holiday timing effects.

Answer

CFO Adam Satterfield explained that the higher revenue per hundredweight projection is receiving an 'optical' boost from a lower average weight per shipment in April. He stressed that the Good Friday holiday significantly skewed the monthly data and advised focusing on the broader revenue trend for the quarter.

Ken Hoexter questioned if the market was decelerating given volume declines, asked about market share dynamics, and sought clarification on the Q1 operating ratio guidance.

Answer

CFO Adam Satterfield clarified the favorable Q1 OR guidance (flat to up 50 bps) is due to an anticipated normalization in insurance costs. Regarding market share, he stated that based on broad industry data, ODFL maintained its share in 2023 and 2024, which is their primary goal during economic downturns, positioning them for outsized gains in an expansion.

Ken Hoexter asked if Old Dominion is considering actions to cut fixed costs or shed excess capacity and sought clarification on the Q4 operating ratio guidance.

Answer

CFO Adam Satterfield confirmed the Q4 sequential OR deterioration guidance of 300-350 basis points. He explained that while they manage discretionary spending tightly, they will not cut essential network capacity, as they are focused on the long-term growth opportunity and the significant operating leverage that will materialize when revenue growth returns.

Ken Hoexter asked about the stability and growth prospects of the power generation business, including equipment access, customer diversification, and expected sequential growth, and also inquired about the drivers for inland contract rates, the status of the petrochemical market, and the company's fleet expectations.

Answer

David Grzebinski, Kirby's Chief Executive Officer, reiterated that inland remains a strong earnings contributor with years left in its cycle. He explained that the power generation business has a huge pipeline with a growing customer portfolio, benefiting from service capabilities and EFRAC experience in power distribution units. He projected 10-20% full-year growth for power generation, with quarterly lumpiness due to OEM engine deliveries. Christian O’Neil, Kirby's President and Chief Operating Officer, noted that the inland market has stabilized, with chemical market improvement and a shift to heavier crude slates being key drivers, and confirmed the inland fleet is stable at approximately 1,100 barges and in excellent condition.

Ken Hoexter noted the increasing importance of non-inland businesses and asked for more insight into the stability and growth drivers of power generation, including equipment availability, customer base, and sequential growth expectations. He also questioned the flat inland contract rates, the outlook for Q4 renewals, the petrochemical market's influence, and the status of Kirby's inland fleet.

Answer

David Grzebinski (President and CEO) emphasized inland's continued strength and long cycle, while detailing power generation's growing customer portfolio beyond hyperscalers, its service advantages, and the contribution of EFRAC-developed microgrids and power distribution units. He projected 10-20% full-year growth for power gen, with quarterly lumpiness. Christian O’Neil (President and COO) stated the inland market has stabilized, with optimism for Q4 renewals driven by chemical market improvements and a shift to heavier crude slates. He confirmed the inland fleet is in excellent, stable condition at around 1,100 barges.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America sought clarification on the shift to the lower end of the annual guidance, asking about July demand trends and the potential for coastal marine margins to surpass inland margins if current market dynamics persist.

Answer

CEO David Grzebinski explained the guidance adjustment reflects caution due to current muted chemical demand, but noted a recovery could quickly change the outlook. He highlighted that the coastal segment is less exposed to petrochemicals, supporting its strong margin performance. COO Christian O’Neil added that he felt more optimistic about late July demand versus early July.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America asked for clarification on the full-year EPS growth target, which was not explicitly mentioned in the prepared remarks. He also inquired about the impact of weather, asking if an improvement in delay days would free up excess capacity and pressure yields, and sought details on the M&A process for the recent barge acquisition.

Answer

CEO David W. Grzebinski explicitly reaffirmed the company's full-year EPS growth guidance. President and COO Christian O'Neil explained that while winter weather artificially tightens the market, improved weather actually increases profitability and effective capacity as trip times accelerate, which is a net positive. Regarding M&A, Christian O'Neil noted that Kirby is a logical strategic acquirer and tends to see most opportunities, while David Grzebinski reiterated that the M&A environment is currently more constructive.

Ken Hoexter asked about the drivers of the coastal segment's margin improvement and its future potential, while also seeking more detail on the outlook for inland contract renewals and the potential impact of political changes on demand.

Answer

CEO David W. Grzebinski and COO Christian O'Neil responded. Grzebinski clarified that coastal margins would pull back from mid-teens to mid-to-high single digits in Q4 due to planned shipyards but projected a 300 basis point improvement for the full year 2025. O'Neil emphasized extremely strong coastal fundamentals, with the fleet 100% termed up, no newbuilds expected until 2028, and term rate increases of 25-28% year-over-year. Regarding inland, they confirmed renewals are going very well and will benefit 2025 results.

Ken Hoexter inquired about the significant sequential improvement in domestic margins from Q3 to Q4, asking if cost-cutting benefits could accelerate beyond normal trends into 2026, and sought initial thoughts on the potential impact of Supreme Court hearings on tariffs, specifically regarding de minimis.

Answer

Brian Dykes, CFO, attributed the sequential margin improvement to an expected 20% step-up in U.S. peak ADV, strong holiday demand surcharges, and enhanced efficiency from 42 new automation projects deployed by peak. He explained that reduced total U.S. network volume allows for more efficient operations with less variable capacity. Carol Tomé, CEO, stated that UPS is closely watching the Supreme Court hearings on tariffs but is not in a position to speculate on the outcome.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America sought clarification on whether the Amazon volume glide down was on target and expressed surprise about the cost issues with the Groundsaver product so soon after insourcing it, questioning the path to double-digit margins.

Answer

CEO Carol Tomé clarified that the Amazon volume reduction was slightly lighter in Q2 because UPS retained some desirable, higher-quality volume, but the full-year plan remains on track. On Groundsaver, she acknowledged that the delivery density algorithm used for planning did not hold, resulting in about $85 million in unexpected costs. She stated they are working on operational fixes and are re-engaging with the USPS. CFO Brian Dykes distinguished this issue from the successful USPS air cargo contract.

