Mark Jordan

Mark Jordan asked for a breakdown of Advance Auto Parts' 1%-2% comparable sales guidance for the year into ticket and transactions, given the 2%-3% same SKU inflation, suggesting potential other ticket impacts or transaction pressure. He also inquired about the cadence of performance throughout the year and any quarter-to-date tailwinds from recent weather events on transactions.

Answer

Ryan Grimsland (EVP and CFO) expected DIY transactions to remain pressured, consistent with 2025 trends, with overall slightly low single-digit transaction growth driven by inflation. He noted that weather categories were positive but offset by negatively impacted categories, making the overall impact fairly neutral. Current Q1 trends are within guidance, and he expects trends to improve as weather normalizes.

Mark Jordan asked for a breakdown of Advance Auto Parts' 1%-2% comparable sales guidance for 2026 into ticket and transactions, considering the 2%-3% same-SKU inflation expectation. He also inquired about the cadence of performance throughout the year, including any tailwinds from recent weather events and quarter-to-date transaction trends.

Answer

Ryan Grimsland, EVP and CFO, indicated that DIY transactions are expected to remain pressured, consistent with 2025 trends, while overall comp growth will be driven by a combination of slightly low single-digit transaction growth and inflation. Regarding weather, Mr. Grimsland noted a fairly neutral impact, with positive performance in weather-related categories offset by negative impacts elsewhere. He stated that current Q1 trends are within guidance, and he expects performance to improve as weather normalizes, acknowledging mixed effects from past storms like Storm Fern.

Mark Jordan asked about the inclusion of non-oil change revenue in same-store sales calculations, its impact on Q1, and the revenue size of the mobile channel business. He also inquired about the pipeline for franchise store openings for the fiscal year.

Answer

Lori Flees, President and CEO of Valvoline, explained that mobile service delivery is a small pilot, contributing around 20 basis points to Q1 comps. Regarding franchise growth, she noted Q1 was light but January saw strong openings, indicating a robust pipeline for the year and confidence in reaching 250 new units by FY27.

Mark Jordan asked about the inclusion of non-oil change revenue in same-store sales calculations, its impact on Q1, and the revenue size of the mobile channel business. He also inquired about the franchise store growth pipeline for the fiscal year.

Answer

Lori Flees, President and CEO, Valvoline, explained that mobile service delivery is a small pilot, contributing around 20 basis points to Q1 comps. Regarding franchise growth, she noted Q1 had 10 net additions but highlighted a robust pipeline, with 9 units opened in January, affirming confidence in reaching 250 new units by FY27.

Mark Jordan asked for details on the composition of the 4%-6% same-store sales guidance, specifically the expected mix between transaction growth and ticket growth, and the performance split between franchise and company-operated stores. He also inquired about current consumer trends, including any signs of deferral in non-oil change services or extended oil change intervals.

Answer

CFO Kevin Willis indicated that Q4 and the full fiscal year showed a balanced contribution from transactions and ticket (approximately one-third transaction, two-thirds ticket), consistent across company and franchise, and this trend is expected to continue in fiscal year 2026. President and CEO Lori Flees emphasized the resilient demand for automotive maintenance, noting no signs of customers trading down or deferring services, an increase in premiumization across all customer types, and a slight shortening of service intervals in fiscal year 2025, which is not expected to continue.

Mark Jordan asked for a breakdown of the 4-6% same-store sales guidance for fiscal 2026, specifically the mix between traffic and ticket growth, and the contribution from franchise versus company-operated stores. He also inquired about current consumer trends, including any signs of deferral in non-oil change services or extended oil change intervals.

Answer

CFO Kevin Willis stated that Q4 and the full year saw a balanced mix of about one-third transaction growth and two-thirds ticket growth, consistent across company and franchise, expecting this mix to remain stable for FY2026. President and CEO Lori Flees noted resilient demand for non-discretionary automotive maintenance, with no trade-downs or deferrals, increased premiumization, and a slight shortening of service intervals in FY2025, which is not expected to continue.

Mark Jordan from Goldman Sachs inquired about the wide range of outcomes implied by the full-year same-store sales guidance for Q4 and requested a breakdown of the ticket growth drivers, specifically NOCR, net pricing, and premiumization.

Answer

CFO J. Kevin Willis clarified that while the math suggests a wide range for Q4 comps, the company is focused on the midpoint of its narrowed guidance. He noted that April and May performed as expected, while June saw a slower start to the summer season. Regarding ticket drivers, Willis confirmed that premiumization, net pricing, and increased NOCR service penetration all contributed to the increase but declined to provide a specific quantitative breakdown.

