Matthew Blair

Matthew Blair questioned the state of the polypropylene market, asking if it's weaker than polyethylene due to higher exposure to autos and construction, and which market LyondellBasell is more optimistic about for recovery in the coming years.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker explained that polypropylene demand is more tied to durable goods, which have been weak since 2021, but anticipates recovery with falling inflation and rising consumer confidence. EVP of Global Olefins and Polyolefins Kimberly Foley added that the global polypropylene cost curve is flat, leading to oversupply and exports from China and the Middle East. She believes polypropylene is at the bottom and could see a higher initial bounce than polyethylene as demand returns and rationalization occurs, particularly in polypropylene.

Matthew Blair questioned the state of the polypropylene market, asking if it is weaker than polyethylene due to higher exposure to sectors like autos and construction, and which of the two polymers LyondellBasell is more optimistic about for recovery in the coming years.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker explained that polypropylene demand is more tied to durable goods, which have been weak since 2021. He suggested that declining inflation and interest rates could improve consumer confidence, leading to recovery in PP and propylene oxide demand. EVP of Global Olefins and Polyolefins Kimberly Foley added that the global polypropylene cost curve is flat, with oversupply from the Middle East and China leading to exports. She believes PP is at the bottom and could see a higher initial bounce with demand recovery and rationalization, noting more significant rationalization activity in PP than PE.

Matthew Blair of TPH asked about the potential impact of tariffs on U.S. feedstock exports, specifically questioning if U.S. ethane or propane could get backed up if exports to China are heavily tariffed.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker acknowledged the dynamic nature of trade policies and rumors of potential tariff exemptions in China for products like ethane and polyethylene. He emphasized the company's ability to navigate such volatility using its global network. EVP Kim Foley added that the current situation has kept the U.S. ethane forward curve low and noted that historically, both ethane and LPG have ended up on tariff exception lists.

Matthew Blair circled back to the mention of higher energy costs on slide 9, asking if this was due to rolling into a new year or a change in Olin's overall hedging strategy, given its usual practice of hedging.

Answer

Todd Slater, Olin's CFO, confirmed that Olin continues to hedge heavily one quarter out on a rolling four-quarter basis. He explained that higher natural gas and power costs were anticipated based on existing hedges, but these were exacerbated by the unhedged component due to the January spike in gas prices associated with the winter storm.

Matthew Blair asked for clarification on the mention of higher energy costs on slide 9, specifically whether it's a function of rolling into a new year or a change in Olin's overall hedging strategy.

Answer

Todd Slater, Olin's CFO, confirmed that Olin continues its hedging strategy, typically hedging one quarter out on a rolling four-quarter basis. He explained that while hedges were in place, the spike in natural gas prices in January due to the winter storm exacerbated the unhedged component, leading to higher overall natural gas and power costs.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked about Olin's current utilization rates for EDC and requested an updated sensitivity for EBITDA for every one-cent change in EDC pricing.

Answer

President and CEO Ken Lane did not provide a specific EBITDA sensitivity but reiterated that Olin is the most advantaged producer and will operate its assets to maximize value. He noted that Q2 utilization rates were lower due to planned turnarounds and are expected to increase in Q3, but emphasized that the company's focus remains on value generation rather than operating rates.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked about the divergence between rising U.S. spot caustic prices and recent price drops in Southeast Asia, questioning what is driving the delta and if the falling Asian values are a concern.

Answer

President and CEO Kenneth Lane acknowledged Olin is watching the Asian market closely but does not see it as a concern. He stated that U.S. price increases are firming, partly due to the pass-through of tariffs on imports to the West Coast. He reiterated a constructive outlook for caustic soda in the Americas, Olin's primary market, citing continued strength in the U.S. and Latin America.

Matthew Blair requested an update and ranking of Olin's potential growth projects, including the Radford AMMO bid, a California bleach plant, and a Quebec plant expansion.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Lane identified the Radford bid as a priority due to its capital-light nature. He described the other two projects as attractive but stated that decisions would be phased according to Olin's capital allocation framework and return hurdles. He did not provide a definitive priority ranking between the two capital-intensive projects.

Matthew Blair asked about Dow's outlook for feedstock costs for its U.S. cracking business, specifically if ethane prices might rise later in 2026 due to new Permian natural gas pipelines. He also questioned the long-term availability and pricing for natural gas and ethane given competing demand from AI and LNG.

Answer

Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, expressed confidence in America's natural gas production capability to meet rising demand from AI and tech, which will also drive NGL production. He noted an 8% growth in fractionation capacity by late 2026/2027, ensuring ethane availability. He also mentioned watching LNG exports and the quick clearing of natural gas market spikes.

Matthew Blair inquired about Dow's outlook for U.S. cracking business feedstock costs, specifically addressing concerns about potential ethane price increases in late 2026 due to new Permian natural gas pipelines. He also asked about the long-term availability and pricing of natural gas and ethane, considering competing demands from AI and LNG exports.

Answer

Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, expressed confidence in the long-term availability and pricing of natural gas and ethane, noting that increased electricity demand from AI will drive natural gas production, leading to more NGL extraction. He highlighted an 8% growth in fractionation capacity by late 2026/2027 and a stable NGL price outlook. Fitterling also mentioned monitoring LNG export capacity and approvals, attributing recent short-term price spikes to weather-related supply disruptions that are expected to normalize.

Matthew Blair inquired about the impact of tariff-driven reductions in Chinese MDI imports on U.S. MDI margins. He also asked if lower interest rates were visibly stimulating the construction market and for commentary on the relative performance of Dow's polyols versus isocyanates businesses.

Answer

COO Karen S. Carter noted that while mortgage rates have eased, they need to drop further (to a 'five-handle') for a significant construction market recovery. She highlighted encouraging preliminary findings from the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding MDI dumping by Chinese producers, which has led to a quick dissipation of Chinese imports and some additional volume for Dow, though not yet significant pricing power. The relative strength of polyols vs. isocyanates was not explicitly detailed.

Matthew Blair inquired about the benefits to U.S. MDI margins resulting from tariff impacts that have reduced imports from China. He also asked about the current state of recovery in the construction end market despite lower interest rates, and for commentary on the relative strength of Dow's polyols versus isocyanates businesses.

Answer

Karen S. Carter, Chief Operating Officer, noted that the U.S. Department of Commerce's preliminary finding of MDI dumping by Chinese producers has led to a rapid dissipation of Chinese imports, which previously accounted for 20% of the U.S. MDI market. This has resulted in some additional volume for Dow, though not yet significant pricing power. For the construction market, she stated that interest rates need to fall further (to a 'five-handle') for a meaningful recovery. No specific commentary was provided on the relative strength of polyols versus isocyanates.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the intended use of cash saved from the dividend cut, questioning if it would support the balance sheet now and be allocated to organic growth or share buybacks in a mid-cycle environment.

Answer

CEO Jim Fitterling clarified the immediate goal is to maintain cash flexibility through the cycle's trough, not to fund new CapEx. This flexibility could allow for actions like share buybacks when conditions are right. CFO Jeff Tate added that the focus is on balance sheet strength in the near term, while ensuring they can fund value-creating opportunities in the medium to long term, supported by a strong debt maturity profile.

Matthew Blair asked about the security of the dividend in the current environment, considering the incoming cash from asset sales, cost reductions, and lower capital spending.

