Manan Gosalia

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley sought more clarity on the downward revision to Net Interest Income (NII) guidance, questioning why higher payoffs of low-yielding loans didn't result in a better outlook. He also asked for the yield on new C&I loans.

Answer

Senior Executive Vice President & CFO Lee Smith explained the NII change was driven by both lower loan volumes and a rate impact, as some loans that had reset to higher rates were also paying off. He noted that new C&I loans are being originated at a spread to SOFR ranging from 175 to 300 basis points.

Manan Gosalia inquired about Valley National Bancorp's biggest white spaces for growth, focusing on areas, subsegments, and geographies for investment beyond healthcare C&I and capital call. He also asked about the expense outlook for 2026, how much investment is already in the run rate, and the ability to drop NIM expansion benefits to the bottom line.

Answer

Gino Martocci, President of Commercial Banking, highlighted the Florida franchise, an opportunity to move upmarket in C&I ($150-$500M revenue space), and expanding business banking, including professional services. Patrick Smith, President of Consumer Banking, identified small business and organic retail deposit growth through branches as key opportunities, emphasizing talent acquisition. Ira Robbins, CEO, and Travis Lan, CFO, explained that an efficiency exercise created capacity for reinvestment, projecting low single-digit expense growth for 2026 and confidence in generating positive operating leverage by dropping most revenue growth to the bottom line.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked President of Commercial Banking Gino Martocci about Valley National Bancorp's biggest white space opportunities, key investment areas, and target subsegments or geographies beyond healthcare C&I and capital call. He also questioned CEO Ira Robbins and CFO Travis Lan on the 2026 expense outlook, specifically how much of the investment is already in the run rate and if NIM expansion benefits will flow to the bottom line or be reinvested.

Answer

President of Commercial Banking Gino Martocci identified opportunities in the Florida franchise, moving upmarket in C&I (targeting $150M-$500M revenue clients), business banking, and professional services. President of Consumer Banking Patrick Smith highlighted small business growth and retail deposit growth through branches. CEO Ira Robbins and CFO Travis Lan stated that an efficiency exercise allowed for front-office reinvestment, with a low single-digit expense growth rate projected for 2026, aiming to drop the majority of revenue growth to the bottom line and generate positive operating leverage.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind the strong C&I loan growth, questioning if it stemmed from an improving environment or company-specific actions. He also requested more detail on the increase in past-due loans and the bank's confidence in its credit outlook.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins attributed the C&I growth to both positive client sentiment and strategic initiatives in treasury solutions and specialty verticals like fund banking and healthcare. SEVP & CFO Travis Lan specified that fund finance and healthcare each contributed 30% of the quarter's C&I growth. EVP & Chief Credit Officer Mark Saeger explained the past-due increase was driven by three specific credits, two of which are already resolved, and expressed confidence in the outlook due to stabilized criticized and non-accrual levels.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley questioned the drivers behind the strong C&I loan growth, asking if it stemmed from an improving environment or specific company actions. He also requested more color on the quarterly increase in past-due loans and the bank's confidence in its credit outlook.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins attributed the C&I growth to both improved client sentiment and Valley's strategic investments in treasury solutions and specialty verticals like fund finance and healthcare, noting the C&I pipeline is up 30% sequentially. EVP & Chief Credit Officer Mark Saeger clarified that the increase in past-dues was driven by three specific credits, two of which (totaling ~$100 million) have already been resolved or brought current, supporting the stable credit outlook.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind the strong C&I loan growth, asking whether it was due to an improving environment or specific company actions. He also requested more detail on the increase in past-due loans and the bank's confidence in its credit outlook.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins attributed the growth to both improved client sentiment and strategic actions, noting the C&I pipeline is 30% higher than last quarter. SEVP & CFO Travis Lan specified that fund finance and healthcare C&I accounted for 60% of the quarter's growth. EVP & Chief Credit Officer Mark Saeger explained that the increase in delinquencies was driven by three credits, two of which (totaling ~$100 million) have already been resolved, reinforcing confidence in the stable credit outlook.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley questioned the drivers behind the strong C&I loan growth, asking if it was due to an improving environment or specific company actions. He also requested more detail on the increase in past-due loans and the bank's confidence in its credit outlook.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins and SEVP & CFO Travis Lan attributed the robust C&I growth to both strategic initiatives and positive client sentiment. They highlighted that 60% of the quarter's growth came from the fund finance and healthcare verticals. EVP & Chief Credit Officer Mark Saeger explained that the rise in delinquencies was driven by three specific credits, two of which (totaling ~$100 million) have already been resolved post-quarter end. He reiterated confidence in the credit outlook, pointing to stabilized criticized and non-accrual levels.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked about the key drivers of the strong C&I loan growth, questioning if it was due to an improving environment or specific company actions. He also requested more detail on the increase in past-due loans and the bank's confidence in its credit outlook.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins attributed C&I growth to both strategic initiatives in treasury solutions and specialty verticals like fund banking and healthcare, as well as positive client sentiment, noting a 30% higher C&I pipeline. SEVP & CFO Travis Lan specified that fund finance and healthcare accounted for 60% of the quarter's C&I growth. EVP & Chief Credit Officer Mark Saeger clarified that the rise in delinquencies was driven by three specific credits, two of which (totaling ~$100 million) have already been resolved, supporting a stable credit outlook.

Manan Gosalia asked for more detail on why Valley's CRE portfolio is considered insulated from tariff disruptions and which sectors might face more stress. He also sought to identify the source of lending spread compression, asking if it was from banks or private credit.

