Kerry Holford

Kerry Holford from Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG inquired about the strategy to reinvigorate growth for Seagen assets like Adcetris amid competitive pressures and asked about the drivers and sustainability of the lower 13% tax rate guidance.

Answer

EVP & Chief U.S. Commercial Officer Aamir Malik stated the Seagen portfolio grew 15% YoY, with strong performance from Padcev offsetting competitive headwinds for Adcetris. CFO Dave Denton explained the lower tax rate was due to one-time discrete items and expects the long-term rate to be closer to 15% under new global tax regulations.

Kerry Holford of Berenberg inquired about the strategy to reinvigorate growth for Seagen assets facing competitive pressure, such as Adcetris, and asked about the change in the full-year tax outlook and its long-term sustainability.

Answer

EVP & CFO Dave Denton clarified that the lower 13% tax rate for 2025 is due to one-time items and expects the long-term rate to be closer to 15%. EVP & Chief U.S. Commercial Officer Aamir Malik noted the overall Seagen portfolio grew 15% YoY, and while Adcetris faces headwinds, they are stabilizing, with strong performance from Padcev.

Kerry Holford asked for the proportion of U.S. sales manufactured end-to-end in the U.S. and requested quantification of a Q1 COGS adjustment related to accrued royalties.

Answer

CEO Albert Bourla declined to disclose the specific percentage of drugs made in the U.S. CFO Dave Denton did not quantify the royalty adjustment but noted that the Q1 Medicare Part D redesign had a ~$650 million negative impact on U.S. revenues and that 2025 guidance already accounts for ~$150 million in existing tariffs.

Kerry Holford from Berenberg asked if Lilly plans to offer Mounjaro through its cash-pay channel, similar to Novo's plans for Ozempic, and whether orforglipron would also be available via this channel upon launch.

Answer

Ilya Yuffa, President of Lilly USA, explained that the cash channel is prioritized for products with significant coverage gaps, like Zepbound. Since Mounjaro has over 90% coverage, a cash-pay option is less necessary. He noted that the company will evaluate the strategy for other brands, including future launches like orforglipron, over time.

Kerry Holford asked about the cash-pay approach for Zepbound, inquiring if the vials are available in any U.S. pharmacy chains, if Lilly is considering channels beyond LillyDirect, and if the pen formulation would ever be offered via the cash-pay route.

Answer

Patrik Jonsson, President of Cardiometabolic Health, expressed satisfaction with the self-pay segment's performance, which accounted for 25% of new Zepbound prescriptions in Q1. He stated that LillyDirect was launched to remove friction for patients and that investors should expect more products and services to be added over time, without announcing specifics. He highlighted that the launch of high-dose vials has significantly accelerated market growth.

Kerry Holford from Berenberg asked about market share expectations for Verzenio in early breast cancer following a competitor's approval, and the potential impact from IRA Part D reform and inclusion on the negotiation list.

Answer

Jake Van Naarden, President of Lilly Oncology, expressed confidence in Verzenio's position due to its robust long-term data and preference in guidelines for high-risk patients. He projected a roughly neutral net impact from IRA Part D reform and declined to speculate on the 2027 negotiation list.

Kerry Holford inquired about GSK's discussions with the US administration on tariffs and MFN pricing. She also asked if GSK would consider a direct-to-consumer (DTC) cash-pay model in the US and for which products.

Answer

CEO Dame Emma Walmsley noted GSK is well-positioned for potential US tariffs due to its significant US manufacturing footprint and that dialogue on policy is ongoing. CCO Luke Miels added that while GSK has an open mind on DTC models for certain products like Bligepa, it remains a 'watching brief' until the regulatory landscape becomes clearer.

Kerry Holford inquired about the impact of the U.S. political environment on vaccine demand and future approvals, and asked for a quantification of the Q1 Medicare Part D redesign impact.

Answer

CFO Julie Brown confirmed the Part D impact was in line with the guided GBP 400-500 million annual headwind, with HIV being the largest component. CEO Emma Walmsley and CCO Luke Miels noted that despite a cautious outlook, recent positive ACIP votes are encouraging and vaccine hesitancy is a minor factor in Arexvy uptake. They remain confident in the long-term vaccine market fundamentals.

Kerry Holford from Berenberg questioned the rationale for a smaller $10B share buyback program compared to the previous one and asked for more details on potential 'direct to patient' pricing models in the US.

Answer

CFO Harry Kirsch explained that the previous, larger buyback was funded by the Roche stake sale and the new $10B program is a return to a normal rhythm that balances shareholder returns with M&A flexibility. CEO Vasant Narasimhan confirmed Novartis is exploring direct-to-patient models to lower out-of-pocket costs, though it is in the early stages of evaluation.

Kerry Holford asked for an update on votoplam, confirming if the Phase II data readout was still on track for the first half of the year and whether that data alone could be sufficient for a regulatory filing in Huntington's disease.

Answer

CEO Vasant Narasimhan confirmed the Phase II data for votoplam, which is being conducted by partner PTC, is expected in the first half of the year. He stated that the decision to file based on this data or proceed to a Phase III trial will depend on whether the results show improvements in clinical endpoints in addition to reducing mutant huntingtin protein.

Kerry Holford from Berenberg asked for more detail on the filing delay for remibrutinib in chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), specifically what CMC adjustments are required and the expected length of the delay.

Answer

CEO Vasant Narasimhan explained the delay is due to a required adjustment in a single manufacturing step called 'nano-milling' to ensure an optimal product profile. This adjustment necessitates generating new stability data, which dictates the filing timeline. He expressed hope to file in the early part of 2025 and potentially use a Priority Review Voucher (PRV) to accelerate approval.