Answer

Chair and CEO James Fitterling reiterated that an attractive dividend is a priority and that the nearly $6 billion in near-term cash actions will help support it. However, he cautioned that the company must continue to monitor the evolving macroeconomic landscape, especially regarding tariffs, and will manage its capital allocation framework accordingly, noting customer uncertainty is currently impacting visibility.

Matthew Blair asked for an outlook on the U.S. ethane market, whether current frac spreads are temporary or structural, and about the potential for an offset from the Devon JV and any appetite to expand it.

Answer

James Fitterling, Chair and CEO, projected a Q4 ethane price range of $0.19-$0.23 and expects frac spreads to remain at or below $0.50. He expressed high satisfaction with the Devon JV, noting it continues to grow and effectively offsets cost exposures. He described it as a strong partnership that Dow looks forward to continuing.

Matthew Blair asked about the lower-than-expected Washington capture in Q3, specifically if it was due to jet versus diesel dynamics, and the expected turnaround schedule for 2026, including timing and capital costs for Washington, Hawaii, and Wyoming.

Answer

Shawn Flores, SVP and CFO, confirmed that jet-to-diesel spreads in the Pacific Northwest, which were north of $20 per barrel, significantly impacted Washington's Q3 capture by an estimated 15%, but these spreads have since compressed. Will Monteleone, President and CEO, stated that a Hawaii turnaround is planned for 2026, along with a small planned outage in Washington to address crude unit inefficiencies, while the Wyoming turnaround has been deferred. Capital requirements for these activities will be disclosed in December.

Matthew Blair from TPH&Co inquired about the key drivers behind the strong Q2 margin capture rates in Hawaii and sought details on the new SAF joint venture, including its origin, benefits, and the expected timeline for EBITDA contribution.

Answer

SVP & CFO Shawn Flores attributed the 119% Hawaii capture rate (125% adjusted) to elevated clean product freight rates and improved yields from record throughput. President & CEO Will Monteleone added that the record throughput resulted from 18 months of de-constraining efforts. Regarding the SAF JV, Monteleone highlighted the project's attractive economics and the strategic value of partnering with Mitsubishi and INEOS for global scale. He anticipates the project will start up in H2 2025, with financial contributions beginning in 2026.

Matthew Blair from TPH&Co inquired about the drivers behind Hawaii's strong Q2 capture rate and sought details on the new SAF joint venture, including its origin, benefits, and expected timeline for EBITDA contribution.

Answer

SVP & CFO Sean Flores attributed the high 119% capture rate to elevated clean product freight rates and improved yields from record throughput. President & CEO Will Monteleone added that the record throughput resulted from 18 months of de-constraining efforts. Regarding the JV, Monteleone highlighted the project's attractive operating costs and logistics, noting the partnership with Mitsubishi and INEOS expands distribution capabilities. He projected a second-half 2025 startup, with financial contributions beginning in 2026.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the factors that enabled the Wyoming refinery to restart a month ahead of schedule and the drivers behind the current tight heavy Canadian crude discounts.

Answer

EVP of Refining and Logistics Richard Creamer credited the efficient, collaborative effort of the Wyoming team and third-party contractors. President and CEO Will Monteleone added that the team's swift action in cold weather prevented further damage. Regarding crude, Monteleone explained that excess pipeline capacity out of Canada has tightened the market, a situation he expects to persist until production increases to absorb the capacity.

Matthew Blair asked about Par Pacific's capital allocation strategy, specifically the balance between share repurchases and debt reduction following the new $250 million authorization. He also inquired about the company's confidence in its Hawaii SAF project, given recent industry-wide cancellations, and the expected sales mix between long-term contracts and spot sales.

Answer

President and CEO William Monteleone explained that the share repurchase reauthorization provides additional capacity and their approach will remain dynamic, balancing buybacks with maintaining a comfortable liquidity cushion. Regarding the SAF project, Mr. Monteleone highlighted its competitive advantages, including low operating costs as an 'inside the fence' project, superior logistics, and a low capital cost of $92 million. He noted this provides commercial flexibility to sell into the West Coast or to airlines in the Asia Pacific market.

Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for specifics on the planned $30-40 million operating expense reduction for 2025 and questioned the long-term strategic outlook for the Washington (Tacoma) refinery given recent market pressures.

Answer

President and CEO William Monteleone explained that the OpEx savings will come from two main areas: roughly half from corporate expense reduction via IT system consolidation post-Billings acquisition, and the other half from refining and logistics costs. For the Washington refinery, Monteleone emphasized its competitive advantages, including a low operating cost structure and favorable feedstock sourcing, which position it to endure low-margin cycles and capture upside during market rationalization.

Matthew Blair asked for Marathon Petroleum's outlook on the Renewable Diesel (RD) market, specifically if they are considering shutting their California RD asset given current losses, and sought an explanation for why D4 RINs are not stronger despite apparent supply/demand shortages and low utilization. He also inquired about crude dips, particularly favorable dynamics in WCS and Syncrude, and wider moves in ANS and Bakken in Q4, asking if this would be an additional capture tailwind.

Answer

CEO Maryann Mannen stated that MPC is not putting new capital into RD, focusing on efficient operations amid regulatory uncertainty and headwinds like feedstock costs. CFO John Quaid added that RD margins improved in Q4, but clarity is expected in 2026. CCO Rick Hessling explained ANS widening due to TMX and closures, and Bakken/Syncrude due to stronger production. John Quaid clarified that crude dips are already included in their blended crack numbers and thus would drive margin but not be an additional capture tailwind.

Matthew Blair asked for Marathon Petroleum's outlook on the Renewable Diesel (RD) market, specifically if they are considering shutting down their California RD asset given current losses, and sought an explanation for why D4 RINs levels are not stronger despite apparent supply shortages and economic run cuts. He also inquired about the favorable dynamics in crude differentials (ANS, Bakken, Syncrude) and if these would be an additional tailwind for capture in Q4.

Answer

CEO Maryann Mannen stated that MPC's only RD investment focus is reliability, not new capital, due to regulatory uncertainty and margin headwinds from feedstock costs. CFO John Quaid added that RD margins are improving in Q4, but clarity is needed in 2026, and MPC will optimize existing assets. On crude differentials, CCO Rick Hessling explained that ANS differentials widened due to TMX barrels and refinery closures, while Bakken and Syncrude production are driving wider differentials. John Quaid clarified that these crude differentials are already included in MPC's blended crack numbers and market metrics, so they drive margin but are not an *additional* capture tailwind.

Matthew Blair asked about the sustainability of recent strength in diesel cracks and the strategic rationale for divesting the company's stake in its ethanol joint venture.

Answer

CCO Rick Hessling stated that strong diesel cracks are supported by low inventories and robust demand, and he expects this to persist through year-end. CEO Maryann Mannen explained the ethanol divestiture was driven by a compelling valuation and diverging strategic goals with their partner, noting no commercial impact as MPC remains the largest ethanol blender.

Matthew Blair asked about the renewable diesel business, questioning the feedstock mix and whether the segment was on track for positive EBITDA in Q2. He also inquired about the outlook for the RVO and the implementation timing for new California LCFS targets.

Answer

CFO John Quaid and CEO Maryann Mannen emphasized a focus on optimizing feedstock via the new pretreat unit and their Neste JV, but declined to forecast Q2 profitability. Executive James Wilkins addressed the regulatory questions, stating there is still uncertainty on the LCFS timeline but that more clarity is expected by the end of June, with a potential effective date ranging from Q2 2025 to 2026.

