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    Matthew Blair • Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

    Matthew Blair's questions to Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair from TPH&Co inquired about the drivers behind Hawaii's strong Q2 capture rate and sought details on the new SAF joint venture, including its origin, benefits, and expected timeline for EBITDA contribution.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Sean Flores attributed the high 119% capture rate to elevated clean product freight rates and improved yields from record throughput. President & CEO Will Monteleone added that the record throughput resulted from 18 months of de-constraining efforts. Regarding the JV, Monteleone highlighted the project's attractive operating costs and logistics, noting the partnership with Mitsubishi and INEOS expands distribution capabilities. He projected a second-half 2025 startup, with financial contributions beginning in 2026.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the factors that enabled the Wyoming refinery to restart a month ahead of schedule and the drivers behind the current tight heavy Canadian crude discounts.

    Answer

    EVP of Refining and Logistics Richard Creamer credited the efficient, collaborative effort of the Wyoming team and third-party contractors. President and CEO Will Monteleone added that the team's swift action in cold weather prevented further damage. Regarding crude, Monteleone explained that excess pipeline capacity out of Canada has tightened the market, a situation he expects to persist until production increases to absorb the capacity.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked about Par Pacific's capital allocation strategy, specifically the balance between share repurchases and debt reduction following the new $250 million authorization. He also inquired about the company's confidence in its Hawaii SAF project, given recent industry-wide cancellations, and the expected sales mix between long-term contracts and spot sales.

    Answer

    President and CEO William Monteleone explained that the share repurchase reauthorization provides additional capacity and their approach will remain dynamic, balancing buybacks with maintaining a comfortable liquidity cushion. Regarding the SAF project, Mr. Monteleone highlighted its competitive advantages, including low operating costs as an 'inside the fence' project, superior logistics, and a low capital cost of $92 million. He noted this provides commercial flexibility to sell into the West Coast or to airlines in the Asia Pacific market.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for specifics on the planned $30-40 million operating expense reduction for 2025 and questioned the long-term strategic outlook for the Washington (Tacoma) refinery given recent market pressures.

    Answer

    President and CEO William Monteleone explained that the OpEx savings will come from two main areas: roughly half from corporate expense reduction via IT system consolidation post-Billings acquisition, and the other half from refining and logistics costs. For the Washington refinery, Monteleone emphasized its competitive advantages, including a low operating cost structure and favorable feedstock sourcing, which position it to endure low-margin cycles and capture upside during market rationalization.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. questioned the Q3 outlook for the Supply and Marketing segment, asking if its strong Q2 performance would continue. He also sought clarity on the most likely options and timeline for the sum-of-the-parts monetization, particularly the economic separation of DKL.

    Answer

    President and CEO Avigal Soreq attributed the strong Supply and Marketing performance to EOP efforts, improved logistics, and new long-term contracts, noting Q2 also benefited from seasonality. EVP Mohit Bhardwaj elaborated that the strategy focuses on wholesale, asphalt, and supply. On the SOTP strategy, Soreq confirmed they are actively working on steps, highlighting past successes like the retail sale and the growth and increased independence of DKL, and pointed to recent high-valuation transactions of similar midstream assets as evidence of DKL's intrinsic value.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for an outlook on the Supply and Marketing segment for the second quarter, particularly regarding wholesale and asphalt, and questioned the dynamics in the Southwest refining market, which appeared to have a sluggish start to the year.

    Answer

    Avigal Soreq, President and CEO, and executive Mohit Bhardwaj responded. They highlighted a $10 million sequential improvement in Q1 driven by EOP initiatives despite seasonal weakness. For Q2, they noted a strong start with positive trends in rack demand and crack spreads. Bhardwaj specifically countered the notion of Southwest market weakness, pointing to strong cracks in Arizona driven by supply issues on the West Coast.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair questioned the drivers behind the Q4 loss in the supply and marketing segment and asked for an update on the potential investment in the Bakersfield renewable diesel facility.

