Matt Roberts

Matt Roberts asked about the first quarter guidance, including volume trends by region, and any impacts from U.S. weather on facility outages, natural gas, or customer volumes.

Answer

CEO Oliver Graham explained that North America had a good start despite January weather impacts in the South, with February and March tracking well amidst metal supply chain challenges. Brazil's market started strong, tracking ahead of industry growth. Europe is in line with forecasts, with growth expected to be second-half weighted. He also noted no negative signs from higher aluminum costs. Regarding European capacity, Mr. Graham detailed plans to add capacity in Spain and the U.K. over the next two to three years, with a moderate increase in capital expenditure, to address the tight market and support customer growth in specific can sizes.

Matt Roberts asked about the Q1 2026 guidance, specifically inquiring about volume trends by region, the impact of U.S. weather on facility outages or natural gas, and customer volumes. He also asked for additional color on the timing, startup costs, and CapEx for new European capacity in Spain and the UK, and how this informs the supply-demand model.

Answer

CEO Oliver Graham detailed positive Q1 trends, noting strong North America performance despite January weather impacts and metal supply challenges, robust energy category growth, and good scanner trends. Brazil started strong with industry growth and AMP tracking ahead. Europe is in line with forecasts, with growth expected to be second-half weighted. He also addressed European capacity, highlighting a very tight market with high utilization, specific size shortages, and a constructive industry backdrop. New lines in Spain and the UK are planned over 2-3 years with a moderate CapEx increase (around 10%).

Matt Roberts questioned the reasons behind the projected 'transition year' for North America's 2026 growth, especially given innovation in the energy portfolio. He also asked if Europe's volume outlook had changed the timing for potential capacity additions, particularly in Southern Europe, and about 2026 CapEx.

Answer

CEO Oliver Graham explained that 2026 softness in North America was due to contract resets and specific footprint situations, where customers moved to closer plants. He affirmed no change to Europe's capacity timing, noting the market remains tight, especially for certain sizes, and that new capacity would be built with flexibility.

Matt Roberts inquired about the reasons behind the projected softer North America growth in 2026, described as a 'transition year,' despite innovation in the energy portfolio. He also asked for an update on potential capacity additions in Europe, specifically regarding timing, volume outlook, and any implications for 2026 CapEx.

Answer

Oliver Graham (CEO) explained that North America's softer 2026 outlook is due to contract resets and specific footprint situations, such as changes in customer filling locations and competitor plant proximity, but anticipates good growth in 2027. For Europe, he confirmed the market remains tight, especially for certain sizes, and there's no change to the timing of needing new capacity, with projects planned for Q4/Q1 to address specialty size constraints.

Matt Roberts asked about the level of share buybacks assumed in Crown Holdings' 2026 guidance and the company's preference between M&A and share repurchases, given strong free cash flow. He also inquired about Crown's succession planning and leadership stability, contrasting it with recent management changes observed in other packaging companies.

Answer

Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, stated that the 2026 guidance assumes approximately $650 million in share buybacks, after accounting for dividends. Tim Donahue, Chairman, President and CEO, indicated that Crown does not see M&A opportunities in packaging that would meaningfully improve the company, making share buybacks the best use of cash. Donahue emphasized the importance of stability at Crown, noting he is only the fourth CEO in 70 years, and highlighted the presence of highly trained internal candidates for future leadership.

Matt Roberts asked about the level of share buybacks assumed in Crown Holdings' 2026 guidance, and the company's preference between M&A and buybacks, particularly if transformational M&A opportunities were to arise. He also inquired about Crown's approach to succession planning, contrasting it with recent abrupt management changes observed among peers in the packaging industry.

Answer

Kevin Clothier, SVP and CFO, stated that with $900 million in cash flow and approximately $200 million-$250 million in dividends, Crown has assumed $650 million in stock buybacks for 2026, allowing for opportunistic purchases. Tim Donahue, Chairman, President and CEO, indicated that Crown does not see M&A opportunities in packaging that would meaningfully improve the company, thus share buybacks are considered the best use of cash. On succession planning, he highlighted Crown's organizational stability, noting he is only the fourth CEO in 70 years, and affirmed that there are highly trained and experienced internal candidates prepared to lead the organization when the board deems it appropriate.

