Marcio Farid Filho

Marcio Farid requested clarification on lithium demand expectations, specifically whether the 25% growth to 1.5 million tons referred to 2025 or 2026, and asked for more details on 2026 demand and the strong growth in ESS demand. He also inquired about the Codelco deal's implications for license revisions and the deferral of Salar Futuro CapEx beyond 2030. Finally, he asked about iodine supply/demand conditions, the sustainability of prices above $70/kilo, and other potential areas of supply growth.

Answer

Pablo Hernandez, VP of Strategy and Development, SQM, clarified that the 1.5 million metric tons and 25% year-over-year growth referred to 2025, with 2026 expectations reaching over 1.7 million metric tons. He noted strong ESS demand growth of 40-50% year-over-year for 2025, expected to remain stable next year. Ricardo Ramos, General Manager and CEO, SQM, stated that the Codelco agreement will take effect upon signing, not 2030. He explained that initial investments for the Salar Futuro project are expected to start in 2030 or 2031, thus not affecting CapEx in the next three to four years. Pablo Altimiras, General Manager Nitrates Iodine Division, SQM, indicated that iodine supply and demand are tight this year due to a lack of additional supply, but demand is expected to grow by 3% next year with more capacity, mainly from Calicheor in Chile.

Marcio Farid requested clarification on SQM's 2025 lithium demand growth expectations (25% to 1.5 million tons), details on 2026 demand, and specific insights into the strong growth of Energy Storage Systems (ESS) demand. He also inquired about the Codelco deal's implications for license revisions, potential CapEx deferrals for Salar Futuro beyond 2030, and the sustainability of iodine prices above $70 per kilo given overall supply and demand conditions.

Answer

Pablo Hernandez, VP of Strategy and Development, confirmed 1.5 million metric tons and 25% year-over-year growth for 2025, with 2026 expectations exceeding 1.7 million metric tons. He noted ESS demand growth of 40-50% year-over-year for 2025, expected to remain stable. Gerardo Andrés Illanes González, CFO, clarified that the Codelco agreement takes effect upon signing, and the Salar Futuro project's initial investment is projected for 2030-2031, thus not impacting CapEx in the next 3-4 years. Pablo Altimiras, General Manager Nitrates Iodine Division, stated that current year iodine supply and demand are tight, with demand growth of 3% expected next year due to new capacity, primarily from Calicheor in Chile, which is not expected to surpass total demand growth.

Marcio Farid Filho inquired about the financial rationale for the Eldorado wood swap deal, the drivers behind the pulp price increase in Asia, the impact of news about Xiamen, and whether Suzano's production cuts are now a structural policy.

Answer

EVP of Finance & IR, Marcos Moreno Chagas Assumpção, detailed that the deal's 20% IRR stems from optimizing forest age, reducing logistics costs, and CapEx avoidance. He also clarified that production cuts are based on a detailed mill-by-mill analysis of profitability. EVP of Pulp Commercial & Logistics, Leonardo Grimaldi, attributed the price hike to strong Chinese demand and supply constraints, viewing the Xiamen news as having minimal short-term market impact.

Marcio Farid questioned the cash cost curve's impact on producers who sell locally rather than to China and asked about the confidence in production adjustments outside of China. He also asked about the next steps and outlook for getting the U.S. paper packaging operations to breakeven.

Answer

Leonardo Grimaldi, an executive, argued that as a commodity, all markets eventually follow China's pricing, and he expects European spot deals to react accordingly. He stated firmly that Suzano intends to sell all the volume it produces. Fabio Almeida Oliveira, an executive, detailed the path to breakeven for the U.S. packaging business, citing three drivers: cost improvements, a second round of price increases negotiated for H2, and improved operational stability. He expects to reach EBITDA breakeven in the second half of the year.

Marcio Farid Filho from Goldman Sachs sought details on Suzano's capital allocation strategy for downstream M&A, including target geographies, grades, and the definition of a 'transformational' deal. He also asked for confirmation of the company's net debt leverage target.

Answer

Executive João Fernandez de Abreu reiterated that Suzano is not considering any 'transformational' deals, defining them as anything that would impede the company's deleveraging plan. Executive Marcos Assumpcao confirmed the net debt target of approximately $800 per ton of capacity remains, translating to a range of $11.5 billion to $12 billion.

