Laurent Vasilescu

Laurent Vasilescu from BNP Paribas sought a detailed explanation of the anticipated 2026 margin outlook, specifically the impact of FX and tariffs, questioning why tariffs would exert significant pressure despite July pricing actions and what further mitigation strategies are planned. He also asked for a Q1 top-line growth indication.

Answer

CFO Ivica Krolo clarified that fiscal 2026 margins face a 200 basis points drag from FX (300-350 bps revenue impact, 90% to gross profit, 2/3 to EBITDA) and tariffs (100 bps margin pressure), with impacts more pronounced in H1. He noted that pricing offsets absolute tariff costs but not margin percentage, and mitigation includes production efficiencies, improved logistics, better supplier terms, and growing APAC share. CEO Oliver Reichert added that Q1 top-line is expected to be 'well above guidance.'

Laurent Vasilescu of Exane BNP Paribas questioned the slightly lower-than-expected EMEA growth in Q3, its future growth algorithm, and followed up on Q4 gross margin expectations and the outlook for the next fiscal year.

Answer

Mehdi Bouyakhf, President of EMEA, clarified that the 13% growth was strong but constrained by limited production capacity, not a lack of demand. He noted strong sell-through and expects a return to mid-high teens growth in Q4. CFO Ivica Krolo added that pricing and better cost absorption are driving gross margin expansion, and the company is getting closer to its 60% target for the year.

Laurent Vasilescu asked if the significant mix increase in closed-toe silhouettes was primarily driven by the Boston clog and whether a similar increase should be expected in the second half, while also asking about the growth outlook for sandals.

Answer

EMEA President Nico Bouyakhf clarified that while the open-toe sandal business is growing at a strong double-digit rate, the closed-toe category is growing twice as fast. He emphasized that this growth is diversified beyond the Boston, with non-Boston clogs and laced-up shoes growing at a similar strong pace, significantly outgrowing the clog business.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas welcomed the new CFO, Ivica Krolo, asking about his excitement for the role and perceived challenges. He also sought clarification on whether to expect balanced D2C/B2B growth in Q2 and if Q2 sales would align with the full-year 15-17% growth range.

Answer

CFO Ivica Krolo expressed excitement about the brand's legacy and substantial growth runway, identifying the primary challenge as scaling systems and infrastructure to keep pace with rapid growth. VP, Global Finance Alexander Hoff clarified that while full-year growth will be balanced between channels, the outperformance of B2B in Q1 means D2C is expected to grow stronger in the cumulative upcoming quarters.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about the number of planned store openings for fiscal 2025, the brand's positioning and long-term opportunity in China, and the potential future mix of the closed-toe shoe category.

Answer

Niko Weake, President of EMEA, stated the company aims to increase its store fleet by 50% in fiscal 2025. CSO Klaus Baumann noted that in China, where the brand has a long history, they are accelerating growth and plan to double their store fleet in the next year. Niko Weake added that the closed-toe category, currently about one-third of the business, will continue to grow its share at a rate more than double that of sandals.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about China's over 30% growth this quarter, questioning if it reflects a luxury market rebound or is idiosyncratic to Ralph Lauren. He also sought clarification on how to think about China's growth for the current year, given the prior long-term guidance of low double digits.

Answer

Patrice Louvet, CEO, expressed satisfaction with China's 30% performance, attributing it to the successful execution of Ralph Lauren's strategy, including brand building, leveraging core items, leaning into high-potential categories (especially women's apparel and handbags), and selective footprint expansion in key cities. He suggested that much of the performance is driven by idiosyncratic elements specific to Ralph Lauren, given its relatively small market share in a significant market. Louvet reaffirmed the long-term guidance of low double-digit growth for China, emphasizing the balance of growth drivers: healthy comp growth, selective new store expansion, acceleration of digital platforms (including social commerce like Douyin), and strong new consumer recruitment and clientele understanding. He stressed a disciplined approach to ensure quality and sustainable growth.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about Ralph Lauren's strong 30%+ growth in China, questioning if it reflects a luxury market rebound or is idiosyncratic to the brand, and sought clarification on the company's growth expectations for China, referencing a prior low double-digit guidance.

Answer

Patrice Louvet, CEO, expressed satisfaction with China's 30% growth, attributing it to the successful execution of Ralph Lauren's strategy, including brand building, leveraging core items, and high-potential categories like women's apparel and handbags, alongside selective footprint expansion and unique ecosystems. He believes much of the performance is idiosyncratic to Ralph Lauren, given its relatively small market share in a significant market. Mr. Louvet reaffirmed the low double-digit growth guidance for China over the three-year plan, emphasizing balanced growth drivers such as healthy comp growth, new store expansion, digital acceleration (including social commerce and Douyin activations), and strong clientele understanding, all contributing to disciplined, quality, and sustainable growth.

