Manav Gupta

Manav Gupta with UBS inquired about Bloom's progress with combined heat and power (CHP) solutions, particularly absorption chillers for data centers, and their potential to become a primary cooling source over vapor compression chillers, and how this benefits Bloom's competitive position.

Answer

K.R. Sridhar, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Bloom Energy, explained that on-site power generation allows Bloom to use high-quality waste heat to drive absorption chilling, potentially reducing data center electricity usage by 20% to 0. He noted that absorption chillers are more efficient, less expensive, environmentally beneficial (no hydrofluorocarbons), and avoid the supply chain constraints of vapor compression chillers. Sridhar positioned this as another 'app' on Bloom's platform, enhancing its competitiveness.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked about the implications of the Energy Secretary's proposal to FERC to expedite data center grid interconnections, and how this could benefit Bloom Energy. He also inquired about the potential impact of chipmakers transitioning to 800V DC power architecture, specifically whether this would enhance the efficiency of Bloom's fuel cells due to direct DC-DC power delivery.

Answer

K.R. Sridhar, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Bloom Energy, welcomed the FERC proposal, noting that data centers will still need to "Bring Your Own Power" (BYOP) to avoid curtailment, which Bloom can provide rapidly, benefiting utilities with ancillary grid support and environmental advantages. On the 800V DC shift, K.R. Sridhar confirmed its necessity for next-gen AI chips, explaining that Bloom's original architecture, designed years ago, is uniquely capable of direct 800V DC power delivery, making it inherently more efficient and purpose-built for the digital age compared to legacy AC-centric systems.

Manav Gupta asked how the Energy Secretary's draft proposal to FERC, which aims to limit regulatory review for data center grid connections to 60 days, could benefit Bloom Energy. He also inquired about the impact of chipmakers moving to 800-volt DC architecture by 2027, and if this would make Bloom's fuel cells more efficient due to reduced transmission losses.

Answer

K.R. Sridhar, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Bloom Energy, applauded the FERC proposal but stressed the continued need for 'Bring Your Own Power' (BYOP) due to potential grid curtailments. He explained that Bloom's servers offer rapid interconnection, ancillary grid support, hot standby capabilities, and environmental benefits. Regarding the 800-volt DC shift, Sridhar confirmed it's a 'must-have' for next-generation AI chips, and Bloom's architecture was purpose-built to directly feed at 800 volts, offering significant efficiency advantages over legacy systems.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG questioned the drivers behind the strong operating margin performance and future targets, and also asked about the potential for expanded collaboration with American Electric Power (AEP).

Answer

KR Sridhar, Founder, Chairman & CEO, credited the margin improvement to fiscal discipline, cost reductions, and level-loading the factory, expressing confidence in continued improvement. Regarding AEP, he confirmed they are actively working on a robust pipeline to fulfill the existing 1-gigawatt agreement and explore future opportunities.

Manav Gupta inquired about Bloom Energy's primary growth driver for 2025-2026, asking whether direct sales to customers or partnerships with utilities like AEP would be more significant for product deployment.

Answer

K.R. Sridhar (Founder, Chairman, and CEO) explained that partnering with utilities is the preferred model as it's often the customer's preference. He confirmed the AEP partnership is strong and that Bloom is actively developing relationships with several other utilities. However, the company remains flexible and will sell directly to customers when circumstances require.

Manav Gupta asked about the sentiment among data center customers following recent market news about AI efficiency, and whether conversations with midstream gas companies about behind-the-meter solutions are increasing.

Answer

CEO KR Sridhar stated that customer urgency for power is only increasing, dismissing recent news as 'noise on the margins' compared to the massive, tangible power demand driven by AI chip shipments from companies like NVIDIA. He also confirmed that Bloom is actively engaged in conversations with oil, gas, and midstream companies to meet this unprecedented demand.

Manav Gupta asked if recent market sentiment shifts had affected actual data center customer demand and inquired about the status of conversations with midstream companies for behind-the-meter power solutions.

Answer

CEO KR Sridhar stated that customer demand for power is accelerating, dismissing market noise as irrelevant to the fundamental supply-demand imbalance driven by AI. He also confirmed that Bloom is engaged in active conversations at all levels with oil, gas, and midstream companies to help meet the unprecedented power demand.

Manav Gupta of UBS highlighted the diversity of recent orders across utilities, international power, and data centers, asking if this multi-market approach will be a continuing trend.

Answer

CEO K.R. Sridhar affirmed the importance of order book diversity across sectors and geographies for long-term stability. He elaborated on the front-of-the-meter utility model, the behind-the-meter customer model, and plans for international expansion beyond Korea into markets like Europe and Taiwan, all contributing to a less cyclical business.

Manav Gupta asked about the future growth path for Phillips 66's midstream portfolio, considering its significant earnings growth over the past two years, and the company's refining macro outlook for 2026.

Answer

Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO, confirmed the midstream earnings growth, attributing it to both organic and inorganic opportunities that expanded the organic playing field. Don Baldridge, EVP of Midstream and Chemicals, projected a steady $1 billion/quarter run rate for midstream earnings in the first half of 2026, with step changes from organic growth projects (e.g., a gas plant every 12-18 months, additional fractionators) driving towards a $4.5 billion run rate by end of 2027. He emphasized the momentum and deal flow beyond 2027, including potential Corpus Christi frac expansion and Western Gateway. Rich Harbison, EVP of Refining, expressed a bullish refining macro outlook for 2026, citing continued demand growth exceeding global net refinery additions, low unplanned turnarounds in 2025, and widening heavy crude differentials.

Manav Gupta congratulated Phillips 66 on positive developments and asked about the future growth path for the midstream portfolio, including organic growth rates and potential bolt-on deals, given the segment's significant earnings increase. He also sought Phillips 66's refining macro outlook for 2026, questioning if another strong year is anticipated despite bearish sentiment.

Answer

Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO, confirmed the midstream earnings growth, attributing it to both organic and inorganic opportunities that expanded the organic playing field. Don Baldridge, EVP of Midstream and Chemicals, projected a $1 billion/quarter run rate for the next couple of years, with organic growth projects driving the segment to a $4.5 billion run rate by year-end 2027, and sustainable mid-single-digit growth beyond. Rich Harbison, EVP of Refining, expressed a very bullish outlook for refining in 2026, citing growing demand, limited global refinery additions, and low unplanned turnarounds in 2025, coupled with widening heavy crude differentials.

Manav Gupta inquired about the drivers behind the significant jump in Chemicals segment earnings, particularly regarding feedstock blend and the timeline for returning to mid-cycle margins, and the performance and future expansion plans for the EPIC-acquired Coastal Bend pipeline assets.

Answer

Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO, explained that the Chemicals earnings increase was due to higher high-density polyethylene margins from lower feedstock costs (heavier ethane weighting), absence of Q2 downtime, and competitors' Q3 outages. Don Baldridge, EVP of Midstream and Chemicals, confirmed that the EPIC-acquired Coastal Bend assets are meeting and exceeding acquisition plans, with the first expansion running full and a second phase planned for late 2026, driven by available volumes and G&P expansions.

Manav Gupta inquired about the significant jump in the chemical segment's earnings despite a flat industry indicator, asking if a higher ethane blend contributed and when mid-cycle chemical margins might return. He also followed up on the performance of the EPIC (now Coastal Bend) acquired assets, their current quarterly EBITDA contribution, and the projected impact of full expansion.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Lashier explained that the chemical earnings increase was driven by higher high-density polyethylene margins due to lower feedstock costs (leveraging a heavier ethane blend than the IHS marker), absence of planned/unplanned downtime from Q2, and market tightness from competitors' outages. He noted the segment is performing well in a protracted down cycle, with long-term prospects strengthened by new world-scale asset startups. Midstream and Chemicals executive Don Baldridge stated that the EPIC NGL assets (Coastal Bend) are meeting and exceeding acquisition plan expectations due to synergy capture, with the first expansion running full and another planned for 2026, driven by available volumes and GMP expansions.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG inquired about the specific operational drivers behind the exceptional Q2 refining results, including 99% market capture and 98% utilization. He also asked for details on the strong Marketing & Specialties (M&S) performance and its normalized EBITDA run-rate following asset sales.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Mark Lashier and SVP of Refining Richard Harbison attributed the refining success to disciplined execution, reliability programs, high-return projects like the Sweeny sour crude flex project, and managing assets as a fleet to lower costs. EVP & CFO Kevin Mitchell explained the M&S results included a ~$100 million timing benefit and seasonal strength, guiding for a normalized Q3 earnings range of $450-$500 million, which will be reduced by about $50 million per quarter after the European disposition closes.

Manav Gupta asked how U.S. LPG exports would be impacted by potential tariffs from China and inquired about the medium-term outlook for the polyethylene chain margin.

Answer

Brian Mandell, EVP of Marketing and Commercial, explained that tariffs would likely reroute global trade flows, with the U.S. backfilling supply to other regions as China sources from places like the Middle East. He noted that Phillips 66's Freeport LPG exports are mostly secured under term contracts with no cancellations. Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO, commented on polyethylene, stating that while tariffs create pressure and uncertainty, the company's CPChem joint venture has minimized its exposure to China and has flexible sourcing capabilities.

Manav Gupta asked for management's opinion on when ethylene chain margins might return closer to mid-cycle levels. He also inquired about the significant quarter-over-quarter improvement in the Renewable Fuels business, seeking to understand the key drivers.

Answer

CEO Mark Lashier responded on Chemicals, stating that the long-term macro outlook is supportive for a slow but healthy margin recovery through 2026. Brian Mandell (Marketing and Commercial) explained the Renewable Fuels improvement was due to strong operational performance, lower costs, and processing higher carbon-intensity (CI) feedstock, but cautioned that future margin weakness is possible due to regulatory uncertainty.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about the factors behind the strong performance in the Central Corridor and the potential for asset sale proceeds to exceed the $3 billion target.

Answer

Rich Harbison of Refining attributed the Central Corridor's strength to favorable inventory hedges, strong regional cracks, and excellent operational performance. Chairman and CEO Mark Lashier confirmed that the $3 billion asset sale target should be considered a 'floor,' as the company continues its ongoing portfolio optimization.

Manav Gupta asked for Suncor's refining macro outlook for 2026, particularly for diesel and gasoline, given the strong 2025 performance despite bearish sentiment. He also inquired about the improvements at Syncrude since Suncor took over its operations compared to its previous joint venture status.

Answer

Rich Kruger (CEO) highlighted the downstream's role as a natural hedge. Dave Oldreive (EVP of Downstream) noted strong diesel cracks expected through Q1, playing to Suncor's strengths, and cited an Edmonton refinery example where a CAD 140,000 investment increased diesel yield by 8,000 b/d. Dave Oldreive (EVP of Downstream) explained that Syncrude's full integration into the Suncor family brings best practices, central support, and scale efficiencies.

Manav Gupta asked for Suncor's perspective on the refining macro, particularly for diesel and gasoline, and if 2026 is expected to be similar to the strong 2025 despite bearish sentiment. He also inquired about the improvements at Syncrude since Suncor took over operations compared to its previous joint venture entity.

Answer

CEO Rich Kruger highlighted the downstream's role as a natural hedge. EVP of Downstream Dave Oldreive discussed current crack spreads, expecting strong diesel through Q1, which benefits Suncor's low G-to-D ratio and flexibility. He cited an Edmonton refinery example where a CAD 140,000 investment increased diesel yield by 8,000 barrels per day, generating CAD 45 million annually. Regarding Syncrude, Rich Kruger explained it's now fully integrated into the Suncor family, benefiting from best practices, central support, scale, and efficiency, systematically elevating its performance.

Manav Gupta from UBS Group asked about the timeline for disclosing details on long-term growth projects and requested Suncor's outlook on the refining market macro environment.

Answer

President and CEO Rich Kruger indicated that after proving its ability to deliver on its current three-year plan, the company will provide a fulsome long-term outlook in 2026. EVP of Downstream Dave Oldreive described the near-term refining macro as robust, with strong diesel cracks benefiting Suncor's diesel-heavy production slate, and noted that retail sales through its Petro-Canada brand were up 8% year-over-year.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about the drivers behind the strong 99% refining margin capture and asked about the risk planning for the major upcoming upstream turnaround at the Base Plant to ensure it stays on schedule and budget.

Answer

EVP, Downstream Dave Oldreive attributed the high margin capture to an improved channel mix, with higher domestic retail sales and lower-value exports. CEO Richard Kruger added a philosophical shift to running refineries at full capacity to lower unit costs. Regarding the turnaround, SVP, Operational Improvement Shelley Powell stated the team is well-prepared with extensive pre-work and risk mitigation, including practice lifts. Kruger praised the project and operations team collaboration as the best he's witnessed.

Manav Gupta of UBS highlighted Suncor's significant progress on its breakeven reduction plan, achieving $7 of a $10 target in the first year, and asked if the ultimate goal could be revised higher. He also requested management's outlook on the refining market for the next 6-9 months.

Answer

CEO Richard Kruger acknowledged the outperformance, attributing it to accelerating initiatives and achieving greater benefits than expected. While not providing a new number, he stated that the company's ambition has been elevated by 2024's performance. On the refining outlook, EVP, Downstream, Dave Oldreive, noted that current margins are more typical than the unusually high ones of recent years but sees potential upside. He emphasized Suncor's focus is on "winning in any environment" through its integrated model.

Manav Gupta from UBS highlighted Fort Hills' strong year-to-date cash cost performance, asking if costs could fall below $30/bbl in 2025. He also requested Suncor's near-to-medium term outlook on the WCS differential.

