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    Matthew Breese

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stephens Inc.

    Matthew Breese is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stephens Inc., specializing in coverage of Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regional banks and the broader financial sector. He covers over 60 regional and community bank stocks with a demonstrated performance record, ranking #1 in the nation for stock picking in his sector in 2015 and #3 in multiple years as recognized by StarMine, with a 59% success rate and an average return of 7.4% per rating based on TipRanks analytics. Breese began his career at Sterne Agee & Leach in 2008, then held leadership roles at Piper Jaffray before joining Stephens in August 2019. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Accounting and Finance from the University of Rhode Island and is registered with relevant industry credentials.

    Matthew Breese's questions to FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP /PA/ (FCF) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP /PA/ (FCF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. asked about the target level for the securities portfolio as a percentage of assets, strategic market share opportunities, and the potential impact of AI and data center investments in Pennsylvania.

    Answer

    CFO James Reske stated the company is comfortable with the current securities level (13.5% of assets) and does not feel a need to increase it, citing over $5 billion in available liquidity. CEO Thomas Michael Price expressed confidence in doubling the bank's size within its existing Ohio and Pennsylvania footprint by gaining market share and enhancing product penetration, rather than entering new markets. He also commented positively on the significant economic potential from AI and data center-related power investments in the region.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP /PA/ (FCF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for an extended net interest margin (NIM) outlook into 2026 and whether competitive pressures might cap margin expansion. He also inquired about current new loan yields, SBA credit trends and on-balance-sheet exposure, and the specific balance sheet impact of expiring macro swaps.

    Answer

    CFO James Reske projected the NIM could remain in the high 3.80s in 2026 in a flat-rate scenario, or around 3.80% with rate cuts, noting this assumes no recession. Chief Lending Officer Michael McCuen stated new loans are yielding around 7% but competitive pressure is increasing. Chief Credit Officer Brian Sohocki reported the on-balance-sheet SBA portfolio is diverse and around $165 million, with no notable credit concerns. Reske clarified that expiring swaps directly increase loan yields as they reprice from a low fixed rate to a higher variable SOFR-based rate.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP /PA/ (FCF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked about the outlook for cash balances and the securities portfolio, inquired about concentration limits for the equipment finance book, and requested specific accounting details for the Center Bank deal, including share issuance and accretable yield.

    Answer

    CFO James Reske stated that cash balances have normalized after paying down BTFP borrowings and the securities portfolio is expected to remain relatively flat. President and CEO Thomas Michael Price indicated the target concentration for the equipment finance book is around 10% or less of total loans, emphasizing the long-term goal is to grow the core C&I book. For the Center Bank deal, Reske provided key figures, including an issuance of 3 million shares and an expected EPS accretion of about $0.01 per quarter, noting that the accretable yield impact would be minimal.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP /PA/ (FCF) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese sought clarification on the true floating-rate loan exposure, the maturity profile of the fixed-rate book, the specific yields on repricing fixed-rate loans, and the outlook for nonperforming assets and charge-offs.

    Answer

    CFO Jim Reske clarified that while over 50% of loans are variable, only 33% are tied to short-term indices like SOFR. He provided a total loan portfolio duration of 2.76 years and specified that new fixed-rate loans were originated at 7.24% while run-offs were at 5.52%. President and CEO Mike Price stated he believes NPAs are near a peak and that the core bank's normalized charge-off rate is in the low teens.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to NBT BANCORP (NBTB) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to NBT BANCORP (NBTB) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. questioned the plans for deploying excess liquidity, the target level for the securities portfolio, the latest developments regarding the CHIPS Act and Micron's project, and the company's M&A appetite now that the Evans deal is closed.

    Answer

    President & CEO Scott Kingsley explained that excess liquidity resulted from the Evans deal, modest loan growth, and strong deposit growth. EVP & CFO Annette Burns added that near-term uses include the recent sub-debt repayment and expected municipal outflows, with the remainder supporting loan growth. Regarding the securities portfolio, Kingsley indicated they are reinvesting cash flows and are open to opportunistic purchases. He confirmed Micron's recommitment and noted additional tax incentives are a net positive. On M&A, Kingsley emphasized the focus remains on successful integration but said the bank is well-capitalized and methodically evaluating opportunities to fill in its geographic footprint.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to NBT BANCORP (NBTB) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. asked about the potential for CHIPS Act funding to be rescinded or delayed, the outlook for fee income drivers, the revised forecast for loan growth, and details on a specific commercial real estate charge-off.

    Answer

    Executive Scott Kingsley acknowledged that while the government has contractual obligations for the CHIPS Act, adjustments are possible, but he believes the core goal of domestic manufacturing will remain. CFO Annette Burns projected a stable fee income run rate around $46 million. Kingsley revised the full-year loan growth outlook down from 3-5% to 2-3%, citing a slow first quarter. Burns confirmed the CRE charge-off was on a previously disclosed credit, with the remaining exposure now written down to fair value.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to NBT BANCORP (NBTB) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. questioned the company's timeline for future whole-bank M&A following the Evans deal, the expected tax rate for the upcoming year, and key areas of internal investment. He also asked for clarification on a comment about 'going to market' and its relation to capital plans.