Matt Roberts questioned the 2026 outlook, including expectations for inventory build in Q4, and whether the company plans to lean into new innovation areas or diversify away from competitive pockets. He also asked about the broadness of Continental European growth and the impact of tourism seasonality. Finally, he inquired about plans for 2026 debt maturities and the interest expense outlook.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Donahue expressed no plans to diversify away from any segments, but highlighted concerns about higher delivered aluminum prices and potential inflationary impacts on North American demand. He confirmed broad-based growth in Continental Europe and noted tourism's seasonal impact (May-September). SVP and CFO Kevin Clothier stated that cash on the balance sheet would cover 2026 debt maturities, with interest expense expected to be largely in line with 2025.

Matt Roberts asked about inventory build expectations for Q4 2025, areas of the portfolio Crown Holdings might lean into or diversify away from in 2026 due to innovation or competition, and whether the strong European volume trend was broad-based across Continental Europe or specific to Southern Europe. He also inquired about the impact of expanded tourism season on European seasonality and plans for addressing 2026 debt maturities.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Donahue expressed no intention to lean away from any part of the portfolio, but highlighted mindfulness of inflation, particularly from higher delivered aluminum prices, and its potential impact on consumers and demand in North America. He confirmed that the strong European growth was broad-based across their Continental European portfolio and that tourism's impact is primarily seasonal from May to September, not extending significantly into October. SVP and CFO Kevin Clothier stated that cash on the balance sheet is sufficient to settle 2026 notes, and interest expense for next year is expected to be largely in line with this year.

Matt Roberts asked about the return of compliance rollouts in general retail after pauses in 2025, and the status of logistics automation deployment and new or expanding pilots.

Answer

Deon Stander, President and CEO, indicated that general retail compliance pauses, caused by tariff impacts and supply chain issues, should return as these issues resolve. For logistics, the major customer is fully automated in last-mile fulfillment centers, with discussions ongoing for international expansion and first-mile opportunities. Other logistics pilots are expanding in scope, covering more fulfillment centers and new use cases like dangerous goods.

Matt Roberts of Raymond James Financial asked about the strategy for free cash flow and share repurchases for the remainder of 2025, noting the stock's valuation. He also questioned at what point the company might pivot to M&A to drive growth if Intelligent Label rollouts continue to be slower than expected.

Answer

SVP & CFO Greg Lovins affirmed the continuation of their disciplined capital allocation strategy, including share buybacks, and stated the balance sheet has ample capacity for organic investments, dividends, and M&A. He noted they are actively pursuing M&A across all high-value categories. President & CEO Deon Stander added that the current leverage ratio of 2.3x provides flexibility and that the M&A pipeline remains robust.

Matt Roberts of Raymond James Financial questioned the capital allocation strategy, focusing on the high level of share repurchases, the 2025 free cash flow outlook, and at what point the company might pivot to M&A for growth if Intelligent Labels (IL) rollouts remain slow.

Answer

SVP & CFO Greg Lovins reiterated the company's disciplined capital allocation strategy, confirming that share buybacks continued in Q2. He emphasized the balance sheet provides capacity for organic investment, dividends, buybacks, and M&A. President & CEO Deon Stander added that with a leverage ratio of 2.3, the company has the flexibility to pursue strategic M&A opportunities from its robust pipeline when they align with strategy and market conditions are favorable.

Matt Roberts from Raymond James Financial inquired about the company's strategy for free cash flow and share repurchases, given the near-record buyback levels. He also asked at what point the company might pivot to inorganic growth if Intelligent Labels (IL) growth continues to be slower than expected.

Answer

SVP & CFO Greg Lovins affirmed the continuation of their disciplined capital allocation strategy, including share buybacks, while the stock price remains attractive. He emphasized that the strong balance sheet provides capacity for organic investments, dividends, buybacks, and M&A. President & CEO Deon Stander added that with a leverage ratio of 2.3x and a robust M&A pipeline, the company has the flexibility to act on strategic opportunities.

Matt Roberts inquired about the 2026 volume outlook for the Dispensing and Specialty Closures (DSC) segment, specifically asking about hot fill beverage performance in Q4 and 2026, any lingering destocking impact in Q1 for home and personal care, and the sustainability of double-digit growth in fragrance, considering factors like customer orders, innovation, and consumer trends. He also asked about the drivers behind the better-than-expected Q4 EBIT and margin improvement in metal containers, including contractual changes, cost outs, and margin expectations for 2026 excluding raw materials.

Answer

CEO Adam Greenlee stated that Q4 DSC volumes were in line with expectations, with double-digit growth in fragrance and beauty offsetting anticipated destocking in personal and home care, which is now complete for DSC. For 2026, he expects significant growth in fragrance and beauty, driven by multi-year innovation pipelines and new business wins, while food and beverage volumes are projected to be comparable with conservative guidance. For metal containers, Mr. Greenlee attributed strong results to cost reduction initiatives, volume leverage from pet food growth, and margin-accretive long-term contracts. SVP Strategy and Investor Relations Alex Hutter added that 2026 metal container margins are expected to be stable, with pet food leverage offset by higher sales from raw material pass-throughs.