Answer

CEO Ira Robbins explained that Valley's commercial clients are generally more sensitive to interest rates and labor costs than to tariffs on materials like steel, making the CRE portfolio relatively insulated. Executive Travis Lan added that the increased competition driving spread compression on high-quality C&I deals comes primarily from other banks, whereas private credit is a more active competitor in the CRE space.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley requested more detail on the deposit cost assumptions within the Q4 Net Interest Income (NII) guidance and asked whether noninterest-bearing (NIB) deposits have reached a trough.

Answer

Executive Travis Lan explained that the bank outperformed its deposit beta models with the recent Fed cut and sees further opportunities. He expressed optimism about NIB deposits, noting a slight uptick for the first time since mid-2022 and suggesting that the current level of 22% of total deposits is likely the bottom.

Manan Gosalia inquired about the expected beta for broker and time deposits as interest rates decline, and whether a mix shift is anticipated, such as paying down higher-cost deposits with core deposit growth.

Answer

CEO Dan Rollins and CFO Valerie Toalson highlighted that Industry Bankshares' funding was heavily reliant on CDs. They expect broker deposits to move with the market and aim to reduce them. Interest-bearing deposit betas are projected around 50%, with total deposit betas between 30-40%. They anticipate a gradual mix shift of Industry deposits towards the bank's typical profile over time.

Manan Gosalia inquired about the drivers behind Cadence Bank's slightly lower revenue and loan growth guidance for the remainder of the year, noting an uptick in CRE paydowns and potentially weaker organic loan growth. He also asked about expected beta in broker and time deposits as rates decline and potential mix shifts to pay down higher-cost deposits.

Answer

CEO Dan Rollins explained that the tighter guidance reflects a shorter time horizon with better clarity, while CFO Valerie Toalson added that expense expectations align with revenue, driving operating leverage. Regarding deposits, Mr. Rollins noted Industry Bankshares' heavy CD funding and the bank's intent to improve the deposit mix over time. Ms. Toalson clarified that interest-bearing betas are expected around 50%, with total deposit betas between 30-40%, and that brokered deposits are expected to run off, primarily maturing in Q4.

Manan Gosalia asked for details on the upgraded revenue guidance, questioning if it was driven by organic growth, and sought clarity on purchase accounting assumptions for recent acquisitions. He also questioned why overall loan yields rose only one basis point despite new loans being originated at over 7%.

Answer

CEO Dan Rollins affirmed that the revenue guidance increase is supported by strong organic loan growth. CFO Valerie Toalson provided initial details on the Industry acquisition, noting the securities mark-to-market was less than half the original estimate, leading to a smaller tangible book value impact. Regarding loan yields, Ms. Toalson explained that the timing of loan payoffs muted the overall yield increase, but underlying trends support expectations for a higher NIM going forward.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley requested more detail on the updated revenue guidance, asking to separate organic growth from acquisition impacts and to clarify purchase accounting assumptions. He also questioned why overall loan yields only increased by one basis point despite new loans being originated at over 7%.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Dan Rollins confirmed the revenue guide was increased on an organic basis due to strong loan growth and pipelines. Senior EVP & CFO Valerie Toalson added that initial purchase accounting marks for the Industry deal, particularly on securities, were coming in better than the original estimate. She explained the muted loan yield increase was due to the timing of loan payoffs but expects improvement going forward.

Manan Gosalia inquired about the impact of recent macroeconomic announcements on loan pipelines and whether management has observed any changes in client behavior. He also asked for details on maturing high-cost deposits and the expected benefit from their repricing.

Answer

CEO James Rollins stated that the bank has seen very little impact on its solid loan pipelines so far, though customers are beginning to be more cautious. President Edward Braddock added that pipelines in equipment finance and CRE are the best in years, particularly in Texas and Georgia. CFO Valerie Toalson detailed that about $3.5 billion in time deposits are maturing in Q2, and new CDs are coming on at lower rates, providing an incremental benefit.

Manan Gosalia from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for details on Cadence's loan growth guidance, including assumptions for different loan segments and utilization rates. He also inquired about the expected trend for loan yields across floating, variable, and fixed-rate categories.

Answer

CEO James Rollins and executive Edward Braddock stated the loan growth outlook is supported by strong market momentum and rising loan approval levels, though the broader economy remains a wildcard. CFO Valerie Toalson addressed loan yields, noting that new loan production yields were north of 7% in Q4, which could lift the overall portfolio yield from its current 6.40%.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about the near- and medium-term drivers for Net Interest Margin (NIM), focusing on the repricing dynamics of floating, variable, and fixed-rate loans, and the potential impact of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) paydown on deposit betas.

Answer

EVP and Chief Financial Officer Valerie Toalson explained that loan yields are expected to continue rising as new and renewing loans are priced higher than the portfolio average. She noted that Q3 likely marked the peak for deposit costs, with a significant volume of CDs set to reprice lower in Q4. While optimistic, Toalson refrained from providing a specific downside deposit beta target, citing the competitive landscape. Chairman and CEO James Rollins also contributed to the discussion.

Manan Gosalia asked about the conviction that the 8K-related charge was an isolated incident, inquiring about the internal review process, the number of loans reviewed, and potential lumpy exposures to real estate funds within the NDFI book. He also followed up on the NDFI exposure details, including subcategories and high-risk areas.

Answer

Chief Credit Officer Derek Steward confirmed confidence in the incident being isolated after reviewing the portfolio and finding no similar issues. Chairman and CEO Harris Simmons emphasized the bank's strong credit history and ongoing external review to learn from the experience. Derek Steward further detailed the NDFI exposure, noting it's about 3% of total loans, well-diversified, and primarily consists of equipment leasing and capital call lines, with minimal growth over several years.

Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley inquired about the conviction that the recent 8-K charge was an isolated incident, the internal review process, the number of loans reviewed, and potential lumpy exposures to real estate funds within the NDFI book. He also asked for details on the NDFI exposure, its subcategories, and any high-risk areas.