Answer

President & CEO Rich Kruger and EVP of Oil Sands Peter Zebedee attributed the strong cost performance to higher production volumes and disciplined execution of the mine improvement plan, confirming they are tracking at or better than guidance. CFO Kris Smith stated that while TMX provides structural support, the WCS differential will see volatility but should remain supported in the low to mid-teens, noting Suncor is largely insulated due to its integrated model.

Manav Gupta asked about the steep drop in Bunge's share buybacks from Q3 to Q4 2025 and the outlook for buybacks going forward. He also questioned the significant discrepancy between the Street's Q1 EPS estimate of $1.76 and Bunge's implied guidance of $0.80, asking why the Street's estimate is almost double.

Answer

CFO John Neppl explained that Bunge stepped into the market to complete the majority of the program and is committed to wrapping up the remaining portion soon. He indicated that share buybacks are expected to be a bigger part of capital allocation going forward, with more details to be shared at Investor Day. Regarding the EPS discrepancy, CFO John Neppl suggested it might stem from the Street's expectation of RVO impact gaining traction in Q1, which has been delayed. He noted that Q1 is largely locked, and while improvements could be captured, the quarter will be mostly over by the time RVO is finalized. CEO Greg Heckman added that the guidance range feels more bent to the positive, given potential market and policy developments.

Manav Gupta questioned the steep drop in Bunge's share buyback activity from $545 million in Q3 to $6 million in Q4, asking for the reason behind this decline and the outlook for future buybacks. He also asked about the significant discrepancy between the Street's Q1 EPS estimate of $1.76 and Bunge's implied guidance of $0.80.

Answer

CFO John Neppl explained that Bunge stepped into the market to complete the majority of the buyback program and is committed to wrapping up the remaining portion soon. He indicated that share buybacks are expected to be a larger part of future capital allocation, with more details to be shared at Investor Day. Regarding the Q1 EPS discrepancy, John Neppl attributed it to a potential misunderstanding of the RVO timing and its impact on Q1, as Bunge is largely locked for the quarter. CEO Greg Heckman added that the guidance is back-half loaded, with many factors potentially tipping towards the positive.

Manav Gupta with UBS asked about positive surprises and areas requiring more effort post-Viterra acquisition, and inquired about the future uses of cash, particularly regarding the restart of share buybacks.

Answer

Gregory Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer, noted that integrating Viterra's private, IFRS-based financials into a public, GAAP-compliant system was a heavy lift but progressing well. He highlighted the quick and positive cultural integration of commercial teams as a pleasant surprise. John Knepel, Chief Financial Officer, stated that share buybacks would be a meaningful part of capital allocation going forward, especially as mega projects wrap up by 2026, leading to a considerable decline in CapEx.

Manav Gupta asked about the positive surprises and areas requiring more work following the Viterra acquisition. He also inquired about the future uses of cash, specifically after the restart of share buybacks, given the combined company's strong cash generation.

Answer

CEO Gregory Heckman noted confirmation of pre-acquisition expectations, with the heaviest lift being the integration of Viterra's private, IFRS-based operations into a public GAAP company. Positive surprises included the quick integration of commercial teams and the adoption of Bunge's risk management culture. CFO John Knepel clarified that over $2 billion in buybacks have occurred since the Viterra announcement, with $255 million remaining on the Viterra-specific program. He expects a considerable decline in CapEx post-2026 as mega projects conclude, making share buybacks a meaningful part of future capital allocation.

Manav Gupta from UBS Group inquired about the plan for shareholder returns post-Viterra deal, specifically regarding the share buyback program, and asked if domestic soybean oil could command a premium under the new RVO.

Answer

CFO John Neppl confirmed that $800 million remains on the current buyback authorization and that the company expects to execute on it 'fairly soon,' positioning buybacks as a key part of future capital allocation. Regarding a potential SBO premium, Neppl said it was possible, as the RVO rules are designed to incentivize domestic production, and Bunge is well-positioned to adapt to market dynamics.

Manav Gupta inquired about the strategic benefits of the joint venture with Repsol and how Bunge would benefit from a potential increase in the U.S. Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO).

Answer

CEO Greg Heckman highlighted that the Repsol JV positions Bunge as a key partner for supplying lower-carbon feedstocks in Europe, where CFO John Neppl noted there is more policy certainty. Regarding the RVO, Heckman said a higher mandate would strengthen the oil leg of the crush globally, and Neppl added that Bunge is well-positioned to capture upside in the second half of the year as it is not heavily covered.

Manav Gupta inquired about the key factors influencing the 2025 guidance, the degree of conservatism embedded in it, and how the company is accounting for policy uncertainty surrounding the 45Z tax credit.

Answer

CEO Gregory Heckman explained that the guidance reflects a constructive global oil supply and demand environment and expected improvements in South America, offset by lower anticipated margins in North America and Europe. He confirmed the guidance excludes impacts from the Viterra and CJ Selecta acquisitions. CFO John Neppl added that the forecast assumes lower U.S. crush margins and challenged refining premiums due to the 45Z uncertainty.

Manav Gupta asked for an update on the progress and startup timelines for Bunge's growth CapEx projects. He also inquired if the Viterra deal's delay would allow for an earlier realization of synergies.

Answer

CFO John Neppl explained that the major growth projects are expected to be commissioned in late 2025 to early 2026, with material earnings contributions beginning in the first half of 2026. Regarding synergies, Neppl noted that while the delay has allowed for better organizational and operational planning, commercial synergies cannot be accelerated as the teams cannot collaborate on commercial matters until after the deal closes.

Manav Gupta asked about further collaboration opportunities with ExxonMobil, specifically inquiring if the partnership could expand beyond current ventures, potentially into areas like carbon capture and sequestration given Enterprise's infrastructure.

Answer

Co-CEO Jim Teague stated that Enterprise has numerous existing touchpoints with ExxonMobil and will continue to pursue more deals, expressing a positive view of the relationship. However, he indicated that carbon capture and sequestration is not expected to be part of their joint portfolio.

Manav Gupta inquired about further collaboration opportunities with ExxonMobil beyond the Bahia UJI, specifically exploring potential partnerships in power generation and carbon capture and sequestration, leveraging Enterprise Products Partners' infrastructure.

Answer

Co-CEO Jim Teague stated that Enterprise Products Partners interacts with ExxonMobil in numerous areas and will continue to pursue deals, but carbon capture is not expected to be part of their portfolio.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group asked about the company's leverage to the Haynesville Shale via its Acadian gas system, and also inquired about the criteria for potential bolt-on acquisitions as capital expenditures decline.

Answer

SVP Natalie Reagan highlighted that the timing for recontracting on the Acadian gas pipeline was excellent, allowing them to achieve rates two to three times higher than historical levels. Co-CEO Randall Fowler noted that the future capital spending guidance already considers potential organic growth projects on their system.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group inquired about Enterprise's leverage to the Haynesville Shale, particularly the Acadian gas system, in light of potential new LNG projects. He also asked about the criteria for potential bolt-on acquisition opportunities.

Answer

SVP of Natural Gas Assets Natalie Reagan explained that the timing for recontracting the Acadian gas system was excellent, with new rates expected to be two to three times historical levels. Co-CEO Randall Fowler noted that the future capital guidance of $2-2.5 billion already considers potential organic growth projects, such as additional processing plants.

Manav Gupta asked for a progress update on the Mentone West gas processing plant projects and inquired about the company's strategy for replenishing its project backlog as current projects are completed.

Answer

Executive Graham Bacon reported that construction on the Mentone projects is progressing well and they may come online ahead of schedule. Co-CEO W. Fowler addressed the backlog, reiterating the 2026 CapEx forecast of $2.0-$2.5 billion, which includes a small ~$600-700 million allowance for new projects, such as two more processing plants, with the pace depending on producer activity.

Manav Gupta requested an update on the Morgan's Point ethylene flex expansion and asked about the company's view on the Haynesville Shale as a growth basin.

Answer

Executive Chris Dan confirmed the Morgan's Point expansion is complete and in service, currently handling mostly ethane due to market conditions. Regarding the Haynesville, another executive noted that while some new acreage is showing growth, the basin overall has been flat, with future growth potential being dependent on natural gas prices. The company plans to update its Haynesville forecast in Q2.

Manav Gupta inquired about the growth project outlook for 2026 and beyond, and asked how to think about shareholder returns, particularly buybacks, during the current elevated capital expenditure cycle.

Answer

Co-CEO W. Fowler explained that 2024-2025 represent a period of elevated CapEx, which is expected to moderate in 2026 to the $2.0-$2.5 billion range, leaving room for new projects. Consequently, he anticipates buybacks will remain in the $200-$300 million annual range through 2025, with a reassessment for 2026.

Manav Gupta asked about new opportunities for LPG exports, specifically in light of the recent India-U.S. trade deal, and addressed general bearish sentiment regarding LPG export overcapacity. He also inquired if MPLX would consider bolt-on M&A in 2026, and if successful M&A could extend the projected 12% dividend distribution growth beyond two years.

Answer

President and CEO Maryann Mannen acknowledged the strong global LPG demand, supported by the India-U.S. deal, and expressed confidence in MPLX's advantaged position for its 2028-2029 LPG export terminal. She confirmed MPLX's openness to M&A opportunities that meet strict capital discipline, mid-teens returns, and strategic alignment, noting that a strong balance sheet allows for such considerations, potentially extending distribution growth.

Manav Gupta asked about new opportunities for LPG exports arising from the India-US trade deal, considering general bearish sentiment and fears of overcapacity. He also inquired if MPLX would be open to bolt-on M&A in 2026 and if successful M&A could extend the 12.5% dividend distribution growth beyond the projected two years.

Answer

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO) viewed the India-US deal as supportive of MPLX's strong demand outlook for NGL and natural gas, reinforcing confidence in their LPG export assets. She confirmed MPLX remains open to M&A opportunities that meet strict capital discipline, mid-teens returns, and strategic alignment, particularly through JVs. She clarified that while the 12.5% distribution growth is projected for two years based on current plans, M&A could potentially extend it.

Manav Gupta inquired about the Permian sour gas opportunity, specifically whether additional AGI wells are required to achieve full asset capacity. He also asked about the pipeline of data center opportunities and if MPLX would consider generating and selling electricity, or solely supplying natural gas.

Answer

Maryann Mannen (President and CEO, MPLX) confirmed that the $500 million incremental capital for the sour gas investment covers the Titan facility expansion and the next AGI well, with no further AGI wells needed for the outlined project economics. Regarding data centers, Mannen stated MPLX is evaluating opportunities, with the Mara LOI being the first step. Greg Floerke (EVP and COO, MPLX) added that MPLX has co-location and gas supply capabilities, and while they possess power generation expertise, moving into the power generation business is a separate business case they are keeping open.

Manav Gupta inquired about the Permian sour gas opportunity, specifically whether additional AGI wells are required to operate the asset at full capacity, and also asked about the pipeline of data center opportunities and MPLX's potential openness to generating and selling electricity.

Answer

Maryann Mannen, President and CEO, MPLX, confirmed that the $500 million incremental capital for the sour gas opportunity includes the next AGI well, and no further AGI wells are needed to meet the outlined project economics. Greg Floerke, EVP and COO, MPLX, added that MPLX's extensive gas aggregation capabilities and experience with prime movers for generation provide optionality for power generation, but it remains a separate business case they are evaluating.

Manav Gupta asked for MPLX's perspective on the economics of its new fractionation plants and LPG exports, given recent bearish market sentiment. He also requested an overview of the company's Permian growth strategy for the next two to three years.

Answer

President and CEO Maryann Mannen expressed high confidence in the new frac projects, citing the ability to fill capacity with their own volumes and expiring third-party contracts. Regarding the Permian, she highlighted the Northwind acquisition's complementary fit, the completion of the BANGL acquisition, and the focus on developing a comprehensive system in the basin's most attractive areas.

Manav Gupta asked for MPLX's perspective on the economics of its new fractionation plants and LPG exports, given recent bearish market sentiment. He also requested an overview of the company's Permian growth strategy for the next two to three years.

Answer

President & CEO Maryann Mannen expressed high confidence in the ability to fill the new fractionation facilities and achieve strong economics, citing factors like expiring third-party contracts that will bring volumes onto their system. Regarding the Permian, she described a multi-faceted strategy focused on integrating complementary assets like Northwind, expanding key infrastructure such as the BANGL pipeline, and capitalizing on the high-quality rock in the Delaware Basin.

Manav Gupta of UBS requested more details on the acquisition of Whitetail Midstream's gathering business, its benefits, and potential synergies with the refining business. He also asked about the Traverse pipeline JV, its portfolio benefits, and the advantages of partnering on such projects.

Answer

President and CEO Maryann Mannen described the Whitetail acquisition as a strategic move that complements MPLX's existing Four Corners presence and enhances its relationship with MPC, particularly via connectivity to the El Paso refinery. Regarding the Traverse pipeline, SVP David Heppner explained that it is a key part of the Permian-to-Gulf Coast strategy, providing shippers with crucial optionality and flexibility by connecting the Agua Dulce and Katy market hubs, complementing existing long-haul and last-mile pipelines.

Manav Gupta questioned if the newly announced projects could extend MPLX's streak of double-digit distribution growth for the next several years. He also asked about the company's appetite for small bolt-on acquisitions and potential asset dropdowns from its parent, MPC.

Answer

President and CEO Maryann Mannen expressed optimism that the projects support durable mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, which should enable distribution increases similar to the recent 12.5% for years to come. She confirmed MPLX has the balance sheet for strategic bolt-on M&A and clarified that any asset dropdowns would be for portfolio rationalization, not to artificially support growth targets.