Matthew Blair asked for a comparison of refined product demand trends between the U.S. and overseas export markets, with a focus on gasoline versus diesel. He also questioned how potential regulatory changes might alter the company's Renewable Diesel feedstock strategy, particularly concerning vegetable oils and imported used cooking oil.

Answer

Executive Rick Hessling noted significant demand signals from Latin America and Europe, with growth being more robust than seen in a while, and highlighted a particular uplift in gasoline export demand. Regarding feedstocks, Hessling explained the strategy is to maximize low-carbon-intensity stocks, which aligns well with potential regulatory frameworks. CEO Maryann Mannen added that reaching full nameplate capacity at Martinez enhances their ability to optimize feedstocks through their partnership with Neste, which is a key value driver for 2025.

Matthew Blair asked how Westlake is responding to affordability issues in the U.S. housing market, specifically whether it's introducing more low-cost products or changing raw materials.

Answer

Steve Bender (EVP and CFO) explained that Westlake's HIP businesses offer a 'good, better, best' range of products, which allows them to effectively address affordability issues for homebuilders. He cited the product mix shift observed in Q3 2025 as an example of this strategy in action.

Matthew Blair asked about Westlake's perspective on operating rates in polyethylene, noting that the industry seems to be running hot, causing product to back up domestically, and how this affects Westlake's own utilization rates. He also asked how Westlake is responding to affordability issues in the U.S. housing market, specifically if it's introducing more low-cost products or changing raw materials, or if its strategy remains unchanged. Additionally, he inquired about the decision to re-up the ethylene supply agreement with the MLP, questioning if it raises costs during a tough margin period or preserves optionality.

Answer

Steven Bender, EVP and CFO, stated that Westlake operates its polyethylene plants to create value, with its operating rates for the year expected to be slightly lower than the industry average (mid-80s to low-80s) due to Q3 planned maintenance, and will adjust rates as needed. For housing affordability, Mr. Bender explained that HIP offers a 'good, better, best' product range, allowing for product mix shifts to address builder needs, as seen in Q3. Regarding the MLP ethylene agreement, he clarified that the extension reflects the original 2014 construct, providing market pricing today with no significant give-up for either the C Corp or the partnership.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked for an overview of the global supply-demand outlook for PVC, including new capacity additions and operating rates in China. He also questioned if the significant year-to-date use of working capital would reverse in the second half of the year.

Answer

EVP & CFO Steven Bender noted that significant new PVC capacity is not expected in 2025 and that some Asian producers are operating at a loss, leading to discussions of rationalization. He also confirmed that the working capital use in the first half, driven by payables for turnarounds and higher receivables, is expected to reverse in the second half of 2025.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. inquired about the M&A pipeline and whether the current market weakness is creating acquisition opportunities. He also asked for commentary on any differing trends between residential and commercial construction.

Answer

M. Bender, EVP and CFO, confirmed that acquisitions remain an important growth element and that good opportunities can arise in markets like this. He noted Westlake's strong balance sheet allows it to act on them. He declined to comment on the commercial market, stating Westlake's focus is residential, where their outlook is for starts around 1.3 million, consistent with industry forecasts.

Matthew Blair inquired about the M&A landscape, capital deployment priorities, and whether Westlake is more interested in PEM or HIP assets. He also asked about the likelihood of Q1 2025 HIP EBITDA margins exceeding the full-year guidance.

Answer

EVP and CFO Steve Bender said Westlake evaluates opportunities in both segments but leans toward HIP for near-term cash flow generation, noting constructive dialogue with asset owners. Regarding Q1 margins, he stated that while the outlook is positive, performance is highly dependent on the weather's impact on the start of the construction season, making it difficult to predict relative to full-year guidance.

Matthew Blair asked about the eligibility of Parco, Tulsa, and Artesia refineries for SREs, given their size, and if HF Sinclair plans to run them at lower utilization. He also questioned the confidence in Puget Sound Refinery investments (CARB, jet project) for long-term product supply to California.

Answer

Tim Go, CEO, clarified that Parco is close to the 75,000 bbl/day threshold and utilization would be a factor, while Tulsa and Artesia are two physically separate refineries, similar to others that received SREs. Steve Ledbetter, EVP of Commercial, highlighted Puget Sound's dock capability and the projects' flexibility to meet market demands (CARB gasoline, diesel to jet swing) and export opportunities. Tim Go emphasized these are small, flexible projects within growth capital guidance, designed to take advantage of market dynamics and arbitrage opportunities.

Matthew Blair asked about the eligibility of Parco, Tulsa, and Artesia refineries for SREs given their capacity, and the confidence in long-term investments at the Puget Sound Refinery.

Answer

Tim Go, CEO, clarified that Parco is near 75k bpd, and Tulsa and Artesia are two physically separate refineries, similar to others that received SREs. Steve Ledbetter, EVP of Commercial, and Tim Go, CEO, emphasized the Puget Sound investments are small capital projects focused on flexibility to meet market demands (CARB gasoline, jet/diesel swing) and leverage dock capabilities for accretive long-term adjustments.

Matthew Blair inquired about the renewable diesel environment in Q1, considering various regulatory moving parts like the 45Z tax credit. He also asked for an explanation for the fourth-quarter step-up in depreciation and the lower-than-statutory tax rate.

Answer

EVP, Commercial Steven Ledbetter described the Q1 renewables market as volatile and uncertain due to regulatory shifts, stating the company's focus remains on optimizing feedstock and operations. CFO Atanas Atanasov explained that higher depreciation was a timing issue related to capital spending and turnarounds, while the advantaged 15% full-year tax rate was primarily due to tax credits generated by the renewables business.

Matthew Blair questioned the reason for an 8% year-over-year decline in marketing volumes despite a 3% increase in site count. He also asked for expectations on refining capture rates for the fourth quarter, considering various headwinds and tailwinds.

Answer

EVP of Commercial Steven Ledbetter explained the volume decline was a temporary timing issue resulting from a strategy of 'high-grading' the portfolio, where lower-volume sites are replaced with higher-volume sites that take time to ramp up. Regarding Q4 capture rates, Ledbetter did not provide specific guidance but outlined key factors, including narrower heavy crude differentials, the El Dorado turnaround, potential offsets from butane blending, and a continued focus on maximizing high-value jet fuel and premium gasoline production.

Matthew Blair followed up on the new product pipelines headed west, asking about their implications for Valero's Wilmington refinery, particularly if an additional 200,000 barrels per day entering the Los Angeles market would impact Wilmington's competitiveness.

Answer

Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and COO, stated that the California market is currently set by import parity. He believes that import parity via pipeline would not be significantly different from waterborne import parity, suggesting minimal change to the California market as a result of the pipelines.

Matthew Blair asked about Diamond Green Diesel's (DGD) performance in Q4, specifically if the indicated margin improvement is being realized or if other factors like hedging, feedstock lag, or SAF credits are at play. He also inquired about the implications of new product pipelines heading west for Valero's Wilmington refinery, considering a potential shift in California's supply-demand balance with increased product inflows.

Answer

Lane Riggs, Chairman, CEO and President, stated that DGD's Q4 improvement is largely tied to lower feedstock prices due to rationalization, enhancing profitability, and noted strong SAF benefits. He highlighted that while Q4 looks good, the outlook for 2026 depends on SAF premiums covering PTC loss and the RVO's impact. Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and COO, explained that the California market is set by import parity, and he doesn't expect new pipelines to significantly alter market dynamics, as pipeline tariffs are not anticipated to be substantially different from waterborne import parity.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the drivers of strong Q2 results in the North Atlantic region and questioned the likelihood and impact of the proposed SRE reallocation in the RVO.

