Matthew Erdner

Matthew Erdner inquired about FrontView REIT's expectations for gross and net investment/disposition levels in 2026, given that most portfolio optimization occurred in 2025, and the anticipated pace of capital deployment.

Answer

Stephen Preston (Chairman and CEO) stated that after $80 million in dispositions in 2025, 2026 dispositions are expected to be lower, around $30 million-$40 million, continuing to prune the portfolio. He reiterated the dislocation between disposition cap rates (upper 6s) and the implied cap rate (low 8s). He projected Q1 net acquisitions around $25 million (closer to $35 million gross) and Q2 also around $25 million net, with this pace potentially driving the high end of guidance.

Matthew Erdner asked about FrontView REIT's expectations for gross acquisitions and dispositions in 2026, given that most portfolio optimization occurred in 2025. He also inquired about the projected pace of capital deployment for the first half of 2026.

Answer

Stephen Preston, Chairman & CEO, stated that after $80M in dispositions in 2025, 2026 dispositions are expected to decline materially to $30M-$40M, with similar cap rates, focusing on non-core assets. He clarified that core assets are not for sale. Stephen Preston, Chairman & CEO, projected Q1 net acquisitions around $25M (gross $35M with dispositions) and Q2 net acquisitions also around $25M, with potential for variation.

Matthew Erdner asked about Angel Oak Mortgage REIT's capital allocation strategy between non-QM loans and HELOCs, inquiring about the best risk-reward opportunities, the current Return on Equity (ROE) for each securitization type, and a quarter-to-date book value update.

Answer

CEO Sreeniwas Prabhu indicated a healthy mix, noting better IRRs for HELOCs but a long-term focus on non-QM due to cleaner credit. CFO Brandon Filson specified non-QM securitization ROEs in the mid-to-high teens, with HELOCs 5-7 points higher in the low 20s. Mr. Filson also stated that book value modestly increased quarter-to-date from December 31st.

Matthew Erdner inquired about Angel Oak Mortgage REIT's capital allocation strategy, specifically where the company sees the best risk-reward opportunities between whole loan portfolio purchases (non-QM) and HELOCs, given their differing coupon rates. He also asked about the ROEs on non-QM and HELOC securitizations and for a quarter-to-date book value update.

Answer

CEO Sreeniwas Prabhu explained that while HELOCs offer better IRRs and relative value, non-QM remains the long-term focus due to cleaner credit, with HELOCs used selectively for alpha. CFO Brandon Filson stated that non-QM securitizations yield mid-to-high teens ROEs, while HELOCs are 5-7 points higher, in the low 20s. Mr. Filson also confirmed that book value has modestly increased quarter-to-date from December 31.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading asked about the pace and characteristics of loan purchases following the April securitization and whether the strategy of targeting higher-credit-quality loans has impacted acquisition costs.

Answer

CFO Brandon Filson stated that the securitization freed up capital for another $100-$150 million in loan purchases over the next couple of quarters. He noted that current loan coupons are in the high 7% range, range-bound between 7% and 8%, and that they have sufficient capital for these acquisitions before needing to do another commingled securitization.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the prepayment risk for 2021-2023 loan vintages in a lower rate environment, the potential incremental yield from re-securitizations, and the company's quarter-to-date book value.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Brandon Filson explained that the '21-'23 vintages, with coupons around 5.25%, are well-insulated and would require a significant rate drop of 150-200 basis points to trigger major prepayments. He noted that re-securitizing older deals could lift yields to around 15%. Filson also provided a quarter-to-date book value update, stating it was up approximately 3% net of the dividend as of late February.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the expected pace of securitizations, the execution details of the recent October transaction, and the sustainability of asset yields going forward.

Answer

CFO Brandon Filson stated that the company targets about one securitization per quarter, around $300 million in size. He confirmed the October deal had strong execution with a sub-5.5% cost of funds, where AOMR retained the IO position and other unrated bonds. CEO Sreeniwas Prabhu added that the non-QM securitization market remains strong. Filson noted that while asset coupons will fluctuate with rates, they expect to maintain a 15% to 20% ROE on a levered, securitized basis.

Matthew Erdner (JonesTrading) asked about the profile of AdamasTrust's borrowers in the rental space, particularly in light of potential bans on institutional investors, and the expected impact of such policies. He also inquired about share repurchase activity during the quarter and the company's outlook on agency leverage given tighter spread ranges.

Answer

Nicholas Mah, President, clarified that Constructive originates loans to individual investors, not large institutions, with borrowers typically owning less than 80 single-family properties, suggesting a potential ban would be positive for Constructive. Jason Serrano, CEO, confirmed no share repurchases in Q4, viewing them as a capital allocation decision weighed against investment opportunities. Jason Serrano also noted that agency leverage slightly declined to 7.7x, with a current trend towards the lower end of their historical 8x-8.5x range, subject to market conditions.

Matthew Erdner asked about future capital allocation, particularly as capital is recovered from called securities and resolved loans, following the recent agency investments. He also inquired about the impact of potential institutional investor bans on the rental product and Lima One's client base.

