Kevin MacCurdy • Pickering Energy Partners

Answer

CFO Sunil Mathew explained that the market is burdened by excess Chinese capacity, which is compressing margins. He does not anticipate significant improvement in 2026 from announced capacity rationalizations and expects market conditions to remain similar to 2025, with margins near the variable costs of international producers.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Co-CEO Will Hickey confirmed significant drilling efficiency gains, with five of the top ten fastest wells drilled in Q2, creating tailwinds for cost reductions in the second half. He noted that the well completion cadence remains consistent with previous guidance of 275 net wells for the year, with a slight back-half weighting.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Executive Hays Mabry revealed the deal evolved from ongoing discussions over the last 6-9 months into a formal process. He noted the acquired inventory is highly competitive and will receive capital allocation immediately. Mabry attributed the Q1 production outperformance primarily to artificial lift optimization and strong well results on assets from the 2024 acquisitions.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Co-CEO William Hickey explained that the decision is driven by the program's excellent returns, which have improved despite lower commodity prices due to cost reductions. Executive Hays Mabry added the focus is on per-share growth. CFO Guy Olefin stated that minimal 2025 cash taxes are a result of optimized tax planning learned from the Earthstone integration, but noted taxes will become more meaningful in 2026 and 2027.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Co-CEO William Hickey confirmed that the current run-rate efficiency would yield slightly more than the guided 270 wells per year, as the gains were achieved progressively. An unnamed executive attributed the higher NGL volumes to increased ethane recovery, a decision driven by weak in-basin WAHA gas prices, which provides an overall uplift to BOE volumes.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CEO Jason Long explained that the new rules focus on preventing concentrated injection, which aligns perfectly with LandBridge's strategy of using its large, contiguous acreage to spread out disposal activities. CFO Scott McNeely added that this regulatory shift validates their long-held operating philosophy. Regarding the Devon deal, McNeely stated that while he couldn't disclose the exact royalty rate, it aligns with their view of the prevailing market rate, with financial impacts beginning in 2027.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CFO Scott McNeely stated that LandBridge's acreage is in the most economic core of the basin, insulating it from pullbacks in fringier areas, and that producers have not altered development plans through 2027-28. Regarding data centers, McNeely reiterated the 12-18 month update timeline, noting continued strong momentum. He also highlighted growing opportunities in broader in-basin power generation, which requires land and water, and expects positive updates on that front soon.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Executive Scott McNeely stated that the 2025 guidance is based on firm operator plans and assumes no meaningful activity ramp, with minimal sensitivity to commodity prices as the minerals business is expected to be less than 10% of revenue. He explained the DESRI solar project will take 2-3 years for development, after which it is expected to contribute mid-to-high single-digit millions in annual cash flow.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Scott McNeely (executive) attributed the produced water strength to the Devon partnership, strong commercial traction with blue-chip operators, and the symbiotic relationship with WaterBridge. Jason Long (executive) added that strategic land acquisition based on geology and pore space has been key. Regarding the macro outlook, Scott McNeely noted that producer efficiency gains and a shift to developing deeper benches with inherently higher water cuts are driving increased water volumes, benefiting LandBridge through higher royalties.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CEO Daniel Brown stated that CapEx savings for 2025 are de minimis due to the small scale of the change. He noted future savings will depend on the mix of well lengths but confirmed longer laterals exert downward pressure on capital. Regarding the TIL count, Brown explained that while fewer TILs impact production, the focus remains on free cash flow per share, and the timing shift into early 2026 is a normal part of operations.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

COO Danny Wesson confirmed they have seen about 15% inflation on casing and anticipate more, though their procurement agreement provides some discount to spot prices. CEO Kaes Van't Hof explained the GP&T guidance change was due to taking more gas 'in-kind,' while the LOE improvement reflects strong first-half performance and early synergies from the Endeavor integration, with run-rate LOE expected in the $5.60-$5.80 range.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

