Martin Englert

Martin Englert questioned the factors contributing to compressed galvanized spreads and what might lead to their normalization, the impact of prime scrap spreads on margins, and outlined the top transformation initiatives for calendar year 2026, including any quantifiable savings from back-office efforts.

Answer

Geoff Gilmore, President and CEO, cited decreased construction demand and increased competition for compressed galvanized spreads, expecting normalization and expansion in Q2 calendar year due to Section 232 tariffs and anti-dumping measures. He confirmed no material impact from scrap spreads. For 2026, top initiatives include back-office transformation with AI integration and Sitem integration, committing to quantify savings and hours saved on the next call.

Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners questioned the factors contributing to compressed galvanized spreads and what might lead to their normalization. He also asked if prime scrap spreads relative to obsolete scrap had negatively impacted the business recently, and sought details on Worthington Steel's top transformation initiatives for calendar year 2026, including any quantifiable annualized savings from back office transformation efforts.

Answer

Geoff Gilmore, President and CEO, identified decreased demand, particularly in construction, as the primary cause of compressed galvanized spreads, leading to increased competition. He expressed optimism for margin expansion and normalization by calendar Q2, citing the impact of 232 tariffs and anti-dumping measures limiting imports, while acknowledging new U.S. capacity sets a ceiling. Gilmore stated that prime scrap spreads had no material impact on margins. For 2026 transformation, he highlighted continued focus on back office automation and AI integration, along with doubling down on Tempel (CDEM) integration to leverage their world-class practices. Gilmore committed to providing a scorecard with quantified savings and hours saved from transformation and AI initiatives on the next earnings call.

Martin Englert inquired about the factors contributing to the 22% year-over-year decline in toll volumes, specifically differentiating between the impact of the Worthington Samuel Coil Processing facility closure and broader market conditions. He also asked about the expected future mix of direct versus toll volumes, the fiscal 2Q volume outlook including seasonal factors, and any recent changes observed in upstream mill order books and lead times.

Answer

Geoff Gilmore, CEO, President & Director, explained that approximately half of the toll volume reduction was due to slower market conditions, with the majority of the remainder attributed to the Worthington Samuel Coil Processing shutdown. He also noted minor impacts from customer program changes. Mr. Gilmore projected future direct sale volume to be in the 60%-65% range, with toll volume at 35%-40%. For fiscal 2Q, he anticipated normal seasonality, with volumes typically 3-4% below Q1, and no significant motivators for increased demand. He confirmed no changes in upstream mill order books or lead times.

Martin Englert inquired about the specific drivers behind the 22% year-over-year decline in toll processing volumes, the expected future mix of direct versus toll processing volumes, expected volume trends for fiscal Q2 including seasonal factors, and any recent changes observed in upstream mill order books and lead times.

Answer

CFO Tim Adams attributed half of the toll volume reduction to softer market conditions and the majority of the remainder to the Worthington Samuel Coil Processing facility shutdown, with minor impacts from customer program shifts. He projected that direct sale volume would likely remain in the 60%-65% range, with toll processing volumes settling between 35%-40%. Tim Adams explained that normal seasonality suggests Q2 volumes are typically 3-4% below Q1 due to holidays and anticipated markets would continue without significant demand increases until greater clarity on tariffs and market uncertainty emerges. President and CEO Geoff Gilmore stated that no changes had been observed in upstream mill order books or lead times at that point.

Martin Englert inquired about the breakdown of the 22% year-over-year toll volume decline, specifically how much was attributable to the Worthington Samuel closure versus broader market conditions. He also asked about expectations for direct volumes to remain above 60%, the outlook for fiscal 2Q volumes considering seasonality, and any recent changes in upstream mill order books and lead times.

Answer

Geoff Gilmore, President and CEO, attributed half of the toll volume reduction to softer market conditions and the majority of the remainder to the Worthington Samuel coil processing shutdown, with minor impacts from customer program changes. Tim Adams, VP and CFO, projected direct sales volume to stabilize in the 60%-65% range, with toll at 35%-40%. Adams also anticipated normal seasonality for fiscal 2Q and 3Q, with volumes typically 3-4% below Q1, and no major demand catalysts. Gilmore confirmed no changes in upstream mill order books or lead times.