Answer

Bryan Wulfsohn (President and Chief Investment Officer) explained that while initial capital might go into agencies due to ease of deployment, the long-term target is non-QM and business purpose loan (BPL) asset classes. Regarding the rental product, he noted that Lima One does not lend to the largest institutional buyers and believes any ban could create opportunities for "mom and pops," potentially benefiting Lima One, though the outcome is unclear.

Matthew Erdner asked about MFA Financial's capital allocation strategy going forward, particularly as capital is recovered from called securities and resolved loans, given the recent investments in agency securities. He also inquired about the potential impact of proposed institutional bans on rental products on Lima One's client base and operations.

Answer

President and Chief Investment Officer Bryan Wulfsohn stated that while initial investments might increase in the agency portfolio, the long-term expectation is to target non-QM and Business Purpose Loan (BPL) asset classes as capital becomes available. Regarding the rental product, he noted that it's unclear if any institutional ban will materialize, but Lima One does not lend to the largest institutional buyers, suggesting that such a policy could create opportunities for smaller 'mom and pop' investors, which would be beneficial for Lima One.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC asked about BrightSpire Capital's perspective on compressed spreads and increased competition in the credit market, and also inquired about the timing and pacing of loan originations during Q4 2025.

Answer

Mike Mazzei, CEO, acknowledged ongoing severe competition but noted strong investor demand for CRE CLOs, which has led to tighter spreads. He anticipates loan spreads will likely stabilize, emphasizing that current ROEs remain acceptable given the company's financing and liability structure. Andrew Witt, President and COO, reiterated the strong demand, particularly for multifamily, but highlighted the CLO's flexibility for reinvestment across various property types. Regarding Q4 originations, Mazzei stated that activity became aggressive towards the end of the quarter, with many deals pulled forward from Q1, suggesting a potentially slower start to Q1 before picking up later in the year.

Matthew Erdner asked about BrightSpire Capital's perspective on compressed spreads and increased competition in the credit market, and the timing of loan originations during the fourth quarter.

Answer

CEO Michael Mazzei acknowledged severe competition as business as usual but highlighted incredible demand for CRE CLOs, which has kept spreads from widening despite supply. He noted that loan spreads have likely floored out, and the company is comfortable as long as ROEs are met. President and COO Andrew Witt added that their recent CLO was predominantly multifamily but allows reinvestment in various property types. Mazzei also stated that Q4 originations were aggressive towards the end of the quarter, with some deals pulled forward from Q1.

Matthew Erdner asked about the ROEs TPG Mortgage Investment Trust is currently seeing in securitizations compared to Q4, and the expected pace of securitization activity for the first half of the year.

Answer

Nick Smith, Chief Investment Officer, explained that the pace of securitizations depends on the return of equity capital, including $10-20 million organic, $28 million from commercial loans, and $35 million from call rights, providing significant dry powder for rotation into higher ROE strategies. He stated that TPG Mortgage Investment Trust's securitization ROEs are estimated to be 5-10% higher than competitors' low-to-mid-teens, consistent with historical performance, due to their unique market attachment.

Matthew Erdner (JonesTrading) asked about the current return on equity (ROE) for TPG Mortgage Investment Trust's securitizations compared to Q4 2025, and the anticipated pace of securitization activity during the first half of 2026.

Answer

Nick Smith, Chief Investment Officer, stated that MITT's securitization ROEs are currently 5%-10% higher than competitors' low-to-mid-teens, consistent with historical performance, attributing this to their unique market approach. He noted that the pace of securitizations in H1 2026 will depend on equity capital freed up from organic sources, commercial loans, and call rights, totaling approximately $45-$55 million.

Matthew Erdner from JonesTrading asked about the observed margin compression in GEO Group's electronic monitoring and supervision services, seeking clarification on whether it was primarily due to a mix shift within the ISAP program. He also inquired about the potential margin impact if a significant portion of ISAP participants were on higher-cost ankle monitors and the company's capital allocation strategy regarding share repurchases for the upcoming year.

Answer

Executive Chairman George Zoley attributed the margin compression primarily to a mix shift, with a reduction in lower-cost phone apps and a significant increase in higher-priced ankle monitors and case management services. He confirmed that margins would substantially increase with a higher proportion of ankle monitors, noting GEO Group's manufacturing capability to scale up. CFO Mark Suchinski reiterated GEO Group's commitment to a balanced capital allocation, prioritizing growth, debt reduction, and shareholder returns, and confirmed continued aggressiveness in buybacks when stock valuations are low.

Matthew Erdner from JonesTrading asked about the compression in ISAP monitoring margins, specifically the decline from nearly 50% to 42.5% quarter-over-quarter, and whether this is primarily due to a mix shift. He also sought clarification on potential margin impacts if ISAP participant levels increased significantly, particularly with a higher proportion of ankle monitors, and questioned the company's capital allocation strategy for share repurchases given the 2026 share count guidance.