Matt Roberts asked for a detailed breakdown of Dispensing and Specialty Closures (DSC) volume expectations for 2026, specifically regarding hot fill beverage performance in Q4 2025 and 2026 outlook, any lingering destocking impact in home and personal care for Q1 2026, and the sustainability of double-digit fragrance growth. He also questioned the drivers behind the Metal Containers segment's better-than-expected Q4 2025 EBIT and margin improvement, inquiring about contractual changes or cost reduction initiatives.

Answer

Adam Greenlee, President and CEO, confirmed Q4 2025 DSC volumes were in line with expectations, including double-digit fragrance and beauty growth and anticipated personal/home care destocking, which is now complete with no Q1 2026 impact. For 2026, he expects continued significant fragrance and beauty growth driven by a multi-year innovation pipeline and new product launch wins, while food and beverage volumes are conservatively projected as comparable. Regarding Metal Containers, Mr. Greenlee attributed strong results to cost reduction initiatives, volume leverage from pet food growth, and margin-accretive long-term contracts. Alex Hutter, Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations, added that 2026 Metal Containers margins are expected to be stable, with pet food leverage offset by raw material pass-throughs.

Matt Roberts asked for a breakdown of Dispensing and Specialty Closures' revenue mix exposure to personal and home care products, the expected decline in these markets, and the drivers behind 15% fragrance growth. He also inquired about the potential growth contribution from healthcare and pharma in 2026 and an update on Vayner's trailing 12-month revenue/EBITDA and synergy achievement, clarifying if personal/home care impacts were isolated to legacy products.

Answer

Adam Greenlee, President and CEO, Silgan Holdings, stated that personal care and home care volumes were expected to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage in Q4. He attributed fragrance growth to winning new product launches and innovation in the premium segment, deferring 2026 healthcare/pharma specifics. Bob Lewis, EVP of Corporate Development and Administration, Silgan Holdings, noted personal care/home care margins are average for dispensing. Greenlee confirmed personal care/home care impacts were in legacy Silgan business, not Vayner, and that $20 million of $25 million synergies have been delivered, with Vayner's portfolio performing well post-integration.

Matt Roberts inquired about the financial and operational impact of a customer bankruptcy on the Metal Containers segment, including the potential revenue loss and long-term outlook for 2026. He also sought clarification on the revised EBIT guidance for the Dispensing and Specialty Closures segment and the performance of legacy dispensing volumes versus the newly acquired Vayner business.

Answer

President & CEO Adam Greenlee explained that the company mitigated financial risk from the bankruptcy filing but expects a $10M EBIT impact in 2025 due to the customer shifting volume to co-packers Silgan doesn't supply. He noted Silgan's competitively advantaged on-site facilities and readiness to right-size capacity if needed. SVP & CFO Kim Ulmer clarified the DSC EBIT guidance revision was solely due to a $10M headwind from hot-fill beverage closures, not other performance issues. Greenlee added that legacy dispensing growth remains strong, and the Vayner integration is uncovering new commercial synergies, particularly in the high-end fragrance and beauty markets.

Matt Roberts asked about the weakness in Amcor's healthcare (flexibles) segment, specifically if it was confined to a certain region, and requested expectations for the second half between pharma and healthcare broadly, including any mix impact.

Answer

CEO Peter Konieczny attributed the Q2 healthcare weakness to a weaker U.S. flu season and potential volume phasing, emphasizing that it's a short-term view for a strong category. He highlighted a recent GLP-1 win as an example of the combined company's strength in the space.

Matt Roberts from Raymond James inquired about the weakness in healthcare and flexibles, noting a low cold and flu season despite comping a prior-year destocking impact. He asked for reasons behind the weakness, regional confinement, and expectations for the second half between pharma and broader healthcare.

Answer

CEO Peter Konieczny acknowledged weaker healthcare volumes in Q2 but cautioned against over-interpreting short-term trends, emphasizing healthcare as a 'gem' in the portfolio. He attributed some weakness to a milder U.S. flu season and potential volume phasing between quarters. He highlighted Amcor's broad exposure across pharma and medical and mentioned a significant GLP-1 win as an example of the combined company's strength in the space.

Matt Roberts inquired about the sales and EBITDA contribution of the recently announced divestments, the remaining $900 million in non-core assets, how the multiples compared to prior expectations, and the line of sight for the remaining divestments, including potential impacts on leverage or timing.

