Lee Horowitz

Lee Horowitz asked how Airbnb thinks about leveraging marketing spend during a slowdown to gain market share, particularly as competitors become more aggressive, and if it's still possible to gain leverage in core markets.

Answer

CFO Ellie Mertz affirmed that Airbnb retains significant flexibility in its marketing plan, constantly evaluating channel and market efficiencies. She stated the company can reallocate funds to channels and markets that are performing well and cut spending where results are less desirable, a standard practice that allows them to adapt to changing market conditions.

Lee Horowitz questioned why strong growth in expansion markets isn't lifting the overall Q1 nights growth forecast more significantly. He also asked for the rationale behind keeping marketing intensity flat year-over-year despite having numerous growth regions to invest in.

Answer

CFO Ellie Mertz addressed the marketing question by explaining that brand marketing is a relatively fixed spend per market, not a variable one. This allows Airbnb to maintain modest growth in core market spend while adding incremental dollars for new expansion markets without increasing overall intensity. The transcript does not contain a direct answer to the first part of the question regarding Q1 nights growth.

Lee Horowitz asked about Airbnb's long-term bookings growth algorithm for its core business and the potential contribution from new verticals. He also questioned if the strong Q4 outlook provides confidence to invest more aggressively.

Answer

CFO Ellie Mertz identified two primary growth drivers: ongoing core product optimizations to improve the user experience and continued investment in global expansion markets, which are expected to contribute increasingly to growth. She confirmed that the company builds on its successes, reinvesting resources into initiatives like core optimizations that have proven to deliver gains, suggesting a continued cycle of investment behind successful strategies.

Lee Horowitz of Deutsche Bank asked about the sustainability of B2C direct marketing leverage into next year, considering competitive investments in the U.S. hotel market. He also questioned whether the high-watermark B2C performance this quarter is sustainable, especially with progress from Vrbo and Hotels.com.

Answer

CFO Scott Schenkel emphasized agility in marketing, linking sustained productivity to improved site performance and ROI, and noted readiness to adjust to competitive dynamics. CEO Ariane Gorin expressed confidence in B2C sustainability, citing the success of new features like Save Your Way for Hotels.com and member rates for Vrbo, which contributed to Hotels.com's fastest growth in over two years. She also highlighted Expedia's record attach rates, expanded airline partnerships, and growth in vacation rentals, along with significant international growth opportunities.

Lee Horowitz questioned the sustainability of Expedia Group's direct marketing leverage in B2C into next year, considering competitor investments, and whether the current B2C performance is sustainable given brand progress.

Answer

CFO Scott Schenkel stated that sustaining marketing leverage depends on agility, site performance, and competitive dynamics, with potential to lean in for volume if conversion improves. CEO Ariane Gorin expressed confidence in Vrbo's foundational performance due to new product features, improved assortment, and trust initiatives like Vrbo Care. She highlighted Hotels.com's fastest growth in over two years from its relaunch and Save Your Way program, and Expedia's record attach rates and international growth opportunities, all contributing to sustainable B2C momentum.

Lee Horowitz of Deutsche Bank asked for the drivers behind the company's confidence in achieving B2C marketing leverage in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin attributed the confidence to several factors. She stated that marketing leverage stems from product improvements that drive more direct traffic, better conversion, and higher repeat rates. Additionally, sharpening the value proposition of each brand, such as Expedia's focus on package deals, makes marketing spend more effective. She also cited progress in measurement and partner integrations as key enablers.

Lee Horowitz from Deutsche Bank asked about the B2C business outlook, noting that updated guidance could imply negative growth and questioning the drivers of this performance relative to peers. He also inquired about the evolution of the loyalty program and its strategic importance.

Answer

CFO Scott Schenkel acknowledged the B2C business will be pressured by U.S. demand softness but did not confirm it would be 'hugely negative.' CEO Ariane Gorin added that pricing is also a factor. On loyalty, she affirmed its critical importance, especially for top-tier members, and explained that recent changes, like on Vrbo, were made to optimize ROI by removing spend that didn't sufficiently drive repeat behavior.

Lee Horowitz sought to understand if marketing leverage is a key component of the 50 basis points of margin expansion guided for 2025. He also asked for commentary on Vrbo's quarter-to-date trends and its long-term potential to outpace the market.

Answer

CFO Scott Schenkel declined to break out the specific components of the margin guidance. CEO Ariane Gorin did not provide brand-specific guidance on quarter-to-date trends but reiterated her conviction in Vrbo's differentiated value proposition as a pure-play for whole homes. She emphasized that the company is still in a phase of testing and learning to optimize growth for the brand based on what delivers the best returns.

Lee Horowitz inquired about the path to achieving aggregate marketing leverage, considering the ongoing investments in Vrbo and international markets. He also asked for the key drivers behind the strong growth in the Media Solutions (advertising) business and its long-term potential.

Answer

CFO Julie Whalen explained that while B2B commissions pressure the marketing line, the core B2C business is already seeing leverage, excluding the targeted investments. She stated that as Vrbo and international markets recover, overall leverage should improve. CEO Ariane Gorin attributed advertising growth to attracting more partners through a simplified sign-up process and introducing more effective ad products like video. She noted there is significant 'white space' for future growth compared to other large retail companies.

