Matthew Roberts

Matthew Roberts asked why respiratory was the top-ranked therapeutic category by weighted value in the pharma pipeline, given strong growth in nasal reformulation, inquiring if it's a function of growth rate, revenue base, or specific themes driving respiratory drugs.

Answer

CEO Stephan Tanda explained that respiratory is a large and important business undergoing a change in propellants with lower greenhouse warming potential, which might make it disproportionately larger. He also highlighted that systemic nasal drug delivery, while growing rapidly, started from a near-zero base, making its current high ranking significant.

Matthew Roberts asked why respiratory was the top-ranked therapeutic category by weighted value in the pharma pipeline, given the strong growth in systemic nasal drug delivery, inquiring if it was a function of growth rate, revenue base, or specific themes driving respiratory drugs.

Answer

President and CEO Stephan Tanda explained that respiratory is a large and important existing business undergoing a change in propellant with lower greenhouse warming potential, which might make it disproportionately larger. He also highlighted that systemic nasal drug delivery, while growing strongly, started from a near-zero base a few years ago, making its current high ranking on the list good news.

In a follow-up, Matthew Roberts of Raymond James Financial asked about the growth contribution from a specific nasally delivered depression medication and its influence on the long-term pharma growth rate.

Answer

President, CEO & Executive Director Stephan Tanda confirmed their nasal delivery system enables the successful drug and contributes to growth. Executive VP & CFO Vanessa Kanu clarified that this product is included within the 'emergency medicine' category, which in total represents about 5% of sales.

Matthew Roberts of Raymond James asked if lower discretionary spending or tariffs were impacting the prestige fragrance market in Europe. He also questioned how the evolving drug approval landscape affects Aptar's long-term 7%-11% core growth target for the Pharma segment.

Answer

President and CEO Stephan Tanda stated that Aptar's 'in-region, for-region' supply chain mitigates tariff impacts, which are passed on. He noted that while there's some launch uncertainty, a solid Q2 is expected for Beauty. Regarding regulations, he explained that long project timelines buffer the company from short-term approval delays and reaffirmed confidence in the long-term Pharma growth target, highlighting that tariff issues are also creating new business opportunities.

Matthew Roberts sought more detail on the expected 2025 core sales growth for the Injectables business given the 'gradual ramp-up,' and asked whether growth in proprietary drug delivery systems would be driven more by new drugs or by secular trends for existing products.

Answer

President and CFO Stephan Tanda reiterated that the Injectables pipeline and order book are strong but the company is being cautious with the Q1 ramp-up. For proprietary systems, he confirmed the 'core engine of Pharma is fully humming,' with growth from emergency medicines, central nervous system drugs, and the underlying allergic rhinitis franchise driving performance.

Matthew Roberts inquired about the non-apparel Intelligent Labels categories, specifically if general retail compliance rollouts paused in 2025 are returning in 2026, and the status of logistics automation deployment and expansion of pilots.

Answer

President and CEO Deon Stander stated that general retail compliance, impacted by tariffs, should return as a tailwind if tariff policies remain stable. In logistics, last-mile fulfillment centers are fully automated, with discussions ongoing for international operations and 'first mile' opportunities. He confirmed that other logistics pilots are expanding to broader ranges of fulfillment centers and new use cases.

Matthew Roberts asked about potential cost impacts from tariffs on the broader RFID supply chain, including suppliers of wafers, readers, or printers, and whether such cost increases could create uncertainty and delay the timing of new program rollouts.

Answer

CEO Deon Stander stated that the company does not anticipate substantial tariff impacts on the core components of the RFID supply chain that would deter new rollouts. He emphasized that the return on investment for these programs is typically so strong, paying back within a year, that minor cost increases are unlikely to be a deterrent for customers.

Matthew Roberts asked about the drivers behind the Q4 acceleration in general retail IL and deceleration in apparel IL, and how to think about the progression of each in 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Deon Stander attributed the general retail acceleration to a large retailer driving compliance, a trend expected to continue. The apparel IL slowdown was due to minor program timing shifts into 2025. For 2025, he anticipates continued strong growth in general retail and low double-digit growth in apparel IL. SVP & Interim CFO Danny Allouche added that apparel IL growth should accelerate as 2025 progresses.

Matthew Roberts asked about the timeline for expanding the Kroger RFID program beyond the bakery department and whether 2025 financial performance is expected to align with the company's long-term framework of 5% top-line and 10% EPS growth.