Martin Englert inquired about the impact of recent tariff policies, the cause of the quarterly loss at the TWB joint venture, and the expected timeline for underlying unit EBITDA to normalize. He also asked for details on the fixed cost impact from lower volumes and the performance of the Serviacero joint venture.

Answer

CEO Geoff Gilmore stated that tariffs would have very little impact on the business due to their localized purchasing strategy, with the main effect being a temporary jump in steel prices. CFO Tim Adams clarified the TWB loss was due to one-off charges, including an R&D write-off and an early retirement program, not inventory holding issues. Adams noted that EBITDA normalization is tied to market demand uncertainty but expressed cautious optimism for a return to more normal run rates by the end of the calendar year. He attributed Serviacero's performance to demand compression, peso exchange rate movements, and minor inventory holding losses.

Martin Englert of Seaport Research Partners inquired about the industries of the customers associated with the bad debt expense and reserve increase, the potential business impact of a new U.S. administration and trade tariffs, and whether management is seeing any 'green shoots' or early signs of improving activity in its end markets.

Answer

President and CEO Geoffrey Gilmore clarified the reserve increase was for a scrap dealer and the bankruptcy was in the heavy truck industry, stating both were customer-specific issues, not signs of broader industry weakness. Regarding potential tariffs, Gilmore expressed little concern, citing the company's local sourcing model and historical ability to navigate policy changes. VP and CFO Timothy Adams provided an outlook, expecting a stable auto market, positive construction trends, challenges in agriculture, and a late-year pickup in heavy truck. Gilmore added that auto recovery could accelerate with lower interest rates and pointed to strong November vehicle sales as a positive data point, but does not anticipate a significant demand pull-forward from customers ahead of potential tariffs.

Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners inquired about the dynamics in the automotive market, including slower new model ramp-ups, the shift from direct sales to tolling, and whether underlying EBITDA has normalized. He also asked about demand and availability for galvanized products and the potential impact of trade cases.

Answer

CEO Geoff Gilmore and COO Jeffrey Klingler attributed the automotive volume dip to model changeover delays, a customer's commercial strategy reset, and a tough comparison to the prior year's strike-related pull-ahead. Gilmore also explained the shift to tolling was driven by customer preference in galvanizing and tailor-welded blanks. CFO Tim Adams confirmed that Q1's underlying EBITDA is more representative of a normalized mix. Regarding galvanized products, Gilmore noted stable demand and that the company has open capacity to capture potential new volume from trade cases.

Martin Englert asked about the extent to which non-residential construction activity is tied to AI, data centers, and semiconductor buildouts, inquired about any potential risks to Reliance's programs or defense spending if a government shutdown continues, and questioned if Reliance is being impacted by the aluminum supply disruption in New York State.

Answer

Karla Lewis, President and CEO, stated that while Reliance businesses are significantly touching the data center trend across various products and services, it's difficult to quantify specifically due to diversification, but it's a positive and growing trend. She confirmed no direct impact or warnings from a government shutdown on Reliance's programs or defense spending to date. Regarding the New York State aluminum supply disruption, Karla Lewis acknowledged it created market disruption and that Reliance is actively collaborating with mill suppliers and end-users to mitigate impacts through storage, processing, and sourcing, but it's not expected to materially impact Reliance's profitability due to alternative demand for tolling operations.

Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners asked about the extent to which non-residential construction activity is tied to AI, data centers, and semiconductor buildouts. He also inquired if an extended government shutdown would pose any risk to Reliance Inc.'s defense spending programs.

Answer

Karla Lewis, CEO and President, explained that it's difficult to quantify the exact impact of data center trends due to Reliance Inc.'s diversification, but almost every business unit is touching this trend positively through various products and services. She noted that the company is not aware of any direct impact or warnings from an extended government shutdown on their solid defense programs.

Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners inquired about the Q3 2025 guidance, asking if the expected pressure on FIFO gross margin implies sequential weakness or a continuation of Q2 levels. He also sought clarification on the conservative tone of the guidance, customer feedback regarding the tariff environment, and the expected duration of the inventory overhang in the commercial aerospace supply chain.

Answer

President and CEO Karla Lewis clarified that the Q3 guidance reflects normal seasonal demand weakness but is more conservative on gross profit margin due to Q2's unique dynamics, where tariff uncertainty compressed margins despite price increases. She stated this pressure is likely temporary and expressed confidence once trade issues are resolved. Lewis also highlighted continued strength in non-residential construction, driven by data centers, schools, and airports. Regarding aerospace, she confirmed an inventory overhang and anticipates activity will increase once Boeing's higher build rates flow through the supply chain.

Martin Englert asked about Reliance's exposure to import tariffs within its Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) and Capital Expenditures (CapEx), the long-term influence of tariffs on CapEx strategy, customer conversations around reshoring, and any observed red flags in demand or supply chains.

Answer

Executive Karla Lewis explained that with over 95% of metal sourced domestically, direct COGS exposure to tariffs is very limited. For CapEx, a small portion of specialized equipment is imported, and the company is actively working with suppliers to mitigate tariff impacts. Lewis stated that while tariffs are a factor, the primary driver for CapEx remains supporting customer needs, so no major strategic shift is expected. She also confirmed an increase in customer conversations about reshoring and noted that despite general market uncertainty, customer confidence in Reliance's supply capabilities remains strong.

Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners asked about the drivers of recent demand activity, questioning whether it was due to seasonal gains, a pull-forward ahead of tariffs, or a genuine cyclical recovery. He also inquired about which end markets might show momentum in 2025 and the potential impacts of trade policy on Reliance's business and the broader supply environment.

Answer

Karla Lewis, an executive, stated that Reliance's volumes were steady through 2024, outperforming the industry, and that the company anticipates continued momentum in 2025, particularly in general manufacturing, infrastructure, data centers, and the electrical grid. Executive Stephen Koch added that January activity was strong and acknowledged some customer pull-forward due to potential tariffs. Regarding policy, Karla Lewis noted that historically, tariffs have led to higher domestic prices, which has been a positive for Reliance.

Inquired about the outlook for the second half of the year following the withdrawal of guidance, the risk of negative EBITDA, and the impact of US tariffs on the supply chain and rare earth exposure.

Answer

The company cited extreme market uncertainty from Chinese imports and pending trade decisions as the reason for withdrawing guidance and being unable to provide a forecast. They stated Becancour is not currently impacted by tariffs and that they have managed supply chain risks for critical materials like rare earths (bismuth, germanium, tellurium), for which they are either back-integrated or have found solutions.

Asked if the low end of the annual guidance is achievable at current spot prices, inquired about volume assumptions for the guidance, and requested details on the French energy credit for 2024 and the amount factored in for 2025.

Answer

Executives confirmed the low end of guidance is achievable even at current prices due to expected mix improvements and volume recovery in H2. Full-year volumes are assumed to be similar to 2024. The 2024 French energy credit was detailed ($61M total, $24M P&L impact in Q4), and it was stated that the 2025 credit will be lower, with a better contract expected for 2026.

Martin Englert asked for clarification on the 2025 guidance, questioning if the $100 million low end is achievable at current spot prices and what volume assumptions are included. He also requested a breakdown of the French energy credit recognized in 2024 and the amount factored into the 2025 outlook.

Answer

CEO Marco Levi confirmed the low end of the guidance is achievable even with current conditions, citing expected improvements in product mix and volume recovery in the second half of the year, with total 2025 volumes projected to be similar to 2024. Chief Financial Officer Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola detailed the 2024 French energy credit, noting a total of $61 million for the year with a $24 million P&L impact in Q4. She added that the 2025 credit will be lower.

Martin Englert of Seaport Research Partners asked for clarification on the margin compression and fixed cost absorption issues in the silicon-based alloy segment. He also sought details on the new U.S. ferrosilicon import tariffs, their expected market impact, and specifics regarding new contracts in the U.S. and the Middle East.