Answer

Executive Chairman George Zoley explained that the margin compression is primarily due to a mix shift, with a reduction in lower-cost phone app usage and a significant increase in higher-priced ankle monitors and case management services. He noted that ankle monitors are the most expensive devices, and a higher mix would substantially increase margins, confirming GEO's capability to scale production. CEO Mark Suchinski reiterated GEO's balanced capital allocation strategy, prioritizing growth, debt reduction, and shareholder returns, and affirmed the company's intent to be aggressive with buybacks when stock valuations are low.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading asked how The GEO Group is positioning itself to secure management contracts at government-owned facilities, particularly as private sector bed capacity approaches its limits.

Answer

Executive Chairman George Zoley stated that while the company's preference is to own and reactivate its own high-quality idle facilities, they are prepared for other opportunities. CEO David Donahue added that The GEO Group has entered into teaming agreements with an established Department of Defense contractor to position the company to pursue potential procurements for operational support services at military or other government sites.

Matthew Erdner asked about the impact of the Lake & Riley Act on electronic monitoring, the prioritization of ankle monitors versus other technologies at subsidiary BI Inc., potential supply chain constraints, and the revenue contribution from monitoring within the company's incremental guidance.

Answer

Executive Chairman George Zoley explained that the Lake & Riley Act mandates detention, with the ISAP monitoring program serving as the alternative for those who cannot be detained. He confirmed an initial preference for higher-security ankle monitors and stated that the company has not identified any significant supply chain issues. CFO Mark Suchinski and Zoley clarified that approximately $250 million of the projected $800 million to $1 billion in incremental revenue is expected from the monitoring segment, contingent on participant counts rising significantly.

Matthew Erdner with JonesTrading inquired about FBRT's capital allocation strategy given current spread compression and the success of the Conduit business, specifically asking if origination would be muted. He also asked about the dividend reset as a baseline for future earnings and the target core portfolio size by year-end for dividend coverage.

Answer

CEO Michael Comparato clarified that FBRT is not slowing down origination but is strategically shifting the mix away from commodity multifamily loans to areas like construction lending to avoid the tightest market spreads. He stated the goal is a core book of $4.8 billion to $5 billion by year-end, emphasizing that the dividend reset is not indicative of steady-state earnings, as the company expects earnings to grow towards $0.35-$0.36 per share, despite slower-than-anticipated REO dispositions.

Matthew Erdner with JonesTrading inquired about FBRT's capital allocation strategy amidst spread compression and successful conduit business, specifically asking how the company plans to manage originations if the core portfolio growth is muted. He also asked if the new $0.20 dividend represents a baseline for future run-rate earnings and what ideal core portfolio size FBRT aims for by year-end to achieve dividend coverage.

Answer

CEO Michael Comparato clarified that FBRT is actively originating loans but is selectively focusing on areas like construction lending rather than commodity multifamily loans due to tight spreads. He stated the company has a $1.7 billion pipeline and is not slowing down. Regarding the dividend, Comparato explained that the $0.20 dividend is not the steady-state earnings, as FBRT expects earnings to grow higher, aiming for $0.35-$0.36 per share. He projected the core portfolio to reach $4.8 billion to $5 billion by year-end, emphasizing that the dividend reset was to stabilize book value and match current earnings, not due to a change in long-term earnings potential.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading inquired about the resumption and pace of originations following the NewPoint acquisition, the ideal portfolio size to achieve dividend coverage, and current lending spreads compared to a year ago.

Answer

Michael Comparato, President, confirmed that originations have resumed and will ramp up in conjunction with calling CLOs. Jerome Baglien, CFO & COO, added that the target portfolio size is approximately $5 billion, which would be funded by unlocking equity from these CLOs. Mr. Comparato noted that spreads are significantly tighter, around 100-125 basis points lower than a year ago and 25-50 basis points tighter than just 60-90 days ago.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading inquired about the resumption and pace of loan originations following the NewPoint acquisition, the target portfolio size needed for dividend coverage, and current market spreads.

Answer

Michael Comparato, President, confirmed that originations have resumed and will ramp up as the company calls its CLOs. Jerome Baglien, CFO & COO, stated the target portfolio size is around $5 billion, achieved by deploying an additional $500 million+ in net originations. Comparato noted that credit spreads are 100-125 basis points tighter than a year ago due to a "deluge of liquidity" in the market.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading asked about FBRT's near-term loan origination strategy, the use of proceeds from REO sales, the drivers of Q1 expenses, and the methodology for deciding whether to hold or sell REO assets.

Answer

President Michael Comparato confirmed that capital from REO sales would be proactively redeployed into new originations. CFO Jerome Baglien attributed higher Q1 expenses to a "double whammy" of NewPoint transaction costs and ongoing REO-related expenses. Comparato added that REO assets are evaluated case-by-case to maximize recovery, with a primary goal of redeploying capital to restore earnings power.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the tightening of loan spreads, their expected settlement point, and the drivers behind the trend. He also asked for clarification on the quarterly run rate for 'other expenses' following a sequential increase.

Answer

Michael Comparato, President, explained that floating rate credit spreads have likely tightened as much as they reasonably can, but whole dollar coupons remain attractive due to higher base rates. He noted that liability-side spreads are tightening in lockstep. Jerome Baglien, CFO & COO, clarified that the rise in 'other expenses' is primarily due to REO flow-through costs, which are largely offset by REO income and should be modeled based on the pace of REO asset sales.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the increase in fixed-rate loans, the outlook for the conduit business amid rate volatility, and how FBRT views its available-for-sale securities portfolio as a source of liquidity.

