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Mauricio Cepeda

Research Analyst at Banco BTG Pactual S.A.

Mauricio Cepeda is an equity research analyst with sector expertise in consumer staples and healthcare, covering companies such as Afya Limited, Vasta Platform, and Auna S.A. He has tracked these firms through multiple ratings and price targets, with recent public records indicating a focus on education and healthcare service providers operating in Latin America. Cepeda has worked at both Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, starting at Credit Suisse before moving to Morgan Stanley, where his public analyst performance has included a 20–40% success rate and average returns between -8.8% and -10.9%. His professional credentials include active coverage reflected on major market platforms, though there is no confirmed evidence of FINRA registration or specific securities licenses in the retrieved data.

Mauricio Cepeda's questions to AUNA (AUNA) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Mauricio Cepeda asked about Auna's rationale for expanding in Mexico with the Sojitz MOU, how it aligns with deleveraging goals and ramping up operations, and whether a potential change in Colombia's leadership could ease pressures on EPSs or if deeper structural issues persist.

Answer

Suso Zamora, Executive Chairman and President, Auna, explained that the Sojitz MOU formalizes a co-investment framework to accelerate growth in Mexico while maintaining leverage targets below 3x, given current balance sheet limitations and depressed share price. He noted that Sojitz appreciates Auna's integrated model. Regarding Colombia, he anticipates political delays for meaningful change until late 2026 or 2027, but highlighted Auna's strong positioning, preferred provider status, and continued profitable growth despite market uncertainties. Gisele Remy, CFO and Executive Vice President, Auna, added that Auna remains constructive on Colombia, has reduced exposure to Nueva EPS, and views the government's direct stake in the payer as a positive sign.

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Question · Q3 2025

Mauricio Cepeda asked about Auna's future strategy for Mexico, specifically the rationale for expanding soon with the Sojitz MOU, and how this aligns with deleveraging goals and ramping up operations. He also inquired about the potential impact of a change in Colombia's leadership on EPS pressures and whether deeper structural issues might limit improvement.

Answer

Suso Zamora, Executive Chairman and President, explained that the Sojitz MOU formalizes a co-investment framework to accelerate growth in Mexico, allowing Auna to capture opportunities while maintaining leverage targets below 3x, given current balance sheet and share price limitations. He noted that the political environment in Colombia might delay significant changes to EPS pressures until late 2026 or 2027, but Auna's preferred provider status ensures attractive returns and growth despite uncertainties. Gisele Remy, CFO and Executive Vice President, added that Auna remains constructive on Colombia, having successfully managed external headwinds and materially reduced exposure to Nueva EPS, with the government's direct stake in the payer being a positive sign. Suso Zamora further clarified that the Sojitz partnership is critical for acting on Auna's attractive pipeline in Mexico, and it's not limited to new opportunities but aims to push overall Auna growth, particularly in Mexico.

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Question · Q1 2025

Mauricio Cepeda asked about the timing and rationale for the physician and supplier transition in Mexico and requested an update on the progress of risk-sharing agreements in Colombia.

Answer

Executive Chairman and President Jesús Zamora Leon clarified that the changes in Mexico are a core part of implementing the 'AunaWay' model to improve predictability and control, not a 'cleanup'. He acknowledged underestimating the economic impact on physicians but noted volumes are recovering. For Colombia, he stated that risk-sharing models now account for approximately 20% of revenue, up from 15% last year, with a target of 30% by year-end.

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Question · Q4 2024

Mauricio Cepeda asked about the typical quarterly seasonality in Mexico and Peru, and Auna's strategy for demand growth in Monterrey, specifically regarding market share gains versus expanding the insured population.

Answer

Executive Chairman and President Suso Zamora explained that procedure volumes are typically slower at the year-end and beginning of the year, with Mexico seeing more pronounced growth in the second half. He emphasized a strategy in Monterrey focused on partnering with insurers and employers to expand the market and conquer high-complexity share. CFO and EVP Gisele Remy reiterated that softer volumes in Q4 and Q1 are common due to holidays and deferred elective procedures.

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Question · Q3 2024

Mauricio Cepeda inquired about Auna's working capital management, specifically the sustainability of using supplier financing to offset rising accounts receivables from Colombia, and whether the recent provision for doubtful accounts is a one-time catch-up or a new run rate.

Answer

Jesús Zamora Leon, Executive Chairman and President, explained that the working capital balance is characteristic of the Colombian market and the situation is transitory, though the company is taking a conservative provisioning stance. Gisele Ferrero, CFO and Executive Vice President, added that the provisioning reflects a more conservative expected loss model for intervened entities and that the company utilizes credit facilities for factoring, which is reflected in accounts payable.

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Mauricio Cepeda's questions to Afya (AFYA) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Mauricio Cepeda requested clarification on the new minimum tax under OECD Pillar 2 rules, including why Afya was classified as a multinational company. He also asked about the company's preparations for the SoftBank convertible debt, which is approaching its early redemption date.

Answer

CFO Luis Andre Blanco explained that the Pillar 2 tax law applies to multinational groups with over €750 million in revenue, a category Afya falls into. He stated the company has provisioned for the tax (payable in July 2026) as a conservative measure while it legally challenges the tax's constitutionality. Regarding the SoftBank debt, Blanco confirmed the May 2026 early redemption option and noted that Afya began provisioning for the associated premium in 2024 and is prepared with its cash flow to pay the instrument if the redemption is exercised.

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Mauricio Cepeda's questions to LAUREATE EDUCATION (LAUR) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Mauricio Cepeda asked for clarification on the enrollment intake timing shift, questioning if growth was simply due to adding April's results, and also asked why the company used a past FX rate for guidance instead of the more favorable current rate.

Answer

Richard Buskirk, CFO, explained the enrollment normalization was due to a two-week delay in Peru's academic calendar start, not other adjustments. Eilif Serck-Hanssen, CEO, added this aligns better with market norms. Regarding FX, Buskirk stated that due to significant volatility, they prudently maintained the MXN 20.50 rate from their February guidance rather than using the more recent, but volatile, spot rate.

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