Laurent Vasilescu asked for specific expectations for China within the broader Asia growth guidance and requested a quantification of the tariff impact on gross margin in basis points.

Answer

President and CEO Patrice Louvet detailed China's strong momentum, driven by impactful marketing and quality store expansion, stating the expectation for fiscal '26 is for low double-digit growth. CFO Justin Picicci addressed the margin question by stating the full-year gross margin is expected to be flat, as tailwinds like AUR growth will offset headwinds including tariffs. He did not quantify the tariff impact but noted it would be weighted to the second half of the year.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about the future trajectory of the North American business, noting its recent inflection back to growth.

Answer

Executive Justin Picicci explained that the current strength is the result of deliberate, multi-year brand elevation strategies in North America, including reducing off-price exposure. He highlighted six consecutive quarters of solid DTC comp growth and a return to growth in wholesale, which occurred faster than anticipated. Picicci concluded that stabilizing North American wholesale is a key milestone for delivering sustainable long-term growth for the region and the company.

Laurent Vasilescu asked if the full-year AUR outlook implies a return to positive unit velocity and requested quantification of the holiday and Easter timing shifts impacting the Q3 and Q4 revenue outlook.

Answer

CFO Justin Picicci clarified the timing impacts, stating the shifts represent a less than one-point headwind to Q3 revenue and a roughly one-point benefit to Q4. On unit growth, he confirmed that as AUR growth moderates, the company expects the gap between AUR and unit growth to contract, noting they are already driving targeted unit growth in key areas.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about the reinstatement of guidance, specifically the lower expectations for HOKA (mid-teens to low-teens) and UGG (mid-single to low-mid single) growth, inquiring if this reflects conservatism or potential weather impacts on UGG. He also asked for nuances regarding HOKA's back-half growth (Q3 vs. Q4) and the positive reception of spring/summer order books.

Answer

President and CEO Stefano Caroti explained that the guidance anticipates a more cautious consumer due to the full impact of tariffs and price increases, but emphasized the strength and global demand for both brands. CFO Steve Fasching added that the guidance demonstrates confidence while reflecting the impact of price increases on the U.S. consumer. He noted HOKA's back-half growth is still low-teens, better than initially thought in a tariff-imposed environment, and that the company prioritizes long-term sustainable growth over short-term numbers. For HOKA's back half, Steve Fasching expects more pressure in Q3 and more growth in Q4. Stefano Caroti highlighted HOKA's strong U.S. market performance, including growing awareness, clean marketplace, strong sell-throughs, and healthy order books.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about Deckers Brands' reinstated fiscal year 2026 guidance, specifically the lower expectations for HOKA (mid-teens to low-teens) and UGG (mid-single to low/mid-single digits). He asked if this reflected conservatism or potential weather impacts on UGG, and sought nuances on HOKA's back-half growth (Q3 vs. Q4) and the positive reception for spring/summer order books.

Answer

President and CEO Stefano Caroti affirmed the strength of UGG and HOKA brands, noting the guidance anticipates a more cautious U.S. consumer due to tariffs and price increases, while emphasizing long-term brand building. CFO Steve Fasching clarified that the updated guidance reflects current U.S. consumer impacts from price increases and tariffs, acknowledging a slight reduction from initial HOKA expectations but highlighting strong performance despite tariff imposition. He detailed a more cautious Q3 for HOKA with aggressive Q4 growth and confirmed healthy order books for spring/summer 2026.

Laurent Vasilescu of Exane BNP Paribas asked for clarification on HOKA's channel growth, the potential for a reacceleration in U.S. DTC, and the long-term strategy for HOKA's physical retail store footprint. He also asked if the previous full-year framework still holds.

Answer

CFO Steven Fasching stated that while U.S. DTC is expected to improve, international markets will continue to be the primary growth driver. He also affirmed the company's confidence in its previously stated fiscal framework. CEO Stefano Caroti highlighted the retail opportunity, noting the current 48 owned stores and the recent hiring of a new global head of retail to spearhead expansion.

Laurent Vasilescu of Exane BNP Paribas sought clarification on HOKA's Q2 channel growth dynamics, the potential for a US DTC reacceleration, the long-term strategy for HOKA's physical retail footprint, and whether the pre-tariff growth framework remains valid.

Answer

CFO Steven Fasching clarified that while HOKA's growth will be more balanced in Q2, international markets will still be the primary driver, though the US DTC business is expected to improve from its April lows. CEO Stefano Caroti highlighted the retail opportunity with 48 owned stores and a new global head of retail. Fasching confirmed the prior growth framework (mid-teens for HOKA, mid-singles for UGG) still holds, increasing their confidence while awaiting tariff clarity.

