Matthew Akers

Matthew Akers asked about the company's capital deployment strategy, specifically if investors should be more cautious about assuming share buybacks given industry pressure. He also inquired if the significant CapEx step-up in 2026 is a multi-year investment or if it will revert to more normalized levels in 2027 and beyond.

Answer

Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and CEO, reiterated the strategy of investing in the growing business to execute backlog, committing to the dividend but declining to comment on share repurchases. She also stated that the company will continue to invest year over year in its businesses due to long-term growth embedded in the backlog, with CapEx varying but the strategy remaining consistent.

Matthew Akers asked if investors should be more cautious about assuming capital deployment, specifically buybacks, given industry pressures. He also questioned whether the current step-up in CapEx is a multi-year investment or if it will revert to normalized levels in 2027 and beyond.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Phebe Novakovic reiterated the company's strategy of investing in the business due to backlog, commitment to the dividend, and a policy of not commenting on share repurchases. She confirmed that CapEx investments will continue year over year, varying but remaining consistent with the long-term growth strategy.

Matthew Akers asked about Rocket Lab's involvement and potential opportunities in the 'Golden Dome' defense program and the potential risk from proposed cuts to NASA's budget.

Answer

CEO Peter Beck affirmed that Rocket Lab intends to be a significant player in the Golden Dome program, leveraging its capabilities as a prime contractor for national security projects and its new corporate structure. Regarding NASA, Beck acknowledged that while Rocket Lab is a trusted launch provider for the agency, NASA does not constitute a significant portion of the company's backlog or pipeline, thus mitigating the risk from potential budget cuts.

Matthew Akers asked about the timeline for the company's 'Phase 3' space services ambitions and its dependency on Neutron's launch cadence, and also inquired about the progress payment structure for Neutron contracts and its effect on working capital.

Answer

CEO Peter Beck confirmed that a reusable, high-cadence launch vehicle like Neutron is the essential key to unlocking the company's own satellite constellation services, making it a prerequisite. CFO Adam Spice explained that while the Neutron payment structure of deposits and milestone payments is similar to Electron's, the initial working capital cycle will be challenging and cash-consuming until the vehicle achieves full reusability.

Matthew Akers from Wells Fargo inquired about the revenue trend from the Mexico contract heading into fiscal 2026 and whether the Security division can continue to grow despite this headwind. He also asked about potential opportunities related to U.S. border security under the new administration and the upcoming budget cycle.

Answer

Executive President & CFO Alan Edrick expressed confidence that the Security division will continue to grow, noting that strong bookings in cargo and aviation are successfully backfilling the declining Mexico contract revenue. He highlighted that even with Mexico revenue halving year-over-year in Q3, the division still grew 10%. Regarding border security, Alan Edrick pointed to a potential $1.1 billion in multi-year funding for NII equipment in a budget reconciliation bill, which would be additive to the baseline budget and provide significant multi-year visibility.

Matthew Akers from Wells Fargo inquired about the cash flow outlook, potential risks from tariffs under the new administration, and the expected seasonality between Q3 and Q4.

Answer

EVP and CFO Alan Edrick projected continued strong, albeit lumpy, cash flow as working capital normalizes. President and CEO Ajay Mehra addressed tariff risk by highlighting OSI's manufacturing flexibility across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He also explained that the second half of the fiscal year is typically weighted towards Q4, which is usually the strongest quarter for both revenue and operating margins.

Matthew Akers questioned if receivables and DSO could return to historical levels, inquired about the drivers of improved Healthcare profitability, and asked to quantify the new acquisition's contribution to the updated guidance.

Answer

EVP and CFO Alan Edrick stated that OSI does expect DSO to return to historical norms over time, as the current elevation is largely tied to specific large contracts like the one with SEDENA in Mexico. He noted Healthcare profitability improved due to cost-saving initiatives and expects further margin expansion as revenues grow in seasonally stronger quarters. He confirmed the guidance raise was a mix of the acquisition's contribution and increased confidence in the organic business.

Matthew Akers asked for an updated outlook on the relative growth between commercial OE and aftermarket, and for the latest full-year forecast for China on-highway sales.

Answer

CEO Charles Blankenship clarified the growth hierarchy for the year, with defense OE expected to be strongest, followed by commercial aftermarket, and then commercial OE. CFO William Lacey updated the full-year China on-highway sales forecast to approximately $50 million.

Matthew Akers sought more details on the Safran acquisition, including the new A350 content, and asked about the company's M&A strategy and plans for free cash flow beyond the announced $215 million shareholder return.