President Kaes Van’t Hof responded that following the significant Endeavor and Double Eagle acquisitions, the company is now in a period of patience due to market volatility. He emphasized that the current focus is on reducing share count and debt, and any M&A would have to be 'extremely, extremely cheap,' which is not the case at present.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

President Kaes Van't Hof explained that Double Eagle accounts for about $200 million of CapEx from Q2-Q4. He noted that the Q1 2025 guidance of $900 million to $1 billion reflects the pre-deal plan, which involved cutting capital due to market volatility. Regarding assets for sale, he highlighted about $60 million in midstream CapEx associated with the Endeavor water business but stated that CapEx for the non-op Delaware position is not a meaningful number.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Chairman and CEO Travis Stice confirmed that these are best practices being implemented across the entire pro forma company. He stated that all Diamondback wells in 2024 used clear fluid and SimulFRAC, and as of the fourth quarter, all rigs and completion crews for the combined company are using these systems, with three of the four frac crews being electric.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CFO Michael Kennedy explained the gassier mix was temporary, caused by bringing lean gas DUC pads online, and that the mix will become more liquids-rich in Q4. He confirmed the 2026 collars reflect a bullish view, stating the market is 'razor thin' with significant upside potential, making it prudent to lock in the capital program while retaining 80% of the upside exposure.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CFO Michael Kennedy stated that significant, long-term local demand, such as from new power plants or data centers, would be required to incentivize growth, as their current maintenance program already fills their firm transportation and processing capacity. Regarding 2026 LPG sales, Kennedy expressed confidence in their marketing team's ability to analyze market dynamics and make opportunistic decisions to maximize value.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CFO Michael Kennedy stated that current well costs are in the low $900s per foot, down from $925 in 2024, due to new, lower-rate drilling contracts. The 2025 plan bakes in the efficiency gains achieved in 2024. SVP of Liquids Marketing Dave Cannelongo explained the improved ethane differential guidance is due to stronger-priced sales contracts coming online and the expiration of a less favorable contract, giving them high confidence in the 2025 forecast.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CFO Michael Kennedy specified that the CapEx reduction consisted of $15 million from efficiencies and $10 million from deferrals. He confirmed that the $700 million maintenance capital forecast for 2025 fully incorporates these recent efficiency gains, such as improved cycle times and lower well costs.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

President, Director & CEO Domenic Dell’Osso stated the company is focused on integrating its recent large merger and has a high bar for any potential deals. He clarified that the capital plan for productive capacity is firm, and any adjustments to near-term market conditions would be made by flexing production timing, not capital.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

President & CEO Domenic Dell’Osso stated that while the company always considers opportunities, it has a high bar for deals and is currently focused on integrating its recent large merger. He also clarified that the plan is to execute the capital spend for productive capacity and then decide when to bring wells online based on market conditions, rather than adjusting the capital spend itself.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

President, Director & CEO Domenic Dell’Osso stated the company is focused on integrating its recent large merger and is satisfied with its current portfolio, emphasizing a high bar for any potential deals. He also clarified that the company's plan for productive capacity is set, and any adjustments to near-term market conditions would involve production timing, not capital spend, due to the strong long-term outlook.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Robert Macalik, EVP of Administration and Finance, stated that recent tax developments are expected to push out the company's obligations under the AMT for 'several years' based on current commodity price rates. He confirmed this will be a benefit to free cash flow starting in 2025, though the company is still finalizing its analysis.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Brian Willey, EVP and CFO, stated that the decision is not based on a single metric but a mix of factors. He reiterated that the company will evaluate all uses of cash—including debt repayment, acquisitions, midstream expansion, adding a rig, or increasing the dividend—to determine what provides the most long-term value for shareholders.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CEO Joseph Wm. Foran emphasized a strategy of 'profitable growth at a measured pace,' highlighting numerous opportunities across their inventory and midstream business. He stated a preference for steady dividend increases over stock buybacks, which he believes favor short-term investors. Executive Bryan Erman added that the company is excited to be in a position to return value to shareholders through its growing free cash flow.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Glenn Stetson, EVP of Production, attributed the outperformance to seven new, high-performing Tea Olive wells brought online before the acquisition closed. He noted that Q4 production may see a slight, temporary dip due to shut-ins related to fracturing operations on 11 new wells. Edmund Frost, EVP of Geoscience, added that the strong well results confirm the high quality of the rock in that part of the basin.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CEO Miguel Galuccio reported very good progress on the project, with contractual work starting in May across all fronts. He stated the first stage, with a capacity of around 550,000 barrels per day, is expected to be ready by mid-2027. A key milestone recently achieved was the closing of a $2 billion syndicated five-year term loan, which secures financing for 70% of the project cost and reflects strong investor confidence.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