Answer

President Michael Comparato explained that while the conduit business had an exceptional Q3, the recent rapid rise in interest rates will likely cause a temporary pause as investors digest the move. He noted that CMBS remains a cheap financing option. Regarding the available-for-sale securities, he stated that while they are a form of liquidity management, the returns are currently too strong to justify selling them, as they outperform potential whole loan originations.

Matthew Erdner inquired about current pricing expectations, particularly in the property segment where rate increases are moderating, and the potential impact on UFG Insurance's mid-teens Return on Equity (ROE) target. He also asked about the long-term target for the underwriting expense ratio, considering technology investments and operational efficiencies.

Answer

Julie Stephenson, EVP and COO, stated that while the market is more competitive, it remains rational, and UFG is achieving positive rates by adhering to disciplined risk selection and appropriate pricing. Eric Martin, EVP and CFO, indicated a near-term expense ratio run rate target of 35%, expecting a gradual reduction of approximately 0.5 points per year with 10% growth due to ongoing actions and efficiencies.

Matthew Erdner from JonesTrading inquired about the impact of moderating rate increases, particularly in the property segment, on current pricing expectations and the company's ability to achieve its mid-teens Return on Equity (ROE) targets. He also asked about the long-term target for the underwriting expense ratio, considering technological investments and operational efficiencies.

Answer

EVP and COO Julie Stephenson stated that while the market is more competitive, it remains reasonably rational, with UFG still achieving positive rates through disciplined underwriting and risk selection. EVP and CFO Eric Martin indicated a near-term expense ratio target run rate of 35%, expecting a gradual reduction of approximately 0.5 points per year over the next several years, driven by 10% growth and ongoing efficiency actions.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC inquired about UFG's current pricing power to counter inflation in material and labor costs, and also asked about the levers available to manage the elevated underwriting expense ratio.

Answer

EVP and COO Julie Stephenson explained that the company closely monitors trends, with current rates exceeding their view of net loss trends, providing a cushion. EVP and CFO Eric Martin detailed that the expense ratio was elevated by about one point due to final costs for a new policy administration system, which will not recur. He also cited investments in talent and higher agent performance compensation, noting that future premium growth will provide leverage against fixed costs, helping to normalize the ratio over time.

Matthew Erdner asked about the current validity of the previously stated deposit potential from slot machines ($2.5 million per 100 machines), the expected inflection point for net interest margin as slot clients are onboarded, and the impact of the government shutdown on Q4 2025 SBA origination numbers and potential Q1 2026 effects.

Answer

Edward Nigro, Chairman and CEO, clarified that the $2.5 million deposit figure for 100 slot machines represents a mature market with 50% penetration, noting that onboarding and customer education will take time. He also discussed the broader PPA opportunities beyond slots, including other clients and state lotteries, and the potential for sports betting apps to eventually offload cash management to GBank. Regarding the SBA shutdown, Edward Nigro explained that Q4 originations dropped significantly to $118 million due to customer uncertainty, despite efforts to pre-approve loans, and anticipated similar challenges if another shutdown occurs.

Matthew Erdner, an analyst at JonesTrading, asked for an update on the slot machine opportunity, specifically if the previous estimate of $2.5 million in deposits per 100 slot machines still holds true as GBank begins onboarding clients. He followed up on the deposit mix and net interest margin, asking if an inflection point in the net interest margin is expected as more slot machines are onboarded, driving an increase in non-interest-bearing deposits. Additionally, Erdner inquired about the impact of the government shutdown on SBA origination numbers in Q4 and the anticipated impact of a potential future shutdown on Q1 originations.

Answer

Edward Nigro, Chairman and CEO, clarified that the $2.5 million deposit estimate per 100 slot machines represents a mature market with 50% customer penetration, and the ramp-up time for gaming operators to onboard customers is an unknown. He emphasized that the system works well and has received positive feedback, but it will take time to gather historical data on growth. Nigro also highlighted 16 other PPA clients, some dealing with sports apps and state lotteries, as additional avenues for non-interest-bearing deposits, and reiterated the belief that sports betting apps might eventually seek GBank's solution for cash management and consumer protection. Regarding the government shutdown, Nigro explained that it significantly reduced Q4 SBA originations to $118 million (from over $200 million in Q3) because customers delayed applications, and sales were also impacted. Jeffery Whicker, EVP and CFO, added that the timing of originations in September skewed the Q4 sales figures.

Matthew Erdner asked about the primary levers Seaport Entertainment Group plans to pull to achieve profitability, the current demand and tenant mix for leasing available spaces, the expected timing for new tenant openings, and the strategy for continuing to attract special events like the Macy's 4th of July Fireworks and the New York City Wine and Food Festival to drive exposure and awareness for the Seaport district.

