Luisa Belin

Luisa Belén inquired about Ecopetrol's production perspectives for Q25 and the envisioned production growth profile for 2026, considering oil price volatility. She also asked about a normalized level of refining EBITDA per barrel and the steps Ecopetrol plans to take to achieve these levels.

Answer

Corporate VP of Hydrocarbons Rafael Guzmán stated that Ecopetrol expects to be at the higher end of its 740,000-750,000 barrels per day guidance for 2025. For 2026, while the investment plan is still being finalized, he anticipates production levels similar to 2025, factoring in expected oil price declines. VP of Refining Felipe Trujillo outlined five key elements to improve refining EBITDA and yields: operating availability, utilization factor, sustained load increases, maximization of valuable products, and cost reduction, aiming for good yields in 2026.

Luisa Belén asked about Ecopetrol's production, noting it remained flat year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, and sought perspectives for Q25 production and the envisioned production growth profile for 2026 amid oil price volatility. She also inquired about refining margins, which showed sequential improvement, asking for a normalized level of refining EBITDA per barrel and the steps to reach these levels.

Answer

Rafael Guzmán, Corporate VP of Hydrocarbons, stated that production to date is 751,000 bpd, expecting to be at the higher end of the 740,000-750,000 bpd range for year-end 2025. For 2026, the plan is being developed, considering oil price falls, but a similar production range to 2025 is expected. Felipe Trujillo, VP of Refining, explained that post-overhauls, the focus is on operating availability, utilization factor, sustained load increase, maximization of valuable products, and cost decrease, which should ensure good yields for 2026 in favorable differential scenarios.

Luisa Belin asked for clarification on the drivers behind the working capital losses in Q3, expectations for working capital and free cash flow in Q4, the factors contributing to the decline in lifting costs, and the outlook for Q4 CapEx relative to annual guidance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Horacio Marín attributed lifting cost reductions to exiting mature fields, increased Vaca Muerta production, and efficiency efforts, expecting costs to remain low. He anticipates year-end CapEx to be slightly below guidance. VP of Finance Pedro Kearney detailed Q3 working capital losses of $360 million, citing natural gas sales seasonality, extended collection days, positive downstream stock variation, OpEx/CapEx lags from divested fields, and a decrease in selling bond market position.

Luisa Belin asked for more color on the drivers of working capital losses in Q3, expectations for working capital and free cash flow in Q4, the factors behind the decline in lifting costs, and the outlook for Q4 2025 CapEx versus annual guidance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Horacio Marín attributed lifting cost reductions to exiting mature fields, increased Vaca Muerta production, and efficiency gains, expecting costs to remain low. He noted that year-end CapEx is projected to be slightly below initial guidance due to better-than-expected production. VP of Finance Pedro Kearney detailed Q3's negative working capital of $360 million, citing natural gas sales seasonality, longer collection days, positive downstream stock variation, OpEx/CapEx lags from divested fields, and a decrease in selling bond market position.