Answer

VP Greg Bram credited the North Atlantic's strong performance to solid commercial margins and good operations at the Pembroke refinery, as maintenance primarily impacted throughput at Quebec. EVP Rich Walsh expressed skepticism that the SRE reallocation will proceed, arguing it would be legally challenging for small refiners to prove the required economic harm.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the factors driving the strong Q2 results in the North Atlantic region, which improved despite maintenance and tighter Syncrude differentials. He also questioned the likelihood of the proposed SRE reallocation in the RVO and whether those costs could be passed through to consumers.

Answer

VP of Refining Services Greg Bram credited the strong North Atlantic performance to robust commercial margins and excellent operational execution at the Pembroke refinery, which offset maintenance impacts at Quebec. EVP & General Counsel Rich Walsh expressed skepticism that many SREs would be granted due to the high legal standard, and suggested the EPA will likely need to revise its RVO proposal to make it realistic.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the potential for a nationwide E15 mandate and whether to expect a sequential improvement in refining capture rates for the second quarter.

Answer

Eric Fisher, EVP of Commercial, stated he does not see momentum for a nationwide E15 standard due to supply chain complexities and insufficient ethanol production. An executive named Greg cautioned that while maintenance impacts might lessen, the seasonal removal of butane from gasoline typically works against Q2 capture rates.

Matthew Blair asked for Valero's take on the momentum for nationwide E15 implementation and whether to expect a quarter-over-quarter improvement in refining capture rates for Q2.

Answer

Eric Fisher, an executive, expressed skepticism about nationwide E15, citing supply chain complexity and insufficient U.S. ethanol production capacity to meet such a mandate. An executive named Greg addressed capture rates, stating it's hard to predict due to multiple factors, but noted that the seasonal removal of butane from the gasoline pool typically works against capture rates in the summer.

Matthew Blair questioned the potential impact of Canadian tariffs on Valero's product side, specifically for the Quebec City refinery. He also asked if the new 45V credit would affect DGD's use of imported used cooking oil (UCO).

Answer

Gary Simmons, EVP and COO, stated he does not expect a throughput reduction at Quebec, as any displaced diesel volumes can be sold globally. An executive clarified that imported UCO has always been intended for SAF production for the European market, so the new U.S. tax credit policy does not change their strategy for that feedstock.

Matthew Blair of TPH inquired about the record-high Q4 ethanol volume guidance amid weak margins and asked if the potential for rising global tariffs is a concern.

Answer

Executive Eric Fisher explained the high ethanol run rates are supported by expanded production capacity and growing export markets, driven by attractive U.S. corn prices and increasing global mandates. On tariffs, executive Richard Walsh expressed low concern, noting that energy is not typically a target for such tariffs as most countries want to avoid raising their energy costs.

Matthew Blair inquired about the feedstock mix at DGD, specifically if there has been a shift towards more vegetable oil given indicator margins, or if it remains primarily low Carbon Intensity Pathways (CIPs). He also asked for clarification on Darling's financial contributions to DGD.

Answer

Robert Day (CFO) and Randall Stuewe (CEO) confirmed that DGD has not materially shifted its feedstock mix, with DGD1 still down. They prioritize maximizing EUCO, yellow grease, and animal fats, and have redomesticated their supply chain. Robert Day (CFO) explained that contributions to DGD are due to timing, catalyst turnarounds, margin structure, and the fact that PTC revenue flows directly to partners, not DGD itself, alongside higher maintenance CapEx in 2025.

Matthew Blair asked about DGD's feedstock mix, specifically if there has been a shift towards vegetable oil given better indicator margins for RD made from it. He also inquired about the reasons behind Darling's contributions to DGD.

Answer

CFO Bob Day stated that DGD hasn't materially shifted its mix, with DGD1 still down, and the best margins are from UCO, yellow grease, and animal fats. CEO Randall Stuewe added that DGD is now heavily reliant on Darling's supply of these low-CI feedstocks. Day explained that contributions to DGD are due to timing, three catalyst turnarounds in 2025, higher maintenance CapEx, and PTC revenue flowing directly to partners rather than staying within DGD.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked for more detail on the scientific results of the NexTyta glucose control product and its potential EBITDA contribution timeline, as well as the outlook for Darling's rendering business in Brazil.

Answer

CFO Robert Day stated that NexTyta trials show it stimulates GLP-1 secretion and could have a material EBITDA impact in 2026, pending CPG adoption. CEO Randall Stuewe called it 'hydrolyzed collagen 2.0' with significant long-term potential. Regarding Brazil, Stuewe noted the business is performing well with ample raw material and that its strong domestic biofuel market can absorb local fat production, mitigating export pressures.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the implementation timing for new LCFS standards in California and sought to clarify the difference in reported Q1 DGD EBITDA between Darling and its partner, Valero.

Answer

An executive expressed optimism that the new LCFS standards are on track for a definitive announcement soon, with a worst-case implementation date of January 1, 2026. CFO Bob Day clarified that the significant difference in reported DGD EBITDA has 'nothing to do with recognition of 45Z' and is instead due to different accounting treatments for Lower of Cost or Market (LCM) adjustments, which were particularly volatile in Q1.

Matthew Blair asked for the key drivers behind the core business growth implied in the 2025 guidance and inquired about the company's debt reduction targets for 2025 and 2026.

Answer

CEO Randall Stuewe cited procurement improvements, rising fat prices, and strong global protein demand as key growth drivers for 2025. Retiring CFO Brad Phillips outlined a debt reduction target of $350 million to $500 million for 2025, with the ultimate goal of reaching a 2.5x bank leverage ratio.

Matthew Blair asked about the market for renewable diesel exports as a potential source of Q4 improvement and inquired if there was any atypical feedstock switching at DGD during Q3, such as increased use of soybean oil.

Answer

COO Matt Jansen stated that sales decisions are based on the best economics and that DGD is well-positioned to capitalize on improving export markets. He and CEO Randall C. Stuewe confirmed there was no unusual feedstock switching in Q3, emphasizing that DGD's slate is heavily weighted towards animal fats and used cooking oil to optimize CI scores.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the sales mix within the automotive sector, specifically whether the historical tailwinds from growth in hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs) are continuing or reversing.

Answer

CEO & President Scott A. Richardson stated there has not been a big reversal, though the pullback in China has slightly lowered the global EV sales mix. He affirmed that EVs are here to stay, especially in Europe, and that the company's product portfolio is well-positioned for future EV models. He noted the US market will likely be a mix of ICE, hybrid, and electric.

Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the sales mix within the weakening automotive market and whether the historical tailwinds from hybrids and EVs are still present.

Answer

CEO & President Scott A. Richardson confirmed that the company is not seeing a major reversal of EV and hybrid tailwinds. He noted that while the pullback in China has slightly lowered the global EV sales mix temporarily, electric vehicles are here to stay. He anticipates that future model launches in Europe will be critical and that the U.S. market will feature a flexible mix of ICE, hybrid, and electric vehicles, for which the company's portfolio is well-positioned.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the product mix within the weakening automotive market, specifically whether the historical tailwinds from hybrids and EVs are still present or beginning to reverse.

