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    Mauricio Serna

    Research Analyst at UBS Group AG

    Mauricio Serna is an Executive Director and Senior Stock Analyst at UBS Group AG, specializing in US retailing—covering department stores and specialty softlines. He closely follows companies such as Dillard's, Oxford Industries, Signet Jewelers, Victoria's Secret & Co., Guess?, Abercrombie & Fitch, and The Buckle, with 140 public price targets on 8 stocks and a documented price target met ratio of 53.83%. Though his average returns stand at -2.71% and success rates at around 41%, his forecasts have achieved notable short-term upsides, such as a 3.86% gain on Oxford Industries in 1 day. Serna began issuing public stock recommendations as early as 2022 and brings expertise from previous equity analyst roles, holding professional credentials likely including FINRA registrations and relevant securities licenses.

    Mauricio Serna's questions to SIGNET JEWELERS (SIG) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to SIGNET JEWELERS (SIG) leadership • Q2 2026

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS Group asked for more detail on the quarter-to-date performance in Q3, comparing it to the strong results seen in July. He also sought clarification on the specific tariff assumptions underpinning the high and low ends of the updated full-year operating income guidance.

    Answer

    Chief Operating & Financial Officer Joan Hilson stated that the positive comp trend from July has been fairly consistent into August, though she noted some pricing resets and cool-downs will occur in Q3. Regarding guidance, Hilson clarified that the middle-to-lower end of the EBIT range assumes the 50% Russian penalty on Indian imports remains, while the upper half assumes the penalty is removed, reverting the tariff to 25%.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to SIGNET JEWELERS (SIG) leadership • Q1 2026

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS Group AG requested details on the current lab-grown diamond penetration, confirmation of quarter-to-date sales trends, clarification on the two-year stack guidance, and the outlook for full-year gross margin leverage.

    Answer

    CFO Joan Hilson confirmed that lab-grown diamond (LGD) penetration is now approximately 20% of the business, up five points year-over-year, largely driven by fashion. She stated that quarter-to-date performance was near or above the high end of the Q2 guidance range. She clarified that the full-year guidance provides flexibility, with the low end reflecting a two-year stack consistent with Q2. For gross margin, she expects continued expansion for the full year, with leverage achievable on a slightly positive comp.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/ (ANF) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/ (ANF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna of UBS Group AG asked for clarification on Abercrombie's 'third-party channel headwinds,' any quarter-to-date signs of improvement for the brand, and a more detailed breakdown of the Q2 gross margin decline.

    Answer

    CEO & Director Fran Horowitz expressed confidence in Abercrombie's trajectory, citing a strong start to Q3 driven by a successful denim event and emerging trends. SVP & CFO Robert Ball clarified the third-party headwind was minor and related to order timing. He attributed the Q2 gross margin decline to AUR pressure from clearing inventory and a $5M tariff impact, noting freight costs had normalized as expected.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/ (ANF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna requested a breakdown of the Q1 gross margin decline between carryover inventory and freight costs, the outlook for inventory growth, and how Hollister plans to sustain growth in the second half against tougher comparisons. He also asked for more color on Q2 gross margin evolution.

    Answer

    CFO Robert Ball explained that freight pressure accounted for more than half of the Q1 gross margin decline, with carryover pressure making up the balance. He expects inventory units to align with sales growth going forward. CEO Fran Horowitz addressed Hollister's growth, citing its evolution to be more culturally relevant and its focus on key life moments for teens. For Q2 gross margin, Ball guided for sequential improvement from Q1 as freight and carryover pressures are expected to lessen.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/ (ANF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Mauricio Serna asked about Q4 promotional activity, the components of the Q4 gross margin change, the plan for store openings by region and brand, and whether Abercrombie's growth would come from comps or new stores.

