Lawson Winder

Lawson Winder inquired about the identity of the new strategic OEM customer, specifically if it was a U.S.-based auto OEM, and asked for an update on the 10X facility timeline, questioning if its development could be accelerated beyond the original 2029 target.

Answer

CFO Ryan Corbett stated that the new customer is one of America's leading technology companies, emphasizing MP Materials' role as a solutions provider for companies diversifying their supply chains away from China. CEO James Litinsky confirmed that the 10X project is being pursued with urgency, aiming for commissioning in 2028, and the team is focused on accelerating the timeline as much as possible.

Lawson Winder asked about the specific type of OEM involved in a new strategic agreement and inquired if the 10X facility timeline could be accelerated beyond the original 2029 target.

Answer

CFO Ryan Corbett clarified that the OEM is one of America's leading technology companies, emphasizing MP Materials' role as a solutions provider for supply chain diversification. CEO James Litinsky stated that the 10X project is being treated as a 'zero-based days project' with aggressive execution to bring it online as quickly as possible, with commissioning expected in 2028.

Lawson Winder inquired about the approximate split of dysprosium and terbium in the 200 metric tons of annual heavy rare earth production. He also asked about the timeline for producing other rare earth metals of interest to the Department of Defense, beyond samarium, and if the DoD has set any specific deadlines. Additionally, he sought a timeline for the remaining $160 million in Apple prepayments, following the $40 million received in Q3.

Answer

Michael Rosenthal (Chief Operating Officer) indicated that the general ratio of dysprosium to terbium in their ore body is about 3:1, though third-party feedstocks might alter this mix. He confirmed a commitment to produce samarium oxide by 2028 and mentioned gadolinium as a logical next product around the same timeframe, with ongoing discussions for other materials with domestic and allied partners. Ryan Corbett (Chief Financial Officer) explained that Apple prepayments are tied to operational milestones, with the next payment of relative scale expected in Q4 2025, and further payments aligning with initial magnet volumes targeting mid-2027 and recycling soon after.

Lawson Winder inquired about the approximate split of dysprosium and terbium within the 200 kilotons of annual heavy rare earth production. He also asked about the timeline for producing other rare earth metals, such as samarium, that are of particular interest to the Department of Defense (DoD), and if the DoD has set any deadlines. Additionally, he sought clarification on the timeline for the remaining $160 million of Apple's $200 million prepayment, following the $40 million received in Q3.

Answer

Michael Rosenthal (Founder and COO) stated that the general ratio of dysprosium to terbium in their ore body is about 3 to 1, with potential variations from third-party feedstocks. He confirmed a commitment to produce samarium oxide by 2028 and mentioned gadolinium as a logical next step around the same timeframe, with ongoing discussions for other materials. Ryan Corbett (Founder and CFO) indicated that prepayments are tied to operational milestones, with the next payment of relative scale expected in Q4, continuing on schedule as they target mid-2027 for initial magnet volumes and subsequent recycling.

Lawson Winder sought clarity on the assumptions underlying the $650 million minimum EBITDA guidance, particularly regarding oxide sales to China, and asked if the new hydrochloric acid facility could lower the long-term marginal cost target.

Answer

CFO Ryan Corbett confirmed the guidance excludes any sales to China and is based on achieving targeted 6,000-ton NDPR throughput, the minimum contracted EBITDA from the DoD for the 10x facility, and conservative assumptions for the Independence plant. He also clarified the HCL facility is the same as the chlor-alkali project, which is an investment in redundancy and resiliency, not necessarily a change to the overall cost target.

Lawson Winder asked about potential CapEx increases due to Red Chris and Merian projects, and the status of discussions with Barrick regarding Four Mile and the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture.

Answer

Natascha Viljoen, President and CEO, Newmont, stated that Red Chris updates are expected in the second half of the year, and capital guidance allows for disciplined allocation to value-accretive projects. She added that discussions with Barrick have focused on improving Nevada Gold Mines' performance.

Lawson Winder asked about Newmont's capital expenditure (CapEx) outlook, specifically inquiring if potential upside from Red Chris and Merian projects could lead to higher CapEx than currently guided. He also questioned the status of discussions with JV partner Barrick regarding the Four Mile project and its potential integration into Nevada Gold Mines.

Answer

Natascha Viljoen, President and CEO of Newmont, confirmed that the Red Chris project update is expected in the second half of the year. She reiterated the average capital guidance ($1.1 billion sustaining, $1.3 billion development) and emphasized a disciplined approach to allocating capital for value-accretive projects, noting Merian as a future opportunity. Regarding Nevada Gold Mines, Ms. Viljoen stated that current discussions with Barrick are primarily focused on improving the joint venture's performance.

Lawson Winder asked about Newmont's approach to capital allocation, specifically regarding asset or company acquisition opportunities and growth investments, given the strong balance sheet and existing capital return priorities. He also inquired about the investment options within Nevada Gold Mines, particularly Fourmile and Goldrush, and how Fourmile would be considered for capital allocation.

Answer

Natascha Viljoen, President and COO of Newmont Corporation, reiterated that the best investment for Newmont is in its own assets and share buybacks, maintaining a disciplined approach within its capital allocation framework. She stated that acquisitions would only be considered if they are value-accretive. Regarding Nevada Gold Mines, Ms. Viljoen confirmed Goldrush is already part of the portfolio. For Fourmile, she expressed excitement about the opportunity but stated Newmont is awaiting more information, specifically Barrick's feasibility study, to make an informed decision, and it would compete for capital against other projects.

Lawson Winder asked about Newmont's capital allocation strategy, specifically if the company would consider asset or company acquisition opportunities given its strong balance sheet and current capital returns. He also inquired about investment options within Nevada Gold Mines, such as Fourmile and Goldrush, asking if one is preferred and how Fourmile would compete for capital.

Answer

Natascha Viljoen, President and COO, reiterated that Newmont's primary investment focus is on its own assets and share buybacks, maintaining a disciplined approach to ensure investments are value-accretive. Regarding Nevada Gold Mines, Ms. Viljoen confirmed that Goldrush is already included in the current capital forecast. For Fourmile, she expressed excitement about the opportunity and stated that Newmont is awaiting more information from Barrick (the feasibility study) to make an informed decision, emphasizing that it would compete for capital against other projects in the portfolio.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America inquired about Newmont's capital allocation priorities, specifically asking about the company's appetite for acquisitions and the strategic view on copper for M&A.

Answer

President and CEO Tom Palmer stated unequivocally that Newmont's focus is internal and the best use of capital is repurchasing its own stock. He clarified that while copper is a strategic metal, future exposure will come from the company's organic project pipeline, such as the Red Chris Block Cave, not from external acquisitions.

Lawson Winder requested an update on the Ahafo North project's progress in 2025, how it's tracking against expectations, and whether the 2026 run-rate production target is achievable. He also asked for guidance on a long-term sustainable production level for the Lihir asset.

Answer

Executive Tom Palmer expressed confidence in the Ahafo North ramp-up, citing the team's experience with the same flowsheet at other mines. COO Natascha Viljoen detailed project milestones, including the highway diversion and mill installation, stating the project is tracking well for first gold in H2 2025. Regarding Lihir, Palmer explained it's in a lower-grade phase for the next couple of years, but expects a 30% production increase from 2024 levels kicking in around 2028 after the current stripping campaign is complete.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America asked about the rationale for providing only one-year guidance and whether this would be the new standard. He also questioned if the current dividend is now benchmarked against the new $1,700/oz reserve price instead of the previous $1,400/oz.

