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    Ketan Mamtora • BMO Capital Markets

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Rayonier Inc (RYN) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Rayonier Inc (RYN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets asked about the Southern Timber segment, seeking to understand if there were signs of demand stabilization and improvement beyond the effects of salvage activity, particularly given recent housing data and customer sentiment for the second half of the year.

    Answer

    EVP & Chief Resource Officer Douglas Long noted that despite challenges, pine sawtimber pricing was up 3% quarter-over-quarter. He described customer sentiment as mixed but with positive signals, such as some mills planning to increase production and customers in Florida returning to normal harvesting patterns. Long expressed optimism that as salvage volumes clear and Canadian duties take effect, positive momentum will build, though many customers remain cautious.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Rayonier Inc (RYN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets questioned how the company balances its positive second-half outlook with a weaker-than-expected housing environment and asked for an update on progress in natural climate solutions like solar and carbon capture.

    Answer

    President & CEO Mark McHugh acknowledged that recent headwinds, particularly from transitory salvage volume and pandemic-related market dislocations, have been challenging but maintained a long-term optimistic view based on strong housing fundamentals. Collin Mings, an executive, added that progress in land-based solutions continues, highlighting the 154,000 acres in CCS leases and the positive industry implications of Microsoft's recent carbon credit purchase from a pulp mill. He also noted that acres under option for solar leases continued to increase in the first quarter.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Rayonier Inc (RYN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets asked about the strategy for the asset disposition program beyond leverage targets and questioned why Southern log prices haven't risen with lumber production over the last decade, seeking reasons for future optimism.

    Answer

    President & CEO Mark McHugh stated that with leverage targets met, the company can be patient and opportunistic in completing its $1 billion disposition plan, and is not averse to exceeding it for compelling value. On Southern pricing, he attributed past weakness to a disconnect between SYP and SPF lumber prices tied to the R&R cycle, but expressed confidence that a normalization of R&R and higher Canadian duties will create a positive inflection point.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets sought clarification on the Siding segment's back-half guidance, which implies strong Q4 growth, and asked about the operating rates for both OSB and Siding in Q2. He also inquired about the company's production strategy for OSB given the low price environment.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Alan Haughie explained the guidance reflects a symmetrical year, with Q4 revenue expected to be similar to Q1, representing healthy growth over a relatively low Q4 2024. VP of IR Aaron Howald stated Q2 OSB operating rates were in the mid-80% range, with Siding slightly lower. Chair & CEO Brad Southern emphasized that the OSB strategy is to match production to demand to avoid building inventory, which involves taking downtime as needed.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora asked about the primary drivers for the Siding segment's outperformance relative to single-family housing starts, the demand trends in the Repair and Remodel (R&R) market, and current inventory levels in both home center and pro channels.

    Answer

    CEO William Southern explained that the strong Q1 performance was broad-based, with particular strength in shed orders creating an easy comparison to the prior year. He noted that while home center order intake was soft, sell-through was good, leading to inventory drawdowns. Southern characterized Siding channel inventories as seasonally appropriate and OSB inventories as potentially lean due to recent price movements.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets questioned why the Siding EBITDA margin is guided to remain flat in 2025 despite growth in high-margin products, and asked for details on the Houlton Line 2 capacity expansion.

    Answer

    CFO Alan Haughie explained that the margin reflects significant reinvestment, including ~$20M in inflation, $10-15M in added selling and marketing, and ~$5M in engineering costs for growth projects. Executive Aaron Howald added that the Houlton Line 2 expansion will add approximately 300 million square feet of capacity, focusing on lap and trim products.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora asked if product category needs, like lap and trim versus panel, still influence Siding expansion decisions. He also inquired about current demand trends and order activity through Q3 and into October.

    Answer

    CEO Brad Southern confirmed that product mix is a key factor, noting that current growth in lap and trim might favor a more specialized press setup for the next expansion. He characterized current demand activity as solid and steady, feeling like a 'pre-COVID solid year,' which provides confidence heading into year-end.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets asked if Q4 production plans include an inventory build in the channel and inquired about capital allocation priorities as the major Arkansas investment concludes.

    Answer

    President & CEO Bryan Fairbanks responded that he expects both company and channel inventory levels to be similar to the prior year-end. Regarding capital allocation, he outlined the priorities as organic growth, followed by M&A opportunities, and finally share buybacks, noting that significant free cash flow generation is expected.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets asked if Q4 production plans include an inventory build in the channel and inquired about the company's capital allocation priorities as the major Arkansas investment concludes.