Answer

Chief Credit Officer Derek Steward affirmed confidence in the incident being isolated after portfolio review, finding no similar issues. Chairman and CEO Harris Simmons emphasized the bank's strong credit history and ongoing external review to learn from the experience. Derek Steward further clarified that NDFI exposure is about 3% of total loans, detailed on slide 36, and is broadly diversified across equipment leasing, capital call lines, and subscription lines, noting it's a long-standing business not intended for significant growth.

Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind the more positive outlook on the small and middle-market business, and the competitive landscape for deposits. He also asked if total funding costs could continue to decline without Fed rate cuts.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Harris Simmons attributed the improved sentiment to abated tariff-related risks and a more flexible administration approach. He acknowledged the deposit market is highly competitive but emphasized the focus on total funding costs, which have declined. He noted that future margin improvement is more likely to come from asset repricing rather than further significant reductions in deposit costs without Fed action.

Manan Gosalia inquired about on-the-ground client sentiment regarding economic uncertainty and how potential tariff risks are factored into the bank's net interest income guidance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Harris Simmons described significant uncertainty among business clients due to potential trade wars, noting it's impacting investment and inventory decisions. He stated that while a reasonable amount of risk is priced into the NII outlook, loan growth expectations have tempered as businesses delay long-term decisions.

Manan Gosalia inquired about the expected progression of deposit betas, given they are already near 60% on a spot basis, and asked for the CET1 ratio including AOCI, questioning if it's a metric the bank needs to manage actively.

Answer

CFO Ryan Richards stated that deposit pricing has been in line with expectations and the bank will maintain an "athletic posture" on rates. He confirmed they are cognizant of the CET1 ratio including AOCI and are comfortable with the glide path for Basel III endgame applicability. Chairman and CEO Harris Simmons added that while AOCI will likely come back into capital, the uncertainty will probably continue to retard buyback activity until there is more clarity.

Manan Gosalia asked about the safeguards Huntington Bancshares implements to protect against alleged fraud and double pledging of collateral, and also inquired about the NDFI (Non-Deposit Financial Institutions) book and its associated risks.

Answer

Chief Credit Officer Brendan Lawlor explained that the company's aggregate moderate to low risk appetite, disciplined client selection, rigorous portfolio management, and collateral monitoring are key safeguards. CEO Steve Steinour added that a relationship-oriented approach helps avoid such situations. Regarding the NDFI book, Brendan Lawlor stated it's approximately 2% of total loans (excluding certain categories) and is characterized by a relationship approach with diversity and active management.

Manan Gosalia inquired about Huntington's confidence in its NII guidance amidst macro uncertainty and the strategy behind loan growth outpacing deposit growth in 2025.

Answer

CFO Zachary Wasserman expressed high confidence in the NII guidance, stating it will be driven by strong loan growth. He explained that the net interest margin (NIM) is expected to remain relatively flat in 2025. Wasserman noted that the bank had intentionally pre-funded anticipated loan growth with strong deposit gathering in prior periods, which now provides flexibility to manage deposit costs down while funding loan expansion.

Manan Gosalia inquired about the drivers behind the Q4 Net Interest Income (NII) guidance, which suggests a slight sequential decline, and questioned the strategy of growing deposits faster than loans instead of paying down higher-cost funding.

Answer

Zach Wasserman, Chief Financial Officer, explained the NII forecast is due to a short-term timing difference where falling asset yields from rate cuts will temporarily outpace deposit cost reductions. He confirmed the strategy is now shifting to leverage their strong deposit position to slow deposit growth, manage down funding costs, and support accelerating loan growth, with deposit balances expected to be flat sequentially in Q4.

Manan Gosalia asked for details on Huntington's strategy for managing downside deposit beta in a rate-cut environment and questioned if loan spreads were compressing due to increased competition.

Answer

CFO Zachary Wasserman explained that Huntington has already initiated its 'down beta playbook' by adjusting acquisition rates and deposit mix. He anticipates a down beta in the mid-to-high 20% range over the first year of rate cuts. Regarding loans, Wasserman noted that while the environment is competitive, loan spreads are generally flat at the product level, and the bank is focusing on growth in new, higher-spread specialty areas.

Manan Gosalia asked for clarification on the net interest income (NII) guidance, questioning the conservative deposit beta assumptions and whether they are driven by customer behavior or the need to fund accelerating loan growth.

Answer

CFO Zachary Wasserman explained that the primary driver for the NII outlook is the market's expectation of a longer pause from the Fed before rate cuts, leading to slightly higher deposit funding costs. He noted that strong deposit volumes are also a factor. CEO Stephen Steinour added that a robust commercial loan pipeline supports the strategy of actively gathering deposits at this stage of the year.

Manan Gosalia asked for insights into the Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) portfolio, particularly concerning recent headlines in asset-backed lending, corporate banking, sponsored finance, and fund finance.

Answer

Jake Munn, President of Corporate and Institutional Banking, reported record CIB origination growth, strategic realignment, and increased fee income from capital markets activities. He detailed Bank OZK's conservative approach to NDFI/lender finance, emphasizing single-lender or club deals, bottoms-up risk assessment, and third-party examinations. George Gleason, Chairman and CEO, clarified that a significant portion of NDFI loans are RESG-related with robust underwriting. Jake Munn also highlighted CIB's highly selective process, with a sub-15% pull-through rate, and its inherent diversification across 40-45 unique industries.

Manan Gosalia questioned the key drivers behind the recent increase in RESG loan repayments and sought details on the specific loans that experienced significant increases in their loan-to-value (LTV) ratios.