Answer

CEO Tom Palmer responded that after a major transformation, the company is deliberately focusing on stabilizing the business and delivering on high-confidence 2025 commitments. He also clarified that the dividend is decoupled from reserve price assumptions, stating the common dividend is '$1 a share, full stop.'

Lawson Winder from Bank of America asked about capital allocation, specifically if recent calls from PNG's Prime Minister to advance the Wafi-Golpu project signal it is taking precedence in the portfolio. He also asked for quantification of realized labor inflation versus the budgeted 4%.

Answer

Executive Tom Palmer affirmed that while work on Wafi-Golpu is progressing, any project must compete for capital and the company's focus is on its three projects currently in execution. On inflation, he clarified the 4% rate applies to direct employees (half of labor costs), while the other half, contracted services, is experiencing higher escalation which is now factored into the 2025 outlook.

Lawson Winder with Bank of America inquired about Agnico Eagle's stance on M&A, specifically asking if the company would tender its shares to the offer on Foran, and generally about Agnico's M&A strategy, including jurisdictional focus and urgency, given the company's strong internal growth potential.

Answer

President and CEO Ammar Al-Joundi stated that decisions regarding M&A activity are up to individual shareholders and not something he would discuss. He further explained that M&A is a capital allocation decision driven by creating value per share, emphasizing Agnico's knowledge advantage in identifying opportunities and its willingness to act when M&A creates value per share, rather than just increasing size.

Lawson Winder asked about Agnico Eagle's M&A strategy, specifically regarding tendering shares for Floran and the company's general view on M&A activity, including jurisdictional preferences and urgency, given the existing growth potential.

Answer

Ammar Al-Joundi, President and CEO, stated that decisions on M&A activity are up to shareholders and he would not discuss specific tenders. He emphasized that M&A, like other capital allocation decisions, must create value per share for owners, leveraging Agnico's knowledge advantage and focusing on exploration upside rather than just growth in size.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities inquired about the strategy of buying back royalties, particularly at Canadian Malartic, to control costs. He also asked about the company's appetite for investing its high gold profits into base metals beyond the existing San Nicolas project.

Answer

CEO Ammar Al-Joundi stated that while they constantly evaluate royalty buybacks, any deal must be disciplined and value-accretive for shareholders. He confirmed the Malartic ore body is expanding, giving them an information advantage. Regarding base metals, he emphasized that Agnico Eagle remains gold-centric and will only pursue other metals if the opportunities offer high returns in favorable jurisdictions.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities sought more detail on the strategy to fill the 10,000-15,000 tonnes per day of spare capacity at the Malartic mill, asking about the potential for a third shaft at Odyssey or an expansion at Wasamac. He also asked for the estimated trucking distance and cost from Wasamac to Malartic.

Answer

Dominique Girard, SVP, detailed how current projects could fill the mill to 45,000 tpd, leaving the spare capacity. He confirmed there is no definite plan for the remainder but that it could come from regional discoveries, Marban expansion, or a third Odyssey shaft. He stated the Wasamac trucking distance is 100 km. CEO Ammar Al-Joundi added that the company is actively focused on filling this valuable capacity, including considering toll milling agreements.

Lawson Winder asked about the capital return strategy, specifically a potential shift from buybacks to a higher dividend, inquired about current labor cost and availability trends, and requested an early outlook on year-end reserve replacement.

Answer

CFO James Porter indicated the current dividend payout of 36% is comfortable, with total returns near 50% of free cash flow. Dominique Girard (executive) and Natasha Nella Vaz (executive) noted that labor markets are stabilizing with normal wage inflation expected, while some input costs are decreasing. Guy Gosselin (executive) stated it's early for a definitive forecast but expects to replace mined reserves, likely on a relatively flat basis compared to the prior year's large project-driven additions.

Lawson Winder asked about the Westinghouse EBITDA guidance, noting the 5% year-over-year increase at the midpoint was below the prior 6%-10% range, and sought clarification on the contributing factors. He also inquired about the lack of contracting in the conversion market despite an obvious global shortage, and if Port Hope is nearing its expanded capacity run rate.

Answer

Grant Isaac, President and Chief Operating Officer, explained that while interest in restarting, extending, and uprating existing reactors (core business) has increased, regulatory processes are taking longer, delaying immediate orders. Heidi Shockey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, added that new build business is lumpy, affecting linear growth. For conversion, Mr. Isaac emphasized that Cameco is prioritizing longer-tenor contracts (10-15 years) at historic high prices to maximize value before new capacity enters the market, which could exert downward price pressure.

Lawson Winder inquired about the Westinghouse EBITDA guidance for 2026, noting that its midpoint was 1% below the prior 6%-10% growth range, and asked for the primary reason for this slight deviation. He also sought insights into the conversion markets, specifically why there was a lack of contracting despite an obvious global shortage, and if Cameco is nearing run rate for expanded capacity at Port Hope.

Answer

Grant Isaac, President and Chief Operating Officer, explained that the core business drivers for Westinghouse, such as reactor restarts, life extensions, and uprates, are still strong but regulatory approvals and processes are taking longer than expected, pushing some immediate work into the future. Heidi Shockey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, added that the new build business is inherently lumpy, causing year-to-year fluctuations in the five-year guidance. For conversion, Isaac stated that while the market is tight and prices are historic, Cameco is prioritizing longer contract tenors (10-15 years) to maximize value and protect against future downward pressure from new capacity entering the market. He confirmed that Cameco aims to increase production at Port Hope to capture demand.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America asked for elaboration on the potential risks to McArthur River's production guidance and inquired about the process and potential structure of GLE's Department of Energy (DOE) funding.

Answer

President & CEO Tim Gitzel explained that the risks at McArthur River relate to ground freezing in new mining areas, labor availability, and commissioning new equipment, but reiterated that guidance remains unchanged. Executive VP & CFO Grant Isaac stated that regarding GLE, the DOE has not made final decisions, and Cameco is advocating for direct support like a cost-share model rather than a 'buyer of last resort' program to avoid creating a market overhang.

Lawson Winder asked for color on the pricing of new fixed-price contracts and whether the portfolio was shifting in that direction. He also questioned the extent of transportation and logistics challenges facing the industry and Cameco's supply chain.

Answer

CFO Grant Isaac clarified that Cameco remains disciplined, requiring market-related exposure with floors and ceilings that reflect the future structural supply gap, not recent spot market softness. He stated they are not shifting strategy based on temporary market conditions. On logistics, Isaac acknowledged that transportation is a growing risk for the industry but emphasized that Cameco's long-lead-time planning ensures reliability, stating the company has never missed a delivery and never will.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America asked if high conversion prices should incentivize Cameco to expand its Port Hope facility or support a restart of the Springfield's facility. He also questioned the 2025 Westinghouse guidance, asking if it includes purchase price accounting impacts and what factors differentiate the 6% to 10% EBITDA growth range, as well as what could drive growth beyond that range.

Answer

Executive VP and CFO Grant Isaac stated that restarting conversion capacity requires clear market access rules (i.e., certainty on Russian exclusion) and long-term contracts, not just a high spot price. For Westinghouse, Senior VP and Deputy CFO Heidi Shockey clarified that while inventory-related purchase accounting impacts are mostly finished, higher D&A will continue. Grant Isaac explained the 6% growth reflects the core business, while 10% begins to factor in early-stage new build engineering work. He noted that final investment decisions on new builds, Korean collaborations, and new technologies like AP300 would all represent upside to the current guidance.