    Answer

    Executive Scott Kingsley stated the company is 'mono-focused' on the Evans integration with no set M&A timeline, instead highlighting numerous organic growth opportunities. CFO Annette Burns provided a 2025 tax rate estimate of 22.5% to 23%. Kingsley clarified that his market comment was not about a capital raise and noted the company has flexibility regarding its upcoming sub-debt maturity.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to NBT BANCORP (NBTB) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese questioned if the quarterly expense level was higher than management expected and sought to confirm a normalized run rate for Q4. He also asked if any unusual items contributed to the strong NIM performance, requested details on fee income seasonality, and inquired if the slight decline in reserves could continue as certain loan portfolios run off.

    Answer

    CFO Annette Burns stated the expense level was not a surprise and was driven by a 'catch-up' on incentive compensation accruals due to strong performance; she confirmed a normalized quarterly expense range of $92-$94 million. She also affirmed there were no unusual items in the NIM. Regarding fee income, she explained Q3's strength in insurance is tied to typical commercial renewal timing. On reserves, she agreed that the mix shift away from higher-reserve runoff portfolios (like solar) is reducing the overall coverage ratio and that this trend could continue for a few more quarters before leveling off. Executive Scott Kingsley added context on the scale of the fee businesses and reinforced the reserve coverage rationale.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL (OCFC) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL (OCFC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese sought clarity on the NIM impact from rate cuts, why new higher-cost deposits won't raise the bank's average, the trend in securities yields, the outlook for loan yield expansion, and the role of CRE payoffs in loan growth guidance.

    Answer

    CFO Patrick Barrett indicated a minimal NIM impact from rate cuts, at less than a penny per share annually per 25 bps. Chairman & CEO Christopher Maher explained new deposit costs will moderate as low-cost operating balances build over time. Maher also confirmed that 4 bps is a good proxy for quarterly loan yield expansion and that the bank expects CRE balances to remain steady, not in runoff.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL (OCFC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese inquired how the anticipated deposit growth from Premier teams would impact the balance sheet size, whether any teams have a national focus, and for an update on the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) concentration and strategy.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Maher estimated that new deposits would be split between funding balance sheet growth and remixing higher-cost funding, depending on loan demand. He confirmed the teams are New York metro-centric. Regarding CRE, Maher stated the concentration is down to 3.93% at the holding company level due to competitive pressures, not a strategic de-emphasis. He added the bank would not do bulk sales and sees a significant margin opportunity in repricing a $1.2 billion CRE portfolio maturing over the next two years.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL (OCFC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese sought more color on the potential impact of new hiring teams on deposits and expenses, and questioned the timeline for the net interest margin (NIM) to return to the 3% level.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Maher was hesitant to provide specific figures before hiring concludes but confirmed conversations with teams that could bring in hundreds of millions in deposits with a favorable mix, including 35-45% noninterest-bearing accounts. Regarding the NIM, Maher projected a return to 3% is more likely a 2026 event than 2025, anticipating a 'steady, slow march' upward as the loan book reprices in the current rate environment.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL (OCFC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for clarification on the expense run rate, the contribution of Garden State to the mortgage pipeline, CRE competition, and capital strategy concerning the upcoming reset of subordinated debt and preferred stock.

    Answer

    CFO Patrick Barrett provided a Q4 expense guide of $63-$65 million and noted the acquisitions are near-term EPS accretive. CEO Christopher Maher explained the higher Q4 run rate is due to the timing of the Spring Garden closing. Regarding capital, he stated the bank is keeping all options open for its repricing instruments but is 'loath to issue common' equity.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to FLAGSTAR FINANCIAL (FLG) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to FLAGSTAR FINANCIAL (FLG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. asked about the asset size threshold for regulatory stress tests and sought an update on previous comments about diversifying the capital stack with preferred capital.

    Answer

    General Counsel Bao Nguyen confirmed the bank will be under the asset threshold and that the holding company merger makes the requirement moot. Executive Chairman, President & CEO Joseph Otting acknowledged the capital stack is a 'one trick pony' and said diversifying it with instruments like preferred capital will be a consideration for the board as the bank returns to significant profitability in 2026.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to S&T BANCORP (STBA) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to S&T BANCORP (STBA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese questioned the net interest margin outlook for the rest of the year, asked for details on the securities portfolio including new purchase yields, probed the bank's view on its excess capital, and inquired about the economic impact of regional energy and infrastructure investments.