    Answer

    Patrick Reilly, Chief Commercial Officer, attributed the Q4 supply and marketing loss to seasonal inland demand weakness and a major turnaround at Krotz Springs, but noted performance improved by $10 million year-over-year. Avigal Soreq, President and CEO, and Mohit Bhardwaj stated that the Bakersfield renewable diesel investment is not an active consideration, as it is contingent on the facility first demonstrating three months of healthy operations.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked for details on the planned 2025 CapEx reduction and whether the new forecast represents a sustainable minimum. He also inquired about the drivers for the sequential improvement in the supply and marketing segment and its outlook.

    Answer

    President and CEO Avigal Soreq explained the CapEx reduction reflects a lower-spend year, stating a sustainable base level is around $25 million per refinery in non-turnaround years. Regarding supply and marketing, Avigal Soreq and EVP of Operations Joseph Israel attributed the Q3 improvement to new commercial strategies, enhanced reliability, new logistics optionality, and new product offerings, stating the controllable portion of this improvement is sustainable.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Chemical Partners LP (WLKP) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Chemical Partners LP (WLKP) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of TPH & Co. inquired about potential Q3 operational impacts from a Q2 outage and the current performance of OpCo assets. He also asked for an assessment of the company's four growth levers and the likelihood of a distribution increase in 2025 or 2026.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO M. Steven Bender clarified that the Q2 outage did not affect the ethylene unit, which is now running reliably post-turnaround. Regarding growth, Bender explained that with the parent company, Westlake Corporation, not needing immediate capital and MLP markets being contracted, there is no current plan to utilize the growth levers to raise equity.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Chemical Partners LP (WLKP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair inquired about the financial impact of the Q1 Petro 1 turnaround, asking if it was more significant than past events, and questioned the rationale for maintaining the MLP structure given the compressed valuation spread with its parent, Westlake Corporation.

    Answer

    Steven Bender, Executive Vice President and CFO, explained that the turnaround's financial impact was consistent with internal plans, reflecting the unit being offline for two months. He suggested elevated interest rates could be another factor weighing on results. On the MLP's valuation, Bender noted that while the spread has compressed, the company evaluates the structure over a full business cycle, where the value proposition remains elevated.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Chemical Partners LP (WLKP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. inquired about whether Westlake would consider ending the MLP arrangement to cut costs and asked for details on the financial impact of the planned 60-day turnaround.

    Answer

    Steven Bender, Executive Vice President and CFO, responded that ending the MLP for cost control is not a consideration because its value proposition from a multiple perspective outweighs the administrative costs. Regarding the turnaround, he confirmed it would cause a temporary dip in the distribution coverage ratio, consistent with historical precedents, but expects a full recovery to the 1.1x target once the unit is back online, as the costs have been fully reserved and funded.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Chemical Partners LP (WLKP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the significance of shifting third-party sales volumes into Q3 and the resulting impact on Q4, as well as the 2025 outlook for restarting distribution growth and asset drops.

    Answer

    Steven Bender, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, clarified that the volume shift was a strategic move to capture high Q3 margins and that the impact on Q4 would be minimal as most third-party volume for the year has been sold. On future growth, Bender noted the company continues to assess the MLP market and is evaluating all options for restarting distribution growth and asset drops, contingent on finding accretive opportunities and investor appetite.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked about the sustainability of recent strength in diesel cracks and the strategic rationale for divesting the company's stake in its ethanol joint venture.

    Answer

    CCO Rick Hessling stated that strong diesel cracks are supported by low inventories and robust demand, and he expects this to persist through year-end. CEO Maryann Mannen explained the ethanol divestiture was driven by a compelling valuation and diverging strategic goals with their partner, noting no commercial impact as MPC remains the largest ethanol blender.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked about the renewable diesel business, questioning the feedstock mix and whether the segment was on track for positive EBITDA in Q2. He also inquired about the outlook for the RVO and the implementation timing for new California LCFS targets.

