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    Max Andrew Gumport

    Vice President and Senior Equity Analyst at BNP Paribas

    Max Andrew Gumport is a Vice President and Senior Equity Analyst at BNP Paribas Exane, specializing in research on US consumer staples with a primary focus on packaged foods and confectionery companies. He actively covers major firms including The J.M. Smucker Company, McCormick & Company, Campbell Soup Company, Mondelez International, and Kellanova, and has issued 18 stock ratings to date with a success rate of 60% and an average return of 6.08%. Gumport holds a ranking of 4847 among Wall Street analysts on TipRanks, reflecting a balanced distribution of buy, hold, and sell recommendations in his performance record. He joined BNP Paribas Exane prior to 2022 and is a FINRA-registered representative, holding the necessary securities licenses to conduct equity research and make public investment recommendations.

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to FLOWERS FOODS (FLO) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to FLOWERS FOODS (FLO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport of BNP Paribas questioned the company's increased promotional activity for differentiated brands and its potential impact on price/mix. He also asked about the strategy to revive the bread category amidst structural headwinds like healthier eating trends.

    Answer

    CEO Ryals McMullian clarified that increased promotional activity was selective, targeted at differentiated offerings like Dave's Killer Bread, and primarily used to drive trial. He reiterated that heavy promotion devalues brands. To address health trends, McMullian pointed to the company's strong health and wellness portfolio (DKB, Canyon Bakehouse, Keto, Simple Mills) and mentioned plans to innovate within traditional loaf segments.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to HERSHEY (HSY) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to HERSHEY (HSY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport asked if the guidance implied a more optimistic view of the base business pre-tariffs and questioned if changing consumer preferences toward healthier eating were impacting snacking.

    Answer

    SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil clarified that any perceived change in the base business outlook was due to rounding. CEO Michele Buck stated that while the consumer is weaker, Hershey's categories are holding up well, attributing this to chocolate's emotional role and strong elasticity performance.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to Oatly Group (OTLY) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to Oatly Group (OTLY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport asked about the company's confidence that its European marketing playbook could lift the soft U.S. oat milk category, given it hasn't yet lifted the overall category in Europe. He also requested an update on the full-year gross margin outlook following the strong Q1 performance.

    Answer

    Daniel Ordonez, Global President and COO, addressed the European strategy, noting Oatly's outperformance versus competitors and traction in expansion markets. He remained conservative on turning around overall category momentum quickly but highlighted significant distribution opportunities in the U.S. as a key growth lever. CFO Marie-Jose David added that while not providing specific guidance, the full-year gross margin is expected to improve from 2024's 28.7% as the company progresses toward its long-term 35-40% target, driven by supply chain optimization and mix management.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to Oatly Group (OTLY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Alex Hilsenrath, on behalf of Max Andrew Gumport of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, questioned the drivers behind the implied Q4 revenue growth slowdown and the potential exit rate for 2025. He also asked about any obstacles to achieving positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025, given the recent profitability improvements across all segments.

    Answer

    CEO Jean-Christophe Flatin attributed the revised revenue outlook primarily to recent category sluggishness in Europe, particularly the UK, emphasizing a focus on 'controlling the controllables' through targeted advertising. Regarding 2025 profitability, Flatin reiterated the company's commitment to profitable growth, highlighting structural progress in gross margin and SG&A. CFO Marie-Jose David added that while a full 2025 outlook is pending, the company will build on its current momentum, noting that Greater China will anniversary a large LTO in Q2 and that CapEx will focus on efficiency and safety projects.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport from BNP Paribas sought more detail on the drivers of weakening QSR traffic, particularly for hamburgers, and how this trend informs the company's future demand forecasting.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Smith pointed to broad macroeconomic pressures and consumer uncertainty as the primary drivers of weak QSR traffic. He explained that Lamb Weston is adjusting its sourcing and production in response but is maintaining the flexibility to increase output if market conditions improve.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport questioned why the normalized adjusted EBITDA margin would not be higher than the 19-20% guided for the second half, given that current earnings are described as "temporarily depressed" and cost-cutting benefits are still to come.