    Answer

    CFO Mark Kochvar guided to a stable NIM in the mid-3.80s range, with new securities being purchased at 4.5-5% yields. He stated the current TCE ratio over 11% is higher than necessary and a level around 9% would be comfortable, reinforcing the case for M&A. CEO Chris McComish expressed strong optimism about regional infrastructure projects in Western Pennsylvania, noting his personal attendance at a recent summit and the bank's active engagement.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to S&T BANCORP (STBA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for more detail on the drivers of customer optimism, the expected net interest margin (NIM) trajectory towards year-end 2025, and the outlook for net interest income (NII) growth.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher McComish attributed customer optimism to a general increase in confidence stemming from more clarity on interest rates and the post-election environment, rather than specific geographic or industry trends. Executive Mark Kochvar indicated that while an upward NIM trajectory is possible by late 2025, it depends heavily on deposit pricing competition needed to fund loan growth. He projected modest, low single-digit year-over-year growth for NII, with Q1 likely flat before a pickup in Q2.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to S&T BANCORP (STBA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked about the possibility of additional securities restructurings and the yield pickup from recent transactions. He also probed the drivers of commercial real estate loan payoffs, seeking to understand how much was strategic versus driven by competitive pressures from insurance companies or other banks.

    Answer

    Executive Mark Kochvar stated that further significant securities restructurings are unlikely as the cost-benefit has diminished, and he provided the yield pickups from the two prior restructurings (370 bps and 270 bps). President Dave Antolik explained that the large multifamily payoffs were a normal course of business, as customers moved from construction loans to permanent, non-recourse financing, which is outside the bank's risk appetite. CEO Chris McComish added that while bank competition is not a major factor, some credit unions have become more competitive.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. asked for the blended price on new CDs and questioned the narrative of deposit quality improvement given high and rising deposit costs. He also asked about the potential for a stock buyback due to the valuation disconnect and followed up on the timeline to achieve a 1% ROA and 15% ROTCE.

    Answer

    SEVP & CFO Travis Lan clarified that CD growth was a mix of promotional retail and brokered CDs, and highlighted strong core deposit tailwinds, including $1.8B in new deposits at a 2.77% rate. Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins added a strategic view on long-term value creation from new account growth. Regarding capital, Robbins stated they have significant flexibility for a buyback but are balancing it with strong organic growth opportunities. He affirmed a clear path to 1% ROA by year-end and a glide path toward 15% ROTCE in 2027.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. asked about the cost of new CD growth, deposit cost pressures, the potential for a share buyback given the stock's valuation, and the timeline for achieving a 1% return on assets (ROA) and 15% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE).

    Answer

    SEVP & CFO Travis Lan clarified that CD growth was a mix of retail promotions and a strategic shift from other brokered types, with new customer deposits costing 2.77%. Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins addressed capital allocation, stating that while the bank has significant flexibility for buybacks, it is balancing that against strong organic growth opportunities. Robbins confirmed a clear path to 1% ROA by year-end and a glide path toward 15% ROTCE in 2027.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. asked for the blended price on new CDs and questioned why deposit costs remain high despite strategic improvements. He also explored the potential for a share buyback given the stock's valuation and followed up on the timeline to achieve a 1% ROA and 15% ROTCE.

    Answer

    SEVP & CFO Travis Lan clarified that CD growth was partly promotional and partly a shift from brokered money market accounts, and that new customer deposits came in at a favorable 2.77% rate. Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins addressed the valuation, stating that while a buyback is an option, the focus is on organic growth to create long-term value. He reaffirmed the path to a 1% ROA by year-end and a clear glide path towards 12-12.5% ROTCE next year, eventually reaching 15%.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. asked about the blended cost of new CDs, opportunities to reduce overall deposit costs, and the potential for a stock buyback given the valuation disconnect. He also inquired about the path and timeline to achieving a 1% ROA and 15% ROTCE.

    Answer

    SEVP & CFO Travis Lan clarified that new customer deposits were added at a 2.77% rate and that CD growth was a mix of promotional and brokered activity. Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins stated that while the bank has flexibility for a buyback, the focus is on balancing it with strong organic growth opportunities. Robbins reaffirmed the clear path to a 1% ROA by year-end 2025 and a glide path toward 15% ROTCE by 2027, driven by sustained NII growth and strategic execution.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. asked for the blended price on new CD growth and questioned why deposit costs remain elevated despite investments in relationship banking. He also explored the potential for a share buyback given the stock's valuation and asked about the timeline for achieving a 1% ROA and 15% ROTCE.

    Answer

    SEVP & CFO Travis Lan clarified that CD growth was a mix of retail promotions and a strategic shift from brokered money market accounts to brokered CDs. Chairman & CEO Ira Robbins emphasized the long-term strategic value of growing deposit accounts and treasury capabilities, which will drive costs down over time. Regarding capital, Robbins stated that while the bank has flexibility for buybacks, it is currently balancing that against strong organic growth opportunities. He reaffirmed a clear path to reaching 1% ROA by year-end and progressing toward a 15% ROTCE in subsequent years.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked about funding expectations, specifically for core deposit growth and the remaining balance of brokered deposits to run off. He also questioned the significant move in loan yields, seeking to understand the impact of spread compression, and requested the end-of-period cost of deposits.

    Answer

    CEO Ira Robbins linked funding needs to moderated loan growth expectations. Executive Travis Lan confirmed the bank is on track for its 6% annual core deposit growth target and highlighted a $6 billion pool of brokered CDs maturing over the next 12 months, which presents a repricing opportunity. He clarified that the Q1 loan yield was significantly impacted by having two fewer days in the quarter, which was a larger factor than spread compression. He did not have the spot deposit cost available.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked about the deployment strategy for the elevated cash position, the target for the securities portfolio as a percentage of assets, the latest total cost of deposits, and details on the renewed focus on retail branch banking.