Lawson Winder asked about the price disconnect between utilities and suppliers, questioning if utilities are making a mistake by waiting for lower prices, and also inquired about current cost inflation trends.

Answer

Executive VP and CFO Grant Isaac dismissed survey data, focusing on strong fundamentals and significant off-market contracting activity. He stated higher prices are inevitable to fill the supply gap. On costs, he noted that while inflation is a factor, Cameco's 'perfectly timed' investments in automation at McArthur/Key Lake have helped bend their cost curve.

Lawson Winder inquired about the longer-term sourcing strategy for LEU feed for HALEU, how much LEU production will be captive to HALEU, how much of the 3.5 million SWU will be available for primary LEU demand, and options if LEU capacity is insufficient for HALEU feed post-2028 Russian supply cutoff.

Answer

Amir Vexler, President and CEO, stated the intention to maximize facility capacity, progressively expand based on customer commitments, and optimize by providing both LEU and HALEU enrichment. He noted that contractual mechanisms exist for customers to source LEU feed from other suppliers if needed, but emphasized the goal to optimize both.

Lawson Winder inquired about Centrus Energy's longer-term sourcing strategy for LEU feed for HALEU production, how much LEU capacity will be captive to HALEU versus available for primary LEU demand, and options if LEU capacity is insufficient after the 2028 Russian supply cutoff.

Answer

Amir Vexler, President and CEO, stated that Centrus's strategy is to maximize the capacity of its facility for both LEU and HALEU, building progressively based on customer commitments. He indicated an intention to optimize SWUs by providing both LEU and HALEU in contracts. While foreseeing tightness, he noted that contractual mechanisms exist for customers or Centrus to utilize other suppliers for feed if needed, but the overall goal is to optimize and maximize both capacities due to economies of scale.

Lawson Winder asked if Cleveland-Cliffs had completed its due diligence on POSCO, following POSCO's ongoing due diligence on Cliffs. He also inquired about the potential size and timeline of the opportunity to replace aluminum with steel in automotive applications.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Lourenco Goncalves confirmed that Cliffs has completed its due diligence, noting that POSCO initiated the partnership discussions, suggesting their greater need for Cliffs. He reiterated that any deal must be accretive to Cliffs' shareholders and that Cliffs can help POSCO meet U.S. 'melted and poured' trade requirements. Regarding aluminum replacement, Lourenco Goncalves highlighted that OEMs are now more receptive due to aluminum supply chain weaknesses. Cliffs has successfully demonstrated steel stamping using existing aluminum forming equipment with three OEMs, securing production-scale orders. The potential is significant, mirroring the volume of aluminum currently used in vehicles, with timing dependent on OEMs.

Lawson Winder inquired about the ongoing strategic partnership with POSCO, specifically asking if Cleveland-Cliffs had completed its due diligence on POSCO. He also asked for a quantification of the opportunity to replace aluminum with steel in terms of tonnages and the expected timeline for achieving those volumes.

Answer

CEO Lourenco Goncalves confirmed that Cliffs had completed its due diligence on POSCO, noting that POSCO initiated the partnership, indicating their significant need for Cliffs to meet U.S. trade and origin requirements. He reiterated that any deal must be accretive to Cliffs' shareholders. Regarding the aluminum replacement opportunity, Lourenco highlighted the weakness of the aluminum supply chain (e.g., fire events, reliance on Canadian imports) as a key driver. He stated that Cliffs has successfully demonstrated to three different OEMs that its steel can be stamped using existing aluminum forming equipment, and production-scale orders are now being received. He indicated the potential is tied to the total volume of aluminum currently utilized, particularly in best-selling vehicles, but the timeline is controlled by the OEMs.

Lawson Winder inquired about the decision to deprioritize the broader asset sale process, asking about the interest received to date and specific assets involved, particularly regarding the FPT sale economics.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Lourenco Goncalves confirmed the sale of Florida assets from FPT to SA Recycling, noting it was an asset generating zero EBITDA. He explained the Toledo HBI plant sale was deprioritized due to a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) with a global steelmaker, which presents alternative uses for the plant.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America requested guidance on the average selling price (ASP) and shipment volumes for Q3 2025, the outlook for Depreciation & Amortization (D&A), and commentary on the Canadian market dynamics given Stelco's domestic focus.

Answer

EVP & CFO Celso Goncalves guided for Q3 shipments to be similar to Q2's 4.3 million tons and provided a detailed breakdown of pricing mechanisms for analysts to calculate their own ASP. He also noted D&A should return to Q1 levels after a Q2 step-up from idled facilities. CEO Lourenco Goncalves expressed frustration with Canadian trade policy, urging the government to protect its domestic market from imports to ensure the viability of its steel industry.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America sought clarity on the assumptions behind the expected increase in domestic auto production, including risks from Canadian trade, and requested a more detailed bridge for Q2 EBITDA drivers.

Answer

CEO Lourenco Goncalves stated that even with lower overall auto sales, the reshoring of manufacturing will significantly boost US production, benefiting Cliffs. CFO Celso Goncalves provided Q2 guidance, projecting a ~$40/ton increase in ASPs against a modest ~$5/ton rise in costs, signaling improved sequential EBITDA.

Lawson Winder asked about the conditions required for a restart of the Cleveland Works #6 furnace, the potential for upside to the $120 million Stelco synergy target, and the ramp-up status of the Zanesville electrical steel line.

Answer

CEO Lourenco Goncalves declined to comment on a restart of the C6 furnace, stating it remains indefinitely idled. CFO Celso Goncalves expressed high confidence in exceeding the $120 million synergy target. CEO Goncalves confirmed the Zanesville investment paid off and emphasized Cliffs' technological dominance in grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) for transformers, which is their strategic focus.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America inquired about the potential for Q4 cost savings to match the significant reductions seen in Q3 and asked how the current annual contract pricing cycle compares to the previous year.

Answer

Executive Celso Goncalves stated that while the company has been tightening costs, he would not expect the same magnitude of cost reduction in Q4 as in Q3 due to the offsetting impact of the Cleveland 6 furnace idle. Executive Lourenco Goncalves confirmed that 2025 auto contract prices are slightly lower but that tonnage has been preserved, noting he had to be more flexible on pricing to counter aggressive competition.

Lawson Winder questioned if Barrick North America is intended to be domiciled in the United States, how share repurchases might fit into future capital returns given the new dividend policy, and the strategic importance and potential saleability of the Veladero asset, possibly packaged with Pascua-Lama.

Answer

Graham Shuttleworth, Senior EVP and CFO, stated that the domicile of Barrick North America is still under review, with updates to follow. He clarified that the board is currently prioritizing dividends and has not renewed the share buyback program. Mark Hill, President and CEO, affirmed that Veladero is not considered non-core and is a top-performing asset, thus Barrick has not explored divesting it.

Lawson Winder asked if Barrick North America is intended to be domiciled in the United States, how share repurchases might factor into future capital returns given the new dividend policy, and the importance of Veladero to the portfolio, including its potential as a non-core asset for sale, possibly packaged with Pascua-Lama.

Answer

Graham Shuttleworth, Senior EVP and CFO, stated that the domicile for Barrick North America is still being determined. He clarified that the board is currently focused on dividends and has not renewed the share buyback approval. Mark Hill, President and CEO, affirmed that Veladero is not non-core, highlighting its strong performance in the last 12 months, and stated that Barrick has not considered divesting it.