Manav Gupta asked how MPLX could benefit from rising electricity demand driven by data centers and requested an update on the Texas City fractionation and storage project.

Answer

President and CEO Maryann Mannen and executive Gregory Floerke explained that MPLX is well-positioned to support producer customers as demand grows, given its large footprint in the Northeast. Executive David Heppner addressed the Texas City project, stating it is one of several options being evaluated to expand the NGL value chain, with a final decision pending further evaluation based on capital discipline and strategic fit.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about the expected impact of the RVO policy clarity on renewable diesel margins, RINs, and the operating and processing rates of biodiesel and renewable diesel facilities, seeking insight into the timing and magnitude of these benefits.

Answer

Chair and CEO Juan Luciano explained that while the RVO policy is expected to be positive for the industry and ADM, the timing of its implementation and market digestion creates uncertainty for the P&L. He noted that ADM's business is often sold 60-70% into the following quarter, meaning benefits from a Q1 RVO decision might materialize from July onwards. Luciano highlighted the broader positive trends for vegetable oils in biofuels globally and ADM's long-term growth platforms.

Manav Gupta of UBS asked about the expected impact of RVO clarity on renewable diesel margins, RINs, and the operating rates of biodiesel and renewable diesel facilities.

Answer

Chair and CEO Juan Luciano explained the difficulty in providing precise guidance due to RVO timing and market digestion, but affirmed a positive long-term outlook for the industry and ADM, especially with increased vegetable oil use in biofuels globally. He also highlighted ADM's long-term growth platforms.

Manav Gupta inquired about the September announcement of ADM's joint venture with Alltech, seeking to understand its formation, benefits, and how it strategically helps ADM. He then followed up on the potential for a very strong 2026 and 2027, assuming favorable policy outcomes such as higher RVOs, no production tax credits for imported renewable diesel, 50% RINs for imported feedstocks, and the removal of the indirect land use penalty clause.

Answer

Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of ADM, explained that the Alltech JV is part of ADM's animal nutrition strategy to pivot towards higher-margin specialty ingredients, combining ADM's compound feed business with Alltech's expertise, with production expected in 2026. He anticipates significant synergies and operational improvements, allowing ADM's remaining animal nutrition business to focus on specialties. Monish Patolawala, EVP and CFO, credited the team for general progress in animal nutrition. Regarding policy, Mr. Luciano affirmed that the highlighted policy pieces are favorable to domestic feedstock, expecting RINs to rise first, then pull demand for soybean oil, increasing crush margins. He noted ADM is prepared to run assets harder and is focused on its self-help agenda, expressing optimism for 2026, contingent on government clarity.

Manav Gupta asked for details on the September announcement of forming a joint venture with Alltech, specifically how it came together and the anticipated benefits for ADM. He also inquired about the potential for a very strong 2026 and 2027 for ADM, given various pending biofuel policy changes.

Answer

Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO, ADM, explained the Alltech JV aligns with ADM's Animal Nutrition strategy to pivot towards higher-margin specialties, combining compound feed businesses to create operational improvements. The remaining ADM Animal Nutrition will focus on specialty ingredients. Monish Patolawala, EVP and CFO, ADM, credited the Animal Nutrition team for general operational progress. Juan Luciano further elaborated that favorable policies (higher RVO, no production tax credit for imported renewable diesel, 50% RINs for imported feedstocks, removal of indirect land use penalty) would strengthen domestic feedstock demand, leading to higher RINs, increased soybean oil demand, and improved crush margins, setting up a strong 2026.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group sought clarification on the remediation of the company's material weakness, asking if the SEC is now satisfied with their financial reporting and what measures are in place to prevent a recurrence.

Answer

CFO Monish Patolawala explained that the remediation of the material weakness was the result of a robust, 18-month internal plan that included enhanced controls, training, and talent upgrades. He emphasized that management, in consultation with the audit committee and external auditors, has tested these controls and believes they are effective. He framed this as an ongoing commitment to enhancing transparency and compliance processes.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group sought clarification on the remediation of the company's material weakness, asking about the SEC's satisfaction with the changes and what measures are in place to prevent a recurrence.

Answer

CFO Monish Patolawala stated that the material weakness was successfully remediated following a robust 18-month plan that included enhanced internal controls, training, and talent upgrades. He confirmed that management tested these controls over multiple periods and consulted with the audit committee and external auditors. He emphasized a continued commitment to enhancing transparency and maintaining an effective operating environment to prevent future issues.

Manav Gupta sought confirmation on the Decatur East plant restart, asking when to assume a contribution to results and for a reminder of the plant's full benefits once operational.

Answer

CEO Juan Luciano confirmed the plant is currently ramping up but advised that the financial impact should be modeled for the second half of the year due to the facility's complexity. He reiterated that the plant's downtime had previously been an approximate $25 million per quarter headwind for the Nutrition segment, indicating the expected positive swing.

Manav Gupta asked for an update on the progress made on two of CFO Monish Patolawala's key priorities: enhancing operational rigor and remediating the material weakness in financial reporting.

Answer

CFO Monish Patolawala reported progress on both fronts. For the material weakness, he noted enhanced controls, documentation, and training for intersegment sales are in place and being sustained, supported by the hiring of a new Chief Accounting Officer. For operational rigor, he pointed to a new $500M-$750M cost-out plan focused on manufacturing efficiency, third-party spend, and SG&A, alongside a portfolio simplification agenda.

Manav Gupta asked new CFO Monish Patolawala to outline his key priorities for the next 12-24 months. He also asked how ADM could be helped if China were to export less used cooking oil (UCO).

Answer

EVP and CFO Monish Patolawala detailed his priorities as: 1) ensuring integrity in financial reporting and remediating the material weakness; 2) driving cash, cost, and capital discipline; 3) accelerating digital transformation; and 4) portfolio optimization. On the UCO question, Chair and CEO Juan Luciano stated that ADM's goal is a level playing field with transparent rules regarding the origin of feedstocks, which would ensure fair competition for its products like soybean oil.

Manav Gupta inquired about two potential tailwinds for Chevron's refining margins: competitors closing capacity in California and the possibility of utilizing more Venezuelan heavy sour crude in its refining system.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth confirmed Chevron is bringing about 50,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude into its Pascagoula refinery and has capacity for another 100,000 barrels per day across its system, expecting to run more if competitive. He highlighted Chevron's strong, advantaged downstream position in California due to scale, complexity, and flexible crude sourcing, noting that refinery closures and policy decisions in the state contribute to higher fuel prices.

Manav Gupta asked about two tailwinds for Chevron's refining portfolio: competitors closing capacity in California and the possibility of processing more Venezuelan heavy sour barrels in its refining systems.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth confirmed Chevron is bringing about 50,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude into its Pascagoula refinery and has capacity for another 100,000 barrels per day at Pascagoula and El Segundo. He highlighted Chevron's strong, competitive downstream position in California due to scale, complexity, flexible crude sourcing, and logistics, noting that refinery closures and past policy decisions contribute to higher fuel prices in the isolated California market.

Manav Gupta asked about Imperial Oil's shareholder return strategy, specifically the recent dividend hike and the potential for a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) later in the year, and also inquired about the resilience of refining earnings and the overall refining macro environment.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO John Whelan stated the dividend increase reflects management's confidence in the company's strategies, financial strength, and low breakeven, emphasizing a consistent approach to reliable and growing dividends. Senior Vice President of Finance and Administration Dan Lyons clarified that the dividend increase is based on a long-term outlook and does not compete with the NCIB, which depends on commodity prices. Vice President of Downstream Scott Maloney added that strong refining margins, particularly for distillates in November, and the flexibility to maximize distillate production contributed to strong downstream earnings, supported by Imperial's coast-to-coast network and logistics.

Manav Gupta inquired about Imperial Oil's shareholder return strategy, specifically the 21% dividend hike, and whether it leaves enough cash for a potential Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) later in the year. He also asked about the resilience of refining earnings and the overall refining macro.

Answer

John Whelan, Chairman, President and CEO of Imperial Oil, stated the dividend increase reflects confidence in the company's strategies, financial strength, and low breakeven. Dan Lyons, Senior Vice President of Finance and Administration, added that the dividend is based on a long-term outlook and is complementary to the NCIB, which depends on commodity prices. Scott Maloney, Vice President of Downstream, highlighted strong refining margins in November and the flexibility to maximize distillate production, contributing to robust downstream earnings.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about the future trajectory of Cold Lake's cash costs following a significant year-over-year reduction, and also asked for an assessment of demand resilience within Imperial's refining system amid a choppy macroeconomic environment.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Bradley Corson explained that the $3/barrel year-over-year reduction in Cold Lake's cash costs is part of a strategic journey towards $13/barrel, driven by lower-cost barrels from Grand Rapids and the upcoming Leming project. Regarding demand, Corson stated that the company has not seen any material degradation, citing the resilience of its diverse customer base and the support from product inventories being at the lower end of the 5-year band.

Manav Gupta asked for an outlook on Cold Lake's cash costs for the remainder of the year and into 2026, given strong performance, and also questioned if Imperial's refining system was showing any signs of recessionary demand.

Answer

CEO Bradley Corson confirmed that Imperial is on a journey to lower Cold Lake's cash costs to $13 per barrel, driven by lower-cost barrels from the high-performing Grand Rapids project and the upcoming Leming project. On the demand side, Corson stated that the company has not seen any material degradation in demand beyond normal seasonal variations, noting that low industry-wide product inventories continue to support market strength.

Manav Gupta of UBS congratulated management on its 20% dividend increase and asked about the drivers behind Imperial's resilient refining earnings, which contrasted sharply with declining results from U.S. refiners. He also inquired about the outperformance of the Grand Rapids project at Cold Lake and plans for future growth.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Bradley Corson attributed the strong refining performance to advantaged Canadian crudes, robust market demand, premium infrastructure, and high refinery utilization. Regarding Grand Rapids, Mr. Corson confirmed production was exceeding its funding basis, reaching 22,000 barrels per day versus the 15,000 target, and noted that the positive early results are being analyzed for future development phases at Cold Lake.

Manav Gupta of UBS questioned whether the reiterated 2024 guidance implies reduced risk from wildfires. He also asked if completing the NCIB early opens the door for a potential Substantial Issuer Bid (SIB) in early 2025.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Bradley Corson confirmed no production impact from wildfires to date, supporting the guidance. Both Corson and Dan Lyons, SVP of Finance and Administration, explained that accelerating the NCIB provides flexibility for a future SIB, which could occur in early 2025 or even late 2024, depending on surplus cash levels.

Manav Gupta asked about the net financial impact of the TMX pipeline startup on Imperial's integrated portfolio and whether improved market conditions could lead to restarting the Aspen growth project.

Answer

Bradley Corson, Chairman, President and CEO, confirmed that the TMX pipeline is a significant net positive for Imperial. He explained that the company's heavy crude upstream production will benefit more from tightening differentials than its lighter-crude-focused downstream business will be impacted. Regarding the Aspen project, Corson noted that while market fundamentals have improved, the current focus is on advancing a new, proprietary solvent technology (EBRT) through a multi-year commercial pilot, which could significantly enhance the project's value and environmental performance before a final decision is made.

Manav Gupta asked about the future trajectory of cash costs at the Cold Lake asset, given strong performance from Grand Rapids and the upcoming Leming project. He also inquired whether the company has observed any signs of recessionary demand in its refining markets.

Answer

CEO Bradley Corson confirmed that Cold Lake is on a journey to reduce unit cash costs to $13 per barrel, driven by lower-cost barrels from Grand Rapids and the future start-up of Leming. On the demand side, Corson stated that the company has not seen any material degradation in demand, noting that product inventories are at the lower end of the 5-year band, which supports market strength.

Manav Gupta asked about the improved cash flow profile of Valero over the past four to five years, even with similar refining margins. He also inquired about the renewable diesel segment's performance, policy clarity (RVO, PTC), and expectations for better earnings in 2026 compared to 2025.

Answer

Homer Bhullar (VP Investor Relations and Finance, Valero Energy Corporation) attributed the enhanced cash flow to strong operations, disciplined capital investments, a robust balance sheet (lower debt, higher cash, reduced interest expense), and share repurchases. Eric Fisher (EVP and CCO, Valero Energy Corporation) explained that Valero's ability to capture PTC and SAF commercialization led to outperformance in 2025. He anticipates a stronger 2026 due to favorable policy, reduced capacity, and lower fat prices, despite potential tariff headwinds.

Manav Gupta asked about the significant improvement in renewable diesel, particularly after industry struggles, and whether Valero expects better earnings in 2026 versus 2025, primarily due to policy clarity.

Answer

Eric Fisher, EVP and CCO, confirmed that Valero has successfully captured the PTC (Production Tax Credit) and achieved full SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) commercialization in the second half of 2025, outcompeting many competitors. Brian Donovan, Head of Investor Relations, noted that with capacity offline and players awaiting policy guidance, fat prices have leveled off. He expects policy to be a tailwind in 2026, with tariffs remaining a headwind, indicating a stronger year for the segment, especially for those running waste oils, operating efficiently, and exporting to advantageous markets.

Manav Gupta inquired about the impact of recent global outages, including those in Russia and the Gulf, on global product markets and refining margins. He also asked for clarification on Valero's capital return strategy, specifically if the increased share buybacks and consistent payout ratio would continue given strong margins.

Answer

Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and COO, noted strong export demand, particularly for gasoline to Latin and South America, and diesel to South America, which is preventing US inventory restocking. He mentioned freight volatility impacting European arbitrage. Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance, confirmed that Valero's strategy is to direct all excess free cash flow towards share buybacks, a mode they intend to continue.