Answer

President and CEO Matt Partridge explained that key profitability levers include getting new tenants open and paying rent, continuing leasing momentum for the remaining 100,000 sq ft (including the Nike space in 2027), and optimizing operational models and G&A for efficiencies. He noted strong demand for F&B operators, with a shift towards traditional retail and legacy F&B, focusing on the right partners. Openings are expected to gain velocity in the latter half of the year, with a goal to have most tenants open before Meow Wolf. Partridge emphasized that special events are crucial for marketing, drawing visitors who might not otherwise consider the Seaport, and positioning it as a cultural and experiential destination, with plans to bring back and expand these events through diverse programming and partnerships.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading asked about the opportunity set for the new senior HELOC product, the board's thinking on the dividend given recent over-earning, and for a quarter-to-date book value update.

Answer

CEO Laurence Penn described the new HELOC as a unique product with good potential but declined to offer projections. Regarding the dividend, Penn expressed confidence in continued coverage by earnings and stated the next move would likely be up, though the board values stability and would not make such a decision lightly. CFO JR Herlihy confirmed no quarter-to-date book value was provided but noted Q3 was off to a strong start.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the expected pace of securitizations and the execution quality on recent proprietary reverse mortgage deals. He also asked where the company is currently seeing the best opportunities and for more detail on its plans in the HELOC and second lien markets.

Answer

CEO Laurence Penn expressed satisfaction with the execution of their reverse mortgage securitizations, noting they have repeat buyers. Co-Chief Investment Officer Mark Tecotzky projected a pace of 4-6 non-QM securitizations for the upcoming year. He further explained that the HELOC and second lien sectors represent a significant opportunity, where EFC will apply its non-QM playbook: acquiring loans for levered net interest margin, followed by securitizing them to lock in favorable, non-recourse financing while retaining high-yielding tranches and valuable call rights.

Asked for reasons behind the underperformance of municipal bonds and for guidance on the pace of investments into the BlackRock joint venture.

Answer

Management attributed muni bond underperformance to high supply and issues with two large high-yield deals (BrightLine and American Dream Mall). For the BlackRock JV, they stated the strategy is consistent with their historical business and, while not providing specific guidance, expect the pace of deployment to increase in the second half of the year, consistent with historical trends for private activity volume cap allocations.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading inquired about the fundamental drivers behind the municipal bond market's recent underperformance and asked for an update on the investment pace and strategy for the BlackRock joint venture.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Rogozinski attributed the muni market's underperformance to a significant increase in new supply outpacing investment demand and negative news surrounding two large high-yield deals (BrightLine and American Dream Mall) creating investor concern. Regarding the JV, he explained its strategy mirrors GHI's traditional construction financing for affordable housing and noted that while no specific guidance on pace is given, activity typically accelerates in the second half of the year due to state private activity volume cap allocations.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the timing of investment redemptions in 2025 and asked for perspective on how potential tax changes from the current administration could impact deal supply.

Answer

CFO Jesse Coury detailed that significant redemptions occurred in January 2025 (~$82M) with another ~$160M expected in the back half of the year, noting the capital would be redeployed quickly. CEO Kenneth Rogozinski added that redemption timing can be influenced by sponsors extending loans to maximize their permanent financing. On tax policy, Rogozinski stated the industry is more proactive with lobbying this time and that any major changes could create market uncertainty and a potential rush to issue bonds.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the potential impact of the upcoming change in presidential administration on fiscal policy, credit, and new issuance, and also asked for details on the capital deployment strategy and timeline for the new BlackRock joint venture.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Rogozinski stated it is too early to determine the fiscal policy impact but noted historical bipartisan support for the low-income housing tax credit program. Regarding the BlackRock JV, he explained that it provides a dedicated pool of capital for the same construction loan products GHI has historically offered, allowing the partnership to serve its client base more efficiently without needing to raise capital directly from its own balance sheet for this purpose.

Matthew Erdner from Jones Trading inquired about the company's internal goals for cross-selling ancillary services and asked for an indication of expected usage for the upcoming RealWallet credit product in the U.S.

Answer

CEO Tamir Poleg stated that meaningful ancillary adoption will be driven by product enhancements, not just traditional sales efforts. He noted the strategic shift to state-based title JVs is showing encouraging signs. CFO Ravi Jani clarified current attach rates are 4% for title and 1% for mortgage. Regarding RealWallet, Tamir Poleg explained the U.S. lending product will roll out in stages and pointed to the $4 million in credit extended in Canada as an indicator of potential demand, given the U.S. agent base is ten times larger.

Matthew Erdner asked for an update on the agent recruitment pipeline and onboarding times for new teams, and also inquired about the priority and potential revenue from expanding ancillary services like title and mortgage to all 50 states.