Asked about the upside potential at the Phoenix asset, details on the Goldstrike roaster maintenance, the intended use of proceeds from the Donlin sale, and the rationale for potentially redomiciling to the U.S.

Answer

Phoenix is a focus for its copper and porphyry potential. The Goldstrike roaster had a 20-day planned shutdown in Q1, with another major maintenance at Gold Quarry in April. Proceeds from the Donlin sale will be allocated to maintaining a healthy balance sheet, debt reduction, special dividends, and share buybacks. Redomiciling is an ongoing consideration to improve the efficiency of how U.S. assets are held, but no move is imminent.

Inquired about a payment made to the Malian government and the government's objectives in the ongoing dispute. Also asked about the potential sale of the Zaldivar asset and other non-strategic assets in the portfolio.

Answer

A one-off payment of $84 million was made to the Malian government in an attempt to reach an agreement, not a recurring expense. The dispute is driven by claims of unfulfilled obligations, which Barrick refutes and seeks to resolve through fact-based discussion. For assets, the focus at Zaldivar is on permitting, not a sale, though it's not a core asset. Tongon is being sold, and other assets are under strategic review.

Lawson Winder asked about Nucor's CapEx outlook for 2027, specifically regarding the West Virginia mill's follow-on CapEx and the latest thinking on ongoing non-expansionary (maintenance) CapEx.

Answer

Chair and CEO Leon Topalian and President, COO, and CFO Steve Laxton discussed the CapEx outlook. Leon noted the West Virginia mill would absorb the majority of CapEx into 2027. Steve guided annual maintenance capital closer to $800 million, up from previous estimates, due to inflation and company size. Leon also highlighted future expansionary projects focusing on mega-trends like data centers, energy, and towers, emphasizing less capital-intensive, counter-cyclical, and higher-value-chain investments.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities inquired about Nucor's CapEx outlook for 2027, specifically the follow-on CapEx for the West Virginia mill, and sought clarification on the updated figure for ongoing non-expansionary CapEx. Winder also asked about potential expansionary capital beyond 2026, focusing on specific business areas.

Answer

Chair and CEO Leon Topalian and President, COO, and CFO Steve Laxton confirmed that the West Virginia project would largely absorb 2026 CapEx, with a small carryover into 2027. Steve Laxton updated the annual non-expansionary CapEx guidance to $800 million due to inflation and company growth. Leon Topalian highlighted future growth areas tied to mega-trends like data centers, energy infrastructure, and towers and structures, emphasizing low-CapEx, counter-cyclical, and higher-value product investments.

Lawson Winder asked about Nucor's Q4 guidance for lower realized sheet pricing despite recent market price increases, and the company's strategy for future acquisition opportunities.

Answer

Leon Topalian (Chair, President, and CEO) explained that Q4 sheet pricing reflects typical seasonality and contract-based deliveries from a softer Q2, but anticipates higher Q1 pricing due to low service center and internal inventories. Regarding acquisitions, Leon Topalian outlined Nucor's 'grow the core, expand beyond' mission, focusing on deploying capital in adjacent spaces aligned with megatrends like energy infrastructure and data centers, seeking culturally aligned, low-capital intensity, high-margin, and countercyclical targets.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities asked for an update on the ramp-ups of the Lexington and Kingman mills, including the outlook for pre-operating costs and their future EBITDA contribution. He also inquired about the Brandenburg plate mill's current utilization and expected trends.

Answer

President and CEO Leon Topalian highlighted the strategic importance and future earnings power of the new mills. CFO Stephen Laxton projected pre-operating costs to be $140-$150 million per quarter for the rest of the year, noting the Brandenburg ramp-up helped reduce these costs from Q1. EVP Brad Ford emphasized that Brandenburg's value is in its unique capabilities, not just utilization, which enabled record shipments and entry into new markets like line pipe.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities asked for the outlook on pre-operating costs for the new Lexington and Kingman mills and inquired about the operational ramp-up and utilization at the Brandenburg plate mill.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian highlighted the future earnings potential from new projects. CFO Stephen Laxton projected pre-operating costs of $140M-$150M per quarter for 2H 2025. EVP Brad Ford explained that Brandenburg's value is in its unique capabilities, not just utilization, and expects its record production and shipments to continue growing.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America inquired about the expected magnitude of start-up costs for the remainder of 2025 and sought details on the Brandenburg mill's projected year-end utilization and future product mix.

Answer

CFO Stephen Laxton advised modeling 2025 start-up costs similar to recent quarters, around $160-$170 million per quarter. CEO Leon Topalian and EVP Brad Ford highlighted Brandenburg's progress, noting it's on track for positive EBITDA run rates by summer, has achieved ABS certification for shipbuilding, and is trialing products for the API line pipe market. Topalian added that the strategy involves balancing volume with a ramp-up to higher-value products across Nucor's three plate mills.

Lawson Winder inquired about Nucor's startup costs for 2025 and Brandenburg's utilization rate by year-end.

Answer

EVP John Hollatz provided guidance on startup costs, projecting similar figures to the previous year. CEO Leon Topalian and EVP Brad Ford discussed Brandenburg's progress and product development.

Lawson Winder asked for an updated EBITDA outlook for the towers business following recent investments. He also questioned if concerns about rebar market oversupply were causing Nucor to reconsider its investment plans in that area.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian stated the towers business is now expected to generate at least $150 million in annual EBITDA, a threefold increase. He clarified that the pause on a Pacific Northwest mill project was due to capital deployment timing, not market concerns. Executive Randy Spicer added that he expects new domestic rebar supply to be absorbed by strong demand and import displacement.

Lawson Winder inquired about the operational ramp-up and production outlook for the Brandenburg plate mill, as well as the expected timing for the benefits of lower interest rates to impact steel demand.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian and executive Brad Ford confirmed the Brandenburg mill is ramping up successfully, breaking production records in September and focusing on high-value products like 150-inch wide plate and Elcyon for offshore wind. Regarding interest rates, CEO Leon Topalian suggested that market clarity following the U.S. election would be a key catalyst for releasing pent-up demand, with CFO Steve Laxton adding that stable macroeconomic conditions could amplify this effect.

Lawson Winder asked if Steel Dynamics sees potential for adding additional aluminum rolling capacity in the next couple of years, given the current market and startup success, and inquired about the company's dividend prescriptions for the year, considering anticipated significant positive free cash flow.

Answer

Mark Millett, Chairman and CEO, confirmed that aluminum will absolutely be a growth platform, complementing steel and other businesses, due to industry profile and supply-demand dislocation. Theresa Wagler, EVP and CFO, stated that the dividend grows with structural cash flow, and while it has already increased significantly, aluminum's impact could lead to further increases this year or next, with share repurchases used in the interim.

Lawson Winder asked about Steel Dynamics' comfort level regarding the upper limits of debt capacity on its balance sheet for potential acquisitions or major new capacity investments, seeking insight into the company's financial flexibility.

Answer

Theresa Wagler, EVP and CFO, stated that the balance sheet has considerable capacity, with a through-cycle target of less than 2x net leverage, which the company is currently well under. She emphasized commitment to investment-grade markets and noted that improving structural EBITDA from new investments adds further capacity.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities inquired if the coated steel inventory overhang was dissipating in Q3 and asked for more details on the cause of the oxygen supply disruption at the Sinton mill.