Answer

Chairman & CEO George Gleason attributed the RESG paydowns to a mix of factors including projects reaching stabilization, property sales, and refinancing activity. Regarding the high LTV loans, Gleason detailed three specific cases, emphasizing that in each instance the sponsor demonstrated strong support by contributing significant additional cash equity and remaining actively engaged with the project.

Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley asked about the pace of property lease-ups and sponsors' ability to support assets for longer durations. He also questioned the drivers of stable Net Interest Income (NII) and sought details on securities reinvestment rates and portfolio duration.

Answer

President Paschall Hamblen confirmed sponsors continue to support projects, citing $957 million in recent additional equity contributions. Chairman and CEO George Gleason detailed opportunistic bond purchases and favorable reinvestment prospects. CFO Tim Hicks attributed stable NII to strong loan growth and a 29 basis point reduction in the cost of interest-bearing deposits. COO Cynthia Wolfe added that deposit costs continued to fall, with a 90 basis point savings on maturing CDs in March.

Manan Gosalia asked about the significant increase in loan appraisals, seeking to understand the driving factors. He also questioned the behavior of clients whose loans have hit their interest rate floors and the expected impact on the bank's loan yield beta going forward.

Answer

Chairman and CEO George Gleason explained the accelerated appraisal process was a deliberate decision to provide market transparency, noting the portfolio's weighted average LTV remains highly conservative at 44%. President Paschall Hamblen confirmed that clients at their loan floors continue to service their debt. Gleason highlighted that with 42% of variable-rate loans projected to be at their floor after two rate cuts, the bank's NIM would benefit significantly from further cuts, making the current 0-2 cut outlook the 'worst-case scenario' for margin performance.

Manan Gosalia inquired about the relationship between loan paydowns and interest rate floors, asking which types of loans might prepay first as rates fall, and questioned if the bank would consider further reducing its loan hold limit or syndicating smaller loans.

Answer

CEO George Gleason stated that older loans with lower floors are more likely to pay off first, though payoffs mid-construction are rare. He confirmed there are no plans to reduce the hold limit further, explaining the change is about diversification. CIB President Jake Munn added that the new syndications desk enables the bank to lead deals, earn fee income, and pursue larger opportunities, complemented by new hedging and capital placement services.

Manan Gosalia inquired about M&T Bank's net charge-off (NCO) expectations for Q4, including any lumpy items, the trend into 2026, and a normalized NCO run rate. He also asked about M&T's investments in AI and technology and potential increased spending in the coming year.

Answer

Daryl Bible, SEVP and CFO, noted that Q3 NCOs were driven by two large C&I loans totaling $49 million, and while Q4 could see another lumpy item, the full-year NCOs are expected to be under 40 basis points. He anticipates little change for 2026 NCOs given the overall economy. Mr. Bible detailed significant ongoing tech investments, including a new general ledger platform, debit platform, and upgrades to commercial and consumer servicing systems, expecting costs to be controlled while revenues grow faster than expenses.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked about the board's priority between raising the dividend and executing buybacks, noting M&T's lower yield. He also requested an explanation for the five basis point NIM headwind from higher liability costs.

Answer

CFO Daryl Bible prioritized capital allocation as: 1) organic growth, 2) a strong, growing dividend (hinting at an upcoming board action), 3) M&A, and 4) buybacks. He explained the liability cost increase was not from pressure but a deliberate choice to bring in specific deposits at attractive rates (below marginal funding costs) to pay down more expensive non-core funding.

Manan Gosalia asked about the prioritization of raising the dividend versus executing share buybacks, noting M&T's dividend yield is below peers. He also sought clarification on the 5 basis point NIM headwind from higher liability costs.

Answer

CFO Daryl Bible emphasized that dividends are a high priority, second only to organic growth, and hinted at board action on the dividend this quarter. Buybacks are considered after dividends and M&A. He explained the NIM pressure was not from rising core costs but from a strategic decision to bring in new, higher-cost deposits that were still priced below their marginal funding curve, allowing them to displace more expensive non-core funding over time.

Manan Gosalia asked about the strategy for securities purchases amid curve volatility and the credit outlook for the C&I loan book, which has grown faster than peers.

Answer

Daryl Bible (executive) described a disciplined strategy of buying government-backed securities while maintaining a stable duration around 3.5 years. On C&I credit, he attributed the recent rise in criticized loans to a single idiosyncratic issue expected to resolve without loss, affirming confidence in the overall credit trajectory.

Manan Gosalia asked about M&T's capital return strategy, specifically the potential for share buybacks to exceed $2 billion, and questioned the primary drivers behind the significant reduction in criticized loans.

Answer

CFO Daryl Bible clarified that the bank is comfortable operating at an 11% CET1 ratio and that buybacks are flexible, potentially exceeding $2 billion if loan growth is weaker than planned. He attributed the $1 billion decline in criticized loans primarily to full payoffs driven by a favorable yield curve in late 2024, along with upgrades in recovering sectors like healthcare and hospitality.

Manan Gosalia questioned the trajectory of deposit betas, asking if the initial 40% down-beta would accelerate, and inquired about the strategy for funding future loan growth, specifically the role of deposits versus cash.

Answer

CFO Daryl Bible acknowledged that while the initial down-beta is 40%, it could eventually move towards the peak up-beta of 55%, depending on the pace of rate cuts. He emphasized a strategy of 'always on' deposit gathering, aiming to grow core customer deposits in line with or faster than loans to potentially reduce noncore funding, rather than primarily drawing down cash balances.

Manan Gosalia asked about Citizens Financial Group's capital markets performance, pipeline outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026, and the company's exposure and risk assessment related to private credit.