Manav Gupta inquired about Valero's capital return strategy, specifically whether the significant increase in share buybacks in Q3 2025 indicates a continued commitment to a high payout ratio if refining margins remain strong.

Answer

Homer Bhullar, Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance, confirmed that Valero's strategy remains to direct all excess free cash flow towards share repurchases, indicating that the current mode of capital returns will continue.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG asked for Valero's outlook on global refining capacity additions for 2025-2026 and questioned the drivers behind the strong Gulf Coast capture rate despite narrow crude differentials.

Answer

EVP & COO Gary Simmons stated that new capacity additions are limited and often geared toward petrochemicals, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance. VP of Refining Services Greg Bram attributed the strong Gulf Coast capture rate not to crude differentials, which are already in the benchmark, but to record operational throughput and strong commercial performance in exports and wholesale.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG asked for Valero's outlook on global net refining capacity additions for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. He also questioned the drivers behind the strong Gulf Coast capture rate, which exceeded 92% despite narrow heavy-light differentials, and whether widening differentials would provide a tailwind.

Answer

EVP & COO Gary Simmons noted that limited new capacity is coming online, suggesting a tighter market ahead, though the timing depends on economic resilience. VP of Refining Services Greg Bram explained that the strong Gulf Coast capture was driven by record operational throughput and strong commercial performance, not just crude differentials, as the benchmark indicator already accounts for heavy crude grades.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about the current supply-demand dynamics for refined products and the outlook for crude oil differentials and quality discounts.

Answer

Gary Simmons, EVP and COO, explained that global light product demand is outpacing net capacity additions, leading to inventory draws below 5-year averages. He noted constructive fundamentals for gasoline and diesel, with diesel inventories near historic lows. Simmons also anticipates more medium and heavy sour barrels will enter the market, which should support wider crude differentials.

Manav Gupta inquired about the current supply and demand dynamics for refined products and the outlook for crude oil differentials, considering factors like potential tariffs and OPEC+ production changes.

Answer

Gary Simmons, EVP and COO, responded that while wholesale sales were slightly down due to heavy maintenance, underlying demand for light products is up year-over-year. He noted that global inventories are below the 5-year average, supporting constructive fundamentals for gasoline and diesel. Regarding crude differentials, Simmons suggested that an increase in heavy sour barrels is likely, which would be favorable for Valero's system, as differentials have little room to tighten further.

Manav Gupta asked for the reasons behind the significant improvement in capture rates for the North Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions. He also questioned if Valero is currently operating in maximum diesel mode and how much yield flexibility remains.

Answer

Greg Bram, an executive, attributed the higher capture rates to winter-grade butane blending, strong wholesale performance, and more favorably priced Maya crude in the Gulf Coast. He also confirmed that Valero is currently in maximum diesel mode due to favorable crack spreads and will adjust if gasoline economics improve significantly.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired why refining crack spreads were trending below mid-cycle despite stable demand and whether this weakness was transient.

Answer

Gary Simmons, EVP and COO, explained that the negative sentiment is partly seasonal, citing the end of the summer driving season and RVP transition. While some global economic weakness has softened diesel demand, he emphasized that fundamentals remain strong, with very low gasoline and distillate inventories. Simmons anticipates that as inventories stay low and winter heating demand materializes, crack spreads should respond positively.

Manav Gupta congratulated Kinder Morgan on rating upgrades and asked for details on the Florida Gas Transmission projects, including their origin, specifics, and potential for upsizing. He also inquired about the tailwinds that drove the stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings and whether these factors are expected to persist into Q1.

Answer

Sital K. Mody, President of Natural Gas Pipelines, explained that as Kinder Morgan is not the operator, Energy Transfer would provide details on the origin, but confirmed the projects align with the Southeast growth theme and include a resiliency component. He noted an ongoing open season could lead to upsizing if demand exists. CEO Kimberly Dang added that both projects are backed by long-term, creditworthy contracts. Regarding Q4 outperformance, she attributed it to a tight gas network across intrastate, gathering (Eagle Ford, Haynesville), and interstate markets (Northeast), creating opportunities from supply/demand dislocations and volatility, with potential for similar events in 2026.

Manav Gupta congratulated Kinder Morgan on rating agency upgrades and asked for details on the Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) projects, how they originated, and the possibility of upsizing them given past trends. He also inquired about the specific tailwinds that drove the stronger-than-expected 4Q earnings and whether those tailwinds were expected to persist into 1Q.

Answer

President of Natural Gas Pipelines Sital Mody explained that the FGT projects are driven by Southeast growth and resiliency, with an ongoing open season that could lead to upsizing based on demand. CEO Kimberly Dang added that both projects are backed by long-term contracts with creditworthy counterparties. On 4Q outperformance, Dang attributed it to the entire gas business (intrastate, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Northeast interstate), driven by a tight network creating opportunities from supply/demand dislocations (weather, LNG), with potential for similar volatility in 2026.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group inquired about the drivers behind the upsizing of the Trident pipeline project from 1.5 to 2.0 BCF/d and asked for more details on the new NGPL projects that were added to the backlog.

Answer

CEO Kimberly Dang explained the Trident expansion was driven by LNG-related demand and was a relatively simple addition of compression. Sital Mody, President of Natural Gas Pipelines, added that their strategy is to sanction a viable project and then build upon it as more contracts are signed. Regarding the NGPL projects, Ms. Dang confirmed they are both to serve power demand, one in Arkansas and one in West Compton.

Manav Gupta asked if Kinder Morgan is seeing any early signs of recessionary demand across its end markets and requested more details on the new Bridge project, including its potential for being upsized.

Answer

CEO Kimberly Dang responded that the business is holding up well, with refined products volumes up 2% and strong natural gas demand expected to continue growing due to contracted LNG exports and storage refill needs. An unnamed executive explained that the Bridge project establishes a platform in the fast-growing South Carolina market, and while the potential to expand is 'great,' the timing will be dictated by customers. They noted the state's growing power, residential, and potential data center needs.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about the factors driving the increase in 2025 adjusted EPS growth guidance to 10% and asked about the long-term impact of AI-driven power demand on Kinder Morgan's natural gas business.

Answer

Kimberly Dang (Executive) explained that potential upside to the budget could come from higher commodity prices and the accretive Outrigger acquisition, which is not yet in the guidance. She affirmed that the trend of rising power demand from data centers is in its early stages and represents a significant long-term growth opportunity for natural gas, potentially exceeding the company's current projections.

Manav Gupta asked about Venture Global's role in addressing gas shortages in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and the unique aspects of the company's data science operations and investments.

Answer

CEO Michael Sabel highlighted Plaquemines' significant contribution to global LNG supply, moderating European prices, and the company's extra investments to maintain its schedule. He noted Venture Global's available capacity and strategic agreements, like with Greece, to support Eastern European energy security. Michael Sabel described facilities as complex machines for data acquisition, with Calcasieu Pass streaming ~222,000 data points every 10 seconds, informing operations and design changes. CFO Jack Thayer added this data science will enable CP2 to reach 30 MTPA.

Manav Gupta at UBS asked about Venture Global's potential role in assisting Ukraine with its gas supply shortages and sought insights into the company's advanced data science operations and the strategic investments made in this area.

Answer

CEO Michael Sabel highlighted Plaquemines' significant contribution to global LNG supply, mitigating European demand, and the company's extra investments to maintain its construction schedule, which helps moderate European LNG prices. He noted Venture Global's unique available capacity to support flows into the market, including the recent agreement with Greece to enhance Eastern European energy security. Regarding data science, Michael Sabel explained that facilities are viewed as complex machines generating massive data (222,000 data points every 10 seconds at Calcasieu Pass), which a dedicated team of data scientists and AI programmers uses for operational improvements and design changes, contributing to remarkable production performance and potential for CP2 to reach 30 MTPA. CFO Jack Thayer added that data science will help push CP2 to 30 MTPA.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG questioned the company's strategy for securing long-term natural gas supply for its growing LNG portfolio and asked about the key drivers that could push full-year EBITDA towards the high end of its guidance.

Answer

CEO Michael Sabel explained that for new projects like CP2, they are building longer pipelines to connect deeper into the US gas grid, including Permian supply, and will layer in term gas deals. For EBITDA upside, he pointed to the uncontracted cargo capacity for Q4, which provides optionality to capture strong demand from Europe and Asia, positioning Plaquemines' incremental supply to meet pent-up winter buying.

Manav Gupta from UBS inquired about Venture Global's strategy for securing long-term natural gas supply from the US to support its expanding LNG operations. He also asked about the key drivers that could push the company's full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA towards the high end of its guidance.

Answer

CEO Michael Sabel explained that for CP2 and future expansions, they are building longer pipelines to connect deeper into the gas grid, including access to Permian gas, and will layer in term gas supply deals. Regarding guidance, Sabel pointed to the upside optionality from uncontracted capacity, particularly in Q4, citing strong demand from Europe and Asia and the potential for a hot summer to drive winter buying.

Manav Gupta asked for an overview of Enbridge's renewables portfolio, specifically solar assets, and the potential for more deals like Clearfork with Meta, given the resurgence in solar stocks. He also requested details on the benefits and startup timeline for the Southern Illinois Connector project, a partnership with Energy Transfer.

Answer

Matthew Akman, Head of Renewable Energy, emphasized investment discipline in renewables while acknowledging strong customer demand, particularly from data centers, for interconnection-ready projects with strong local support and tax benefits. He highlighted significant interest in Project Cowboy in Wyoming. Greg Ebel, President and CEO, described the Southern Illinois Connector as opening a new market to Nederland, Texas, leveraging existing capacity on Spearhead and expanding the Platte system with pump refurbishment, indicating high confidence in execution and a working timeline.

Manav Gupta asked about Enbridge's renewables portfolio, particularly solar, and the potential for more deals like Clearfork with Meta, given the resurgence in solar stocks. He also followed up on the Southern Illinois Connector, asking for its benefits and confirming a 2028 startup, in light of Energy Transfer's comments on the crude type needed by US refiners.

Answer

Matthew Akman, Head of Renewable Energy, emphasized investment discipline, strong customer demand (especially from data centers), and the opportunity for interconnection-ready projects with strong local support while the production tax credit window is open, mentioning Project Cowboy as a significant potential project. Greg Ebel, President and CEO, confirmed the Southern Illinois Connector provides a new market to Nederland, Texas, for US refiners, highlighting its technical simplicity, use of existing Spearhead capacity, and Platte system expansion, leading to high confidence in execution.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG asked for more details on the Southern Illinois Connector project and its path forward following the open season.

Answer

EVP & President of Liquids Pipelines Colin Gruending explained that the project is a recontracting play to long-haul existing barrels further south to serve Louisiana refineries. He noted the open season runs into August, and the goal is to add long-term, sticky paths to the mainline by leveraging existing pipes and partnerships.

Manav Gupta noted the U.S. utility acquisitions appear to be performing better than expected and asked for color on positive surprises, also questioning if 2025 guidance is now conservative. He followed up on the rationale for the Traverse pipeline and Matterhorn interest acquisitions.

Answer

President and CEO Greg Ebel agreed the acquisitions are going well, citing stronger-than-anticipated gas demand from data centers and electrification as a key macro benefit. Michele Harradence, EVP of Gas Distribution, added that integration is proceeding smoothly. Greg Ebel maintained that guidance is appropriate, as Q4 is also a critical quarter. Cynthia Hansen, EVP of Gas Transmission, explained the Traverse and Matterhorn deals enhance the Permian "super system" at attractive multiples.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked what factors could drive Enbridge's 2025 results to the high end of its guidance range and inquired about the company's leverage to the growing power demand from data centers.

Answer

President & CEO Greg Ebel identified potential tailwinds for 2025 guidance, including a weaker Canadian dollar and colder weather, offset by potentially higher-for-longer interest rates. He then detailed significant activity driven by data center power demand, citing over 5 gigawatts of new gas-fired generation projects being supported by Enbridge's pipelines for customers like TVA and Duke Energy, in addition to 2 gigawatts of new solar projects.

Manav Gupta asked for more details on the benefits of the Whistler pipeline joint venture with MPLX and WhiteWater, and whether Enbridge has a long-term desire to become the operator of those assets.

Answer

Cynthia Hansen, EVP of Gas Transmission and Midstream, highlighted that the Whistler JV provides critical Permian egress and that the recent Blackcomb expansion FID demonstrates the growth potential. She praised the partners' operational track record. President and CEO Greg Ebel added that Enbridge has a long history as a successful JV partner and that the current structure is set to deliver significant value, indicating no immediate push to change the operating structure.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked if Canadian Natural Resources would consider participating in new pipeline projects, such as Energy Transfer's proposed South Illinois connector, to secure additional egress capacity for Canadian crude to the Midcontinent or Gulf Coast.

Answer

Scott Stauth, President, confirmed that Canadian Natural Resources actively reviews all egress opportunities, including those from Enbridge and TMX. He emphasized that increased egress capacity is crucial for maintaining strong differentials and is broadly positive for Canadian crude.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked if Canadian Natural Resources would consider participating in new pipeline projects, such as Energy Transfer's proposed South Illinois connector, to secure additional egress capacity for Canadian crude to Midcontinent and Gulf Coast refiners, where its crude is highly valued.

Answer

President Scott Stauth confirmed that Canadian Natural Resources actively reviews all egress opportunities, including those from Enbridge and TMX, to assess potential participation through volume commitments. He emphasized that increased egress capacity is crucial for maintaining strong differentials and is broadly positive for Canadian crude.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked about the operational and production benefits of closing the AOSP swap transaction with Shell and requested an outlook on AECO natural gas pricing, especially with LNG Canada starting up.