Answer

President & COO Barry Schneider confirmed that coated steel inventories are declining and new imports have slowed, which should lead to a return to normal profitability. He explained the oxygen issue was caused by a maintenance problem at their third-party pipeline supplier, which affected the entire region, and noted they are evaluating options to improve future reliability.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities questioned if the coated steel inventory overhang was dissipating and could lead to a sales benefit in Q3. He also asked for more details on the cause of the oxygen supply disruption at Sinton.

Answer

COO Barry Schneider confirmed that coated steel inventories are winding down and new imports are not replacing them due to recent trade case rulings, leading to a normalization of profitability. He explained the oxygen issue was due to a maintenance problem at their pipeline supplier's facility, which affected the entire region, and is not expected to be a recurring problem.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities questioned if the inventory overhang in coated steel is dissipating in Q3. He also asked for more details on the cause of the oxygen supply disruption at the Sinton mill.

Answer

President & COO Barry Schneider confirmed that coated steel inventories are winding down and are not being replenished due to pending ADCVD cases, which should allow spreads to normalize. Regarding the oxygen issue, he explained it was due to a maintenance problem at a pipeline supplier, which is not expected to be a regular event, though the company is evaluating adding on-site technologies to enhance reliability.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities asked if the coated steel inventory overhang is dissipating in Q3, potentially leading to a sales benefit. He also inquired about the specific cause of the vendor's oxygen supply limitation to the Sinton mill.

Answer

President & COO Barry Schneider confirmed that coated steel inventories are winding down and new material isn't replacing it, suggesting a return to more normal profitability levels. He explained the oxygen issue was due to a maintenance problem at a regional supplier's facility, which serves the broader Texas petroleum industry, and noted it was an unexpected event.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities asked if the coated steel inventory overhang is dissipating and could lead to a sales benefit in Q3. He also sought more details on the cause of the oxygen supply disruption at the Sinton mill.

Answer

President & COO Barry Schneider confirmed that coated steel inventories are declining and that new imports are not replacing them due to pending trade cases, which should normalize profit spreads. He explained the oxygen issue was due to a maintenance problem at their pipeline supplier and is not expected to be a recurring problem, though they are evaluating on-site reliability options.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America inquired about Steel Dynamics' capital allocation priorities, asking about potential new projects or M&A appetite for 2025, and whether an absence of new projects could lead to accelerated capital returns to shareholders.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett stated that the immediate focus is on executing the Sinton and Aluminum Dynamics ramp-ups, with no imminent large-scale organic growth or M&A planned. CFO Theresa Wagler added that while the company is growth-oriented, its consistent cash flow supports meaningful shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, a strategy she does not expect to change.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America requested details on the path to optimal utilization for the Sinton mill and asked if the upcoming dividend increase could be more substantial given Sinton's progress and the aluminum project's startup.

Answer

COO Barry Schneider outlined the path for Sinton, focusing on reducing unplanned downtime and improving equipment reliability, expressing confidence in a strong 2025. CFO Theresa Wagler stated that while a positive dividend move is likely in Q1, its magnitude is a Board decision. She noted Sinton's 2025 performance will be a factor, while the aluminum project's significant cash flow impact is expected more in 2026.

Lawson Winder inquired about the drivers behind Alcoa's alumina productivity improvements, particularly given the Kwinana curtailment, asking if it was due to better utilization or third-party bauxite. He also asked about Alcoa's capital return strategy, net debt levels, and the balance between buybacks, debt repayment, and growth opportunities for 2026.

Answer

Molly Beerman, EVP and CFO, attributed alumina productivity to teams applying technical resources despite lower bauxite grades. William Oplinger, President and CEO, highlighted strong performance at Alumar, Pinjarra, and Wagerup. On capital return, Molly Beerman confirmed reaching the net debt target ($1.46B), expecting Q1 cash consumption but overall 2026 cash generation for debt repayment and a mix of shareholder returns and growth. William Oplinger emphasized maintaining a 'fortress balance sheet'.

Lawson Winder inquired about the drivers behind Alcoa's alumina productivity improvements and higher production, especially with Kwinana offline. He also asked about Alcoa's capital return strategy, specifically how net debt levels influence potential buybacks versus debt repayment and growth investments for 2026.

Answer

Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, attributed alumina productivity improvements to technical resource application despite low bauxite grade. William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer, added that the Alumar refinery is running well, and Pinjarra and Wagerup are expected to outperform in 2026. Molly Beerman stated that while net debt is within target, the goal is to remain there through cycles, with Q1 cash consumption expected. Excess cash in 2026 will be used for debt repayment and will compete between shareholder returns and value-creating growth opportunities, emphasizing a 'fortress balance sheet'.

Lawson Winder inquired about the background and initiation of the U.S.-Australia Alcoa partnership for a gallium plant, and subsequently asked for details on required approvals, permits, and the timeline to first production for the facility.

Answer

William Oplinger, CEO, explained that the initiative began with Alcoa and Japanese partners seeking gallium offtake, later joined by the U.S. and Australian governments. He highlighted the strategic advantage of creating a gallium supply chain outside China, solidifying the Wagerup facility, and strengthening international relationships. Wagerup was chosen for quick approvals, with an aggressive target for first metal by the end of 2026.

Lawson Winder inquired about the background and initiation of the U.S.-Australia Alcoa partnership for a gallium plant, and subsequently asked about the necessary approvals, permits, and the projected timeline to first production for the facility.

Answer

William Oplinger, CEO, explained that the initiative began with Alcoa and Japanese partners seeking gallium offtake, later involving the U.S. and Australian governments. He highlighted its strategic importance in creating a gallium supply chain outside China, solidifying the Wagerup facility, and strengthening international relationships. He added that Wagerup was chosen for quick approvals, with an aggressive target for first metal production by the end of 2026.

Lawson Winder asked for an update on Alcoa's strategy for the Mauden shares it received, specifically regarding potential monetization or using them as collateral to reduce borrowing costs.

Answer

EVP & CFO Molly Beerman stated that while monetizing the shares during the lock-up period is an option, it would be a complex transaction classified as debt and is not currently planned. She indicated Alcoa does not have a specific use for the cash that would justify adding debt to the balance sheet at this time.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities asked for clarity on Alcoa's net debt target, how the Ma'aden equity position factors into capital return plans, and for an update on the bauxite market's tightness.

Answer

EVP and CFO Molly Beerman stated that while Alcoa no longer has a stated net debt target, the current $2.1 billion level is higher than the more comfortable ~$1 billion of 2021-2022, making delevering a 2025 priority. President and CEO William Oplinger added that the Ma'aden stake (~$1.3B value) has a multi-year lockup, influencing the timing of value realization. He also described the bauxite market as "very tight," with record-high prices pressuring Chinese refineries.

Lawson Winder sought more precise timing for the Bagdad SX expansion update, details on CapEx inflation relative to the 2023 $3.5 billion estimate, potential changes to the mine plan, and non-copper price factors considered for project approval.

Answer

Kathleen Quirk, President and CEO, indicated that engineering work and securing fixed pricing from vendors for the Bagdad expansion are ongoing in the first half of the year, with a decision targeted for mid-year. She acknowledged cost inflation but could not confirm a 5% annual rate, emphasizing value engineering. Key non-copper price factors include workforce setup, optimizing autonomous fleet performance, and ensuring efficient operations to achieve lower incremental costs. Cory Stevens provided additional context on infrastructure, power upgrades, and the learning curve for the autonomous fleet.