EVP and CFO William Bullock explained that the full-year effective tax rate is now forecast to be higher, near 40%, due to a geographic income mix shifting to higher-tax jurisdictions. The Q1 cash tax rate was specifically impacted by one-time discrete deferred tax items related to Lower 48 dispositions, which created a temporary headwind. He noted that underlying deferred tax benefits from normal operations continue to be realized.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Nick Olds, EVP of Lower 48, noted that the Lower 48 oil mix has been stable at 52-53%. Andy O'Brien, SVP of Strategy, confirmed the questioner's hypothesis, stating there was nothing unusual in the mix and the primary driver for the company-wide change was the major turnaround at Surmont, which is a 100% oil asset.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Executive Brendan McCracken reaffirmed the company's belief in a multi-product portfolio, stating that having low breakeven options in both oil and gas is the best strategy given future commodity uncertainty. He noted that while the current 50/50 capital return split makes sense, the company is not 'ideologically stuck' and could adjust its allocation in the future.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

Executive Brendan McCracken explained that the current strategy favors allocating capital to oil wells to capture associated gas upside, viewing share buybacks as a better use of cash than growth. Regarding AECO, he believes the benefit from new LNG offtake will be 'relatively transient,' and the company's strategy remains focused on diversifying away from the AECO hub.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

President and CEO Clay Gaspar assured that 2026 productivity would not be sacrificed, as the rig count reduction is a direct result of significant drilling efficiency gains, allowing them to maintain the same output with less activity. On capital shifts, he stated that while they are commodity agnostic and constantly evaluate options, they are cautious about 'chasing false positives' from short-term price swings, though they are on 'high alert' given the current market dynamics.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

COO Clay Gaspar identified two primary drivers for the lower capital guidance: realized D&C savings of $600,000 per well in the Williston Basin, and anticipated capital efficiency gains from the dissolution of the BPX joint venture in the Eagle Ford. He noted the new guide assumes a status quo for service costs.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

SVP of Business Units Michael Deshazer noted that the company enters 2025 with a healthy DUC inventory and the change is manageable. Chairman, CEO and President Thomas Jorden clarified that debt repayment and buybacks can happen concurrently, with debt repayment being front-end weighted and buybacks back-end weighted, and that the 50% return goal is best enabled by maintaining low leverage.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CFO Jeremy Knop stated that about $80 million of Olympus's EBITDA is attributable to its midstream assets, and the high margins are due to its integrated nature. The gas is currently sold at M2, but EQT sees opportunities to improve that. Regarding the MVP guidance, Knop clarified it was purely an accounting change to separately book distributions and contributions, with no net change to the project's forecasted cash flow or economics.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CFO Ann Janssen stated that the company has flexibility in its debt and cash levels and will manage them according to business needs. Chairman and CEO Ezra Yacob clarified that the distinction for acquisitions is based on value drivers, not a specific dollar amount. EOG targets low-PDP assets with high undrilled upside, often in emerging plays, to enhance long-term margins rather than paying premiums for established assets.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

Answer

CFO Alan Shepard provided a target Utica well cost of approximately $1,800 per foot for 2024. He also confirmed that CMM volumes are not capped and could grow with proper incentives but declined to estimate total capacity without final regulations.

Ask Fintool Equity Research AI