Maksim Rakhlenko

Maksim Rakhlenko of TD Cowen asked about the tariff assumptions embedded in the 2025 guidance and potential one-time supply chain costs. He also inquired about quarter-to-date demand and backlog conversion.

Answer

Gary Friedman, executive, clarified that guidance only includes pre-existing tariffs and it's too early to model costs for a supply chain re-architecture. Jack Preston, executive, noted the demand-revenue gap normalized in Q4, with revenue up 18% and demand up 17%. Management also stated they will no longer provide forward-looking demand guidance, shifting focus to revenue guidance.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked for an update on the progress of resetting in-store assortments, which was previously stated to be around 50% complete, and also inquired about the status of promotional activity and the drivers of the recent product margin inflection.

Answer

CEO Gary Friedman and executive Stefan Duban indicated that the gallery reset is still in its early stages, estimating it's about 35-40% complete. Friedman characterized the company as being in the middle of its transition, with the key positive indicators being growing demand and inflecting margins, rather than the level of clearance activity. He noted the company is in a deliberately 'inefficient stage' to support the transformation.

Maksim Rakhlenko of TD Cowen asked for more clarity on the merchandise margin outlook for the remainder of the year, questioning if the 220 basis point headwind in Q1 was a high watermark.

Answer

Executive Jeff Howie responded that the company does not guide specific line items but reiterated the full-year operating margin guidance, which is materially flat excluding the 53rd week. He acknowledged expected gross margin pressure from tariffs but stated it would be offset by SG&A savings. Howie expressed confidence that the company's 6-point tariff mitigation plan will allow it to absorb these costs, which is why guidance was reiterated despite new tariff announcements.

Maksim Rakhlenko of TD Cowen asked for more clarity on the merchandise margin outlook for the remainder of the year, questioning if the 220 basis point headwind in Q1 should be considered a high watermark.

Answer

CFO Jeff Howie stated that while the company does not provide specific line-item guidance, the full-year operating margin outlook remains materially flat. He acknowledged that tariff headwinds are expected to pressure gross margins but will be offset by SG&A savings. Howie expressed confidence that the company's 6-point mitigation plan will absorb these incremental costs.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked for more color on the merchandise margin outlook for the remainder of the year and whether the 220 basis point headwind in Q1 should be considered a high watermark.

Answer

CFO Jeff Howie reiterated that the company does not provide specific line-item guidance but is maintaining its full-year operating margin forecast. He acknowledged expected gross margin pressure from tariffs but expressed confidence that this would be offset by SG&A leverage and the company's 6-point tariff mitigation plan, allowing them to absorb incremental tariff costs.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked for more color on the merchandise margin outlook for the remainder of the year and whether the 220 basis point headwind in Q1 should be considered a high watermark.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jeff Howie reiterated that the company does not guide specific line items but is maintaining its full-year operating margin guidance, which is materially flat. He acknowledged that tariff headwinds are expected to pressure gross margin but will be offset by SG&A savings and the company's 6-point tariff mitigation plan, giving them confidence in their full-year outlook.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked about the potential for gross margin expansion in 2025 across supply chain, product margins, and occupancy, if the impact of tariffs were to be excluded.

Answer

CFO Jeff Howie clarified that the operating margin guidance of 17.4% to 17.8% already includes the full impact of known tariffs. He stated that while tariffs create headwinds, these will be offset by ongoing supply chain efficiencies and SG&A savings. Howie emphasized that significant opportunities remain to improve supply chain metrics like returns and damages, noting that while margins might have been higher without tariffs, the guidance reflects the current reality.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked for confirmation that the regular-price business again outperformed the discounted business in the quarter and sought key learnings from this trend.

Answer

CEO Laura Alber confirmed that regular-priced sales are outperforming because the company is substantially reducing its promotional activity. She explained that this strategy benefits margins and enhances customer trust and pricing integrity, as shoppers do not need to wait for a sale to get a fair price.

Maksim Rakhlenko of TD Cowen inquired about learnings from the non-promotional strategy regarding customer price consciousness and asked for a bridge between the current year's operating margin guidance and the long-term target.

Answer

CEO Laura Alber responded that customers are not waiting for promotions and are responding well to newness at mid-to-high price points. CFO Jeff Howie stated that the current full-year guidance of 17.4%-17.8% is in the middle of their long-term mid-to-high teens target, demonstrating the sustainability of their profitability model even with sales pressures.

Maksim Rakhlenko requested more color on the merchandise margin outlook for the remainder of the year, asking if the 220 basis point headwind in Q1 should be considered a high watermark.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jeff Howie reiterated that the company does not provide specific line-item guidance but is maintaining its full-year operating margin forecast. He acknowledged expected gross margin pressure from tariffs but expressed confidence that this would be offset by SG&A savings and the company's 6-point tariff mitigation plan. This confidence allows them to absorb incremental tariff costs while reiterating guidance.

Maksim Rakhlenko from TD Cowen requested more detail on the merchandise margin outlook for the remainder of the year, asking if the Q1 headwind represented a high watermark.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jeff Howie stated that while the company does not guide specific P&L lines, it is reiterating its full-year operating margin guidance. He acknowledged tariff headwinds on gross margin but expressed confidence that these would be offset by SG&A leverage and the company's 6-point tariff mitigation plan.

Maksim Rakhlenko of TD Cowen asked for the strategy behind pricing decisions for exclusive brands amidst tariffs and inquired about the competitive landscape, particularly the health of smaller competitors, and Boot Barn's positioning for market share gains.