    Answer

    CFO Bernadette Madarieta responded that while cost initiatives are underway, the company expects competitive and operational pressures to persist in the short to medium term. She indicated that the 19-20% margin range reflects this challenging environment and that they will provide updates as improvement plans become more robust and deliver results.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to CONAGRA BRANDS (CAG) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to CONAGRA BRANDS (CAG) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport asked for color on why Conagra's snacking business is outperforming the broader industry, which is seeing pressure, highlighting the segment's 4% volume growth in the quarter.

    Answer

    CEO Sean Connolly attributed the outperformance to the portfolio's strategic concentration in on-trend, protein-dense subcategories like meat snacks and fiber-rich popcorn, which are gaining traction over traditional snacks. He noted that while Swiss Miss timing boosted the Q3 number, the underlying performance of core snack brands is very strong, and highlighted the successful integration of the new FATTY Smoked Meat Sticks acquisition.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to GENERAL MILLS (GIS) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to GENERAL MILLS (GIS) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport asked for more color on the unexpected retailer inventory headwinds in North America, questioning if it was an industry-wide issue and what informs the view that it will not materially impact Q4.

    Answer

    CEO Jeffrey Harmening clarified that the inventory drawdown was specific to the Pet segment, which has historically been more volatile, and resulted in a 5-point drag on Pet's quarterly results. He expressed confidence that there would not be another material drawdown because retailer inventory levels for the year are now approximately flat, indicating they are no longer in an overstocked position.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to GENERAL MILLS (GIS) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport asked for more color on the unexpected retailer inventory headwinds in North America, questioning if it was an industry-wide issue or specific to General Mills, and what supports the view that it won't recur in Q4.

    Answer

    CEO Jeffrey Harmening specified the inventory drawdown was concentrated in the Pet segment, which has historically been more volatile. The headwind represented a 5-point drag on Pet's results for the quarter. He expressed confidence that there would not be another material change in Q4 because retailer inventory levels for the segment are now approximately flat for the fiscal year-to-date.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to J M SMUCKER (SJM) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to J M SMUCKER (SJM) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport asked for an explanation of the better-than-expected coffee segment profit margin in Q3. He also pressed for more detail on the drivers of the $1 billion Hostess impairment charge, questioning how a short-term sales cut could lead to such a large write-down.

    Answer

    CFO Tucker Marshall attributed the strong Q3 coffee margin to better-than-expected price elasticities, volume/mix, and cost management, but warned it would decline in Q4 due to higher input costs. Regarding the Hostess impairment, he explained it was driven by the diminished top-line performance impacting profit projections, as the company does not expect to recover that lost sales base before resuming growth.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to J M SMUCKER (SJM) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport asked for the reason behind the coffee segment's much higher-than-expected 28% profit margin in Q3. He also pressed for more detail on the $1 billion Hostess impairment, suggesting it must reflect a change in long-term cash flow expectations.

    Answer

    CFO Tucker Marshall attributed the strong Q3 coffee margin to better-than-expected price elasticities, favorable volume/mix, and effective cost management, but warned it will decline in Q4. Regarding the impairment, he explained it was driven by the lower top-line performance impacting profit. He clarified the company is not expecting to recover the lost sales base and will grow from this new, lower base, which negatively impacts the long-term discounted cash flow valuation.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to J M SMUCKER (SJM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport questioned the sharp deceleration in coffee sales from +3% in Q2 to a flat outlook for Q3, and asked about the competitive drivers behind the decision to cut prices for Meow Mix and increase trade spend.

    Answer

    CFO Tucker Marshall clarified that the 'flat' coffee sales outlook was specific to Q3, with growth expected to return in Q4 as the company monitors elasticity from its recent price increase. He added that for Meow Mix, the company was able to restore promotional activity because supply and inventory levels for the brand have been fully restored, enabling more aggressive marketing.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to J M SMUCKER (SJM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport sought clarification on the coffee sales outlook, questioning the shift from 3% growth to a flat forecast in Q3. He also asked about the competitive drivers behind the price cut for Meow Mix and higher trade spend in pet.

    Answer

    CFO Tucker Marshall clarified that his comment on flat coffee sales was specific to the third quarter, with growth expected to return in the fourth quarter as the company monitors elasticity from its second pricing round. Regarding pet, Marshall noted that the Meow Mix brand is a highlight, and the company was able to restore promotional activity as it became fully back in stock, while also continuing to drive innovation across the portfolio.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to Mondelez International (MDLZ) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to Mondelez International (MDLZ) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport requested more specific detail on the magnitude of the 2025 supply chain productivity program. He also asked for the company's view on whether a consumer shift toward health and wellness or the use of GLP-1 drugs is creating a headwind for the broader snacking category in the U.S.