Laurent Vasilescu questioned how the mid-teens growth framework for HOKA would break down between DTC and wholesale and whether the Q1 guidance was factored into this outlook. He also asked about the amount of legacy product in the market and the expected trajectory for HOKA's international business mix.

Answer

CFO Steve Fasching clarified that the mid-teens framework assumes a normal environment, which is currently clouded by tariff uncertainty. He confirmed the Q1 guidance is post-tariff but does not include mitigation from future price increases. CEO Stefano Caroti added that legacy Bondi 8 inventory is largely liquidated. While not providing a specific number for the international mix, Fasching expressed encouragement with its continued progress.

Laurent Vasilescu followed up on upcoming HOKA launches, asking about the reception from retail partners. He also inquired about the drivers of Q3 domestic growth and the company's long-term revenue potential beyond the prior $5-6 billion target, asking if a path to $7-8 billion exists.

Answer

CEO Stefano Caroti stated that trade reaction to the upcoming Clifton 10 and Arahi 8 has been very positive, reinforcing the strategy to maintain a pull model. CFO Steve Fasching noted that quarterly growth volatility is due to marketplace management, not a change in demand. Regarding long-term targets, Caroti expressed confidence in the brands' potential, with UGG expanding into new categories and HOKA aiming to be a major performance player. Fasching affirmed this confidence but stressed disciplined management to protect brand equity.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas inquired about the long-term potential for HOKA's international business, its progress in key regions like Europe and China, and the upcoming product pipeline, including the Clifton 10.

Answer

CEO Stefano Caroti stated the international business is 2-3 years behind the U.S. and the long-term goal is a 50/50 split between U.S. and international revenue. He confirmed a robust pipeline, including updates to Bondi in January and Clifton in April. CFO Steven Fasching highlighted the impressive international growth in Q2.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about Levi Strauss & Co.'s European market momentum, competitive promotional activity, and the outlook for European pre-books for the upcoming spring season. He also asked for a detailed breakdown of the Q4 gross margin guidance, specifically regarding the impact of the 53rd week and any positive offsets.

Answer

Harmit Singh, Chief Financial and Growth Officer, explained that Europe's Q3 growth was 3%, accelerating to double-digits post-weather impact, with strong performance in key markets like the UK, Germany, and Italy. He noted that pre-books for spring are up mid-single digits. For Q4 gross margin, Singh attributed the expected 100 basis point contraction to the 53rd week impact (20 bps) and an incremental tariff headwind (80 bps after mitigation), emphasizing that without tariffs, gross margins would have increased.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about Levi Strauss & Co.'s European momentum, including observations on promotional activity and pre-book trends for next spring, and requested a detailed breakdown of the Q4 gross margin guidance, specifically the impact of the 53rd week and any positive offsets.

Answer

Harmit Singh, Chief Financial and Growth Officer, explained that Europe grew 3% in Q3, accelerating to double-digit growth post-weather impacts, with strong performance in key markets like the U.K., Germany, and Italy. He noted mid-single-digit pre-books for spring and an 80 basis point increase in operating margins. For Q4 gross margin, he detailed impacts from the 53rd week (4 points revenue, 20 basis points GM) and incremental tariffs (80 basis points mitigated GM headwind, $0.03 EPS impact), attributing the overall moderation to prudent macro conservatism.

Laurent Vasilescu of Exane BNP Paribas asked for clarification on the organic wholesale revenue outlook, seeking to reconcile the commentary on positive order books with full-year guidance that implies a potential slowdown in the second half.

Answer

EVP & CFO Harmit Singh stated that the company is being prudent and judicious in its wholesale planning as it's a channel they don't directly control. He reiterated that order books remain positive and the channel should be flat to positive for the year, with Q3 likely being stronger than Q4 due to holiday season fill-ins. He also suggested looking at growth on a two-year stack basis for a clearer picture of momentum.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about the potential impact of new tariffs, asking for a sourcing breakdown by country, feedback from suppliers on concessions, and the company's strategy for potential price increases.

Answer

CEO Michelle Gass stated the situation is fluid and a task force is assessing mitigation levers, including accelerating cost structure improvements, collaborating with vendors and customers, and implementing surgical price increases. She noted the brand's strength provides pricing power. CFO Harmit Singh provided specific sourcing figures for the U.S.: approximately 1% from China, 5% from Mexico, and mid-to-high single digits from Vietnam.

Laurent Vasilescu asked for an outlook on distribution costs for 2025, following a significant increase in 2024, and inquired about the company's sourcing exposure to Mexico, particularly for products sold in the United States.

Answer

CFO Harmit Singh clarified that sourcing from Mexico into the U.S. is about 5% and from China is less than 1%, making the tariff risk manageable. He explained that the 21% increase in 2024 distribution costs was roughly half due to an accounting reclassification and half from the parallel costs of transitioning distribution centers. He expects normalized distribution expense growth of 6-7% in 2025, with savings from the DC transition beginning in late 2025.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas asked about the performance of European wholesale, the outlook for Q4 and Spring 2025, and whether management could quantify any revenue timing shifts from Q3 into Q4, particularly related to Mexico.