Lawson Winder asked for a more precise timing for the Bagdad 2X project update, details on CapEx inflation, potential changes to the mine plan, and factors beyond copper price considered for project approval.

Answer

Kathleen Quirk, President and CEO, indicated a mid-year decision after completing engineering and securing fixed pricing, acknowledging cost inflation but not confirming a 5% annual rate. She mentioned value engineering to control capital intensity. Beyond copper price, key factors include workforce readiness, optimizing autonomous fleet performance (still early stages), and ensuring efficient operations to achieve lower incremental costs. Cory Stevens, President, SVP and COO, Americas, added that the team is energized and refining autonomous operations.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Global Research sought clarification on whether the 2027-2029 production guidance, showing a step-up to 1.7 billion pounds of copper, includes PB1C, or if PB1C represents additional upside. He also asked about considerations for hardening material flow, such as cemented tailings or backfill, and other measures that could lead to higher short-term operating costs.

Answer

Kathleen Quirk, President and CEO, clarified that PB1C accounts for a relatively small portion, 2-3% of copper and 3-5% of gold, in the 2028-2029 production numbers. Mark Johnson, President and COO of Freeport-McMoRan Indonesia, stated that adding additives like cemented tailings to the mud is currently discounted due to poor access, with other removal approaches deemed more effective.

Lawson Winder asked if the 2028-2029 copper production guidance of 1.7 billion pounds includes PB1C, or if PB1C represents additional upside. He also inquired about additional measures like cemented tailings or backfill to harden material flow and their potential impact on short-term operating costs. He also asked for clarification on the Q3 idle facility costs and recovery expenses, and what amount should be expected in Q4 and 2026, and if these are excluded from C1 cash guidance.

Answer

Kathleen Quirk (President and CEO) clarified that PB1C accounts for 2-3% of copper and 3-5% of gold in the 2028-2029 production volumes, making it a relatively small component. Mark Johnson (President and COO, Freeport-McMoRan Indonesia) stated that adding additives like cemented tailings to the mud is currently discounted due to access issues, with focus on removal. Kathleen Quirk explained that approximately $450 million in Q4 costs, similar to Q3's $171 million, will be expensed directly as idle facility costs, excluded from C1 cash guidance, and will ramp down in 2026.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America questioned the feasibility of shipping refined copper from Indonesia to the U.S. to capitalize on price differentials and asked about the strategy for a potential new U.S. smelter.

Answer

President & CEO Kathleen Quirk responded that while they will evaluate all options, the logical and historical market for Indonesian copper is Asia. Regarding U.S. smelting capacity, she confirmed they are studying a brownfield expansion at their Miami, Arizona facility but view a greenfield project as highly challenging. She emphasized that the most immediate opportunity to boost U.S. refined output is through their innovative leach program.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America asked about the feasibility of shipping refined copper from Indonesia to the U.S. to capture the price spread and whether a new U.S. smelter would be a brownfield expansion or a greenfield project.

Answer

President & CEO Kathleen Quirk responded that while they have flexibility, the logical market for Indonesian cathode is Asia. For U.S. capacity, she confirmed they are studying a cost-effective expansion of the Miami smelter, as a greenfield project would be very challenging. She reiterated that the innovative leach program is the most immediate opportunity to increase U.S. refined copper production.

Inquired about the El Abra project's economics, asking for the required copper price and IRR for justification, and whether a stability agreement would be part of the approval.

Answer

The El Abra project is economic at a copper price below $4/lb, though a $4 price would provide a higher return to compensate for risk. The company will evaluate the potential for a stability agreement in Chile. A decision is still years away, but securing the permit by the end of the year will create valuable optionality.

Lawson Winder asked about the El Abra project in Chile, specifically the copper price and IRR needed to justify the investment and whether a stability agreement would be part of the approval process.

Answer

President and CEO Kathleen Quirk stated that the project economics are robust even at a sub-$4 copper price, though a $4 price would provide a higher return to account for risk. She mentioned that while they will evaluate a stability agreement, the immediate focus is on submitting the Environmental Impact Statement by year-end, which creates valuable optionality by making it a shovel-ready project.

Lawson Winder questioned the decision-making process for large capital projects, asking if a decision on Bagdad would await study results from El Abra and Lone Star, and also inquired about the 2025 CapEx outlook.

Answer

President and CEO Kathleen Quirk explained that the projects are not mutually exclusive and that Freeport can execute more than one simultaneously. She noted Bagdad can be executed on a 3-4 year horizon and that capital is allocated to the most valuable projects in the portfolio. For 2025, she does not foresee a major change to the capital expenditure forecast, which already includes funds for de-risking the Bagdad project, and does not expect significant new CapEx from the other large projects discussed.

Lawson Winder inquired about Royal Gold's approach to capital returns, specifically regarding the upcoming dividend increase consideration, asking if the larger portfolio might lead to a bigger-than-usual increase or if heavy capital spending would result in a smaller one. He also asked about the potential for share buybacks given the perceived valuation gap. Additionally, he sought conceptual expectations for GEOs in 2026 following the Constantian and Sandstorm acquisitions and when 2026 guidance would be provided. Finally, he asked if Royal Gold would benefit from Arrow Copper's plans to process stockpiles at Xavantina.

Answer

Bill Heissenbuttel (President and CEO, Royal Gold) stated that the board would review the dividend in November, emphasizing the company's long history of increases despite debt, but declined to pre-empt the decision. He noted that share buybacks would be considered after assessing market valuation post-messaging efforts and prioritizing debt repayment. He confirmed that 2026 guidance, including GEO expectations for the new portfolio, would be provided at the investor day in late March, as it's too early to make estimates for assets recently acquired. He also confirmed that Royal Gold would benefit from gold production from Xavantina stockpiles.

Lawson Winder asked about Royal Gold's ability to maintain its 2025 guidance despite underperformance at key assets, its strategic view on African exposure after the Kansanshi deal, and whether a share buyback is being considered given recent stock underperformance.

Answer

SVP of Operations Martin Raffield addressed the guidance question, stating that the company's rigorous, risk-adjusted forecasting process provides confidence in the current range. President and CEO William Heissenbuttel commented on jurisdictional risk, noting that they evaluate opportunities on a country-by-country basis and are not 'maxed out' on Africa. Regarding capital allocation, Heissenbuttel confirmed that the primary focus for excess cash flow will be debt repayment before any consideration of a share buyback.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities asked about the assessment of political risk in Botswana following the recent change in government and its potential impact on the Khoemacau asset. He also inquired about the company's appetite for deals in Africa, the geographic sources of the deal pipeline, and the directional outlook for GEOs in 2025.

Answer

SVP of Operations Martin Raffield stated that while the election result was a surprise, the operator has no short-term concerns and believes the new government may view the mine's expansion favorably. SVP of Corporate Development Daniel Breeze noted that while they selectively look at Africa, the current pipeline is predominantly from the Americas and Australia. CEO William Heissenbuttel declined to give a directional steer on 2025 GEOs, citing the potential for unforeseen negative events at major assets, and stated they will provide guidance on their usual schedule.

Lawson Winder questioned Reliance's capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding share buybacks versus other investments, especially when shares are weaker, asked if the aluminum supply disruption in New York State would materially impact Reliance's costs or profitability, and sought perspective on seasonality, particularly the outlook for a Q1 recovery.