Lee Horowitz asked about the risk of hotel partners directly engaging generative search players to bypass platforms like Booking Holdings, and the company's strategies to mitigate such disruption.

Answer

CEO and President Glenn Fogel contextualized this risk by noting that hotels have always had direct channels, including via Google, and he doesn't foresee a giant shift due to LLMs. He highlighted Booking Holdings' value proposition, including the growing direct customer base (mid-60% in B2C), trust, and the Genius loyalty program, which provides significant value to travelers and incremental demand for partners, making it a win-win-win scenario that smaller players or LLMs cannot easily replicate.

Lee Horowitz asked about the competitive risk posed by hotel partners potentially bypassing platforms like Booking Holdings by partnering directly with generative search players, and what tools the company has to mitigate such disruption.

Answer

Glenn Fogel, CEO and President, contextualized this risk by stating that hotels have always sought direct channels, including via Google, and he doesn't foresee a 'giant shift' due to LLMs. He emphasized Booking Holdings' continued value proposition, including trust, superior service, and the Genius loyalty program, which drives significant room nights from loyal customers. Fogel explained that the Genius program provides incremental value to both travelers and partners, making it a compelling reason for customers to book through Booking Holdings rather than directly via an LLM.

Lee Horowitz asked if Booking sees the reported weakness in the U.S. market as an opportunity to gain share, and inquired about the potential ceiling for direct booking mix and the impact of generative AI on it.

Answer

CEO Glenn Fogel affirmed that the company has historically used periods of softness to gain share and would do so again, citing successful growth in alternative accommodations as an example. Regarding direct mix, he stated it will never be 100% as acquiring new customers is essential, and noted that new agentic AI platforms could become a valuable, lower-cost source of new customer traffic in the future.

Lee Horowitz asked about the competitive risks from emerging Agentic AI platforms and the key drivers behind Booking's strong growth in alternative accommodations.

Answer

CEO Glenn Fogel and CFO Ewout Steenbergen addressed the AI risk by highlighting the company's history of adaptation, its vast proprietary data, and the economic incentive for AI developers to partner with Booking for monetization rather than compete. Regarding alternative accommodations, they attributed the outperformance to the integrated platform that allows travelers to compare all lodging types, noting that this segment is growing faster than traditional lodging in all regions.

Lee Horowitz questioned whether the growth in alternative accommodations is bringing in new, incremental customers or cannibalizing existing hotel demand. He also asked if the business can sustain fixed operating expense leverage for many years.

Answer

CEO Glenn Fogel stated his belief that alternative accommodations are bringing in incremental customers, particularly in Europe, and that the true incrementality comes from the superior value proposition of the connected trip. CFO Ewout Steenbergen confirmed a significant opportunity for sustained operating leverage but noted it will be balanced against reinvestment in growth initiatives.

Lee Horowitz of Deutsche Bank questioned the drivers behind the ad revenue's resilience despite stable ad penetration, asking for an update on the CPG spending environment. He also inquired about the factors supporting the recent acceleration in the online grocery industry's overall digital penetration.

Answer

CEO & Chair Fidji Simo stated that while large CPGs face uncertainty and are optimizing for profitability, this has created an opportunity for emerging and challenger brands to increase their spend and gain share, supporting ad revenue resilience. Regarding industry growth, Simo noted that price stabilization has been a positive factor, but the primary driver is the massive, underpenetrated TAM, with brands recognizing the critical need to capture customers as they shift to online grocery.

Lee Horowitz inquired about the extent of price parity across Instacart's retailer network and asked if an economic slowdown might accelerate its adoption among grocery partners.

Answer

CEO Fidji Simo explained that retailers with price parity are growing faster on the platform. She noted that adoption is becoming more nuanced, with grocers implementing granular strategies like offering parity on key items or for loyalty members. Instacart's role is to provide the tools and data to help retailers understand the long-term market share gains that can result from strategic pricing, which could be a compelling argument in any economic environment.

Lee Horowitz requested an update on the retail business's growth and economics, and asked about the company's strategy for drone delivery, including partnerships versus building in-house.

Answer

CEO & Chair Tony Xu described the retail business as sizable and fast-growing but still in its infancy, similar to where grocery was in 2021, with a long way to go in product development. On drones, he expressed excitement about recent regulatory progress in the U.S. and mentioned successful partnerships with companies like Google Wing. He stressed that success requires solving the entire end-to-end system, as the vehicle itself is only a small part of the complexity, and DoorDash has strong points of view after eight years of work in the area.

Lee Horowitz asked if CPG advertising partners are expected to increase their spending on DoorDash due to its strong grocery volume growth. He also asked about the company's most defensible advantages in the competitive grocery delivery market.

Answer

CEO Tony Xu confirmed that CPG advertisers are increasingly excited about the platform due to its scale and ability to offer a combined view across both restaurant and retail categories. For grocery defense, he stressed that building the best product to drive retention is key, noting DoorDash is now the top entry point for new-to-category customers. CFO Ravi Inukonda added that merchants also value the incremental sales driven by the platform.