Answer

CEO Michelle Gass confirmed Europe's strength, with wholesale up 4%, and noted the positive trend is expected to continue, supported by a positive Q4 prebook. CFO Harmit Singh declined to quantify the revenue shift from Mexico, explaining that the company is still actively working with its partner to resolve the technology issues from a cybersecurity breach and that it will take more time to normalize.

Laurent Vasilescu referenced a previous investor day vision for pass revenues to grow from 64% to over 75% of the mix and asked Rob Katz about his current desired mix rate, given the renewed focus on lift tickets. He also asked for more detail on the confidence behind the expectation that December 2025 season-to-date growth rates will remain consistent with September 2025 trends.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz stated that his primary focus is on overall visitation and total lift revenue, acknowledging a potential pullback in pass growth after rapid expansion. He reiterated the goal to convert new visits from all sources into pass holders, as passes offer the best value. Regarding pass sales trends, Rob Katz explained that the company's estimates for future consistency are based on current trends, forecasting models, and considering the shift towards new pass holders in the final selling period, while acknowledging inherent uncertainties.

Laurent Vasilescu referenced the March investor day vision for pass revenues to exceed 75% of the mix and asked Rob Katz where he now wants that mix rate to go, given recent comments on lift tickets. He also sought more detail on the confidence behind the expectation that December 2025 season-to-date growth rates will be comparable to September's.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz stated his primary focus is on overall visitation and lift revenue. He acknowledged a potential pullback in pass growth but emphasized continued opportunities to convert lift ticket guests to passes, as passes offer the best value. The goal remains to drive pass penetration, starting with overall visitation growth. Regarding pass sales trends, Katz explained that estimates incorporate current trends, shifts (more new than renew in later deadlines), and forecasting, providing the company's best assessment despite inherent uncertainties in the selling season.

Laurent Vasilescu from BNP Paribas asked about the company's long-term target for pass revenue as a percentage of total mix, specifically questioning if the previous vision of exceeding 75% still holds, given the current 64% and the renewed focus on lift tickets. He also inquired about the confidence level in the December 2025 season-to-date growth rates remaining consistent with the September trends, as stated in the press release.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz stated that his primary focus is currently on overall visitation and total lift revenue. He acknowledged that while there might be some pullback from rapid pass growth, opportunities like Epic Friend Tickets are designed to convert new visits from all sources into pass holders, as passes offer the best value. He affirmed the commitment to driving pass penetration but emphasized that it starts with overall visitation growth. Regarding pass sales trends, Katz explained that the guidance reflects the company's best assessment based on current trends, forecasting models, and the understanding that the final selling periods are more heavily weighted towards new pass holders, which introduces some inherent uncertainty.

Laurent Vasilescu referenced the March Investor Day vision for pass revenues to exceed 75% of the mix over time and asked, given the recent comments on lift tickets, where CEO Rob Katz now envisions that mix rate going. He also sought more detail on the company's confidence that December 2025 season-to-date growth rates will remain consistent with September's trends.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz stated that his primary focus is on overall visitation to resorts and total lift revenue. He acknowledged some expected pullback after rapid growth but sees continued opportunities to convert lift ticket guests, such as those using Epic Friend Tickets, into pass holders, as passes offer the best value. Regarding the consistency of pass sales trends, Mr. Katz explained that the company's estimate incorporates current trends, shifts towards new pass holders in later deadlines, and forecasting, providing their best assessment based on available data.

Laurent Vasilescu asked for details on the growth drivers for non-pass lift revenue, particularly on the East Coast. He also requested an explanation for the divergent performance in ancillary businesses, with rental revenue down while dining and ski school were up.

Answer

CFO Angela Korch attributed the 17.5% increase in non-pass lift revenue primarily to improved conditions and strong response at Eastern U.S. resorts. CEO Kirsten Lynch explained that while destination guest ancillary spending is strong, the overall results are impacted by a higher mix of local visitors, which particularly affects the competitive rental business as locals are more likely to own gear.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas asked for details on the growth of the Epic Day Pass, including its drivers and whether it indicated a trade-down from consumers. He also inquired about the financial impact and timing of the company's $100 million resource efficiency transformation plan.

Answer

CEO Kirsten Lynch stated that the majority of renewing pass holders bought the same pass as last year, with no unusual trade-down activity. She noted Epic Day Pass growth is positive as it attracts new guests who can be upgraded over time. CFO Angela Korch explained the transformation plan's savings ($27M this year, growing to $67M next year) will primarily appear in labor costs within G&A and mountain/lodging operations, with updates on milestones to be provided as they are achieved.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas asked for context on the severe weather in Australia that led to a 22% drop in Epic Australia Pass sales and whether this could be a leading indicator for the U.S. He also questioned the company's capital allocation strategy, particularly the dividend payout ratio.