Answer

CEO Marco Levi explained that margin compression in European silicon-based alloys is due to weak demand and a flood of low-priced imports, driving prices to a four-year low. This, combined with flat U.S. demand, led to production cuts and higher unabsorbed fixed costs. CFO Beatriz García-Cos added this segment benefited less from the French energy agreement. Regarding tariffs, Levi noted the duties on Russian imports were significant and final, while decisions on Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia are pending. He confirmed two new U.S. contracts and a new silicon metal deal in the Middle East tied to a 100,000-ton polysilicon plant.

Martin Englert of Seaport Research Partners questioned the margin compression and fixed cost absorption issues in the silicon-based alloys segment. He also sought details on the new U.S. ferrosilicon tariffs, their expected market impact, and specifics on new contracts in both the U.S. and the Middle East.

Answer

CEO Marco Levi attributed the silicon-based alloy margin compression to weak demand and significant import pressure in Europe, leading to reduced production and poor fixed cost absorption. He noted the new U.S. tariffs on Russian ferrosilicon are final and significant, with decisions pending for other countries. He confirmed two new U.S. contracts and a new silicon metal agreement with a major Middle Eastern solar-related customer. CFO Beatriz García-Cos added that the French energy benefit did not significantly impact the silicon-based alloys segment, contributing to its weaker performance.

Martin Englert of Seaport Research Partners asked for confirmation on expiring coke contract details, the cost savings from using internal coke, whether the company is winning new appliance or auto business in Mexico due to Section 232 duties, and the contract structures for any new Mexico business.

Answer

CEO Lourenco Goncalves confirmed the coke contract details and stated the cost benefit of internal coke is 'north of $100' per ton. He explained that while Cliffs is supplying some plants in Mexico that can no longer use transshipped steel, the larger trend is appliance and auto production returning to the U.S. He noted that contract structures for Mexico sales are very comparable to U.S. contracts.

Martin Englert asked about Cleveland-Cliffs' strategy for navigating potential new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the impact on the recently acquired Stelco asset, and how tariffs would be reported. He also inquired about January fixed-contract price resets and updated ASP sensitivities.

Answer

CEO Lourenco Goncalves stated that tariffs are broadly beneficial and will far outweigh any minor negative impact on Stelco, whose best year was 2018 when tariffs were in place. He confirmed tariffs would be included in reported results as usual. He noted Stelco is primarily spot-based, and negotiations for other fixed contracts are going 'extremely well' as customers return to Cliffs for quality and reliability.

Martin Englert asked about the underlying assumptions for raw material costs in the Q1 outlook and Nucor's view on February ferrous scrap price movements. He also asked which downstream products were expected to see sequential volume gains in Q1.

Answer

CEO Leon Topalian suggested that scrap pricing might see a slight increase on stronger demand before moderating in the coming months. Executive John Hollatz identified the joist and deck business as having the largest backlog increase, while other downstream businesses were expected to have volumes similar to the previous quarter, accounting for seasonality.

Martin Englert inquired about the drivers behind the expected decrease in Q4 steel conversion costs despite lower volumes, and asked about Nucor's coating capabilities and strategy for lighter gauge markets following the recent trade case filing.

Answer

Executive Dave Sumoski explained that while a major drop isn't expected in Q4, conversion costs will improve as greenfield projects ramp up, increasing utilization and reducing start-up expenses. CEO Leon Topalian and executive Noah Hanners detailed the strategy to expand coated products to 35-40% of the mix, moving up the value chain to meet growing demand for value-added products and serve evolving regional needs with new capabilities in thinner gauge and higher strength steel.

Martin Englert of Seaport Research Partners inquired about the staffing for the new aluminum project and the current state of the labor market, as well as recent pricing trends in the steel fabrication backlog.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett confirmed that the aluminum project's management team is fully staffed with a solid blend of industry veterans and internal leaders, noting the labor market in Columbus is more favorable than what was experienced in Sinton. CFO Theresa Wagler addressed fabrication, stating that while normal seasonality is expected in Q4, she anticipates price appreciation in 2025 driven by moderating interest rates and public funding.