Answer

CEO Tamir Poleg confirmed the agent pipeline remains strong with no significant change in onboarding times. He also explained the company is not currently focused on expanding ancillary services to all 50 states, but rather on improving service and execution in existing markets, noting a strategic pivot to statewide JVs for title. CFO Ravi Jani added that investments in the agent success team have smoothed the onboarding process for larger teams.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the Real Wallet initiative, asking about its margin profile, the strategy for increasing agent adoption from 2,500 to 5,000, and whether the Q4 operating expense level is a good run rate for 2025 given planned growth.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Tamir Poleg stated that Real Wallet, which soft-launched in late 2024, has not been heavily marketed yet. He expects adoption to grow with the rollout of new features like tax accounts and U.S. credit lines, anticipating a move from 2,500 to 5,000 agents in the next few months. CFO Michelle Ressler specified that the wallet is a high-margin business at around 90% gross margin. Regarding OpEx, she noted that while it will grow in 2025 due to investments, the company remains focused on growing gross profit at a faster rate and driving profitability.

Matthew Erdner pointed out that ancillary services revenue, despite strong growth, remains a small fraction of total revenue and asked if management has a target for this segment's contribution.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Tamir Poleg stated that the long-term goal is to achieve double-digit attach rates for ancillary services, a significant increase from the current low single-digit levels. He explained that the new AI-powered tools, Leo Copilot and Leo for Clients, are expected to be the primary drivers of this increase, with a more meaningful impact anticipated in the second half of 2025. He believes Real's integrated technology platform can ultimately surpass industry benchmarks for ancillary attachment.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading inquired about the expected timing for loan payoffs and asset sales to fund capital redeployment and a potential new CLO. He also asked about current market opportunities and guidance on achievable loan spreads, noting recent compression in the multifamily sector.

Answer

Mark Fogel, President, CEO & Director, reiterated the company's goal to grow the portfolio by $300 million to $500 million by year-end, funded by loan payoffs and REO sales. He acknowledged that while spreads are compressed in certain sectors like Class A multifamily, ACRES can still find opportunities in other areas to achieve its target ROE.

Matthew Erdner asked about the nature of the $115.9 million in loan payoffs during the quarter, future payoff expectations, and the outlook for portfolio growth and investment opportunities, particularly in multifamily.

Answer

Mark Fogel, President and CEO, confirmed the payoffs were expected and resulted from refinancings and asset sales, indicating a healthy portfolio. He reiterated expectations for $300 million to $500 million in net portfolio growth for the year, driven by a strong pipeline in multifamily as well as other asset classes like student housing and self-storage.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading inquired about the outlook for loan payoffs, net portfolio growth targets, current investment opportunities, and the company's strategy for reinvesting proceeds from refinanced CLOs.

Answer

President and CEO Mark Fogel confirmed expectations for additional loan payoffs and projected the portfolio would grow from $1.5 billion to a range of $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion by year-end, citing strong activity in multifamily, hospitality, and self-storage. Chairman Andrew Fentress added that new CLO structures will feature a revolving period of at least 24 months to facilitate future loan originations.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading inquired about the leasing strategy for the remaining anchor spaces, particularly regarding tenant credit evaluation. He also asked about potential risks to recognizing the signed-not-open pipeline income in 2026 and sought clarification on unfunded commitments within the structured investment portfolio.

Answer

President & CEO John Albright described the current leasing environment as strong, with a focus on simpler deals with creditworthy, household-name tenants. He expressed confidence in future rent recognition, noting that low in-place rents on expiring leases present mark-to-market opportunities rather than risks. He also confirmed the unfunded commitment amount and highlighted a construction loan property as a 'shadow acquisition pipeline' opportunity.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading questioned what factors would drive investment volume to the high end of the company's guidance range and inquired about the strategy for using the credit facility to fund these investments.

Answer

Executive John Albright explained that reaching the high end of investment guidance would be driven by a combination of strong leasing activity, more properties coming to market, and future asset recycling. He confirmed that acquisitions would initially be funded via the credit facility, noting strong bank support and the ability to term out borrowings to quickly restore liquidity.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading asked for a reminder of the development plan for the 10 acres of land adjacent to The Collection at Forsyth. He also inquired whether CTO anticipates exercising its right of first refusal on any of its structured loan properties.

Answer

Executive John Albright explained that CTO is in negotiations with several large, complementary tenants for the 10 acres it owns, with a deal expected within three months and earnings contribution targeted for late 2026 or 2027. He also stated there is a high likelihood that CTO will exercise its right of first refusal to acquire the neighboring Whole Foods development, as it is a strong complement to The Collection.

Matthew Erdner from Jones Trading inquired about the expected mix of investments between properties and loans for the remainder of the year, and asked how proceeds from early loan payoffs would be deployed.

Answer

John Albright, President & CEO, responded that structured loan investments appear more imminent than property acquisitions due to a competitive market. He confirmed that proceeds from loan payoffs and asset sales are used to pay down the credit facility to maintain reasonable leverage while pursuing new accretive investments.

Matthew Erdner asked about the potential impact of tariffs on the timing and process of closing deals, particularly for retail assets. He also questioned what factors would drive the company's performance toward the high end of its investment guidance.

Answer

John Albright, an executive, stated that the company is not currently seeing any significant disruption from tariff issues on tenant activity or deal flow, noting that many tenants like restaurants are insulated. He explained that reaching the high end of guidance would be catalyzed by the successful disposition of two non-income-producing assets, a Party City and a theater in Reno, which would free up capital for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Matthew Erdner from JonesTrading inquired about the current going-in cap rates for property acquisitions, excluding loans, and whether the 2025 investment plan would continue the strategy of blending strong credit tenants with higher-yield loans.