Answer

CEO Kirsten Lynch described the Australian weather as the "worst season in decades," following a record season the prior year. She differentiated it from North America by noting Australia is more dependent on local visitation with fewer alternative resort options. CFO Angela Korch addressed capital allocation, stating the dividend is a primary return method based on free cash flow generation, not a specific payout ratio, and that the balance sheet remains strong for investments, M&A, and opportunistic share repurchases.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas S.A. asked for an analysis of the Outdoor Performance segment's implied 20% H2 growth, its long-term margin potential, and confirmation on the growth outlook for winter goods.

Answer

CFO Andrew Page confirmed that winter sports equipment is expected to grow in the low single digits. He stated the segment's 20% implied H2 growth is expected to be evenly paced between Q3 and Q4. On margins, he noted the Q2 improvement was driven by gross margin and suggested that long-term, the segment's operating margin could approach the mid-teens, stating 'you're in the ZIP code' and promising more detail at the upcoming Investor Day.

Laurent Vasilescu asked for clarification on Salomon's growth potential, questioning if soft goods could grow 20% and if the sneaker business could double in five years. He also asked about the moving parts in the full-year gross margin guidance, particularly regarding tariffs.

Answer

CFO Andrew Page did not provide a specific long-term growth target for Salomon but emphasized the large market opportunity and the significant margin accretion seen in the Outdoor Performance segment. Regarding tariffs, he clarified that the current guidance assumes a negligible impact from existing tariffs due to mitigation, and that the previously mentioned 100 basis point drag was a hypothetical based on a much higher tariff scenario.

Laurent Vasilescu asked for clarification on Salomon's growth, seeking to confirm if guidance implies over 20% growth for soft goods and questioning if sneaker sales could double in five years. He also asked for details on the moving parts within the gross margin guidance, particularly regarding tariffs.

Answer

CFO Andrew Page did not provide a specific long-term growth target for Salomon but emphasized the significant market opportunity and the positive margin impact from its soft goods growth. He clarified that the current guidance assumes negligible tariff impact after mitigation, and the previously mentioned 100 basis point drag was a hypothetical for a much higher tariff scenario.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas asked about the growth outlook for the Americas and EMEA regions and inquired about further opportunities to reduce finance costs and the tax rate following the recent equity offering.

Answer

CFO Andrew Page and CEO Jie Zheng responded, confirming expectations for continued positive growth in all regions, with Zheng highlighting a plan to accelerate Salomon's soft goods business in EMEA. Page stated that paying down the remaining senior secured notes is a high-return use of cash and reiterated the goal of lowering the effective tax rate from the low 30s toward the statutory rate of approximately 27%.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about the vision of the newly appointed Salomon CEO and the potential for Salomon's soft goods business to grow its share. He also questioned the high effective tax rate for FY25 and its potential trajectory over time.

Answer

CEO Jie Zheng praised the new Salomon CEO's experience and highlighted a four-pillar strategy focused on footwear, Europe, North America, and digital. CFO Andrew Page addressed the tax rate, explaining that the guided ~37% for 2025 is a significant improvement from the ~50% exit rate in H2 2024. He expects the rate to continue declining toward a more normalized level in the coming years.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas asked for the specific Helly Hansen revenue contribution expected in the third quarter to calculate the organic growth rate. He also inquired if Kontoor saw any order shifts from Q3 into Q2 ahead of tariffs, and asked about the net impact of recent foreign exchange rate movements on the full-year guidance.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Global Head of Operations, Joe Alkire, estimated the Helly Hansen Q3 revenue contribution to be in the range of $175 million. He stated that the company did not see a meaningful timing shift of orders into Q2, as sales trends remained strong into July. Regarding FX, Alkire explained that the net impact is not material, as positive translation effects from Helly Hansen are offset by negative transaction effects related to the Mexican peso, though currency was a partial driver of the raised Helly outlook.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas questioned the confidence in H2 organic growth after a lowered H1 outlook, asked about the 53rd-week impact, and sought clarification on Helly Hansen's projected Q2 EPS loss.

Answer

CEO Scott Baxter cited product momentum, brand strength, and the Helly acquisition as drivers of confidence. CFO Joseph Alkire noted H2 growth is supported by high-visibility items like new programs and the 53rd week, which has a minimal full-year impact. Alkire explicitly warned against extrapolating the Q2 EPS loss for Helly, stating it reflects a historically slow quarter and timing noise from the deal's closing.

Lea Yang, on behalf of Laurent Vasilescu, asked for details on the drivers behind the year-to-date gross margin adjustments and requested preliminary thoughts on the expected costs and reinvestment levels associated with Project Jeanius.