Answer

CEO Scott A. Richardson responded that they are not seeing a significant reversal of the EV and hybrid tailwinds, although a pullback in China has slightly lessened the immediate impact from EVs. He affirmed that electric vehicles are 'here to stay,' especially in Europe, and that the company's portfolio is well-positioned. He noted the U.S. market will likely be a changing mix of ICE, hybrid, and EV, requiring flexibility.

Matthew Blair asked for help reconciling strong March/April industry data for autos and durables, which some feared was a tariff-related pull-forward, with Celanese's commentary that demand was holding steady into May.

Answer

CEO Scott Richardson acknowledged the market uncertainty, suggesting the strong demand could be a rebalancing and restocking of the value chain rather than a simple pre-buy ahead of tariffs. While he stressed that the second-half demand outlook remains uncertain and June orders are not yet clear, he noted that customers are not currently signaling a significant drop-off.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. inquired about the potential scope of asset divestitures, asking about targeted segments and regions, and requested an update on the European auto market.

Answer

CEO Lori Ryerkerk explained that the company's divestiture review is broad and not limited to a specific segment or region, focusing on assets more valuable to another owner. COO Scott Richardson noted that the latest European auto data has been incorporated into the company's Q4 guidance.

Matthew Blair asked for a quantification of the hedging benefit in Q2 and for details on the company's hedging levels and expected EBITDA contribution for Q3.

Answer

SVP, Head of Trading & Commercial Operations, Imre Havasi stated there was a small hedging benefit in Q2, aided by an unsold corn oil position. For Q3, he revealed the company is approximately 65% crushed, having aggressively hedged as margins improved to lock in attractive levels for a significant portion of the quarter.

Matthew Blair asked for a quantification of the hedging benefit in Q2 and for details on hedging levels and the expected EBITDA contribution for Q3.

Answer

SVP, Head of Trading & Commercial Operations, Imre Havasi, stated that the Q2 hedging benefit was small, as volumes were low due to unattractive margins, though an unsold corn oil position helped. For Q3, he noted the company has been more aggressive, with about 65% of the crush hedged at attractive levels as margins improved, providing good visibility for the quarter.

Matthew Blair requested more details on the noncore asset sales, including the scale and type of assets being considered. He also asked for clarification on the company's statement about being 'EBITDA-positive for the remainder of the year,' questioning if it applied to each quarter and its basis in hedges versus market futures.

Answer

Executive Phil Boggs explained that noncore assets include working capital and equipment from closed businesses and various smaller joint ventures, with the goal of narrowing the company's focus. Michelle Mapes, Interim Principal Executive Officer, confirmed the positive-EBITDA outlook applies on a quarter-by-quarter basis and is driven by cost cuts, risk management, and market conditions. Imre Havasi, SVP of Trading, added that most current hedges are for Q2, leaving Q3 and Q4 largely open to market conditions.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. inquired about the company's confidence that the 45Z tax credit will not be repealed, its strategy for monetizing these credits, and whether current weak ethanol margins are a supply-side issue.

Answer

Todd Becker, President and CEO, expressed confidence that 45Z will hold due to strong bipartisan Midwest support and significant deployed capital. He stated that monetizing the tax credits won't be an issue due to active markets and the ability to offset future tax liabilities. He agreed that current margin pressure is largely supply-driven and expects seasonal factors to help rebalance the market.

Matthew Blair inquired about the perceived election risk to IRA tax credits like 45Z and 45Q. He also asked about the expected capacity increase from upgrades at the Mount Vernon and Obion plants.

Answer

Executive Devin Mogler and CEO Todd Becker expressed confidence in the bipartisan support for 45Z. Becker added that even in a worst-case scenario, the 45Q credit is a separate, long-term program that still makes the project highly profitable. He confirmed the Mount Vernon and Obion upgrades should add a combined 40-50 million gallons of annual capacity.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked about the potential EBITDA impact from the recent CARB approval for seven dairies given rising LCFS prices, and inquired about the outlook for D3 RIN demand, specifically if the EPA might revise its 2026-2027 RVOs upward.

Answer

Todd Waltz, Executive VP & CFO, explained that the financial impact of LCFS credits is directly correlated to their market price and noted four more dairy pathways are pending approval. He and Andy Foster, EVP - North America, stated that the biofuels industry universally believes the D3 RIN mandate is understated and that Aemetis is formally commenting to the EPA to advocate for production-based calculations as required by law.

Matthew Blair requested more detail on the drivers of the negative Q4 EBITDA, the outlook for ethanol fundamentals in Q1, and expectations for the federal D3 RVO (Renewable Volume Obligation) going forward.

Answer

CEO Eric McAfee and President of Advanced Fuels Andy Foster attributed the weak Q4 to ethanol oversupply and high corn prices, noting Q1 should be slightly better due to operational changes like slowing the plant's grind. McAfee expressed significant cynicism regarding the EPA's management of the D3 RVO, stating recent actions have suppressed the market and investment signals, and he does not expect a recovery until the administration changes its approach.

Matthew Blair asked if the new India biodiesel contract would have similar volumes and profitability as the last one, and whether the segment's contribution would decrease in the fourth quarter.

Answer

Eric McAfee, Founder, Chairman, and CEO, indicated that new contract volumes would differ from last year due to capacity expansion in a growing market. He confirmed that the fourth quarter would be weaker, not due to feedstocks, but because of administrative delays in the contract start date, which will push some volume recognition into the following year.

Matthew Blair of TPH inquired about the long-term operating expense target for the Dairy RNG segment, asking if the recent $29-$30 per MMBtu range is sustainable, and questioned if the California ethanol segment is on track for an EBITDA-positive second quarter.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Eric McAfee responded that Dairy RNG OpEx per MMBtu is expected to decrease dramatically. He explained current costs are elevated due to startup-phase dairies not yet producing MMBtus and seasonal winter effects. As production scales and more digesters come online, OpEx will fall. Regarding ethanol, McAfee noted positive trends from seasonality and the recent E15 summer waiver approval, which should strengthen margins, but did not explicitly commit to a Q2 EBITDA-positive result.

Matthew Blair asked about signs of tightening in the downstream refueling market and the reasons for the step-up in the baseline fueling margin. He also inquired why the raised guidance implies a softer second half of the year.

Answer

CFO Robert Vreeland clarified that the margin improvement is not from market 'tightness' but from higher fuel volumes at their stations and a favorable commodity spread between oil and natural gas. Regarding the guidance, Vreeland explained that the implied softer second half reflects general caution around the pace of new vehicle adoption, environmental credit volatility, and the ongoing ramp-up of new dairy projects.

Matthew Blair asked for the drivers behind the strong Q1 results despite lower RNG volumes and RIN revenue, and questioned if a tightening RNG dispensing market was a contributing factor.

Answer

Executive Robert Vreeland attributed the strong quarter to robust core fueling margins, effective pricing, a favorable oil-to-gas spread, and better-than-expected LCFS credit performance. President and CEO Andrew Littlefair added that strong trucking volumes, particularly from Amazon, also contributed. Both executives confirmed that a tightening dispensing market is beginning to play a role, putting Clean Energy in a strong negotiating position.

Matthew Blair inquired about the unit economics of the X15N engine, specifically its price premium and payback period for a user. He also asked if the six operating dairy RNG plants have approved LCFS pathways and how that affects the 2025 EBITDA guidance.

Answer

President and CEO Andrew Littlefair explained that with a target incremental price of around $75,000 for the X15N and its fuel system, fleets can achieve a payback period of about two years. Executive Robert Vreeland clarified that the six operating dairy plants have temporary LCFS pathways and are awaiting provisional ones, which impacts the value they can currently realize and contributes to the segment's negative EBITDA outlook for 2025.