Ken Hoexter asked about the impact of de minimis rule changes, the potential for a volume snapback after inventory drawdowns, and sought clarification that the U.S. segment was the primary driver of guidance uncertainty.

Answer

CEO Carol Tomé confirmed the de minimis change will impact SMBs but stated UPS is well-positioned for customs clearance. CFO Brian Dykes affirmed that uncertainty around the U.S. consumer is the main driver of the guidance change, as international has offsetting trade flows. Executive Kathleen Gutmann provided examples of non-China export growth, supporting the idea that volume will shift rather than disappear.

Ken Hoexter inquired about the impact of de minimis rule changes and whether the current inventory drawdown by shippers could lead to a volume snapback once tariff issues are resolved.

Answer

CEO Carol Tomé stated UPS is well-positioned to handle de minimis changes with its automated customs clearance. CFO Brian Dykes noted that a potential snapback is one of several scenarios dependent on tariff timing and levels. Kathleen Gutmann, EVP, provided examples of trade already shifting to other regions like Mexico and South Korea, mitigating some of the China-specific impact.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked for the full-year 2024 revenue contribution from Amazon and questioned if reducing their volume would spur greater competition from Amazon in specialized services like returns.

Answer

CEO Carol Tomé stated that Amazon accounted for 11.8% of total 2024 revenue. She clarified that the decision to reduce volume was initiated by UPS to control its destiny and that Amazon will remain a customer for services that are a 'win-win,' such as returns, where UPS's 5,200 store locations provide a key advantage. She does not anticipate changes in the competitive environment as a result of this move. EVP and President, U.S. Nando Cesarone added that network reconfiguration plans will be detailed in Q1 after stakeholder discussions.

On behalf of Ken Hoexter, an analyst asked for an update on the scope of the 'Fit to Serve' initiative, which was previously announced to reduce 12,000 positions.

Answer

CFO Brian Dykes confirmed that UPS has pulled forward savings from the program and has already hit the full expected run rate, with some incremental benefit still to come in Q4. CEO Carol Tomé added that the company is continuously looking for new productivity opportunities, describing UPS as an 'opportunity-rich company'.

Ken Hoexter welcomed Steve Angel and asked about his initial focus at CSX, specifically what he sees needing change in culture or operations, given current strong service and cost improvements.

Answer

Steve Angel, President and CEO, emphasized building a high-performance culture starting with stability, then focusing on continuous improvement across all profitability levers: efficiency, productivity, price yield, volume, and capital efficiency.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America asked about the state of the consumer and intermodal demand. He also sought clarification on the Howard Street Tunnel project timeline, questioning if the 2026 date for double-stack capability represented a delay.

Answer

EVP & CCO Kevin Boone clarified the Howard Street Tunnel will reopen for standard traffic in Q4 2025, with double-stack service launching in 2026 after necessary bridge clearance work is completed. He noted that while consumer markets like auto and housing are soft, CSX is proactively pursuing truck-to-rail conversions.

Ken Hoexter questioned the positive full-year volume outlook, asking if near-term industrial activity could offset potential tariff-related declines. He also asked if reported on-time performance metrics were adjusted for construction projects.

Answer

EVP and COO Michael Cory confirmed that service metrics were not adjusted and reflect actual performance. CEO Joseph Hinrichs addressed volume by highlighting positive signs in steel and auto production due to tariffs, along with strong underlying demand in coal, grain, and aggregates, which could support the growth outlook.

Ken Hoexter asked for clarification on coal RPU guidance and mine outages, and then questioned if the base case for 2025 EBIT is a roughly $50 million decline from 2024's adjusted result based on the numbers provided.

Answer

EVP and CCO Kevin Boone confirmed the coal RPU guidance was based on current price levels and that the recent mine fire was included in the outage commentary. EVP and CFO Sean Pelkey stated that while the math was precise, it was too early to give a close range. He generally confirmed the logic but added that coal challenges and higher incentive comp could add another $30-$40 million of expense, creating a range of outcomes.

Ken Hoexter asked about the stability of export coal demand and how to reconcile management's positive service commentary with the reported erosion in on-time performance metrics.

Answer

CCO Kevin Boone expressed optimism for long-term export coal price stability due to a lack of new global supply. COO Michael Cory addressed service metrics, explaining that while on-time performance was impacted by weather, the key internal focus is on the Customer Schedule Departure (CSD) metric, which reflects first- and last-mile service and remained a priority.

Ken Hoexter asked Nick Hobbs if the recent rise in spot rates was driven by capacity removal due to ELP and B-1 visa enforcement. He also asked Shelley Simpson or Darren Field about potential rail mergers, specifically if J.B. Hunt had conversations with Union Pacific or Norfolk Southern regarding sustaining access ahead of any filings.

Answer

COO and President of Highway and Final Mile Services Nick Hobbs confirmed that enforcement activity (non-domicile, cabotage, fear factors) is driving recent spot rate increases in 8-10 markets, tightening capacity. President of Intermodal Darren Field declined to discuss specific rail conversations but clarified that a future merger would not necessarily require J.B. Hunt to move traffic from Norfolk Southern to CSX, emphasizing their intent to work with all railroads for optimal customer solutions.

Ken Hoexter asked if the recent enforcement activities related to English language proficiency (ELP) and B-1 visas were already causing spot rates to rise due to capacity removal, rather than demand. He also questioned Shelley Simpson or Darren Field about any conversations J.B. Hunt had with Union Pacific or Norfolk Southern regarding sustained access in light of potential rail mergers, ahead of any official filings.