Answer

CFO Joseph Alkire attributed the year-to-date gross margin adjustments to the company's ongoing supply chain transition. Regarding Project Jeanius, he deferred providing specific cost figures until the February call but stated that the financial returns from the program are expected to be a multiple of the one-time costs required for its implementation.

Laurent Vasilescu of Exane BNP Paribas questioned the outlook for Saucony's Spring 2026 orders and its distribution potential. He also asked why Merrell's growth might decelerate despite strong momentum and inquired about the outlook for operating cash flow and year-end leverage.

Answer

CEO Christopher Hufnagel emphasized Saucony's broad-based momentum and long-term potential without commenting on specific future orders. For Merrell, he highlighted its consistent market share gains and product innovation. CFO Taryn Miller reiterated the capital allocation priorities of investing in the business and paying down debt, noting that bank-defined leverage was down to 2.9x from 3.9x a year ago.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about the implications of withdrawing full-year guidance on the outlook for Saucony and Merrell, given the strong order book. He also requested clarification on a potential revenue timing shift and the nature of the $30 million estimated tariff impact.

Answer

CEO Christopher Hufnagel confirmed that while the order book and brand momentum remain strong, the level of uncertainty around trade policy and consumer sentiment necessitated withdrawing full-year guidance. CFO Taryn Miller clarified the $30 million tariff impact is an unmitigated gross margin effect and confirmed no new revenue shifts occurred beyond what was previously disclosed.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about the full-year outlook for the Saucony and Merrell brands, given the strong order book, despite the withdrawal of annual guidance. He also inquired about any revenue timing shifts in the Work Group and sought clarification on the $30 million tariff impact.

Answer

CEO Christopher Hufnagel confirmed that momentum in the business has not materially changed and the order book supports the high end of their previous outlook, but macro uncertainty led to withdrawing full-year guidance. CFO Taryn Miller clarified there were no new revenue shifts for the Work Group and stated the $30 million tariff impact is a pre-mitigation estimate on gross margin profit, declining to provide quarterly phasing.

Laurent Vasilescu asked for the timeframe of the long-term mid-teens operating margin goal and whether it would be achieved via divestitures or SG&A leverage. He also requested clarification on a Q1 to Q4 revenue shift for the Work Group, gross margin evolution, and the interest expense guidance.

Answer

CFO Taryn Miller explained it was too early to set a date for the mid-teen profit margin goal but highlighted the 440 basis point improvement over two years. CEO Chris Hufnagel noted 2025 includes a step-up in brand investment. Miller quantified the Work Group revenue shift at approximately $7 million, attributed gross margin gains to cost savings and full-price selling, and guided 2025 interest expense to $25-$30 million.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about the growth momentum for Merrell and Saucony heading into 2025, particularly the reception from key retail partners. He also asked about the long-term feasibility of achieving a 10% operating margin and the company's current sourcing exposure to China.

Answer

CEO Christopher Hufnagel confirmed that a product and distribution reset for Merrell and Saucony, including new leadership and thoughtful expansion into new accounts, is driving momentum for 2025. He also noted that sourcing from China is now in the mid-teens, down from over 40%. CFO Taryn Miller added that while Q4 operating margins are approaching 9%, she would not guide for 2025 but expressed encouragement with the current trajectory.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about the drivers of the Q2 2025 outperformance versus initial guidance, the reasons for the full-year revenue guidance reduction, the significant pressure on the U.S. direct-to-consumer (DTC) e-commerce business, and the implied gross margin impact from tariffs in Q3.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jim Swanson confirmed that Q2 results were boosted by a $30 million wholesale shipment timing shift, with earlier fall shipments pulled into Q2 to mitigate tariff risks. He attributed the full-year guidance cut to softness in the U.S. business, partially offset by international strength. Chairman, President & CEO Tim Boyle addressed the U.S. DTC weakness by highlighting an upcoming comprehensive refresh of the columbia.com site. Swanson added that the Q3 gross margin contraction of roughly 150 bps is largely due to a $15-20 million tariff impact.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about the status of the fall order book, potential market share gains from competitors' China exposure, the financial timing of the $40-$45 million tariff impact, and the possibility of price increases for Spring 2026.

Answer

CEO Tim Boyle acknowledged consumer uncertainty but highlighted a significant opportunity to gain market share from smaller brands and private labels heavily reliant on China. He noted that Spring 2026 pricing strategies are still being formulated. CFO Jim Swanson confirmed the fall order book is stable with no meaningful cancellations and clarified that the tariff costs will primarily impact the second half of the year, with some potential to extend into 2026. For Q2, he expects international business to remain healthy while the U.S. DTC business continues to see some slowness.