Answer

President Scott Seltz explained the AOSP swap adds 31,000 bbl/d of bitumen and creates significant synergies through 100% ownership, such as optimizing equipment and warehousing. On AECO pricing, he anticipates 'ebbs and flows' as it will take time to fill LNG Canada's full capacity, suggesting the market may remain soft in the near term.

Manav Gupta inquired about the performance and potential synergies of the recently acquired Duvernay assets, the expected closing date for the Shell asset swap, and the drivers behind the $100 million reduction in the 2025 capital budget.

Answer

Scott Stauth, President, confirmed the Duvernay assets are meeting expectations and the Shell swap is anticipated to close by the end of Q2 2025. He clarified that the $100 million capital reduction was driven by operational efficiencies, such as a 14% improvement in Duvernay well costs and other savings across thermal and mining operations, rather than by lower commodity prices.

Manav Gupta of UBS Financial Services Inc. asked about the performance and synergy potential of the recently acquired Duvernay assets, the closing timeline for the Shell asset swap, and whether the recent $100 million capital expenditure reduction was driven by efficiencies rather than commodity prices.

Answer

President Scott Stauth confirmed the Duvernay assets are meeting expectations and that the Shell swap should close by the end of Q2 2025. He affirmed the $100 million capex reduction stemmed from continuous improvement and efficiency gains, such as lower drilling costs, not from commodity price fluctuations, and noted these efforts are ongoing.

Manav Gupta requested a view on AECO natural gas prices for the next 18-24 months given upcoming LNG projects and asked for commentary on the necessity of Enbridge's planned mainline capacity expansion.

Answer

President Scott Stauth projected an uptick in AECO pricing into 2026 with LNG Canada coming online, though CNQ's focus remains on liquids-rich gas. Regarding the Enbridge expansion, he affirmed that the additional capacity will be needed and utilized long-term, with the most significant growth contributions expected from oil sands projects like CNQ's.

Manav Gupta asked for the company's near-term outlook on Canadian crude oil differentials, noting their recent widening and the impact of U.S. refiners cutting runs due to weaker product margins.

Answer

CFO Mark Stainthorpe identified three key factors impacting differentials: wider crack spreads for refiners, a significant drawdown of Alberta inventory stocks in excess of production, and the addition of Mexican crude into the U.S. Gulf Coast market. He noted these combined factors have pushed the differential from around $11 to the $15-$15.50 range.

Manav Gupta asked about the process and key factors that led to S&P's recent upgrade of TC Energy's outlook to stable from negative. He also sought clarification on the drivers that could push TC Energy closer to the higher end (8%) of its 6-8% EBITDA growth guidance for 2026, as investors perceive it as potentially conservative.

Answer

Sean O’Donnell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, attributed the S&P upgrade to TC Energy's consistent delivery on its Investor Day plan, including the on-time and in-service completion of Southeast Gateway (SGP) and adherence to capital expenditure ranges. Regarding the 2026 EBITDA guidance, Sean explained that the range is driven by new capital coming into service, the outcomes of up to half a dozen rate cases, and the growing influence of asset availability, commercial innovations, and technology (like robotics and AI) on cash flow productivity.

Manav Gupta asked about TC Energy's recent S&P upgrade to a stable outlook, seeking to understand the process and what factors finally led S&P to acknowledge the stable outlook. He also inquired about the 2026 EBITDA growth guidance of 6%-8%, asking what factors could push the company closer to the 8% end of the range versus 6%.

Answer

Sean O’Donnell (EVP and CFO) attributed the S&P upgrade to delivering on the plan introduced at the last investor day, specifically getting SGP done on time and within the $6 billion-$7 billion capital range, demonstrating consistent performance. Regarding the 2026 EBITDA growth, he explained that the baseline is capital coming into service, with up to half a dozen rate cases being the biggest driver of the range. Smaller but growing influences include asset availability, commercial innovations, and technology (robotics, AI, preventative maintenance) showing early signs of cash flow productivity. He noted a conservative approach to new assets and customer strategies.

Manav Gupta requested a progress update on the new projects announced at the recent Analyst Day and asked for more detail on the company's coal-to-gas switching opportunities.

Answer

Tina Faraca, EVP & COO of Natural Gas Pipelines, confirmed that the recently announced U.S. projects are progressing well, with FERC applications in development. She detailed significant coal-to-gas conversion opportunities, noting 9 gigawatts of coal capacity are set to retire by 2031 within 15 miles of TC's assets, and the company is in active discussions on an additional 7.5 gigawatts of conversion projects.

Manav Gupta asked about the potential impact of a reported DOT proposal to FERC that would limit the review period for data center connections to the power grid to 60 days, suggesting it could materially accelerate natural gas demand. He also inquired about the demand drivers for the expansion of the Price River Terminal.

Answer

Mackie McCrea (Co-CEO) stated they had not heard of the DOT proposal but agreed it would be a 'big boost to the pipeline business.' Regarding Price River Terminal, he highlighted the team's success in growing the business, significant locked-in acreage, the value of waxy oil for refineries, and synergistic downstream revenue possibilities.

Manav Gupta inquired about the potential impact of a reported draft proposal from Energy Secretary Wright to FERC, which would limit the review period for data center connections to the power grid to 60 days. He asked if this expedited process could materially accelerate demand for natural gas to support electricity generation. He also asked about the demand drivers for the expansion of the Price River Terminal.

Answer

Mackie McCrea (Co-CEO) stated that they had not heard about the FERC proposal but agreed it would be a significant boost for the pipeline business by expediting demand. Regarding the Price River Terminal expansion, McCrea highlighted the team's success in growing the business, noting that a significant percentage of acreage is locked in for many years. He explained that the expansion is driven by demand for valuable waxy oil from various refineries and also sees synergistic downstream revenue possibilities as barrels move to St. James and Nederland.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked if the share of growth capital allocated to natural gas projects would increase beyond 2025 and questioned the strategic benefits of vertical integration for the Lake Charles LNG facility.

Answer

Group CFO Dylan Bramhall confirmed it was "safe to assume" the capital allocation to natural gas would trend upwards. Co-CEO Marshall "Mackie" McCrea emphasized that the primary driver for the LNG project is the upstream pipeline transportation business, stating that the "real upside" comes from feeding the facility with ET's own pipeline network.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG asked if the new presidential administration has created tangible changes on the ground regarding permitting and support for the oil and gas industry. He also asked what factors could push 2025 EBITDA towards the high end of the guidance range.

Answer

Executive Mackie McCrea confirmed that the new administration has created a 'much more positive' environment, making it easier to build infrastructure with more certainty. Executive Dylan Bramhall addressed the guidance, noting the range is tight and performance is driven by commodity prices, spreads, and volumes. He explained that a shortfall in expected Q1 gas price volatility was offset by other factors, keeping them comfortable with the current range.

Manav Gupta of UBS requested an estimate for future natural gas demand growth from various sources and asked if a recent AI announcement from China (DeepSeek) had dampened data center discussions.

Answer

Executive Marshall "Mackie" McCrea estimated that Energy Transfer could capture 3-4 Bcf/d of new natural gas demand over the next 18-24 months from power plants and data centers. He dismissed the DeepSeek announcement as a competitive threat, stating that development partners view it as a motivator for the U.S. to maintain its leadership in AI.

Manav Gupta requested an update on the integration of the recently acquired WTG assets and the progress of the Permian joint venture with Sunoco LP.

Answer

Executive Mackie McCrea described the WTG acquisition as "great," highlighting the high-quality dedicated acreage and its downstream benefits for NGLs and pipelines. Regarding the Sunoco JV, he called it a "perfect fit" that complements ET's Permian footprint, particularly in counties like Howard and Dawson. McCrea noted that the partners have already identified numerous blending and synergy opportunities and are excited about the JV's growth potential.

Manav Gupta inquired about Targa Resources Corporation's competitive advantage and growth opportunities in Permian sour gas, particularly in Eddy and Lee counties, given increasing competition. He also asked for details on the Forza project, including its successful open season, lower CapEx, and attractive returns.

Answer

Patrick McDonie, President of Gathering and Processing, highlighted Targa's first-mover advantage, early investments in sour gas treating facilities, and extensive acreage tie-ups. Matt Meloy, CEO, added that Targa's system offers unmatched fungibility, redundancy, and multiple AGI wells. Jen Kneale, President, described Forza as a 36-mile interstate pipeline driven by producer interest, moving volumes from New Mexico to Texas, with returns commensurate with Targa's portfolio, leveraging existing and new plant volumes for flexibility.

Manav Gupta inquired about Targa Resources Corporation's competitive advantage and growth opportunities in Permian sour gas, given its first-mover status and increasing competition. He also asked for more details on the Forza project, including its successful open season and attractive returns.

Answer

President, Gathering and Processing Pat McDonie highlighted Targa's long-standing sour gas strategy, early investment in treating facilities, and acreage tie-ups, positioning them as a front-runner with unmatched fungibility and redundancy across their Red Hill and Bull Moose Wildcat systems. CEO Matt Meloy emphasized the comprehensive service offered to producers. President Jen Kneale described Forza as a 36-mile interstate pipeline driven by producer interest, designed to move volumes from New Mexico to more liquid Texas markets, with returns commensurate with Targa's portfolio, leveraging existing and new plant volumes for greater flexibility.

Manav Gupta inquired if the 100% acquisition of the Badlands assets has met expectations and asked about the criteria for potential bolt-on M&A in the Permian.

Answer

CEO Matthew Meloy confirmed the Badlands transaction performed as expected and noted that 100% ownership provides more strategic value for potential NGL opportunities. Regarding M&A, he stated that while Targa always looks, the bar is high as their core strategic needs are met, and the primary focus remains on high-return organic growth.

Manav Gupta inquired about the performance of the fully-owned Badlands asset and asked about the criteria for potential bolt-on M&A in the Permian.

Answer

CEO Matthew Meloy confirmed the Badlands asset is performing as expected and noted that 100% ownership provides greater strategic value for potential NGL-related opportunities. Regarding M&A, he stated that while Targa always looks, the bar is high as core strategic needs are met, and the primary focus remains on high-return organic growth projects.

Manav Gupta asked for the rationale behind moving forward with the Traverse pipeline and inquired about Targa's openness to small-scale, bolt-on M&A deals given recent market valuation changes.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Bobby Muraro explained the Traverse pipeline FID was driven by significant supply growth in the Permian and demand growth in South Texas, particularly from future LNG facilities. He noted the project connects these key centers and commercialization has gone well. CEO Matt Meloy stated that Targa's M&A posture is unchanged: the primary focus is on attractive organic growth, but the company will continue to evaluate bolt-on opportunities that supplement this growth, though the bar for such deals remains high.

Manav Gupta asked about Targa's scope and strategy regarding Permian natural gas egress pipelines, given the strong demand outlook. He also inquired about the company's appetite for bolt-on M&A deals.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Bobby Muraro highlighted the partnership on the Blackcomb pipeline and ongoing discussions for future projects to serve LNG and data center demand. CEO Matt Meloy added that Targa will continue to evaluate investments in long-haul takeaway and confirmed that the company's M&A posture remains unchanged, with a high bar for deals and a primary focus on high-return organic growth.

Manav Gupta requested more details on the newly announced Falcon 2 and East Driver processing plants, including the rationale for moving forward and their expected economics or build multiples.

Answer

Executive Matt Meloy stated the economics are consistent with the previously guided ~5.5x organic build multiple and that the projects were accelerated due to higher-than-anticipated volume growth. Executive Robert Muraro added that existing plants are coming online highly utilized, and these new plants are part of a continued effort to build system capacity to service producers effectively.

Manav Gupta inquired about the West Coast market dynamics, specifically how recent and anticipated refinery closures, combined with Marathon Petroleum's LA refinery upgrade, could lead to above mid-cycle margins for the next 8-12 quarters. He also asked about the sustainability of MPC's 10% dividend growth, supported by MPLX distributions and share buybacks.

Answer

CCO Rick Hessling highlighted the current $40 crack and the supply/demand response to closures, emphasizing MPC's competitive advantage with its integrated West Coast and Pacific Northwest system (Anacortes, Kenai, LA). CEO Maryann Mannen added that the LAR project, coming online in Q4, will enhance efficiency and EBITDA in 2026. EVP of Refining Michael Henschen noted a significant feedstock advantage with increased local California crude. Maryann Mannen confirmed that the 10% dividend growth is sustainable for the next couple of years, supported by declining share count from buybacks and MPLX's 12.5% distribution growth.

Manav Gupta inquired about the West Coast market dynamics, specifically the impact of refinery closures and Marathon Petroleum's ongoing upgrades, asking if the company anticipates generating above mid-cycle margins for the next 8-12 quarters. He also asked about the sustainability of MPC's 10% dividend growth, supported by MPLX distributions and share buybacks.

Answer

CCO Rick Hessling highlighted the efficient market response to supply/demand changes from refinery closures, emphasizing MPC's competitive advantage with its integrated West Coast and Pacific Northwest assets (Anacortes, Kenai, LA) and feedstock advantages. CEO Maryann Mannen added that the LAR project would further benefit them. Maryann Mannen confirmed that MPC is in a very good position to sustain 10% dividend growth for the next couple of years, supported by declining share count from buybacks and growing MPLX distributions.

Manav Gupta inquired about the drivers behind Marathon's exceptional 105% margin capture in Q2 and the outlook for crude quality discounts given OPEC's production hikes.