Answer

Karla Lewis, President and CEO, stated that buying Reliance stock is always considered a good decision, with activity adjusted based on market value, viewing it as a low-risk use of capital. She reiterated that the New York State aluminum supply disruption is not expected to materially impact Reliance's profitability, as tolling operations can accommodate other demand. Regarding seasonality, Karla Lewis explained that Q1 and Q2 are typically the strongest shipping quarters due to more shipping days and full staffing, with Q3 and Q4 seeing normal seasonal dips due to shutdowns and holidays, and confirmed expectations for a Q1 bounce back consistent with historical trends.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America asked about Reliance Inc.'s capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding share buybacks during periods of weaker share prices versus other investment opportunities. He also inquired about the impact of the aluminum supply disruption in New York State and sought perspective on typical seasonality trends for Q1 and overall business activity.

Answer

Karla Lewis, CEO and President, stated that buying Reliance stock is always a good decision, and they adjust activity based on market value, viewing repurchases as a low-risk use of capital. She confirmed that Reliance Inc. is impacted by the aluminum supply disruption, working collaboratively with mills and end-users to mitigate it, but it's not expected to materially impact profitability due to the ability of tolling operations to accommodate other demand. She detailed normal seasonality: Q1 and Q2 are strongest, Q3 dips 3-5% (though Q3 2025 was flat to Q2, showing outperformance), and Q4 dips another 5-7% due to holidays, with a bounce back in Q1.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America sought clarification on the timeline for an update on the La Colorada Skarn project, asking if it would be in a single month or several months. He also asked about the most likely monetization options and the timing and price assumptions for the upcoming mid-year reserve and resource update.

Answer

President & CEO Michael Steinmann clarified the update would be in the coming 'months' (plural) and will include exciting results from new high-grade veins that will be factored into partnership negotiations. He stated the mid-year reserve update is expected by mid-September and will continue to use a conservative, asset-specific approach to price assumptions rather than a single price for all mines.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America sought clarification on the timeline for an update on the La Colorada Skarn project, asking if it would be in a single month or several months. He also asked about the potential for a monetization or partnership transaction and the timing and price assumptions for the upcoming mid-year reserve update.

Answer

CEO Michael Steinmann clarified that an update on the Skarn project would come in 'several months' and will include exciting results from new high-grade vein intercepts, which will be factored into ongoing partnership discussions. He stated the mid-year reserve and resource update is expected by mid-September and will continue to use a conservative, asset-specific pricing approach to optimize margins in the current high-price environment.

Lawson Winder inquired about the 2026 production outlook for Mount Milligan, details on the upcoming technical study's scope, the critical path and permitting for the Goldfield project, and whether the expanded Mount Milligan resource could extend beyond the Royal Gold stream area.

Answer

President & CEO Paul Tomory indicated that the current production profile is a reasonable average for the next several years. He stated the upcoming PFS aims to add significant mine life via new tailings capacity and a 10% throughput increase. For Goldfield, the critical path is project execution, as key permits are largely in place. Tomory also confirmed that all currently contemplated resource expansions at Mount Milligan would remain subject to the amended Royal Gold stream agreement.

Lawson Winder asked how the advancement of the Kemess project affects the company's capital allocation strategy, particularly the need for M&A. He also inquired about the potential strip ratio for the Kemess open pit and requested an update on the strategic process for the molybdenum business unit, including timelines and customer demand.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Tomory stated that the Kemess project screens very favorably against potential acquisitions, lessening the immediate need for M&A, though the company remains open to opportunities. He noted the Kemess open pit mineralization is relatively shallow, not anticipating a very significant strip ratio. Regarding the molybdenum business, Tomory confirmed they remain open to a sale but see significant long-term value. CFO Ryan Snyder added that demand from U.S. steel customers is strong, with Q1 sales on an annualized pace of 16 million pounds.

Lawson Winder asked about Centerra's strategy for growing its gold business following the decision to pause the Goldfield project, inquiring about potential M&A or expansion in Turkey. He also questioned if the capital return policy would increase given higher gold prices and sought an update on the timeline and targets for improving gold recoveries at Mount Milligan.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Tomory stated that the primary focus is on organic growth by extending the life of Mount Milligan and advancing Kemess, though they remain open to M&A and are active in Turkish greenfield exploration. He clarified that the preference for incremental capital is for gold asset investment over increasing returns to shareholders. COO Paul Chawrun added that Q4 Mount Milligan recoveries were temporarily lower due to mine sequencing but are improving, with a mid-60s percentage targeted through better blending and geological understanding.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities asked about the ramp-up of electrical and instrumentation trades at Skourias, the company's exposure to the EUR/USD exchange rate, the expected gold output split between Q3 and Q4 for Kisladag, and the potential gold price assumption for the year-end reserve update.

Answer

President & CEO George Burns stated that the electrical trade ramp-up at Skourias is proceeding well with productivity at or above expectations. EVP & CFO Paul Ferneyhough clarified that FX risk is minimal as project funds were already converted to Euros via forward contracts. EVP Simon Hille projected Kisladag's H2 production would be steady between Q3 and Q4 but slightly lower than H1 due to lower grades. Finally, Mr. Burns indicated a slight, conservative increase is likely for the year-end reserve gold price assumption.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities asked why the company wouldn't allocate the entire windfall from its G Mining share sale to the share buyback program. He also inquired about the risk of skilled labor cost inflation for the Skouries project given potential competition from large-scale infrastructure programs in Europe.

Answer

CFO Paul Ferneyhough responded that the NCIB size is governed by regulations (up to 5% of shares) and its use will be opportunistic, not directly tied to a single cash event. President and CEO George Burns addressed labor risk, stating they have identified over 700 skilled EU workers and that any cost variations are within guidance. He and EVP Louw Smith added that their project schedule appears to be ahead of other major EU projects, mitigating competition risk.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America asked about the timing of the production guidance downgrade, the specific geotechnical challenges at the Vazante mine, and the potential for recent exploration results to impact year-end reserves.

Answer

CEO Ignacio Rosado explained the guidance change was delayed until the full impact of issues at Aripuana and Vazante was understood late in Q2. SVP of Mining Operations, Leonardo Nunes Coelho, detailed that the Vazante issue was a localized pillar constraint affecting access to high-grade zones, not a widespread problem. CEO Rosado added that while exploration results are promising for extending mine life, the immediate focus is on operational stability, and he committed to providing clearer updates on reserve replacement.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America inquired about capital allocation priorities, including the balance between M&A and debt reduction, and the outlook for year-end mineral reserves at key assets.

Answer

CEO Ignacio Rosado stated that the immediate priority is reducing gross debt, while also funding internal growth projects like Pasco integration and Cerro Lindo exploration. He confirmed Nexa is still actively seeking a copper acquisition. He expressed confidence in extending mine life at Cerro Lindo and noted the significant long-term reserve potential at Aripuana.

Lawson Winder from BofA Securities asked about the potential to extend the open pit life at Westwood's Grand Duc project. He also inquired about the potential to increase the underground mining rate beyond 1,000 tpd and how M&A opportunities compete with internal growth projects like Cote and Chibougamau.