Answer

CEO Charles Blankenship described the Safran deal as a strategic bolt-on for technology and customer access, highlighting the addition of the Horizontal Stabilizer Trim Actuation (HSTA) system for the A350. CFO William Lacey indicated that the company has the capacity to deploy capital beyond the stated $215 million, potentially for more share repurchases or organic investments, but has not earmarked the excess funds yet.

Matthew Akers inquired about the status of paused production for Boeing, the assumptions behind the aerospace guidance range, and the company's capital deployment priorities, including its target leverage ratio.

Answer

CEO Charles Blankenship clarified that only direct-to-Boeing airframe production was paused and has not yet restarted pending firm rate targets. CFO William Lacey outlined a balanced capital allocation strategy focused on high-return projects, share repurchases, and M&A, stating a leverage target of around 1.5x EBITDA provides flexibility.

Matthew Akers asked Executive Ken Bedingfield for his initial impressions and thoughts on opportunities for the Aerojet Rocketdyne business since taking it over.

Answer

Executive Kenneth Bedingfield described Aerojet Rocketdyne as a 'great business' with a 'fantastic team' that is well-positioned to meet national needs. He highlighted a focus on capacity expansion in Missile Solutions, which is driving strong growth. Key opportunities include Golden Dome, interceptor programs, space propulsion (NASA's SLS and ULA's RL10), and driving production efficiencies through additive manufacturing. CEO Christopher Kubasik added that customers are pleased with the acquisition and impressed with the turnaround.

Matthew Akers asked how customers are responding to the company's cost-saving initiatives and whether this improved competitiveness contributed to the strong order intake during the quarter.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kubasik confirmed that customers are taking notice of the LHX NeXt transformation, viewing it not just as cost savings but as a move toward digital engineering and faster, data-driven decisions. He explained that the savings provide flexibility to either share benefits with customers through more competitive pricing or bid on higher-margin programs. He stated that based on the high book-to-bill rates and win rates, the strategy is clearly providing a competitive advantage.

Matthew Akers asked for an update on contract award delays mentioned by management during the quarter and sought more color on which business areas were most affected.

Answer

CEO Kathy Warden confirmed the delayed contracts had not yet been awarded but are progressing, with expectations for awards in Q2 and H2. She specified that the delays impacted all four business segments, including large aircraft programs, restricted space and mission systems opportunities, and munitions contracts.

Matthew Akers from Wells Fargo asked for an update on the Sentinel program review and whether the outlook is well-calibrated. He also questioned the drivers behind the free cash flow growth slowdown projected after 2025.

Answer

CEO Kathy Warden confirmed the Sentinel outlook is well-calibrated, with the program restructure expected to take 18-24 months, and 2025 revenue projected to be a mid-single-digit percentage of total revenue. CFO Ken Crews explained that the strong 2025 free cash flow growth is driven by working capital management, profitable growth, and CAS tailwinds, while growth in 2026 and beyond normalizes with the overall business growth rate as those tailwinds lessen.

Matthew Akers from Wells Fargo inquired about the long-term trend for capital expenditures beyond 2025 and the primary drivers of the current elevated investment levels.

Answer

Chair, CEO and President Kathy Warden explained that recent high CapEx levels were necessary to support major growth programs moving into production. She anticipates CapEx will decline in 2025 and further in 2026, moving back towards historical norms but not below them, as the most capital-intensive phase of investment for the current growth cycle is passing.

Matthew Akers asked why RTX is not able to pass through a larger portion of the $850 million tariff impact, given its ability to use contract escalations, aftermarket pricing, and duty drawbacks for exported products.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO Christopher Calio explained that the mitigation processes are relatively new, and the company expects to improve its effectiveness over time. Regarding pricing, he noted that while RTX has been assertive in passing on costs, it must remain balanced based on market conditions and contractual terms, stating that pricing is not a 'panacea' for all tariff impacts.

Matthew Akers of Wells Fargo asked about the pension outlook, noting the FAS/CAS headwind in 2025 and questioning if this trend is expected to continue in subsequent years.

Answer

CFO Neil Mitchill confirmed the $0.15 EPS headwind in 2025 is a result of a de-risking strategy for the company's well-funded (104%) pension plan. He stated that while the plans remain very strong, pension income is expected to continue to trail off slightly each year after 2025.

Matthew Akers from Wells Fargo inquired about SAIC's exposure to government workforce reductions, the composition of the FY'26 organic growth guidance, and the expected growth seasonality between the first and second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Toni Townes-Whitley stated that the impact from government layoffs has been nominal to date and could present an opportunity for contractor support. CFO Prabu Natarajan noted that over 75% of the guided revenue is already in backlog, with a focus on on-contract growth. He explained that growth is expected to accelerate in the second half, as Q1 faces more significant recompete headwinds which ease as the year progresses.