Answer

CEO Maryann Mannen attributed the performance to sustainable commercial improvements. Chief Commercial Officer Rick Hessling added that structural enhancements, regional value chain optimization, and focusing on strong diesel and jet fuel channels were key. Hessling also stated he expects crude differentials to widen in the second half of the year due to increased OPEC and Canadian supply.

Manav Gupta inquired about the near-to-medium-term outlook for crude quality discounts given potential OPEC volume increases. He also asked about the sustainability of MPLX's distribution growth following recent acquisitions and its ability to support MPC's buybacks.

Answer

Executive Rick Hessling described the outlook for wider light-heavy spreads as 'very positive' for MPC, given its position as the largest heavy crude refiner, and noted upside in Canadian heavy differentials. CEO Maryann Mannen affirmed that MPLX's 12.5% distribution increase is durable for the next few years, supported by a strong project pipeline and recent acquisitions. She confirmed this growing distribution enhances MPC's flexibility for capital returns, including buybacks.

Manav Gupta asked if the strong growth trajectory of MPLX could lead to its distributions funding not only MPC's dividend and CapEx but also share buybacks starting in 2026. He also inquired about the supply/demand dynamics on the U.S. West Coast, given recent and potential refinery shutdowns.

Answer

CEO Maryann Mannen affirmed that the durable growth and increasing distributions from MPLX are a key differentiator that provides MPC with flexibility for peer-leading capital returns, suggesting that growing distributions could indeed support increased share repurchases in the future. Regarding the West Coast, Mannen acknowledged the challenging regulatory environment but stated that MPC's Los Angeles refinery remains one of the most competitive in the region due to its integrated nature and feedstock flexibility, and the company continues to invest in its long-term viability and efficiency.

Manav Gupta requested details on the high-return capital investments at the Los Angeles and Galveston Bay refineries, particularly in light of competitors shutting down West Coast capacity. He also asked if the midstream growth strategy was exclusively organic or open to bolt-on acquisitions.

Answer

CEO Maryann Mannen detailed that the L.A. project, with a ~20% return, enhances competitiveness and reduces emissions. The Galveston Bay DHT project, also with a ~20% return, upgrades diesel. She confirmed MPLX's growth is fueled by organic projects, strong JV performance, and a 'wellhead-to-water' strategy, but also highlighted past bolt-on acquisitions like the Summit JV buyout as examples of their flexible approach.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG asked for the strategic rationale behind the Green River West expansion and how it contributes to Williams' footprint in the Mountain West region. He also inquired about the performance of the Cogentrix investment and any unexpected synergies derived from it.

Answer

COO Larry Larsen explained that the Green River West expansion is an addition to the Mountain West Overthrust pipeline system, serving industrial load growth in Southwest Wyoming, particularly in industrial and mining sectors, and supporting overall growth in the Mountain West region from power generation and industrial demand. President and CEO Chad Zamarin stated that the Cogentrix investment is "on track" and "still early days," delivering expected numbers for the year. He noted that the team is gaining insight into the market, particularly as Cogentrix operates power plants along the Transco footprint in PJM, New England ISO, and ERCOT.

Manav Gupta asked for the strategic rationale behind the Green River West expansion and how it contributes to Williams' footprint in Mountain West. He also requested an update on the Cogentrix investment, including its performance and any synergy surprises.

Answer

COO Larry Larsen explained that the Green River West expansion is another project on the Mountain West overthrust pipeline system, serving industrial load growth in Southwest Wyoming, particularly in industrial and mining sectors. He noted it strengthens ties to Rockies supply and supports continued growth in the Mountain West region for power generation and industrial load. President and CEO Chad Zamarin stated that the Cogentrix investment is on track and still in its early days, delivering expected numbers for the year. He highlighted that Cogentrix operates power plants along the Transco footprint in PJM, New England ISO, and ERCOT, providing beneficial market insight.

Manav Gupta of UBS requested details on the Rockies Columbia Connector project and asked how the relationship with the current administration has impacted permitting and policy influence.

Answer

EVP & COO Larry Larsen described the Rockies project as driven by rising power and reliability demand in the Pacific Northwest. President & CEO Chad Zamarin and SVP & General Counsel T. Lane Wilson stated that while they have always had a 'seat at the table,' there is growing recognition of the need for gas infrastructure, and they are hopeful for bipartisan permitting reform which would be a significant tailwind.

Manav Gupta of UBS requested more details on the Rockies Columbia Connector project and asked how the operating environment has changed under the new administration, particularly regarding permitting.

Answer

EVP & COO Larry Larsen described the Rockies project as being driven by rising power generation and reliability needs in the Pacific Northwest, with an open season showing exciting interest. On the political environment, President & CEO Chad Zamarin and SVP & General Counsel T. Lane Wilson stated that while they have always had a 'seat at the table,' there is growing recognition of the need for gas infrastructure, with permitting reform being a key potential tailwind.

Manav Gupta inquired about the expected demand pull on the Haynesville basin from LNG growth and how Williams can benefit. He also asked what factors could push the company's EBITDA growth toward the high end of its 5-7% long-term guidance for 2026 and 2027.

Answer

COO Larry Larson stated that growing LNG demand will create a significant pull on Haynesville supply, and Williams is actively working with customers on new projects to meet this demand. CEO Alan Armstrong noted that the current slate of high-return projects should drive performance toward the higher end of the 5-7% growth range, even as the company's earnings base grows larger.

Manav Gupta of UBS asked about the potential drivers that could push Williams to the high end of its 2025 guidance and requested more detail on the progress of coal-to-gas switching opportunities.

Answer

CFO John Porter identified several potential upside drivers for 2025 guidance, including better-than-expected performance in gathering and processing, strong results from the Sequent marketing business, early in-service dates for projects, and a favorable settlement of the Transco rate case. CEO Alan Armstrong highlighted that coal-to-gas switching is a steady "drumbeat," with significant activity in the MountainWest region and the Southeast, including projects in Alabama and Georgia.

Manav Gupta asked for details on two newly disclosed projects, the Wild Trail Project and the Dalton Lateral expansion. He also inquired about any strategic priority to simplify existing joint venture structures given the strong balance sheet.

Answer

COO Micheal Dunn detailed the projects: Wild Trail is a Northwest Pipeline compression project to increase capacity, while the Dalton Lateral expansion is a partnership with AGL to serve growing demand near Atlanta. EVP Chad Zamarin addressed the JV question, stating that while they continuously evaluate tucking in JV interests, these opportunities must compete for capital with their highly attractive organic growth projects. He cited the recent Discovery acquisition and Aux Sable sale as examples of active portfolio management.

Manav Gupta referenced Cheniere's revised Sabine Pass filings, noting a significant increase in projected MTPA in a short period. He asked how the engineering teams achieved this additional capacity so quickly and how it could be realized as the project comes online.

Answer

Zach Davis, EVP and CFO, credited Cheniere's engineers and operating staff for continuously finding ways to debottleneck facilities and maximize output. He explained that the FERC filing for the Sabine Pass expansion aims to permit as much capacity as possible, exploring all avenues with Bechtel to achieve the lowest cost per ton by optimizing MTPA. He reiterated that only projects meeting Cheniere's stringent financial standards will ultimately be sanctioned.

Manav Gupta asked about the revised Sabine Pass filings from June, specifically how Cheniere's engineering teams were able to identify and realize a significant amount of extra MTPA capacity in a short period compared to earlier filings.

Answer

Zach Davis, EVP and CFO, attributed the increased capacity to the ingenuity of Cheniere's engineers and operating staff in debottlenecking facilities. He explained that the FERC filing for the Sabine Pass expansion aims to permit the maximum possible capacity to optimize the cost per ton, pushing the 'art of the possible' in the permitting process, while ensuring any project ultimately meets Cheniere's stringent financial standards.

Manav Gupta asked about HF Sinclair's competitive edge for its multi-phased expansion in PADD 4 and PADD 5, and the near-term outlook for refining margins in the company's key regions.

Answer

Steve Ledbetter, EVP of Commercial, and Tim Go, CEO, highlighted HF Sinclair's strategic advantage due to existing infrastructure, Rockies barrel production, and the complementary nature of their projects to others. They expressed a bullish outlook on refining margins, citing global capacity shortages, strong distillate demand, and low product inventories.

Manav Gupta inquired about HF Sinclair's competitive edge in its multi-phased expansion project targeting PADD 4 and PADD 5, especially compared to other similar projects. He also asked for the near-term and medium-term outlook for refining margins in the West and Mid-Con regions.

Answer

Tim Go, CEO, and Steve Ledbetter, EVP of Commercial, highlighted HF Sinclair's strategic advantage due to existing infrastructure, lower implementation costs, and its focus on Rockies barrels for Nevada, complementing other Mid-Con/Gulf Coast projects. For refining margins, Steve Ledbetter and Tim Go expressed a bullish outlook, citing global capacity shortages, demand outpacing supply, strong distillate demand, and low product inventories, expecting supportive conditions through Q4 and into 2026.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group AG inquired about the drivers behind the strong refining capture rates in both regions, asking if it reflects progress towards becoming a more competitive refining system. He also asked about the balance between accelerating share buybacks and pursuing bolt-on M&A opportunities in lubricants and marketing.

Answer

Steven Ledbetter, EVP of Commercial, credited the improved capture rates to enhanced crude slate flexibility, better transportation logistics using integrated midstream assets, and strong operational performance, particularly in distillate production. Atanas Atanasov, EVP & CFO, affirmed a strong commitment to shareholder returns, stating that the company's cash flow generation allows it to pursue both capital returns and highly accretive organic growth projects with 20%+ IRRs.

Manav Gupta inquired about the drivers behind the strong Q1 performance in the Midstream segment, its future growth outlook, and the resilience and growth strategy for the Lubricants business.

Answer

Executive Steven Ledbetter attributed the record Midstream results to enhanced focus on product and crude pipelines and tariff optimization. CEO Timothy Go added that fully integrating the HEP business unlocked value. Regarding Lubricants, executive Matt Joyce highlighted the successful strategy of focusing on high-value markets and forward integration of base oils. Timothy Go also noted the company is evaluating small, bolt-on acquisition opportunities to accelerate growth in the Lubes segment.

Manav Gupta inquired about HF Sinclair's leverage to the tightening West Coast refining market and the company's strategy for growing its marketing business, specifically asking about the balance between organic growth and potential bolt-on acquisitions.

Answer

EVP, Commercial Steven Ledbetter and CEO Timothy Go explained that the company is well-positioned to supply the West Coast from multiple refineries, including Puget Sound and Navajo, leveraging its integrated pipeline system. Regarding the marketing business, Ledbetter emphasized that the primary focus is on organic growth, highlighting the 87 net new branded sites added in 2024 and a strong pipeline of future sites, with no immediate plans for inorganic acquisitions.

Manav Gupta asked for the strategic rationale behind the intense focus on growing the marketing business. He also questioned which specific initiatives have allowed the lubricants business to achieve a strong EBITDA run rate despite commodity price volatility and FIFO headwinds.

Answer

CEO Timothy Go and EVP of Commercial Steven Ledbetter explained that growing the marketing business leverages logistical advantages and the undervalued Dino brand, creating resiliency. They noted that placing branded barrels displaces lower-priced bulk barrels, creating an uplift captured in the refining segment's results. Regarding lubricants, an executive identified as Matt (likely SVP of Lubricants & Specialties Matt Joyce) detailed that success comes from operational efficiencies driven by new digital tools, optimizing the sales mix, and developing new high-value products like Circasol-5100 and INNOVATE.

Manav Gupta inquired about the specific conditions or performance metrics that could lead DT Midstream to achieve dividend growth closer to the upper end of its 5-7% target range. He also asked if the company would be more open to behind-the-meter solutions for data center providers, considering its historical preference for front-of-the-meter projects, provided the right customer and guarantees.

Answer

President and CEO David Slater explained that exceptional growth significantly exceeding the long-term target, similar to the 18% growth seen last year, would likely drive dividend growth to the higher end of the range. EVP and CFO Jeff Jewell added that dividend growth aligns with cash flow and EBITDA growth, while maintaining strong coverage above two times. Slater confirmed openness to behind-the-meter opportunities, emphasizing that the structure, counterparty quality, and commercial terms are key, expecting to secure some such projects.

Manav Gupta asked about factors that could drive DT Midstream's dividend growth closer to the high end (7%) of its 5%-7% target range and the company's openness to behind-the-meter solutions for data center providers, given past preference for front-of-the-meter.

Answer

David Slater (President and CEO, DT Midstream) and Jeff Jewell (EVP and CFO, DT Midstream) explained that dividend growth aligns with cash flow and EBITDA growth, with exceptional growth exceeding the long-term target likely leading to higher-end dividend growth while maintaining strong coverage. Slater confirmed openness to both front-of-the-meter and behind-the-meter opportunities, emphasizing the importance of commercial structure and counterparty quality, with DTM's role focused on pipeline infrastructure, not power generation.

Manav Gupta from UBS Group AG asked about DT Midstream's ongoing appetite for bolt-on acquisitions and the criteria used for evaluating potential deals. He also inquired about the tangible impacts of the new federal administration on the permitting process and project execution.

Answer

President & CEO David Slater affirmed that the company is always looking for bolt-on opportunities that align with its core strategy of growing its high-quality, long-tenor pipeline segment, but any M&A must compete with a robust organic growth backlog. Slater described the new administration as a "breath of fresh air," citing a more constructive attitude from agencies like FERC and efforts to reduce friction for large-scale energy infrastructure investment.

Manav Gupta asked what gives DTM the confidence to reaffirm its 2025 and 2026 guidance amid significant macroeconomic uncertainty. He also questioned if the underlying demand for data center power has changed on the ground, given announcements from some tech companies about pulling back spend.

