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Maria Carolina Carneiro

Research Analyst at Banco Safra S.A.

Maria Carolina Carneiro is an Equity Research Analyst at Banco Safra S.A., specializing in coverage of the Brazilian utilities sector with a focus on listed companies such as Neoenergia S.A. and EDP. She regularly publishes investment recommendations and price targets—such as her Hold recommendation for EDP at R$ 25.30 in October 2022—demonstrating an active role in shaping market perspectives for major energy firms. Carneiro's professional timeline places her at Banco Safra S.A. by at least 2022, where she has become the lead analyst on several sector reports, though prior career details remain undisclosed. Her credentials include recognized expertise in equity research on Brazilian utilities, but no public information confirms securities licenses or FINRA registration.

Maria Carolina Carneiro's questions to EBR leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Maria Carolina Carneiro asked about AXIA Energia's strategy for the recent transmission auction, including synergies and the attractiveness of the awarded lots, and sought elaboration on the capacity reserve auction ordinance and competitive assets.

Answer

Ivan Monteiro, CEO of AXIA Energia, emphasized that predictable cash flow enables auction participation for synergies. Elio Wolff, VP of Strategy and Business Development at AXIA Energia, detailed the transmission auction approach, noting awarded lots (6, 6A, 7A, 7B) offer a positive outlook with mid-to-low teens returns. He also mentioned AXIA Energia's comprehensive portfolio for the capacity auction.

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Question · Q3 2025

Maria Carolina Carneiro asked for more details on AXIA Energia's strategy for the recent transmission auction, including synergies and the attractiveness of the awarded lots. She also inquired about the company's potential participation in the capacity reserve auction, seeking insights into the regulating ordinance and competitive assets.

Answer

Ivan Monteiro, CEO, emphasized the benefit of predictable cash flow for auction participation and capturing synergies. Elio Wolff, VP of Strategy and Business Development, detailed the careful, value-generating approach for transmission auctions, highlighting positive returns (mid to low teens ROI) for awarded lots. He mentioned plans for the March 2026 capacity auction with a comprehensive portfolio of almost 6 gigawatts and the 2031 product as an additional option for hydroelectric power plants.

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Question · Q1 2025

Maria Carolina Carneiro asked about Eletrobrás's priority agenda for 2025 following the agreement with the government and sought an update on the regulatory outlook for capacity auctions.

Answer

Executive Ivan de Souza Monteiro outlined that the company's focus is now on management, investing in its own assets, continuing its divestment program (including the electronuclear plant), and pursuing cost efficiencies to become a sector leader. Executive Rodrigo Nascimento added that the company believes capacity auctions will happen in 2025 and that Eletrobrás is well-positioned to compete with its over 6-gigawatt portfolio.

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Question · Q2 2024

Maria Carolina Carneiro requested an update on the status of negotiations with labor unions regarding the collective bargaining agreement, noting its importance for cost management and its connection to discussions at the higher court of labor.

Answer

José Renato Domingues and Marcelo de Siqueira Freitas explained that negotiations are ongoing. An agreement has been reached with unions representing about 20% of employees, and while discussions at the higher court were paused for July, they are set to resume. Management remains optimistic about signing agreements with the remaining unions.

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Question · Q1 2024

Maria Carolina Carneiro from Banco Safra S.A. asked about the sustainability of attractive energy prices, capital allocation plans amidst thermal plant sales, and the next steps to resolve the delinquency issue with Amazonas Energia.

Answer

Executive Italo de Carvalho Freitas Filho projected a less liquid market and price pressure until the next wet season. On capital allocation, Executive Elio de Meirelles Wolff confirmed the thermal plant sale should conclude in 2024, with the company continuously seeking simplification. Regarding Amazonas Energia, Executive Marcelo de Siqueira Freitas detailed escalating legal actions, while Executive Rodrigo Nascimento discussed regulatory efforts with ANEEL to mitigate exposure and facilitate a change in the distributor's control.

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Maria Carolina Carneiro's questions to ENERGY CO OF PARANA (ELP) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Maria Carolina Carneiro of Safra requested an overview of the 'second wave' of efficiency measures driving cost improvements and asked how public pressure on energy tariffs is affecting Copel's trading policy and default management.

Answer

CEO Daniel Claviero and CFO Felipe Gutierrez explained that cost efficiencies are being driven by procurement reviews, contract unification, digitalization, and process simplification, with a future focus on AI. Regarding tariffs, Mr. Claviero acknowledged it as a concern but noted Copel's adjustments have been moderate. An executive identified as Vilela added that default management (ADA) is well-controlled through a robust collection process, installment plans, and the use of 1.5 million smart meters for remote disconnections, keeping ADA below the tariff coverage.

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Question · Q1 2025

Maria Carolina Carneiro asked for clarification on the implementation timeline for the new dividend policy, specifically regarding its application to 2025 payments and the potential for extraordinary dividends. She also inquired about Copel's strategy for managing the price disconnection between Brazil's South and Northeast energy markets.

Answer

Executive Daniel Slaviero confirmed the new dividend policy is effective immediately and explained that the leverage target range of 2.5x to 3.1x provides flexibility for stable dividend payouts and strategic investments. Executive Rodolfo Lima added that Copel capitalized on high long-term energy prices for contracts from 2026 onwards and strategically used swaps to benefit from the price differential between the South and Southeast regions.

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Question · Q4 2024

Maria Carolina Carneiro asked for an overview of ongoing regulatory discussions aimed at mitigating the negative impact of energy curtailment. Additionally, she inquired if there are other assets in Copel's portfolio, similar to the Baixo Iguaçu divestment, that are being considered for optimization or sale.

Answer

CEO Daniel Slaviero explained that while curtailment is a persistent issue, a potential short-term regulatory fix involves reclassifying availability types, though a broader structural solution is not expected soon. He noted that Copel's integrated model provides significant protection. On asset optimization, Slaviero stated that the most significant simplification steps have been completed. While minor opportunities in minority stakes may exist, the primary focus has shifted to allocating capital to new, value-generating business opportunities within its core segments.

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Maria Carolina Carneiro's questions to COMPANHIA DE SANEAMENTO BASICO DO ESTADO DE SAO PAULO-SABESP (SBS) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Maria Carolina Carneiro asked about alternative solutions for clients whose tariff discounts cannot be removed and sought confirmation of the regulatory timeline, including the May deadline for the RAB appraisal and the year-end tariff review.

Answer

CEO Carlos Piani confirmed the regulatory timeline: the incremental RAB report is due in May, the regulator's audit by September, and the new tariff is applied in January. For discounts, he mentioned the state is reviewing a new policy and SABESP is exploring creative solutions for the few remaining clients.

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