    Answer

    President & CEO Bryan Fairbanks responded that he expects both company and channel inventory levels to be similar to the prior year-end. He outlined capital allocation priorities as organic growth, potential acquisitions, and share buybacks, noting that free cash flow generation is expected to increase significantly.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora requested an update on the market performance and early results from Trex's newly launched suite of railing products. He also asked for clarification on how the previously mentioned $40 million inventory benefit would flow through in Q2 and Q3.

    Answer

    CEO Bryan Fairbanks reported meaningful dealer conversions for the new aluminum and steel railing systems, as distributors simplify their inventory and sales efforts to focus on the Trex brand. CFO Brenda Lovcik clarified that of the $40 million destocking headwind from the prior year, most of the favorable comparison would materialize in Q2, with the remainder in Q3, agreeing that a two-thirds/one-third split was a reasonable estimate.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets inquired whether the company is seeing increased substitution of Southern Yellow Pine for Canadian Spruce in lumber due to price differentials, and asked for an order-of-magnitude comparison of current truss margins versus 2019 levels.

    Answer

    CEO Peter Jackson acknowledged that while SPF is preferred, substitution to SYP has been a modest, long-term trend driven by cost, but he has not seen a step-function change yet. When asked to compare current truss margins to 2019, he simply stated they are 'Better.'

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets asked for the key drivers behind the downward revision to the 2025 guidance. He also followed up to confirm if the previously discussed EBITDA impact from the multifamily downturn was still in line with expectations.

    Answer

    CEO Peter Jackson identified the main drivers for the guidance change as lower single-family starts and slightly tighter margin pressure, which is correlated to the lower starts. CFO Pete Beckmann and Jackson both confirmed that the impact from the multifamily downturn is directionally in line with previous expectations and that the company is lapping the majority of that headwind in the first half of the year.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora questioned the projected 2025 revenue decline in multifamily, asking if it was due to lapping tough comparisons or anticipated further declines. He also asked if the margin normalization in both multifamily and single-family was nearing its end.

    Answer

    CEO Designate Peter Jackson confirmed the multifamily revenue decline in 2025 is primarily a result of lapping a strong prior year, as the business has now stabilized. CFO Designate Pete Beckmann added that multifamily margin normalization should be largely complete by Q1 2025. Jackson concluded that while pressure remains due to below-normal starts, the company is in the 'late innings' of the overall margin normalization process.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora inquired about the basis for PotlatchDeltic's Q3 lumber price forecast, the expected reversal of one-time costs in the Wood Products segment, and the company's capital allocation strategy, particularly the balance between share repurchases and maintaining balance sheet strength amid market uncertainty.

    Answer

    President & CEO Eric Cremers explained that the flat Q3 lumber price forecast anticipates that new duties and potential tariffs will tighten supply, causing prices to rise through the quarter. He confirmed that a "perfect storm" of non-recurring Q2 costs in Wood Products, including project-related downtime and an inventory charge, are not expected to repeat in Q3. Regarding capital allocation, Cremers stated that protecting the dividend and balance sheet are paramount, but aggressive share repurchases were pursued in Q2 due to the stock's significant discount to its net asset value and a positive long-term outlook.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora inquired about current demand trends in the new construction and repair and remodel (R&R) channels, the state of channel inventories, and the factors influencing Q2 Northern sawlog price realizations.

    Answer

    President and CEO Eric Cremers described the lumber market as decent, with the South on firmer footing than the North, which he believes is digesting inventory bought in anticipation of tariffs that did not materialize. He noted that channel inventories are generally low and sees price risk to the upside in the second half of the year. Executive Wayne Wasechek added that for Q2 Northern sawlog prices, the typical positive effect from log weight is expected to be offset by lower pricing observed in April.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets asked about the potential for further unit cost reductions at the Waldo sawmill, the current state of the timberland M&A market, and the impact of recent pulp and paper mill closures in the U.S. South.

    Answer

    President and CEO Eric Cremers confirmed more unit cost improvements are expected at the Waldo mill in Q1 2025 before it becomes fully operational in Q2. He described the timberland M&A market as 'quiet,' stating the company remains open to large deals only if they meet its cost of capital threshold. Both Cremers and executive Wayne Wasechek acknowledged challenges from mill closures but expressed long-term optimism due to emerging technologies like biofuels and bioplastics creating new demand for wood fiber.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Potlatchdeltic Corp (PCH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets sought clarification on the Q4 Northern sawlog pricing guidance, asking if it was net of the seasonal density factor. He also inquired about the timeline for solar option contracts to impact the P&L and the current state of the timberland M&A market.