Answer

President and CEO David Slater attributed the confidence to the durable, intentionally-built portfolio, which has no commodity exposure, minimal volumetric exposure, and is 70% supported by demand-based contracts. EVP and CFO Jeffrey Jewell added that the balance sheet is also strong, with no debt maturities until 2029 and over $1 billion in liquidity. On data centers, Slater distinguished between site-specific projects, which are in a final commercialization phase, and utility-scale generation, which is advancing steadily due to reliability concerns and direct data center connections to the utility grid.

Manav Gupta asked for elaboration on how ONEOK could benefit from the ongoing AI revolution and the associated data center build frenzy in the U.S. Manav Gupta also inquired about the importance and necessity of the recently announced Eiger Express pipeline project.

Answer

Sheridan Swords, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, revealed that ONEOK has been contacted by over 30 data center projects seeking natural gas supply for electricity generation. He highlighted ONEOK's competitive advantage in speed to market for projects located near its pipelines, anticipating low-capital, high-return opportunities. Sheridan Swords and Pierce Norton, President and Chief Executive Officer, emphasized the Eiger Express project's importance in meeting growing LNG demand, particularly from the Permian Basin. They noted its complementary role to the Matterhorn pipeline, firm customer commitments, and its contribution to alleviating existing capacity tightness.

Manav Gupta asked for elaboration on how ONEOK could benefit from the AI revolution and the associated data center build frenzy in the U.S. Gupta also inquired about the importance and necessity of the recently announced Eiger Express pipeline project.

Answer

Sheridan Swords, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, stated that ONEOK has been contacted by over 30 data center projects seeking natural gas for electricity generation, with ONEOK having a competitive advantage for many due to pipeline proximity, leading to low-capital, high-return projects. Swords and Pierce Norton, President and Chief Executive Officer, emphasized Eiger Express's role in meeting growing LNG demand from the Permian Basin, complementing the Matterhorn pipeline, and benefiting from firm customer commitments and tight existing capacity.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group asked about the benefits of acquiring the remaining interest in the Delaware Basin JV and requested an update on the Elk Creek pipeline expansion's status and capacity.

Answer

President and CEO Pierce Norton explained that buying the remaining JV stake was a strategic move to gain full operational and capital allocation flexibility in the growing Delaware Basin. EVP & CCO Sheridan Swords clarified that the Elk Creek pipeline expansion is already complete, with its capacity now over 400,000 barrels per day, bringing total Bakken NGL pipeline capacity to 575,000 barrels per day.

Manav Gupta requested a walkthrough of a presentation slide (Slide 5), asking if it implied roughly $1.3 billion in incremental EBITDA by 2027 from the recent acquisitions, and also asked to quantify the impact of Q1 weather headwinds.

Answer

CFO Walter Hulse confirmed the slide's 'punch line' is that synergies and new growth projects enabled by the acquisitions are expected to drive significant outperformance versus standalone plans. Regarding weather, he stated that while there was an impact, winter conditions in North Dakota are always factored into their Q1 forecast and were in line with expectations.

Manav Gupta asked about the factors that could drive results toward the high end of the 2025 guidance, particularly for the NGL and Refined Products segments. He also inquired about any positive operational surprises from the Medallion and EnLink acquisitions.

Answer

CFO Walter Hulse stated that reaching the high end of guidance could be driven by faster synergy realization, increased producer activity, and the cumulative effect of numerous small optimization projects. CCO Sheridan Swords added that significant positive surprises have emerged from integrating the new assets, citing quick system connections, rapid crude marketing development in the Permian, and logistical efficiencies as examples of synergies that 'boil out' once teams collaborate.

Manav Gupta of UBS asked for an update on the Magellan acquisition synergies a year post-close and inquired if similar stand-alone growth projects have been identified for the Medallion assets.

Answer

Sheridan Swords, Executive Vice President, stated that Magellan synergies are exceeding expectations, particularly from high-return, small-capital projects that will ramp up in 2025. For Medallion, he noted that while specific projects aren't yet modeled, they expect to find similar low-capital, high-return opportunities once the teams are fully integrated, mirroring the experience with Magellan.

Manav Gupta asked about the factors driving the improvement in the feed segment margins and the outlook for 2026. He also questioned if the REMS balance could become more attractive if facilities heavily dependent on imported feedstocks were to shut down due to penalties.

Answer

CEO Randall Stuewe attributed feed segment improvement to rising feedstock prices and improving protein prices globally, expecting momentum into Q4 and next year. Stuewe and CFO Bob Day agreed that the RINs balance would be more constructive if less efficient plants, especially those reliant on foreign feedstocks, behaved rationally or shut down, given the substantial losses they face and the larger RVO for 2026/2027.

Manav Gupta asked about the factors driving the improvement in the feed segment margins and the outlook for this segment into 2026. He also questioned if the REMS balance would look more attractive if facilities heavily dependent on imported feedstocks were to shut down.

Answer

Randall Stuewe (CEO) attributed feed segment improvements to building momentum, rising feedstock prices (though slightly off for Q4), improving global protein prices, and strong execution. He expects this momentum to carry into Q4 and next year. Regarding REMS, Randall Stuewe (CEO) and Robert Day (CFO) explained that the proposed RVO for 2026 and 2027 is substantially larger, creating a deficit even with similar production. They believe the balance would be more constructive if less efficient producers exited, and foreign feedstock penalties would incentivize higher domestic feedstock prices.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group inquired about the positive impacts of recent U.S. renewable fuel policies, including the revised RVO and LCFS amendments, on Darling's domestic feedstock and renewable diesel business.

Answer

COO Matt Jansen and CFO Robert Day confirmed that these policies are creating a more domestic-oriented market, which is beneficial for U.S. fat pricing and Darling's Feed segment. They noted that while some feedstock flexibility is lost, the overall impact is positive for renewable diesel margins. Regarding California's LCFS, Day stated that the credit bank is declining, signaling a positive price trend, though the exact price movement depends on market dynamics.

Manav Gupta of UBS requested a bridge to the approximately $250 million in DGD EBITDA needed to meet guidance and asked for an update on innovative products, such as those for blood sugar control.

Answer

CEO Randall Stuewe explained that guidance is supported by expectations of higher RIN prices (to ~$1.50) and DGD realizing the full Producer's Tax Credit (PTC) benefit starting in Q2. CFO Bob Day noted that current RIN production is lagging the mandate, creating upward price pressure. Regarding innovation, Day highlighted the Nextida glucose control product and other high-margin collagen peptides with targeted health benefits, which are driving growth in the Food segment.

Manav Gupta asked for an explanation of how the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit is uniquely beneficial for Darling Ingredients and requested elaboration on the company's plans to increase Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production.

Answer

Bob Day, CFO, explained that 45Z is a CI score-adjusted credit for U.S. producers, which favors Darling as the largest producer of low-CI feedstocks like animal fats and used cooking oil. Matt Jansen, COO of North America, added that the company is actively exploring SAF capacity expansion at either its Port Arthur or Norco facilities, driven by the successful startup of its first SAF unit.

Manav Gupta asked if lower-quality renewable diesel production is shutting down, if this trend will accelerate with the PTC transition, and about margin enhancement opportunities in the Feed segment for 2025.

Answer

CEO Randall C. Stuewe and Chief Strategy Officer Bob Day confirmed that the market is reevaluating RD investments and that positive biodiesel margins will be necessary to meet 2025 mandates, likely leading to idling of less efficient plants. Management also noted that operational improvements and any uplift in fat prices could push Feed segment margins back to the 23-25% range.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked about the company's focus on increasing market share in uncooked sausage categories and inquired about the expected earnings seasonality between the third and fourth quarters.

Answer

Steven France, President of Packaged Meats, explained that while uncooked sausage is a focus, the company prioritizes its efforts on higher-profitability categories. He and CFO Mark Hall confirmed that Q4 is typically stronger than Q3 due to higher volumes of seasonal hams sold during the holiday season.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked about market share ambitions in uncooked sausage categories and the expected earnings seasonality between the third and fourth quarters.

Answer

Steven France, President of Packaged Meats, explained that while uncooked sausage is a focus, the company prioritizes higher-profitability categories. He also reiterated that Q4 is typically stronger than Q3 in both volume and profitability due to seasonal holiday ham shipments.

Manav Gupta asked for clarification on Smithfield's dividend policy, noting the initial payout was strong, and inquired about how the dividend might grow in the future, such as being tied to a percentage of net income.

Answer

CFO Mark Hall stated that the company's dividend policy targets a payout of 50% of net income. He added that Smithfield expects this to be a stable and growing amount over time, supported by the business's significant cash flow generation and subject to Board of Directors approval.

Sonia, on behalf of Manav Gupta, asked how Plains All American factors basin-level growth into its M&A strategy and inquired about real-time demand signals from the refining and export markets.

Answer

EVP & CCO Jeremy Goebel explained that the company uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for all potential acquisitions, focusing on integrated network contributions and return thresholds rather than just basin growth. He also noted that refining demand signals have been strengthening over the past six months. Chairman, CEO & President Willie Chiang added that despite short-term volatility, he is constructive on long-term global growth.

Manav Gupta asked what factors could drive 2025 results to the high end of the guidance range, similar to 2024's outperformance. He also inquired about the strategic potential of the Ironwood acquisition to expand Plains' eastern footprint.

Answer

Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO, identified stronger volume growth and higher oil prices as key potential drivers, noting positive momentum from producer activity could push Permian growth higher. Jeremy Goebel, an executive, added that the Ironwood acquisition's western assets create synergies with the existing system, while its eastern assets offer a new area for integration and future growth, with the goal of compressing the acquisition multiple over time.

Manav Gupta asked for the key factors that allowed Plains to indicate performance at the top end of its raised guidance and requested more details on the strategic fit of the Fivestone Permian gathering system acquisition.

Answer

EVP & CFO Al Swanson attributed the strong performance to broad-based strength across both the crude and NGL segments, including better-than-expected Permian volumes and NGL recoveries, rather than a single factor. EVP & CCO Jeremy Goebel described the Fivestone acquisition as a 'bread and butter' transaction, noting it was an already-connected system that seamlessly integrated more barrels and strengthened a key producer relationship.

Manav Gupta asked about the sustainability of the lower operating expenses seen in the quarter and inquired about the potential for redeeming preferred equity to lower the cost of capital.

Answer

Executive Chris Chandler clarified that some of the lower operating costs were due to deferring spend into the second half and are not entirely sustainable, though the company remains focused on cost optimization. CFO Al Swanson stated there is no change in their thinking on redeeming preferreds at this time, but it may be reconsidered in the medium to long term.

Manav Gupta requested an outlook on LCFS credit prices for the remainder of 2025 and asked about the potential financial benefit from monetizing investment tax credits (ITCs) in the coming year.

Answer

President & CEO Andrew Littlefair stated that new LCFS rules are constructive and should lead to firming prices through the rest of the year and into the next as the credit bank is worked down. CFO Robert Vreeland explained that ITCs from new projects provide a significant inflow of capital to reduce net project outlay and enhance returns. Littlefair added that for the 100%-owned Texas project, the company will receive the full ITC benefit without splitting it with a partner.

Manav Gupta of UBS Group inquired about the $40 million in synergies from the ARRIS deal, asking if synergy-related capital would be required and how the transaction impacts long-term distribution growth. He also sought clarity on whether the projected 2026 CapEx increase is a one-year event or will extend into 2027.

Answer

President and CEO Oscar Brown clarified that the synergies are primarily G&A-related and require minimal capital. He stated the deal supports the existing mid-single-digit distribution growth outlook but noted that WES will prioritize building coverage over accelerating growth. He also confirmed that the majority of capital for major projects is slated for 2026, with spending expected to normalize in 2027.

Manav Gupta from UBS Group asked for management's perspective on global crude quality discounts, particularly the outlook for heavy/sour barrels versus light/sweet barrels, and specifically commented on the tightening WCS differential.

Answer

President & CEO Will Monteleone responded that while future incremental supply should theoretically expand the heavy-light differential, this has not yet materialized in the prompt market. Regarding WCS, he acknowledged it has been tighter than expected but anticipates some widening due to incremental supply from Latin America and upcoming refinery turnarounds.

Manav Gupta from UBS Group asked for Par Pacific's perspective on global crude quality differentials, particularly for heavy sour barrels, and specifically inquired about the recent tightening of the WCS differential.

Answer

President & CEO Will Monteleone stated that while future supply should theoretically widen the heavy-light differential, it has not yet materialized in the prompt market. Regarding WCS, he acknowledged it has been tighter than expected but suggested that incremental supply from Latin America and upcoming turnarounds could lead to wider differentials.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about Par Pacific's appetite for bolt-on M&A in its Logistics and Retail segments and asked if the company was observing any signs of recessionary demand in its markets.

Answer

President and CEO Will Monteleone responded that few M&A opportunities can currently compete with share repurchases, which he views as the best capital allocation alternative. He also confirmed that the company has not seen any demand reduction across its markets, noting that demand is flat to slightly up and that the retail business can be countercyclical.

Manav Gupta of UBS sought to confirm reports that the Washington index had improved by approximately $7 per barrel in February. He also asked for management's perspective on how the current market tightness on the West Coast, potentially exacerbated by a competitor's extended outage, could play out and benefit Par Pacific's operations.

Answer

SVP and CFO Shawn Flores confirmed that the Washington index was indeed up approximately $7 per barrel month-to-date in February compared to January. President and CEO William Monteleone commented that the combination of heavy planned maintenance and unplanned outages on the West Coast could keep the market tight through the summer, potentially testing the limits of arbitrage volumes and creating a favorable environment for their assets.