Answer

CEO Bruce Van Saun highlighted broad strength across bank lending, syndicated lending, bonds, equities, and M&A, attributing it to market participants adapting to the 'new normal.' Chair of Commercial Banking Don McCree emphasized the diversity of business flows and potential for private equity activity. Regarding private credit, Don McCree explained that Citizens lends through high-quality securitization structures with diversified collateral, noting no losses and strong protections. Bruce Van Saun added that these structures are typically investment grade with pristine loss histories.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked for an update on the commercial real estate office portfolio, given the decline in its specific reserve, and how the overall allowance for credit losses (ACL) might be managed going forward. He also inquired if Stablecoin was a focus area within the "Reimagining the Bank" initiative.

Answer

CFO John Woods reported positive credit trends, noting this was the first quarter the bank charged off against the general office reserve without needing to replenish it, signaling stabilization. Head of Commercial Banking Don McCree added that the problem loans in office are well-identified and they haven't moved a new property to workout in a year. Regarding Stablecoin, Chairman & CEO Bruce Van Saun clarified that it is not part of the "Reimagining" initiative but is being monitored within the broader payments strategy. He does not foresee a dramatic near-term impact or significant investment.

Manan Gosalia asked about the extent of loan growth from Non-Bank Financial Institution (NBFI) loans and the associated credit risk. He also inquired about the specific benefit to NIM from the first-quarter noncore loan sale.

Answer

Head of Commercial Banking Don McCree and CFO John Woods clarified that while they have NBFI exposure, the credit risk is very low due to strong, investment-grade-like structures and a focus on broad client relationships. Head of Consumer Banking Brendan Coughlin added that related private bank lending is well-structured and low-risk. Regarding the noncore sale, Woods explained its impact was already anticipated and included in the existing full-year NIM guidance provided in January.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about the impact of the 'belly of the curve' on asset and liability repricing and asked for the catalysts behind the mid-single-digit spot loan growth guidance for 2025, excluding non-core loans.

Answer

Executive John Woods explained that since the bank is net asset-sensitive, a higher belly of the curve is a net positive, with asset repricing benefits outweighing funding cost pressures. Executive Bruce Van Saun identified the Private Bank's consistent growth as the primary driver for the loan forecast. He anticipates a commercial lending pickup in the second half of the year. Woods added that a rebound in subscription line utilization from historic lows would also contribute, and noted the option to increase buybacks if loan growth disappoints.

Manan Gosalia followed up on deposit betas, asking about spot deposit rates and the expected beta trajectory deeper into the rate cut cycle. He also inquired about the asset balances subject to the front-book/back-book benefit and the potential for securities portfolio repositioning.

Answer

CFO John Woods explained that the down-cycle deposit beta, currently guided to 40% for Q4, is expected to gradually migrate toward the full-cycle beta of 50-55% as the cutting cycle progresses. CEO Bruce Van Saun added that the decline would likely accelerate later in the cycle. Woods noted that approximately $750 million each in residential mortgages and securities turn over quarterly, which is subject to the front-book/back-book benefit. He also stated that there are no current plans for a large, single securities repositioning.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked if the increased competition in lending was extending to the deposit side and also inquired about the bank's interest in M&A, given recent deal activity in Texas.

Answer

CEO Phillip Green stated that they have not seen the same competitive pressures on deposits and often retain the deposit relationship even when losing a loan on structure. He firmly dismissed any interest in M&A, emphasizing the superiority and cost-effectiveness of their organic growth strategy. He added that competitor M&A creates disruption that benefits Frost by providing opportunities to attract new customers and bankers.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked if the increased lending competition was also pressuring the deposit side of the business and inquired about the company's interest in pursuing bank M&A.

Answer

CEO Phillip Green stated that they have not seen similar competitive pressure on deposits, noting they often retain the deposit relationship even when a loan is lost on structure. Regarding M&A, he was definitive, stating Cullen/Frost is not interested in inorganic growth. He emphasized the superiority of their organic strategy, which is more cost-effective and avoids integration risks, and noted that M&A activity in their markets often creates opportunities for them to gain customers and talent.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about the sensitivity of the consumer client base to inflation and the impact of fewer-than-expected rate cuts on the NII outlook.

Answer

CEO Phillip Green responded that the consumer base has not shown unusual sensitivity, with spending and borrowing remaining stable, largely due to strong employment in their markets. CFO Dan Geddes quantified that each 25 basis point rate cut that does not occur would positively impact NII by approximately $1.7 to $1.8 million per month, noting the bank's asset sensitivity is greater on the short end of the yield curve.

Manan Gosalia questioned the mid- to high single-digit loan growth guidance for 2025, asking if the implied slowdown was due to conservatism or a higher base, and inquired about the role of potential CRE paydowns.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Phillip Green explained that while consumer and C&I loan growth are expected to remain strong, a slowdown in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) funding velocity is anticipated. Executive A. Mendez clarified that this is primarily driven by expected paydowns as construction projects stabilize and seek permanent financing or sale, rather than a decrease in demand.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked for specifics on the fixed-rate loan repricing opportunity for next year, whether the bank is seeing increased CRE paydowns as capital markets open up, and if loan velocity has increased.

Answer

Incoming CFO Dan Geddes specified that about $1 billion in fixed-rate loans are expected to reprice in 2025, moving from a back-book yield of around 5% to new rates of approximately 7.25%. CEO Phillip Green confirmed that for stabilized CRE projects, capital is available, leading to paydowns. However, lease-up challenges remain for non-stabilized projects. Dan Geddes added that a key driver of growth is new relationships, with 54% of the year-to-date loan increase coming from customers acquired in the last 12 months.

Manan Gosalia focused on the announced acquisition of American Bank, asking for details on the expected net interest income (NII) accretion, potential revenue synergies, and any anticipated loan runoff. He also inquired about capital deployment priorities following the deal, specifically the preference between further M&A and share buybacks.