Answer

CFO Michael Casamento clarified that one divestment was a small European plant with sales under $20 million, and the other was an equity-accounted joint venture, both contributing to the $100 million in proceeds used for debt reduction. He noted that the company continues to focus on other non-core businesses, including North American beverage.

Matt Roberts asked for the sales and EBITDA contribution of the recently announced divestments, the line of sight for the remaining $900 million in non-core assets, and any potential impact on leverage or timing.

Answer

Michael Casamento, CFO of Amcor, clarified that one divestment was a small European plant with sales less than $20 million and minimal earnings impact, while the other was an equity-accounted joint venture. He stated that the proceeds of $100 million would be used to pay down debt and that Amcor continues to work on other non-core businesses, including North American beverage.

Matt Roberts asked about CEO Robbert Rietbroek's strategic approach to Vision 2030, specifically whether it prioritizes operational efficiency or commercial efforts to achieve volume targets, and how it differs from previous strategies. He also inquired about balancing significant inventory reduction with the Waco facility ramp-up and the bridge to $700 million free cash flow in 2027, considering one-time benefits in 2026.

Answer

Robbert Rietbroek, President and CEO, highlighted his extensive CPG background and outlined a focus on cost reduction, productivity, operational excellence, customer experience, disciplined CapEx, and free cash flow generation. He mentioned a market-backed approach, manufacturing footprint review, selective portfolio review, and optimizing mill utilization. Regarding inventory, Rietbroek clarified the reduction targets recycled, bleached, and cup stock, and finished goods, assuring no customer service disruption. Chuck Lischer, SVP and Interim CFO, expressed confidence in 2026 free cash flow drivers and noted continued tax benefits and further inventory reduction for 2027, alongside reducing interest rates and ongoing CapEx discipline.

Matt Roberts asked about Robbert Rietbroek's distinct approach to Graphic Packaging's Vision 2030, focusing on whether it's more operationally or commercially driven to achieve free cash flow projections and flat volumes in 2026. He also inquired about balancing the significant inventory reduction (from 20% to 15% of sales) with the Waco ramp-up, and how the company plans to bridge to the $700 million free cash flow target in 2027, considering one-time benefits in 2026.

Answer

Robbert Rietbroek, President and CEO, highlighted his extensive CPG background and global perspective, emphasizing a disciplined approach to cost reduction, productivity, operational excellence, customer experience, and CapEx. He noted a focus on free cash flow generation, a market-backed customer-centric strategy, and a selective review of the manufacturing footprint and portfolio. For inventory, he clarified the reduction would primarily target recycled, bleached, and cup stock, along with finished goods, without disrupting customer service. Chuck Lischer, SVP and Interim CFO, expressed confidence in achieving the 2026 free cash flow target through identified levers, and for 2027, mentioned continued tax benefits, additional inventory reduction, and post-2027 factors like interest rate reductions and CapEx discipline.

Matt Roberts asked about the drag from competitive price pressure on SBS and CUK versus CRB in Q4, its expected duration, and whether Graphic Packaging could sell incremental SBS/CUK at the expense of CRB given the price spread. He also inquired about changes in sales mix by paper types, expected shifts in 2026, and how Waco's tons would impact the mix. He followed up by asking about flexibility in CapEx for next year, specifically if growth projects could be deferred to bring the 5% of sales target lower.

Answer

Mike Doss (President and CEO, Graphic Packaging) clarified that there was no share loss due to SBS/CUK competition, emphasizing that CRB is significantly cheaper to produce than SBS, making substitution unprofitable. He stated that the pressure was on package price, not paperboard, and expressed confidence in protecting and growing share with high-quality, low-cost CRB. He noted that CapEx requirements for virgin paperboard are four times that of recycled. Regarding CapEx flexibility, he confirmed they are looking at all options and will provide a clearer view for 2026, but reiterated confidence in the $350 million year-on-year inflection.

Matt Roberts asked about the impact and expected duration of competitive price pressure from SBS and CUK on CRB in Q4, inquiring if Graphic Packaging could leverage incremental SBS/CUK sales and how its sales mix by paper type might change in this environment, including the layering of Waco's tons in 2026. He also asked about flexibility in CapEx for next year and potential deferral of growth projects.

Answer

President and CEO Mike Doss stated that Graphic Packaging has not lost share, emphasizing that SBS is significantly more expensive to produce than CRB. He noted that the competitive pressure primarily affected package pricing rather than paperboard levels, and expressed confidence in protecting and growing share with high-quality, low-cost CRB from their platform, including Waco. He added that they are looking at all CapEx options and are confident in a $350 million inflection.