    Answer

    Executive Travis Lan stated that the elevated cash will normalize throughout the year as it is put to work, with the securities portfolio expected to grow by over $500 million in 2025. He noted the December average cost of deposits was 2.87%. CEO Ira Robbins addressed the retail strategy, explaining that costs for branch investments are in the guidance and that there are significant opportunities for growth within the existing New Jersey footprint due to market disruption, in addition to recent openings in other markets like Beverly Hills.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. asked about the Net Interest Margin (NIM) outlook in a rate-cutting cycle, the conservative Q4 fee income guide, the timeline to a sustainable 1% ROA, and the potential magnitude of Q4 charge-offs.

    Answer

    Executives Travis Lan and Ira Robbins stated that NIM is expected to expand, driven by outperforming deposit betas and the repricing of fixed-rate assets. The flat fee income guide was described as conservative, and CEO Ira Robbins suggested a 1%+ ROA is achievable soon after credit normalizes. An executive noted Q4 charge-offs could be elevated due to isolated loans but would not be materially out of line for the full year.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. /NY/ (DCOM) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. /NY/ (DCOM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. asked about the outlook for deposit costs without rate cuts, the characteristics of new lending verticals (pricing, spreads, loss history), their potential scale, the target for the loan loss reserve, and the strategy for deploying excess cash.

    Answer

    CFO Avinash Reddy stated that deposit costs are expected to be stable, with future NIM expansion driven by asset repricing. Reddy and CEO Stuart Lubow described the new verticals as primarily floating-rate with spreads of 250-300 bps over SOFR and low historical loss content, aiming for each to become a $500 million business. Reddy noted the goal is to build the ACL ratio toward the 90-100 basis point range over time. Both executives confirmed the plan is to deploy excess cash into these new loan verticals rather than securities to drive long-term earnings power.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. /NY/ (DCOM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese inquired about the trajectory of deposit costs absent Fed cuts, the potential impact of tariff noise on lending, hiring opportunities related to the Signature Bank failure anniversary, the full-year fee income guidance, and the bank's stance on share buybacks.

    Answer

    CFO Avinash Reddy noted that while most rate cuts are priced in, some deposit cost reduction is still possible from repricing CDs. Executive Stuart Lubow stated it's too early to see tariff impacts and the bank has limited direct exposure. Reddy clarified that hiring opportunities are now broad-based, not just from one bank. He also reaffirmed the $40-$42 million fee income guidance and explained that buybacks are on hold to preserve capital for strong loan growth opportunities and to improve the CRE concentration ratio.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. /NY/ (DCOM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. asked for details on new loan yields, payoff activity, competition from non-banks in CRE, the health of the rent-regulated and office portfolios, and the outlook for deposit growth and betas in 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Stuart Lubow stated the new loan pipeline yields an average of 7.75%, weighted towards C&I. CFO Avinash Reddy noted that while CRE payoffs were stable, business loan payoffs were elevated in Q4. On credit, Reddy projected 2025 charge-offs in a 20-30 bps range, while Lubow confirmed the rent-regulated portfolio is performing well with no non-performers. For 2025, CFO Reddy expects solid deposit growth, with the DDA mix stable to slightly up, and anticipates future deposit betas will be similar to the ~55% total beta seen on recent rate cuts.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. /NY/ (DCOM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for the underlying deposit and loan beta assumptions in the NIM forecast, the percentage of floating-rate loans, which deposit categories saw the most successful repricing, and the role of shared national credits (SNCs) in C&I loan growth.

    Answer

    CFO Avinash Reddy estimated a total deposit beta of 55-60% and a loan beta of 20-25% based on recent rate cuts. He stated that approximately 35% of loans are floating rate, including hedges. CEO Stuart Lubow and Reddy attributed successful deposit repricing to a focus on money market, business, and municipal accounts, aided by a low volume of time deposits. Lubow clarified that the bank has almost no exposure to SNCs, with only one $15 million credit, focusing instead on direct relationship and club deals.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM (CBU) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM (CBU) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. requested more detail on the loan pipeline, confirmation of the 5-7% loan growth target, the composition and cost of acquired deposits, the status of the de novo branch rollout and related closures, the reason for the quarterly loan yield increase, and an update on the Micron project.

    Answer

    CEO Dimitar Karaivanov clarified the full-year loan growth target is closer to 4-5% and described the acquired deposits as granular with a blended cost just under 2%. CFO Marya Burgio Wlos confirmed 7 of 19 de novo branches are open, with 17 closures planned to keep the expansion net-neutral to cost, and stated the loan yield increase was not atypical. Mr. Karaivanov also confirmed the Micron project remains on track for a Q4 groundbreaking.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM (CBU) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. requested details on the loan pipeline, financial targets for loan growth, and the composition and cost of acquired deposits. He also asked for updates on the de novo branch rollout, planned closures, loan yield trends, and the status of the Micron project.