Marcio Farid Filho questioned Suzano's production levels, noting they seemed below full capacity despite high prices, and asked new CEO Beto Abreu about his strategic priorities and how his past experience would be applied at the company.

Answer

Executive Marcelo Bacci clarified that recent production levels reflect a previously announced 4% reduction and that the cancellation of 40 million shares aligns with the current buyback program. CEO Beto Abreu stated his intention is to continue the existing strategy, focusing on pulp market relevance, competitiveness, and downstream growth, while leveraging data and technology for pricing strategies.

Marcio Farid Filho asked about Vale's iron ore product mix strategy in light of changing market premiums and new supply, and questioned if the robust Q2 profitability in the base metals division represents a new sustainable level.

Answer

Rogério Nogueira, EVP of Commercial & Development, explained that Vale is focusing on value by dynamically adjusting its product portfolio, such as introducing a mid-grade Carajás ore, to optimize contribution margins. Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals Ltd, attributed the strong performance to the 'Project Catalyst' efficiency program, which is delivering significant cost savings, fixed cost dilution from higher volumes, and productivity gains across both nickel and copper assets.

Marcio Farid Filho requested an update on Vale's institutional relationship with the Brazilian government six months into the new CEO's tenure. He also asked about the strategy for the new buyback program, particularly how it balances strong cash flow against significant expected cash disbursements for reparations.

Answer

Executive Gustavo Duarte Pimenta reported finding strong support and alignment with the government on investments that benefit both Brazil and Vale, such as in critical minerals. Executive Marcelo Bacci stated that the buyback program will be executed based on cash flow generation while maintaining the expanded net debt target around $15 billion, but the specific timing and pace will remain flexible.

Marcio Farid Filho of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. asked about the long-term outlook for high-grade iron ore premiums, considering new supply like Simandou, and inquired about the cost momentum for the base metals division.

Answer

Executive Marcello Spinelli reiterated a strong belief in market segmentation, with a persistent gap in demand for high-grade and direct reduction products, positioning Vale's Mega Hub strategy favorably. Vale Base Metals Chairman Mark Cutifani stated that nickel cost trends should improve with higher mine volumes at Sudbury and Voisey's Bay, while copper costs depend on improving grades and productivity at Salobo.

Marcio Faridji of Goldman Sachs questioned the market dynamics for long steel and the status of conversations with the government on trade protection. He also pressed for clarity on whether the Usiminas stake sale indicates a more aggressive asset disposal strategy.

Answer

Head of Steel Martinez explained that CSN reduced long steel sales by 12% in Q2 due to unreasonably low market prices but plans an 8-10% price increase. Chairman Benjamin Steinbruck stated that a "presidential action" is needed to protect the industry, as talks with ministries have not yielded results. On asset sales, Steinbruck confirmed deleveraging is a top priority but will be pursued in an "intelligent and rational way" at the right time with the right partners.

Marcio Farid Filho questioned the feasibility and timeline for CSN to reach its long-term leverage target of 1x-2x EBITDA. He also asked for an update on the company's efforts to lobby for more effective government measures to protect the domestic steel industry.

Answer

Executive Luis Martinez stated that government import measures have the 'wrong intensity' and that Brazil has become an outlet for Chinese steel, with little change in the competitive landscape. Executive Director Antonio Marco Rabello acknowledged the 1x-2x leverage target remains a goal but conceded the timeline is difficult to set due to volatility in iron ore prices and the steel market. He confirmed the Usiminas stake remains a future source of liquidity.

Marcio Farid Filho followed up on financial leverage, asking for a realistic timeline to reach the 1-2x EBITDA target, which seems distant from the current level. He also questioned if management's tone on the need for government protection for the steel industry had softened compared to the previous quarter.

Answer

Executive Luis Martinez clarified that his stance on industry competitiveness has not softened, stating that government measures against imports are insufficient and that Brazil remains an 'outlet for China.' Executive Antonio Marco Rabello reiterated the long-term 1-2x leverage goal and the 2.5x year-end 2024 target, acknowledging that the timeline is subject to volatility in iron ore prices and the pace of the steel segment's recovery.