Mark Jordan asked about the drivers of value creation when Lithia acquires a new dealership, specifically inquiring about factors like instituting best practices, integrating inventory onto the Driveway platform, or consolidating systems, given that Lithia does not buy dealerships based on expected value creation.

Answer

Bryan DeBoer, President and CEO, explained that Lithia achieves a two to three times lift in net profitability post-acquisition. Approximately a quarter of this comes from immediate scale synergies (lower interest rates, better vendor contracts, system consolidation) within the first six months. The other key drivers are used vehicles, where acquired stores shift from selling mostly like-model used cars to a 60/40 split of conquest vehicles, and after-sales, by focusing on non-OEM parts and post-warranty service to retain customers affordably. He also noted that increased eyeballs on inventory through digital platforms like Driveway.com improve price to market.

Mark Jordan of Goldman Sachs questioned the aftersales segment's performance, asking how much of the same-store sales growth was attributable to lapping last year's CDK outage. He also asked if tariff-related inflation impacted results and was factored into the full-year outlook.

Answer

President & CEO Bryan DeBoer estimated that just over 50% of the aftersales same-store sales growth was due to the easy comparison from the prior year's CDK outage, with the rest driven by outperformance in customer pay and warranty work. He stated that tariff impacts were minimal in the quarter, as evidenced by higher labor mix driving margin expansion.

Mark Jordan, on for Kate McShane, asked about the potential impact of tariffs on imported parts on the aftersales business margins and whether the company anticipates any deferred maintenance from customers. He also inquired if the $2 billion to $4 billion acquired revenue target for the year remains intact.

Answer

President and CEO Bryan DeBoer stated that the impact on the aftersales business from tariffs is expected to be minimal, as maintenance is non-discretionary and Lithia offers affordable options. Regarding capital allocation, DeBoer clarified that acquired revenue for the year would likely be closer to $2 billion due to a near-term focus on opportunistic share repurchases, but the $2 billion to $4 billion target remains for future years.

Mark Jordan asked about the magnitude of inflationary cost increases for salaries, wages, and rent, and what actions Genuine Parts Company is taking to offset these headwinds. He also inquired about any signs of changing customer behavior within the U.S. NAPA retail business.

Answer

Executive Vice President and CFO Bert Nappier indicated aggregate inflation around 3%, with rent inflation slightly higher than wages (3-5%) due to lease renewals. He detailed GPC's offsetting actions, including productivity and operational efficiencies, which led to flat SG&A as a percentage of revenue in Q3, a significant improvement from Q1 and Q2. He noted no material changes in customer behavior in the U.S. NAPA retail business, which remains pressured but has shown sequential improvement.

Mark Jordan asked about the magnitude of inflationary cost increases in salaries, wages, and rent, and what actions Genuine Parts Company is taking to offset these headwinds. He also inquired about any signs of changing customer behavior within the U.S. NAPA retail business.

Answer

Bert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, stated that aggregate inflation is in the 3% range, with rent inflation slightly higher than wages (3-5%) due to lease renewals. He explained that GPC is offsetting these headwinds by working smarter, investing in productivity, and operational efficiencies, which resulted in flat SG&A as a percentage of revenue in Q3 and expected leverage in Q4. Regarding the U.S. NAPA retail business, Bert Nappier noted that it remains pressured and discretionary, with no material changes in customer behavior or trading down, despite sequential improvement.

Mark Jordan of Goldman Sachs inquired about the slower pace of franchise unit growth for Take 5 year-to-date and asked how comps for the segment progressed through the quarter.

Answer

EVP & CFO Mike Diamond explained that the unit growth mix is typical, with corporate stores opening earlier in the year and franchise openings weighted to the second half, expecting a roughly 50/50 mix for the full year. He described Q2 comps as 'fairly consistent,' with minor weather impacts, and reiterated that the business is expected to moderate as it grows over a larger base.

Mark Jordan, on behalf of Kate McShane, asked about the monthly performance trend for Take 5's same-store sales during Q1 and any observable trends quarter-to-date.

Answer

EVP and CFO Michael Diamond declined to provide intra-quarter specifics but noted that Q1's performance was broadly consistent and that the company's reiterated full-year outlook reflects results through April. He repeated that the expectation for moderation is based on the challenge of growing over an increasingly large base of stores.

Mark Jordan, on behalf of Kate McShane from Goldman Sachs, questioned the lower-than-expected share repurchase volume, the future capital allocation strategy, and whether the company would accelerate purchases ahead of potential tariffs.

Answer

CFO Jamere Jackson reaffirmed the company's capital allocation policy, targeting a 2.5x leverage ratio and returning cash to shareholders, with no change in strategy. Executive Philip Daniele confirmed that the merchandising team is evaluating opportunities to accelerate purchases where it makes sense, given their low-turning inventory.