    Answer

    CFO John Quaid and CEO Maryann Mannen emphasized a focus on optimizing feedstock via the new pretreat unit and their Neste JV, but declined to forecast Q2 profitability. Executive James Wilkins addressed the regulatory questions, stating there is still uncertainty on the LCFS timeline but that more clarity is expected by the end of June, with a potential effective date ranging from Q2 2025 to 2026.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked for a comparison of refined product demand trends between the U.S. and overseas export markets, with a focus on gasoline versus diesel. He also questioned how potential regulatory changes might alter the company's Renewable Diesel feedstock strategy, particularly concerning vegetable oils and imported used cooking oil.

    Answer

    Executive Rick Hessling noted significant demand signals from Latin America and Europe, with growth being more robust than seen in a while, and highlighted a particular uplift in gasoline export demand. Regarding feedstocks, Hessling explained the strategy is to maximize low-carbon-intensity stocks, which aligns well with potential regulatory frameworks. CEO Maryann Mannen added that reaching full nameplate capacity at Martinez enhances their ability to optimize feedstocks through their partnership with Neste, which is a key value driver for 2025.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Corp (WLK) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Corp (WLK) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked for an overview of the global supply-demand outlook for PVC, including new capacity additions and operating rates in China. He also questioned if the significant year-to-date use of working capital would reverse in the second half of the year.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Steven Bender noted that significant new PVC capacity is not expected in 2025 and that some Asian producers are operating at a loss, leading to discussions of rationalization. He also confirmed that the working capital use in the first half, driven by payables for turnarounds and higher receivables, is expected to reverse in the second half of 2025.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Corp (WLK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. inquired about the M&A pipeline and whether the current market weakness is creating acquisition opportunities. He also asked for commentary on any differing trends between residential and commercial construction.

    Answer

    M. Bender, EVP and CFO, confirmed that acquisitions remain an important growth element and that good opportunities can arise in markets like this. He noted Westlake's strong balance sheet allows it to act on them. He declined to comment on the commercial market, stating Westlake's focus is residential, where their outlook is for starts around 1.3 million, consistent with industry forecasts.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Westlake Corp (WLK) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair inquired about the M&A landscape, capital deployment priorities, and whether Westlake is more interested in PEM or HIP assets. He also asked about the likelihood of Q1 2025 HIP EBITDA margins exceeding the full-year guidance.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Steve Bender said Westlake evaluates opportunities in both segments but leans toward HIP for near-term cash flow generation, noting constructive dialogue with asset owners. Regarding Q1 margins, he stated that while the outlook is positive, performance is highly dependent on the weather's impact on the start of the construction season, making it difficult to predict relative to full-year guidance.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Olin Corp (OLN) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Olin Corp (OLN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked about Olin's current utilization rates for EDC and requested an updated sensitivity for EBITDA for every one-cent change in EDC pricing.

    Answer

    President and CEO Ken Lane did not provide a specific EBITDA sensitivity but reiterated that Olin is the most advantaged producer and will operate its assets to maximize value. He noted that Q2 utilization rates were lower due to planned turnarounds and are expected to increase in Q3, but emphasized that the company's focus remains on value generation rather than operating rates.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Olin Corp (OLN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked about the divergence between rising U.S. spot caustic prices and recent price drops in Southeast Asia, questioning what is driving the delta and if the falling Asian values are a concern.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kenneth Lane acknowledged Olin is watching the Asian market closely but does not see it as a concern. He stated that U.S. price increases are firming, partly due to the pass-through of tariffs on imports to the West Coast. He reiterated a constructive outlook for caustic soda in the Americas, Olin's primary market, citing continued strength in the U.S. and Latin America.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Olin Corp (OLN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair requested an update and ranking of Olin's potential growth projects, including the Radford AMMO bid, a California bleach plant, and a Quebec plant expansion.

    Answer

    CEO Kenneth Lane identified the Radford bid as a priority due to its capital-light nature. He described the other two projects as attractive but stated that decisions would be phased according to Olin's capital allocation framework and return hurdles. He did not provide a definitive priority ranking between the two capital-intensive projects.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Phillips 66 (PSX) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Phillips 66 (PSX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for clarification on the Q3 refining utilization guidance, which seemed low, and inquired if the company would consider bringing in a partner for its renewables business.