    Answer

    CFO Robert Ball explained that while promos were pulled back for much of Q4, higher freight costs offset AUR gains. He noted January was more promotional to clear seasonal inventory. For 2025, the company will be a net store opener again, with a slight lean towards EMEA and the A&F brand. COO Scott Lipesky added that the goal is always to drive positive comp sales, with new stores and future third-party partnerships providing additional layers of growth.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO /DE/ (ANF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna asked for a breakdown of the Q1 gross margin decline between freight and inventory pressure, the inventory growth outlook, and the strategy for sustaining Hollister's growth against tougher second-half comparisons.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Robert Ball stated that freight accounted for 'more than half' of the 440 basis point gross margin decline in Q1, with carryover pressure making up the balance. CEO Fran Horowitz attributed Hollister's momentum to its cultural relevance and expressed confidence in future initiatives. Ball emphasized the goal is to grow the total company portfolio, not just one brand.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to Kontoor Brands (KTB) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to Kontoor Brands (KTB) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS asked for details on the cadence of second-half revenue growth, particularly the drivers behind the Q4 acceleration. He also requested more information on the Lee brand's distribution opportunities and the specific actions being taken to improve the business in the APAC region. Lastly, he asked about tariff mitigation strategies, including production shifts and the market reaction to price increases.

    Answer

    EVP, CFO & Global Head of Operations, Joe Alkire, explained that the Q4 revenue acceleration is driven by the inclusion of a 53rd week and the fact that Helly Hansen's business is seasonally weighted toward the fourth quarter. President, CEO and Chair, Scott Baxter, and Alkire added that actions for Lee in APAC involve improving inventory and strengthening the retailer base to establish a stronger foundation for growth. Regarding tariffs, Alkire noted mitigation is a holistic strategy involving production moves, supplier partnerships, and pricing, while Baxter emphasized that the brands' stronger competitive positions enable strategic pricing actions.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE INC /DE/ (WWW) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE INC /DE/ (WWW) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS asked for observations on consumer reactions to recent price increases and the progress of the turnaround at brands like Merrell and Sweaty Betty. He also sought clarity on the quarterly timing of the estimated $20 million tariff impact.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Hufnagel stated it was too early to judge consumer reaction to price increases but noted wholesale partners expected them. He highlighted that Merrell is already demonstrating strong growth and that both the Work Group and Sweaty Betty showed sequential improvement. CFO Taryn Miller clarified that the majority of the tariff impact is expected to hit in Q4, as it will be the first full quarter with the higher rates.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR (COLM) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR (COLM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna inquired about the underlying growth in the 2025 order book, the factors driving the U.S. DTC deceleration (promotional strategy vs. consumer pressure), and the rationale for the implied revenue deceleration from Q3 to Q4 in the guidance.

    Answer

    Chairman, President & CEO Tim Boyle explained that the U.S. DTC comparison is difficult due to heavy liquidation of PFAS inventory in the prior year and expressed optimism for improvement driven by new marketing and a revamped website. He attributed the cautious Q4 outlook to the anticipated negative impact of tariff-related price increases on consumer sentiment and spending, which are expected to manifest late in Q3 and into Q4.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to OXFORD INDUSTRIES (OXM) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to OXFORD INDUSTRIES (OXM) leadership • Q1 2026

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS requested clarification on the updated $40 million tariff impact, asking if it represented a gross or net figure, and inquired about the timeline for the company's mitigation strategies to take effect.

    Answer

    CFO and COO Scott Grassmyer clarified that the $40 million is the gross impact, up from a $9-10 million estimate, due to newly implemented tariffs. He detailed the mitigation plan, stating that while little could be done for the Spring/Summer 2025 seasons, the company expects to be fully mitigated by Spring 2026 by significantly reducing its sourcing from China to below 10%.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to OXFORD INDUSTRIES (OXM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna of UBS Group AG requested clarification on the updated $40 million tariff impact, asking if this was a gross or net figure and about the timeline for mitigation strategies to take effect in operations.

