Marco Cristofori

Marco Cristofori asked about the U.S. shale oil industry, specifically how declining rig counts but growing crude output and falling breakevens might impact Tenaris's U.S. volumes. He also inquired about the industry's evolution and the potential for a plateau in H2 2027.

Answer

Paolo Rocca, Chairman and CEO, expressed skepticism about predicting a shale plateau, noting the U.S. industry's continuous ability to surprise with higher output. Guillermo Moreno, President of U.S. Operations, explained that operators have significantly increased efficiency and productivity, drilling more wells with fewer rigs and longer laterals, leading to more production but slightly less OCTG consumption per rig. He anticipates a stable U.S. market for 2026, with a slight reduction in oil activity offset by an increase in gas, and noted that drilled but uncompleted (DUC) well inventories are at a bottom.

Marco Cristofori asked about the U.S. shale oil industry, specifically how declining rig counts but growing crude output and falling breakeven costs might allow for further increases in Tenaris's U.S. volumes. He also inquired about the evolution of the shale industry, given insights suggesting a plateau in the second half of 2027.

Answer

Paolo Rocca, Chairman and CEO, expressed caution about predicting a plateau for U.S. shale, noting past forecasts have been continuously surpassed. Guillermo Moreno, President of U.S. Operations, explained that U.S. operators have significantly increased efficiency and productivity, leading to more production and wells drilled with fewer rigs, thus weakening the correlation between rig count and OCTG consumption. He anticipates a stable U.S. market for 2026, with slight oil activity reduction offset by gas increases, and noted that the inventory of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells has reached a bottom.