Answer

COO Nick Hobbs confirmed that recent spot rate increases were indeed due to enforcement activity, leading to tightness in specific markets, but J.B. Hunt is prepared to secure capacity. President of Intermodal Darren Field declined to discuss specific rail conversations but emphasized that any future rail merger would not necessarily require J.B. Hunt to shift traffic from Norfolk Southern, reiterating the company's commitment to providing optimal intermodal solutions for customers across all rail providers.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked for an assessment of the current market backdrop, noting the shift to declining Transcon volumes and rising Eastern volumes, and questioned how the earlier peak season surcharge might impact yields.

Answer

Darren Field, President of Intermodal, stated that Transcon flows changed during Q2, prompting a proactive approach. The earlier surcharge ensures preparedness for a potential surge and that associated costs are borne by customers driving that demand. He emphasized that if a surge doesn't happen, customers don't pay the surcharge, and the company is ready for an uptick in demand.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America asked about the contrast between record Intermodal volumes and low margins, questioning if the company was pushing hard enough on price, and also requested commentary on historical Q1 to Q2 margin seasonality.

Answer

Darren Field, President of Intermodal, explained that margins are impacted by contracts from last year's pricing cycle, growth in the lower revenue-per-load Eastern network, and equipment costs. CFO John Kuhlow declined to comment on historical margin seasonality, citing the company's policy of not providing forward-looking guidance.

Ken Hoexter contrasted the weak Q1 outlook with commentary about the freight recession ending, asking about Intermodal container utilization, the amount of parked capacity, and the potential for scalability.

Answer

CEO Shelley Simpson clarified that the Q1 outlook reflects pricing from the prior bid season, while current record volumes position them for future success. Darren Field, President of Intermodal, added that while historical peak utilization rates are unlikely due to slower rail networks, there is significant room for improvement as they grow into their excess capacity.

Ken Hoexter asked for an estimate of how much Q3 Intermodal results were aided by pulled-forward shipments and whether current strength is from post-hurricane catch-up, strike fears, or normal peak season.

Answer

Darren Field, President of Intermodal, described the situation as a "mixed bag," with some pull-forward due to West Coast shifts and East Coast strike fears, but noted many customers still anticipate a normal peak. Spencer Frazier, EVP of Sales and Marketing, added that the East Coast port labor deadline extension to January will likely cause customers to rerun their contingency plans.

Ken Hoexter inquired why incremental operating gains were not keeping pace with revenue growth, seeking clarification on the $1 billion cost and $300 million trade expense headwinds.

Answer

EVP & CFO John Dietrich and President & CEO Raj Subramaniam confirmed that a significant $1 billion headwind from environmental impacts, including the de minimis exemption removal, is pressuring incremental margins. Raj Subramaniam noted that while it's a challenge for FY26, the underlying business is strong for FY27 and beyond.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked about potential initial volume loss or added costs from accelerating Network 2.0 and how the cost structure is adjusted for lower-yield economy products.

Answer

President and CEO Rajesh Subramaniam confirmed the Network 2.0 rollout is proceeding well without issues. EVP and CFO John Dietrich added it is staying within budget. EVP and CCO Brie Carere explained that the economy cost structure is lowered through multiple levers, including using surface transport, off-cycle sorting, and building denser loads.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America inquired about the peak season performance, seeking more color on volume trends and the ability to capture pricing, particularly for the Ground and Express segments.

Answer

EVP and Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere stated that December volumes were running ahead of forecast and that peak surcharge revenue is expected to be up year-over-year. However, she cautioned that this strength is not expected to carry through the second half of the fiscal year. Carere anticipates revenue improvement will come from domestic ground volumes, while international volumes may see some softening in Asia.

Ken Hoexter sought clarification on the margin outlook, asking if economy services are a negative-margin business, whether the European savings target implies breakeven, and what the net earnings flow-through will be post-DRIVE but pre-Network 2.0.

Answer

EVP and CFO John Dietrich clarified he guided for sequential, not year-over-year, Q2 profit improvement. He stated that for the full year, FedEx Freight margins are expected to be down while Federal Express margins are expected to be up. President and CEO Raj Subramaniam added that initiatives like Network 2.0, Europe improvements, and Tricolor are all accretive and will drive profit expansion beyond the current DRIVE program.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America inquired about the ongoing restructuring of the Land segment, asking about the potential for further asset sales and the nature of the 'ratable' businesses being prioritized. He also requested a Q3 outlook for the Aviation, Marine, and Land segments, specifically questioning the drivers behind government activity and profit trends.

Answer

President and CFO Ira Birns confirmed more restructuring is planned for the Land segment to optimize assets and exit underperforming activities, noting that while Q3 gross profit will be down due to divestitures, operating income should remain stable year-over-year. Chairman and CEO Michael Kasbar added that the focus is on shedding subscale wholesale and logistics activities to create a 'hyper-focused' business. Kasbar described Aviation as a key strength driven by its global platform, Marine as a solid spot business, and Land as being refocused on core U.S. markets.

Ken Hoexter inquired about the financial impact of the U.K. land business divestiture, including volume reduction, profitability, and cash proceeds, and also asked about the key drivers behind the strong gross profit performance in the aviation segment.

Answer

EVP and CFO Ira Birns explained that the U.K. land business sale is accretive as the unit was operating at a loss. He stated the business represented about 375 million gallons in 2024 volume and the sale generated approximately $50 million in cash, which will initially repay debt. For aviation, Birns attributed the strong profitability to excellent performance in European on-airport operations, an improved product mix including sustainable fuels, and strength in the general aviation business.

Ken Hoexter inquired about the specifics of the Brazil sale and North American business divestitures, including their scale and potential for further portfolio refinement. He also asked about the recent volatility in the Marine segment's gross profit per metric ton and the key drivers behind the Aviation segment's volume growth.