    Answer

    CEO Dimitar Karaivanov reiterated a mid-single-digit loan growth target, likely at the lower end (4-5%) for the year, and described the acquired deposits as granular with a cost just below 2%. CFO Marya Burgio Wlos confirmed 7 of 19 de novo branches are open, with 17 closures planned to maintain a net-neutral footprint, and stated recent loan yield expansion was not atypical. Mr. Karaivanov added the Micron project is on track to break ground in Q4.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM (CBU) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. requested details on the loan pipeline, clarification on loan growth targets, the composition and cost of acquired deposits, an update on the de novo branch rollout versus closures, the nature of the recent loan yield increase, and the status of the Micron project.

    Answer

    CEO Dimitar Karaivanov confirmed a mid-single-digit loan growth target for the year, likely in the 4-5% range, and detailed the acquired deposits as granular, low-cost, and intended to fund loan growth over the next 5-6 years. CFO Marya Burgio Wlos updated that 7 of 19 de novo branches are open, with 17 closures planned to ensure the expansion is net neutral, and confirmed the loan yield increase was not unusual. Dimitar Karaivanov concluded that the Micron project remains on track for a Q4 groundbreaking.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM (CBU) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. asked for details on the loan pipeline, clarification on loan growth targets, the composition and cost of acquired deposits, an update on the de novo branch rollout and related closures, the reason for strong loan yield performance, and the status of the Micron project.

    Answer

    CEO Dimitar Karaivanov affirmed a full-year loan growth target at the lower end of the mid-single-digit range (4-5%), supported by a robust pipeline. He detailed the acquired deposits as granular with a cost just under 2%. CFO Marya Burgio Wlos confirmed 7 of 19 de novo branches are open, with 17 closures planned, and noted the loan yield increase was not atypical. Mr. Karaivanov also confirmed the Micron project's Q4 groundbreaking is on track.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM (CBU) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese requested an outlook for Net Interest Income (NII), asking for specifics on cash flows and roll-off yields from the loan and securities portfolios. He also asked if the competitive environment would alter the company's M&A strategy and sought guidance on the expense outlook for 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Joseph Serbun detailed that the loan portfolio's back book yield is just over 5.50% while new volume is near 7%, providing NII lift. He noted minimal securities runoff in 2025 but significant repricing opportunities in 2026-2029. Executive Dimitar Karaivanov stated that the M&A strategy remains focused on quality and is unchanged by the environment. Joseph Serbun projected mid-single-digit growth in operating expenses for the year, driven by strategic investments.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM (CBU) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese focused on the cadence of loan yield expansion, payoff activity, and the duration of the loan book. He also asked whether the bank was seeing pressure to raise deposit costs or had opportunities to lower them, and concluded by asking about the M&A outlook given the new leadership at the FDIC.

    Answer

    Executive Joseph Sutaris indicated that the recent 7 basis point quarterly loan yield expansion is likely not sustainable due to the impact of potential rate cuts on the floating-rate book. Executive Dimitar Karaivanov noted that loan prepayment activity is below average. On deposits, Karaivanov stated there is 'no pressure to increase costs' and the bank is actively reducing them. Regarding M&A, he acknowledged a more constructive regulatory tone but said it doesn't fundamentally change their opportunistic approach, as the bank's strong organic growth means it doesn't need to pursue a transaction.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM (CBU) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese inquired about the outlook for Net Interest Income (NII) and Net Interest Margin (NIM), the drivers behind recent loan growth, the trajectory of credit provisions and reserves, and the economic activity in Upstate New York.

    Answer

    Executive Dimitar Karaivanov and Executive Joseph Sutaris explained that NII is expected to continue expanding, driven by loan repricing and deposit cost management following the Fed rate cut. Mr. Karaivanov clarified that recent strong loan growth was boosted by a few large deals and is expected to normalize. He also suggested that while credit reserves are currently high, they may increase by a few basis points in coming quarters. He attributed strong Upstate New York economic activity to manufacturing onshoring and government subsidies.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to FULTON FINANCIAL (FULT) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to FULTON FINANCIAL (FULT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for details on the loan pipeline's composition, particularly the mix between C&I, commercial real estate, and residential. He also inquired about trends in new loan spreads, the future trajectory of accretable yield from the Republic acquisition, and the company's appetite for further share or subordinated debt repurchases.

    Answer

    CEO Curtis Myers emphasized a commitment to a diversified loan book, noting C&I is a strategic focus but is currently very competitive. CFO Richard Kraemer added that new loan origination spreads have compressed by about an eighth to a quarter from their peaks. He projected accretable yield to be in an $11M-$12M range. Myers stated that capital allocation prioritizes organic growth, with buybacks considered opportunistically.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to FULTON FINANCIAL (FULT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked if interest recapture from loan payoffs boosted Q1 NIM, sought details on risk management actions impacting loan growth, and inquired about exposure to Washington D.C. office real estate.