    Answer

    SVP of Refining Richard Harbison explained the lower Q3 utilization guidance is due to the impact of an unplanned power outage at the Bayway refinery and the operational wind-down of the Los Angeles refinery ahead of its Q4 shutdown. Chairman & CEO Mark Lashier responded that for a strategic asset like renewables, all options to create value are always considered, stating that 'everything's on the table.'

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Phillips 66 (PSX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked about the outlook for the Marketing & Specialties (M&S) segment in Q2, given the falling crude price environment, and requested a breakdown of M&S EBITDA related to wholesale activities for peer comparison purposes.

    Answer

    Brian Mandell, EVP of Marketing and Commercial, confirmed that falling prices are generally beneficial for marketing and that April margins were stronger, leading to an expectation of a seasonal uptick in Q2 earnings. Kevin Mitchell, CFO, responded that the company does not break out its M&S results by channel of trade (wholesale vs. retail) but noted that the business is predominantly wholesale with a relatively low cost structure.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Phillips 66 (PSX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked for details on achieving the new target of $5.50/barrel for controllable refinery costs, inquiring about the specific levers and the contribution from the Los Angeles Refinery closure. He also asked about the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market and whether PSX expects to increase production.

    Answer

    Rich Harbison (Refining) stated the L.A. refinery closure would account for roughly 50% of the cost reduction, with the rest coming from continued business transformation and improved reliability. Brian Mandell (Marketing and Commercial) said that while SAF is an important product, production decisions are based on a linear program that optimizes for the best netback value against renewable diesel, and the market is currently tight.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Phillips 66 (PSX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about expectations for Q4 refining capture rates and the specific headwinds that impacted the West Coast in Q3.

    Answer

    Jeffrey Dietert stated it was too early to forecast Q4 capture rates. Rich Harbison of Refining detailed the Q3 West Coast headwinds, which included weaker market cracks, unfavorable feedstock advantages, inventory drawdowns in a falling price environment, and costs associated with the Rodeo and Los Angeles refinery transitions.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Celanese Corp (CE) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Celanese Corp (CE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the sales mix within the weakening automotive market and whether the historical tailwinds from hybrids and EVs are still present.

    Answer

    CEO & President Scott A. Richardson confirmed that the company is not seeing a major reversal of EV and hybrid tailwinds. He noted that while the pullback in China has slightly lowered the global EV sales mix temporarily, electric vehicles are here to stay. He anticipates that future model launches in Europe will be critical and that the U.S. market will feature a flexible mix of ICE, hybrid, and electric vehicles, for which the company's portfolio is well-positioned.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Celanese Corp (CE) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked for help reconciling strong March/April industry data for autos and durables, which some feared was a tariff-related pull-forward, with Celanese's commentary that demand was holding steady into May.

    Answer

    CEO Scott Richardson acknowledged the market uncertainty, suggesting the strong demand could be a rebalancing and restocking of the value chain rather than a simple pre-buy ahead of tariffs. While he stressed that the second-half demand outlook remains uncertain and June orders are not yet clear, he noted that customers are not currently signaling a significant drop-off.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Celanese Corp (CE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. inquired about the potential scope of asset divestitures, asking about targeted segments and regions, and requested an update on the European auto market.

    Answer

    CEO Lori Ryerkerk explained that the company's divestiture review is broad and not limited to a specific segment or region, focusing on assets more valuable to another owner. COO Scott Richardson noted that the latest European auto data has been incorporated into the company's Q4 guidance.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Valero Energy Corp (VLO) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Valero Energy Corp (VLO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the drivers of strong Q2 results in the North Atlantic region and questioned the likelihood and impact of the proposed SRE reallocation in the RVO.