Answer

CEO John Albright responded that property acquisition cap rates are averaging close to 8%, though the company did acquire a lower-cap-rate Lowe's to enhance portfolio quality and diversification. He confirmed that the 'barbell' strategy of pursuing both stable, investment-grade assets and higher-yielding opportunities, including loans, will 'absolutely' continue in 2025.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading questioned the geographic trends in transaction activity, noting the shift in exposure between Florida and Texas, and asked if the recent hurricanes in Florida might create future acquisition opportunities.

Answer

Executive Philip Mays responded that transaction activity is not concentrated in any single geography but is prevalent in major states like Texas and Florida, where pricing can be competitive due to 1031 buyer demand. Executive John Albright added that while they are not currently seeing specific acquisition opportunities arising from the hurricanes, they are actively monitoring the market for any unique circumstances that may emerge.

Matthew Erdner from Jones Trading Institutional Services LLC inquired about the outlook for the residential credit business, asking if Q3 securitization volume is tracking in line with Q2 and what the margin expectations are. He also asked if tightening the credit box would affect volumes.

Answer

Co-CIO & Head of Residential Credit Mike Fania stated that the capital markets for non-agency securitizations remain robust and healthy, noting a recent transaction priced at the tightest levels post-volatility. While not providing specific margin figures, he indicated returns are in the mid-teens on deployed capital. Fania acknowledged that while tightening credit may have moderated growth, the company is comfortable with its current ~15% market share and volume run-rate.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading asked about the outlook for the residential credit business, specifically if Q3 issuance was tracking in line with Q2 and what the margin expectations were.

Answer

Co-CIO Mike Fania confirmed that the non-agency securitization market remains robust and healthy, citing recent tight pricing on a transaction. While not providing specific margin figures, he explained their model targets mid-teens returns on deployed capital and expressed comfort with their current origination volumes and market share.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC inquired about Annaly's strategy to maintain and grow market share in the non-agency space amid rising competition, and their ambitions in the second lien and HELOC product markets.

Answer

Co-CIO Mike Fania highlighted their competitive advantages: certainty of execution, stable capital, robust infrastructure, and strong relationships with large non-bank originators. He confirmed they expect a HELOC transaction in Q1 but view the closed-end second lien market as highly competitive, with their primary focus remaining on first-lien non-QM and DSCR loans.

Matthew Erdner from JonesTrading asked how Annaly plans to maintain and grow its market share in the non-agency space amid rising competition, and also inquired about its strategic ambitions in second lien and HELOC products.

Answer

Co-CIO Michael Fania highlighted that Annaly's competitive advantages are its certainty of execution and stable capital, which appeal to correspondent lenders, particularly large non-banks. He stated they expect a HELOC transaction in Q1 but see the closed-end second lien market as highly competitive on price, with their primary focus remaining on first-lien non-QM and DSCR loans.

Matthew Erdner from Jones Trading asked what specific conditions or catalysts the company is looking for to increase its portfolio leverage, which is currently below historical levels.

Answer

Co-CIO Desmond Macauley cited spread attractiveness, market volatility, and liquidity conditions as key factors. With spreads wide and conditions stable, he noted they are comfortable with a modest increase. CEO Scott Ulm added that while they avoid 'big bets,' greater market stability could justify higher leverage. Co-CIO Sergey Losyev mentioned increased bank demand for MBS as a potential major catalyst.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading asked for clarification on the timing of multifamily mezzanine loan redemptions and the company's long-term capital allocation plans for the proceeds.

Answer

President Nicholas Mah clarified the 10% payoff figure for the multifamily mezzanine portfolio was year-to-date as of early April and that he expects robust payoff rates to continue in 2025. For capital allocation, Mah highlighted a near-term preference for Agency RMBS but emphasized maintaining flexibility, stating that a specific long-term target is difficult to set in the current market and decisions will be based on the best available risk-adjusted returns.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading requested an update on the resolution plan for the four remaining multifamily JV assets and asked about the ideal capital allocation between the agency and residential credit strategies going forward.

Answer

CEO Jason Serrano detailed that two Florida assets are currently being marketed for sale, while two Texas assets will be held longer to realize value from recent occupancy improvements before a sale later in the year. He also stated that capital from the running-off mezzanine portfolio would be reallocated with a higher allocation to the Agency RMBS market over residential credit, reversing the trend from the previous quarter.

Matthew Erdner inquired about the pace of capital deployment during the first quarter and asked where AGNC sees the best opportunity in the mortgage coupon stack currently.

Answer

Peter Federico, President, CEO, and CIO, stated that capital was deployed around January into mortgages concentrated in the 5% and 5.5% coupon area. He said AGNC continues to favor the intermediate part of the coupon stack for its prepayment protection and carry. He also noted that improving TBA dollar roll financing could lead to holding more TBAs.

Matthew Erdner asked about the company's strategic preference between CLO equity and debt for future capital deployment and inquired about the target leverage range once the portfolio is fully invested in CLOs.