Matthew Blair sought clarification on the 2025 RNG production guidance, asking if it was a gross or net figure, and inquired about the timing of LCFS credit monetization and the potential payback period for customers purchasing trucks with the X15N engine.

Answer

Executive Robert Vreeland clarified the 4-6 million gallon RNG production guidance for 2025 is a gross figure from the projects. He confirmed they expect to receive California LCFS credits for that production in 2025. On the X15N payback, Vreeland adjusted the assumptions, suggesting a higher incremental truck cost (around $75,000) but also a greater potential fuel savings (closer to $1.50/gallon), noting the company strives for a sub-two-year payback to drive customer adoption.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co asked for details on the Q2 Amsty outage, its financial impact, and whether the full-year guidance assumes a reversal of timing headwinds.

Answer

President & CEO Frank Bozich and EVP & CFO David Stasse clarified the Amsty issue was a styrene plant outage with a $5 million impact on Q2 equity income, with a similar impact expected in Q3. Stasse confirmed the full-year 2025 guidance assumes flat net timing for the second half and does not include a reversal of Q2's unfavorable timing.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for details on AmSty's Q1 performance, including timing issues and outages, and requested an update on the asset's sale process. He also inquired about the growth opportunity in battery binders.

Answer

CEO Frank Bozich confirmed Trinseo is committed to monetizing AmSty but will wait for an optimal valuation environment. He also detailed the battery binders opportunity, highlighting their latex binder technology for lithium-ion anodes and a global footprint advantage. CFO David Stasse explained AmSty's weak Q1 was due to a ~$10 million negative impact from benzene price timing and a minor turnaround, but expects significantly better Q2 results.

Matthew Blair asked about the Q1 guidance, specifically the impact of rising European natural gas prices, the company's 2025 hedging strategy, and the sustainability of the 61% volume growth in consumer electronics.

Answer

CEO Frank Bozich confirmed a Q1 pricing lag due to natural gas cost increases, primarily in the Engineered Materials (EM) segment. CFO David Stasse added that short-term hedges cover less than 50% of Q1 exposure, with caution on long-term hedges. Bozich attributed the strong consumer electronics volume to a low 2023 base and successful customer diversification into bespoke, high-recycled-content products, suggesting resilience.

Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. requested a detailed explanation for the Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance, seeking to understand the drivers of the sequential decline beyond typical seasonality. He also asked for an outlook on 2025 free cash flow, specifically regarding restructuring costs and other key financial levers.

Answer

CFO David Stasse provided a bridge for the Q4 guidance, attributing the ~$30 million sequential decline (adjusted for the AmSty recovery) to two main factors: about half from fixed cost under-absorption due to planned shutdowns and inventory reduction, and the remainder from lower seasonal volume and margin. He also noted a potential $5 million negative timing impact. For 2025, Stasse projected restructuring costs similar to 2024's $45 million, putting the free cash flow breakeven EBITDA in the low $300 million range, with potential upside from lower cash interest due to falling rates.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. questioned the Q3 outlook for the Supply and Marketing segment, asking if its strong Q2 performance would continue. He also sought clarity on the most likely options and timeline for the sum-of-the-parts monetization, particularly the economic separation of DKL.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq attributed the strong Supply and Marketing performance to EOP efforts, improved logistics, and new long-term contracts, noting Q2 also benefited from seasonality. EVP Mohit Bhardwaj elaborated that the strategy focuses on wholesale, asphalt, and supply. On the SOTP strategy, Soreq confirmed they are actively working on steps, highlighting past successes like the retail sale and the growth and increased independence of DKL, and pointed to recent high-valuation transactions of similar midstream assets as evidence of DKL's intrinsic value.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. questioned the performance trends in the supply and marketing segment for the third quarter and whether a positive EBITDA contribution is likely. He followed up by asking about the sum-of-the-parts monetization strategy, seeking clarity on the most probable options and the timeline for an economic separation of Delek Logistics Partners (DKL).

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq explained that improvements in supply and marketing are a core part of the EOP, driven by better logistics and new long-term contracts. Mohit Bhardwaj, EVP of Strategy, Business Development & IR, added that while Q2 and Q3 are seasonally strong, the gains are structural. On the sum-of-the-parts strategy, Soreq confirmed active work is underway, highlighting DKL's growth and increased third-party business, and noted that recent comparable asset sales validate the high intrinsic value of DKL's assets.

Matthew Blair inquired about the drivers behind the strong Q2 performance in the supply and marketing segment and its expected trend into Q3. He also asked for an update on the sum-of-the-parts monetization strategy, seeking clarity on the most likely options and the potential timing for an economic separation of Delek Logistics (DKL).

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq attributed the supply and marketing strength to EOP initiatives, improved logistics, and new contracts, with some seasonal tailwinds. On the sum-of-the-parts strategy, Soreq confirmed active work is underway, highlighting past successes like the retail sale and DKL's growth in third-party EBITDA. He pointed to recent high-multiple asset sales in the market as positive valuation indicators for DKL's assets. EVP Mohit Bhardwaj added that the commercial strategy is working across wholesale, asphalt, and supply.

Matthew Blair inquired about the performance of the supply and marketing segment, asking how it was trending in Q3 and if a positive EBITDA contribution was likely. He also asked for an update on the sum-of-the-parts monetization, seeking clarity on the most likely options and a potential timeline for the economic separation of DKL.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq and EVP Mohit Bhardwaj attributed the strong supply and marketing performance to structural EOP improvements, including better logistics and new contracts, along with seasonal strength. On the sum-of-the-parts strategy, Soreq confirmed they are actively working on next steps, highlighting past successes and pointing to recent high-multiple sales of comparable midstream assets (Medallion, Northwind) as evidence of DKL's intrinsic value.

Matthew Blair of TPH & Co. inquired about the drivers behind the strong Q2 performance in the supply and marketing segment and its expected trend for Q3. He also asked for an update on the sum-of-the-parts monetization strategy, including likely options and the potential timing for an economic separation of DKL.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq attributed the supply and marketing strength to EOP initiatives, improved logistics, and new market access, noting a seasonal benefit in Q2. EVP Mohit Bhardwaj added that the strategy focuses on improving wholesale, asphalt, and supply businesses. Regarding the sum-of-the-parts strategy, Mr. Soreq confirmed they are actively working on next steps, pointing to the high valuations of recently sold peer midstream assets as evidence of DKL's intrinsic value.

Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for an outlook on the Supply and Marketing segment for the second quarter, particularly regarding wholesale and asphalt, and questioned the dynamics in the Southwest refining market, which appeared to have a sluggish start to the year.

Answer

Avigal Soreq, President and CEO, and executive Mohit Bhardwaj responded. They highlighted a $10 million sequential improvement in Q1 driven by EOP initiatives despite seasonal weakness. For Q2, they noted a strong start with positive trends in rack demand and crack spreads. Bhardwaj specifically countered the notion of Southwest market weakness, pointing to strong cracks in Arizona driven by supply issues on the West Coast.

Matthew Blair questioned the drivers behind the Q4 loss in the supply and marketing segment and asked for an update on the potential investment in the Bakersfield renewable diesel facility.