Matthew Akers asked for the financial impact of the AAV contract resolution and questioned the fiscal year 2026 growth outlook, particularly regarding recompete risks.

Answer

CFO Prabu Natarajan quantified the AAV contract's impact as minimal, around $13-14 million in revenue. CEO Toni Townes-Whitley reiterated the company's path to achieving a book-to-bill ratio over 1.0 by the first half of fiscal 2026, leading to mid-single-digit growth by the second half. Prabu Natarajan specified that the recompete headwind for fiscal 2026 is projected to be just over 2%, a significant improvement from the current year.

Matthew Akers of Baird asked about the company's confidence in achieving a 1.2x book-to-bill ratio and the strategic focus on the civilian market, particularly its resilience to potential budget shifts after the U.S. election.

Answer

CEO Toni Townes-Whitley expressed confidence in reaching the book-to-bill target, citing a high bid submission rate of $14.5B in H1 vs. $17B for all of FY24 and a $10B pipeline of submitted bids pending award. Regarding the civilian market, she stated the portfolio is positioned in agencies with bipartisan support (like DOT, DHS, and VA), making it resilient to political shifts. CFO Prabu Natarajan added that SAIC is underrepresented in the civilian space and sees a significant opportunity to gain market share.

Matthew Akers inquired about potential business disruptions in Q1 from the new administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and any pauses in federal spending.

Answer

CEO Thomas Bell stated that Leidos has not seen any significant disruption, only minor, short-lived pauses in contracting vehicles that quickly resumed. CFO Chris Cage added that while the company has prepared a playbook for longer disruptions, it has not been necessary to use it.

Matthew Akers highlighted the strong margin uptake in the three segments outside of Health and asked about the drivers behind this improvement and how much further those margins could be pushed higher.

Answer

CFO Chris Cage attributed the broad-based improvement to strong execution. He cited repeatable offerings and efficiencies in National Security and Digital, and better bidding and program discipline in Defense Systems. He pointed to the best EAC performance in four years as a company-wide achievement. CEO Thomas Bell added that all segment leaders are incentivized to achieve best-in-class profitability, suggesting more progress is expected.

Matthew Akers of Wells Fargo inquired about client reactions to China's AI advancements, like DeepSeek, and whether the recent stock price decline might prompt more aggressive share repurchases.

Answer

CEO Horacio Rozanski stated they have been tracking these AI developments, noting it demonstrates the dynamic nature of the field and reinforces the need for speed (VoLT). He also highlighted the national security risks of deploying foreign AI models. CFO Matt Calderone confirmed they have already repurchased $500 million in shares this fiscal year and that their strong balance sheet provides flexibility to continue deploying capital aggressively.

Matthew Akers of Wells Fargo asked for an update on the F-35 program, including the remaining steps for Tech Refresh 3 (TR-3), the size of the final payment withhold, and the status of Lot 19 negotiations.

Answer

CFO Jesus Malave reported excellent progress on TR-3 but expects the work to 'bleed into 2026' for financial modeling purposes. He confirmed that the Lot 18 contract should be definitized in the first half of 2025, with the Lot 19 contract, valued at approximately $10 billion, expected to be finalized in the second half of 2025.

An associate on behalf of Matt Akers from Wells Fargo & Company asked about the drivers for the expected EBITDA margin step-up in the second half of the year and requested an update on the integration of recent acquisitions and the M&A pipeline.

Answer

CFO Jeffrey MacLauchlan explained that margins would see a slight dip in Q3 due to timing before a stronger Q4, consistent with historical seasonality. CEO John Mengucci confirmed the integrations of Azure Summit and Applied Insight are on track and performing well. The company will focus on deleveraging while remaining opportunistic regarding its M&A pipeline of founder-operated businesses.

Matthew Akers asked for guidance on the expected quarterly progression of sales in 2025 and sought to identify the primary driver for the forecasted decline in the Industrial segment.

Answer

Executive Patrick Winterlich confirmed an expected upward ramp throughout 2025, with programs like the A320 and 737 MAX anticipated to increase production rates in the second half. He identified two main drivers for the Industrial segment's decline: the divestiture of the Neumarkt, Austria facility (approximately $40 million in annual sales) and continued softness in the automotive subsegment.

Matthew Akers from Wells Fargo & Company questioned if Hexcel is reviewing other parts of its portfolio for potential divestiture beyond the Austrian facility and what conditions would be necessary for the company to reinstate its midterm financial guidance.

Answer

CEO Tom Gentile stated that Hexcel's portfolio is largely homogenous, making the Austrian plant an exception, and no other major divestitures are planned. He explained that due to significant supply chain uncertainty, midterm guidance is not feasible, and the company will focus on providing 2025 guidance in January.