Lee Horowitz of Deutsche Bank asked about the drivers of the second-half 2025 forecast, questioning if the low single-digit growth implies ongoing share gains and what is needed to return to the long-term growth algorithm. He also inquired about the specifics and payback period of increased sales and marketing investments.

Answer

CEO Paul Abbott confirmed that the company expects continued share gains in the second half of the year. He explained that the increased sales and marketing investments are a direct response to the lower-growth environment, aimed at accelerating the impact of net new wins, particularly within the SME customer segment.

Lee Horowitz from Deutsche Bank inquired about the intra-quarter evolution of the macro environment, whether conditions have stabilized, and what client conversations indicate about expectations for the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Paul Abbott described a varied environment by sector, with most clients in a 'wait-and-see' mode, evidenced by only a 6% change in travel policies. He highlighted the Meetings and Events business as a positive leading indicator, with bookings and spend for 2025 up year-over-year and flat cancellations, supporting a thesis of a 'weaker but stable' environment.

Lee Horowitz of Deutsche Bank asked about any legal precedents for the CWT deal, where a UK regulator approved a merger while the US DOJ sought to block it. He also questioned if post-election business enthusiasm has impacted 2025 travel expectations and been factored into guidance.

Answer

Chief Legal Officer Eric Bock stated that while there is no specific precedent, the UK CMA's positive provisional finding is a helpful factor in their case with the DOJ. CEO Paul Abbott acknowledged a post-election uptick in growth rates but noted that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty tempers long-term optimism. He confirmed the 2025 outlook assumes a continuation of the current, below-norm GDP growth environment.

Lee Horowitz of Deutsche Bank questioned if a healthier macro environment could make SME growth a key lever for accelerating overall performance and asked for quantification of cost savings from AI and automation technologies.

Answer

CEO Paul Abbott agreed that improved economic conditions would boost the SME segment, but also highlighted that the company is actively investing in its SME sales and marketing channels to drive share gains independent of the macro environment. Regarding AI, he stated it is a critical lever for achieving their committed margin expansion of at least 100 basis points annually, alongside other automation. While not providing a specific dollar figure for AI savings, he pointed to the quarter's 300 basis points of margin expansion and low operating expense growth as evidence of its significant impact.

Lee Horowitz from Deutsche Bank asked if the wide performance gap between U.S. and international GMV is purely due to macro factors. He also sought a deeper understanding of the eBay Live opportunity, including market size, user signals, and incrementality.

Answer

President & CEO Jamie Iannone attributed the international underperformance primarily to the challenging macro environment in Europe. Regarding eBay Live, he described it as a major 2025 focus with strong user interest beyond collectibles into luxury. He highlighted the authenticity of sellers and community engagement as key differentiators, viewing it as a powerful tool with significant long-term potential for the enthusiast community.

Lee Horowitz inquired about the drivers of the 2025 GMV growth outlook, particularly the expected performance of focus categories versus the core business, and asked for more details on the Facebook Marketplace partnership, including its economics and potential impact.

Answer

CEO Jamie Iannone expressed confidence in the continued momentum of focus categories, which grew 6% in Q4, noting that P&A has seen mid-single-digit growth for two years. He described the Facebook partnership as a way to meet customers where they are and broaden seller reach, clarifying it is not a simple ad buy but that it is too early to detail specific economic or ASP impacts.

Lee Horowitz questioned whether the 2025 financial framework includes an expansion of focus categories and asked about eBay's competitive strategy in collectibles and fashion against scaled rivals.

Answer

CEO Jamie Iannone declined to preannounce new focus categories for competitive reasons but noted that horizontal investments like AI benefit all categories. On competition, he expressed confidence in eBay's position in collectibles, citing the combined strength of TCGplayer, Golden, and the core platform, which serves the full spectrum of the market. He emphasized innovations like authentication and the PSA partnership as key differentiators that support an open marketplace.

Lee Horowitz questioned whether Etsy's 2025 product priorities can drive incremental GMS to offset consumer headwinds from competitors focused on price and speed, or if a broader market improvement is necessary for growth.

Answer

CEO Josh Silverman acknowledged that improved consumer confidence would help but emphasized that Etsy has agency and will not compete in a race to the bottom on price and speed. Instead, the strategy is to lean into Etsy's differentiation by elevating the best, highest-quality, and most artisanal items. He noted that new LLM capabilities are making it easier to identify and surface these unique products, which he believes positions Etsy well to compete effectively regardless of the macro environment.

Lee Horowitz asked about the most obvious levers to stabilize declining gross additions and for context on the potential upper limit for Connected Fitness product gross margins.

Answer

CEO Peter Stern stated the key to stabilizing the member base is to "super serve" existing members, pointing to improved member support scores and efforts to drive multi-discipline engagement, which significantly reduces churn. CFO Liz Coddington added that while Connected Fitness gross margins can continue to expand through product mix and promotion discipline, she would not provide a specific long-term target, but expects to maintain double-digit margins for the remainder of fiscal 2025.