Answer

EVP and CFO Ira Birns explained that the divested Brazil business was small, generated near-zero gross profit but had operating expenses, making its sale immediately accretive. He noted similar small-scale, efficiency-driven exits in North America, with a few more opportunities remaining. On the Marine segment, Birns attributed margin fluctuations to changes in bunker fuel pricing and market volatility, noting the team has managed well in the current environment. He also confirmed that the Aviation segment's volume growth was primarily driven by a recovery in commercial passenger activity in Europe and Asia. Chairman and CEO Michael J. Kasbar added that the company's go-forward strategy for the Land segment is focused on the large and strategic U.S. market.

Ken Hoexter asked about the potential for monetizing other business units following the Avinode sale, whether the current freight recession is creating more M&A opportunities, and for more detail on the factors impacting the land segment's performance.

Answer

Executive Ira Birns explained that while another Avinode-level sale is unlikely, the company is exploring opportunities to divest non-core assets to reallocate capital. He confirmed that the M&A pipeline is growing as interest rates stabilize and the company's integration capabilities have improved. Regarding the land segment, Birns noted that while the natural gas market stabilized from Q2, persistent weakness in Brazil and parts of the North American fuels business still impacted year-over-year results, though there was sequential improvement.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked about typical Q2 to Q3 truckload margin seasonality, the reasons for the deceleration in dedicated revenue per truck, and the outlook for the network fleet size.

Answer

CEO Mark Rourke explained that historically, Q3 truckload margins can be better or worse than Q2, and that the company's focus is on improving efficiency, such as the driver-to-truck ratio, which impacts revenue per truck metrics. EVP Jim Filter noted that network capacity is seeing growth from owner-operators, aided by a new app, and from opportunistic hiring of company drivers to gain leverage on cost initiatives.

Ken Hoexter asked for more color on near-term seasonality and the factors that would lead to the bear case of the updated guidance range. He also questioned how Schneider views its Intermodal fleet capacity and utilization in light of industry overcapacity.

Answer

CEO Mark Rourke explained the guidance range reflects uncertainty around the timing, magnitude, and duration of potential trade and consumer impacts, with the lower end reflecting a more significant 'air pocket' in demand. Regarding Intermodal capacity, EVP & Group President Jim Filter stated they see an opportunity to grow volume up to 35% by improving container turns and efficiency without adding equipment. CEO Mark Rourke emphasized that leaning into their differentiation with rail partners (UP, CSX, CPKC) is key to improving margins, not just eliminating boxes.

Ken Hoexter asked about typical Q4 to Q1 seasonality in margins and inquired about the intermodal cross-border opportunity with CPKC, particularly its growth and sustainability.

Answer

CFO Darrell Campbell noted a return to seasonality, implying a normal sequential decline from Q4 to Q1. EVP and Group President Jim Filter highlighted strong, ongoing Mexico intermodal growth into Q1, driven by market share gains with partner CPKC. CEO Mark Rourke added that the new Southeast-to-Mexico service provides a significant conversion opportunity from over-the-road freight.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America Corporation questioned the market dichotomy where Schneider is achieving its best rate improvements in years, yet the network business is deemed 'not investable.' He also asked whether truckload or intermodal markets typically show signs of tightening first.

Answer

CEO Mark Rourke acknowledged that while contract renewals are positive, more progress is needed for full margin recovery and reinvestment. He emphasized that the sustainability of recent spot rate improvements through Q4 is key. EVP Jim Filter explained that as the market tightens, the comparison between intermodal contract rates and truck spot prices shifts, and historically, truck pricing tends to move before intermodal pricing does.

Tim Chang, on behalf of Ken Hoexter of Bank of America, asked about the timing of the expected tanker rate uplift from OPEC+ production increases, questioning if the impact would be concentrated in the fourth quarter. He also asked for an explanation of the material increase in 'other revenue' and its expected run rate going forward.

Answer

Christian Waldegrave, Director of Research, explained that a combination of increased oil volumes from OPEC+ and the Americas, normal winter seasonality, and geopolitical complexities are expected to create more volatility and stronger rates in the latter part of the year. Subsequently, Brody Speers, CFO, clarified that 'other revenue' was higher due to a one-time $6 million charge for an FPSO contract restructuring, which is not indicative of the future run rate.

Asked about the sustainability of current rate strength, the potential impact of geopolitical de-escalation on trade routes, the risk of the newbuild order book pressuring rates, and the potential for oil inventory restocking to support the market.

Answer

Executives explained that current rate strength is driven by low oil prices and inventory levels, which could provide counter-seasonal support through the summer. They acknowledged geopolitical risks but highlighted that the large number of aging vessels provides a significant "release valve" through scrapping that should rebalance the market if rates fall, mitigating pressure from the order book. The restocking of oil inventories is expected to support demand in the near term.

Ken Hoexter inquired about the sustainability of current tanker rate strength given geopolitical factors and asked why the growing order book shouldn't be expected to pressure rates, despite the aging fleet.

Answer

Executive Kenneth Hvid explained that current strength is supported by low oil prices and inventories. He addressed fleet supply concerns by highlighting that today's historically old fleet provides a large pool of scrap candidates, which will act as a 'release valve' to rebalance the market if rates fall, a key difference from the young fleet during the 2008 cycle. Director of Research Christian Waldegrave added that inventory restocking could provide counter-seasonal strength through the summer.

Ken Hoexter inquired about the sustainability of the current strength in tanker rates, potential impacts from geopolitical resolutions, and the risk of the vessel order book putting pressure on rates. He also asked for quantification on how much oil inventory restocking could absorb fleet capacity.

Answer

Executive Kenneth Hvid attributed current rate strength to low oil prices and inventory levels, creating strong demand. On fleet supply, he noted that the aging fleet, with a large number of vessels over 20 years old, represents a 'big valve' that will likely be scrapped when the market corrects, providing a rebalancing mechanism. Director of Research Christian Waldegrave added that while hard to quantify, low inventories and expected oil oversupply should drive restocking, providing counter-seasonal rate support through the summer.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America questioned the knock-on effects of the TMX pipeline on other trade routes, the recent relative softness in Aframax rates, and the company's stance on fleet renewal via newbuilds versus secondhand vessels given high asset prices.