Answer

Patrick Reilly, Chief Commercial Officer, attributed the Q4 supply and marketing loss to seasonal inland demand weakness and a major turnaround at Krotz Springs, but noted performance improved by $10 million year-over-year. Avigal Soreq, President and CEO, and Mohit Bhardwaj stated that the Bakersfield renewable diesel investment is not an active consideration, as it is contingent on the facility first demonstrating three months of healthy operations.

Matthew Blair asked for details on the planned 2025 CapEx reduction and whether the new forecast represents a sustainable minimum. He also inquired about the drivers for the sequential improvement in the supply and marketing segment and its outlook.

Answer

President and CEO Avigal Soreq explained the CapEx reduction reflects a lower-spend year, stating a sustainable base level is around $25 million per refinery in non-turnaround years. Regarding supply and marketing, Avigal Soreq and EVP of Operations Joseph Israel attributed the Q3 improvement to new commercial strategies, enhanced reliability, new logistics optionality, and new product offerings, stating the controllable portion of this improvement is sustainable.

Matthew Blair of TPH & Co. inquired about potential Q3 operational impacts from a Q2 outage and the current performance of OpCo assets. He also asked for an assessment of the company's four growth levers and the likelihood of a distribution increase in 2025 or 2026.

Answer

EVP & CFO M. Steven Bender clarified that the Q2 outage did not affect the ethylene unit, which is now running reliably post-turnaround. Regarding growth, Bender explained that with the parent company, Westlake Corporation, not needing immediate capital and MLP markets being contracted, there is no current plan to utilize the growth levers to raise equity.

Matthew Blair inquired about the financial impact of the Q1 Petro 1 turnaround, asking if it was more significant than past events, and questioned the rationale for maintaining the MLP structure given the compressed valuation spread with its parent, Westlake Corporation.

Answer

Steven Bender, Executive Vice President and CFO, explained that the turnaround's financial impact was consistent with internal plans, reflecting the unit being offline for two months. He suggested elevated interest rates could be another factor weighing on results. On the MLP's valuation, Bender noted that while the spread has compressed, the company evaluates the structure over a full business cycle, where the value proposition remains elevated.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. inquired about whether Westlake would consider ending the MLP arrangement to cut costs and asked for details on the financial impact of the planned 60-day turnaround.

Answer

Steven Bender, Executive Vice President and CFO, responded that ending the MLP for cost control is not a consideration because its value proposition from a multiple perspective outweighs the administrative costs. Regarding the turnaround, he confirmed it would cause a temporary dip in the distribution coverage ratio, consistent with historical precedents, but expects a full recovery to the 1.1x target once the unit is back online, as the costs have been fully reserved and funded.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the significance of shifting third-party sales volumes into Q3 and the resulting impact on Q4, as well as the 2025 outlook for restarting distribution growth and asset drops.

Answer

Steven Bender, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, clarified that the volume shift was a strategic move to capture high Q3 margins and that the impact on Q4 would be minimal as most third-party volume for the year has been sold. On future growth, Bender noted the company continues to assess the MLP market and is evaluating all options for restarting distribution growth and asset drops, contingent on finding accretive opportunities and investor appetite.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for clarification on the Q3 refining utilization guidance, which seemed low, and inquired if the company would consider bringing in a partner for its renewables business.

Answer

SVP of Refining Richard Harbison explained the lower Q3 utilization guidance is due to the impact of an unplanned power outage at the Bayway refinery and the operational wind-down of the Los Angeles refinery ahead of its Q4 shutdown. Chairman & CEO Mark Lashier responded that for a strategic asset like renewables, all options to create value are always considered, stating that 'everything's on the table.'

Matthew Blair asked about the outlook for the Marketing & Specialties (M&S) segment in Q2, given the falling crude price environment, and requested a breakdown of M&S EBITDA related to wholesale activities for peer comparison purposes.

Answer

Brian Mandell, EVP of Marketing and Commercial, confirmed that falling prices are generally beneficial for marketing and that April margins were stronger, leading to an expectation of a seasonal uptick in Q2 earnings. Kevin Mitchell, CFO, responded that the company does not break out its M&S results by channel of trade (wholesale vs. retail) but noted that the business is predominantly wholesale with a relatively low cost structure.

Matthew Blair asked for details on achieving the new target of $5.50/barrel for controllable refinery costs, inquiring about the specific levers and the contribution from the Los Angeles Refinery closure. He also asked about the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market and whether PSX expects to increase production.

Answer

Rich Harbison (Refining) stated the L.A. refinery closure would account for roughly 50% of the cost reduction, with the rest coming from continued business transformation and improved reliability. Brian Mandell (Marketing and Commercial) said that while SAF is an important product, production decisions are based on a linear program that optimizes for the best netback value against renewable diesel, and the market is currently tight.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about expectations for Q4 refining capture rates and the specific headwinds that impacted the West Coast in Q3.

Answer

Jeffrey Dietert stated it was too early to forecast Q4 capture rates. Rich Harbison of Refining detailed the Q3 West Coast headwinds, which included weaker market cracks, unfavorable feedstock advantages, inventory drawdowns in a falling price environment, and costs associated with the Rodeo and Los Angeles refinery transitions.

Matthew Blair requested more details on the unique North Carolina swine waste project, asking for rules of thumb and how it compares to typical dairy projects regarding CI score, operating costs, and capital efficiency.

Answer

President and CEO Sean McClain described the project as one of the most exciting to date, highlighting its significant differences from landfill and dairy projects. He explained its spoke-and-hub model, scalability, and diversified outputs (RNG, electricity, RECs, char products). He emphasized its potential for a significantly lower CI score due to its closed-loop system, making it an attractive portfolio hedge.

Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for details on the Rumpke site relocation, including the reason and potential for production gaps. He also requested insights into the North Carolina swine project, specifically how it compares to dairy projects regarding CI scores, operating costs, and capital efficiency.

Answer

President and CEO Sean McClain addressed both topics. Regarding Rumpke, he stated there will be no production interruptions, as existing technology will be consolidated into a new facility that will also add food-grade CO2 processing. He noted the relocation is a contractual requirement but presents a great opportunity to refresh older technology. On the North Carolina swine project, McClain described it as a unique and exciting development, differing significantly from landfill and dairy projects. He highlighted its spoke-and-hub model servicing dozens of farms, its potential for significant expansion, and its diversified output, including RNG, electricity, and soil-amendment products, all contributing to a theoretically superior CI score within a closed-loop system.

Asked about the rationale for maintaining full-year RNG production guidance despite Q2 challenges, the strategy for monetizing Q3 RINs, and the reason for a significant reduction in the 2024 CapEx forecast.

Answer

The company maintained production guidance due to expected uplift from H2 2024 well-field investments and optimizations, which offset weather impacts. RIN monetization strategy prioritizes selling to obligated parties over market timing. The CapEx reduction is due to a payment for the Bowerman project being deferred from late 2024 to 2025, which is not expected to delay the project's commissioning.

Matthew Blair asked why Montauk maintained its full-year RNG production guidance despite Q2 weather challenges and inquired if the company would monetize all Q3 RINs or potentially hold some back.

Answer

CFO Kevin Van Asdalan explained that guidance was maintained because planned well-field capital investments and operational enhancements in the second half of the year are expected to offset earlier weather-related production shortfalls. CEO Sean McClain added that the RIN monetization strategy is driven by placing attributes directly with obligated parties, not market timing, and their financial flexibility allows them to hold RINs to avoid intermediaries.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the Q1 process equipment failure at the Rumpke facility and its resolution timeline, and also inquired about the future mix of fixed-price versus spot-market offtake for growth projects and current pricing trends.