Answer

Head of Corporate Credit Gregory Borenstein explained the portfolio has already shifted from mezzanine debt to new-issue equity and would only pivot back to mezz if a more significant market sell-off occurred. CEO Laurence Penn stated that an initial leverage of half a turn (0.5x) is a reasonable estimate, with potential to increase it later by accessing the unsecured note market, which offers better terms for closed-end funds.

Matthew Erdner of JonesTrading questioned Seven Hills' dividend coverage in light of its portfolio strategy, which targets $100 million in net originations against $200 million in expected payoffs. He also sought clarity on the visibility and timing of these loan repayments, noting a significant portion of the portfolio is scheduled to mature in 2025.

Answer

CFO and Treasurer Fernando Diaz explained that the Board reviews the dividend quarterly based on market conditions and portfolio activity. President and CIO Thomas Lorenzini added that the pace of loan production is critical for dividend support, detailing a pipeline of new loans expected to close in Q1 and Q2. Regarding payoffs, Lorenzini confirmed the company has strong visibility through monthly sponsor communications and expects the bulk of the $200 million in repayments to occur in the second half of 2025.

Matthew Erdner from JonesTrading inquired about the company's outlook on GSE reform, the potential actions of the new FHFA Director, and the expected impact on the GSEs' market footprint.

Answer

Executive David Spector stated that while it's early to predict policy changes, PMT is prepared for various outcomes. He expressed excitement about the current opportunity to organically create investments through private label securitizations of investor and second home loans, driven by favorable market conditions. Spector also mentioned plans for a jumbo loan securitization and a bullish outlook on PMT's growth potential.

Matthew Erdner of Jones Trading inquired about the opportunity for loan sales, the gain-on-sale margins being achieved, and the expected pace of sales for the upcoming year.

Answer

CBO Anthony Kim responded that future sales depend on market conditions. He noted that in 2024, the company sold $88.4 million in residential mortgage loans with premiums ranging from 2.0% to 2.4%. He stated that Hanmi will continue to explore opportunities to sell a similar volume in 2025.

Matthew Erdner asked about the significant increase in loans held for sale, particularly the nonaccrual portion. He also inquired about the future strategy for opportunistic loan sales and recent trends in gain-on-sale margins.

Answer

Executive Bonita Lee clarified that the nonaccrual loan held for sale was sold post-quarter-end with no expected further loss, as it was fully reserved. She confirmed future sales would likely continue in the residential mortgage space. CFO Romolo Santarosa added that gain-on-sale premiums have been stable for both SBA and residential loans, and the strategy is aimed at diversifying revenue streams rather than solely managing the loan-to-deposit ratio.

Asked about the portfolio's composition (specifically office and commercial exposure) after the planned loan sale, sought clarification on the resulting nonaccrual balance, and inquired about capital allocation priorities between share repurchases, the Shem Creek investment, and new lending.

Answer

The loan sale will reduce office exposure by over $10 million. The company views its stock as undervalued and is pausing new lending until 2025, pending the availability of accretive capital. They remain focused on residential lending but are currently being very selective and managing the business through the loan sale.

Asked for confirmation of portfolio growth numbers, payoff expectations, the strategy for deploying cash versus holding it, and the status of their credit facilities.

Answer

The Q2 portfolio growth numbers were confirmed. Payoffs are expected to result in about $20M of net portfolio growth for the rest of the year. The current strategy is to prioritize holding cash ('cash is king') for defensive purposes over aggressive new lending. They have a good relationship with their credit facility provider and could potentially upsize, but are not actively seeking more liquidity unless the terms are very favorable.

Matthew Erdner inquired about quarter-to-date occupancy trends, the expected revenue impact from transitioning off the Wyndham platform, and the timing for signing new property agreements.

Answer

CEO Shanoop Kothari stated Q1 occupancy was 77%, impacted by seasonality in January but improving in February, and he does not expect a negative revenue impact from the Wyndham exit. He noted the new agreement pipeline is "back half-loaded" and the company will now announce properties at opening, not signing. COO Robert Origo added that the upside potential from transient demand in strong New York seasons outweighs any loss from the transition.

Matthew Erdner inquired about quarter-to-date occupancy trends, the potential revenue impact from the Wyndham transition, and the timing for new property agreements in the pipeline.

Answer

Executive Shanoop Kothari reported Q1 occupancy at 77% and stated the Wyndham de-platforming is expected to have no negative impact on revenues. COO Robert Origo added that strong transient demand in key markets like New York should more than offset any lost business. Regarding the pipeline, Kothari noted a strategic shift to announcing new properties upon opening, not before, and indicated that new additions would likely be 'back half-loaded' for the year.

Asked about the current pipeline of opportunities, the role of Wyndham in developing that pipeline, and for insights into Q4 occupancy expectations and strategies to improve occupancy in seasonal markets.

Answer

The company has a robust pipeline of approximately 5,000 keys under LOI, with Wyndham actively assisting in sourcing and underwriting. To improve occupancy, they are focusing on property-level initiatives like grab-and-go offerings, improving online reviews, and having management more deeply involved in operations, especially in seasonal markets like Miami.