Answer

President and CEO Kevin Mackay confirmed TMX could have positive knock-on effects by displacing long-haul barrels to other routes. He advised against over-interpreting short-term rate fluctuations, stating the market will react once TMX volumes materialize. On fleet renewal, he indicated a preference for the secondhand market for prompt vessel delivery to capitalize on current strong rates, rather than ordering newbuilds at today's high prices.

Asked about the potential knock-on effects of the TMX pipeline on other trade routes, the recent relative softness in Aframax rates, and the company's strategy for fleet renewal given high vessel prices.

Answer

The company confirmed TMX will have knock-on effects by displacing other crude flows. They advised not to read into minor short-term rate fluctuations, as the market will react to TMX volumes only when they materialize. For fleet renewal, they are currently favoring prompt secondhand vessel purchases over newbuilds to immediately capitalize on the strong spot market.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America questioned the tonnage trends, noting a slowdown in June and flat results in July despite easy comps. He asked about the mix of dynamic versus core freight and why margins were not outperforming given the volume and yield commentary.

Answer

CFO Matt Beasley explained that Q2 volume strength was concentrated in April and May, with June impacted by seasonality and softness in U-Pack. President & CEO-Elect Seth Runser reiterated that core LTL is the majority of the business and the dynamic freight strategy is consistent. Beasley added that margins were impacted by a mix shift, as softness in the higher-yielding manufacturing vertical offset gains from new business.

Ken Hoexter challenged the 'rational pricing' narrative by pointing to negative pricing data in April and from peers, and asked about the drivers of the 50% increase in revenue per shipment for dynamic business.

Answer

President Seth Runser clarified the April revenue per hundredweight decline was less than 1% excluding fuel and was driven by a mix shift to more operationally efficient freight. He also noted a difficult year-over-year comparison from Q2 2024. He stated the growing pool of digital quotes allows for more profit-optimal shipment selection, contributing to strong dynamic pricing.

Ken Hoexter asked if the real estate CapEx includes bids on remaining Yellow terminals and requested a breakdown of the 11% January volume decline between weather and underlying market weakness, noting the commentary sounded more negative than peers.

Answer

CFO Matt Beasley clarified the real estate capital is a mix of expansion, a new service center, and general maintenance, but confirmed ArcBest will look to participate in the Yellow auction process for opportunities that make sense at the right price. Regarding January, he reiterated it had the highest number of service center closures since 2014 due to weather, which impacted results, but did not attribute a specific percentage of the decline to it.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America questioned the significant decline in weight per shipment compared to peers and historical levels, asking if it was purely economic or a freight mix change, and also inquired about the transactional versus core business mix.

Answer

President Seth Runser stated there was no structural change, attributing the decline to macro impacts and an unusual year-over-year comparison in October. He confirmed the majority of business is core, with transactional freight used to fill network capacity. CFO Matt Beasley added that high customer retention with smaller shipment sizes is also a factor.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked about the drivers behind improving utilization and deadhead, its implications for third-quarter TTS margins, and whether the increase in fleet age was a deliberate strategic shift.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Derek Leathers attributed utilization gains to structural and engineered network changes, though Q2 was slightly impacted by shifting drivers to new Dedicated fleets. CFO Chris Wikoff and Leathers guided toward modest sequential margin improvement in Q3 but cautioned against expecting a repeat of the large Q1-to-Q2 jump. Leathers clarified the slightly older fleet age is not a capital trade-off but a prudent, flexible response to tariff and regulatory uncertainty.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America questioned the sequential decline in Dedicated tractors despite high renewal rates and sought commentary on recent spot rate softness after a run-up early in the year.

Answer

CEO Derek Leathers advised not to over-read the end-of-period truck count, attributing it to the timing of temporary peak season trucks. He expressed a more positive view on spot rates, stating that external events are now impacting a market closer to equilibrium. He also reiterated that Werner's total Mexico exposure across all modes is north of 10% of total revenue.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America questioned the drivers behind the significant sequential decline in the Q3 outlook, asking which segments were expected to weaken. He also asked for a big-picture view on the freight cycle, capacity, and tonnage trends.

Answer

CFO David Saperstein attributed the Q3 outlook to normal seasonality, potential margin compression in Truckload and Logistics, and uncertainty around freight flows post-tariff volatility. Alain Bedard, President, CEO & Chairman, stated that after years of volume decline, he expects tonnage to stabilize in the coming quarters as service improves, noting the focus is on service quality before volume growth.

Ken Hoexter questioned the rapid changes in the LTL segment, pointing to a significant drop in length of haul, an increase in the truck count, and an $8 million charge, and also asked about the implications of the planned re-domiciliation to the U.S.

Answer

Executive Alain Bedard clarified that the increase in truck count reflects new vehicle acquisitions while older ones await sale, and the 'active' fleet size is stable. He attributed LTL performance issues to poor results from the GFP program, rising personnel costs, a negative revenue mix, and unacceptably high claims and accident costs. Regarding the re-domicile, Bedard described it as a natural evolution of the business, driven by a growing U.S. shareholder base and operational presence, with no plans to physically move head office personnel.

Ken Hoexter returned to seek clarification on the specific number for the full-year EPS guidance. He also asked what provides confidence in a Q4 U.S. LTL OR improvement, given the ongoing concerns about pricing and service.

Answer

CEO Alain Bedard clarified the guidance implies full-year 2024 EPS will be around $6.18-$6.20, similar to 2023. He explained that confidence in Q4 OR improvement stems from internal cost controls, not market factors. Specifically, he expects better results from managing claims costs and labor costs per shipment, which were on the right track before being temporarily disrupted by storms in early October.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked about Saia's Q3 volume and pricing outlook, questioning if volumes could turn positive and if strong renewals would continue to drive pricing. He also sought guidance on the operating ratio (OR) compared to normal Q2-to-Q3 seasonality.