Answer

COO Bruno Lemelin described Grand Duc as a low-grade "swing producer" that stabilizes mill feed and said the company is evaluating the economic limits of further expansion. He noted that underground mining rates could potentially increase from 1,000 tpd towards 1,300 tpd with improvements in ore transportation. CEO Renaud Adams stated that given the company's strong organic growth pipeline, there is no short-term need for M&A, and the focus will be on creating value from their existing assets.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America asked if the current high gold price might prompt a more significant open pit layback at Rainy River and what the corresponding options for tailings storage would be. He also asked for clarification on M&A preferences regarding asset type (project vs. operating) and geographic jurisdiction.

Answer

President and CEO Patrick Godin confirmed they are evaluating a pushback but are carefully considering the required CapEx for the tailings storage facility (TSF), which is near capacity. VP of Operations Travis Murphy (Note: The transcript attributes this to Keith Murphy, but context suggests the operations lead) added that a potential new small pit at the Northwest Trend could create future in-pit tailings capacity. On M&A, Godin stated a preference for acquiring a cash-flowing operating mine but stressed that the company prioritizes stability, safety, and maintaining a strong balance sheet, limiting their focus to specific, stable jurisdictions.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities asked for an update on past QB2 challenges, including clay mix stabilization and a geotechnical fault. He also questioned if the strong Q1 grade at QB2 suggested potential upside to the full-year grade guidance.

Answer

CEO Jonathan Price confirmed the geotechnical issue is resolved and that the clay content is being managed as per the mine plan, with improvements expected as the year progresses. He stated that the full-year grade guidance of approximately 0.6% remains unchanged, explaining that the higher grade in March was a mine sequencing and timing matter, not an indicator of overall upside.

Lawson Winder asked about capital allocation between zinc and copper projects and inquired about the political climate in Mexico and its impact on the decision to invest capital in the San Nicolas project.

Answer

CEO Jonathan Price stated that capital allocation is holistic, with all projects competing on returns. He noted that zinc fundamentals remain attractive and Red Dog is a core, Tier 1 asset. Regarding Mexico, he described the San Nicolas project as high-quality and mentioned a productive meeting with President Sheinbaum. While encouraged by long-term signals on foreign investment, he affirmed that a sanction decision would not be made without certainty on permitting and government support.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities asked about Wheaton's dividend policy, questioning if the payout ratio could be increased, and inquired about the capital deployment outlook for 2025, including potential deal size and the influence of existing contractual obligations.

Answer

President and CEO Randy Smallwood explained that the dividend level is a balance between maintaining a progressive dividend and preserving balance sheet capacity for a strong pipeline of opportunities, particularly large-scale copper deals. SVP, Corporate Development Haytham Hodaly added that Wheaton has historically deployed over $800 million annually and sees a current pipeline of deals ranging from $100 million to over $1 billion. SVP & CFO Gary Brown noted that spending on contractual obligations would be spread relatively evenly throughout 2025.

Lawson Winder inquired about the run-rate revenue from the Bonikro and Agbaou stream excluding true-ups, the operational status of the El Machito asset, the current situation with illegal miners at the Buriticá asset, and the deal pipeline's typical transaction size and commodity focus.

Answer

COO James Dendle clarified that the Bonikro and Agbaou true-ups are small and settled in Q1. CEO Sheldon Vanderkooy described El Machito as a small, non-critical asset that has restarted deliveries and represents upside, with CFO Eban Bari adding that deliveries were received in Q3 and Q4 2024. Regarding Buriticá, Sheldon Vanderkooy explained that operator Zijin is managing the long-term issue with illegal miners while maintaining record production. He also stated the M&A pipeline's sweet spot is $100M-$300M, with a focus on precious metals despite being open to opportunistic non-precious deals.

Lawson Winder asked about the run-rate revenue from the Bonikro and Agbaou stream excluding true-ups, the operational status of the El Machito asset, the ongoing risks from illegal miners at Buriticá, and the characteristics of the current M&A deal pipeline.

Answer

COO James Dendle clarified that the Bonikro and Agbaou true-ups are small and occur annually in Q1. CEO Sheldon Vanderkooy described El Machito as a non-critical asset that has restarted deliveries and represents upside. He also noted that while the illegal mining situation at Buriticá is ongoing, operator Zijin is managing it well and the mine is achieving record production. Regarding the deal pipeline, Mr. Vanderkooy stated the sweet spot is $100M-$300M, heavily weighted towards precious metals, and the next deal will likely be a gold/silver transaction in the Americas. CFO Eban Bari added that El Machito made deliveries in Q3 and Q4 2024.

Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities inquired about the minority interest sale process for the Copper World project, asking about the types of interested parties, early indications on valuation, and the expected completion timeline. He also requested a long-term run rate for sustaining capital expenditures.

Answer

President and CEO Peter Kukielski stated that interest in the Copper World stake has been strong and diverse, including traditional investors, Middle Eastern partners, strategic players, and financial firms, with an expected timeline of four to six months to complete the process. CFO Eugene Lei outlined sustaining capital, suggesting a normalized annual run rate between $250 million and $300 million, excluding major stripping programs.

Lawson Winder of BofA Securities asked about Hudbay's current M&A posture and acquisition criteria, and whether public feedback from the Copper World Aquifer Permit comment period altered the company's view on the project's social license.

Answer

President & CEO Peter Kukielski affirmed that Hudbay's M&A strategy remains disciplined, focusing on accretive copper assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions, primarily the Americas, but noted no current opportunities meet their stringent criteria. Regarding the Copper World permit, Kukielski stated that public comments were generally supportive, with a large number in favor of the project, and the company remains confident in receiving the permit by year-end.

Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities sought to confirm if Marigold's 2025 production profile would still reflect a previously guided investment phase and asked for more color on the specific conditions or stage gates for reinstating operating approvals at Çöpler.

Answer

Executive Chairman Rodney Antal confirmed that the technical report from the previous year, which outlined an investment phase for Marigold in 2025, remains the best reference point until new guidance is issued. Regarding Çöpler, he reiterated that there is no single 'playbook' or condition precedent like a new EIA, but rather a process of completing engineering for remediation facilities and maintaining continuous dialogue with Turkish regulators.

Lawson Winder asked about the outlook for adding resources at La Coipa and the potential timing for such additions. He also followed up on capital returns, asking about a potential dividend increase and the company's preference between buybacks and dividends.

Answer

EVP and CTO William Dunford stated that while La Coipa has exploration potential, the current focus is on drilling higher-grade growth projects, as La Coipa already has resources to carry it through 2030. CEO J. Rollinson added that water availability is a key consideration. Regarding capital returns, Rollinson confirmed that the share buyback is the preferred method over a dividend increase at this time.

Lawson Winder asked about the potential for raising the gold price assumption in reserve calculations, the company's M&A strategy, and the current labor market conditions in Nevada.

Answer

CEO J. Rollinson stated that a decision on the reserve price assumption will be made in the fall, noting Bald Mountain has the most sensitivity. On M&A, he emphasized the strength of the organic portfolio and said the company would only be opportunistic where it can add value. EVP and COO Claude J. Schimper confirmed that the positive trend in employee turnover and morale in Nevada is continuing.

Lawson Winder asked for the assumed startup timeline for the Yanacocha sulfides project used in the company's IRR calculation. He also questioned how the recent rebound in the precious metals revenue mix might shift the company's M&A focus between precious and non-precious metals.

Answer

Eaun Gray, SVP of Business Development, stated they modeled the Yanacocha sulfides production to begin around a 2029 timeline. Paul Brink, President and CEO, clarified that M&A strategy is driven first by asset quality, with precious metals remaining the top priority, but the company remains open to high-quality assets in other commodities.