    Answer

    Chief Financial Officer Rick Kraemer confirmed no material interest recapture occurred. Chairman and Executive Officer Curtis Myers explained that risk actions included a high volume of troubled asset resolutions, prudent decisions on construction loan conversions, and exiting some auto dealer relationships. He specified that D.C. office exposure is limited to $105 million in the metro area, reflecting a historically cautious approach to properties with federal government leases.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to FULTON FINANCIAL (FULT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. requested details on the loan portfolio's rate mix, the outlook for loan yields amid expected Fed cuts, the deposit pricing environment relative to beta goals, and specific areas of anticipated loan growth for 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Rick Kraemer directed him to the earnings supplement for loan mix details and explained that while loan yields face near-term pressure, they should rebound as the adjustable-rate portfolio reprices. He also noted deposit betas are improving. CEO Curtis Myers stated that loan growth will be diversified but is tempered by headwinds from the indirect auto runoff and acquired loan repositioning, resulting in a low to mid-single-digit growth forecast.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to FULTON FINANCIAL (FULT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese delved into the mechanics of the net interest margin, asking where the bank has room to cut deposit costs, its expectations for deposit betas on the down-cycle, and the corresponding loan beta. He also sought to clarify whether the 2024 and 2025 expense guidance included or excluded core deposit intangible (CDI) amortization.

    Answer

    CFO Designee Rick Kraemer detailed that the bank had already lowered rates on about $10 billion in deposits and expects a long-term down-cycle deposit beta near 30%. He also clarified a misstatement in the presentation, confirming that the operating expense guidance for both 2024 and 2025 excludes CDI amortization.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked about the competitive landscape, areas of spread compression, and the roll-on versus roll-off yields for loans. He also followed up on whether consumer lending is a lever the bank would pull if commercial loan growth slows.

    Answer

    CFO Douglas Schosser noted that new commercial loans are originating at 7.26% while old ones are rolling off at 6.76%. CEO Louis Torchio added that the bank is maintaining pricing discipline, which could constrain volume. Torchio confirmed that consumer lending, particularly indirect auto and home equity, is a strategic lever they can use, but its deployment is actively balanced against credit quality risk and overall yield, with the flexibility to pull back if the consumer credit environment weakens.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked about Northwest's strategy for commercial real estate (CRE) lending, noting that some peers are re-entering the space, and questioned if Northwest might grow this portfolio if yields are attractive. He also sought expectations for loan and deposit betas and whether the net interest margin has an upward bias given the yield curve. Finally, he asked for guidance on the provision expense and the expected level for the loan loss reserve.

    Answer

    CFO Douglas Schosser stated that while the bank will execute on good CRE deals, it is not a strategic focus to materially grow the portfolio, confirming a 'flattish' outlook is a fair assumption. Chief Credit Officer Thomas Creal added they are being strategic about CRE opportunities. Schosser agreed the current rate environment provides an opportunity for margin expansion, guiding for continued growth. Regarding the provision, he indicated that it should see slight increases to support projected loan growth, assuming a stable credit environment.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese requested a breakdown of floating-rate loans and their yields, the expected pace of C&I loan growth, and whether the reserve-to-loan ratio would increase as the loan mix shifts toward C&I.

    Answer

    CFO Douglas Schosser directed the question on loan mix to the earnings presentation, which showed 24% of loans are floating rate. CEO Louis Torchio explained that while there is no specific C&I target percentage, the goal is a more balanced book with ancillary fee and deposit benefits. Both executives confirmed the allowance for credit losses will prudently increase over time to reflect the risk profile of the C&I-focused strategy.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Customers Bancorp (CUBI) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to Customers Bancorp (CUBI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. focused on cubiX deposits, asking about their interest-bearing status and the risk of conversion. He also inquired about the deposit cap and the underlying collateral in the recent securities sale. Lastly, he asked if the two-year anniversary of the March 2023 banking crisis would unlock new hiring opportunities.

    Answer

    President and CEO Sam Sidhu confirmed 100% of cubiX deposits are noninterest-bearing and that the previous 15% concentration cap is no longer in place since all such deposits are held in cash. CFO Philip Watkins and CEO Sam Sidhu clarified the securities sale involved corporates, CLOs, and non-agency CMBS, and did not include the bank's securitized consumer loans. Regarding hiring, Sidhu acknowledged that while some talent lockups are expiring, Customers Bank's recruitment pipeline is primarily driven by its reputation as a high-performing platform, attracting talent from a wide range of stable institutions.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Customers Bancorp (CUBI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for details on purchase discount accretion and its expected impact in 2025. He also inquired about the provisioning outlook and where the reserve-to-loan ratio might settle. Additionally, he sought clarity on the new cap for crypto-related deposits, whether recent growth came from new customers, and how to reconcile the bank's commentary on reducing brokered deposits with relatively flat call report data.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Philip Watkins stated that discount accretion is now immaterial and not a significant factor for 2025 NII. He noted the reserve ratio decline was due to loan mix shifts and that while current levels are appropriate, continued loan growth could require higher provisions. President and CEO Samvir Sidhu explained that there is no new formal cap on crypto deposits as management assesses activity levels, and confirmed growth came from existing customers. He clarified that a significant reduction in brokered deposits occurred in Q4 and that these higher-cost funds remain a primary target for the ongoing deposit remix.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to Customers Bancorp (CUBI) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. questioned the net interest margin (NIM) cadence through year-end, balance sheet expectations including cash-to-assets ratio, whether the current expense base fully reflects new hires, and the bank's position on regulatory comments about crypto and venture capital deposits.