Matt Roberts asked for a breakdown of the $35 million cost headwind (tariffs vs. Millersburg, timing), other 2026 cost considerations like PPI resets, and the expected sequential operating leverage improvement for EMEA as Benepack ramps up.

Answer

SVP and CFO Dan Rabbitt clarified that the $35 million cost headwind is more back-half weighted in 2026, primarily from Millersburg startup, setting up improvement for 2027. He stated that the Benepack ramp-up in EMEA will also be a back-half 2026 event, with full benefits expected more in 2027, similar to Millersburg's timing.

Matt Roberts with Raymond James asked for a breakdown of the $35 million cost headwind in North America (timing of tariffs vs. Millersburg), any other 2026 cost considerations like PPI resets, and the expected sequential improvement and timing of EMEA operating leverage from the Benepack acquisition.

Answer

SVP and CFO Dan Rabbitt clarified that the $35 million cost headwind for North America is expected to be more back-half weighted in 2026, setting up improvements for 2027. He also stated that the Benepack ramp-up in EMEA is similarly back-half weighted, with the full benefit anticipated in 2027.

Matt Roberts asked about fiber converting volumes and operating rates, specifically how current rates compare to prior quarters and if they support previously taken prices. He also inquired about the timing for tubes and cores and fiber generally to return to growth, given the lapping of paperboard supply cuts. Additionally, he asked about any non-materials impacts on price-cost and sought clarification on the share repurchase program, specifically the remaining $20 million from the $150 million authorization and the cadence of the new $300 million authorization.

Answer

CEO Ole Rosgaard stated that URB mills took about 14,000 tons of economic downtime in Q1 due to converting softness, with converting seeing similar mid-single-digit declines, primarily driven by the paper industry. He expects fiber profitability to improve sequentially. CFO Larry Hilsheimer confirmed no significant changes in non-materials impacts on price-cost beyond what was previously laid out, noting that cost takeouts (like 220 headcount reductions) are helping to overcome inflationary challenges. Ole Rosgaard clarified that $20 million remains from the $150 million share repurchase program and will likely be concluded by summer. Larry Hilsheimer added that the $300 million authorization is incremental, and while the go-forward intention is roughly 2% annually, they could decide to pursue more if the stock remains a good buy.

Matt Roberts asked about Fiber converting volume declines and operating rates, questioning if current rates support previous price actions. He also inquired about the timing for Tubes and Cores and Fiber to return to growth, the impact of non-material costs on the Fiber price-cost bridge, and details on the share repurchase program.

Answer

CEO Ole Rosgaard stated that URB mills took about 14,000 tons of economic downtime in Q1 due to converting softness, with the paper industry being the largest driver. He expects Fiber profitability to improve sequentially. CFO Larry Hilsheimer confirmed no changes in OCC or URB price expectations and noted that cost takeouts, including 220 headcount reductions, are offsetting inflationary impacts like healthcare. Ole Rosgaard clarified that $130 million of the $150 million repurchase program is complete, with $20 million remaining to be concluded by summer. Larry Hilsheimer added that the new $300 million authorization is incremental, with a go-forward intention of repurchasing approximately 2% of shares annually, subject to board approval, but could be more if the stock remains a compelling buy.

Matt Roberts of Raymond James Financial asked about the upper leverage range Greif would consider for a potential deal and the appetite for a transformative acquisition. He also requested color on the remaining Fiber business post-divestiture and the cause of margin variance in the Integrated Solutions segment.

Answer

EVP & CFO Larry Hilsheimer stated that while the company targets 2-2.5x leverage, it would exceed that for the right strategic deal, given its ability to deleverage quickly. He noted no transformative deals are currently on the market. Both Hilsheimer and President, CEO & Director Ole Rosgaard emphasized Greif's strong market leadership in the remaining Fiber businesses. Hilsheimer attributed the Integrated Solutions margin pressure to higher OCC costs impacting the recycled fiber business.

Asked for clarification on the April volume trends, checking for potential distortions and seeking confirmation on Q3 consensus expectations. Also inquired about the cash proceeds from recent divestitures and the nature of future portfolio optimization transactions.

Answer

Industrial categories that had a bigger headwind from destocking last year will provide a nice tailwind in H2. The expected $80 million H2 improvement over H1 will be spread slightly more to Q4, which is in line with the analyst's numbers. The proceeds from the two divestitures in the quarter were very similar to the purchase price for F&S Tool. Future opportunities are expected to be cash transactions.