Answer

CFO Asylbek Osmanov detailed that the American Bank deal is expected to be highly accretive, bringing in $85-90 million in annual NII, plus an additional $15-16 million from fair value markups, leading to a mid-single-digit increase in the overall margin. Senior Chairman & CEO David Zalman emphasized the similarity in deposit costs and core banking models, predicting minimal deposit or loan runoff. Regarding capital, Mr. Zalman stated that with significant M&A activity occurring, the company would likely use its capital for further acquisitions.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley focused on the announced acquisition of American Bank, asking for details on the expected NII accretion, potential revenue synergies, and any anticipated loan runoff. He also inquired about capital deployment priorities post-acquisition, specifically the potential for share buybacks.

Answer

Asylbek Osmonov, CFO, detailed that the American Bank acquisition is expected to be highly accretive, bringing in $85-90 million in annual NII, plus an additional $15-16 million from fair value adjustments, which would increase the overall margin by a mid-single-digit basis point amount. David Zalman, Senior Chairman & CEO, emphasized the strong cultural fit and low-cost deposit base, predicting minimal runoff. Regarding capital, Mr. Zalman stated that due to significant M&A activity, the company would likely prioritize using capital for future acquisitions over share buybacks.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley focused on the announced acquisition of American Bank, asking about the expected net interest income (NII) accretion, potential revenue synergies, and any anticipated loan runoff. He also inquired about capital deployment priorities post-acquisition, specifically the potential for share buybacks.

Answer

CFO Asylbek Osmanov detailed that the acquisition will be accretive, bringing in $85-90 million in annual NII plus an additional $15-16 million from purchase accounting marks, which could boost the overall margin by a mid-single-digit basis point amount. Senior Chairman and CEO David Zalman added that he expects minimal runoff due to the target's strong core deposit base. Regarding capital, Mr. Zalman indicated that with significant M&A activity, capital would likely be prioritized for future deals over buybacks.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley requested details on the pending American Bank acquisition, including expected NII accretion, deposit cost benefits, and potential loan runoff. He also asked about capital deployment priorities post-close.

Answer

CFO Asylbek Osmonov projected the deal would add $85-90 million in annual NII, plus $15-16 million from markups, boosting the overall margin by a mid-single-digit amount. Senior Chairman & CEO David Zalman added that he expects minimal runoff due to the banks' similar models and stated that capital would likely be prioritized for future M&A over buybacks.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind flat loan growth, the updated outlook for 2025, and whether the balance sheet would continue to shrink to pay down high-cost borrowings.

Answer

President and COO Kevin Hanigan reaffirmed the low single-digit loan growth guidance for the year, noting that the $549 million in runoff from recent acquisitions is nearly complete. Senior Chairman and CEO David Zalman and Chairman H.E. Tim Timanus Jr. added that while activity is currently sluggish, their bankers and customers remain optimistic. Regarding the balance sheet, Zalman stated that borrowings have been reduced from $3.9 billion to $2.7 billion and are unlikely to decrease much further, as the bank historically operates with a couple of billion in leverage. CFO Asylbek Osmonov mentioned they might opportunistically pay down more or begin buying securities depending on market conditions.

Manan Gosalia asked about Prosperity's Net Interest Margin (NIM) trajectory for 2025, the drivers behind expected loan growth, and how much growth is required to achieve the bank's NIM targets.

Answer

Senior Chairman and CEO David Zalman and CFO Asylbek Osmonov reiterated a 2025 NIM target of 3.25% to 3.35%, noting this forecast is based on a static balance sheet. President and COO Kevin Hanigan explained that loan growth was previously muted by the workout of loans from the FirstCapital acquisition but now anticipates low to mid-single-digit growth. Osmonov added that NIM expansion is supported by the repricing of loans and securities cash flows, which can be used to pay down higher-cost borrowings, making the target achievable even without significant loan growth.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about Prosperity Bancshares' confidence in its Net Interest Margin (NIM) guidance, the optimal interest rate scenario to achieve medium-term targets, and the sensitivity of NIM expansion to minor rate fluctuations.

Answer

Senior Chairman and CEO David Zalman reaffirmed the company's NIM projections, targeting a 3% exit rate for 2024, a 3.27% average for 2025, and 3.65% for 2026, based on specific prime rate assumptions. Zalman clarified that the NIM outlook is relatively stable with rate changes up to 200 basis points, but larger, more rapid cuts could present a challenge. He confirmed that current models continue to support the projected NIM expansion.

Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley asked about the impact of recent legislative changes on the bank's renewable energy tax credit business and potential strategies to offset an anticipated rise in the tax rate for the following year.

Answer

EVP & CFO Christopher Del Moral-Niles explained that existing investments and loan commitments are currently unaffected due to grace periods and exemptions. He expressed confidence that the bank is exploring various strategies, with the help of consultants, to potentially offset future tax rate changes in the long run.

Manan Gosalia inquired if the current environment presents a near-term or long-term growth opportunity for the bank and asked what economic conditions would prompt a pullback in loan growth.

Answer

CEO Dominic Ng characterized the situation as a long-term opportunity, stressing the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet with high capital and liquidity to navigate uncertainty. He explained that a significant economic downturn would cause the bank to pull back on lending, but the current environment is defined by uncertainty rather than substantially heightened risk.

Manan Gosalia asked about the future trajectory of deposit costs and betas, the volume of CDs repricing in upcoming quarters, and the drivers behind the C&I loan growth outlook, including the potential impact of tariffs.

