Mark Newman

Mark Newman sought clarity on the proportion of Sandisk's shorter-term versus longer-term contracts, especially given the current significant inflection in pricing, and how this impacts the benefits of long-term agreements. He also requested updates on the High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) roadmap and potential timelines for its market introduction.

Answer

EVP and CFO Luis Visoso stated that Sandisk currently has very few volume and price commitments extending beyond a single quarter, but strategic customers are initiating conversations for longer-term agreements. Chairman and CEO David Goeckeler reiterated the HBF timeline announced last quarter: memory in late 2026 and the controller in 2027. He noted ongoing customer conversations for inference applications in both edge and cloud, expressing optimism about the technology and its use cases.

Mark Newman sought deeper clarity on SanDisk's supply-demand dynamics, specifically the proportion of shorter-term versus longer-term contracts and how pricing inflects given these contract structures. He also requested an update on the High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) roadmap and potential timelines.

Answer

EVP and CFO Luis Visoso stated that SanDisk currently has very few volume and price commitments extending beyond a quarter, but strategic customers are now proactively seeking longer-term supply assurances. Chairman and CEO David Goeckeler confirmed that the HBF timeline remains on track, with memory expected in late 2026 and controllers in 2027. He noted ongoing customer conversations for HBF use cases in both edge and cloud, expressing optimism about the technology and its applications.

Mark Newman sought clarification on the historical context of the $13 billion in new orders, asking how this figure compares to previous quarters' backlogs, and inquired about the company's long-term gross margin target, specifically if the previously mentioned 14%-17% range is still intact or has been revised due to market changes.

Answer

David Weigand, CFO, stated that it is not the company's practice to discuss backlog generally, but the $13 billion in new orders was mentioned due to its impact on current and December quarters. Regarding gross margins, David Weigand acknowledged the previous 14%-17% guide from 2021 but noted that the market has changed, and while they aim for double digits, they will provide clearer guidance when possible. Charles Liang, Founder, President, and CEO, added that double-digit gross margins are still in their plan, especially with a focus on DCBBS and enterprise accounts, though it might take longer while servicing large CSPs.

Mark Newman from Bernstein sought more color on the $13 billion in new orders, asking for historical context on backlog size and how this figure compares to previous quarters. He also inquired about Super Micro's long-term gross margin target, specifically if the previously mentioned 15%-16% range is still intact but pushed out, or if it's no longer a viable target given current market dynamics.

Answer

David Weigand, CFO, stated that it is Super Micro's practice not to discuss backlog generally, but the $13 billion in new orders and design wins were mentioned due to their impact on current and upcoming quarters. Regarding gross margins, Mr. Weigand acknowledged the 2021 guide of 14%-17% but noted that the market has changed significantly with new dynamic platforms. He indicated that the company would provide clearer margin guidance when possible, expressing a desire to return to double-digit margins. Charles Liang, Founder, President, and CEO, added that achieving double-digit gross margins would be 'easy' if focusing solely on DCBBS and enterprise accounts, but the company is also keen to support large-scale CSPs. He confirmed that double-digit gross margins are still in the plan, though it may take a little longer.

Mark Newman asked about Seagate's supply-demand balance, plans for adding capacity, potential supply chain bottlenecks, and the adoption trajectory of HAMR technology, including any upside or downside to previous projections.

Answer

Dave Mosley, Chair and CEO, explained that Seagate's strategy for adding capacity focuses on increasing exabyte capacity through product transitions to higher-capacity HAMR drives, rather than adding unit capacity. Gianluca Romano, CFO, added that five global CSPs are now qualified on HAMR, contributing to better-than-expected revenue and profitability, and the HAMR ramp continues as planned.

Mark Newman asked about Seagate's plans to add capacity given tight supply and the adoption of HAMR technology, including any upside or downside to previous HAMR rollout projections.

Answer

Seagate's Chair and CEO, Dave Mosley, explained that capacity additions focus on product transitions to higher exabyte drives rather than unit capacity. CFO Gianluca Romano added that the qualification of five major cloud customers on HAMR is accelerating profitability, exceeding initial expectations.

Mark Newman requested clarity on the breakdown between Software and Consulting for IBM's growing AI book of business, noting it was previously around 80/20. He also asked for an explanation regarding Consulting's book-to-bill ratio being below one for two consecutive quarters, despite a trailing 12-month ratio above one, and why this shouldn't be a concern, especially with 30% of signings being longer-duration AI projects.

Answer

Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, addressed the Consulting book-to-bill, noting that while signings were down 5% due to lower large deal renewal volume, the quality of signings improved significantly with double-digit net new business penetration and over 300 new clients year-to-date. He highlighted that GenAI, comprising 22% of backlog, 30% of signings, and 12% of revenue, is inflecting growth, leading to confidence in Q4 Consulting growth and a return to market growth levels in 2026. Regarding the AI book of business breakdown, Mr. Kavanaugh stated that of the over $9.5 billion total, over $7.5 billion is in Consulting and almost $2 billion in Software, remaining 'pretty damn close to that 20/80 overall.' He also provided an update on Red Hat's performance, noting 12% growth in the quarter, with OpenShift bookings up nearly 40% and Ansible bookings up 20%, despite headwinds from consumption-based services and RHEL reverting to its model.

Mark Newman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Bernstein, requested a specific breakdown of IBM's $9.5 billion AI book of business between software and consulting, noting a previous 80-20 split. He also expressed concern about consulting's book-to-bill ratio being below one for two consecutive quarters, asking for an explanation and reassurance, especially given that AI signings, which are believed to be longer duration, constitute around 30% of signings.

Answer

Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, clarified that the generative AI book of business is over $9.5 billion, with over $7.5 billion in consulting and almost $2 billion in software, maintaining a composition close to the 80/20 split. Regarding consulting, Kavanaugh acknowledged that signings were down 5% for the quarter, driven by lower large deal renewal volume, which he argued has less revenue realization. He emphasized the "quality of signings," noting tremendous improvement in net new business penetration (double-digit year-over-year) and over 300 new clients year-to-date. He highlighted that the backlog of $31 billion is healthy, growing 4%, with the best erosion in years, indicating strong client commitment. Kavanaugh stated that GenAI, constituting over 22% of backlog, 30% of signings, and 12% of revenue, is inflecting growth, leading to confidence in consulting growth in Q4 and returning to market levels in 2026. He also provided detailed insights into Red Hat's performance, noting 12% growth, with OpenShift bookings up nearly 40% and ARR up mid-30s, and Ansible bookings up 20%, expecting solid double-digit growth for Red Hat in Q4 and acceleration into 2026.