Answer

CEO Deon Stander stated the immediate focus is on the bakery rollout, with an expectation to later move to categories like proteins and leafy greens, but stressed the rollout will be uneven over time. CFO Gregory Lovins confirmed that the early view for 2025 aligns with the 10% adjusted EPS growth algorithm from their Investor Day, citing normalized apparel volumes and continued IL growth as key drivers.

Matthew Roberts asked about the potential impact of divesting the North American Beverage business on the company's procurement synergy targets from the Berry Global acquisition.

Answer

CEO Peter Konieczny stated that a potential divestment of the North American Beverage business would not materially impact the company's ability to achieve its procurement synergy goals. He explained that legacy Berry buys very little PET resin, the primary material for the beverage business, and reaffirmed the total synergy target of $650 million.

Matthew Roberts inquired about the potential timing of the announced portfolio pruning initiative and how the current uncertain demand environment might affect it.

Answer

CEO Peter Konieczny confirmed that the portfolio review is actively progressing but must now be re-evaluated in the context of the newly combined Amcor-Berry entity. He stated that while the market environment will not stop the assessment, the timing for executing any divestitures is difficult to predict, and the company will remain disciplined.

Matthew Roberts of Raymond James Financial inquired about the volume impact from beef market headwinds on the Food segment for the second half and annually, and also sought details on the Protective segment's volume expectations.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Dustin Semach explained that the Food segment's main challenge is a consumer shift to retail, with the beef cycle impacting a specific ~$400 million portion of the business. He noted the overall Food volume outlook for H2 is down about two points from prior expectations. For the Protective segment, he expressed satisfaction with the Q2 volume performance, the most stable since 2021, but maintained a prudent outlook for the second half despite the progress.

Matthew Roberts questioned the pricing dynamics in both segments, asking about the competitive landscape in Protective post-churn and the impact of resin costs and competition on pricing in the Food segment.

Answer

President and CEO Dustin Semach responded that the net price outlook is largely unchanged, with most negative price realization concentrated in the Protective segment due to a competitive, low-volume environment. He noted that resin markets have stabilized following China's tariff exemption on polyethylene but remain inflationary for the year, an effect that is already incorporated into the company's formula-based pricing models.

Matthew Roberts inquired about the two planned plant closures, asking if they target specific product lines and how the company weighs trade-offs between maintaining underperforming assets versus investing in innovation. He also asked if more closures could be expected as part of the ongoing cost takeout efforts.

Answer

CEO Dustin Semach clarified that the two closures are part of network optimization within the Protective segment, aimed at improving the cost position through consolidation rather than exiting specific product lines. He stated that the company feels good about its current footprint, which is designed to serve key metropolitan markets. While not announcing further closures, he noted that such decisions are made thoughtfully, balancing short-term cost benefits with long-term strategic value, and the immediate focus is on driving volume back into the existing network.

Matthew Roberts inquired about the two planned plant closures, asking if they target specific product lines and how the company weighs trade-offs between maintaining underperforming assets and investing in innovation. He also questioned if more closures could be expected as part of the portfolio rebalancing in the complex Protective segment.

Answer

CEO Dustin Semach clarified that the two closures are part of network optimization within Protective and are about consolidating production to improve cost position, not eliminating product lines. He explained that while there's always potential for more optimization, decisions are thoughtful and aim to avoid exiting a metropolitan market with long-term growth potential due to short-term challenges. The current focus is on improving commercial execution to put more volume back into the existing footprint.

Matthew Roberts asked for specifics on how Sealed Air's fiber products compare to peers, what is in the new product pipeline, the commercialization timeline, and the required investment level.

Answer

CEO Patrick Kivits explained that for mailers, the focus is on improving the perception and reality of protection, with new prototypes currently being launched. For void-fill, the change is more tied to automation. He noted that the capital investment for these fiber-based solutions is less intensive than in their Food business and that the mailer products will be commercialized faster than the automation-linked void-fill solutions.

Matthew Roberts asked for color on second-half volume expectations given recent trends, and also inquired about the path to flat pricing and the specifics of the 2025 cash tax benefit.

Answer

CEO Michael Doss characterized the near-term outlook with the word 'uncertainty' due to customer struggles, making them cautious on precise volume calls for the second half. He discussed market dynamics, noting recycled and unbleached paperboard markets are balanced while bleached is oversupplied. EVP & CFO Stephen Scherger confirmed the 2026 free cash flow guidance already incorporates some positive benefits from recent tax legislation.