    Answer

    VP Greg Bram credited the North Atlantic's strong performance to solid commercial margins and good operations at the Pembroke refinery, as maintenance primarily impacted throughput at Quebec. EVP Rich Walsh expressed skepticism that the SRE reallocation will proceed, arguing it would be legally challenging for small refiners to prove the required economic harm.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Valero Energy Corp (VLO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the factors driving the strong Q2 results in the North Atlantic region, which improved despite maintenance and tighter Syncrude differentials. He also questioned the likelihood of the proposed SRE reallocation in the RVO and whether those costs could be passed through to consumers.

    Answer

    VP of Refining Services Greg Bram credited the strong North Atlantic performance to robust commercial margins and excellent operational execution at the Pembroke refinery, which offset maintenance impacts at Quebec. EVP & General Counsel Rich Walsh expressed skepticism that many SREs would be granted due to the high legal standard, and suggested the EPA will likely need to revise its RVO proposal to make it realistic.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Valero Energy Corp (VLO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the potential for a nationwide E15 mandate and whether to expect a sequential improvement in refining capture rates for the second quarter.

    Answer

    Eric Fisher, EVP of Commercial, stated he does not see momentum for a nationwide E15 standard due to supply chain complexities and insufficient ethanol production. An executive named Greg cautioned that while maintenance impacts might lessen, the seasonal removal of butane from gasoline typically works against Q2 capture rates.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Valero Energy Corp (VLO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked for Valero's take on the momentum for nationwide E15 implementation and whether to expect a quarter-over-quarter improvement in refining capture rates for Q2.

    Answer

    Eric Fisher, an executive, expressed skepticism about nationwide E15, citing supply chain complexity and insufficient U.S. ethanol production capacity to meet such a mandate. An executive named Greg addressed capture rates, stating it's hard to predict due to multiple factors, but noted that the seasonal removal of butane from the gasoline pool typically works against capture rates in the summer.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Valero Energy Corp (VLO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair questioned the potential impact of Canadian tariffs on Valero's product side, specifically for the Quebec City refinery. He also asked if the new 45V credit would affect DGD's use of imported used cooking oil (UCO).

    Answer

    Gary Simmons, EVP and COO, stated he does not expect a throughput reduction at Quebec, as any displaced diesel volumes can be sold globally. An executive clarified that imported UCO has always been intended for SAF production for the European market, so the new U.S. tax credit policy does not change their strategy for that feedstock.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Valero Energy Corp (VLO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair of TPH inquired about the record-high Q4 ethanol volume guidance amid weak margins and asked if the potential for rising global tariffs is a concern.

    Answer

    Executive Eric Fisher explained the high ethanol run rates are supported by expanded production capacity and growing export markets, driven by attractive U.S. corn prices and increasing global mandates. On tariffs, executive Richard Walsh expressed low concern, noting that energy is not typically a target for such tariffs as most countries want to avoid raising their energy costs.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Dow Inc (DOW) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Dow Inc (DOW) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the intended use of cash saved from the dividend cut, questioning if it would support the balance sheet now and be allocated to organic growth or share buybacks in a mid-cycle environment.

    Answer

    CEO Jim Fitterling clarified the immediate goal is to maintain cash flexibility through the cycle's trough, not to fund new CapEx. This flexibility could allow for actions like share buybacks when conditions are right. CFO Jeff Tate added that the focus is on balance sheet strength in the near term, while ensuring they can fund value-creating opportunities in the medium to long term, supported by a strong debt maturity profile.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Dow Inc (DOW) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked about the security of the dividend in the current environment, considering the incoming cash from asset sales, cost reductions, and lower capital spending.

    Answer

    Chair and CEO James Fitterling reiterated that an attractive dividend is a priority and that the nearly $6 billion in near-term cash actions will help support it. However, he cautioned that the company must continue to monitor the evolving macroeconomic landscape, especially regarding tariffs, and will manage its capital allocation framework accordingly, noting customer uncertainty is currently impacting visibility.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Dow Inc (DOW) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked for an outlook on the U.S. ethane market, whether current frac spreads are temporary or structural, and about the potential for an offset from the Devon JV and any appetite to expand it.