    Answer

    Executive Wayne Wasechek confirmed the 2-3% Northern sawlog price increase guidance is on a net basis. President and CEO Eric Cremers expressed strong optimism for solar, stating that while significant P&L impact is not expected until 2026 and 2027, demand is robust and he anticipates a high option execution rate. Cremers also described the timberland M&A market as 'paused,' with a lack of high-quality properties for sale due to economic uncertainty, though buyer interest remains high.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets questioned if the competitive dynamics in the site-built business have stabilized or worsened, asked how UFP Industries is positioning itself for the upcoming increase in Canadian lumber duties, and inquired about the capital allocation priorities between M&A and share repurchases.

    Answer

    CFO Michael Cole stated that while site-built volumes increased seasonally from Q1 to Q2, pricing pressure has intensified and is expected to continue. CEO Will Schwartz noted that Canadian lumber is a small component of their total spend, with most purchases being domestic, and the company is exploring converting products to domestic species to mitigate duty impacts. Regarding capital allocation, Cole reiterated that growth through capital investments and M&A is the top priority, but share buybacks are a great avenue when the stock is trading at a discount and M&A opportunities are not attractive.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets asked for the approximate EBITDA impact from the Deckorators customer shift, whether the underlying market was flat, the timeline for the shift's resolution, and the nature of the current M&A pipeline and preferred deal size.

    Answer

    Chief Financial Officer Michael Cole quantified the negative manufacturing variance impact from the Deckorators volume decline at $2 million and noted the overall 11% unit decline could be used for estimation. Chief Executive Officer William Schwartz confirmed the underlying market was flattish and that the shift should be fully resolved in Q2, with the second half expected to be up year-over-year. On M&A, Schwartz described the pipeline as robust across all business units. Cole added that the company is open to both traditional tuck-in acquisitions and larger, disciplined transactions that are close to their core business.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora asked about current trends in the Packaging segment, focusing on demand, pricing, and competitive dynamics. He also requested an update on the company's $1 billion multi-year capital expenditure program and sought guidance on how to model incremental and decremental margins for the Packaging and Construction segments following recent cost rationalizations.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman Matthew Missad stated that the Packaging segment continues to face market pressure, which is expected to last through the first half of 2025, although he believes pricing has bottomed. CFO Michael Cole added that a negative mix shift is occurring, with the lower-margin PalletOne business outperforming. Regarding CapEx, Cole confirmed the $1 billion plan is intact, with $350 million in new projects planned for approval in 2025. For margins, he suggested that historical decremental/incremental ranges of around 20% for Packaging and Construction remain a reasonable guide, provided there are no major pricing swings.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Ufp Industries Inc (UFPI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets inquired about the M&A pipeline, asking if opportunities were concentrated in a specific segment, and questioned if the cadence of the multiyear capital investment plan would change given the market backdrop. He also requested more detail on pressures within the Construction segment.

    Answer

    CEO Matt Missad stated that the M&A strategy is focused on finding the best value within their established strategic runways rather than weighting any single segment. CFO Mike Cole affirmed that the multiyear, ~$1 billion capital investment plan remains on its expected cadence over the next 4-5 years. Regarding the Construction segment, Matt Missad cited broad economic uncertainty and rate sensitivity, while Mike Cole specified that the weaker Q4 outlook was driven by underperformance in the Commercial and Concrete Forming business units.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora inquired about the potential for substitution between Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) and SPF lumber given the duty situation and asked for the company's Q2 operating rates for its key Wood Products businesses.

    Answer

    CEO Devin Stockfish confirmed a significant opportunity for SYP to gain market share from SPF due to the growing price gap and builders' focus on cost. He then provided the Q2 operating rates: high-80s for lumber, mid-90s for OSB, and high-70s for Engineered Wood Products.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets asked about the progress in recapturing Engineered Wood Products (EWP) market share from open web floor trusses and sought details on the expected increase in Forest Carbon credit sales in 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Devin Stockfish explained that recapturing EWP market share has been slower than anticipated due to recent low lumber prices, but he remains confident it will convert back over time. On the Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) front, Mr. Stockfish reported selling approximately 50,000 credits in 2024 and projected a significant 5x to 10x year-over-year increase in carbon credit sales for 2025, driven by seven additional projects currently in the pipeline.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora asked for clarification on the sequential pressure in the Engineered Wood Products (EWP) business, the operating rates for key segments in Q3, and the status of log exports from the U.S. South.

    Answer

    CEO Devin Stockfish explained the EWP pressure was primarily volume-related, as they cut production to match weaker-than-expected July housing activity, which increased unit costs. He provided Q3 operating rates: lumber (mid-to-high 70s), OSB (high 80s), and EWP (mid-60s). He also confirmed they are actively growing log exports from the U.S. South to markets like India and Vietnam to diversify away from China.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets asked for clarification on West Fraser's openness to a lumber quota, an update on the Section 232 investigation, Q2 operating rates for lumber and OSB, and the key indicators for its flexible operating strategy in the OSB business.

