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Kyle Graeter

Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS

Kyle Graeter is a Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS Investment Bank, specializing in the airlines and transportation sectors. He covers major companies including Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Alaska Air Group, with a strong performance track record featuring a 68% success rate on stock ratings and average returns of 12.5% per TipRanks data, ranking him in the top 10% of analysts covering transportation. Graeter joined UBS in 2021 after spending over a decade at Susquehanna International Group as a Senior Research Analyst and earlier roles at Credit Suisse and Barclays, beginning his career in equity research in 2008. He holds Series 7, 63, and 86 FINRA licenses and has been recognized by Institutional Investor as part of the All-America Research Team.

Kyle Graeter's questions to Ternium (TX) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Kyle Graeter asked about Ternium's margin potential without the removal or lowering of USMCA Section 232, seeking an estimate for EBITDA margin rise in the next couple of quarters. He also inquired about management's long-term priorities post-2027, including corporate simplification, Usiminas minority stake, M&A, organic projects in Mexico, dividend policy, and share buybacks, and later sought clarification on whether margin recovery estimates included USMCA impacts and the balance between growth and shareholder returns.

Answer

Pablo Brizzio (CFO, Ternium) stated that USMCA impact is likely for 2027+, but expects margin enhancement in Q1 2026 without it, aiming for 15% by year-end. Máximo Vedoya (CEO, Ternium) confirmed corporate simplification remains a goal and returning to shareholders is a priority. He sees further growth opportunities in Brazil and Mexico, but it's too early to detail specific projects. Mr. Vedoya clarified that both increasing dividends and pursuing growth opportunities in core markets are priorities, but a share buyback program is not currently considered.

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Question · Q4 2025

Kyle Graeter asked about Ternium's margin potential without relying on the U.S. removing or lowering Section 232, specifically how much EBITDA margin could rise over the next couple of quarters under current conditions. He also sought insights into Ternium's long-term vision (5-10 years post-2027), including management's priorities such as corporate simplification, Usiminas minority stake, M&A, or other organic projects in Mexico. He followed up by asking if growth opportunities in main markets would be a priority over raising dividends or implementing a buyback program.

Answer

Pablo Brizzio (CFO, Ternium) clarified that the expected margin enhancement for 2026, with a possibility of reaching 15% by year-end, is without considering any impact from USMCA negotiations. Máximo Vedoya (CEO, Ternium) stated that corporate simplification remains a goal, and returning to shareholders (including increasing dividends) is a priority. He sees further long-term growth opportunities in Brazil and Mexico, driven by market growth and import substitution. Vedoya confirmed that both increasing dividends and pursuing growth opportunities in main markets are priorities, but a share buyback program is not being considered.

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