Lucas Beaumont • UBS

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EVP & CFO Greg Cameron attributed the SG&A increase to two discrete items: legal fees for the BluePoint JV closing and adjustments to variable compensation accruals based on strong performance. EVP & COO Christopher Bohn explained that higher controllable costs were driven by unplanned outages at two facilities and the resulting increased logistics costs to meet customer commitments amid tight inventory.

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CEO Tony Will highlighted that Russian fertilizer enters the U.S. tariff-free, while EVP Bert Frost noted that tariffs on other countries will shift trade flows and likely move U.S. prices closer to Brazil parity. COO Christopher Bohn confirmed that for Blue Point, CF will receive a fee for managing common facilities and the 45Q tax credits will be split among partners based on equity percentage.

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EVP & CFO Gregory Cameron stated that funding would start with cash on hand and cash from operations, noting the annual commitment is manageable given the company's strong free cash flow. CEO W. Will emphasized that robust cash generation in 2024 and a strong 2025 pricing outlook provide significant financial flexibility for the project.

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President & CEO Ken Seitz reiterated that the market is expected to remain in balance, with project delays offsetting some new supply. He noted that Nutrien and a few other producers have marginal expansion capability. He restated that Nutrien's plan is to maintain market share by growing with the market and bringing on personnel as needed, leveraging the flexibility of its network rather than needing to 'push a button' far in advance.

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President and CEO Kenneth Seitz noted that while the company is covered for the current year, it is watching the U.S.-China trade dispute closely, as many products have exemptions but others do not. Executive Jeff Tarsi elaborated that 98% of proprietary crop protection products are post-patent and are multi-sourced, including from China and India, as both finished goods and active ingredients. He stated that price increases are expected but the impact is not material for 2025, with plans to pass through costs to customers.

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Chief Economist Jason Newton responded, noting that while European gas prices are volatile, the cost curve is expected to remain above pre-war levels due to Europe's reliance on imported LNG. He pointed out that European gas storage levels are low after a normal winter and will need to be rebuilt, supporting prices. Furthermore, over 20% of European ammonia capacity remains shut down, with some closures likely permanent. With limited new global supply additions, Newton expects the supply-demand balance to tighten over the medium term.

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Jeff Tarsi, EVP & President of Retail, outlined three key growth buckets to reach the $1.9-$2.1 billion target: 1) Continued >10% annual growth in proprietary products, 2) Steady growth in core North American and Australian operations via optimization and tuck-ins, and 3) The stabilization and recovery of the Brazil business.

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CFO Matthew Preston clarified that the net production decrease for 2026 is 30,000 tons, after accounting for a 15,000-ton shift from 2025. He noted that while weather impacts are temporary, the Amax issue presents a medium-term challenge until a new injection well strategy is executed. Preston projected a potential 8-10% increase in cost per ton for 2026 due to lower fixed cost absorption, which CEO Kevin Crutchfield added could be partially offset by a stronger pricing environment.

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Zachry Adams, VP of Sales and Marketing, explained that Q2 pricing reflects the realization of Q1's increases and that prior quarter pricing was elevated by older contracts. John Galassini, VP of Operations, attributed production forecasts to the ramp-up of recent capital projects. CFO Matt Preston stated that Trio's current low costs fully reflect recent efficiencies and expects a 5-10% cost increase in H2 2025. CEO Kevin Crutchfield highlighted his focus on maintaining consistency, predictability, and positive trends in core assets.

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VP of Sales and Marketing, Zachry Adams, explained that global potash price strength is due to supportive market dynamics, with benefits for Intrepid expected to be realized more in Q2 due to Q1 volumes being pre-contracted. On tariffs, he noted it was too early to determine the impact. CFO Matt Preston added that while production will be flat in 2025, another significant improvement in unit costs is anticipated in the second half of the year as the Wendover facility's upgrades come online.

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Zachry Adams, VP of Sales and Marketing, addressed demand, stating that current potash prices offer good value to growers, who are maintaining normal application rates to maximize yield. CFO Matt Preston handled the cost and oilfield questions, explaining that potash costs are on a positive trajectory to improve 20% from 2023 levels as production increases, though some quarterly variability will remain. For Oilfield Solutions, Preston clarified that the strong Q3 was due to a specific large project and that margins are expected to revert to the more moderate rates seen in the first half of 2024.

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President and CEO Bruce Bodine reaffirmed the full-year guidance of 7.2 to 7.6 million tonnes. He expressed confidence in achieving full capacity output in the second half, noted there is upside to a 2 million tonne quarterly rate, and explicitly stated they are not guiding toward the low end of the range.

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Bruce Bodine, President and CEO, stated that any tariffs would likely be borne by downstream customers but does not expect significant demand destruction due to strong potash affordability. Jenny Wang, EVP of Commercial, clarified that the recent price momentum will be partially reflected in Q1 earnings, with a more significant impact expected in Q2.

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Frank Sullivan, Chair and CEO, explained that continued modest growth in CPG and PCG, a bottoming out in SPG, and easier comps in the Consumer segment support the second-half outlook, with Consumer's performance being the key variable. For the DIY market, he stated that nothing has structurally changed but the market is in a unique circumstance due to a 30-year low in housing turnover. He believes that as interest rates improve and turnover picks up, the positive dynamics for DIY products will return.

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CEO Haitham Khouri attributed the strong Q2 volume to three factors: a more proactive aerial attack posture from customers, Perimeter's own significant investments in air base capacity, and a fire distribution weighted toward the end of the quarter when more assets were available. He noted that high incremental margins were driven by profitable new business in suppressants, productivity gains reducing costs, and value-based pricing. While acknowledging a strong start to Q3, he cautioned against extrapolation, stating that in a like-for-like volume scenario, earnings power is higher but the quarter is far from over.

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