Laurent Vasilescu from BNP Paribas asked for the reasons behind the projected 1-3% revenue decline in Q1 2025 and sought a breakdown of the DTC growth outlook, considering the headwind from store closures and FX. He also inquired about the expected gross margin cadence and other drivers of SG&A pressure.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jim Swanson attributed the Q1 revenue outlook to lapping a cold winter, a shift in wholesale shipment timing, and reduced promotional activity on columbia.com. He clarified the 3-point headwind was a combination of temp store closures and FX. Swanson noted Q2 would see stronger gross margin expansion. He confirmed incentive compensation and DTC investments are other SG&A pressures, adding that the company is reviewing its cost structure for more savings.

Laurent Vasilescu asked for more detail on the projected mid-single-digit wholesale growth for the first half of 2025, questioning if it's driven by easy comparisons, pricing, or restocking, and how growth is balanced across regions. He also inquired about the target for demand creation spend under the "Accelerate" plan and the progress on the $90 million cost savings program for 2024.

Answer

CEO Tim Boyle stated that H1 2025 growth will be more balanced, with strong improvement in the U.S. business alongside continued strength in international markets. CFO Jim Swanson added that pricing has been largely held flat for the season. Regarding margins, Boyle noted marketing spend will increase but be more efficient, while Swanson confirmed they are on track for the high end of the $75-$90 million cost savings target for the year, driven by inventory and supply chain optimization.

Laurent Vasilescu questioned the drivers behind the first-quarter free cash flow decline and the path to achieving the full-year target. He also asked about the increase in net debt and the leverage outlook for the fiscal year.

Answer

EVP & CFO Paul Vogel explained that the Q1 free cash flow was impacted by working capital timing but reaffirmed the full-year guidance for year-over-year growth. He stated that leverage is expected to decline from 4.1x at year-end and that the company is confident in its ability to pay off its upcoming €500 million maturity.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about the company's plan for the EUR 500 million note due in March 2026 and questioned whether management's view on the current brand portfolio has changed amid the evolving environment.

Answer

EVP and CFO Paul Vogel stated the company expects to pay down the upcoming debt maturity using free cash flow and its revolver. President and CEO Bracken Darrell affirmed that the company remains happy with its current brand portfolio, as it aligns with the strategy, but will continue annual reviews and exit non-core assets if necessary.

Laurent Vasilescu sought clarification on whether the forward-looking revenue trajectory was on a constant currency basis and asked about the drivers behind the Q4 SG&A and gross margin guidance.

Answer

President and CEO Bracken Darrell confirmed the forward-looking commentary is on a constant currency basis. EVP and CFO Paul Vogel explained that Q4 gross margin is expected to be up significantly due to lower product costs, fewer promotions, and favorable comps. The slight increase in SG&A is driven by marketing investments and bonus accruals.

Laurent Vasilescu asked about the overall health of the wholesale business, inventory levels heading into the holidays, and for a quarterly breakdown of the second-half free cash flow guidance.

Answer

CEO Bracken Darrell expressed confidence in the wholesale business's recovery, especially with key accounts, and noted that channel inventories are in a good position. CFO Paul Vogel declined to provide quarterly free cash flow guidance due to variability but reaffirmed the full-year target, stating core fundamentals are in line with expectations.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas asked about the status of the fall order book amid tariff uncertainty, the sustainability of gross margin drivers, and the reasons behind the strong Q1 growth forecast for the EMEA region.

Answer

CFO David Bergman declined to comment on the fall order book due to tariff volatility but noted positive product feedback and no key partner cancellations. He stated that the significant gross margin benefits from supply chain and reduced discounting seen in FY25 would be smaller in FY26. CEO Kevin Plank attributed the strong EMEA momentum to excellent leadership, brand authentication in European football, a growing cultural following, and strong retailer relationships, positioning the region as a model for success.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about retailer reception to new footwear, asked for the revenue contribution from Kohl's, and questioned if there were any limitations to reaching a 50% gross margin over time.

Answer

CEO Kevin Plank reported an exciting reception for new footwear from key retailers and highlighted the upcoming SlipSpeed Echo launch and untapped potential in the Curry Brand. CFO David Bergman declined to provide a specific revenue percentage for Kohl's but stated no single account is close to 10% of sales. He affirmed there is a clear roadmap to a 50% gross margin, driven by better costing, lower discounts, and regional mix, despite a potential headwind from faster footwear growth.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas sought confirmation on full-year channel guidance, asked about lessons from the e-commerce promotional pullback, and requested a bridge for the incremental gross margin headwinds.

Answer

CFO Dave Bergman confirmed guidance for wholesale to be down 10-12% and DTC down ~10%, driven by e-commerce. CEO Kevin Plank added that reducing e-commerce promotions not only boosted their margins but also improved their standing on partner site algorithms. Bergman identified emerging ocean freight costs and foreign currency as the largest new headwinds offsetting the Q1 gross margin beat, with channel mix being a smaller factor.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas asked for more detail on which markets are experiencing notable volatility compared to the original guidance. He also sought clarification on the prioritization and implementation speed of the three tariff mitigation levers (cost sharing, sourcing, pricing) and inquired about any signs of anti-American sentiment affecting the brand.