Matthew Roberts requested a more detailed breakdown of the non-fiber input cost inflation buckets and asked about the new share repurchase authorization, specifically regarding any leverage limits or spending hurdles before execution.

Answer

CFO Stephen Scherger explained that the Q1 inflation was broad-based across energy, chemicals, logistics, and external paper, while fiber costs were favorable. Regarding capital allocation, Scherger noted the year-end leverage target was raised to just under 3.5x to provide optionality for opportunistic share repurchases this year. CEO Michael Doss reinforced this, stating the focus has shifted from major investments to returning capital to shareholders.

Matthew Roberts sought more detail on the transition away from open market and index-based contracts, asking about the timing of benefits. He also asked about market share trends in the unbleached side of the business.

Answer

EVP and CFO Stephen Scherger described the move away from index pricing as a gradual journey with high customer receptivity, focused on being compensated appropriately for value. President and CEO Michael Doss pointed to the company's strong and stable margins as evidence of this strategy's success. Doss also emphasized that the unbleached paperboard business has performed well due to high integration and a strong cost position.

Matthew Roberts from Mizuho Securities inquired about the bridge to the 2025 sales guidance, asking for details on volume expectations, innovation sales, and the impact of new pricing mechanisms. He also questioned how the competitive landscape is shifting between bleached, unbleached, and recycled paperboard products and the resulting impact on margins and returns.

Answer

CFO Steve Scherger explained the 2025 top-line growth is based on a starting point of ~$8.8 billion, driven by a couple hundred basis points from innovation and a market evolving towards flat or modest growth. CEO Mike Doss added that the transition away from third-party pricing indexes is an ongoing, multiyear journey and not expected to have a material impact in 2025 due to the small portion of open market sales. Doss also emphasized the company's strategic focus on competitively advantaged grades like coated unbleached and recycled paperboard, where they are the low-cost producer, which supports strong, stable margins.

Matthew Roberts requested quantification of changes to the guidance bridge, particularly from URB pricing and FX. He also asked about performance and buyer appetite for the ThermoSafe business and the potential pro-forma leverage after its sale.

Answer

Interim CFO Jerry Cheatham quantified the URB impact as a $6M annualized benefit per $10/ton move and noted the H2 guidance assumes a EUR/USD rate of $1.17-$1.18. President and CEO Howard Coker confirmed the ThermoSafe sale process is progressing with an expected signing by year-end, driven by strong performance, but declined to speculate on proceeds or leverage impact.

Matthew Roberts asked for clarification on Sonoco's net adjusted debt level post-divestiture, its year-end leverage target, and its expectations for OCC costs and the URB price increase.

Answer

Interim CFO Jerry Cheatham stated that net leverage is under 4x and the company is on track for its 3.0x to 3.3x target by the end of 2026. He noted OCC costs are now expected to average $90-$95 in the second half. President and CEO Howard Coker added that the URB price increase is seeing strong market realization and he expects indices to reflect this soon.

Matthew Roberts of Raymond James sought more clarity on Q1 EPS expectations, an update on the ThermoSafe divestiture timeline, and insights into volume trends for the 'All Other' business segment, while also asking about the company's leverage target.

Answer

CEO Howard Coker explained that due to numerous moving parts, including the TFP divestiture, the company is only providing full-year guidance. COO Rodger Fuller addressed ThermoSafe, noting that while Q4 volumes were soft due to an industry-wide slowdown, he is optimistic for 2025. Fuller confirmed the divestiture process is expected to conclude by year-end and is factored into the company's deleveraging plan.

Matthew Roberts asked about the drivers of Sonoco's strong productivity performance, its sustainability into Q4 and beyond, and how current gains impact long-term targets. He also sought more clarity on the divestiture timelines for ThermoSafe and TFP.

Answer

COO Rodger Fuller attributed the strong productivity to capital investments in optimization and automation made over the last 4-5 years, expressing confidence in the trend continuing. CFO Rob Dillard stated the ThermoSafe process is positioned for a mid-2025 close and that they expect a signed agreement for the TFP sale in about six weeks. CEO Howard Coker added that the ThermoSafe timing is also a matter of internal capacity to manage the deals sequentially.

Matthew Roberts of Raymond James Financial asked for details on the volume assumptions underpinning the raised guidance and whether there was any tariff-related demand front-running in April and May. He also sought more color on new business wins and growth drivers in the Polymer segment.