    Answer

    James Fitterling, Chair and CEO, projected a Q4 ethane price range of $0.19-$0.23 and expects frac spreads to remain at or below $0.50. He expressed high satisfaction with the Devon JV, noting it continues to grow and effectively offsets cost exposures. He described it as a strong partnership that Dow looks forward to continuing.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Huntsman Corp (HUN) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Huntsman Corp (HUN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair questioned the company's debt picture, noting a net leverage ratio of around 5.5x on an annualized first-half basis, and asked if management feels a need to reduce debt. He also asked if the counter-seasonal Q1 decline in construction volumes was driven more by commercial or residential weakness.

    Answer

    CEO Peter Huntsman expressed discomfort with current margin levels, not the debt itself, stating that on a normalized EBITDA basis, the balance sheet is very strong. CFO Phil Lister reinforced this, pointing to ample liquidity and a favorable bond maturity profile in 2029, 2031, and 2034. Regarding construction, Huntsman attributed the weakness primarily to the residential side, driven more by customer buying patterns than underlying demand.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Huntsman Corp (HUN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked for the moving parts behind the $75 million headwind from equity affiliate dividends and whether the European notes would be refinanced or paid off with cash.

    Answer

    CFO Phil Lister attributed the dividend headwind to two factors: deteriorating MTBE margins and the non-recurrence of a one-off $40 million dividend from a Chinese MDI joint venture restructuring. He confirmed the European notes will be paid off with cash in Q1.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to PBF Energy Inc (PBF) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to PBF Energy Inc (PBF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for specific examples of areas where the Refining Business Improvement (RBI) program is exceeding expectations and requested clarification on the EBITDA from the logistics asset sale and PBF's share of Q1 renewable diesel EBITDA.

    Answer

    SVP Michael A. Bukowski reported that the RBI program is seeing significant opportunities in energy, turnaround performance, and strategic procurement, consistent with initial expectations. President and CEO Matthew Lucey revealed the terminals were sold for over 10x their EBITDA. CFO Karen Davis stated SBR's stand-alone EBITDA was a $17 million loss, with PBF's share being half of that.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to PBF Energy Inc (PBF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair from TPH&Co. asked for details on how to measure the $200 million RBI program savings, questioning if the $0.60/barrel figure was conservative. He also asked if PBF expects to be free cash flow positive for the year at the current strip.

    Answer

    SVP Michael Bukowski explained the savings will primarily appear in refining OpEx, with some in the capital program, and framed the target as a 'first step of a long journey.' President and CEO Matthew Lucey added that internal expectations are higher and the focus is on sustainable cuts. He also affirmed that, yes, PBF expects to be free cash flow positive at the strip.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Methanex Corp (MEOH) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to Methanex Corp (MEOH) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair sought clarification on the Q2 realized price guidance of $360-$370 per tonne, noting it seemed to imply a worsening discount rate compared to Q1. He also asked for specific figures on current MTO utilization rates versus the Q1 average.

    Answer

    Executive Rich Sumner advised that the realized price would likely be at the high end of the guided range and cautioned against reading too much into a widening discount. He stated that MTO utilization is currently around 75-80%, similar to the Q1 average, but noted it could rise above 90% as more supply becomes available in the market.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Methanex Corp (MEOH) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair inquired about any changes in how 2025 methanol contracts are being negotiated and whether discount rates are expected to increase. He also asked to confirm if there was a New Zealand gas diversion benefit in Q4 and its EBITDA impact.

    Answer

    President and CEO Rich Sumner reiterated that while the average discount rate might increase due to a sales mix shift towards the Atlantic, this reflects higher netback pricing and not worsening contract terms. He confirmed there was a Q4 gas diversion benefit in New Zealand of approximately $30 million, but noted this is offset by the lost margin from not producing methanol.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to Methanex Corp (MEOH) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the expected inventory build in Q3 due to the G3 plant start-up and whether any further G3 delay costs should be anticipated for the third quarter.

