Koichi Niwa

Koichi Niwa questioned the low Value at Risk (VaR) in March, asking if it was a result of intentional risk control. He also asked if the firm is becoming more aggressive in its use of risk assets for strategic purposes, such as acquisitions.

Answer

CFO Takumi Kitamura explained that the low VaR was due to a deliberate, stringent control of business activities given the market situation and the timing of their full-year results. Regarding risk assets, he stated that while press reports on specific deals are speculative, the firm is not averse to using risk assets for strategic opportunities, such as potential bolt-on M&A for its newly acquired asset management platform.

Koichi Niwa of Citigroup Global Markets Japan Inc. questioned Nomura's policy on cross-shareholdings, suggesting they could be eliminated entirely. He also challenged the 2030 ROE target of 8-10%+, asking why it hasn't been revised upward given that recent performance has exceeded this range, making the target appear too low.

Answer

CFO Takumi Kitamura responded that Nomura has been aggressively reducing its policy holdings, now down to ~2.8% of Tier 1 capital, and intends to continue selling shares that are not essential to hold, though complete elimination is difficult due to unlisted stocks. Regarding the ROE target, Mr. Kitamura emphasized the primary goal is to consistently achieve a baseline of at least 8% ROE, even in challenging markets. He explained the focus is on building a stable earnings base through recurring revenue, which provides the foundation to achieve over 10% ROE when market conditions are favorable.

Koichi Niwa asked about the early execution of the recent share buyback and whether additional buybacks were discussed. He also questioned if the recurring asset target for Wealth Management could be revised upward and asked for an update on the acquisition of emerging-wealth clients.

Answer

Takumi Kitamura, CFO, explained the share buyback was executed early to capitalize on a lower share price when performance recovery was anticipated. While no new buyback was discussed for Q1, it remains a key capital policy option. Regarding Wealth Management, he acknowledged strong growth but wants to conduct internal reviews before revising targets. He confirmed that client acquisition, including emerging-wealth clients via workplace services, is on a 'very healthy cycle' with significant growth.

Koichi Niwa of Citigroup Inc. asked about shareholder returns, questioning the balance between growth investments and shareholder distributions given the stock's valuation. He specifically asked if ORIX could be more agile with share buybacks to support the share price.

Answer

Kazuki Yamamoto, Operating Officer, confirmed that the Board of Directors regularly discusses the balance between growth investments and shareholder returns. However, he stated that the company has not extensively discussed implementing agile share buybacks solely to support short-term share price fluctuations. Decisions on buybacks are made in comparison to growth opportunities, not as a reactive measure to market volatility.

Koichi Niwa from Citigroup Inc. questioned the company's shareholder return policy, asking for an evaluation of the balance between growth investments and returns, and whether ORIX might consider more agile share buybacks to support its stock price.

Answer

Kazuki Yamamoto, Operating Officer, responded that the Board of Directors regularly discusses capital allocation, including the reasonableness of the share price. However, he stated that the company does not execute share buybacks in immediate response to short-term price fluctuations, but rather considers them as part of a broader, strategic comparison against growth investment opportunities.

Koichi Niwa of Citigroup Inc. asked about shareholder returns, questioning the balance between growth investments and share buybacks given the stock's valuation, and whether ORIX could be more agile with its buyback program to support the share price.

Answer

Kazuki Yamamoto, Operating Officer, confirmed that the Board of Directors regularly discusses the balance between growth investments and shareholder returns, including the stock's valuation. However, he stated that the board has not extensively discussed implementing agile share buybacks solely to support a fluctuating share price, emphasizing that such decisions are not based on short-term market movements.

Koichi Niwa asked for reasons behind the apparent weakness in equity flow revenue in the Wealth Management division and the rare decline in equity assets under custody. He questioned whether these were due to market factors, customer behavior shifts like moving to online brokers, or other structural changes, and also asked about any new field-level initiatives.

Answer

CFO Kotaro Yoshida explained that the equity flow weakness was not severe, attributing it to sluggish activity in April-May and a lack of large TOB events, not a structural shift. He stated that activity recovered in July. The decline in assets under custody was primarily due to mark-to-market price adjustments from a lower Nikkei average, not a churn to online securities. He added that there are no major changes in initiatives, but a heightened focus on meticulous customer follow-up amid market volatility.

Koichi Niwa requested a detailed update on the Global Investment Banking pipeline, broken down by region and product. He also asked about the progress of the collaboration with Aozora Bank and the potential impairment risk on Daiwa's investment.

Answer

Executive Managing Director and CFO Kotaro Yoshida reported that the PO and DCM pipelines are flat year-on-year, while the IPO pipeline is down. He highlighted strong domestic M&A demand and stable pipelines in Europe and the Americas. Regarding Aozora Bank, he stated there is no direct impairment risk from its share price, as the investment is valued on equity net assets. He confirmed the collaboration is actively generating results in areas like M&A finance.

Koichi Niwa requested an update on the Global Investment Banking pipeline by region and product, and also asked about the progress of the collaboration with Aozora Bank, including any potential impairment risk on Daiwa's stake.

Answer

Kotaro Yoshida, Executive Managing Director and CFO, reported a flat pipeline for PO and DCM, a lower pipeline for IPOs, but strong domestic M&A demand. Regarding Aozora Bank, he stated there is no direct impairment risk from its share price as the investment is valued on equity in net assets. He confirmed the collaboration is actively yielding results in corporate and M&A finance.

Koichi Niwa from Citigroup Securities asked about two operational topics: the deposit funding strategy for Daiwa Next Bank amidst rising rates, and the measures Daiwa Securities employs to monitor its sales staff and prevent inappropriate behavior, particularly with senior clients.

Answer

Kotaro Yoshida, Executive, explained that Daiwa Next Bank's strategy is not to compete on deposit rates but to leverage comprehensive client relationships and targeted campaigns to acquire deposits. On employee conduct, he detailed a multi-layered approach including stringent record-keeping of client meetings, mandatory manager accompaniment for senior client visits, ongoing compliance training, and the recent implementation of an automatic system to record communications with clients.

Koichi Niwa of Citigroup inquired about the Wealth Management division, asking for the reasons behind the weakening equity flow revenue and the rare decline in equity assets under custody. He questioned whether these trends were due to market factors, customer behavior, or a structural shift of clients to online securities platforms.

Answer

CFO Kotaro Yoshida explained that the equity flow weakness was not severe and was mainly due to sluggish activity in April-May and a lack of large corporate actions like TOBs, not a structural problem. He noted activity recovered in July. The decline in equity assets under custody was attributed to mark-to-market valuation changes following a drop in the Nikkei average from a high Q4, rather than an outflow of clients to online brokers. He added that the firm is focused on providing careful follow-up to clients amid market volatility.