Answer

EVP & CFO Matthew Batteh explained that tonnage comps get tougher in Q3 due to lapping prior year terminal openings and that the company remains focused on pricing for expected returns. He guided for the Q3 OR to degrade by about 100 basis points sequentially, outperforming the historical 100-200 bps range. President & CEO Frederick Holzgrefe attributed this to Q2 network optimization efforts and better matching costs to volume in the now-national network.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America pressed on pricing, noting management's comment that 'customers have choices' and asked if this signals the start of a price war, given industry overcapacity. He also requested service level metrics and an explanation for taking on more debt after the main CapEx program was done.

Answer

Executive Matthew Batteh clarified that 'customers have choices' refers to shippers trying different solutions, like regional carriers, not competitors cutting rates. He reiterated that the industry's inflationary fundamentals remain. He reported the claims ratio was 0.50% for the quarter. Regarding debt, he explained that the timing of a large volume of equipment deliveries in Q1 drove the need to draw on the revolver.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America requested updates on on-time performance and claims ratio, an explanation for a spike in 'other revenue,' and the company's long-term targets for purchased transportation (PT) as a percentage of miles.

Answer

Executive Matthew Batteh reported a Q4 claims ratio of 0.59% and explained that the 'other revenue' line includes various items like the asset-light business and GAAP adjustments. CEO Fritz Holzgrefe stated on-time service is comparable to best-in-class peers at over 98%. Regarding PT, he clarified there is no specific target; it is used as a flexible tool to meet customer needs and help achieve the ultimate goal of a sub-80% operating ratio.

Ken Hoexter of BofA Securities inquired about Saia's sequential growth trends in October, specifically regarding tonnage and weight per shipment. He also asked for clarification on a potential one-time workers' compensation expense and the stability of the industrial market.

Answer

Executive Matthew Batteh provided October-to-date figures, with shipments up approximately 4% and tonnage up 6.5%, cautioning about unusual year-over-year comparisons. He clarified that there was no one-time workers' compensation event, just normal claims development. CEO Fritz Holzgrefe added that the industrial market backdrop felt comparable to the previous quarter, neither markedly better nor worse.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked about the ultimate potential for operating ratio efficiency, sought clarification on whether the EPS growth guidance applies specifically to 2025, and questioned the significance of the term 'advanced' discussions.

Answer

CFO Jennifer Hamann reiterated that the company is confident in its three-year EPS CAGR target and that 2025 performance will be consistent with achieving it. CEO Jim Vena stated the goal is to have the most efficient railroad and lowest operating ratio possible for their business mix, but he does not set a specific number. He dismissed any special meaning to the word 'advanced,' advising to simply read the statement as written.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked about the typical sequential margin improvement from Q1 to Q2 and whether an outsized improvement would be necessary to achieve the full-year EPS target.

Answer

CEO Vincenzo Vena affirmed that they anticipate the historical Q1-to-Q2 margin improvement, potentially even better, due to strong operational execution. CFO Jennifer Hamann added that Q1 is typically the weakest margin quarter and the team is committed to delivering improvement, though volume remains a wildcard.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked for details on the drivers of the 'other expense' line in Q4, which came in lower than expected, and inquired about the expected operating ratio cadence for Q1, considering normal seasonality.

Answer

CFO Jennifer Hamann identified lower casualty costs as the primary driver for the favorable 'other expense' result, reflecting improved safety performance. Regarding Q1 seasonality, she advised that the first quarter typically has the lowest volumes and higher costs from payroll tax resets and weather, suggesting a normal seasonal pattern for the operating ratio.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked for clarification on the guidance for Q4 results to be 'consistent' with Q3 and questioned the outlook for the coal business.

Answer

CFO Jennifer Hamann confirmed that the term 'consistent' applies broadly across key financial metrics, including operating ratio and operating income. EVP of Marketing and Sales Kenny Rocker added that the current weak coal volumes are expected to persist, with the company focused on offsetting this through growth in renewable fuels and its grain network.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America requested more detail on the LTL segment's performance, specifically asking about share wins, cost-saving initiatives, and the drivers behind the expected counter-seasonal margin improvement in the third quarter.

Answer

CEO Adam Miller explained that while the LTL business has scaled significantly through network expansion and acquisition, this has created integration and cost challenges. The team is now focused on optimizing costs, improving processes, and leveraging technology. He noted that the expected counter-seasonal margin improvement in Q3 is driven by these cost initiatives combined with new bid opportunities, allowing them to overcome typical seasonal softness.

Ken Hoexter asked for details on the cost-side improvements that led to U.S. Express reaching profitability and questioned how asset utilization could be improved in the current market, also inquiring about bid season progress.

Answer

Executive Adam Miller explained that improving utilization involves shedding unseated tractors to reduce depreciation costs, which boosts miles per tractor without impacting top-line potential. He added that bid season started strong but lost momentum in March due to tariff uncertainty, with renewals still in the low to mid-single-digit range. Executive Andrew Hess detailed that U.S. Express has achieved over $180 million in annualized cost take-outs and is seeing operational gains in safety, fuel, and hiring, narrowing the OR gap with legacy businesses.

Ken Hoexter requested more detail on the Truckload segment, questioning if the confidence in the bid season was due to early mini-bids or structural cost improvements.

Answer

Executive Adam Miller clarified that improvement is occurring across all areas. He noted the bid season is following a normal pattern, but early contract wins indicate customers expect rates to rise, with the company now targeting mid-single-digit increases. Executive Andrew Hess added that significant progress on variable and fixed costs in H2 2024, plus sustained utilization improvements, provides leverage for margin expansion in 2025.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America Corporation questioned the LTL segment's margin progression following significant facility expansion and the outlook for pricing in the LTL market.

