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    Luiz Carvalho

    Senior Equity Analyst at UBS

    Luiz Carvalho is a Senior Equity Analyst at UBS, specializing in coverage of the Latin American oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors with a focus on major companies such as Ecopetrol and Braskem. He is recognized for his deep financial analysis and investment recommendations, with a public track record as a UBS analyst and visible participation in industry panels, though specific performance metrics such as ranking percentages or average investor returns are not disclosed publicly. Carvalho began his analyst career prior to UBS, with evidence of coverage roles at other leading financial institutions; he has established expertise since at least 2021 and maintains ongoing coverage into 2025. His professional credentials include established equity research experience and compliance with industry regulatory standards for analysts, as indicated by his continued role at UBS and industry visibility in major company coverage and investor relations forums.

    Luiz Carvalho's questions to PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO (PBR) leadership

    Luiz Carvalho's questions to PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO (PBR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho asked for a quantification of cost savings from FPSO simplification and questioned the company's ideal maximum leverage level, given the recent increase.

    Answer

    Renata Baruzzi, Executive Director of Engineering, stated their expectation is for new rig costs to be below $3.5 billion. Fernando Melgarejo, Executive Director of Finance and IR, clarified that 70% of the company's leverage is from leasing tied to revenue-generating assets and that the company remains committed to operating within its $75 billion gross debt ceiling.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO (PBR) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho asked for an update on the 2024-2028 strategic plan, focusing on potential structural changes beyond energy transition and the progress of renewable asset acquisitions. He also sought clarity on the internationalization strategy for upstream assets, particularly regarding the focus area and operational role.

    Answer

    CFO Sergio Leite confirmed that energy transition projects are moving from 'analysis' to 'confirmed' CapEx as they mature. Energy Transition Director Mauricio Tolmasquim added that they are analyzing a large portfolio of wind and solar projects for potential partnerships. Exploration Director Joelson Mendes specified the international focus is on the Atlantic Basin, rebuilding databases, and working with partners, with the operational role depending on the opportunity.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to BRASKEM (BAK) leadership

    Luiz Carvalho's questions to BRASKEM (BAK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho asked for context on Braskem's current position on the global cost curve, given competitive pressures from new gas-based players and internal challenges like the Alagoas event. He also questioned the company's leverage, asking if a prolonged down-cycle could turn a leverage problem into a liquidity problem, particularly concerning the availability of its standby credit facility.

    Answer

    Executive Felipe Montoro Jens acknowledged the high leverage but stated the company's transformation plan and pursuit of government incentives are designed to improve cash flow and meet obligations. He affirmed the credit line is available and has been used in past crises. Executive Rosana Avolio detailed that while U.S. ethane has pressured its cost position, Braskem's combined Brazilian assets are in the third or fourth quartile, and feedstock flexibilization is key to improving this. Executive Roberto Ramos added that the Mexico cracker is first-quartile and stressed that the multi-billion dollar Alagoas liability was an extraordinary event that significantly impacted Braskem's financial position compared to peers.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to BRASKEM (BAK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho asked for context on Braskem's position in the global cost curve, noting a loss of competitiveness in recent years. He also questioned the company's leverage, asking if a delayed cycle recovery could turn the current leverage issue into a more critical liquidity problem, and inquired about covenants on its standby credit line.

    Answer

    Executive Felipe Montoro Jens acknowledged the high leverage but affirmed the company does not have a liquidity problem, outlining a strategy to deleverage by expanding EBITDA via the transformation plan and liability management. Executives Rosana Avolio and Roberto Ramos detailed the company's cost curve position, explaining that while naphtha-based assets faced pressure, they are being made more competitive through feedstock flexibility. They noted the Mexico cracker is in the first quartile and highlighted the unique financial impact of the Alagoas liability compared to peers.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to BRASKEM (BAK) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho asked how Braskem is preparing for a prolonged challenging environment with compressed spreads, and inquired about the feedstock outlook, particularly the availability of natural gas and ethane in Brazil.

    Answer

    Executive Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas explained that the company's preparation for a downcycle has been ongoing for over a year, involving cost reductions, CapEx management, and asset monetization. On feedstock, he highlighted the high cost of Brazilian natural gas versus the U.S. and noted the significant potential to increase domestic ethane supply from pre-salt gas, which would require investment and regulatory support to become a reality.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to BRASKEM (BAK) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho from UBS asked how Braskem is preparing for a potentially prolonged challenging scenario in 2025 with compressed spreads. He also inquired about the feedstock outlook, particularly for naphtha and ethane, and the potential for increased gas availability in Brazil.

    Answer

    Executive Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas explained that preparations for a difficult environment have been underway for over a year, involving hundreds of actions across cost reduction, CapEx discipline, and supplier negotiations. On feedstocks, he highlighted that Brazilian natural gas costs are seven times higher than in the U.S. He noted the potential for more ethane from pre-salt gas but emphasized that it requires significant investment and regulatory support to become available for the industry.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to BRASKEM (BAK) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked how Braskem is preparing for a potentially prolonged challenging scenario in 2025, including liability management and capacity decisions. Also inquired about the outlook for feedstock amid global rationalization and the dynamics of the natural gas/ethane market in Brazil.

    Answer

    The executive responded that their forecasts already assume a lower global growth scenario and that financial preservation initiatives are ongoing. Regarding Brazilian gas, they highlighted the opportunity to lower methane (energy) costs, which are much higher than in the US. For ethane (feedstock), more extraction from the gas stream is needed, requiring investment and regulatory support, with the potential Rio de Janeiro expansion being a key project.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS (UGP) leadership

    Luiz Carvalho's questions to ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS (UGP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho of BTG Pactual asked about the market share versus margin trade-off at Ipiranga, questioning if the current share level is considered ideal. He also asked if Hidrovias's strong quarterly performance is sustainable and inquired about Ultrapar's long-term capital allocation plans for the company, such as a potential delisting.

    Answer

    An Ultrapar executive clarified that Ipiranga's market share is a consequence of an active decision to avoid the low-profitability spot market, not a primary objective itself. Regarding Hidrovias, he noted its results are driven by the crop cycle and river conditions, implying variability. He explicitly stated that Ultrapar has no plans to take Hidrovias private or delist its shares from the stock market.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS (UGP) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho questioned Ultrapar's capital allocation priorities, including potential acquisitions, CapEx, and shareholder returns, given its comfortable leverage. He also asked for initial impressions and strategic opportunities related to the new Hidrovias investment.

    Answer

    Executive Leonardo Linden reiterated the company's disciplined approach to capital allocation. Regarding Hidrovias, he noted it is a separate public company and deferred detailed comments, but highlighted the long-term strategic value. He mentioned more information would be available at the company's Investor Day on September 6.

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    Luiz Carvalho's questions to Cosan (CSAN) leadership

    Luiz Carvalho's questions to Cosan (CSAN) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Luiz Carvalho asked for more details on liability management priorities at the holding company level, including the potential Moove IPO, uncertainties around Compass's Subida da Serra project, and the future size of the Vale stake. He also inquired about the wide holding company discount and potential actions to achieve a fairer asset pricing.

    Answer

    Rodrigo Alves, an executive, responded that leverage is a top priority and that urgent liability management was completed in the first half of the year, extending the debt profile with no significant maturities until 2027. Regarding the portfolio, he stated the current 4.1% stake in Vale is the focus, with no plans to increase it. Alves acknowledged the holding company discount is a concern, which the company is addressing through deleveraging and disciplined project execution to create value.

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