    Answer

    CFO Philip Watkins guided that NIM would likely see modest expansion in Q3 before a boost in Q4, and confirmed the Q2 expense base is a reasonable run rate. President and CEO Sam Sidhu reiterated the bank's self-imposed 15% limit on digital asset-related deposits and stressed that its venture banking deposits are diversified and relationship-focused, mitigating concentration risks highlighted by regulators.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens requested details on Webster's loan growth pipeline, focusing on the bank's appetite for commercial real estate (CRE), expectations for the Marathon partnership's impact on C&I growth, and the recent strength in residential lending. He also asked about the provisioning outlook.

    Answer

    CEO John Ciulla stated that while economic uncertainty has delayed some client investment, underlying demand supports the 4-5% annual loan growth forecast. He noted Webster is selectively participating in the CRE market, which has become more competitive. The Marathon joint venture is expected to go live late Q2 or early Q3, with its financial impact excluded from current forecasts. Ciulla explained that residential growth helps balance the portfolio, but its pace may slow. He also expressed hope for provisioning tailwinds if the economy stabilizes.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. sought details on deposit cost and beta expectations within the 2025 margin guidance and inquired about Webster's long-term strategy for its geographic footprint.

    Answer

    CFO William Holland noted that deposit costs were declining and the bank anticipates a terminal beta of around 30% for the current rate cycle. CEO John Ciulla explained that Webster plans to expand its national businesses (like sponsor finance and ABL) rather than opening new local branches, unless a compelling M&A opportunity arises to expand its core footprint.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese from Stephens Inc. asked about expectations for loan and deposit betas in a falling rate environment and inquired about the outlook for expense growth, particularly costs associated with preparing to cross the $100 billion asset threshold.

    Answer

    CFO William Holland detailed that the bank has already achieved a ~60% down-beta on a significant portion of its deposit portfolio and anticipates a 30% beta on the total portfolio over the next five quarters of rate cuts, positioning the bank neutrally. CEO John Ciulla and CFO Holland explained that while there will be costs to prepare for Category 4 status, they will be spread out over 3-4 years and partially offset by efficiency savings, with full guidance coming in January.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked about near-term expense growth, incremental loan yields and spreads, the expected closing timeline for the merger, and the status of the planned capital raise.

    Answer

    CFO William Burns projected stand-alone expense growth at 4-5% annually and noted some merger cost saves were already realized. CEO Frank Sorrentino added that they may phase in saves to properly nurture acquired client relationships. Mr. Burns stated new loan yields are around 7.25-7.40%. Mr. Sorrentino confirmed the deal is expected to close in Q2, implying imminent regulatory approval, and that the planned sub-debt raise will likely occur before closing in a favorable market.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese of Stephens Inc. inquired about the drivers behind ConnectOne's improved loan growth, the current pipeline and spreads, and the recent positive shift in market sentiment. He also asked for details on the strong noninterest-bearing deposit growth and the bank's plans for a potential capital raise to address upcoming sub-debt repricing.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Frank Sorrentino attributed stronger loan growth to a robust pipeline, a strategic de-emphasis on non-relationship business, and increased client confidence. He noted deposit growth stemmed from a focus on relationship banking and capitalizing on market disruption. CFO Bill Burns provided specifics, stating Q4 loans were booked at 7.45% with a pipeline average of 7.62%, and confirmed plans to issue $175 million to $200 million in sub-debt to cover the transaction and upcoming repricing.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for clarification on the timing for loan growth, which is expected to be muted near-term, and inquired about expectations for loan and deposit betas following the Fed's rate cuts. He also sought an update on the planned $100 million subordinated debt raise associated with the First of Long Island merger.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Frank Sorrentino clarified that loan growth would likely remain muted for another one to two quarters before returning to a mid- to high-single-digit pace by Q2 2025, driven by organic efforts and merger synergies. CFO Bill Burns addressed the other points, stating the deposit beta for the next rate cut could range from 60-100%, but he is modeling 80% for now. He confirmed the plan to raise sub-debt in Q1 2025, likely combining it with a repricing for a total $175 million offering.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to CAMDEN NATIONAL (CAC) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to CAMDEN NATIONAL (CAC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for clarity on the future run rate for fee income and core operating expenses, and questioned management on the progress of the Northway Financial integration.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Mike Archer projected fee income could reach the $12.0-$12.5 million range in Q2, approaching $13 million by year-end. Both Archer and President & CEO Simon Griffiths confirmed a core quarterly expense run rate of $34.5-$35.0 million is a good near-term estimate, with more savings expected in the second half of the year. Griffiths described the integration as exceptionally smooth with strong employee retention and positive client feedback, and affirmed an appetite for future M&A.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to CAMDEN NATIONAL (CAC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for specifics on the Northway deal's financial impact, including the CECL Day 2 provision, expected reported NIM with accretion, and future M&A appetite.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Michael Archer stated that purchase accounting is being finalized but expects the CECL impact to be consistent with initial estimates. He projected a reported NIM potentially in the 2.85%-2.90% range and noted goodwill would likely be slightly higher than the original $40-$45 million forecast. President and CEO Simon Griffiths added that while the current focus is on integration, the bank maintains an appetite for the 'right deal' in contiguous markets.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to MainStreet Bancshares (MNSB) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to MainStreet Bancshares (MNSB) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Inquired about the Avenu platform, specifically the delayed breakeven timeline, the actual cost of current Avenu deposits, the conservatism of the financial projections, and the regulatory treatment and potential volatility of these deposits.