Answer

CFO Kevin Van Asdalan stated the Rumpke equipment failure, related to compression or media efficiency, is expected to be resolved in Q2 2024. On pricing, CEO Sean McClain explained they use a diverse monetization strategy including fixed-price, margin-sharing, and voluntary market sales. Mr. Van Asdalan added that voluntary market prices have seen slight upward movement but remain in the $18-$23/MMBtu range, not yet reflecting the full value of high D3 RIN prices.

Matthew Blair questioned the company's debt picture, noting a net leverage ratio of around 5.5x on an annualized first-half basis, and asked if management feels a need to reduce debt. He also asked if the counter-seasonal Q1 decline in construction volumes was driven more by commercial or residential weakness.

Answer

CEO Peter Huntsman expressed discomfort with current margin levels, not the debt itself, stating that on a normalized EBITDA basis, the balance sheet is very strong. CFO Phil Lister reinforced this, pointing to ample liquidity and a favorable bond maturity profile in 2029, 2031, and 2034. Regarding construction, Huntsman attributed the weakness primarily to the residential side, driven more by customer buying patterns than underlying demand.

Matthew Blair asked for the moving parts behind the $75 million headwind from equity affiliate dividends and whether the European notes would be refinanced or paid off with cash.

Answer

CFO Phil Lister attributed the dividend headwind to two factors: deteriorating MTBE margins and the non-recurrence of a one-off $40 million dividend from a Chinese MDI joint venture restructuring. He confirmed the European notes will be paid off with cash in Q1.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked for specific examples of areas where the Refining Business Improvement (RBI) program is exceeding expectations and requested clarification on the EBITDA from the logistics asset sale and PBF's share of Q1 renewable diesel EBITDA.

Answer

SVP Michael A. Bukowski reported that the RBI program is seeing significant opportunities in energy, turnaround performance, and strategic procurement, consistent with initial expectations. President and CEO Matthew Lucey revealed the terminals were sold for over 10x their EBITDA. CFO Karen Davis stated SBR's stand-alone EBITDA was a $17 million loss, with PBF's share being half of that.

Matthew Blair from TPH&Co. asked for details on how to measure the $200 million RBI program savings, questioning if the $0.60/barrel figure was conservative. He also asked if PBF expects to be free cash flow positive for the year at the current strip.

Answer

SVP Michael Bukowski explained the savings will primarily appear in refining OpEx, with some in the capital program, and framed the target as a 'first step of a long journey.' President and CEO Matthew Lucey added that internal expectations are higher and the focus is on sustainable cuts. He also affirmed that, yes, PBF expects to be free cash flow positive at the strip.

Matthew Blair sought clarification on the Q2 realized price guidance of $360-$370 per tonne, noting it seemed to imply a worsening discount rate compared to Q1. He also asked for specific figures on current MTO utilization rates versus the Q1 average.

Answer

Executive Rich Sumner advised that the realized price would likely be at the high end of the guided range and cautioned against reading too much into a widening discount. He stated that MTO utilization is currently around 75-80%, similar to the Q1 average, but noted it could rise above 90% as more supply becomes available in the market.

Matthew Blair inquired about any changes in how 2025 methanol contracts are being negotiated and whether discount rates are expected to increase. He also asked to confirm if there was a New Zealand gas diversion benefit in Q4 and its EBITDA impact.

Answer

President and CEO Rich Sumner reiterated that while the average discount rate might increase due to a sales mix shift towards the Atlantic, this reflects higher netback pricing and not worsening contract terms. He confirmed there was a Q4 gas diversion benefit in New Zealand of approximately $30 million, but noted this is offset by the lost margin from not producing methanol.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the expected inventory build in Q3 due to the G3 plant start-up and whether any further G3 delay costs should be anticipated for the third quarter.

Answer

President and CEO Rich Sumner clarified that overall inventory levels are not expected to change significantly, but the mix will shift to more produced and less purchased product, which should benefit working capital. He confirmed there will be one month of G3 delay costs in Q3 for July, which can be estimated from the Q2 figure.

Matthew Blair from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. asked about the Renewable Diesel segment's EBITDA outlook for Q2 and what criteria CVR needs to meet to begin recognizing the 45Z tax credit. He also inquired about the potential for refinery M&A and industry consolidation.

Answer

CEO David Lamp indicated that rising RIN prices are helping renewable diesel margins in Q2. CFO Dane Neumann explained the company is not yet recognizing the 45Z production tax credit (PTC) due to a lack of clarity from the IRS on what constitutes a "qualifying sale," noting it's a conservative position. Regarding M&A, Mr. Lamp agreed that economies of scale are crucial for survival and that while CVR sees potential for consolidation, the number of suitable counterparties is limited.

Matthew Blair questioned the drivers behind the sequential improvement in the refining capture rate in Q4, the outlook for Q1, the composition of 'other feedstocks' in the renewable diesel mix, and potential feedstock changes due to the 45Z tax credit.

Answer

CFO Dane Neumann attributed the Q4 capture rate improvement to strategic run cuts in December and a minor inventory benefit. For Q1, he anticipates a return to normal operations with better fixed-cost absorption if crack spreads remain elevated. CEO David Lamp explained that 'other feedstocks' consist of refinery gas streams and hydrogen. Regarding the 45Z credit, Mr. Lamp stated that while the company desires to run more low-CI corn oil, it is limited by catalyst capacity and yield penalties, adding that the 45Z credit does not fully compensate for the expiring Blender's Tax Credit.

Matthew Blair asked about the potential for filing insurance claims to recover lost profits from operational downtime and sought clarification on whether accessing capital markets could include an equity raise. He also questioned if the gathering system would be considered a non-core asset for potential sale.

Answer

CEO David Lamp confirmed they have recovered some money from insurance but do not have a final amount yet. On capital markets, CFO Dane Neumann stated it was premature to discuss the specific path or magnitude of a potential capital raise. Lamp added that the gathering system is integral but could be monetized if necessary, though it would not be their first choice.

Matthew Blair of TPH&Co. asked whether the 45Z Production Tax Credit is included in 2025 guidance, sought details on the market tightness in fuel dispensing, and inquired about the outlook for 2025 CapEx and corporate spending.

Answer

CFO Kazi Hasan clarified that a material amount of 45Z is in the low end of guidance, with a smaller expected value in the high end. Co-CEO Adam Comora added that the dispensing market tightness is driven by RNG supply growth outpacing offtake, partly due to the transition to the 15-liter engine and past regulatory uncertainty, which he believes is now clearing. Regarding spending, Hasan stated OPAL guides on projects entering construction rather than a specific CapEx number, and Comora noted corporate G&A would increase in 2025 to support platform growth.

Matthew Blair of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. inquired about the potential risks and opportunities for OPAL Fuels following the recent election, specifically concerning D3 RVO volumes, the ITC, and permitting. He also asked for details on the company's RIN hedging strategy, including the percentage of production sold forward for 2024 and 2025, and how forward sale pricing is determined.

Answer

Co-CEO Adam Comora addressed the election, stating the company believes its business is bipartisan and supported by both parties for its common-sense climate policy. He expressed confidence in continued support for D3 RVOs and the ITC, highlighting potential benefits for the fuel station business and renewable power from a new administration's energy policy. Regarding RINs, Comora confirmed that all 2024 RINs have been sold forward, and the price is locked in at the time of the transaction for future delivery, explaining the Q3 realized price reflects sales made earlier in the year.