Marcio Farid of Goldman Sachs submitted a written question asking if M&A should be considered off the agenda for CSN until its major CapEx projects are executed and the company has deleveraged, given the recent dividend cut and M&A discipline.

Answer

Antonio Marco Rabello, Executive, affirmed this view, stating that the company's strategic decisions are driven by its commitment to deleveraging. He cited the decision not to pursue a significant, synergistic M&A in 2024 as direct evidence of this discipline. He concluded by stating explicitly that the company 'does not have any material M&A for the year 2025.'

Marcio Farid, in a written question, noted the paradigm shift towards deleveraging, evidenced by dividend cuts and M&A discipline, and asked if M&A is completely off the agenda until CapEx and deleveraging targets are fully executed.

Answer

Antonio Marco Rabello, an executive, affirmed the company's commitment to deleveraging. He cited the decision to halt a significant M&A transaction in 2024 as direct evidence of this financial discipline. He stated that while the company continuously analyzes opportunities, there are no material M&A activities planned for 2025, prioritizing the balance sheet.

Marcio Farid Filho from Goldman Sachs asked about the prioritization of the company's four strategic pillars, questioning if all must be achieved before pursuing next steps like M&A or new partnerships, and specifically if M&A could happen before Tucumã is fully delivered.

Answer

President and CEO Makko DeFilippo stated unequivocally that the company's focus is on its four-step strategy, with achieving commercial production at Tucumã being the critical gateway to the other steps. He emphasized that while the company always evaluates opportunities, M&A is not an immediate focus and would not happen before Tucumã is delivered, given the incredible long-term value presented by their Furnas development asset.

Marcio Farid Filho inquired about the outlook for Gerdau's U.S. operations for the first half of 2025, considering seasonality and new tariffs, and asked how the company would adapt its North American operations. He also questioned the recent drop in long steel prices in Brazil and whether a demand pickup was imminent.

Answer

CEO Gustavo Werneck expressed optimism for the U.S. market, noting a rapid recovery in the order backlog and spreads over the last 30 days. He stated that production capacity, currently at 70% utilization, can be quickly increased to meet demand. CFO Rafael Japur added that shipments from Canada to the U.S. account for 7-8% of North American sales, and the company is working to mitigate potential tariff impacts while focusing on improving the product mix towards higher-margin goods.

Marcio Farid Filho asked about the drivers of Q1 performance, seeking to understand the balance between cost reductions and weak volumes. He also inquired about the volume outlook for the U.S., potential for further profitability gains in Brazil, and the reason for slower-than-guided CapEx execution.

Answer

CEO Gustavo Werneck confirmed the North American market remains solid with a stable backlog and expects margins to hold. For Brazil, he emphasized that investments in mining and Ouro Branco are proceeding, aimed at shifting from exports to higher-value domestic products. CFO Rafael Japur explained the seasonal nature of CapEx, which is typically lower in Q1 due to weather and maintenance schedules, and noted the time lag for cost-cut benefits to appear in results due to inventory carryover.

Marcio Farid Filho questioned the rationale for the dividend reduction, given the company's low leverage and constructive outlook, and asked for Ternium's perspective on risks and opportunities in Mexico following the U.S. election.

Answer

CEO Maximo Vedoya framed the U.S. election outcome as an opportunity to strengthen the North American region, citing alignment between the new U.S. and Mexican administrations on trade policy against Asia. CFO Pablo Brizzio explained the dividend decision was a nominal reduction but represents a significant increase in the payout ratio to around 70% and maintains a high yield, balancing shareholder returns with a major capital expenditure cycle.

Marcio Farid Filho of Goldman Sachs asked about the stronger-than-expected CapEx, whether to anticipate higher spending on Tia Maria in 2024, and the company's confidence in meeting its full-year production guidance. He also followed up on the key drivers for the strong performance in costs after by-products.

Answer

Executive Raul Jacob expressed high confidence in meeting or exceeding the 2024 production guidance, citing strong performance from the new zinc concentrator and improved water availability at Buenavista. He confirmed CapEx for Tia Maria will accelerate in H2 2024, with a $316 million budget for 2025. The favorable cost performance was attributed to higher volumes and prices for by-products like zinc, molybdenum, and silver.