    Answer

    EVP, CFO & COO Scott Grassmyer clarified that the $40 million is the gross impact, an increase from the prior $9-10 million estimate due to newly implemented tariffs. He explained that mitigation efforts, such as sourcing shifts and select price increases, will not fully impact the current year's largest seasons but are expected to fully mitigate the tariff impact by spring 2026 as the company reduces its China sourcing from 40% to below 10%.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to Victoria's Secret & (VSCO) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to Victoria's Secret & (VSCO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS Group AG asked about quarter-to-date sales trends, excluding the impact of the recent security incident, and sought clarification on the drivers of the Q1 gross margin miss relative to guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Hillary Super confirmed that the positive sales trajectory seen in March and April continued into May, indicating solid underlying business momentum. CFO Scott Sekella attributed the gross margin miss versus expectations to an unexpected raw material write-off related to tariff-driven resourcing and a strategic decision to amplify 'gift with purchase' promotions more than originally planned.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to Designer Brands (DBI) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to Designer Brands (DBI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS asked about quarter-to-date business trends, the expected impact of tariffs in Q2, revenue expectations for the Topo brand in 2025, and the specific performance of the athletic and athleisure category.

    Answer

    CEO Doug Howe stated that Q2 trends are similar to the end of Q1 and that the primary tariff impact is indirect, affecting consumer sentiment. While not providing a specific revenue target for Topo, he highlighted its 84% growth. He confirmed the athletic category outperformed the broader assortment, with DSW gaining market share and the top eight brands (mostly athletic) posting a flat comp for the quarter.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/ (GIII) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/ (GIII) leadership • Q1 2026

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS Group AG asked for quantification of the Q2 revenue timing shift and its distribution between Q3 and Q4. He also sought clarity on the expected mitigation of the $135 million potential tariff impact and whether a similar impact should be anticipated for the first half of the next fiscal year.

    Answer

    CFO Neal Nackman attributed approximately $30 million of the Q2 revenue decline to supply chain disruptions from tariff uncertainty, with the remainder being sales shifts into both Q3 and Q4. Chairman & CEO Morris Goldfarb added that the Hudson Bay bankruptcy and Sonia Rykiel launch cancellation also contributed. Regarding tariffs, Nackman described the mitigation process as fluid and ongoing, involving negotiations with retailers and vendors, and thus declined to specify a bottom-line impact. He noted that for future seasons, higher costs can be incorporated into upfront pricing.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/ (GIII) leadership • Q1 2026

    Question

    Mauricio Serna from UBS Group AG asked for clarification on the size of the Q2 revenue timing shift and its distribution into Q3 and Q4. He also questioned how much of the $135 million potential tariff impact G-III expects to mitigate and if a similar impact is anticipated for the first half of the next fiscal year.

    Answer

    CFO Neal Nackman stated that approximately $30 million, or half of the Q2 revenue shortfall, is due to supply chain disruptions from tariffs, with the remainder being sales shifting into both Q3 and Q4. CEO Morris Goldfarb added that the Hudson Bay bankruptcy and Sonia Rykiel postponement also contributed. Regarding tariffs, Nackman described the mitigation process as fluid and ongoing, making it difficult to quantify the final impact, but noted that for future seasons, higher costs can be built into upfront pricing. He also confirmed the full-year sales guide was maintained due to strength in the rest of the brand portfolio.

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    Mauricio Serna's questions to GUESS (GES) leadership

    Mauricio Serna's questions to GUESS (GES) leadership • Q1 2026

    Question

    Mauricio Serna of UBS Group inquired about the organic growth expectations for the Rag & Bone brand, the performance trajectory for the Americas retail business, and the potential for operating margin expansion in the second half of the year.

    Answer

    CEO & Director Carlos Alberini expressed strong satisfaction with Rag & Bone's performance, citing growth from new stores, expanded product categories, and a robust wholesale business, projecting revenues to exceed $320 million. For Americas Retail, he noted that despite traffic headwinds, improved product assortment and execution are leading to better conversion and positive signs. Interim CFO Dennis Secor detailed that the year's growth has an 'inverted bell curve' shape, with operating margin compression expected through Q3 but with an opportunity for leverage and improvement in Q4, driven significantly by a favorable currency tailwind.

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