    Answer

    Executives attributed the delayed breakeven timeline to the later-than-expected launch of Avenu and confirmed they are using conservative projections from an independent consultant. They clarified that current Avenu deposits are very low cost (some at 2%, others non-interest-bearing) and that the model prioritizes low-cost deposits over fee income. They acknowledged the need to analyze deposit stickiness to determine volatility and how funds can be deployed, noting a robust liquidity plan is in place.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to MainStreet Bancshares (MNSB) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese asked for an update on Avenu's growth expectations, questioning the revised breakeven timeline, the deposit contribution from current partners, the cost of Avenu deposits, and their regulatory classification and volatility.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Jeff Dick attributed the delayed breakeven timeline to ensuring regulatory compliance and confirmed the use of conservative projections from consultant FS Vector. He noted current partners like Flutterwave and PaySii have contributed some initial deposits but are in early stages. On costs, he clarified the goal is attracting low-cost DDA deposits, with a fee structure that incentivizes fintechs to forgo interest. Regarding volatility, Jeff Dick explained the bank will perform decay rate analysis to determine deposit stickiness, while Chief Accountant Richard Vari added that a robust liquidity plan is in place.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to UNIVEST FINANCIAL (UVSP) leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to UNIVEST FINANCIAL (UVSP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Matthew Breese questioned the normalization timeline for the excess cash position, the composition and yield of the loan pipeline, details on deposit repricing actions following recent Fed cuts, and the reasonableness of the fee income growth guidance for 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Brian Richardson explained that average excess liquidity would be stable in Q4, with $150-$250 million running off due to seasonal muni outflows, leaving the rest available for deployment. He also detailed that Univest has about $2 billion in indexed deposits that reprice automatically and that the bank actively repriced $325 million of exception-priced deposits down by 50 basis points. Executive Jeff Schweitzer described the loan pipeline as healthy, primarily in C&I, with new loan pricing above 7%. Brian Richardson concluded that the 7-9% fee income growth range is a reasonable baseline for 2025, with some potential upside.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to NYCB leadership

    Matthew Breese's questions to NYCB leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Inquired about the drivers of declining loan yields (accretion, nonaccruals) and when they might expand, and asked about the rationale for the projected decline in earning assets and the strategy regarding the $100 billion asset threshold.

    Answer

    The decrease in loan yields is mainly due to nonaccruals; there's minimal accretion left. Yields should turn positive in Q4 and into '25 as incremental nonaccruals lessen and loans reprice higher. Regarding the $100B threshold, going below it doesn't immediately remove enhanced standards, and it's not a strategic goal. The decline in earning assets is more from deploying cash to pay down debt, not a significant decrease in the loan portfolio itself.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to NYCB leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked about the balance sheet size outlook, the timing of Category 4 stress testing, the near-term NIM forecast, future cash levels, the dilutive impact of warrants, and the reason for negative loan administration income.

    Answer

    The bank plans to remain above $100 billion in assets and expects to be part of the official Fed stress test in 2026. NIM is expected to drift slightly lower in the near term. Excess cash will be used to pay down wholesale borrowings. The impact of warrants is dependent on the share price, and loan administration income is expected to be zero after the mortgage servicing sale is complete.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to NYCB leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    Asked about the need for additional capital actions like issuing sub-debt to reach peer levels for total risk-based capital, balance sheet mix targets for cash and securities, the appropriateness of excluding multi-family from CRE concentration metrics, and the reason for the increased urgency in addressing the bank's status as a $100B+ institution.

    Answer

    The current focus for capital is on building CET1 through retained earnings and the dividend adjustment. The bank aims to increase its cash and securities to around 22-23% of assets to get closer to peer levels, which will be done in Q1/Q2. They acknowledged the point on CRE concentration but stressed their strategy will reduce it over time. The urgency stems from the Signature acquisition accelerating their entry into the Category IV bank class, requiring them to quickly align with enhanced prudential standards ahead of their April capital plan submission.

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    Matthew Breese's questions to NYCB leadership • Q3 2023

    Question

    Asked a wide range of questions on funding (wholesale borrowings), asset balances, credit (multifamily NPAs), the potential valuation impact from the FDIC's loan sale, and the size of the syndicated loan portfolio.

    Answer

    The bank plans to refinance maturing borrowings, expects asset balances to stabilize in Q1 2024, sees multifamily NPAs as isolated issues, does not expect the FDIC loan sale to impact their own valuation, and clarified that it uses syndication primarily as a risk management tool to sell down positions.

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