    Answer

    President and CEO Rich Sumner clarified that overall inventory levels are not expected to change significantly, but the mix will shift to more produced and less purchased product, which should benefit working capital. He confirmed there will be one month of G3 delay costs in Q3 for July, which can be estimated from the Q2 figure.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to CVR Energy Inc (CVI) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to CVR Energy Inc (CVI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the Renewable Diesel segment's EBITDA outlook for Q2 and what criteria CVR needs to meet to begin recognizing the 45Z tax credit. He also inquired about the potential for refinery M&A and industry consolidation.

    Answer

    CEO David Lamp indicated that rising RIN prices are helping renewable diesel margins in Q2. CFO Dane Neumann explained the company is not yet recognizing the 45Z production tax credit (PTC) due to a lack of clarity from the IRS on what constitutes a "qualifying sale," noting it's a conservative position. Regarding M&A, Mr. Lamp agreed that economies of scale are crucial for survival and that while CVR sees potential for consolidation, the number of suitable counterparties is limited.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to CVR Energy Inc (CVI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair questioned the drivers behind the sequential improvement in the refining capture rate in Q4, the outlook for Q1, the composition of 'other feedstocks' in the renewable diesel mix, and potential feedstock changes due to the 45Z tax credit.

    Answer

    CFO Dane Neumann attributed the Q4 capture rate improvement to strategic run cuts in December and a minor inventory benefit. For Q1, he anticipates a return to normal operations with better fixed-cost absorption if crack spreads remain elevated. CEO David Lamp explained that 'other feedstocks' consist of refinery gas streams and hydrogen. Regarding the 45Z credit, Mr. Lamp stated that while the company desires to run more low-CI corn oil, it is limited by catalyst capacity and yield penalties, adding that the 45Z credit does not fully compensate for the expiring Blender's Tax Credit.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to CVR Energy Inc (CVI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair asked about the potential for filing insurance claims to recover lost profits from operational downtime and sought clarification on whether accessing capital markets could include an equity raise. He also questioned if the gathering system would be considered a non-core asset for potential sale.

    Answer

    CEO David Lamp confirmed they have recovered some money from insurance but do not have a final amount yet. On capital markets, CFO Dane Neumann stated it was premature to discuss the specific path or magnitude of a potential capital raise. Lamp added that the gathering system is integral but could be monetized if necessary, though it would not be their first choice.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Blair of TPH asked about the potential impact of tariffs on U.S. feedstock exports, specifically questioning if U.S. ethane or propane could get backed up if exports to China are heavily tariffed.

    Answer

    CEO Peter Vanacker acknowledged the dynamic nature of trade policies and rumors of potential tariff exemptions in China for products like ethane and polyethylene. He emphasized the company's ability to navigate such volatility using its global network. EVP Kim Foley added that the current situation has kept the U.S. ethane forward curve low and noted that historically, both ethane and LPG have ended up on tariff exception lists.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) leadership

    Matthew Blair's questions to HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair inquired about the renewable diesel environment in Q1, considering various regulatory moving parts like the 45Z tax credit. He also asked for an explanation for the fourth-quarter step-up in depreciation and the lower-than-statutory tax rate.

    Answer

    EVP, Commercial Steven Ledbetter described the Q1 renewables market as volatile and uncertain due to regulatory shifts, stating the company's focus remains on optimizing feedstock and operations. CFO Atanas Atanasov explained that higher depreciation was a timing issue related to capital spending and turnarounds, while the advantaged 15% full-year tax rate was primarily due to tax credits generated by the renewables business.

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    Matthew Blair's questions to HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Blair questioned the reason for an 8% year-over-year decline in marketing volumes despite a 3% increase in site count. He also asked for expectations on refining capture rates for the fourth quarter, considering various headwinds and tailwinds.

    Answer

    EVP of Commercial Steven Ledbetter explained the volume decline was a temporary timing issue resulting from a strategy of 'high-grading' the portfolio, where lower-volume sites are replaced with higher-volume sites that take time to ramp up. Regarding Q4 capture rates, Ledbetter did not provide specific guidance but outlined key factors, including narrower heavy crude differentials, the El Dorado turnaround, potential offsets from butane blending, and a continued focus on maximizing high-value jet fuel and premium gasoline production.

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