Answer

CFO Christopher Del Moral-Niles confirmed the 50% deposit beta guidance, noting positive momentum as CDs reprice. He specified that $10 billion in CDs will reprice in Q1 and another $7-8 billion in Q2. On C&I growth, he cited a 5% YoY increase in commitments. Both he and CEO Dominic Ng stated that tariffs have not materially impacted growth over the last eight years, with Mr. Ng highlighting the bank's consistent 10% annual organic growth in loans and deposits despite them.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about the strategy behind deposit growth exceeding loan growth and its implications for liquidity and future funding flexibility. He also asked for the outlook on Net Interest Income (NII) and Net Interest Margin (NIM) trends, considering maturing swaps in Q1.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Dominic Ng explained that the strong, organic deposit inflows, achieved even while lowering pricing, provide greater flexibility to optimize the liability profile. On the NII guide, Ng stated they are within the range and that maturing swaps will have a positive effect in Q1, previously quantified as over a $10 million runway.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked about the competitive landscape for loan and deposit pricing and how KeyCorp expects loan spreads to trend. He also questioned how the loan loss reserve ratio might evolve with the ongoing mix shift towards C&I loans.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Christopher M. Gorman stated that loan pricing has remained flat year-over-year despite competition, crediting KeyCorp's relationship-based model. CFO Clark H. I. Khayat described deposit pricing as rational but noted they are watching competitors. Regarding reserves, Khayat explained that future levels will depend on loan growth, credit quality trends, and the macroeconomic outlook, not just the mix shift.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers of C&I loan growth and the recent uptick in utilization rates. He also asked about the interplay between capital markets activity and balance sheet lending, and sought to understand the key sensitivities and potential offsets within the 20% NII growth guidance for 2025.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Christopher Gorman attributed the broad-based C&I growth to new team traction and project-based deals, noting a slight uptick in utilization. He explained that market dislocations lead Key to opportunistically hold more capital on its balance sheet. CFO Clark Khayat detailed that the 20% NII guide is bolstered by 2024 restructuring actions and strong deposit performance. He stated that a significant pullback in C&I loans or a rapidly flattening yield curve would be needed to miss the target.

Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley questioned the willingness to conduct more securities portfolio repositioning given the strong capital levels. He also asked for the CET1 ratio target including AOCI and details on the remaining long-dated, low-yield securities.

Answer

CEO Christopher Gorman stated that while they constantly evaluate options, no further large-scale securities repositionings are planned. He also noted that new capital targets will not be set until regulatory rules are finalized. An executive confirmed that a portion of the low-yield securities still has a longer duration to work through.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley asked about KeyCorp's willingness to conduct further securities portfolio repositioning given its strong CET1 ratio, and inquired about the remaining portion of long-dated, low-yielding securities.

Answer

CEO Christopher M. Gorman responded that while the company constantly evaluates its options, it does not plan to execute another major securities repositioning on the scale of the Q3 or Q4 transactions. CFO Clark H. I. Khayat confirmed that a portion of the remaining low-yield securities still has a long duration.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley questioned the decision to increase reserves for economic uncertainty despite positive credit trends and asked about the capital allocation strategy regarding buybacks.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jamie Gregory explained the reserve increase was driven by changes in Moody's unemployment forecasts, which was more than offset by positive credit performance. He reiterated that the priority for capital is client loan growth and that buybacks were paused in Q2 to observe loan growth trends, with the goal of maintaining stable capital ratios.

Manan Gosalia followed up on expenses, asking if positive operating leverage is achievable at the higher end of the revenue guide, and also questioned whether a steepening yield curve is beginning to drive more borrowing on commercial revolvers.

Answer

CFO Jamie Gregory confirmed that positive operating leverage is more achievable at the high end of the revenue guide but emphasized that executing on strategic priorities like hiring and technology is the primary goal. CEO Kevin Blair agreed with the theory that a steeper curve should boost line utilization from its current low of 43%, which would add $1 billion in balances if it normalized, but noted they have not yet seen this happen in actuality.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley noted that Net Interest Income (NII) appears to be tracking ahead of guidance and asked what factors could drive NII above the high end of the range. He also requested color on what management is hearing from clients regarding strategies to mitigate supply chain shocks from tariffs.

Answer

CFO William Holland clarified that while Q1 was strong, the full-year NII is expected to be within the guided range, as margin compression is anticipated in subsequent quarters, offsetting earning asset growth. CEO John Ciulla reported that clients seem resilient and prepared for potential tariff impacts, with strategies in place for sourcing and pricing. He added that Webster does not have disproportionate exposure to the most directly impacted industries.

Manan Gosalia asked about the trajectory of Net Interest Income (NII) for the remainder of the year and into 2026, excluding the BSBY benefit. He also inquired about any early signs of credit stress across the portfolio.

Answer

CFO James Herzog projected steady NII growth each quarter, driven by deposit growth, second-half loan growth, and maturing swaps and securities. Chief Credit Officer Melinda Chausse stated the credit environment remains strong and stable, with a slight uptick in criticized CRE loans but overall manageable levels and stable C&I performance.

Manan Gosalia asked about the capacity to reduce high-cost brokered deposits throughout the year and inquired about the bank's capital management strategy, specifically if there is a target for the CET1 ratio inclusive of AOCI.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Jim Herzog stated the goal is to eliminate most of the $1.1 billion in brokered time deposits by year-end 2025, contingent on loan growth. Regarding capital, he clarified there is no single target for CET1 including AOCI but that the bank plans to maintain its CET1 ratio 'well above 11%' in 2025, using buyback flexibility to manage the impact of AOCI and loan growth.