Manav Gupta of UBS requested more detail on the outlook for crude differentials for the Hawaii region over the next six to nine months.

Answer

President and CEO William Monteleone explained that while Q4 guidance shows a modest reduction, it is based on lagged data. He noted that forward-looking indicators are favorable, with softening freight costs, reduced backwardation, and a softer physical market all pointing toward directional improvements in landed crude differentials for Hawaii.

Manav Gupta from UBS Group AG asked about the board's thinking on reinstating a dividend, given the constructive refining outlook and deleveraging progress. He also sought CVR's perspective on the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) process and the potential for reallocation of waived volumes.

Answer

CEO David Lamp affirmed the company's goal to return to being a 'dividend machine' and that the board regularly reviews the possibility, but the current focus remains on deleveraging before committing to a sustainable dividend. On SREs, Lamp described the Wynnewood refinery as a 'poster child' for an exemption due to disproportionate economic harm and stated CVR will pursue legal action if necessary. He also asserted his belief that there is no legal requirement for the EPA to reallocate waived volumes.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about the refining market macro, specifically the demand outlook in CVR's operating regions, and the company's perspective on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), including the potential decoupling of D4 and D6 RINs.

Answer

CEO David Lamp responded that refining market fundamentals are improving, evidenced by product inventories falling below 5-year averages, suggesting a correcting supply-demand balance. He noted that while diesel demand is slow, the crack spread is likely too low. Regarding the RFS, Mr. Lamp stated it is a "highly controversial issue" and advocated for decoupling D4 and D6 RINs by lowering the D6 mandate. He heavily criticized the RFS program for increasing fuel prices for consumers and urged the EPA to take action to minimize RIN costs.

Manav Gupta inquired about CVR Energy's capital allocation strategy, specifically weighing debt paydown against reinstating a dividend, and asked about the capital expenditure and timeline for projects aimed at increasing jet fuel yield.

Answer

CFO Dane Neumann stated that deleveraging the term loan is a key focus, but a dividend could potentially return before the loan is fully repaid, contingent on sustained market strength. CEO David Lamp added that the Board reviews the dividend quarterly and its likelihood increases with improving crack spreads. Regarding jet fuel, Mr. Lamp explained the primary constraint is building a customer base, not capital. He noted the necessary piping and tankage work is minor and is expected to be completed by the end of Q3 2025, enabling jet fuel production at the Coffeyville refinery.

Manav Gupta asked for CVR Energy's perspective on the refining macro environment, specifically what catalysts would be needed for a recovery to mid-cycle margins, given management's comments about oversupply and the need for capacity closures.

Answer

CEO David Lamp characterized the current market as oversupplied rather than facing a demand issue, with Mid-Con demand remaining strong. He explained that refining capacity shut down during COVID has largely been added back, and a sustained margin recovery would require either significant demand growth or additional capacity rationalization globally, especially in light of pressures from EVs and new international refineries.

Manav Gupta sought to quantify the number of opportunity barrels lost at Christina Lake due to the wildfire shutdown and asked for an outlook on the heavy-light oil differential for the remainder of the year.

Answer

President & CEO Jon McKenzie estimated the lost production from the Christina Lake shutdown was about 2 million barrels. EVP of Commercial, Geoff Murray, addressed the differential, noting that the TMX pipeline is working as intended to keep the Alberta differential tight to the Gulf Coast, a trend he expects to persist through Q4.

Manav Gupta asked for a quantification of the production barrels lost due to the Christina Lake wildfire shutdown and requested an outlook for the heavy-light oil differential for the remainder of the year.

Answer

Jon McKenzie, Director, President & CEO, estimated the lost production from the Christina Lake incident was approximately 2 million barrels. Geoff Murray, EVP of Commercial, added that the TMX pipeline is functioning as expected to keep the Alberta differential tight to the U.S. Gulf Coast, though the global differential could be impacted by potential OPEC+ production increases.

Manav Gupta asked for an update on the progress and timeline for the 30,000 bbl/d volume growth project at Foster Creek and about the risk management plan for the significant Q2 turnarounds.

Answer

CEO Jon McKenzie confirmed the Foster Creek project is on track, with steam installation finishing this summer and other facilities by year-end, positioning it for first oil and production growth in early 2026. He also stated that the company is nearing the end of a heavy maintenance period, with the vast majority of turnaround work to be completed in Q2, significantly derisking operations for the second half of the year.

Manav Gupta asked for Cenovus's outlook on the heavy-light oil price differential and its corresponding impact on the company's integrated business segments.

Answer

CEO Jon McKenzie stated that a narrow differential is a net positive for Cenovus, as the benefit to its Upstream business outweighs the negative impact on its Downstream operations. Executive Geoff Murray added that the TMX pipeline is effectively keeping differentials narrow and this is expected to persist, with various future egress options also being explored.

Manav Gupta of UBS sought clarity on the company's preference between share buybacks and variable dividends for shareholder returns and asked for the reasoning behind raising the full-year upstream volume guidance.

Answer

Executive Kam Sandhar reiterated that while the base dividend will grow predictably, the company currently sees share repurchases as the most attractive use of excess free funds flow due to the share price's value. Executive Jonathan McKenzie explained the upstream guidance was raised to reflect strong performance in the first half of the year and confidence in execution for the second half, particularly a strong Q4 post-turnaround.

Manav Gupta questioned PBF Energy's cash position outlook through Q3 and its ability to operate without new financing, and also asked for more details on the potential data center project at its Delaware site.

Answer

CFO Karen Davis affirmed that the company has ample liquidity and a net debt-to-cap ratio of 30%, positioning it well to manage through the current period. President & CEO Matthew Lucey added that the collaborative relationship with insurers mitigates working capital swings. Regarding the data center, Lucey confirmed PBF is working with Starwood but has nothing definitive to announce.

Manav Gupta of UBS asked for the company's outlook on heavy-light crude spreads following OPEC's production changes and sought commentary on the evolving regulatory environment for refineries in California.

Answer

Executive Thomas O'Connor and President and CEO Matthew Lucey both expressed optimism that increasing OPEC+ production should lead to a widening of heavy crude differentials, directly benefiting PBF. On California, Lucey noted a growing recognition within the state of the critical need for its refining products, citing more collaborative conversations and highlighting the strategic importance of PBF's assets amid projected market shortages.

Manav Gupta from UBS asked a theoretical question about whether a potential peace between Russia and Ukraine could widen heavy-light crude differentials, benefiting PBF. He also asked if the Torrance refinery could run at higher rates to capitalize on the Martinez outage.

Answer

Executive Thomas O'Connor agreed that a resolution could be a positive catalyst for wider light-heavy differentials, particularly in the Atlantic Basin. President and CEO Matthew Lucey confirmed the Torrance refinery is running and will be maximized to meet market demand for products in California.

Manav Gupta requested PBF's view on global heavy-light crude spreads for 2025, including the impact of Canadian production and the TMX pipeline, and asked for the drivers behind the quarter-over-quarter improvement in Mid-Continent results.

Answer

Executive Thomas O'Connor explained that the heavy crude market strength likely peaked seasonally in Q3 and expects it to loosen with potential OPEC+ tapering and a heavy Q1 turnaround schedule. Regarding the Mid-Con, President and CEO Matthew Lucey stated there was no single major driver, attributing the improved performance to the Toledo refinery running well throughout the year without significant operational issues.

Manav Gupta inquired about the earnings cadence for the newly expanded Canadian fractionation complex and asked for more details on the strategic benefits of the Black Knight Midstream acquisition.

Answer

Executive Chris Chandler explained that the Canadian facility's earnings will ramp up through 2025 and reach a full run rate in 2026 as new contracts take effect. An unnamed executive added that the Black Knight asset is strategically located in the core Northern Midland Basin, offering long-term capital synergies and was acquired at an attractive purchasing multiple.

Manav Gupta of UBS inquired about the performance of the recently acquired Barilla Draw assets and asked about customer demand for the proposed behind-the-meter power generation solution.

Answer

CEO Jamie Welch described the Barilla Draw acquisition as 'fantastic,' stating it has 'exceeded our expectations' with strong activity and more to come. Regarding the power project, Welch explained it is a synergistic partnership with a couple of customers that could serve as a 'beta test' for future, similar projects, calling it 'smart business' to optimize costs.

Manav Gupta of UBS sought clarification on the company's strategy for Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), asking if they are pursuing them retroactively for past years in addition to a forward-looking basis, and if they expect relief even if RIN prices rise.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq confirmed they are seeking SREs both retroactively to 2019 and going forward. Executive Mohit Bhardwaj added significant detail, quantifying the past compliance cost for 2019-2020 at nearly $300 million and noting the cost for 2021-2024 is substantially higher. He expressed strong optimism that the EPA will grant the exemptions as required by law.

Manav Gupta inquired about the strategic improvement plan for the El Dorado refinery and the growth and deconsolidation strategy for Delek Logistics (DKL), including the role of bolt-on acquisitions.

Answer

Joseph Israel, EVP of Operations, detailed that El Dorado's performance is being enhanced through Enterprise Optimization Plan (EOP) initiatives focused on product mix, yield recovery, and logistics. Avigal Soreq, President and CEO, and Mark Hobbs, EVP of Corporate Development, confirmed the strategy to grow DKL via accretive acquisitions while methodically reducing DK's ownership to unlock value, highlighting a new tax-efficient unit repurchase program as a key tool.

Manav Gupta asked for insight into the potential exit rate EBITDA for Delek Logistics (DKL) in 2025, given its growth projects. He also asked if the new $100 million cost-saving plan would allow Delek to approach cash breakeven if refining margins remain depressed.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq declined to provide specific 2025 guidance for DKL but an executive pointed to a previously mentioned net addition of $70 million in midstream EBITDA as a directional indicator. Avigal Soreq confirmed the $100 million Enterprise Optimization Plan (EOP) is a self-help initiative designed to bring the company close to cash breakeven even in a below mid-cycle environment, especially when combined with lower capital expenditures.

Manav Gupta from UBS inquired about the company's policy for shareholder returns given its strong free cash flow generation. He also asked about the potential for small, bolt-on acquisitions and in which segments they might occur.

Answer

CFO Curt Calaway stated that while free cash flow is strong, the company is focused on reaching its long-term net leverage target of 2.0x, down from the current 2.3x. The dividend remains the primary method for returning cash to shareholders. On M&A, he confirmed the company remains selective, with a focus on opportunities in the value-added portions of its portfolio.

Manav Gupta of UBS asked about the company's capital allocation strategy once its leverage drops below the long-term target of 2.0x, questioning if the target would be revised or if excess cash would be returned to shareholders.

Answer

CFO Curt Calaway reiterated that the company's capital priorities remain unchanged: maintaining financial strength, investing in the business, and returning cash to shareholders. He noted that while they are pleased with the progress from 4.1x to 2.3x leverage, they still have work to do to reach their target, but are committed to actions like the recent $750 million debt payoff and their 13th consecutive annual dividend increase.

Manav Gupta requested a progress update on three major projects scheduled for H1 2026 completion and asked for Pembina's internal outlook on WCSB volume growth for gas, liquids, and oil.

Answer

Executive Jaret Sprott confirmed that the K3 Cochin, Wapiti Gas Plant expansion, and RFS IV projects are all proceeding well, on time, and on budget with no supply chain issues. President and CEO J. Burrows stated that Pembina's internal forecast for WCSB growth aligns with third-party data, projecting mid-single-digit growth, though market volatility adds uncertainty.

Manav Gupta asked for an update on discussions with data center providers and inquired about the key factors that could drive free cash flow and EBITDA to the high end of the 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO Jillian Evanko characterized talks with data center hyperscalers as 'consistent,' driven by their increasing power and heat rejection needs due to AI. CFO Joseph Brinkman and Evanko explained that achieving the high end of guidance depends on strong EBITDA conversion, normalized CapEx, lower integration costs, and faster conversion of the commercial pipeline into revenue, especially from orders booked in H1 2025.

Manav Gupta commented on the strong deleveraging progress and asked about the specific ways Chart Industries (GTLS) benefits from a potential uptick in the nuclear power cycle.

Answer

CEO Jillian Evanko confirmed the company's focus on deleveraging. Regarding nuclear, she explained that Chart serves traditional plants with tanks and fans, and can now support Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) with gas circulators and air coolers from the Howden portfolio. She noted an increase in commercial activity and quoting for SMRs, though it remains a small part of the overall business.

Manav Gupta inquired about the outlook for the hydrogen business and the likelihood of more U.S. hydrogen hub funding announcements before the presidential election.

Answer

CEO Jillian Evanko described hydrogen demand as global and broadening in application. While she anticipates progress on the DOE's hydrogen hub funding, she reiterated that any future benefits from these hubs are not included in the company's medium-term outlook, representing potential upside. She also stressed Chart's manufacturing flexibility, as equipment serves both hydrogen and traditional energy.

Manav Gupta asked for an assessment of the updated Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and its potential to drive credit prices back to a range of $95-$100 in 2025. He also inquired about the market traction of Cummins' new 15-liter RNG engine and its potential to be a game-changer for RNG demand.

Answer

Eric McAfee, Founder, Chairman, and CEO, explained that the updated LCFS is designed to fund new projects and that with the credit bank projected to deplete by 2027, prices are headed toward the maximum of approximately $220. He also noted that Cummins' X15 engine shows performance equal to diesel with lower emissions and cost, viewing it as a long-term solution that will drive demand for Aemetis's carbon-negative RNG.