Answer

CEO John Hazen explained that exclusive brand pricing decisions are made style-by-style, not by category, focusing on psychological price points like keeping a popular boot under $200. He noted that as third-party prices rise, Boot Barn's exclusive brands will become more attractive, creating an opportunity to gain share. Regarding the competitive set, Hazen stated that larger competitors remain rational and he has not yet seen signs of distress from mom-and-pop stores, though he acknowledged potential future challenges for them.

Maksim Rakhlenko inquired about the company's strategy for store density, cannibalization, and market share growth. He also asked if there were any planned pivots in the product assortment between fashion and function.

Answer

CFO Jim Watkins explained that cannibalization is factored into new store models and has been manageable, allowing for high density in urban markets. Interim CEO John Hazen added that growth comes from both taking share and increasing spend from existing customers, and stated he is happy with the current assortment and is not planning a major shift toward fashion.

Maksim Rakhlenko inquired about the new store comp waterfall and its lift to the overall business, and also asked how the ladies' assortment has evolved following a team change.

Answer

CFO Jim Watkins noted that second-year comp stores outperform the chain average by 3-5 percentage points, but it's too early to call it a major tailwind. Chief Digital Officer John Hazen explained the ladies' boot assortment was reset to be more functional and include better opening price points, which has driven strong results, while denim has fueled apparel growth.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked about the historical seasonality of member joins, specifically if Q1 would still represent about 60% of the year's total. He also inquired about the expected cadence of churn following the full rollout of 'Click to Cancel' in Q2.

Answer

CFO Jay Stasz stated that the historical 60% Q1 join relationship has not held true post-COVID and should not be used as an anchor. Regarding 'Click to Cancel,' he confirmed the rollout is underway to meet the May 14 deadline and is factored into the 2025 outlook. He noted the largest impact on churn typically occurs in the first couple of months before normalizing. CEO Colleen Keating added that a small test indicated the feature could potentially lift join conversions due to increased consumer confidence.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked where management has the most conviction in its strategic plan, what has been most surprising from franchisee conversations, and for color on the expected cadence of comparable sales throughout the year.

Answer

CEO Colleen Keating expressed confidence in the strategic imperatives and the resources allocated to them, highlighting the pride and commitment to quality she's observed from franchisees. She noted their high opt-in rate (65%) for new strength equipment as a sign of confidence. CFO Jay Stasz added that comps will continue to be largely rate-driven through June, after which they will be driven by a mix of rate and member trends. He said a decision on a broader 'click-to-cancel' rollout has not been made.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked for the expected split between price and member growth within the projected low-to-mid-single-digit lift from the price increase. He also inquired about the new club sales ramp and the target mix between corporate and franchise clubs.

Answer

CFO Tom Fitzgerald explained that the lift from the price increase varies based on a club's existing Black Card member mix. He detailed the new club comp ramp as starting in the 40%+ range in year one, then moderating to teens and single digits. He also confirmed that a 10% corporate-owned club mix remains the company's target.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked about the current pricing environment, competitive actions, and whether the pricing component of the average ticket accelerated during the second quarter.

Answer

CEO Lori Flees reported a stable competitive pricing environment but expects industry marketing spend to rise for the summer season. She expressed confidence in Valvoline's ability to continue winning market share. Flees clarified that while the pricing component of ticket was strong, it did not accelerate, with premiumization and net pricing being roughly equal contributors.

Maksim Rakhlenko of TD Cowen asked how differentiated Floor & Decor's sourcing mix is compared to its peers, particularly regarding China dependency, and whether its nimbleness provides a significant competitive advantage.

Answer

Executive Ersan Sayman stated the company believes its China dependency is at a favorable rate compared to competitors and that its diversification across many countries is a key advantage, allowing it to adjust to geopolitical risks. CEO Tom Taylor added that he believes the sourcing model is a significant competitive advantage that will become more pronounced the longer the current environment lasts, potentially pressuring independent retailers who rely on middlemen.

Maksim Rakhlenko asked for the comparable sales growth for medi-spas and how usage of these high-ticket services might be affected by a softer economic backdrop. He also requested a historical perspective on how the business performed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Answer

Executive Leonard Fluxman stated that medi-spa services continue to grow, representing 8-9% of service revenue, with no signs of deteriorating demand despite the higher price point. Regarding the GFC, he recalled it was a short but severe downturn where the business fared relatively well, with the primary impact being on retail attachment, which required some discounting—a measure not currently being used.

Maksim Rakhlenko inquired about the company's pricing strategy for services into 2025, consumer tolerance for higher prices, and whether the 2024 EBITDA margin serves as a sustainable base for future growth.

Answer

CEO Leonard Fluxman noted that while major pricing actions were limited this year, there are opportunities for smaller price increases in 2025 and 2026, particularly as new, higher-value services are introduced. CFO Stephen Lazarus described the 2024 margin as a solid 'jumping off point' for future incremental improvements, expressing optimism for 2025 without providing specific numbers.

Maksim Rakhlenko inquired about the implied fourth-quarter guidance, which seemed potentially conservative, and asked about the capital allocation strategy between dividend growth, debt paydown, and share repurchases.

Answer

CFO Stephen Lazarus explained that Q4 is a seasonally softer quarter due to ship repositioning, which is reflected in the guidance. Regarding capital allocation, he emphasized a balanced approach, utilizing flexibility between debt paydown, the new dividend, and opportunistic share repurchases, adding that the company is comfortable carrying its current manageable debt level.