Answer

EVP & CFO Larry Hilsheimer clarified that the guidance raise reflects strong price/cost performance offset by a more bearish volume assumption, particularly in Fiber Solutions. CEO Ole Rosgaard stated they have not seen specific demand shifts tied to tariffs. For the Polymer segment, Rosgaard attributed growth to the company's strategic focus on resilient end markets like agrochemicals, food, and pharma, which are performing as expected and offsetting softness in industrial-facing large polymer drums.

Matthew Roberts asked for clarification on SG&A margin expectations for the upcoming quarters to avoid modeling errors. He also requested more details on the Soterra timberland sale, including a comparison to the 2021 sale and how the divestiture impacts the company's polymer mix goals.

Answer

CFO Lawrence Hilsheimer explained that the Q1 SG&A increase was driven by the IPACKCHEM acquisition and a reclassification of some costs from COGS, and he expects EBITDA margins to improve steadily through the year. CEO Ole Rosgaard stated that while they cannot comment on the timing or value of the timberland sale, they are confident in its value. He clarified the primary use of proceeds will be to pay down debt, which gives them more 'firepower,' and the sale is not directly linked to achieving a specific polymer mix. Hilsheimer added that factors like carbon credits have increased timberland values.

Matthew Roberts inquired about the potential for a high-end fiscal 2025 EBITDA scenario and asked about demand trends and competitive pricing in the polymer business, particularly concerning the new IBC plant in Malaysia.

Answer

CFO Larry Hilsheimer explained that a high-end range was not provided due to market uncertainty, but potential upsides include a recently announced containerboard price increase, the recovery of approximately $160 million in volume-related gains, and benefits from the new $100 million cost initiative. CEO Ole Rosgaard added that falling interest rates could boost housing sales, a key demand driver. On polymers, Rosgaard emphasized the focus on the premium agrochemical market, which offers margins above 18%, but declined to comment on specific plant performance.

Matthew Roberts asked about the margin contribution from Greif's strategic mix shift towards polymer-based products and inquired about long-term margin targets for that business. He also questioned where the price/cost dynamic for the paper business is tracking relative to guidance, considering recent movements in OCC and URB prices.

Answer

CEO Ole Rosgaard explained that M&A targets in the polymer space have accretive EBITDA margins at or above 18%, with some reaching the mid-20s, which will gradually lift the company's overall margin profile toward 18% long-term. CFO Larry Hilsheimer added that price/cost in Q3 was more favorable than anticipated due to the full recognition of paper price increases and strong value-based pricing in GIP. This tailwind, along with other cost benefits, helped offset slightly lower-than-expected volume recovery, leading the company to maintain its full-year guidance.

Matthew Roberts sought clarification on the flat volume expectation for Metal Containers in Q2, including the split between pet and food cans. He also asked about the overall promotional environment and its impact on categories like pet food.

Answer

CEO Adam Greenlee explained that the flat Q2 volume forecast for Metal Containers is due to a difficult comparison to a strong prior-year quarter in soup and a potential minor pull-forward of pet food volume into Q1. He confirmed that strong promotional activity from both customers and retailers continues to drive volume in the wet pet food segment, and noted that targeted promotions are proving effective across other product lines as well.

Matthew Roberts asked for additional color on the 2025 adjusted EBIT expectations by segment, including margin considerations for Metal Containers, and inquired about the M&A strategy post-Weener, including target markets, deal size, and plans for maturing Eurobonds.

Answer

CEO Adam Greenlee detailed segment growth drivers, including mix enhancement in DSC and new business wins in Custom Containers. EVP Corporate Development Bob Lewis confirmed that Silgan is actively pursuing M&A, with the balance sheet supporting near-term opportunities. CFO Kimberly Ulmer stated the company would be opportunistic regarding the maturing bonds, noting available capacity under their revolver.

Matthew Roberts asked about volume trends and the outlook for prestige fragrance products and inquired about Silgan's long-term strategy and opportunities in the healthcare market following the Weener acquisition.

Answer

President and CEO Adam Greenlee reported continued double-digit growth in the high-end fragrance and beauty segment, driven by innovation and service, noting Silgan's focus on the prestige level rather than the mass market. Regarding healthcare, he highlighted the combined $200 million revenue base and opportunities to leverage their innovation platform beyond the current focus on ophthalmic and nasal applications. An executive added that healthcare growth has been a structured part of their M&A strategy, focusing on niche acquisitions.