Answer

Executive Adam Miller positioned 2024 as an investment year for the LTL network, with 2025 focused on growth and margin improvement, aided by the DHE acquisition. Executive Andrew Hess identified Q3/Q4 2024 as the margin "low point" due to investment costs, expecting a turnaround in early 2025 as efficiencies improve and new network capabilities are leveraged in bid cycles.

Ken Hoexter asked for the key factors that would determine whether results fall at the high or low end of the revised mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth guidance.

Answer

CEO Tracy Robinson explained the wide guidance range is due to multiple volatile factors. CFO Ghislain Houle elaborated that key variables include foreign exchange rates, with every one-cent appreciation of the Canadian dollar creating a five-cent annualized EPS headwind, as well as fuel price volatility and traffic mix.

Ken Hoexter sought clarity on the near-term outlook, asking about sequential trends for revenue per RTM, directional operating ratio performance in Q2 given the weather rebound, and whether flat Q1 RTMs imply a larger back-half ramp-up.

Answer

CEO Tracy Robinson explained that revenue per RTM depends heavily on volume mix, which is uncertain due to tariffs. She expects to see good margin improvement toward the end of the year. CFO Ghislain Houle added that while fuel was a $0.07 EPS headwind in Q1, he expects no year-over-year impact in Q2 at current prices.

Ken Hoexter asked for the key drivers of the high and low ends of the 2025 outlook, clarification on Q1 seasonality given recent weather, and the rationale for including economic growth in the forecast.

Answer

President and CEO Tracy Robinson identified volumes as the main driver for the guidance range, with potential tariffs being a key factor influencing those volumes. CFO Ghislain Houle added that the forecast assumes a $0.70 FX rate and a pension tailwind of approximately $50 million in 2025, a reversal from a $30 million headwind in 2024.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America inquired about the expected scale of sequential operating ratio (OR) improvement from Q3 to Q4 2024, given the operational disruptions in the third quarter.

Answer

President and CEO Tracy Robinson confirmed that margins will "without a doubt" improve in Q4, making it the best quarter of the year. She noted the final outcome will be determined by the recovery of international volumes. CFO Ghislain Houle added that while they are confident in a better OR, they would not provide a specific number.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America pointed out the railcar backlog was at its lowest level since 2014 and asked about management's confidence in securing new orders. He also inquired about the scale of the railcar restoration business and the mix of deliveries between direct sales and additions to the lease fleet.

Answer

CEO Lorie Tekorius expressed high confidence in the commercial team, attributing the order slowdown to customer uncertainty around trade policy, not a lack of demand. EVP Brian Comstock added that potential legislative catalysts and a significant, non-backlog programmatic railcar restoration business support production. He clarified that these restorations are distinct from simple refurbs and that many aging cars require full replacement. VP Justin Roberts noted the company is more active in the used car market to grow its lease fleet amid higher direct sale activity.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America inquired about the drivers for the revised production guidance, the impact of tariffs on costs, and the effect of interest rates on leasing returns. He also questioned if the lower average selling price on new orders was due to product mix or pricing pressure and sought clarification on the reduced CapEx guidance.

Answer

CEO Lorie Leeson explained the production guidance change reflects both the European facility rationalization and adjustments in North America to manage backlog, while emphasizing the focus on profitability led to higher margin guidance. EVP Brian Comstock confirmed the lower average selling price was due to a product mix shift away from higher-priced auto-racks, not price degradation, and noted lease rates remain strong. CFO Michael Donfris and CEO Lorie Leeson clarified the CapEx adjustment was due to better visibility and timing of lease fleet investments.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America inquired about the primary drivers of the strong Q1 margin performance and the apparent contradiction in commentary regarding an order demand slowdown. He also asked about the declining backlog value and later followed up on why full-year guidance wasn't raised after the strong Q1 beat.

Answer

CEO Lorie Leeson and EVP Brian Comstock attributed the margin strength to a favorable product mix, including auto and specialty cars, combined with significant operational efficiencies from their 'Better Together' strategy. Comstock clarified that the order slowdown was a temporary, pre-election pause and that the pipeline strengthened significantly in December. Regarding the backlog and guidance, Leeson and Executive Justin Roberts explained that the reported backlog doesn't include substantial, margin-accretive refurbishment work. They maintained guidance out of prudence, citing open production capacity in the second half and an expected shift in product mix, stating they were not yet ready to commit to a full year at Q1's high margin levels.

Ken Hoexter asked about the outlook for Norfolk Southern's operating ratio, questioning if the storm-adjusted Q1 result of 66.7% provides a good baseline for forecasting Q2 performance, considering typical seasonal improvements.

Answer

CFO Jason Zampi acknowledged the math but steered focus toward the full-year guidance of 150 basis points of margin improvement. He stated that while the remainder of the year needs to average under a 64% operating ratio to meet targets, the improvement won't be evenly spread. He expects Q2 to show better-than-normal seasonality from the Q1 result but declined to give specific quarterly guidance due to macro uncertainty.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America Corporation asked about the trajectory of Norfolk Southern's operating ratio, questioning if the storm-adjusted Q1 performance sets a benchmark for Q2 to be in the 64% range given seasonal trends.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Jason Zampi reiterated the full-year guidance of 150 basis points of margin improvement and $150 million in productivity savings. He stated that while the rest of the year would need to average below a 64% OR to meet targets, the improvement won't be linear. Zampi expects Q2 to show better-than-normal seasonal improvement from Q1's 67.9% but declined to provide specific quarterly guidance.

Ken Hoexter sought clarification on whether the revenue growth outlook was primarily volume-driven, asked about the expected cadence of share buybacks in 2025, and questioned if potential tariffs were factored into the guidance.