Answer

Executive John Vandemore explained that consumer demand for Skechers remains robust globally, with the main uncertainty concentrated in the U.S. and China for different reasons. He and David Weinberg (Executive) clarified that the three mitigation levers are not ranked by importance and are all being actively pursued with flexibility. Vandemore also stated there is no evidence of anti-Americanism, as Skechers is perceived as a local, international brand in many markets.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas asked about the implied operating margin decline in the 2025 guidance, U.S. wholesale growth expectations, and the specific FX impact on EPS.

Answer

John Vandemore (executive) clarified that the implied margin decline seemed high and the company's objective is to sustain its double-digit operating margin, though FX and China are headwinds. He projected U.S. wholesale would normalize towards mid-single-digit growth after a phenomenal 2024. Vandemore estimated the forward FX impact on EPS to be between $0.15 and $0.20, noting the Q4 hit was due to broad, rapid strengthening of the U.S. dollar. David Weinberg (executive) added that balance sheet FX impacts are not recurring.

Laurent Vasilescu asked what offset the muted China expectations to allow for a top-line guidance raise. He also questioned the impact of in-transit inventory on Q4 and the drivers behind the 80 bps gross margin decline.

Answer

CFO John Vandemore attributed the guidance raise to robust performance in domestic and international markets outside of China. He explained the gross margin dip was expected, influenced by promotional activity in markets like China and higher freight costs. For Q4, he guided gross margin to be relatively flat year-over-year. The inventory increase was primarily due to lower-than-expected sales in China and elevated in-transit goods for EMEA.

Laurent Vasilescu inquired about the U.S. DTC trends, specifically the dichotomy between weaker foot traffic and strong e-commerce, the potential magnitude of the sales shift from Q2 to Q3, and the gross margin outlook for the second half.

Answer

CFO John Vandemore acknowledged the odd quarter with slower brick-and-mortar traffic but strong e-commerce performance, noting the tough prior-year comparison of 29% growth. He stated it's difficult to quantify the exact sales shift from Q2 to Q3 but confirmed a material amount of orders moved into the second half due to supply chain delays. Regarding gross margins, he indicated that while Q2 benefited more than expected from freight and mix, the benefit is expected to be smaller in the back half of the year, and they are monitoring rising freight rates.

Asked about the FX impact embedded in the 2025 guidance, the expected revenue contribution from RockyMounts, the drivers of gross margin improvement, and the size of the PIEPS business.

Answer

The company quantified the FX headwind at approximately $8 million for the full year. They noted RockyMounts' historical revenue was small ($4-5M) and are conservative about its 2025 contribution despite growth plans. Gross margin expansion of 350-450 bps in Outdoor and maintaining ~40% in Adventure are key drivers. The size of the PIEPS business was not disclosed.

Laurent Vasilescu from BNP Paribas asked about the foreign exchange headwind embedded in the 2025 revenue guidance, the expected revenue contribution from the newly acquired RockyMounts, the bridge from gross margin to EBITDA margin, and the relative size of the PIEPS brand, which is under strategic review.

Answer

CFO Michael J. Yates quantified the full-year FX headwind at approximately $8 million, split evenly between the Outdoor and Adventure segments. He noted RockyMounts historically generated $4-5 million in annual revenue but sees significant growth opportunities. For margins, Yates pointed to a 350-450 basis point improvement in Outdoor's gross margin. Executive Warren Kanders addressed the PIEPS question, stating the company has not disclosed its size but will issue a press release if a transaction occurs.

Sought clarification on the full-year guidance reduction, the status of the long-term 2025 financial targets, and the trajectory for gross margins in Q4 and beyond.

Answer

The company clarified that the top-line guidance cut of $12 million is entirely from the Adventure segment, which is tracking behind plan. The Outdoor segment is on track with its strategic revenue reduction focused on improving profitability. The 2025 outlook will be updated on the next call. For Q4, gross margins are expected to be strong, between 39% and 40% for both segments.

Laurent Vasilescu of BNP Paribas S.A. sought clarification on the full-year guidance reduction, an update on the 2025 long-term financial targets from Investor Day, and the outlook for gross margins in Q4 and beyond.

Answer

CFO Michael J. Yates clarified the $12 million revenue guidance cut stems entirely from the Adventure segment, which is now expected to generate $78 million instead of $90 million. He explained that the Outdoor segment is tracking to its plan, but the Adventure segment is behind the 2025 roadmap presented in March. For Q4, Yates expects gross margins to be between 39% and 40% for both segments.