    Answer

    President and CEO Sean McLaren confirmed that the industry has not taken any options off the table regarding trade solutions to ensure lumber is part of broader discussions. He stated there was no new information on the Section 232 investigation. SVP and CFO Chris Virostek directed to the AIF for capacity figures to calculate operating rates and noted they monitor housing starts, permits, and interest rates to flex OSB production, given limited inventory capacity.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora inquired about current demand trends for lumber and OSB as the market enters its busiest season, and asked for an update on capital allocation priorities, specifically comparing the M&A pipeline against share repurchases.

    Answer

    SVP of Sales and Marketing, Matt Tobin, described customer purchasing as 'somewhat subdued' and cautious, with no significant changes in demand drivers. President and CEO Sean McLaren added that despite a slow, weather-impacted start to the year, inventories are in reasonable shape and volumes should normalize, excluding unpredictable tariff impacts. On capital allocation, McLaren stated that the criteria for M&A remains very high, focusing on acquisitions that are immediately strengthening. SVP and CFO Christopher Virostek emphasized the company's durable, cycle-agnostic strategy that keeps all options open, but noted that current tariff uncertainty makes pricing potential M&A assets challenging.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets asked about the impact of recent U.S. pulp mill closures on chip residue income in the U.S. South and the underlying demand assumptions for residential construction and R&R in the 2025 volume guidance.

    Answer

    President and CEO Sean McLaren explained that pulp mill closures, combined with increased lumber production, have put downward pressure on chip prices in the U.S. South, though the impact is regional. Regarding 2025 guidance, McLaren and CFO Christopher Virostek stated it largely reflects a continuation of the run rate from the second half of 2024, without baking in significant changes to demand drivers or speculating on external factors like tariffs.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora inquired about the demand trend in the Repair and Remodeling (R&R) market for lumber, the reasons for a muted price response in SPF lumber despite strong new construction, and the preliminary outlook for capital expenditures in the next fiscal year.

    Answer

    President and CEO Sean McLaren, along with SVP of Sales and Marketing Matt Tobin, noted that while Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) demand has seen slight improvement, recent price gains are primarily due to supply-side curtailments. They explained the SPF price dynamic is influenced by strong demand for wider-width products. SVP and CFO Christopher Virostek indicated that 2025 CapEx would likely trend slightly lower than 2024 as major projects are completed, with no new large-scale projects planned for the immediate near-term.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Boise Cascade Co (BCC) leadership

    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Boise Cascade Co (BCC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora questioned the drivers behind the expected double-digit year-over-year decline in Q2 I-joist volumes. He also asked for commentary on the company's inventory levels, which are up year-over-year, and sought CEO Nate Jorgensen's perspective on recent industry consolidation.

    Answer

    CFO Kelly Hibbs attributed the I-joist volume decline primarily to lower year-over-year housing start comparisons, not a loss of market share. COO Jeff Strom justified the higher inventory, stating the company strategically leaned into winter buys to serve a distribution-friendly market. CEO Nate Jorgensen commented that Boise Cascade is well-positioned to manage industry consolidation by staying focused on high-level execution for both suppliers and customers.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Boise Cascade Co (BCC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora from BMO Capital Markets asked if the trough for BMD EBITDA margins could be considered slightly above 5% given recent investments and mix shifts. He also inquired about the M&A pipeline and the company's interest in adding new product categories to its distribution business.

    Answer

    CFO Kelly Hibbs stated that the company's strategy is for BMD margins to average in the mid-5% range through a cycle, but he cautioned that margins could dip below 5% in Q1 2025 due to top-line pressures. On M&A, Hibbs confirmed continued interest in strategic opportunities, particularly on the distribution side. CEO Nate Jorgensen added that new product considerations are driven by customer and supplier needs and must align with the company's core competencies.

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    Ketan Mamtora's questions to Boise Cascade Co (BCC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Ketan Mamtora asked for clarity on the expected Q4 seasonal slowdown for EWP and BMD given a strong October, inquired about the performance of the BROSCO acquisition, and requested the EWP operating rate for the third quarter.

    Answer

    CFO Kelly Hibbs and CEO Nate Jorgensen acknowledged the strong October but anticipate a slowdown in November and December due to fewer sales days and macro uncertainty, emphasizing the need to be agile. Jeff Strom, Head of BMD, reported that the BROSCO business has been 'rock solid' and is exceeding expectations. Kelly Hibbs confirmed that EWP operating rates were around 80% in Q3.

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