Answer

CMO Ed Boyle clarified that growth is a combination of volume and a price plan designed to beat deflation. CFO Jason Zampi explained that balance sheet restoration will allow for resuming share repurchases at a measured pace in 2025. CEO Mark George confirmed the guidance includes a few points of volume growth, solid core pricing, and their current outlook on tariffs.

Ken Hoexter asked about the Q4 volume outlook, specifically if growth could turn positive, and questioned if coal pricing could decline by double digits.

Answer

CMO Ed Elkins responded that he expects coal prices to drift lower but likely not by double digits. On volume, he expressed high confidence in recapturing business lost to disruptions and handling market demand due to improved network capacity and agility, highlighting opportunistic spot moves in merchandise.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America questioned why the sequential operating ratio (OR) improvement wasn't more significant given the confidence in savings, and asked about the potential upside or downside to the 64-65% OR target.

Answer

Mark George, CFO, reiterated that significant headwinds, including an 80 basis point impact from a wage increase and a 60 basis point impact from fuel, must be overcome. John Orr, COO, added that his confidence stems from strong employee engagement and the scaling of efficiencies through the 'flywheel effect' of operational improvements.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America asked for management's view on what is driving near-term rate pressure despite positive catalysts like sanctions. He also inquired about the potential market shifts from a peace scenario in Ukraine or the Middle East, particularly for the shadow fleet. Lastly, he asked about current market seasonality and whether vessel sale opportunities are increasing.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Hvid acknowledged a weaker start to the year for Suezmaxes but noted a recent strengthening driven by the West-East arbitrage and replacement barrel demand. Regarding a peace scenario, Hvid described the situation as "unprecedented," highlighting the massive growth of the older, shadow fleet. He stated that while the pace of normalization is the "million dollar question," a return to normal trade would likely see these older vessels phased out due to age restrictions. He also noted that vessel prices have softened, creating acquisition opportunities.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America questioned the rationale for maintaining a dual-listing now that TNK is the sole operating entity and asked if Teekay Corp. will cease investing in other shipping sectors. He also inquired about the benefit of the Australia acquisition for TNK and whether an independent valuation was performed. Lastly, he asked if the company might increase its use of time charters given the point in the cycle.

Answer

President and CEO Kenneth Hvid explained the dual-listing is a legacy structure that offers flexibility with two strong balance sheets. He noted that while Teekay Corp. has explored other sectors, crude tankers remain the most attractive investment. Mr. Hvid confirmed that the Australia deal underwent an independent review to ensure a fair valuation. On strategy, he stated that while they constantly evaluate time charters, the company remains comfortable with its high spot market exposure heading into the winter, citing a lack of liquidity in the term market.

Ken Hoexter questioned the short-term softening in Aframax rates despite the upcoming TMX pipeline launch and inquired about the economic rationale for fleet renewal at current high asset prices.

Answer

President and CEO Kevin Mackay advised against over-interpreting short-term rate fluctuations, stating the market will react to TMX once volumes materialize, not in anticipation. On fleet renewal, Mackay acknowledged high asset prices and said the company is not ordering newbuilds currently. He indicated a preference for purchasing secondhand vessels to immediately capitalize on the strong spot market.

Ken Hoexter from Bank of America inquired about the strategic thinking behind Scorpio's investment in crude tanker company DHT and asked for a view on how a potential peace resolution in Ukraine might impact the product tanker market.

Answer

President Robert Bugbee explained the DHT investment as a strategic move based on the view that VLCC market dynamics are improving and that DHT is a 'best in class' operator. Regarding a potential peace scenario, Bugbee stated it's highly doubtful the market would simply revert to its pre-conflict state, noting significant hurdles for the 'dark fleet' to re-enter Western markets.

Ken Hoexter asked for perspective on the timing of the seasonal rate recovery, considering refinery maintenance schedules and newbuild deliveries. He also questioned the reason for the sequential increase in operating costs for the MR fleet.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Lars Nielsen stated that a significant amount of refinery capacity is scheduled to come back online, which should drive a strong seasonal market, traditionally starting around Thanksgiving. Executive James Doyle added that maintenance was above average, suggesting a larger rebound. On costs, CFO Chris Avella explained that quarterly operating expenses can be lumpy and advised looking at year-to-date figures for a clearer trend, attributing the rise to general inflation rather than a specific issue with the MR fleet.

Ken Hoexter asked about the strategy behind the lower percentage of days booked for the Handysize fleet and whether the company was holding off for seasonal strength. He also inquired about current customer interest in three-year time charters.

Answer

President Robert Bugbee clarified that the lower booking percentage was due to a quieter, more volatile summer market, not a strategic hold. He stressed that current rates are at record highs for this time of year. Regarding time charters, he noted that while inquiry exists, he expects strategic activity to resume after the summer holiday period in a few weeks.

Ken Hoexter of Bank of America questioned the 2025 outlook, asking about upside/downside risks given the backlog, the expected quarterly earnings cadence, and whether the Evident acquisition was included. He later followed up on the market's negative reaction to the mid-single-digit revenue growth guidance.

Answer

CFO John Mastalerz outlined the 2025 cadence, expecting balanced revenue growth but more tempered earnings growth in the first half, and confirmed the Evident acquisition is excluded from guidance. CEO Rafael Santana addressed the stock reaction by clarifying the guidance is organic, excludes M&A, and absorbs a ~$100M headwind from divestitures. He affirmed the guidance is aligned with operating plans and the company is committed to delivering on it.

Ken Hoexter questioned the margin difference between international and North American locomotive orders, sought clarification on the Q4 service revenue decline, and asked about the status of the portfolio optimization plan.

Answer

CFO John Olin explained that international margins are contract-specific and not uniformly different from North America. He confirmed the Q4 service revenue decline is a planned production timing shift, with more new locomotives (Equipment) and fewer modernizations (Services) scheduled. Olin also stated the $110 million portfolio optimization plan is mostly executed.