Manan Gosalia inquired about the drivers behind the increase in average deposit rates, the trajectory of deposit costs following the recent Fed rate cut, and the outlook for deposit betas heading into 2025.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Jim Herzog explained that the rise in interest-bearing deposit rates was an intentional strategy to attract core customer deposits and reduce reliance on wholesale funding. He noted that repricing efforts post-Fed cut have been successful, with a cumulative beta just above 60%. For 2025, Herzog anticipates that deposit betas will likely accelerate in the middle to latter half of the year, following a 'u-shaped curve' dependent on the pace of rate cuts and the overall economic landing.

Asked about client sentiment and actions since early April and questioned if the full-year loan growth guidance, which implies a second-half slowdown, is due to conservatism or specific expected headwinds.

Answer

Client sentiment is mixed, with some bullish and others deferring decisions due to tariff uncertainty; it's not uniformly negative. The second-half guidance is intentionally cautious due to economic uncertainty, and there is potential to beat it if the environment stabilizes.

Asked for an outlook on the U.S. consumer and risks in the bank's consumer book, given the prospect of higher inflation without layoffs. Also inquired about the target for the CET1 ratio including AOCI by year-end.

Answer

The consumer outlook is segmented: lower-income individuals are stretched, high-net-worth individuals are pulling back on lifestyle spending, but the broad middle (often homeowners) remains resilient. The bank's consumer lending book is concentrated in prime and super-prime borrowers. The target for the CET1 ratio including AOCI is to end the year around 9%, with continued improvement expected as the securities portfolio's unrealized losses accrete back into equity.

Manan Gosalia inquired about Fifth Third's capital management strategy, specifically its target for the CET1 ratio including AOCI and how this influences decisions on share buybacks and loan growth.

Answer

CFO Bryan Preston explained the bank aims to keep CET1 including AOCI above 8%, expecting it to accrete higher over time. He affirmed that capital priorities remain organic growth, dividends, and then buybacks, with repurchase levels managed to maintain the ~10.5% reported CET1 target and accommodate loan growth.

Manan Gosalia asked about the behavior of index deposits as rates fall and whether they might migrate to other exception-priced products. He also sought more detail on credit normalization, asking what provides confidence that broad credit weakening is not occurring.

Answer

CFO Bryan Preston stated that while some deposit rate negotiation always occurs, the bank has a strong track record of managing this and is not concerned about reverse migration from index deposits being a significant headwind. Chief Credit Officer Greg Schroeck addressed credit, highlighting that delinquencies remain at all-time lows and criticized assets declined. He noted the NPA increase was driven by a few isolated names and some expected softness in recent consumer vintages, emphasizing the portfolio's overall stability and diversification.

Manan Gosalia asked if there was room to deploy excess cash into longer-duration assets given the high LCR. He also followed up on loan spread competition, asking if it has continued and if there is more room to lean into growth.

Answer

CFO Bryan Preston explained that deploying cash into duration is unattractive due to the inverted yield curve, as they earn more on the front end. He added that while the bank won't sacrifice returns, improving loan pipelines and confidence in future rate cuts are creating opportunities to pursue growth.

Asked about the extent of CRE loan sales versus paydowns, the potential for selling performing loans to shrink the balance sheet, and the key drivers behind the significant net interest margin (NIM) expansion forecasted for 2026.

Answer

The bank clarified that there were no significant loan sales in the quarter, with reductions coming from paydowns. They intend to sell non-accrual loans by year-end but are focused on natural paydowns for the performing book. The forecasted 2026 NIM lift is primarily driven by the repricing of the existing loan portfolio (about 75% of the effect) and the redeployment of capital into new C&I loans.

Asked about the implied Q4 net interest income run rate, the yield pickup on repricing loans, and the potential size of expense benefits from upcoming system conversions.

Answer

The bank confirmed a significant positive repricing opportunity on maturing loans (from 3-5% to ~8%) but deferred detailed 2024 NII and expense guidance to the next call, noting both positive and negative drivers for expenses.

Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley inquired about the certificate of deposit (CD) portfolio, asking about its duration, client rollover behavior, and the portion expected to reprice in the near term. He also asked about the effectiveness of promotional CDs as a customer acquisition tool versus using FHLB funding, and whether new CD clients also open checking accounts.

Answer

CEO and President Michael Roffler explained that clients are currently favoring slightly longer 8- and 10-month CDs over shorter terms. He confirmed that a majority of the CD book is expected to reprice within the next 3 to 6 months, as the bank has maintained a duration in the 4- to 7-month range. Roffler emphasized that the bank always prioritizes client acquisition over FHLB funding, noting that CD pricing is often more attractive anyway. He confirmed that these offerings are a successful tool for acquiring new households and that the bank is able to open checking accounts for a "very good percentage" of these new clients.

Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley sought more detail on the funding side, asking for the spot deposit rate as of September 30. He also inquired about the bank's preferred funding avenues—CDs, FHLB, or wholesale funding—and the amount of cash generated quarterly from securities portfolio runoff.

Answer

Acting CFO Olga Tsokova reported the spot rate on deposits was 76 basis points as of September 30. She noted that while CDs have increased to 9% of deposits, this is still low compared to historical mid-teen levels. CEO and President Mike Roffler emphasized that acquiring client deposits through CDs is the preferred strategy over wholesale funding like FHLB. He added that the securities portfolio generates a relatively light runoff of $300 million to $500 million per quarter.

Manan Gosalia inquired about the underlying drivers of the strong growth in multifamily loan originations. He also asked about the expected timing of growth contributions from new market expansions in Florida and Seattle.

Answer

Chief Banking Officer Mike Selfridge explained that the strength in multifamily lending is driven by existing, experienced clients identifying opportunities in what remains a solid asset class with strong rental demand. CEO Mike Roffler indicated that significant growth contributions from new markets like Seattle are more likely a 2023 story, although the initial reception has been very positive.