    Answer

    CEO Dirk Van de Put clarified that the company is targeting its typical 4% gross productivity from the supply chain in 2025, a level it aims to achieve after finding it difficult in recent years. He stated that Mondelez has not observed any negative impact on snacking consumption from health and wellness trends or GLP-1 drugs, noting that indulgent snacking has remained as strong as healthy snacking since the pandemic.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to HORMEL FOODS CORP /DE/ (HRL) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to HORMEL FOODS CORP /DE/ (HRL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Max Gumport questioned the path to achieving the reaffirmed $250 million of expanded operating income by 2026, suggesting the math implies a very large step-up in FY26 that seems difficult to bridge with the known T&M and base business growth targets.

    Answer

    CFO Jacinth Smiley clarified that the $250 million target is a net number, after accounting for reinvestments and inflation, implying the gross benefits from initiatives are larger. CEO Jim Snee and VP of Corporate Development Nathan Annis emphasized that the T&M initiative is building capabilities and accelerating into 2026, with projects like enterprise-wide RFPs, full implementation of the Hormel Production System, and an optimized logistics network setting the stage for continued value creation beyond initial estimates.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to WK Kellogg (KLG) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to WK Kellogg (KLG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport questioned why the cereal category is not showing stronger performance, given its value proposition in an environment where consumers are seeking affordability.

    Answer

    Gary Pilnick, Chairman and CEO, agreed that cereal should benefit from value-seeking behavior and noted that the company's PPA strategy is bringing some consumers back to the category. He suggested this PPA work, which can impact volume metrics, is a factor in the category's performance. He concluded that the category remains a stable backdrop for the company to deliver on its financial commitments.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport questioned the implied Q4 step-back in Flavor Solutions margin after a very strong Q3, asking for clarification on the drivers. He also requested an update on the U.S. hot sauce category, competitive pressures, and the performance of McCormick's new trial-sized offerings.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Mike Smith explained the Q4 margin outlook reflects a more normalized mix compared to Q3 and the impact of supply chain investments. On hot sauce, President and CEO Brendan Foley acknowledged pressure from a competitor lapping supply chain issues and a surge in trial-size units. He noted McCormick's own mini-trial sizes are performing well, driving trial of new flavors, and expressed confidence that innovation and marketing would improve trends.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to KELLANOVA (K) leadership

    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to KELLANOVA (K) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Max Gumport followed up on competitive spending, asking why Kellanova's business does not seem to require more price investment, especially when competitors and retailers are emphasizing the need to give value back to the consumer.

    Answer

    Steven Cahillane, Chairman, President and CEO, pointed directly to the company's strong Q2 results and raised full-year guidance as proof that their current strategy is effective. He expressed high confidence in their innovation pipeline, brand-building returns, and geographic portfolio, stating that they do not feel they are "missing anything" or need to alter their pricing strategy.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to KELLANOVA (K) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Max Andrew Gumport of BNP Paribas sought clarification on the financial impact of the Transition Services Agreement (TSA) on gross profit and EBIT. He also inquired about the observed shift in consumer behavior from dining out to eating at home.

    Answer

    Vice Chairman and CFO Amit Banati confirmed the TSA reimbursement benefit was approximately $45 million at the operating profit line and noted it would decrease through 2024 as services transition to W.K. Kellogg Co. Chairman, President and CEO Steven Cahillane added that value-seeking behavior is evident, with consumers eating out less, but he expects this pressure to abate in the second half of the year.

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    Max Andrew Gumport's questions to KELLANOVA (K) leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    Sought clarification on whether the regional guidance algorithm applied to sales, asked for drivers of the North American sales growth forecast, and questioned the sustainability of the strong EMEA shipment volume.

    Answer

    The long-term algorithm guidance applies to organic net sales as well as operating profit. North America is expected to see low single-digit growth driven by a return to innovation and merchandising. The strong EMEA volume was driven by noodle business expansion and customers in Nigeria ordering ahead of price increases, the timing of which is hard to predict for an unwind.

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